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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 11/21/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 11-21-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Bulls Send Bears Into Hibernation
Play-of-the-Day:  Into the Void
Market Sentiment: Semi-Bullish


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      11-21-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8845.36 +222.40  8856.57  8625.48 2.44 bln   2166/1033
NASDAQ   1467.41 + 48.10  1468.72  1430.08 2.35 bln   2272/1130
S&P 100   477.88 + 10.89   478.44   466.99   Totals   4438/2163
S&P 500   933.79 + 19.64   935.13   914.15
RUS 2000  397.70 +  9.11   397.89   388.59
DJ TRANS 2328.78 + 47.40  2342.76  2281.91
VIX        27.37 -  1.29    28.87    27.21
VXN        44.70 -  0.12    45.85    42.16
Total Vol   5,047M
Total UpVol 4,302M
Total DnVol   708M
52wk Highs   170
52wk Lows    119
TRIN        0.53
PUT/CALL    0.74
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Bulls Send Bears Into Hibernation

On a day that the stock with the third largest market cap warned
of lower growth and earnings for this year and next the market
broke out of its recent trading range and through strong resistance.
GE warns, BA cuts 5,000 jobs, MWD cuts -2,200 and the drooling
bears are run over by excited bulls.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


The bad news was obviously already priced into the market that
GE had fallen out of the ranks of the double-digit earnings
growers. GE said it would take a $1.4 billion charge, less than
analysts had expected, to bolster reserves at its reinsurance
unit. GE said it suffered huge losses from the 9/11 attack and
was taking the action to cover future risk. GE also said it was
going to add $4.5 billion in capital to GE Capital to reduce its
debt ratios and maintain the AAA credit rating. GE closed up
+2.05 on the news because analysts expected a much worse forecast.

Morgan Stanley also announced they would cut -2,200 jobs in a
move to cut costs and battle slumping financial markets. This
follows -67,000 job cuts already made in the sector since 2000.
Boeing said it would cut -5,000 in its commercial division due
to the continued slump in the airline sector.

The good news came in the form of an earnings win by HPQ last
night and an affirmation of their current quarter as well. This
powered tech stocks over the critical Nasdaq 1425 level and once
over that resistance the short covering began. Chip stocks roared
and consumer cyclicals fell as money rotated out of defensive
stocks and into techs.

Helping fuel the fire was a lower than expected Jobless Claims
number at 376,000 instead of 390,000. Traders ignored the fact
that last weeks numbers were revised up to 401,000. They also
ignored the fact that this was for a four day work week due to
the Veteran's Day holiday. Look for this number to rise next week.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey soared to 6.1 when estimates were
for a -3.0 number. This indicates a slowly expanding manufacturing
sector but far from a strong indication. Inventories are still
dropping as well as prices but new orders rose slightly. There
was a strong bounce in the capital expenditure component from
14.5 to 25.5 which indicates business investment is starting to
rise. Also bullish was the flat Index of Leading Indicators which
has been negative for four consecutive months. Six of the ten
components improved in October. This does not paint a picture of
a growing economy but it does indicate the drop into a second
recessionary dip is less likely.

Offsetting the positive reports was a negative Chicago Fed National
Activity Index. The number came in at -.81 and the biggest drop
in the last seven months. This reflects the overall softness in
October and weak employment. Production fell by -0.8% and well
below consensus expectations. This was the third monthly decline.
Of the 85 indicators 61 were below average and only 37 showed
improvement from September. This index indicates that the economy
has an increased risk of sliding back into recession when compared
to prior recessions and double dips. Evidently traders elected to
ignore this report.

Positive comments from several automakers helped boost sentiment
with hopes that sales would not slow as expected. Ford's chief
analyst said he was sticking with his forecast from the beginning
of the month that November sales would be better than October.
GM CFO said sales would slow next year but they would not fall
off the table as expected. Analysts had speculated that incentives
would run their course and buyers would lose interest after a
year of special deals. Evidently the consumer has not given up
on new wheels completely and the competition between brands has
provided some amazing deals. In Denver several unique promotions
have surfaced like a six month job, $1500 monthly income and $195
in cash gets you a new Kia with no credit check. A ford dealer
is running a buy one get one free special. Buy an explorer and
get a ford focus free. These unique marketing offers are making
buyers rethink their need to trade in the current oil burner and
go on the hook for big payments. It helped the stocks of auto
companies as well with GM adding +3.20.

