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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 11/22/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-22-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Is It Real?
Play-of-the-Day:  Hanging Up On Bad News
Watch List:       APOL, DVN, HSIC, MSFT, INTC, TBL, and tons more!
Market Sentiment: Reading Between the Lines

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 11-22        WE 11-15        WE 11-08        WE 11-01
DOW     8804.84 +226.75 8579.09 + 41.96 8537.13 + 19.49 + 73.65
Nasdaq  1468.74 + 57.60 1411.14 + 51.86 1359.29 -  1.41 + 29.57
S&P-100  475.03 + 11.31  463.72 +  6.33  457.39 -  0.77 +  2.51
S&P-500  930.55 + 20.72  909.83 + 15.09  894.74 -  6.22 +  3.31
W5000   8783.13 +199.08 8584.05 +145.25 8438.80 - 63.40 + 51.56
RUT      400.00 + 14.08  385.92 +  6.93  378.99 -  4.46 + 10.81
TRAN    2313.98 - 19.12 2333.20 - 13.68 2346.88 + 31.20 +  2.37
VIX       26.73 -  4.10   30.83 -  2.73   33.56 -  0.42 -  2.29
VXN       46.49 -  3.19   49.68 -  2.33   52.01 +  2.15 -  0.53
TRIN       1.05            0.67            1.80            0.95
Put/Call   0.70            0.57            1.05            0.71
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Is It Real?
by Jim Brown

The markets pulled back slightly on Friday but the Dow still
managed to post a +226 point gain for the week and stretch its
winning streak to seven weeks. Considering the gains over the
last seven weeks this was an impressive feat. The Nasdaq also
managed to close at levels not seen since June. Overall it was
a great week and the streak of consecutive years this week was
positive has now stretched to ten.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily



Friday was a sleeper day. We traded very close to the flat line
all day and only a late afternoon drop kept the averages from
closing positive. Comments out of Russia contained a warning
from Putin to Bush to not attack Iraq without full UN consent.
This caused traders who were starting to feel bullish again to
decide being safe meant being flat over the weekend. That -65
point Dow drop just before the close managed to push the index
to the low of the day.

Friday started off bad but quickly recovered after Cisco was
cut to a "sell" by Fulcrum after they said revenue growth for
2003- and 2004 will not be sufficient to offset the impact of
declining grow margins. They set a 12-month price target of $11
and said the cost of expensing options could cut earnings by
as much as 60%. Cisco was only down marginally by -.35 cents
on the news but the tone was set for the day.

Salomon Smith Barney cut PSFT and SEBL on valuation concerns
from a lack of any corporate IT recovery. Brocade warned that
earnings would fall and the COO was leaving. BRCD lost -27% on
the news with a drop to $5.27. All these events cast a spell
over the tech sector and the Nasdaq lost -20 points in early
trading.

On better note Taiwan Semiconductor, the biggest foundry in the
world said an anticipated -7% drop in demand had not materialized
and they were adding capacity to accommodate a brisk increase in
orders for PC products. Did anybody pickup on that? The expected
drop in demand did not appear and capacity utilization was
increasing due to orders for computer products. This is not a
small side sector manufacturer. This is the largest chip foundry
in the world.

This good news offset the negative semiconductor book-to-bill
report from Thursday night. That ratio dropped to .73 from .84
the prior month. This was the fourth month of significant decline
and indicated there was no recovery in the chip sector in October.
This is the STEEPEST three-month decline on record and orders
are approaching the lows from last year. It is not expected to
get better soon. AMAT said they expected orders in Q4 to drop
another -20%. This is directly contrary to the comments from
Taiwan Semi today. However, the B-t-B ratio is backward looking
and is for October. The TSM data is for the current month and
to some extent is forward looking since they are having to add
capacity for current order flow.

This brings up the distinct possibility that the October period
was the bottom and as the largest foundry in the world and the
most likely to see the first swell of orders, the TSM data could
be the leading indicator of a coming rebound. According to the
latest CIO Magazine Tech poll in October, more CIOs expected to
decrease spending in the current quarter than increase spending.
This was the first time in eight months the sentiment was negative.
If something has suddenly appeared to turn the economy around then
it is a stealth attack and it appeared in the last four weeks.
Maybe the Fed has decided cutting rates is not working and just
decided to replace all the government computers instead.

There are mixed messages coming out of the box makers. Dell gave
a glowing outlook for its own business but was criticized for
not being even more aggressive. HPQ beat estimates and affirmed
guidance for the 4Q and were criticized for "possible" channel
stuffing and number manipulation. It appears the bears have
taken over the analyst community but then bad news always sells
more newspapers than good. Dan Niles has gone on record several
times recently as saying a rebound was underway and even called
the HPQ surprise in advance. Both Dell and HPQ showed gains in
Europe of +15% so obviously there was plenty of market share for
both.

Other areas strong for both companies and for IBM was the server
market. All showed gains and Dell was knocking the cover off
the ball. If companies are quietly using their IT budget dollars
to beef up their server farms then the next wave will be desktop
computers. You don't upgrade the desktops and then try to feed
them with servers that are multiple generations old. You do the
infrastructure first and then the individual computers. Another
problem in the computer sector is price deflation. In 1999 the
average 400MHZ desktop replacement for the Y2K upgrade was $2,500.
The average 2.4 MHZ desktop replacement today costs less than
$1,000 without a monitor. Today I installed a 2.4GHZ, 1GB ram,
360GB of disk, CD burner, DVD player plus all the bells and
whistles and it cost me less than $900 using an existing monitor.

