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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 11-14-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Dell Rocks
Play-of-the-Day:  Soaring Software
Market Sentiment: In a Pinch


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      11-14-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8542.13 +143.60  8545.11  8403.69 1.81 bln   2334/ 881
NASDAQ   1411.52 + 50.20  1411.63  1378.94 1.72 bln   2337/1078
S&P 100   461.14 + 10.43   461.32   450.61   Totals   4671/1959
S&P 500   904.27 + 21.74   904.27   882.53
RUS 2000  386.24 + 10.13   386.24   376.11
DJ TRANS 2339.12 + 48.20  2339.24  2291.42
VIX        32.60 -  3.68    34.64    32.06
VXN        52.40 -  2.06    50.61    49.86
Total Vol   3,706M
Total UpVol   526M
Total DnVol 3,144M
52wk Highs   112
52wk Lows    147
TRIN        0.44
PUT/CALL    0.58
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Dell Rocks

The AMAT earnings after the bell yesterday were grim with
guidance for another -20% drop in orders in the fourth quarter
and a forecast for another 6-9 months of declining chip demand.
Dell hit estimates which were raised twice in the quarter and
said the fourth quarter was shaping up for another rise in
revenue. Both companies are heavily dependent on the current
economy but they appear to be living on different planets.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


The AMAT news was grim but the chip sector soared to a huge gain
on the bad news. The SOX was up +23.48 with many chip makers
breaking out to a new recent high. Obviously if you want logic
don't look in the stock market. The consensus appeared to be
that the bad news was already priced in after the recent AMAT
restructuring news and everybody expected worse. That leads us
to the following assumption.

Dell posted what could only be called a remarkable quarter.
When everyone else was growing +2% Dell grew +22%. They said
they were continuing to steal market share from HWP and GTW
and their server and notebook business was soaring. The server
side of the business gained +27% for the quarter. Michael Dell
said the fourth quarter was shaping for another +10% gain over
the third quarter. Dell said business spending had stabilized
and was no longer dropping.

This brought back memories of the Dell of yesteryear. Constant
growth at the expense of others and continued branching out
into other tech areas where its business model would give it
the edge over competition. Dell said it was turning over
inventory 99 times per quarter and that gave them a price and
feature edge over the other box makers. The bottom line to
this story is that Dell is firing on all cylinders and kicking
box maker butt. This is a strong win for Dell but only Dell.
The only positive thing Dell said about the market was that
IT spending had quit falling. Dell is gaining share from rivals
not from business expansion and increased capital spending.
However, the news "should" be positive for Dell stock but it
was trading down in after hours. Surprised? You shouldn't be.
The strong gains Dell stock posted in the last month were based
on Dell raising/affirming guidance twice during the quarter.
The good news was already priced into the stock, which was
trading at six month highs. In later news the COO said on the
conference call that "we are not sure the industry is going to
see a particularly strong Q4 and that is the big question mark
in our outlook. "IF" we see better industry numbers then we
could do better." He must have been listening to the IBM call
yesterday.

Now for the assumption. If AMAT trades up after posting a
grim quarter AS EXPECTED then should DELL trade down after
posting a strong quarter AS EXPECTED? Dell dropped -$1 in
after hours and Nasdaq futures were down -4.50 in early
trading. This is of course temporary and tomorrow is another
story. With the extreme bullishness exhibited today I would
be surprised if the "business spending has stabilized" comment
did not fuel some more gains.

Bad news equaled good news again. The bad news was that retail
sales were flat for October. This was also good news because
the bottom did not fall out as many analysts had expected.
Autos were the major cause of the flat line as the biggest
decrease in sales. Without the auto anchor consumer sales
actually grew +0.7% with winter clothing leading the charge.
Adding to this "bullish" news was a minor drop in initial
jobless claims of -8,000. The markets roared off at the open
and you would have thought the total jobless claims were 8,000.
The key number was the +89,000 increase in continuing claims,
which indicates the number of people out of work is still
growing. Also, the weekly number, which got so much positive
press, was not even a complete number. The Veteran's Day
holiday caused some data to be left out and this number will
be revised next week. There was also no allowance for the
increase in temporary holiday jobs causing seasonal dips in
the jobless claims. The bottom line again was that traders
wanted an excuse to buy stocks and this was the best one
available.