The biggest news was provided by investors themselves. Once the
good HPQ news and better than expected GE warning pushed stocks
over initial resistance at the open the buyers piled on. The key
ranges were Dow 8650, Nasdaq 1425 and SPX 925. These were key
levels of resistance dating back to June in come cases and once
broken the short covering began. TV commentators were stumbling
over themselves with bullish comments. Guest analysts could not
draw broken resistance lines fast enough in the allotted air time
because there were so many breakouts. The key here is the difference
between breakout and fakeout. On the surface it appears to be a
valid breakout based on "hope" that the bottom is behind us.

That hope may be called into question on Friday based on the
semi book-to-bill report on Thursday night. New orders fell by
-7.9% in October making it four consecutive monthly declines. It
would have been even steeper but they revised downward the number
from September to 0.80 from 0.84. Using the original number
from last month of .84 and the headline number for October of
73 that would have been a -13% drop instead of the revised -7.9%
drop. It is amazing how the magic numbers keep getting revised
with each succeeding period. BTB, Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls.
It almost looks like a conspiracy to let us down slowly by
managing the numbers. That would be illegal so I am sure it is
just a coincidence. At .73 this is the lowest ratio in nearly a
year. Every month the order inflow drops it pushes the tech
recovery a month farther into the future. With a six-month lead
time from order to delivery this means any possible recovery is
well into 2003 "IF" orders picked up next month. Typically the
holiday season is a low spot for manufacturers with forced
holidays and mandatory plant closings to save money until orders
arrive in the 1Q. This puts any recovery off until 3Q of 2003
at the earliest if historical trends continue.

The key SPX 925 level has been seen as the magic number to confirm
a new rally. This was above the 9/11/02 high of 924.02 and the
925.66 high from Nov-6th. Today's close of 933.76 is the first
new major relative closing high since August. The next confirmation
would be a close over the August closing high of 962. However, we
have to get past Friday first. Futures are down slightly on the
BTB news and the very over bought conditions. Much talk was made
of the desire to see the market higher by year end to avoid the
historic occurrence of three down years, something not seen since
the depression. The Dow would have to clear 10021 in the next five
weeks to prevent that label from sticking. Today's close for the
Dow put us at a +21.4% bounce off the October closing low of 7286.

Bullish talk is not going to help the economic conditions but it
may convince retail investors to come back to the market. Volume
today was very heavy with over five billion shares traded and over
two billion each on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The internals were lopsided
with a 6:1 ratio of up volume to down volume. Most of that volume
was institutions with large block orders being the norm rather
than the exception. The extreme bullishness pushed the VIX back
down to more historic levels at 27.37. That is still high but
well off the recent extreme numbers. If today's action can attract
some follow through tomorrow then bullish comments in the weekend
newspapers should entice retail investors home for the holidays
next week to be become buyers. With a record $80 billion going
into money market funds last week there is plenty of cash
available to fuel a further rally if the situation warranted it.

Does the situation warrant it? That depends on your time frame.
While I think everyone expects the markets to go up from here,
they may not have much further to run based on real economics.
The Dow has even stronger resistance ahead at 9050 and again at
9200. Many and I stress MANY technical analysts are predicting
that any rally will run out of steam at those levels without an
increase in real earnings to drive prices. Since 4Q earnings
warning season will start in earnest the week after Thanksgiving
we will get to see if those earnings are going to appear of if
the 4Q is going to dip back into an earnings recession and sink
stocks prices as well.

