PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 11-04-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Higher Ground, But For How Long? Watch List: BRL, CTXS, GAS, HON, NUE, PLXS, and more... Play of the Day: Here We Go Again... ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** 11-04-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decl DJIA 8571.60 + 53.96 8730.64 8521.60 1972 mln 1336/621 NASDAQ 1396.54 + 35.84 1320.25 1279.46 2358 mln 1917/405 S&P 100 462.26 + 4.10 470.58 458.16 totals 3253/1026 S&P 500 908.35 + 7.39 924.58 900.96 RUS 2000 386.97 + 6.29 391.34 383.45 DJ TRANS 2333.84 + 18.16 2372.41 2318.47 VIX 34.47 + 0.49 34.85 32.45 VIXN 49.22 - 0.64 49.64 46.96 Put/Call Ratio 0.73 ****************************************************************** =========== Market Wrap =========== Higher Ground, But For How Long? by Steven Price I can hear the bulls screaming "I told you so!" It's tough to argue with them after the Dow has pasted on 1400 points in 3 1/2 weeks. However, why do we keep reading about more spending cuts, low demand and declining revenues? Because businesses have yet to increase spending budgets, and demand is still soft. While the market is going up, it is awfully hard to jump on for anything more than the short term. We did, in fact, cross some significant resistance today, but ran smack into more. The Dow jumped over 200 points intraday, following Microsoft up $4.25 at one point. However, the rally collapsed toward the close, with the blue chips finishing up 53.96 on the day. On a macro scale, the recent Dow rally began October 10, pulled back, found support at the 50-dma, and then took off to higher ground. When I see a stock with this type of chart, I think "long play." So why am I not singing the praises of long term calls? It doesn't take a genius to understand that when companies reduce spending, workers lose jobs and suppliers don't see much income. When suppliers see reduced income, they let employees go. When consumers lose jobs, they don't go shopping as often. When they don't shop, stores don't sell, and don't need as many employees. Consumer spending makes up 2/3 of GDP... By now you get the point. I certainly don't want to rain on the parade. Those traders who have played long for the last few weeks have a nice profit and should be aware of the big picture heading into the next couple of days. The elections on Tuesday bring with them the possibility of republicans taking control of the Senate. This is seen as bullish for the market, as republicans are generally more sympathetic to big business. Following the elections is Wednesday's FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected by many investors to lower the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, to 1.5%. The December Fed Fund futures are pegged at 1.395%, not only predicting one cut of 25 points, but possibly an additional cut before year's end. Certainly both of these developments could be positive for the market; however, it seems there is still plenty of work to do before the overall business environment sees significant improvement. Let's start with a look at what we've accomplished so far. The Dow bottomed on October 9 at 7197, before catching fire and blasting its way to current levels. Once it got through 8000, it was straight up to resistance at 8300 and then consolidation between 8200 and 8550. A look back at the old head and shoulders formation between July and September gives us a good picture of recent resistance levels and has been fairly reliable. If the index can break through 8750, where it stalled out today (high of 8730), then 9000 appears to be the next step. Certainly it does us no good to be bearish the whole way up, so jumping on for the moves between levels and then reducing as we get close to resistance or support seems to be the best strategy. Right now the rally stalled below resistance and landed above support at 8550, so that is the current range. This corresponds to support of 900 in the SPX, which formerly served as resistance. However, with the events of the next two days, it is likely we will test those bounds. The wild card in all of this is pegging just how much effect we are seeing from the aforementioned events on Tuesday and Wednesday. Chart of the Dow Why all the hoopla over the rate cut? There are several reasons. First, lower rates make business investment cheaper. If a business can borrow at a lower rate, it makes it cheaper to finance a new factory, accumulate inventory, or upgrade current facilities. One of the biggest problems we've seen is the reduction of spending in the business world and all other things being equal, a rate cut should help. The other