Remember it was just yesterday that Greenspan said there
were "no signs of appreciable vigor" in the economy and
warned we were in a "soft spot". That soft spot hit Sprint,
which announced another -1,600 job cuts and Lehman Brothers,
which announced -500 cuts after the close. They said their
chief investment strategist Jeffery Applegate was also fired.

Economics for tomorrow include Business Inventories, PPI,
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Michigan
Sentiment. The Industrial Production and Sentiment are going
to be the most important. The markets ran up to stop just
under resistance once again and the internal market indicators
are showing very overbought conditions. The Dow has strong
resistance at 8550 and closed at 8541. Nasdaq at 1425 and
closed at 1410. The SPX/OEX are both within a couple points
of critical resistance levels. With option expiration tomorrow
there is a good chance we will see some pinning at critical
levels like OEX 460, SPX 900, Nasdaq 1400, DOW 8500. The
exception to this forecast would be a breakout based on the
Dell earnings, which would make no sense other than some
positive sentiment since it is a Dell only story. A breakout
over those levels mentioned above could generate significant
short covering.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


===============
Play-of-the-Day   (New BULLISH tech play)
===============

Kronos Inc. - KRON - close: 39.99 change: +0.49 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Kronos Incorporated is a single-source provider of integrated
human resources, payroll and labor management solutions. Kronos
products and services help organizations align their people,
processes and technology to improve individual productivity and
boost overall business performance. (source: company press
release)

Why We Like It:
Tech bulls have had a lot to cheer about over the past month.
Well, maybe we should qualify that statement.  The latest round
of earnings was hardly impressive, and the fundamental weakness
brought on by a lack of IT spending hasn't shown any signs of
improving.  But this hasn't prevented the NASDAQ from rising more
than 25% from its October lows.  Buyers have been ignoring bad
news (such as last night's AMAT earnings) in hopes that the steep
uptrend will continue.  And so far, it has.  The NASDAQ retraced
roughly 38% of its October/November rally and now appears to be
headed for a test of resistance at 1425.  A move above this level
would set the stage for a rally to the 200-dma at 1514.  With
sector leader MSFT looking strong, the GSO.X software index has
rebounded from support at 100 and is moving towards an encounter
with its own resistance at 110.  Stocks like KRON have helped to
push the sector higher.

Unlike many of its competitors, Kronos actually boasts solid
growth.  The fourth-quarter earnings report in late-October
featured an EPS of 57 cents, which was 11 cents better than
analyst expectations.  The upside surprise helped to launch KRON
from the $30.00 area.  Shares finally rolled over from resistance
at $40.00 and pulled back to the 200-dma at $36.03.  This
pullback alleviated some of the overbought conditions on the
oscillators and gave the bulls a chance to catch their breath.
Shares rebounded and traded above $40.00 on Thursday en route to
a new multi-month high.  The rising daily stochastics (5,3,3) and
uptrending GSO.X are indications that KRON will experience
another breakout in the near future.  By entering this play on a
move above today's high ($40.50), we're attempting to capture a
rally to the $45.00 area. Those who are a little more ambitious
could aim for a retest of the May highs at $46.40.  Possible
resistance looms at the $41.25-$41.50 area.  The double-top buy
signal created by a trade at $41.00 should help to push KRON
above that obstacle.  If our play is triggered we'll use a stop
at $37.98, just under Wednesday's low.  More aggressive traders
may want to use a stop under the 200-dma.

Annotated chart - KRON:



Picked on November xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/29/02 (confirmed)





================
Market Sentiment
================

In a Pinch

by Steve Price

Let's see, Applied Materials (AMAT) predicts a 20% revenue
decline in the first quarter, and the semiconductor stocks jump
7%.  Retail sales were flat in October and the sector rises 3%.
Confused?  Bulls looking to get into the market can certainly
interpret data any way they want. And if they are going to keep
buying, in spite of data that does not look promising, then the
bears should step back and get out of the way.   The Dow close
over 8500 should throw up a big red flag, although 8550 is also
strong resistance.