Retail sales are predicted to rise at most +0.4% and many feel
this is only wishful thinking. One survey reported on Thursday
showed that 65% of consumers were planning on spending less this
year due to the negative wealth effect from jobs and the market.
Nearly 50% surveyed were going to spend more than 45% less than
last year. Obviously retailers have their work cut out for them
and any terrorist event will make that goal even harder. If your
timeframe for investing is years then buying now and riding out
any further volatility probably will not hurt. If your time frame
is months then going long over Dow 9000 could be risky.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor

===============
Play-of-the-Day   (New BULLISH high-risk/high-reward play)
===============

ICOS Corp. - ICOS - close: 29.62 change: +1.90 stop: *text*

Company Description:
ICOS is a product-driven company that has expertise in both
protein-based and small molecule therapeutics. The Company
combines its capabilities in molecular, cellular and structural
biology, high throughput drug screening, medicinal chemistry and
gene expression profiling to develop highly innovative products
expected to have significant commercial potential. The Company
applies its integrated approach to erectile dysfunction and other
urologic disorders, sepsis, pulmonary arterial hypertension and
other cardiovascular diseases, and inflammatory diseases.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The current NASDAQ rally has many of the widely-watched tech
sector indices trading at multi-month highs.  Such is the case
with the BTK.K biotech index, which posted a 3.8% gain on
Thursday after breaking through resistance in the 370-375 area.
The overall group looks strong enough, but it's not an easy task
finding a specific biotech stock to play.  Some issues (such as
AMGN) just aren't showing enough upside movement.  Others (BGEN
and IMCL are good examples) have already seen steep gains over
the past few days and look due for a pullback.  However, ICOS
does not fall into either category.  The stock's chart shows
plenty of upside potential and a clearly-defined entry point.
Basically, we're looking for ICOS to power through resistance at
$30.00 and fill in the remainder of its April 30th gap.  This gap
was created when the FDA mandated that ICOS (and its partner Eli
Lilly) provide additional clinical studies, manufacturing
inspections, and labeling details before it would approve Cialis,
an impotence treatment designed to compete with Viagra.  This
effectively pushed back the drug's anticipated release date.
Investors bailed out in droves on speculation that something
would go wrong during this final trial period.  Fortunately for
ICOS everything seems to be proceeding smoothly.  Positive
results from the crucial Phase III study eliminated most of the
remaining uncertainty, and ICOS is now confident that Cialis will
be green-lighted in the second half of 2003.

Shares of ICOS got a shot in the arm last week when the European
Union said that Lilly ICOS (the joint venture of the two
companies) could begin marketing Cialis in EU countries.  The
stock remained under its 200-dma ($28.56) until Thursday, when
shares outperformed the BTK.X and gained 6.8%.  ICOS is now
threatening to break through the $30.00 level.  The double-top p-
n-f buy signal and rising MACD suggest that the stock will be
able to build on today's gains.  By entering this play on a move
above $30.05, we're hoping to capture a rally to the $37-$38
region.  If the play is triggered we'll use a stop at $26.72,
just under yesterday's low.  More conservative traders could
consider a stop slightly under today's low of $27.75.  Also
remember that there's always a certain amount of headline risk
when playing biotech stocks.  Negative study results or
unexpected FDA demands can cause several weeks of gains to
evaporate overnight.

Picked on November xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            11/05/02 (confirmed)





================
Market Sentiment
================

Semi-Bullish

by Steven Price

Looks like we finally got the bullish confirmation we were
looking for.   Today's rally saw several significant resistance
levels fall in the broader market indices.  Before we bring out
the cheerleaders, however, let's take a look at where we are and
what's ahead.

We've been looking at a possible bearish head and shoulders
formation in the Dow and S&P 500 (SPX) over the last month.
Until yesterday, it looked as though the breakdown would come to
fruition.  However, the right shoulder rollover came to a halt
with Wednesday's rally. Today's 222-point jump over 8800
surpassed the head of the formation. So now we definitely have a
failure of that pattern.  This should serve as notice for the
bears to step aside for the time being.  The move over 8800 in
the Dow and 925 in the SPX took some major buying power and I
wouldn't be surprised to see some short covering now that those
significant resistance levels have been broken.   That could
quickly take us up to the next resistance levels of Dow 9000 and
SPX 965.  The Dow actually topped out just under 9100 in August,
but once back above 9000, we could see some real momentum
building.

The Nasdaq Composite was an even bigger winner.  The tech index
blew through its August highs (1426), which had turned it back on
the last three tries.  It gained 48.20, and is now up 93 points
in two days.  While we may be due for a pullback, the bias is now
clearly bullish after such an impressive breakthrough.  I'll be
looking to enter long on a pullback anywhere above 1426.

