PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-02-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Not Quite There Watch List: ADBE, AMZN, BUD, CCU, OMC, and more... Play of the Day: A Weak Start To the Week ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** 12-02-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 8862.57 - 33.52 9043.37 8787.15 1668 mln 751/2400 NASDAQ 1484.78 + 6.00 1521.44 1474.59 1341 mln 954/2348 S&P 100 477.19 - 1.66 487.94 473.31 totals 1705/4748 S&P 500 934.53 - 1.78 954.28 927.72 RUS 2000 408.54 + 2.18 413.64 406.01 DJ TRANS 2381.43 + 20.81 2408.22 2361.35 VIX 30.05 - 1.03 31.64 29.97 VIXN 50.16 + 0.68 51.85 48.85 Put/Call Ratio 0.68 ****************************************************************** =========== Market Wrap =========== Not Quite There by Steven Price Have we finally run out of gas? It is starting to feel that way, as we are approaching significant levels in all major indices. That's not to say we won't travel further into the green, but we may need to re-fill the tank in order to do so. As we get to major resistance levels, not only has a whole bunch of cash been shifted from other assets into stocks, but shorts start to smell blood in the water, and begin picking tops. After a 1700 point gain in the Dow, we got a snapshot of how we'd react to the August high when we got there, with a blow-off top this morning. The Dow traded within 34 points of the August rally top at 9077, before pulling back hard; following manufacturing data that was released mid-morning. After topping at 9043.37, the blue chips pulled all the way back and re-tested support at 8800. The approach to the August high provided a low/risk high reward short play that could be closed if that August high was broken. And boy did the shorts play. Following last week's surprisingly strong Chicago PMI number, which indicated a shift from contraction to expansion, analysts were expecting The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report to also show an increase. After two straight months under a reading of 50, which indicates manufacturing contraction, the number was expected to come in as 50.8. The monthly diffusion index increased, but only to 49.2, indicating the manufacturing sector is still in contraction mode. This was a big disappointment after most of last week's economic numbers were positive. While it led to a sell-off intraday, we still saw a higher low on the pullback, with buyers coming back at 8800, driving the average back up to a close of 8862.57, down only 33 points on the day. It makes sense that we would see some consolidation as we test that August high, with the 200-dma of 9177 also just above. We haven't seen the Dow above the 200-dma since the end of May, and it will take some real buying to get us over this next hump. If we do, we could see blue skies above for a while, however, we need to crack that level first. One more bullish sign we are seeing is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Daily Chart of the Dow There are a number of other factors that could also weigh into a pullback, before we get that run. First, the bullish percentages are all much extended from the recent rally. The bullish percent measures the percentage of stocks in a given index that are giving point and figure buy signals. The Dow and NDX are in overbought territory at 72% and 80% respectively (70% is overbought), while the Nasdaq Composite is sitting on its bearish resistance line at 48% and the S&P 500 is sitting on its bearish resistance line at 66%. We are also seeing the Dow run out of steam at the 38.2% retracement level from the all-time high, to July's recent low, for the second time at the same level. This would represent a more macro view of the action, and coincides with the other factors measured above. Traders need to be aware of all of these barriers currently facing us at the end of a long rally. As we head deeper into the holiday season, we will see less and less trading activity, virtually coming to a halt between Christmas and New Year's Eve. Therefore, we will require more than just aimless drifting to get over these levels. Weekly Chart of the Dow The morning started out positive following good news from United Airlines, which submitted another tentative deal for a vote from its mechanics and Wal-Mart (WMT), which said it had experienced record one-day sales on November 29, the day after Thanksgiving. The retail behemoth registered domestic sales o $1.43 billion, compared to last year's day after Thanksgiving total of $1.25 billion. WMT cited more customers and higher average ticket price. The Wall Street Journal said retail sales were better than expected, with a 12.3% increase on Friday and 9% on Saturday. There has been quite a bit of