I talked about the possibility of another head and shoulders
formation taking place in the Dow and S&P 500 several days ago,
and in order to get that formation we needed a bounce to form the
right shoulder.   The top of the left shoulder is 8550, so we are
not in all-out bullish territory just yet. In fact, we could
rally all the way to below 8800 in the Dow (925 SPX), and still
see significant downside risk.  If we do roll over below 8550,
then look for a neckline break around 8300 to land us back below
8000 (downside measuring objective of 7750).  The current bearish
vertical count on the Dow's point and figure chart is 7850. Of
course, that's the bear's view of the current market situation.

Bulls will point to the higher low on the recent pullback and
rebound back above 8500. While a 50-point range seems a little
tight to draw conclusions from, this 50-point range contains two
significant levels.  A breakout above 8550 should give the buyers
fuel and we could see a run back to 8800.  A drop back below 8500
will help form the aforementioned right shoulder.

There was some good news this morning.  Initial jobless claims
for the week ended November 9 dropped 8,000 to 388,000.  More
importantly, the 4-week moving average fell below the 400,000
barometer most analysts use as an indication for a weakening or
improving economy.  The median home price in the U.S. also rose
7.2% to $161,800, indicating that buyers are still outstripping
supply.

After the bell, Dell released earnings that met expectations and
said that next quarter should see an increase in revenue of 20%
year over year. It pegged revenue at $9.7 billion, which was
actually slightly below some expectations of $9.9 billion.  When
asked if the company had seen an increase in IT budgets, CEO
Michael Dell said there had been more of a re-allocation than an
increase. The stock traded down 0.90 after hours to $30.06.

Gap Stores also reported after the bell and beat expectations by
a penny.  The retailer, which also owns Banana Republic and Old
Navy, said that it would remain cautious going forward, though,
until its business shows consistent results.  It also said capex
for the full year 2002 would be down in the low $300 million
range, from previous estimates of $360 million.

Tomorrow's economic plate includes PPI, business inventories and
the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
We should definitely get a feel for which direction the rally is
headed.  We haven't seen less than a 100-point intraday range in
the Dow since the middle of September, so the chances of trading
between 8500 and 8550 are fairly remote.

Dow 8537.13 is where we ended last week, so for all the triple
digit movement, we are up only 5 Dow points for the week. We are
up 10 in the SPX.  The Nasdaq is the big winner so far, up 52.24,
after a gain of 50.18 today. With the COMP at 1411.52, a rally
could once again test the August high of 1426.  If we break that
level, then it doesn't make sense to lean short, regardless of
the action in the rest of the market.  However, if we fail there,
and at Dow 8500 (and SPX 900), then it appears that we can ride
the range back down to 8300 for the short term and possibly much
lower with a move under 8300.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7286
Current     :  8542

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8534
 50-dma: 8173
200-dma: 9237

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  775
Current     :  904

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  899
 50-dma:  867
200-dma:  992

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1057

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1026
 50-dma:  928
200-dma: 1140

-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  AMAT predicts a 20% revenue
decline and says it sees no turnaround anytime soon in the chip
sector - and the SOX jumps 8% to 319.13.  If you listened only to
the comments coming out of the sector, and viewed only the IT
spending trends, you would short every chip stock on the board.
If you looked only at the charts and completely ignored forecasts
and comments about the industry, you'd be buying.  Therefore, I
am still struggling with jumping on board long to a sector that
has no visible turnaround. However, shorting the sector, given
the current buying and blast through resistance at 300 and 310,
also seems foolish.  I'm going to close short positions here
until I see an appreciable downtrend, however I haven't quite
convinced myself to hang on for a ride up yet, either.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 319

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 308
 50-dma: 270
200-dma: 417
------------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

All of a sudden, everything is alright.  A Dow rally over 8500
and the VIX drops into the low 30s.  I wonder what will happen if
we end up testing 8400 again.  Actually, the big firms don't seem
too worried about that possibility, since you don't get a 3.68
drop in the VIX without some institutional selling. If we
continue upward tomorrow, we could see the VIX testing 30 on
expiration Friday, as firms who sold November premium buy it back
in for pennies and roll out to short December positions.
November is no longer included in the VIX calculation, so a big
drop in the December at the money premium levels could possibly
even lead the VIX below 30.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 32.60 -3.68
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 52.46 -2.00