The Nasdaq was led in part by the chip stocks, which continued
their recent explosion, following Hewlett-Packard's earnings
surprise after the bell last night. The Semiconductor Index (SOX)
not only broke higher after barely getting above its recent high
from the beginning of the month, it made up 27 points in a
heartbeat and broke above the August closing high of 363, to
finish at 365.30.  The only fly in the ointment is the intraday
high from August at 366, but that just seems downright nitpicky.
After the bell, we got the industry book-to-bill ratio for
October, which showed a 7.9% drop in new orders.  This was the
fourth straight monthly decline and was worse than expected.  The
combination of the SOX hitting the August high and a poor book-
to-bill would seem to indicate at least a mild pullback. However,
it seems that most of the bad news from the sector has been
followed by rallies, as long as the news was not as bad as
expected.  After all of the lowered revenue guidance and poor
future visibility revealed over the past earnings season, it is
frightening to imagine what the institutions were actually
expecting.

It is hard to find a sector that was in the red today, but one
place to start would be the bond market.  The bearish head and
shoulders pattern that was forming in the ten-year note (ty02z)
looks to have broken its neckline and can be used for
confirmation of the shift from bonds into equities.

The other sector to take a major hit was the HMOs.  UnitedHealth
Group (UNH) made comments at an investors meeting that pricing
may have peaked, causing concerns about margins in the industry.
The HMO index dropped 3.5%, led by UNH (-4.86), Wellpoint (-
3.50).  With rising healthcare costs, the HMOs that have managed
costs properly have simply raised premiums and posted impressive
profits.  With the possibility that they can no longer raise
prices, rising costs could take a serious bite out of future
earnings. UNH still predicted significant profits in 2003 and
2004, but apparently investors were more than a little spooked.

Predicting tomorrow's movement is a little tricky.  With the
breakthroughs in the Dow, SPX and Nasdaq, there is definitely
room to run on the upside.  However, with the SOX at the August
high and a poor book-to-bill report, I can see some profit taking
in the sector. If the chips pull back, expect the rest of the
techs to follow.  If the BTB doesn't cause a pullback, then look
out above for Nasdaq 1500.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8845

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8523
 50-dma: 8183
200-dma: 9209

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  933

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  899
 50-dma:  868
200-dma:  987

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1118

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1037
 50-dma:  941
200-dma: 1130

-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  After just barely breaking over
the relative highs from earlier in the month, the SOX shot all
the way up through the August high of 363, finishing the day at
365.  The intraday high back on August 19 was actually 366, and
after the book to bill ratio showed its fourth straight monthly
decline this evening, we may be left deciding whether a pullback
tomorrow is actually a rejection at resistance, or simply a
pullback after a 53 point gain in two days. If we get a continued
run, then the PnF target of 412 coincides exactly with the 200-
dma of 412.66 (descending) and could be the next target.  If we
do get a run to that level, I'd be thinking about picking up some
puts on the sector in the 400 area, with a stop over the 200-dma.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 365

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 314
 50-dma: 274
200-dma: 412

Market Volatility

As the broad market rally continues, the VIX remains squarely
under 30, finishing the day at 27.37.  As stocks are purchased
the most common option trade in the market is the covered call
write. This occurs when purchasers sell out of the money calls to
reduce the cost of the stock.  If the stock goes up and is called
away, there is still a profit and if it doesn't reach the short
strike by expiration, the writer gets to keep the premium.  This
creates selling pressure on the options, thus lowering implied
volatility.  For a graph of the trend in the Dow compared to the
VIX, see Wednesday's Market Wrap.