PC box makers are faced with trying to produce revenue growth
while computer prices are falling 10%-15% per month. In order
to get +15% growth they have to sell +30% more boxes than they
did the prior period. Just selling the same number of units
would cut their revenue by -15% every quarter. It is a cutthroat
market and it is not expected to see any sudden price surges.
The fact that HPQ and Dell are showing revenue growth at all
in the current economy is amazing. Obviously investors have not
picked up on this fact of life as Dell stock has dropped -10%
since they announced earnings one week ago.

Now, back to the TSM news. I don't want to apply too much to
the event just in case it is a blip and not the start of a new
trend. If you remember a month ago I reported that they also
said they were seeing a flurry of last minute rush orders to
fill holiday shipments. So consider this. In October they say
they have a flurry of unexpected orders. In November the expected
drop did not appear and they are having to add capacity for
December. This is normally a slow period for chipmakers with
forced plant closings and mandatory holiday vacations. Do you
see the possible conclusions here? Rising demand during a
normally slow period. It could be a blip, just an inventory
replenishment phase, but it could also be the real thing. The
Fed has cut rates 12 times in two years and cheap money may
finally be doing its job.

I know the preceding paragraphs may be bordering on heresy to
some readers but after three years of gloom and doom it may be
time to start considering the bullish alternative. Another
leading indicator of impending economic rebound is copper.
Copper has risen nearly 15% since mid October and there is only
one reason for buying copper. You are going to make wire, pipe,
circuit boards and things like industrial equipment. Copper has
historically led manufacturing rebounds by 6-9 months.

Another measure of a real rally is the small caps. The Russell
2000 stocks. The Russell has risen +23% since the October lows.
This is less than the Nasdaq's gain of +32% but still very
respectable. When rebound rallies are bear market rallies the
big cap indexes tend to outperform the small caps. They are
liquid and easy to move in and out with large sums of cash.
They are a favorite of funds when there is no conviction. When
funds think the rally is for real they spread out into small
caps to capture the maximum price appreciation of any future
rally cycle. The Russell is up +8% in the last two weeks. There
is definitely money flowing into this group. Personally I think
the Nasdaq has out performed because the majority of Nasdaq
stocks are no longer mid or big caps with many high flyers now
priced in the single digits. They are not specifically "small
caps" due to the number of shares outstanding but were definitely
"small prices" and that attracted larger dollars.

Going forward we are just not going to explode to Dow 12,000
over the Thanksgiving holidays. There are far too few signs of
a pending recovery and there are still sectors under attack.
Airlines, health care, oil, financial, etc. Fourth quarter
warning season starts after Thanksgiving. There is also strong
resistance just above us. The Dow has resistance at 9050 and
9205. The Nasdaq at 1485 and 1504. These are significant
resistance levels and are not likely to be broken on the first
attempt. Many analysts think Dow 9200 will be the high for the
rest of the year. That remains to be seen but we could hit that
area just as the first wave of warnings hits us. That resistance
coupled with a little reinforcement of negative sentiment could
slow the momentum. Many think that a recovery will appear by
Q3-2003 but that the recent market gains have already priced in
that conclusion. It is almost a sure thing that there will be
another "spectacular" terrorist event between now and Q3 and
with the increased news coverage of what a soft target our malls
are the holiday retail season could be a disaster.

The bottom line for me is still optimism. I see bullishness
breaking out all over and glimmers of hope on the horizon. Chip
orders picking up, auto sales not as bad as expected, home sales
are still strong and we have a rising market to help rebuild
consumer confidence. This type of good news tends to feed on
itself and we have seen many times recently that bad news is
being ignored. While I would not go out and borrow against my
home equity to invest in the market now I would not bet against
it either. We may be headed higher. Maybe not straight up but if
the last seven weeks are any indication the trend has definitely
changed. Is it real? It is for everybody that bought the dip on
October 10th. Don't you wish you had that time machine now.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown

"The stock market is that creation of man which humbles him
the most".  - Anonymous


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH)
=========================
(( new high-risk/high-reward long))

Alcatel - ALA - close: 5.71 change: +0.29 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Alcatel designs, develops and builds innovative and competitive
communications networks, enabling carriers, service providers and
enterprises to deliver any type of content, such as voice, data
and multimedia, to any type of consumer, anywhere in the world.
Relying on its leading and comprehensive products and solutions
portfolio, stretching from end-to-end optical infrastructures,
fixed and mobile networks to broadband access, Alcatel's
customers can focus on optimizing their service offerings and
revenue streams. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
A scan of recent news releases for Alcatel doesn't give the bulls
a whole lot to cheer about.  This week started off with a
downgrade from Deutsche Securities, who issued a "sell" rating on
the company's stock.  Investors responded by taking ALA below the
$5.00 level. This was followed on Wednesday by a debt rating
reduction from Moody's.  One would expect that this double-whammy
would've sent the stock even lower.  But contrary to these
expectations, ALA has actually rallied sharply over the past
three days.  Lately Wall Street has done a fine job of ignoring
bad news...Especially in beaten-down sectors such as telecom.
The IXTCX combined telecom index has rallied roughly 50% off of
its October lows.  The index tacked on 1.5% and traded to a new
relative high on Friday, despite the general malaise that plagued
the rest of the market.  It looks like a test of the 200-dma at
$124.46 is just around the corner.  A breakout above this moving
average would clear the way for a rally to the next level of
historical resistance at 140.