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.58        884,857       514,447
Equity Only    0.50        567,203       284,752
OEX            1.07         54,009        57,729
QQQ            0.68         73,417        50,174

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          40      - 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    66      - 1     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   67      + 4     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       55      + 0     Bull Alert
S&P 100       64      + 2     Bull Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Arms Index   1.34
10-Day Arms Index  1.20
21-Day Arms Index  1.10
55-Day Arms Index  1.25


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       2120           634
NASDAQ     2219          1019

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         22              43
NASDAQ       55              52

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,796
NASDAQ   1,746

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/05/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added 4,000 contracts to the short side, while
increasing longs by 1,000.  Small trader added 1,000 to the long
side, while increasing short positions by only 500 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/15/02      429,448   449,138   (19,690)   (2.2%)
10/22/02      432,775   463,827   (31,052)   (3.5%)
10/29/02      437,565   468,557   (30,992)   (3.4%)
11/05/02      438,546   472,384   (33,838)   (3.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/15/02      134,507    83,714    50,793     23.3%
10/22/02      134,641    72,681    61,960     29.8%
10/29/02      137,740    75,587    62,153     29.1%
11/05/02      138,604    76,032    65,572     30.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials added 2,000 long contracts while adding 1,000 to the
short side.  Small traders added 30%, or 3,000 contracts to the
long side, while increasing shorts by a similar amount.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/15/02       45,578     51,969    (6,391) ( 6.6%)
10/22/02       48,954     54,088    (5,134) ( 4.9%)
10/29/02       47,837     55,261    (7,324) ( 7.1%)
11/05/02       49,128     56,121    (6,993) ( 6.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/15/02       10,185    12,478     2,293    10.1%
10/22/02       10,202     8,892     1,310     6.6%
10/29/02       10,584     9,419     1,165     5.8%
11/05/02       13,355    12,903       452     1.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added to both sides, increasing longs by 700 and
shorts by 2,300.  Small traders reduced long positions slightly,
but dropped 2,300 from their short side, for a significant
reduction in the overall short position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/15/02       20,914     9,630   11,284      36.9%
10/22/02       22,189    13,448    8,741      24.5%
10/29/02       21,800    13,337    8,463      24.1%
11/05/02       22,533    15,687    6,846      17.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/15/02        6,040    10,329    (4,289)   (26.2%)
10/22/02        4,445     9,270    (4,825)   (35.1%)
10/29/02        5,602    11,090    (5,488)   (32.9%)
11/05/02        5,089     8,735    (3,646)   (26.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 11-14-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     KRON
  Bearish Play Updates:  IBM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates:  BZH, DIA, SUP

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AHC, T
  Bearish Play Updates:  HGSI

Split Trader Stock Splits
  Split Announcement:
                         CLBK: 5-for-4 Split Announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=============
NB New Plays
=============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Kronos Inc. - KRON - close: 39.99 change: +0.49 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Kronos Incorporated is a single-source provider of integrated
human resources, payroll and labor management solutions. Kronos
products and services help organizations align their people,
processes and technology to improve individual productivity and
boost overall business performance. (source: company press
release)

Why We Like It:
Tech bulls have had a lot to cheer about over the past month.
Well, maybe we should qualify that statement.  The latest round
of earnings was hardly impressive, and the fundamental weakness
brought on by a lack of IT spending hasn't shown any signs of
improving.  But this hasn't prevented the NASDAQ from rising more
than 25% from its October lows.  Buyers have been ignoring bad
news (such as last night's AMAT earnings) in hopes that the steep
uptrend will continue.  And so far, it has.  The NASDAQ retraced
roughly 38% of its October/November rally and now appears to be
headed for a test of resistance at 1425.  A move above this level
would set the stage for a rally to the 200-dma at 1514.  With
sector leader MSFT looking strong, the GSO.X software index has
rebounded from support at 100 and is moving towards an encounter
with its own resistance at 110.  Stocks like KRON have helped to
push the sector higher.