concern over whether the gains following recent positive news about unemployment and personal spending would be derailed with a slow holiday shopping season. Any broad based economic recovery will be highly dependent on consumer spending, which makes up 2/3 of GDP. So far, the pre-holiday shopping season had been disappointing, with several retailers, Wal-Mart included, saying November sales had come in below expectations. This morning's retail data was certainly a bullish sign, but we have to remember that comparing this year's sales to last is not an exact measure. With a late Thanksgiving, and six fewer official shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the shift in sales from November to December is a reasonable expectation. This weekend's big number was also somewhat expected, as shoppers who may have put off shopping to avoid the crowds, having one extra week last year, had a shorter time frame this year, with one less weekend. One note, however, is that the discounters saw much of the gain from last year, indicating shoppers shifting their budgets to the less expensive side this year. That was apparent this weekend, as I traveled back to Chicago. I stayed near my old condo just off Michigan Avenue, and this weekend's crowds were nothing like those of past years. In fact, there were NO LINES at Crate and Barrel on Sunday afternoon. In the past I can remember standing in line for 20 minutes just to get up to the register. This year I simply walked up and was helped immediately. The Retail Index (RLX.X) finished up mildly, after an initial surge in the morning. There have been some cautious comments from retail groups, warning us not to get too excited just yet. The Association of Shopping Centers warned that this weekend represented only 10% of total holiday sales and there was a long road before declaring the season a success. The Bank of Tokyo, which puts out chain store sales numbers, made similar statements. Certainly things could be worse, and this morning's data is a positive, but I'm not jumping on the retail bandwagon just yet. We got some additional good news for the techs, after Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were upgraded by Lehman Brother's Dan Niles. He cited the 180 million PCs that are now over four years old, which will most likely need replacing, as well as improving corporate profits that could drive business investment. He also mentioned the fact that Windows 95 will enter the non-support phase for Microsoft at the end of the year and Windows 98 and NT will enter the non-support phase in June of next year. Those upgrades helped lift the Semiconductor Index to a morning high of 393.80, which was an 84% gain since the middle of October. It also tested resistance at 400 from June and July, as well as the 200-dma at 407 and the PnF bullish vertical count of 412. The group fell back to a close of 375 by the end of the day, but still showed a slight gain. This group helped the Nasdaq Composite break its 200-dma intraday once again, and post a small gain, which it held onto at the close. The Nasdaq 100 closed just above its 200-dma for the 3rd time in the last 5 days, and these indices have been creeping and crawling around those 200-dmas for the last week now. Those gains could be extended after software maker Citrix Systems guided higher after the bell. It cited uncertainty in IT spending, which is a mantra we are hearing from virtually every tech, but nevertheless raised its earnings and revenue guidance, sending the stock up $1.43 (11.5%) after hours. With the Dow testing its own this morning, look for a crossover and hold by all three before breathing a sigh of relief to the long side. While either the techs or the Dow cracking those averages looks bullish, one is bound to be an anchor for the others if they can't all accomplish the task. Chart of the Nasdaq Composite Now that we are bumping our heads against that 200-dma in all three averages, traders can look for a decisive move above those levels as a signal to sharpen the horns. However, the most prudent action would be to buy a pullback to support at those levels. If we fail to hold the 200-dmas and head lower, then we don't want to get caught in a bull trap. The trick then will be to find a higher low on the pullback. If we get a lower low, trading down to Dow 8600 or Nasdaq 1350, then we will have broken the rising trend, and we can reassess overall market direction. It is rare that so many significant levels converge, so let's pay close attention and take advantage of the signals. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 28.71 change: -0.81 WHAT TO WATCH: This morning's gap higher on the NASDAQ helped the GSO.X software index launch from its 200-dma at 116. However, the rally above 120 was short-lived. The index pulled back with the market and finished with a small loss. A breakdown below the 200-dma tomorrow might portend a larger pullback to the 100-110 area. Should the sector head lower, ADBE looks like a good short candidate. Today's intraday reversal and subsequent close under the 200-dma ($29.36) aren't positive signs for shareholders. The bearish engulfing candlestick and rolling oscillators suggest that ADBE could pull back to the November lows near $25.00, although it wouldn't be surprising to see the stock find some buyers near $27.00. Bearish traders will probably want to wait for shares to fall below short-term support at $28.50 before opening any short positions. It also wouldn't hurt to wait for the GSO.X to fall under its 200-dma. --- Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 24.11 change: +0.76 WHAT TO WATCH: Amazon broke to new 52-week highs on Monday after a report showed that online shopping had risen sharply in early- November - a 20% increase over last year's levels. EBAY and YHOO are also trading strong, but AMZN looks like the best long play within the sector because it has no immediate levels of overhead resistance. Aggressive traders could think about going long on a move above $25.00, with an initial profit-target near $30.00. The more prudent entry strategy would entail waiting for a pullback to short-term support at $23.50. The falling daily stochastics (5,3,3) are an indication that AMZN may be due for some additional consolidation before it attacks new highs. --- Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 48.29 change: -0.83 WHAT TO WATCH: BUD is teetering precariously above support at $48.00. Shares managed a bounce from this level on Monday, but not before violating the bullish support trend on the p-n-f chart. A breakdown below the relative low of $47.95 would open the door for a retest of the July lows near $44.00. Bears looking for a p-n-f sell signal will have to wait for the stock to reach $47.00. On a related note, shares of competitor RKY are looking weak after closing under the 50-dma. But unlike BUD, Coors still has support at its 200-dma. --- Borg Warner - BWA - close: 52.69 change: +1.17 WHAT TO WATCH: Resistance is futile! This automotive stock has recently kicked into high gear, first plowing through the 50-dma and then breaking above $50.00 last Wednesday. Shares look a little extended on a short-term basis, so we'd be watching for a pullback to $50.00 to offer a bullish entry point. The next hurdles for BWA will be bearish p-n-f resistance at $55.00 and the 200-dma at $56.60. --- Clear Channel - CCU - close: 43.48 change: +0.02 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of CCU are threatening to crack resistance at $45.00. The stock is also sitting on its ascending trend of higher highs. A breakout above this trend might lead to a continuation of the recent rally, which has seen CCU gain more than 20% in roughly 2 weeks. Long entries can be considered on a rebound from the $43.00 area or a move above $45.00. The p-n-f chart is currently showing a double-top buy signal, with a bullish vertical count of $64. The next level of psychological resistance at $50.00 would be a more reasonable profit target for short-term traders. --- Marsh Mclennan - MMC - close: 48.04 change: +0.84 WHAT TO WATCH: At first glance MMC looks like a possible bullish trade. Shares showed good relative strength today after bouncing from the 50-dma last week. The rising oscillators are hinting at a breakout above the 200-dma at $48.57. But the technical picture won't look as strong if shares begin to roll over from that moving average. A pullback from current levels would form a textbook head-and-shoulders formation on the daily chart. It's a little early to be entering any short positions, but we'll be keeping an eye on MMC for a breakdown below the 50-dma at $45.28. --- Microsemi Corp - MSCC - close: 7.45 change: +1.10 WHAT TO WATCH: MSCC exploded for a 17% gain on Monday. We scoured the news sites for something to explain the high-volume rally, but came up empty-handed. Whatever the reason for the move higher, it looks like the stock could soon break above resistance at $8.00. A trade at this level would create a double-top buy signal on the point-and-figure chart. Turning our attention to the daily chart, we don't see any significant levels of resistance until $9.65. This is the bottom of the large June 24th gap. More formidable resistance lies at the $10.00 level, slightly below the 200-dma. --- Navistar - NAV - close: 29.55 change: -1.31 WHAT TO WATCH: We profiled NAV as a possible short play on Friday's Watchlist. The stock had seen some strong gains in recent weeks (more than doubling from the October lows) but looked like it would