There is also a good deal of upside potential for ALA if it can
break though its own overhead resistance at $6.00.  Should the
bulls conquer this level, we think shares could rally to the mid-
July high of $7.37.  The reversing daily stochastics (5,3,3) and
double-top point-and-figure buy signal suggest that ALA will be
able to continue its recent uptrend.  But by waiting to activate
this play until the stock trades above $6.05, we'll ensure that
the stock is trading at multi-month highs before entering our
hypothetical long position.  If the play is triggered our stop-
loss will be set at $5.47, one cent under today's low.  This is
also under the short-term trend of higher lows on the 60-minute
chart.  Our official profit-target for this play will be set at
$7.34.  We wouldn't rule out a rally to the 200-dma at $8.50, but
given our short-term timeframe we'll be more than happy with a
move to the July highs.  This play has been classified as "high-
risk/high-reward" because of ALA's recent volatility and
relatively low stock price.  Traders who are bullish on telecom
but are looking for something a little less aggressive might want
to check out the TTH Telecom HOLDRS, which are traded on the
AMEX.  TTH might be a good long play if it can break above its
200-dma.

Picked on November xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/30/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Apollo Group - APOL - close: 43.81 change: +0.28

WHAT TO WATCH: The economic downturn over the past few years has
been a boon for adult educator providers, as more of the
workforce has sought to improve their marketability by returning
to college.  Business must be moving along at a pretty clip -
APOL, COCO, and UOPX are all trading near all-time highs.  APOL
looks like a good long play because the stock has rallied above
both its 50-dma ($42.55) and bearish p-n-f resistance.  The
uptrending oscillators are hinting at a retest of the $46.00
level.  However, a trade at $45.00 will create a double-top p-n-f
buy signal and a bullish vertical count of $60.00.  That's a bit
ambitious for short-term traders, but a move to the $50.00 area
wouldn't be out of the question if the broader market remains
strong.  We'd be looking for entries on a pullback to the 50-dma.




---

Borders Group - BGP - close: 19.24 change: -0.55

WHAT TO WATCH: Borders' earnings report on Thursday night was in-
line with analyst expectations.  The company showed improvement
on a year-over-year basis, but still reported a 2-cent loss.
These numbers hardly seem to justify the stock's recent rally off
the $17.00 level.  BGP has now started to roll over from the 200-
dma ($19.78) and psychological resistance at $20.00.  The daily
stochastics are also beginning to release from the overbought
region.  Short entries with an acceptable risk/reward ratio could
be targeted at current levels, using a stop slightly above
$20.00.  We'd be looking for BGP to fall back to the 50-dma near
$17.50.




---

Clear Channel - CCU - close: 41.55 change: +0.25

WHAT TO WATCH: The news front has been mostly quiet for CCU, but
that didn't stop the stock from trading to new relative highs.
Shares have above resistance at $40.00 and the 200-dma at $40.96,
which also happens to be the location of the 61% retracement from
the May highs to July lows.  Today's breakout above the 200-dma
($40.96) has opened the door for a rally to the $45-$46 area.
Bullish traders could think about going long at current levels,
with a stop under $38.50.




---

Devon Energy - DVN - close: 45.22 change: -1.13

WHAT TO WATCH: A weak third-quarter earnings report pressured
shares of DVN, which sold off from $50.00 in early November.  The
stock rebounded from bullish support on the p-n-f chart but was
unable to conquer the 200-dma at $46.75.  Now that DVN has
started to rollover we think a retest of the $42-$43 area might
be forthcoming.  That's not a whole lot of downside, but short-
term traders may be able to capture 5%-7%.  Today's relative
weakness versus UTY.X utility index (which gained more than 3%)
is a promising development for the bears.




---

Henry Schein - HSIC - close: 43.60 change: -2.05

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this dental and medical supply company
plummeted through the 200-dma ($47.70) on Thursday after the
company said it expected 2003 earnings to come in at $2.93-$2.98
per share.  Analysts were previously expecting full-year results
in the $2.95-$3.05 range.  The stock was also pressured by news
that rival Patterson Dental (PDCO) reported worse-than-expected
earnings.  Shares have fallen below bullish p-n-f support on
strong volume.  The descending oscillators indicate that HSIC may
retest its July lows near $39.00.  Aggressive traders can target
entries at current levels.  A failed rally near $46.00 might also
yield a shorting opportunity.



---

Intel Corp - INTC - close: 20.05 change: -0.16

WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor bears just can't get a break.  An
explosive two-day rally propelled the SOX.X up to resistance at
365.  Last night's book-to-bill number provided the perfect
excuse for a sector pullback.  The October data showed a 7.9%
decline; the fourth consecutive month the indicator posted a
loss.  This evidence of continued weak demand could've tanked the
SOX.  However, Friday's news from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) gave
Wall Street a much more optimistic picture of future growth.  The
company reported that it had recently seen an increase in demand
for PC and communications products.  This led TSM to raise its
fourth-quarter shipment expectations.  The SOX.X traded flat on
today's conflicting data, but the bears will be on the defensive
once again if the index starts to move towards the 400 level.
Should this be the case, INTC looks like it could get a quick 10%
pop.  Shares have moved above resistance at $20.00 and the daily
chart shows no other major obstacles until the 200-dma at $22.48.
Watch for a move above $20.51 to provide a possible entry point.
Other potential (bullish) chip plays include ALTR, NVDA, and MU.




---

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 58.20 change: +0.36

WHAT TO WATCH: We're impressed with how MSFT traded on Friday.
The stock extended the previous session's breakout above
resistance at $57.00 and showed good relative strength versus the
NASDAQ and GSO.X.  Speaking of the software index, it's trading
at multi-month highs after blasting through the 110 level.  The
overall tech sector appears to be pretty strong and MSFT looks
like it might be able to eventually retest the $65.00 area.  The
stock maxed out today after briefly moving above the April highs.
A move above the intraday high ($58.30) would offer a potential
bullish action point.  Entries could also be considered on a
pullback to $57.00.