factor that could be playing into the bullishness in individual stocks is that it may help debt ratings. Moody's cut the credit ratings of 69 companies last month, which was the third highest total since 1986. The ratio was also 6.9:1 for downgrades to upgrades. If that rate continues through the quarter, it will be the worst on record. Lower rates can help corporate creditworthiness, similar to the way lower mortgage rates have allowed more people to purchase homes. According to Moody's chief economist, "If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, that improves the outlook for corporate credit ratings. It should increase the supply of liquidity, and suppliers of credit might be willing to assume more risk." A better credit rating makes it cheaper to finance current debt as well, adding to a company's bottom line. The techs got mixed news today. Dell said it expects strong growth in servers and "the phenomenal growth" in services to continue, as the company continues to standardize technology. It also said it is taking a look at routers and security gear. On the flip side of this news, Salomon Smith Barney downgraded the chip equipment sector, saying the elevated prices the group has reached recently will put it in line with the market movement from here on out. In addition, the Semiconductor Industry Association had some mixed data to report, as well. The organization said that third quarter global semiconductor sales grew 21% from last year's levels. That is certainly good news, and has fueled the recent rally in the Semiconductor Index (SOX). However, growth is expected to stall for the quarter, as sales grew a paltry 3% in September. In addition, some of the biggest names in the industry have predicted a slowdown. These include Texas Instruments, which expects a 10% revenue drop in the fourth quarter, and Intel, whose flat to 6% growth forecast is far below normal. The Association releases its 2003 outlook on Wednesday, which is expected to be reduced from the current projection of more than 20%. Applied Materials (AMAT) also announced it was laying off 11% of its workforce, in an attempt to adjust to a two year slump in chip demand. This afternoon, Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer (AAPL), said he has been hearing about a tech recovery 6 months out for the last two years, and they still have yet to see a turnaround in the PC market. Prudential also said that a tour of Chinese EMS facilities showed that demand remains lackluster, and still suffers from near term pricing pressure. A look at the SOX shows how the current upward trend is continuing, but faded with the rest of the market this afternoon. There is blue sky up until about 360 in the index when we look at the chart, but after a gain of 52% in less than a month, along with slowing growth, it seems that longs should beware of a stall. Chart of the SOX This morning also brought several downgrades of the retail sector. As we head toward the holidays, the recent economic data doesn't look promising. Personal spending is down; personal income increased less than expected; payrolls are down and Consumer Confidence is atrocious. If one sector is likely to feel the effects of these things more than others, it would seem to be the retailers. We started to get monthly sales warnings back in the summer, with stores repeatedly missing forecasts. These misses were blamed on a number of factors, mostly the weather (weather is always a factor in apparel sales). However, eventually companies began dropping sales targets, including Wal- Mart, which has cut them in half. One of the downgrades, May Department Stores (MAY), warned that third quarter earnings would come in below expectations. It said earnings would be $0.08- $0.10, approximately half of the mean estimate of $0.17. Most importantly, MAY reported third quarter sales fell 4% from last year, and there was also a 4% drop in October sales. Same store sales also dropped 7% in October. This is clearly an ominous sign heading into the holiday shopping season, since last year we were suffering the September 11 hangover. The fact that shoppers are purchasing even less this year speaks volumes about spending habits and the results of the economy. Recent retail darling Kohl's (KSS) was also downgraded, based on decelerating earnings growth and valuation. Goldman Sachs said it was cautious on the hard line retail sector, which includes Home Depot and Lowe's, citing "daunting" near-term comparisons and few organic growth opportunities. Many retailers will release monthly data on Thursday, so we should get a better look at the sector then. A drop in temperatures at the end of October has increased sales