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 27.37 -1.29
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 44.73 -0.09

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.75        921,070       690,855
Equity Only    0.62        780,719       486,353
OEX            0.88         29,249        25,660
QQQ            2.17         44,781        97,476

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          45      + 3     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    75      + 6     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   70      + 3     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       63      + 7     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       67      + 5     Bull Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Arms Index   0.84
10-Day Arms Index  1.09
21-Day Arms Index  1.11
55-Day Arms Index  1.18


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1972           779
NASDAQ     2214          1013

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         39              24
NASDAQ       70              37

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,619
NASDAQ   1,615

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/12/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials increased short positions by 4,000 contracts, while
slightly reducing the long side.  Small traders increased long
positions by 3,000 contracts, while reducing the short side by
6,000.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/22/02      432,775   463,827   (31,052)   (3.5%)
10/29/02      437,565   468,557   (30,992)   (3.4%)
11/05/02      438,546   472,384   (33,838)   (3.7%)
11/12/02      437,683   476,540   (38,857)   (4.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/22/02      134,641    72,681    61,960     29.8%
10/29/02      137,740    75,587    62,153     29.1%
11/05/02      138,604    76,032    65,572     30.5%
11/12/02      141,389    70,624    70,765     33.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced the long side by 3,500 contracts while
leaving the short side virtually unchanged.  Small traders, on
the other hand, reduced short positions by 4,000 contracts and
longs by just 700.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/22/02       48,954     54,088    (5,134) ( 4.9%)
10/29/02       47,837     55,261    (7,324) ( 7.1%)
11/05/02       49,128     56,121    (6,993) ( 6.6%)
11/12/02       45,647     55,892   (10,245) (10.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/22/02       10,202     8,892     1,310     6.6%
10/29/02       10,584     9,419     1,165     5.8%
11/05/02       13,355    12,903       452     1.7%
11/12/02       12,698     8,801     3,897    18.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials left positions relatively unchanged, with a slight
reduction in both longs and shorts.  Small traders increased the
long side slightly and left shorts around the same level.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/22/02       22,189    13,448    8,741      24.5%
10/29/02       21,800    13,337    8,463      24.1%
11/05/02       22,533    15,687    6,846      17.9%
11/12/02       22,283    14,953    7,330      19.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/22/02        4,445     9,270    (4,825)   (35.1%)
10/29/02        5,602    11,090    (5,488)   (32.9%)
11/05/02        5,089     8,735    (3,646)   (26.4%)
11/12/02        5,736     8,513    (2,777)   (19.5)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 11-21-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  KRON

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  SPC
  Closed Bearish Plays:  DIA

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     ICOS
  Bullish Play Updates:  AHC
  Bearish Play Updates:  CW, NTES
  Closed Bearish Plays:  HGSI

Split Trader Stock Splits
  Split Announcement:
                         CCFH: 3-for-2 Split Announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Kronos Inc. - KRON - close: 43.80 change: +2.31 stop: 42.49 *new*

Yesterday's close above 110 on the software index had us looking
for a powerful breakout, and the bulls certainly didn't
disappoint!  With sector giants MSFT and ORCL both powering to
multi-month highs, the GSO.X sliced through congestion in the 111
area and tacked on 5.5%.  Shares of KRON posted an identical gain
and closed at levels not seen since May 16th.  The stock is
behaving just as we hoped it would after breaking above
resistance at $40.00 - too bad the market doesn't always
cooperate this nicely!  While today's action in the GSO.X is very
encouraging, the index is approaching possible resistance near
the 200-dma (117) and 120 level.  Given the recent strength we
believe the bulls will be able to plow through this region.  If
the sector rolls over we'd expect KRON to find support near
$41.00.  Our stop, however, has been moved up to $42.49.  This
should protect a gain of roughly 5%.  We've also set an official
profit-target at $44.98.  We'll close this play if KRON trades at
or above that level.  More aggressive traders could look for
shares to retest the May highs near $46.00.  On a final note,
Kronos was scheduled to make a presentation this morning at a JP
Morgan conference.  Judging from the lack of any news releases
today, the company did not make any major announcements at the
meeting.

Picked on November 20th at  $40.51
Results since picked:        +3.29
Earnings Date             10/29/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

St. Paul Co. - SPC - close: 35.76 change: +0.33 stop: 33.93 *new*

Thursday's equity rally was broad-based.  Tech stocks led the
charge, while everything from cyclicals to pharmaceuticals posted
solid gains.  The IUX.X insurance index, which only barely
finished in the green, was a notable laggard.  The group may have
been pressured by news that Federal prosecutors had subpoenaed
Allstate (ALL) as part of an investigation related to the
accounting practices of Computer Associates (CA).  ALL wasn't
implicated in any wrong-doing, but these days it's not unusual to
see a "guilt-by-association" reaction by investors.  ALL finished
the session with a 2% loss.  Today's sector weakness helps to
explain the relatively small gain posted by SPC, which ascended
by nearly 1%.  Shares moved to a multi-month high of $36.50
before being dragged lower by the IUX.X.  Overall we're pleased
with the way SPC continues to distance itself from resistance at
$35.00.  If the insurance sector can find its footing on Friday
we think SPC will be able to reach another relative high.  Short-
term traders can consider new long entries if the stock moves
above today's high.  Our stop has been bumped up to $33.93, two
cents under Tuesday's low.