---

Timberland - TBL - close: 35.55 change: -0.71

WHAT TO WATCH: The RLX.X retail index has traded sideways after
its steep rebound from the October lows near 245.  Bearish
forecasts for the holiday season and negative news out of the WMT
camp have helped to keep a lid on the sector.  The RLX.X has
recently underperformed the Dow Jones and it might head back
towards the 275 area next week if the broader market loses its
bullish momentum.  Shares of shoe manufacturer Timberland look
like a good short if this occurs.  The stock has started to
rollover from its 200-dma at $36.70, and the daily stochastics
(5,3,3) are just beginning to release from overbought.  There are
no clear levels of support until the $32.50-$33.00 area.  Bearish
traders could think about getting short on another rollover from
the 200-dma or a break under today's low ($35.23).




---

Nortel Networks - NT - close: $1.62 change: +0.03

WHAT TO WATCH: A $1.62 share price looks pretty attractive if you
think the tech rally will continue but the more than 200% gain
from its lows might make some traders pause.  Is NT overbought or
still way undervalued?  The industry isn't show much improvement
but volume was very strong when shares of NT broke out over heavy
resistance at 41.50 on Thursday.  Shares ticked higher again into
the weekend.  Is this an entry point for bulls?  We'd consider it
a play but probably use a tight stop to keep our risk very
limited.  An initial target for aggressive traders might be the
$2.00 level (a 23% gain).  A dip back to $1.50 could be a
tempting entry point as well.

---

AT& Wireless - AWE - close: $7.89 change: +0.23

WHAT TO WATCH: The wireless group has been participating in the
recent rally and shares of AWE are poised for a strong breakout
over resistance at $8.00.  While the stock looks extended from
its bounce a the $6.00 level it is even more so from its recent
lows under $.00 in early October.  The stock has been able to
pierce and maintain a position above its 200-dma and a move to
$10 is not out of the question.

---

Cirrus Logic - CRUS - close: $5.58 change: -0.27

WHAT TO WATCH: Investors have been ignoring most bad news out of
the chip sector and the stocks in the group have been on fire.
Shares of CRUS bounded strongly ahead on Wednesday and Thursday
with Thursday's session confirming a breakout over resistance at
$5.00 on very strong volume.  The ability to hold its gains on
Friday was very impressive and might spur new money into the
stock.  $5.00 should be new support now and a pull back to the
$5.00 level could be seen as a buying opportunity for the bulls.
We would target a move to the $7.50 area.


------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

GM - General Motors broke above short-term resistance on Thursday
after an unexpected decline in jobless claims lent a bullish
slant to automakers.  The fundamentals are still weak, but we
don't see any major resistance until the $40-$42 area.

PEP - PEP has been trading relatively weak compared to the
broader market.  It's somewhat of a slow mover, but if the 50-dma
gives way there isn't much support until $38.00.

INTL - This telecom stock formed a double-top near $29.00 and is
now in danger of falling below its 50-dma at $23.42.  A move
under this level might pave the way for a decline to the 200-dma
at $20.38.

NLS - Shares of NLS lost nearly 45% of their value on October
16th after the company said it expected "substantially slower
sales growth next year."  The stock is now beginning to fill in
the large gap.  Possible resistance lies at the early-October
lows near $17.50 and the 50-dma at $18.16.

LDG - Longs Drug stock has tanked to 52-week lows, despite
reporting improved earnings and strong same-store sales on
Wednesday.  Investors may have been upset with the company's
forward-looking guidance.  A violation of support at $20.00 could
send LDG towards $18.00.  Shares have fallen below bullish
support on the p-n-f chart.

SUNW - Sun Micro is still struggling to re-reach profitability
but that hasn't stopped the share price from almost doubling off
its lows near $2.50.  The $4.00 mark is current overhead
resistance.  A breakout could be a trigger to go long but another
entry point might be a dip to the $3.50-3.60 levels.  Aggressive
traders might target $4.50 or even $5.00 should the market rally
continue.

ASML - Similar to the CRUS write up above, shares of ASML have
moved strongly with the semiconductor group.  The stock has moved
above resistance at $10.00 and a pull back to the $10.00 to
$10.50 area could be seen as a potential entry point for the
bulls.  Our only suggestion would be to use a tight stop to limit
risk.  A move to $13.25 would be a short-term bullish target.

ARW - On the fringe of the chip industry, ARW has powered ahead
to close two days in a row above strong resistance at $15.00.  We
like the stock at current levels despite it huge move from the
October lows.  Aggressive traders could target a move to the next
resistance level between $18.00 and $18.25.

SYMC - Truly leading the software sector higher are shares of SYMC.
The stock plowed ahead to a new high both Thursday and Friday
before pulling back slightly heading into the weekend.
The stock looks very extended from its lows (pretty much
like everything else) but given the bullish tone of the
market a pull back to the $42 area could be an entry point
for new long positions.

BEAS - This is another strong software stock that has been making
new relative highs.  BEAS has broken back above its 200-dma as
well as closing strongly above resistance at the $10 level.  A
pull back to the $10 area looks like a decent opportunity for
bullish traders.  Our short-term target would be $12.50.

ADPT - Still struggling with resistance in the $7.10 to $7.25
area, shares of ADPT still look tempting for the bulls.
ADPT works with chips in the storage industry and it's
the recent negative earnings news from some high profile
companies in the electronic storage niche that could be
keeping ADPT from making bigger gains.  Should the stock
pull back, we would look for support and an entry point
at $6.50 while a move over $7.25 might be the breakout
momentum players need for a trigger.