face some strong resistance at the 200-dma ($31.22). The rollover commenced on Monday, when NAV popped its head above the moving average and promptly sold off. Shares underperformed the market with a 4.2% loss and formed a bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. Factor in the overbought oscillators, and the odds of a continued pullback look pretty good. We'd be watching for entries on a move below $29.00 or a failed rally near $30.00. --- Omnicom Corp - OMC - close: 69.16 change: +1.11 WHAT TO WATCH: Nice breakout for shares of this advertising company. OMC has been trending higher for several months and Monday's session saw the bulls successfully dispatch short-term resistance at $68.00. The stock also sliced through its 200-dma ($79.09) before being dragged down by the broader market. A breakout above this moving average could send OMC towards the $75.00 level. The daily chart doesn't show any substantial resistance until $84-$85. The rising daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicate that the current uptrend will continue. Bullish positions can be targeted on a pullback to $68.00 or on a move above $70.50. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH Active Trader/non-tech play) ========================= Procter & Gamble - PG - close: 82.80 change: -1.73 stop: 86.06 Company Description: P&G markets nearly 300 brands - including Pampers, Tide, Ariel, Always, Whisper, Pantene, Bounty, Pringles, Folgers, Charmin, Downy, Lenor, Iams, Crest, Actonel, Olay and Clairol Nice 'n Easy -- in more than 160 countries around the world. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: November 26th, 2002 - Why We Like It: We've had our eye on PG for several weeks. This Dow component consistently showed up as a bearish candidate while the major market indices launched off of their multi-year lows. The stock always seemed to be on the verge of a breakdown and traded with little regard to the overall market uptrend. Perhaps a simple comparison of recent performance between PG and the Dow Jones best illustrates this relative weakness: The Industrials bottomed out on October 10th and have since gained 20.5%. Meanwhile, PG has actually lost 5.1% over the same time period! Examining the nature of the October/November broader market rally helps to explain why shares are underperforming. The largest gains have been concentrated in beaten-down tech and telecom stocks, as well as the beleaguered financial sector. PG, however, was actually trading within 5-6 dollars of 52-week highs when the market bottomed out. That's why the stock didn't see the same sort of steep short-covering rebound that buoyed so many other stocks. But shares have been drifting lower ever since the 200-dma was violated in late-October, and now the downtrend is beginning to accelerate. Today's 1.4% decline did a lot of technical damage. Not only did PG close under short-term support at $85.00, but shares also fell below bullish support on the p-n-f chart. A trade at $84.00 will create a double-bottom sell signal. The MACD and daily stochastic oscillators are both trending lower, suggesting that today's breakdown could be the beginning of a steeper decline. Turning our attention to the daily chart, we see no clear levels of support until the July lows near $74.00. Our expectation is that PG will begin to retrace the late-July rebound and make its way towards the $80.00 level. If we get some cooperation from the Dow (which is struggling with resistance at 8875), a decline to the $77-$78 area would not be out of the question. We're starting this play with an entry trigger at $84.24. Our stop (if the play is activated) will be set at $86.06, just above resistance on the 15-minute chart. PG has had trouble with whole-number levels over the past week, and that was the case again today when shares rolled over from the $85.00 level. Traders who are willing to take a little more heat could use a stop just above $87.00. - Most recent update: November 29th, 2002 - This short play was triggered on Wednesday morning when PG gapped below our entry trigger. Shares set a relative low of $83.60 and looked vulnerable to more selling pressure. But as could be expected, no large sell-offs materialized during today's shortened session. PG traded an Inside Day and drifted slightly lower with the Dow on the lightest volume of the year. Things should begin to pick up again on Monday and with earnings warning season beginning next week, any high-profile downward guidance announcements could help to send the major indices lower. The Dow faces overhead resistance at 9000 and the 200-dma at 9183. Factor in the lack of a follow-through rally today, and we think the Dow could retrace a large chunk of Wednesday's gains and move towards 8800. We'd expect PG to lead the index lower if this turns out to be the case. New entries can be targeted on a move under Wednesday's low of $83.60. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: December 2nd, 2002 - The first signs of trouble for PG appeared this morning when the stock immediately began to fall, seemingly oblivious of the early gains in the Dow Jones. Shares dropped to a multi-month low of $82.25 before trading in a narrow range between $82.50 and $83.00. PG was the fourth-worst performing Dow component today, with a 2.0% loss. We'd expect these loses to mount if the Industrials continue to retrace Wednesday's large gains. What really gets our bearish juices flowing is the fact that PG doesn't have any clear levels of support until the July lows near $74.00. The bulls might put up a fight at $80.00, but the recent move below bullish p-n-f support and strong volume behind today's breakdown are hinting at a more painful decline. New short positions can be targeted on a rollover from $84.00 or a move under today's low. Picked on November 27th at $84.00 Results since picked: +1.20 Earnings Date 10/29/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-02-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: High Risk/Reward Triggered Plays: GLW (bullish) Closed Bearish Plays: CW Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== Triggered Plays --------------- Corning Inc - GLW - close: 4.99 change: +0.56 stop: 3.94 GLW gapped above our entry trigger this morning after Morgan Stanley upgraded the entire wireless telecom sector. This bullish play was activated at the opening trade of $4.72. Shares finished strong and closed just under psychological resistance at $5.00. A move above this level would provide an opportunity to open new long positions. Another pullback to the $4.60 area would also yield a possible entry point. Now that we're triggered our stop is set at $3.94. Those who are looking for a little less downside risk could use a stop just under Friday's low of $4.15. =============== HR Closed Plays =============== Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Curtiss Wright - CW - cls: 63.50 chg: +2.00 stop: 64.01 The bears seemed to be in control on Friday when CW plummeted to new relative lows. Unfortunately there was no follow-though during today's session. With shares approaching our profit- target slightly above $60.00, we also inched our stop-loss down to $64.01. This level was violated on Monday afternoon as shares traded higher despite the weakening broader market. Our short play was closed for a gain of 93 cents. This rebound is promising for shareholders, especially in light of the reversing daily stochastics (5,3,3). Of course, it's worth noting that a similar reversal from oversold levels in late-November didn't amount to much of a rally. The stock faces overhead resistance at the rising 200-dma ($65.56) and hasn't yet broken out of its multi-week downtrend. CW might very well resume its downward journey (especially if the overall market begins to sell off), but it'll take a strong effort by the bears to push the stock below the converging 50-day and 100-day moving averages near $60.75. Picked on November 19th at $64.94 Results since picked: +0.93 Earnings Date 10/29/02 (confirmed) ================= Trading Ideas ================= This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CHIC Charlotte Russe Hldg. 14.48 +1.20 PP Prentiss Properties 28.07 +0.58 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ISIL Intersil Holding Corp 19.25 +1.97 MSCC Microsemi Corp 7.45 +1.10 UCO Universal Compression 19.02 +1.02 ANDW Andrew Corp 12.45 +1.20 RRGB Red Robin 14.10 +1.08 NXTP Nextel Partners 8.05 +1.45 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change GENZ Genzyme Corp 35.24 +2.44 MGAM Multimedia Games 27.17 +2.09 BWA Borg Warner 52.69 +1.17 KSWS K-Swiss Inc 26.49 +1.23 MHK Mohawk Industries 62.83 +1.22 SGY Stone Energy 31.35 +1.20 CPO Corn Products Intl 30.70 +1.03 MWRK Mothers Work 40.26 +1.76 WEBX Webex Communications 20.68 +1.22 LF Leapfrog Enterprises 34.46 +1.36 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change JNJ Johnson & Johnson 55.70 -1.32 FLA FL East Coast Ind. 21.89 -1.26 PECS PEC Solutions 33.35 -3.74 INVN Invision Technologies 26.30 -2.63 PFGC Performance Food Group 33.67 -1.53 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CSC Computer Sciences Corp 33.66 -1.23 SOTR Southtrust Corp 25.78 -0.36 RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises 21.38 -0.30 NCR NCR Corp 26.97 -0.63 CIN Cinergy Corp 31.80 -0.60 AXP American Express 38.62 -0.31 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2002 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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