Picked on November 18th at $35.11
Results since picked:       +0.65
Earnings Date            10/23/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Diamonds - DIA - close: 88.74 change: +1.81 stop: 87.06

So much for that burgeoning head-and-shoulders pattern on the
Dow.  The bulls made their presence felt on Wednesday, as the
index was lifted to a gain of almost 150 points after trading
near 8450 early in the session.  The positive momentum carried
over into today's session after Dow component Hewlett-Packard
(HPQ) reported better-than-expected earnings.  Wall Street also
keyed in on this morning's jobless claims data, which showed a
decline of 25,000.  That took the indicator to its lowest level
in four months.  Our short play in the Diamonds was stopped out
at the opening tick of $87.19 for a loss of 1.5%.  So where is
the Dow headed next?  Heavy selling in bonds suggests that the
current rally may have staying power.  Bulls will also be pleased
with the strong volume that backed today's rally.  Should the Dow
continue higher, we'd expect the bears to put up a fight at the
9000 level.  Additional resistance lies overhead at the 200-dma
(9200).  For more on the Dow's technicals, check out tonight's
Market Wrap.

Picked on November 7th at $85.89
Results since picked:      -1.30
Earnings Date           xx/xx/xx






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

ICOS Corp. - ICOS - close: 29.62 change: +1.90 stop: *text*

Company Description:
ICOS is a product-driven company that has expertise in both
protein-based and small molecule therapeutics. The Company
combines its capabilities in molecular, cellular and structural
biology, high throughput drug screening, medicinal chemistry and
gene expression profiling to develop highly innovative products
expected to have significant commercial potential. The Company
applies its integrated approach to erectile dysfunction and other
urologic disorders, sepsis, pulmonary arterial hypertension and
other cardiovascular diseases, and inflammatory diseases.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The current NASDAQ rally has many of the widely-watched tech
sector indices trading at multi-month highs.  Such is the case
with the BTK.K biotech index, which posted a 3.8% gain on
Thursday after breaking through resistance in the 370-375 area.
The overall group looks strong enough, but it's not an easy task
finding a specific biotech stock to play.  Some issues (such as
AMGN) just aren't showing enough upside movement.  Others (BGEN
and IMCL are good examples) have already seen steep gains over
the past few days and look due for a pullback.  However, ICOS
does not fall into either category.  The stock's chart shows
plenty of upside potential and a clearly-defined entry point.
Basically, we're looking for ICOS to power through resistance at
$30.00 and fill in the remainder of its April 30th gap.  This gap
was created when the FDA mandated that ICOS (and its partner Eli
Lilly) provide additional clinical studies, manufacturing
inspections, and labeling details before it would approve Cialis,
an impotence treatment designed to compete with Viagra.  This
effectively pushed back the drug's anticipated release date.
Investors bailed out in droves on speculation that something
would go wrong during this final trial period.  Fortunately for
ICOS everything seems to be proceeding smoothly.  Positive
results from the crucial Phase III study eliminated most of the
remaining uncertainty, and ICOS is now confident that Cialis will
be green-lighted in the second half of 2003.

Shares of ICOS got a shot in the arm last week when the European
Union said that Lilly ICOS (the joint venture of the two
companies) could begin marketing Cialis in EU countries.  The
stock remained under its 200-dma ($28.56) until Thursday, when
shares outperformed the BTK.X and gained 6.8%.  ICOS is now
threatening to break through the $30.00 level.  The double-top p-
n-f buy signal and rising MACD suggest that the stock will be
able to build on today's gains.  By entering this play on a move
above $30.05, we're hoping to capture a rally to the $37-$38
region.  If the play is triggered we'll use a stop at $26.72,
just under yesterday's low.  More conservative traders could
consider a stop slightly under today's low of $27.75.  Also
remember that there's always a certain amount of headline risk
when playing biotech stocks.  Negative study results or
unexpected FDA demands can cause several weeks of gains to
evaporate overnight.