SANM - This stock is in breakout mode.  Shares have made huge
gains from their lows near $1.50 in October to close at $4.03
this Friday.  Volume for Friday's 15.7% gain was an incredibly
strong 21.6 million shares for SANM.  This could spook shorts
into covering (which is a likely candidate for Friday's move as
well).  If it pulls back we would look for a bounce in the $3.50
to $3.75 area.  Our short-term bullish target would be $5.00.

================
Market Sentiment
================

Reading Between the Lines

by Steven Price

Not much happened you say?  I beg to differ.  After a week that
saw the broader markets take out significant resistance levels,
today's movement (or lack of it) was significant in and of
itself.  The Dow avoiding the bearish head and shoulders pattern,
by trading above 8800, took some serious buying. The fact that
today's 40-point pull back stopped at 8804 is not merely a
coincidence. It appears we have a new support level in the blue
chips.  Our next focus will be on the August high of 9077.

The August high was not a challenge for the Nasdaq Composite,
which had rallied 93 points in the previous two days.  Some pull
back could have been expected today after blasting through that
level of resistance, which had served as a ceiling on four
previous rally attempts.  But the bulls wouldn't allow that to
happen, and the COMP finished up slightly on the day.   One of
the big reasons there was no pull back, in spite of the fourth
straight monthly decline in the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio,
was news from Taiwan Semiconductor. The world's largest chip
foundry raised capacity utilization and shipment forecast, duo to
an upturn in demand for PCs and communications products.   An
increase in PC demand!  Had to repeat that sentence, since it was
the first time we've heard it in an awfully long time. Certainly
some of that demand is seasonal, due to the holiday season,
however, it is still significant.  The Semiconductor Sector Index
(SOX), which had posted a 70% gain from its low of 214 on October
9, looked as though it would pull back after its 53-point gain
from the last two days, following the book to bill number
Thursday evening. However, following the TSM news, the pullback
was a non-event, giving back only 2.66 on the day.

The Market Volatility Index (VIX) continues to sink, as the
market consolidates at successively higher levels.  After
venturing over 50 on October 10, it finished the day at 26.73,
giving up almost 50% from its highs.  The VIX can be used to
measure fear in the marketplace and right now it's showing a
great deal of complacency. It has dropped more than 10 points in
less than a week and a half.

One thing to be cautious of after this recent rally is the fact
that the bullish percentages are reaching levels that could
indicate a slowing of the rally, or a pullback.  The SPX bullish
percent is now at 64, right below its bearish resistance line at
66.   The last two rebounds fell short of that mark and a
breakthrough above it could be considered bullish.  However, when
combined with the bullish percent in the NDX, COMPX and Dow, red
flags are starting to pop up.  The NDX bullish percent has
reached 76, which is 6 points into overbought territory. The COMP
bullish percent is still down at 44, but only two boxes below its
bearish resistance line at 48 (bullish percent is measured in 2%
boxes). The Dow bullish percent broke through its bearish
resistance line down at 60, but has now entered overbought
territory, like the NDX, with a reading of 70.

After so much activity this week, we should see a severe drop off
in volume as we head into the holiday week.  Ahead of
Thanksgiving, many traders head home early, or go on vacation.
It is certainly a good sign that we got the breakout to the
upside this week, when the volume was still strong and traders
were getting their activity out of the way before the lull.

The one thing we need to be cautious of is the retail sales
environment.  As we get closer to the end of the month, year over
year sales comparisons will suffer from the fact that
Thanksgiving falls later and creates six fewer official shopping
days before Christmas.  The buying may simply shift to December
and that will probably be the spin most retailers put on
November's numbers.  However, most mall traffic is down for the
year and if it doesn't come back in December, then we may see
investors and analysts concerned about a lack of consumer
spending.  Consumer spending makes up 2/3 of GDP, so you can do
the math.

Right now the trend is up and should be played that way.
However, don't expect much guidance from this week's action (or
lack thereof).  As long as the Dow holds 8800 and the Nasdaq
remains above 1426, then we have indeed reached higher ground.
I'm certainly not ready to declare the bear market behind us, and
Dow 9077 will give us a better indication as to just where we
stand; so as we approach 9000, be cautious protect long positions
with a few extra puts.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8804

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8549
 50-dma: 8192
200-dma: 9205

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  930

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  903
 50-dma:  868
200-dma:  986

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1116

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1048
 50-dma:  945
200-dma: 1128

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  Last night's book-to-bill ratio
was the fourth straight monthly decline, and looked as though it
would weigh on the sector after a tremendous run up through the
August highs.  However, Taiwan Semiconductor came to the rescue
by raising guidance for fourth quarter capacity utilization and
shipments.  The company cited increased PC demand, and suddenly
the correction in the SOX was a mere 2.66.  The sector continues
to look bullish for the short term and the bullish vertical count
of 412 (which coincides with the 200-dma) is the next target to
the upside.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 362

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 321
 50-dma: 276
200-dma: 411


Market Volatility

The VIX has given up almost 50% of its value in the last 6 weeks,
and is now approaching 25 for the first time since June.  That
was prior to the July crash and the drop in premiums shows the
lack of fear currently in the market, with the Dow holding up
over 8800.  If we manage to break out above the August high in
the Dow of 9077, we could actually see the VIX back in the low
20s.  Some of today's VIX drop may be attributed to traders
avoiding premium buying before a holiday week, when many will be
on vacation.  Traders who are long options manage those positions
by trading stock against the position, which is harder to do when
they are not in the pits. However, if the market had broken down
below 8800, we likely would have seen an increase, rather than a
drop.



CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 26.73 -0.64
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 46.49 +1.79

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.70        555,217       390,571
Equity Only    0.60        425,700       256,483
OEX            0.97         13,984        13,504
QQQ            1.28         21,692        27,786


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          46      + 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    77      + 2     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   70      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       65      + 2     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       70      + 3     Bull Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Arms Index   0.94
10-Day Arms Index  1.00
21-Day Arms Index  1.12
55-Day Arms Index  1.19


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1460          1281
NASDAQ     1718          1463

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         37              26
NASDAQ       89              3739

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,979
NASDAQ   1,902


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/19/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added 9,000 long contracts, while adding only
3,700 shorts.  Small traders added 2,000 longs to their
positions, while adding 7,000 short contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/29/02      437,565   468,557   (30,992)   (3.4%)
11/05/02      438,546   472,384   (33,838)   (3.7%)
11/12/02      437,683   476,540   (38,857)   (4.3%)
11/19/02      446,668   480,270   (33,602)   (3.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/29/02      137,740    75,587    62,153     29.1%
11/05/02      138,604    76,032    65,572     30.5%
11/12/02      141,389    70,624    70,765     33.4%
11/19/02      143,070    77,332    65,738     29.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced both long and short positions by
approximately 3,000 contracts.  Small traders added
4,000 to the long side and 2,000 to the short side.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/29/02       47,837     55,261    (7,324) ( 7.1%)
11/05/02       49,128     56,121    (6,993) ( 6.6%)
11/12/02       45,647     55,892   (10,245) (10.1%)
11/19/02       42,074     52,302   (10,228) (10.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/29/02       10,584     9,419     1,165     5.8%
11/05/02       13,355    12,903       452     1.7%
11/12/02       12,698     8,801     3,897    18.1%
11/19/02       16,292    10,540     5,752    21.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added 1,000 contracts to both the long and
short side, while small traders reduced the long side
by 1,300 contracts and shorts by only 300.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/29/02       21,800    13,337    8,463      24.1%
11/05/02       22,533    15,687    6,846      17.9%
11/12/02       22,283    14,953    7,330      19.6%
11/19/02       23,535    15,741    7,794      19.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/29/02        5,602    11,090    (5,488)   (32.9%)
11/05/02        5,089     8,735    (3,646)   (26.4%)
11/12/02        5,736     8,513    (2,777)   (19.5%)
11/19/02        4,428     8,203    (3,775)   (29.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-22-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Closed Bullish Plays:  KRON

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  SPC

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     ALA
  Bullish Play Updates:  AHC, ICOS
  Bearish Play Updates:  CW, NTES


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Kronos Inc. - KRON - close: 43.51 change: -0.29 stop: 42.49

KRON paused today to consolidate some of its recent gains.
Although shares traded in a tight range for most of the session,
a pesky downward spike shortly after the opening bell stopped us
out of this play.  Our stop placement wasn't based on any
particular technicals; we simply wanted to protect a 4.8% gain.
Traders who used a more lenient stop can be encouraged that KRON
remained safely above Thursday's low for the entire session.  We
think shares are well-positioned to challenge the $45.00 area if
the broader tech sector heads higher next week.  With the NASDAQ
trading mostly flat today, the GSO.X wasn't able to power above
its 200-dma at 117.  But with MSFT trading strong, it may just be
a matter of time before the software index attacks new highs.
Mr. Softee actually looks like a pretty good long play...Check
out tonight's Watch List for more details!

Picked on November 20th at  $40.51
Results since picked:        +1.98
Earnings Date             10/29/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

St. Paul Co. - SPC - close: 36.56 change: +0.80 stop: 33.93

Directionless trading was the name of the game for the overall
equity market on Friday.  Institutional traders just didn't seem
to want to make any large bets ahead of a pre-holiday weekend.
With no major news to move the insurance group, the IUX.X
(insurance index) followed the Dow to a small loss.  Given the
lack of sector movement, it was nice to see SPC power ahead to a
2.2% gain.  Shares broke above Thursday's high and finished at a
new multi-month closing high.  This relative strength suggests
that SPC will soon be able to reach its 200-dma ($38.33).  We're
going to set an official profit-target slightly below that moving
average, at $38.24.  This would be an 8.9% gain from our entry
point.  Short-term traders looking to go long can watch for a
pullback to the $36.00 area.  Although our stop remains set at
$33.93, those with a more conservative risk management strategy
may want to use a stop slightly below $35.00.

Picked on November 18th at $35.11
Results since picked:       +1.45
Earnings Date            10/23/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Alcatel - ALA - close: 5.71 change: +0.29 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Alcatel designs, develops and builds innovative and competitive
communications networks, enabling carriers, service providers and
enterprises to deliver any type of content, such as voice, data
and multimedia, to any type of consumer, anywhere in the world.
Relying on its leading and comprehensive products and solutions
portfolio, stretching from end-to-end optical infrastructures,
fixed and mobile networks to broadband access, Alcatel's
customers can focus on optimizing their service offerings and
revenue streams. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
A scan of recent news releases for Alcatel doesn't give the bulls
a whole lot to cheer about.  This week started off with a
downgrade from Deutsche Securities, who issued a "sell" rating on
the company's stock.  Investors responded by taking ALA below the
$5.00 level. This was followed on Wednesday by a debt rating
reduction from Moody's.  One would expect that this double-whammy
would've sent the stock even lower.  But contrary to these
expectations, ALA has actually rallied sharply over the past
three days.  Lately Wall Street has done a fine job of ignoring
bad news...Especially in beaten-down sectors such as telecom.
The IXTCX combined telecom index has rallied roughly 50% off of
its October lows.  The index tacked on 1.5% and traded to a new
relative high on Friday, despite the general malaise that plagued
the rest of the market.  It looks like a test of the 200-dma at
$124.46 is just around the corner.  A breakout above this moving
average would clear the way for a rally to the next level of
historical resistance at 140.