Unlike many of its competitors, Kronos actually boasts solid
growth.  The fourth-quarter earnings report in late-October
featured an EPS of 57 cents, which was 11 cents better than
analyst expectations.  The upside surprise helped to launch KRON
from the $30.00 area.  Shares finally rolled over from resistance
at $40.00 and pulled back to the 200-dma at $36.03.  This
pullback alleviated some of the overbought conditions on the
oscillators and gave the bulls a chance to catch their breath.
Shares rebounded and traded above $40.00 on Thursday en route to
a new multi-month high.  The rising daily stochastics (5,3,3) and
uptrending GSO.X are indications that KRON will experience
another breakout in the near future.  By entering this play on a
move above today's high ($40.50), we're attempting to capture a
rally to the $45.00 area. Those who are a little more ambitious
could aim for a retest of the May highs at $46.40.  Possible
resistance looms at the $41.25-$41.50 area.  The double-top buy
signal created by a trade at $41.00 should help to push KRON
above that obstacle.  If our play is triggered we'll use a stop
at $37.98, just under Wednesday's low.  More aggressive traders
may want to use a stop under the 200-dma.

Annotated chart - KRON:



Picked on November xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/29/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intl Business Machines - IBM - cls: 80.72 chg: +1.37 stop: 82.06

"Neutral" is probably the best adjective to describe IBM's
analyst conference on Wednesday afternoon.  The company touched
on the familiar theme of a challenging IT environment but also
reiterated its full-year estimates for 2003.  With no major news
coming out of the conference, shares were mostly at the whim of
the broader market on Thursday.  IBM traded in tandem with the
Dow Jones and finished with a 1.7% gain.  This was somewhat
lackluster compared to the explosive 3.6% rally on the NASDAQ,
but it was enough to push the stock above $80.00.  We're not
thrilled with the way shares moved above that level.  Fortunately
the bulls will face another obstacle at the descending 200-dma
($81.24).  Whether this moving average actually provides
resistance will probably depend on how the NASDAQ performs
tomorrow.  Another powerful rally would probably push IBM above
our stop.  Fellow big-cap tech DELL reported in-line earnings
after the bell today and was trading slightly lower in after-
hours.  It's a bit early to say for sure, but it looks like the
announcement won't be a big factor tomorrow.  Although we
wouldn't advise taking any new bearish positions in IBM at
current levels, aggressive traders could consider shorting an
intraday rollover from the 200-dma.

Picked on November 7th at $78.95
Results since picked:      -1.77
Earnings Date           10/16/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 61.07 change: +2.17 stop: 64.06

While today's broader market rally was largely attributed to this
morning's retail numbers, plenty of other sectors got in on the
bullish action.  The DJUSHB home construction index tacked on
more than 3% and shot above near-term resistance at 290.  BZH,
which looked pretty weak on Wednesday when shares set a new
relative low, bounced back with a 3.6% gain.  The close above
whole-number resistance at $60.00 isn't a positive sign for this
play.  From a "big-picture" perspective, some short covering
could be expected after a week-long downtrend.  The move higher
seems to have been a result of positive sector momentum rather
than any stock-specific strength.  A one-day bounce isn't overly
worrisome, but another strong performance by the DJUSHB might
indicate that the bulls have regained control.  We'll have a
better idea of where BZH is headed after Friday's session.  For
the time being, we would not recommend entering any new short
positions.