Picked on November xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            11/05/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 55.77 change: +0.79 stop: 52.39*new*

Sliding higher again were shares of AHC as the price of oil per
barrel pulled back from yesterday's highs.  The price per barrel
continues to climb from its lows late last week.  The question
sector analysts and speculators are wondering is how will all of
the Iraqi games, Al-Queda news and more affect oil's direction.
It looks like oil could trade to $28 a barrel before hitting
resistance again.  Should this occur it may be enough to fuel a
breakout in the OIX oil index.  The CBOE OIX.X oil index is
looking ready for a breakout but has yet to rally through
resistance at 260 and its 50-dma.  This index is also facing
heavy resistance on its PnF chart.  A breakout there could
certainly spur shorts to cover.  Speaking of short covering, we
could be seeing some of that in shares of AHC now.  The stock has
been putting in a very steady climb and traded as high as $56.07
this afternoon.  We're certainly encouraged but feel that the
stock could easily pull back a couple of points before it's next
push higher.  Of course if the bulls keep pushing the market
higher then AHC may not stop until it hits real resistance at
$60.  For those traders looking for new entries, the best
strategy would appear to be a dip and bounce near the $53 or $54
levels.  Considering the recent moves we're going to adjust our
stop to $52.39, which puts our current risk (from entry) at just
two-cents.  We're also going to inch down our official exit price
from $59.94 to $59.75.  AHC also had some good news today.  A
Reuters story mentioned Equatorial Guinea had approved some new
drilling and AHC would be drilling three of 16 new wells planned
in the country.  In other news Amerada Hess increased its stake
in fuel-cell maker, Nuvera Fuel Cells Inc.  AHC now owns 53% of
Nuvera's outstanding shares.  Currently, PI is up over 6% in this
play.  Prudent traders may want to put a conservative stop on
half their position to protect some profits.  A suggestion could
be a stop at $54.99, which is almost a 5% gain from our entry
price.

Picked on November 12th at $52.41
Results since picked:       +3.36
Earnings Date            10/24/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Curtiss Wright - CW - close: 65.38 change: +0.33 stop: 67.82

With the broader market soaring on Thursday, the DFX.X defense
index posted its largest gain in over two weeks.  Strong
performances by GD, HON, and NOC helped to push the DFX to a 3.0%
gain.  CW did not participate in this rally.  Shares managed to
add half a percentage point, but that's hardly worth writing home
about on a day when the defense sector outperformed a 222-point
rally on Dow Jones.  CW's relative weakness is an indication that
shares will continue to decline from the relative highs near
$70.50.  Bulls will point out that the stock has moved back above
its 200-dma ($65.22) and the daily stochastics are reversing from
oversold.  Those are indeed positive signs for shareholders of
CW.  However, we believe the stock will have a very difficult
time moving higher if the DFX begins to roll over below its 50-
dma at 163 and/or the overall market reverses course.  Should our
outlook prove to be incorrect, our stop at $67.82 will take us
out of this play with a manageable 4.4% loss.  New entries can be
gauged on a move below $64.00 if CW heads lower on Friday.

Picked on November 19th at $64.94
Results since picked:       -0.44
Earnings Date            10/29/02 (confirmed)




---

Netease.com - NTES - close: 7.79 change: -0.40 stop: 8.81 *new*

So far, so good!  This short play was triggered at Wednesday's
opening trade when NTES gapped under our entry point.  The stock
immediately cooperated with our bearish expectations and finished
the session with a loss of more than 10%.  Today's broader tech
sector momentum gave the bulls a glimmer of hope, but it wasn't
meant to be.  The NASDAQ finished just off its highs of the day,
while NTES closed just one cent off the worst levels of the
session.  The stock seemed to be completely oblivious to what the
rest of the market was doing!  That's very good news for the
bears.  Netease just can't seem to find many willing buyers at
these levels.  The rollover from $10.00 has triggered a wave of
profit-taking and there aren't any substantial levels of support
until $6.00.  Should NTES bounce tomorrow, aggressive traders
still looking to open positions can consider short entries on a
failed rally near $8.20.  In case you missed it yesterday, we've
established an exit target at $6.32.  This is two cents above the
early-November high.  We've also moved our stop-loss to $8.81,
two cents above break-even.  The PremierInvestor newsletter
currently has an 11.3% profit in this hypothetical trade.