in some areas, but the trend heading into the biggest sales season of the year will not be dependent on the weather. So, why all the bearishness here? Because if we don't get a republican Senate and a 50 basis point rate cut, then we will only be left to ponder the economic data and business environment. We will most likely see a market on hold until election results begin to creep in tomorrow. With the fed meeting the next day, it will be interesting to see just how committed investors are until Wednesday afternoon. It seems that whatever bullish sentiment there was to start the week quickly faded as the sellers sold today's rally. I would initially think the rally failure was bearish, but there is no argument that we broke into higher ground, above Dow 8550. Bears should be careful with anything more than a 1/2 position here and look for not only a breakdown under 8550, but resistance there, as well. Bulls should look to take some profits if another rally stalls at 8750. While I'm still bearish overall, the next two days are recently uncharted water, so trade what you see, not what you think you should be seeing. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Barr Labs - BRL - close: 55.58 change: -3.03 WHAT TO WATCH: BRL has broken to new relative lows and is threatening to fall past support at $55.00. Today's high-volume decline (prompted by a brokerage downgrade) could portend a more severe sell-off. The p-n-f chart is looking weak as well, with shares recently falling below bullish support. Short entries can be targeted on a move below $55.00, with an initial target of $50.00. --- Citrix Systems - CTXS - close: 8.25 change: +0.52 WHAT TO WATCH: Demand for Information Technology products isn't exactly roaring back, but shareholders of CTXS have nonetheless enjoyed a gain of more than 50% in just three weeks. The stock blew through the $8.00 level on Monday and traded to a new multi- month high after Citrix unveiled some new products. Looking at the daily chart, there are no clear levels of resistance to prevent a test of the $10.00 level. The strong volume behind today's 6.7% gain bodes well for a continued advance. Aggressive traders can think about going long if CTXS breaks above $8.56. --- Nicor Inc - GAS - close: 32.46 change: +0.46 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of Nicor have been moving higher over the past week, despite a sell-off in natural gas futures (ng02z). This is somewhat surprising because the company announced last Tuesday that it would restate three years of financial results. That news seems to have already been factored in by the sharp gap lower on July 19th after the initial revelations of "accounting irregularities" became known. GAS is currently filling in this gap; the top of which coincides with the 200-dma ($38.39). This provides a reasonable bullish profit target. A break above today's high ($32.75) would yield a possible action point to go long. Those with a shorter-term timeframe could aim for a move to the next level of psychological resistance at $35.00. --- Honeywell Intl - HON - close: 25.01 change: +0.38 WHAT TO WATCH: HON could get a quick two-dollar pop if shares manage to break above $26.00. Broader market bullishness helped to propel the stock to a new relative high on Monday. HON is in the process of filling in the September 13th gap that was formed when the company issued an earnings warning. The bad news seems to have been priced in, and shares have bullishly moved above the 50-dma ($24.47). Take note that HON may find resistance at the July lows near $27.50. --- Intel Corp - INTC - close: 18.77 change: +0.47 WHAT TO WATCH: A positive reaction to the MSFT court ruling gave the entire tech sector a boost on Monday. The semiconductor index (SOX.X) extended Friday's breakout above 300 and finished with a 4.1% gain. Not too bad, considering there were some negative brokerage comments out on the chip group this morning. Although the current upside momentum is impressive, it may be time to start thinking about possible bearish trades within the sector. The SOX.X has solid overhead resistance at the 350 area, while INTC faces a similar obstacle at $20.00. Shares are overbought (as shown by the daily stochastics) and could easily reach the $16-$17 region if the NASDAQ begins to roll over. Aggressive bears could consider shorting a move below $18.50. --- Merck Co. - MRK - close: 53.68 change: -0.38 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of MRK have been spent the last week bouncing around in a tight range between resistance at $55.00 and the 200-dma at $53.11. Short-term traders could watch for a breakout to take the stock to the May highs near $59.00. However, a