Picked on November 12th at $59.94
Results since picked:       -1.13
Earnings Date            11/05/02 (confirmed)




---

Diamonds - DIA - close: 85.65 change: +1.05 stop: 87.06

The bulls have certainly been a tenacious bunch lately.  After
trying in vain to push the Dow Jones above 8550 for most of the
week, this level of resistance finally gave way on Thursday
afternoon.  The index traded in positive territory for the entire
session after gapping higher on better-than-expected retail sales
data.  "Better than expected" in this case was no change in
retail sales compared to the estimated decline of 0.2%.  Perhaps
that says something about how uncertain investors are about the
economy - The bar has been set so low that a lack of growth can
be seen as a reason to buy!  This also reflects the recent trend
on Wall Street to ignore bad news.  For instance, last night's
earnings from AMAT was predominantly negative.  Did that stop
eager bulls from rushing into chip stocks?  Nope.  As far as this
play in concerned, the Diamonds still face resistance in the 8600
area.  The daily chart for the Dow also looks like it may be
tracing a head-and-shoulders pattern, but we'll have to see a
rollover before the right shoulder is formed.  Tomorrow morning's
Industrial Production and Preliminary Michigan sentiment
data (estimated to come in at -0.3% and 82.0, respectively) will
probably have a large impact on how the index trades tomorrow.  A
negative reaction could send the Diamonds back towards the $83-
$84 area.  Aggressive traders can consider adding short positions
on a move below $85.00.

Picked on November 7th at $85.89
Results since picked:      +1.59
Earnings Date           xx/xx/xx




---

Superior Ind. - SUP - cls: 40.75 chg: +0.55 stop: 43.83

Superior filed its 10-Q with the SEC on Wednesday morning.
Judging by the orderly trading, Wall Street didn't find any
surprises contained in the Quarterly Report.  Yesterday's action
did produce a bearish technical development when shares fell
below support at $40.00.  Although this had the bears licking
their chops in anticipation of a sell-off, SUP broke its five-day
losing streak today and posted a 1.3% gain.  Overall this rebound
was not especially impressive.  SUP underperformed the Dow Jones
and gave back much of its intraday gains during the final hour of
trading.  On Friday we'll be watching for the stock to move to a
new relative low.  A negative reaction to tomorrow morning's
Industrial Production and Michigan Sentiment data could provide
the perfect catalyst for a breakdown.  Traders looking to add
short positions can watch for SUP to fall below $39.84.

Picked on October 28th at $42.97
Results since picked:      +2.22
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 53.13 change: +1.88 stop: 49.38

Good news for AHC and a strong stock market helped boost our
bullish play on this oil issue.  It doesn't hurt to have a 144-
point rally in the Industrials if you're long (most anything).
What also helped push shares of AHC higher was a pre-morning-bell
upgrade.  The analyst at First Albany moved AHC from a "neutral"
to a "buy" with a price target of $60.00.  Sounds familiar
doesn't it?  Our price target is $59.94.  The analyst cited some
positive results from operations in the Rio Muni Basin and given
the recent decline in share price felt the valuation was
reasonable.  They also bumped up their earnings estimates for
2002 by 75 cents to $6.20 and the 2003 estimates by 80 cents to
$4.65.  What is interesting and should be noted by sharp traders
is the continuing decline in the oil per barrel.  This would be a
bearish pressure on the oil industry in general.  The December
contracts have continued to slip the last two sessions despite
what appeared to be a potential bottom near the 200-dma.  Given
that the Iraqi war situation seems to produce daily headlines
oscillating either direction ("yes, we will disarm.  no, we
won't," etc.) there does seem to be a growing consensus that a
war with Iraq is imminent.  Looking at a chart of the light,
sweet crude oil contracts we do see two potential bullish
signals.  The price is approaching old support near the $24.25-
24.50 levels and the MACD is showing a bullish divergence in its
histogram.  Please see the chart below for more.

Chart of CL02Z (December 02 oil futures)



Picked on November 12th at $52.41
Results since picked:       +0.72
Earnings Date            10/24/02 (confirmed)