There is also a good deal of upside potential for ALA if it can
break though its own overhead resistance at $6.00.  Should the
bulls conquer this level, we think shares could rally to the mid-
July high of $7.37.  The reversing daily stochastics (5,3,3) and
double-top point-and-figure buy signal suggest that ALA will be
able to continue its recent uptrend.  But by waiting to activate
this play until the stock trades above $6.05, we'll ensure that
the stock is trading at multi-month highs before entering our
hypothetical long position.  If the play is triggered our stop-
loss will be set at $5.47, one cent under today's low.  This is
also under the short-term trend of higher lows on the 60-minute
chart.  Our official profit-target for this play will be set at
$7.34.  We wouldn't rule out a rally to the 200-dma at $8.50, but
given our short-term timeframe we'll be more than happy with a
move to the July highs.  This play has been classified as "high-
risk/high-reward" because of ALA's recent volatility and
relatively low stock price.  Traders who are bullish on telecom
but are looking for something a little less aggressive might want
to check out the TTH Telecom HOLDRS, which are traded on the
AMEX.  TTH might be a good long play if it can break above its
200-dma.

Picked on November xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/30/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 55.85 change: +0.08 stop: 52.39

It was a common theme discussed by analysts throughout Friday's
session.  The markets have been up several weeks in a row and
many individual stocks and sectors were quickly approaching tough
overhead resistance levels.  As mentioned in Thursday's update,
the OIX.X oil index was one of them.  Unfortunately the index
fell sharply on Friday, failing at the 260 level and its 50-dma.
This was in contrast to yet another green day for the oil futures
as evidenced in the CL03F January contracts.  Another equity
adding more green to its week was AHC.  The stock managed an
eight-cent gain after falling sharply Friday morning in
association with the drop in the OIX oil index.  Shares of AHC
bounced strongly after the morning dip and the stock experienced
heavy volume on the rebound.  This is good news for bulls.  The
PremierInvestor team still suspects the best strategy for new
entries would be a dip similar to what the stock experienced this
morning.  The last two sessions have seen sellers use the 30-dma
for AHC as a place to dump stock but given AHC's strength it
could keep climbing.  Enter new positions carefully.

Picked on November 12th at $52.41
Results since picked:       +3.44
Earnings Date            10/24/02 (confirmed)




---

ICOS Corp. - ICOS - close: 30.66 change: +1.04 stop: 26.72

The race is on for ICOS.  After a small gap down Friday morning,
the stock powered ahead in a steep ascent to pierce the $30
resistance level and trade above this barrier for the rest of the
session.  Volume was growing at 1.7 million shares helping lend
some credence to the move.  This is even more impressive given
the stall seen in the BTK biotech index on Friday.  If the BTK
can break through its 200-dma and biotech giant Amgen can produce
its own breakout, then shorts may panic and ICOS could really
charge ahead.  The first likely resistance level for ICOS is the
$35 mark but true overhead price resistance will be $37, which is
where we're aiming to exit.  Shares are looking a little extended
but if bears panic and start to cover or the bulls produce a
stampede then there could be no stopping the move.  Entries at
current levels look acceptable but a dip would be the preferable
entry point.  Now that we are triggered at $30.06 our initial
stop loss at $26.72 is in play.  More conservative traders might
be able to get away with a tighter stop just under the $28 mark,
which is still 50 cents under the 200-dma.

Annotated chart for ICOS:



Picked on November 22nd at $30.06
Results since picked:       +0.61
Earnings Date            11/05/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Curtiss Wright - CW - close: 65.64 change: +0.26 stop: 67.82

No new developments for this play.  The DFX.X moved slightly
higher on Friday after failing to move above the 50-dma at
162.78.  CW also finished with a fractional gain after trading in
a narrow 75-cent range.  Shares traded an Inside Day and closed
above the 200-dma at $65.30.  Next week we'll be watching for CW
to break under this moving average and fall to a new short-term
low.  Traders looking to enter new short positions can continue
to watch for a move below $64.00.  The oscillators are not much
help at the moment because they're giving us conflicting signals.
However, bears can be pleased that CW has not been able to break
out of its recent downtrend.  Shortly before the market closed
today there were some reports that U.N. Secretary-General Kofi
Annan had issued optimistic comments regarding the weapons
inspection process in Iraq.  Additional cooperation by the Iraqi
government might serve to decrease Wall Street's expectations of
war.  This would probably have a negative impact on the defense
sector.