glance at the oscillators does not support a bullish perspective. The daily stochastics are falling from overbought levels, while the overextended MACD looks like it could soon begin to curl lower. Bearish entries could be gauged on a move below $53.00, with an initial profit-target of $50.00. A test of the 50-dma ($49.12) wouldn't be out of the question if the Dow Jones sells off after the Fed meeting. --- Nucor Corp - NUE - close: 46.42 change: +1.93 WHAT TO WATCH: Last Friday Morgan Stanley raised its rating on NUE from "equal-weight" to "overweight," based on the firm's belief that the expected 10% price increase in steel will benefit Nucor more than their competitors. The stock's technical picture is looking very strong. Shares tacked on 4.3% on Monday and closed well above the 50-dma ($44.23) and resistance at $45.00. This produced a triple-top breakout on the point-and-figure chart. Although there's some possible congestion in the $48 area, the ascending oscillators bode well for a rally to $50-$51. Long entries can be considered on a move above $47.00 or a pullback to the 50-dma. --- Plexus Corp - PLXS - close: 12.27 change: +1.12 WHAT TO WATCH: Here's another lower-dollar stock that's in the midst of a powerful rebound. PLXS has bounced sharply from its multi-year lows near $7.00 and just shot past the 50-dma ($11.39) and historical resistance at $12.00. Shares are already technically overextended, but a rally to the $16.00 region could be forthcoming if the NASDAQ continues higher. Aggressive entries can be evaluated on a move above $12.75. --- Rent-A-Center - RCII - close: 40.82 change: -2.25 WHAT TO WATCH: Rent-A-Center reported earnings last week that beat Wall Street expectations by two cents. The company also said its fourth-quarter results would be slightly better than consensus estimates. The fundamental picture looks solid enough, but investors have not responded with enthusiastic buying. Instead, RCII has lost more than 10% over the past three days on stronger-than-average volume. Shares declined by 5.2% on Monday and appeared to be oblivious to the broader market's intraday strength. The stock is now in danger of falling below support near $40.00. Watch for a move under the multi-month low of $39.59 to clear the way for a decline to the $36.00 level. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH Active Trader play) ========================= Superior Ind. - SUP - cls: 41.60 chg: -1.00 stop: 45.27 *new* Company Description: Superior supplies aluminum wheels and other aluminum automotive components to Ford, General Motors, DaimlerChrysler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Land Rover, MG Rover, Toyota, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Subaru and Isuzu. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: October 24th, 2002 - Why We Like It: As you can see from the above description, SUP earns its money by selling wheels and other components to the major auto manufactures. That fact could weigh heavily on the stock in the weeks to come. Although zero-interest financing had cars zooming off the lots over the past year, this brisk pace seems to be subsiding. The Beige Book data released on Wednesday indicated "motor vehicle sales generally slowed from very high levels." This does not bode well for Superior Industries. The company recently announced some new contracts, but future revenue still largely depends on strong auto sales. On a technical basis, we like SUP as a short play because of the way shares have rolled over from resistance at the converging 50-day ($45.41) and 200- day ($45.07) moving averages. This level is also the location of descending resistance on both the bar chart and the point-and- figure chart. The falling daily stochastics (5,3,3 setting) provide more ammunition for the bears. The last four times the stochastics fell out of the overbought region, shares were met with heavy selling. We're optimistically targeting a retest of the recent lows near $36.00. Shares bounced from just under whole-number support at $43.00 today, so we're going to place an entry trigger at $42.97. If this play is activated we'll use a stop at $46.01, above the relative high and the aforementioned moving averages. Shorter-term traders could use a tighter stop and target a decline to the $40.00 area. - Most recent update: November 1st, 2002 - SUP finished in the green on Friday, but that's just about the only victory the bulls can claim. The stock lagged the broader market with a gain of only 13 cents and traced a lower high and lower low (relative to yesterday's range.) A glance at the 10- minute chart shows what's keeping a lid on SUP: Shares have repeatedly faltered at the declining 200-pd moving average. While this may be a mere coincidence, the short-term downtrend bodes well for this play. New entries can be targeted on a move under today's low ($41.65) or a violation of the relative low at $41.16. Conservative traders can use stops just above the 200-dma at $45.23. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: November 4th, 2002 - Shareholders of SUP cannot be pleased with Monday's action. The stock failed to participate in the broader market rally and finished with a loss of 2.3%. This pullback came on the strongest volume since October 18th, which suggests that the bears are firmly in control. Further technical weakness is shown by the reversing daily stochastics and rolling MACD. Also, check out that bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart! Basically it looks like SUP will have a very tough time moving higher over the next few sessions. If the stock can't rally on a day when the Dow is soaring 200+ points on an intraday basis, it stands to reason that a market sell-off will lead to new relative lows for SUP. Insofar as action points, short entries can be targeted on a move under the short-term low at $41.16. Those who are thinking about taking new positions on Tuesday need to be aware that Wednesday's FOMC meeting could lead to unusually volatile trading in SUP (and the overall market in general). Traders may want to wait until after the interest rate decision to gauge new entries. Our stop-loss for SUP has been lowered to $45.27, just above the 200-dma. Picked on October 28th at $42.97 Results since picked: +1.37 Earnings Date 10/17/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 11-04-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stock Bottom / Active Trader Stop Adjustments: SUP (bearish) High Risk/Reward Stop Adjustments WPI (bullish) Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- Superior Ind. - SUP - cls: 41.60 chg: -1.00 stop: 45.27 *new* SUP behaved in a very bearish manner on Monday, as shares disregarded the intraday broader market rally and pulled back by 2.3% on stronger-than-average volume. This relative weakness, combined with the bearish oscillators, suggests that shares will continue to move lower on Tuesday. New entries can be targeted on a move below $41.16. Our stop-loss has been lowered to $45.27, slightly above the 200-dma. More conservative traders could use a stop just above $44.00. Picked on October 28th at $26.20 Results since picked: +1.65 Earnings Date 11/06/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== Stop Adjustments ---------------- Watson Pharma. - WPI - cls: 27.85 chg: -0.49 stop: 27.51 *new* Only one day left for this play. WPI showed relative weakness versus the DRG.X pharmaceutical index on Monday and was unable to move to a new relative high. In an effort to protect a 5% gain, we've raised our stop for WPI to $27.51. With only one day before Watson announces earnings we've also lowered our exit target to $28.49, four cents under today's high. If neither our stop nor target is reached tomorrow, we'll close this play as of the final trade on Tuesday. Picked on October 28th at $26.20 Results since picked: +1.65 Earnings Date 11/06/02 (confirmed) ================= Trading Ideas ================= This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ACF Americredit Corp 8.58 +0.53 NVDA Nvidia Corp 15.64 +1.54 CHKP Checkpoint Software 14.80 +0.55 ULTE Ultimate Electronics 15.07 +1.17 BBOX Black Box Corp 45.74 +1.84 TECD Tech Data Corp 35.22 +1.88 XEL Xcel Energy 11.42 +0.62 OPTN Option Care 8.85 +0.79 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change HPQ Hewlett-Packard 17.70 +1.39 FFIV F5 Networks 10.56 +1.04 DCTM Documentum Inc 17.43 +1.99 PCLE Pinnacle Systems 12.90 +1.20 BELM Bell Microproducts 8.35 +1.97 HELX Helix Technology 12.24 +1.38 PLXS Plexus Corp 12.28 +1.13 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change DELL Dell Computer 30.05 +1.07 AXP American Express 37.53 +1.28 SCSC Scansource Inc 68.06 +4.72 VSEA Varian Semiconductor 27.60 +2.25 TARO Taro Pharmaceutical 37.35 +1.96 MMS Maximus Inc 23.07 +2.11 ISSX Internet Security Sys. 21.21 +2.02 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change RCII Rent A Center 40.82 -2.25 BRL Barr Laboratories 55.58 -3.03 LMT Lockheed Martin 50.23 -6.15 LLL L-3 Communications 43.50 -2.86 KPP Kaneb Pipeline 33.36 -1.06 TRW TRW Inc 49.50 -3.08 DF Dean Foods 35.52 -2.18 VNX Veridian Corp 21.63 -1.38 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CPS Choicepoint Inc 35.73 -1.16 CPC Central Parking Corp 22.59 -0.61 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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