Picked on November 20th at $8.79
Results since picked:      +1.00
Earnings Date           11/05/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 8.61 chg: -0.05 stop: 9.51

Here come the bulls.  The Dow Industrials power to another triple
digit gain while the Nasdaq composite added 3.39% in heavy
trading on Thursday.  This bullish tide helped lift the biotech
boat and the BTK.X biotech sector added 3.8%.  Out doing them all
were shares of HGSI, which surged over 12% with strong volume
over more than 6 million shares.  Why the big move in HGSI?  We
can't tell you.  There was no new news for the company.  We did
notice a couple of positive announcements for other biotech
companies but nothing that really stood out as beneficial for
HGSI.  Given the size of the move and the strength behind (a.k.a.
volume) this new reversal in direction for HGSI might have legs.
The overall trend is still down but the close over the $10 mark
was a considerable coup by the bulls today.  Fortunately, we had
our stop at $9.51, which would have closed the position with a
two-cent loss.  Something about it made us pause and thus our
cautious comments in Tuesday's update.  It's never enjoyable to
see a decent gain evaporate in one session but it feels better
knowing we didn't turn it into a [big] loser.  Could someone on
Wall Street know something the rest of the market doesn't?
Absolutely, so keep your eyes on the news headlines for HGSI.
Either that or a couple of big shorts got scared with the broader
market rally and decided to high-tail it out of HGSI.

Picked on November 1st at  $9.49
Results since picked:      -0.02
Earnings Date           10/29/02 (confirmed)






=================================================================
Split Trader Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

CCF Holding Announces 3-for-2 Split

CCF Holding Company (NASDAQ Smallcap: CCFH) announced today that its
Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split.  The new shares
will be distributed on December 19, 2002 to stockholders of record on
December 4, 2002.

For a current quote, click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CCFH


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

STI     Suntrust Banks             61.00     +0.94
GE      General Electric           26.85     +2.05
WHR     Whirlpool Corp             52.43     +2.76
DD      DuPont                     44.16     +1.54
EP      El Paso Corp               11.33     +0.86
BZH     Beazer Homes               62.90     +2.32
RL      Polo Ralph Lauren          24.39     +1.21
PLB     American Italian Pasta     35.66     +2.48

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TXN     Texas Instruments          19.68     +1.26
SEPR    Sepracor Inc               10.15     +1.16
MOT     Motorola Inc               10.41     +1.06
TWTR    Tweeter Home Ent.          10.75     +1.45
NTAP    Network Appliance          13.91     +1.98
DRIV    Digital River              13.83     +2.14
RFMD    RF Microdevices            11.07     +1.19
ADSK    Autodesk Inc               15.21     +1.50
CMRC    Commerce One                5.14     +1.02

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change
PSFT    Peoplesoft Inc             21.03     +1.39
MXIM    Maxim Integrated           42.64     +3.08
ISSX    Internet Security Sys.     24.17     +1.13
HON     Honeywell Intl.            24.68     +1.78
KRI     Knight-Ridder Inc          62.75     +1.14
OVER    Overture Services          26.18     +1.80
MWD     Morgan Stanley             46.40     +2.89
BCC     Boise Cascade              26.31     +2.17
VMC     Vulcan Materials           37.72     +1.13
SEIC    SEI Investments            31.70     +3.20
TTH     Telecom HOLDRS             30.14     +1.29

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

WLP     Wellpoint Health Ntwk.     70.65     -3.50
AMSG    Amsurg Corp                22.90     -2.05
MME     Mid-Atlantic Medical       32.10     -3.80
PEP     Pepsico Inc                42.19     -1.56
CL      Colgate-Palmolive          51.40     -1.73

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change
SXT     Sensient Tech.             24.90     -0.50




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