Picked on November 19th at $64.94
Results since picked:       -0.70
Earnings Date            10/29/02 (confirmed)




---

Netease.com - NTES - close: 8.05 change: +0.26 stop: 8.81

Trading NTES definitely isn't for the faint of heart.  One look
at a 5-minute chart of today's action is enough to bring back
memories of the era when wildly volatile Internet stocks such as
CMGI, AMZN, and YHOO made huge percentage moves on a daily basis.
NTES rallied sharply during the first half of the session and for
awhile it looked as though our short play might be closed for a
two-cent loss.  However, shares topped out six cents short of our
stop and quickly moved back under $8.60.  This level provided
resistance for the rest of the session.  Things really got
interesting during the final hour, when NTES was hammered for a
13% loss in just 20 minutes!  We were unable to find any news to
explain this sudden, high-volume decline.  Shares then bounced
back from the intraday low of $7.30 on even stronger volume.
When all was said and done the stock posted a 3.3% gain.  The
single-day volume of 1.5 million shares was easily the highest
reading since NTES began trading at the start of the year.  This
leads us to believe that the stock will see continued volatility
next week.  New short entries can be targeted on another rollover
from $8.60, but be prepared for more wild gyrations.  We're
keeping our stop-loss at $8.81, while our profit-target remains
at $6.32.

Picked on November 20th at $8.79
Results since picked:      +0.74
Earnings Date           11/05/02 (confirmed)







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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 11-22-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 24th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==========================================
Market Watch for the week of November 24th
==========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ITY    Imperial Tobacco Grp  Mon, Nov 25  Before the Bell     1.08
SMTC   Semtech               Mon, Nov 25  After the Bell      0.14
TECD   Tech Data Corporation Mon, Nov 25  -----N/A-----       0.57


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BMO    Bank Of Montreal      Tue, Nov 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
CMVT   Comverse Technology   Tue, Nov 26  After the Bell     -0.15
DG     Dollar General Corp.  Tue, Nov 26  After the Bell      0.18
EV     Eaton Vance Corp.     Tue, Nov 26  Before the Bell     0.38
HRB    H&R Block, Inc.       Tue, Nov 26  After the Bell     -0.05
MIK    Michaels Stores       Tue, Nov 26  After the Bell      0.40
NGG    National Grid Transco Tue, Nov 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
ULCM   Ulticom               Tue, Nov 26  After the Bell     -0.01
V      Vivendi Universal     Tue, Nov 26  -----N/A-----       0.33


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BCM    Canadian Impl Bnk Com Wed, Nov 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
DT     Deutsche Telekom      Wed, Nov 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
OTE    Hellenic Telecomm     Wed, Nov 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
HRL    Hormel Foods Corp     Wed, Nov 27  Before the Bell     0.49
TD     Toronto Dominion Bank Wed, Nov 27  Before the Bell      N/A


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

No major earnings


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

No major earnings


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

COO     Cooper Cos                2:1      Nov. 22nd   Nov. 25th
CHTT    Chattem Inc.              2:1      Nov. 29th   Dec.  2nd
BYFC    Broadway Financial        2:1      Nov. 30th   Dec.  2nd
GSOF    Group 1 Software          2:1      Dec.  2nd   Dec.  3rd
ACDO    Accredo Health            3:2      Dec.  2nd   Dec.  3rd
CLBK    Commercial Bank           5:4      Dec.  3rd   Dec.  4th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Thanksgiving week is traditionally a bullish time for the
stock market.  However, given that the Industrials have been up
this many weeks in a row it could prove tough to add one more week
to the rally.  Keep an eye on Wednesday as there are several economic
reports that could influence the market sentiment.

==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 11/25/02
----------------
Existing Home Sales (DM)Oct  Forecast:  5.35M  Previous:    5.40M


Tuesday, 11/26/02
-----------------
GDP-Prel. (BB)           Q3  Forecast:   3.2%  Previous:     3.1%
Chain Deflator-Prel.(BB) Q3  Forecast:   1.1%  Previous:     1.1%
Consumer Confidence(DM) Nov  Forecast:   83.0  Previous:     79.4
New Home Sales (DM)     Oct  Forecast:   980K  Previous:   1.021M


Wednesday, 11/27/02
-------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   11/23  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     376K
Personal Income (BB)    Oct  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:     0.4%
Personal Spending (BB)  Oct  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:    -0.4%
Mich Sentiment-Rev.(DM) Nov  Forecast:   85.0  Previous:     85.0
Durable Orders (DM)     Oct  Forecast:   3.0%  Previous:    -4.9%
Chicago PMI (DM)        Nov  Forecast:   47.5  Previous:     45.9
Help-Wanted Index (DM)  Oct  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:       43
Fed’s Beige Book (DM)


Thursday, 11/28/02
------------------
None


Friday, 11/29/02
----------------
None


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BA      Boeing Co                  34.00     +1.56
THQI    THQ Inc                    17.95     +0.70
SPW     SPX Corp                   46.58     +1.99
BFT     Bally Total Fitness         8.53     +0.85
ABS     Albertsons Inc             23.93     +0.68
NLS     Nautilus Group             15.60     +0.76
EDS     Electronic Data Sys.       16.70     +1.21
ABK     Ambac Financial            61.28     +1.78

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PLXS    Plexus Corp                13.91     +1.01
BLDP    Ballard Power              13.80     +1.62
POSS    Possis Medical             15.90     +1.02
ZRAN    Zoran Corp                 18.80     +1.26
TSG     Sabre Holdings             19.51     +1.87
AMKR    Amkor Technology            6.94     +1.12

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

GDT     Guidant Corp               32.00     +2.03
ROP     Roper Industries           41.59     +1.70
GRTS    Gart Sports                25.25     +1.96
FOSL    Fossil Inc                 21.12     +1.96
TOO     Too Inc                    27.65     +2.30

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PPG     PPG Industries             46.79     -1.23
INTL    Inter-Tel Inc              23.63     -1.02
SYK     Stryker Corp               64.58     -2.35
BTY     British Telecom            33.47     -1.28

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change
STLY    Stanley Furniture          25.08     -0.47
ALD     Allied Capital Corp        21.41     -0.09




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