---

AT&T Corp. - T - close: 13.67 change: +0.20 stop: 13.38 *new*

In a much-anticipated event, the FCC finally approved the AT&T
Broadband and Comcast (CMCSA & CMCSK) merger, which will now be
the country's biggest cable company.  The new company will have
almost 27 million cable customers equating to nearly 29% of the
market.  Now that the deal has been approved, the new combined
company AT&T Comcast will replace Comcast in the S&P 500 starting
on Monday with a new stock symbol COMCV.  Since the approval was
pretty much a foregone conclusion shares of AT&T did not react
very sharply on Wednesday.  The stock has actually continued to
slip lower although it did bounce 20 cents in Thursday's session.
We're growing concerned that the stock is loosing steam and could
fall back to the $12.50 to $13.00 levels (the 50 and 200-dma are
about to converge near $12.75, sounds like a good place to
bounce).  The MACD has produced a bearish crossover but the
stochastics are valiantly trying to follow through on a bullish
reversal.  Given the market's erratic behavior the last couple of
sessions we're going to tighten our stop on T to reduce our risk.
Our entry price was hypothetically $13.40.  Shares of T bounced
there twice yesterday.  We're going to set our new stop at
$13.38.  If AT&T can rally from here, near the bottom of its
ascending channel, then great.  If not, we'll be closed out of
the play for almost nothing.  Please see the accompanying chart
for details.

Chart of T (11/14/02):



Picked on October 23rd at $13.40
Results since picked:      +0.27
Earnings Date           10/22/02 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 8.63 chg: +0.13 stop: 9.51

Still looking weak.  Following Wednesday's late-session selloff,
HGSI moved to a new multi-year this morning.  It took a powerful
NASDAQ rally to prevent a more severe breakdown.  The stock moved
back into positive territory by the closing bell but wasn't able
to match the 3.3% gain posted by the BTK.X biotech index.  Shares
have shown no signs of breaking out of the prolonged downtrend
(see the 60-minute chart) and the p-n-f chart is showing a
double-bottom sell signal.  We think HGSI will be hard-pressed to
avoid new lows if the market reverses course on Friday.  In case
you missed yesterday's comments, our stop has been lowered to
$9.51.  Traders looking to protect a gain (this play is currently
up 9.0%) could consider taking profits if HGSI breaks above
$8.70.  We've also set an official profit-target at $7.51,
slightly above the 1999 lows.

Picked on November 1st at $9.49
Results since picked:     +0.86
Earnings Date          10/29/02 (confirmed)


=================================================================
Split Trader Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

Commercial Bankshares Inc Announces 5-for-4 Split

Traditionally this bank stock has been known to offer 21:20 stock
splits or 5% dividends in the form of a stock split.  This time
the Board of Directors has increased it to a 5:4 split.

Based in Miami, Florida, Commercial Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:
CLBK), released word that shareholders of record as of December
10th, 2002 will receive the extra share to be distributed on
January 3rd, 2003.

The company also announced a $0.19 cent cash dividend that will be
paid on a post-split basis.

Shares closed at $28.49 on Thursday.  For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CLBK

About the company
Commercial Bankshares, Inc. is the parent company of Commercial Bank
of Florida, a $685 million, state-chartered, FDIC-insured commercial
bank and a member of the Federal Reserve. The Bank operates 14
branches in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida. (source:
company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

EME     Emcor Group                48.99     +1.05
EP      El Paso                     9.48     +1.48
BN      Banta Corp                 30.95     +1.36
NLS     Nautilus Group             13.85     +0.64
CBE     Cooper Industries          33.52     +1.05
MMS     Maximus Inc                24.10     +1.10

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

IMCL    Imclone Systems            13.44     +2.57
DCTM    Documentum Inc             18.07     +1.22
AMAT    Applied Materials          15.76     +1.06
CCRN    Cross Country              15.87     +1.64
CURE    Curative Health Services   15.74     +1.50
VOD     Vodafone Group             18.81     +1.10

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FRK     Florida Rock Ind.          36.70     +1.09
SFNT    Safenet Inc                23.61     +2.01
HYSL    Hyperion Solutions         28.55     +1.91
ICOS    Icos Corp                  28.32     +4.01
SNPS    Synopsys Inc               48.94     +3.79
SCOR    Syncor Intl.               25.69     +2.81
NBIX    Neurocrine Biosciences     48.00     +1.71

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ABC     Amerisourcebergen          63.80     -2.66
CW      Curtiss Wright Corp        66.52     -2.33
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svc.   42.25     -4.45
INTU    Intuit Inc                 49.23     -3.63
RTN     Raytheon                   27.39     -1.57
PGL     Peoples Energy Corp        34.41     -1.59
HBC     HSBC Holdings              54.20     -1.85

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

                             




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