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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 12/05/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 12-05-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Dow Streak In Danger
Play-of-the-Day:  Insurance Weakness
Market Sentiment: Sell the Good News


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      12-05-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8623.28 -114.60  8769.05  8608.75 1.52 bln   1280/1907
NASDAQ   1410.71 - 19.60  1445.95  1410.58 1.43 bln   1307/2031
S&P 100   461.67 -  6.36   470.11   461.26   Totals   2587/3938
S&P 500   906.55 - 11.03   921.49   905.90
RUS 2000  394.45 -  3.08   399.20   394.03
DJ TRANS 2344.36 -  3.08  2363.82  2342.76
VIX        34.28 +  2.14    34.70    32.84
VXN        54.16 +  0.61    56.33    53.66
Total Vol   3,139M
Total UpVol   842M
Total DnVol 2,237M
52wk Highs   121
52wk Lows     87
TRIN        1.56
PUT/CALL    0.84
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Dow Streak In Danger

The Dow's eight-week winning streak is in danger of coming to
an end with the -273 point drop for the week as of today's close.
Nobody should be surprised because streaks never last forever.
The key point to remember was the cycle prior to this winning
streak. The Dow was alternating 4-5 week streaks of gains and
losses and the fear is not that the Dow took a week off but
worries over that five weeks of alternating down trend returning.

Dow Chart - Daily

Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Stocks started off the morning with news of a 50-point rate cut
by the ECB but the excitement lasted all of 10 min before the
sell off began. A leading reason for the drop was the November
Chain Store sales which came in at -0.1%. Not a rousing start
for the holiday season! The strong sales for the two days after
the Thanksgiving holiday were simply not enough to compensate
for shrinking numbers earlier in the month. This was the lowest
retail sales number in the last seven months and was a marked
contrast to the +3.2% gains in October. The November numbers
were hurt by the calendar with only two shopping days after
Thanksgiving compared to an average of four days. Department
stores dropped -6.7%, footwear -3.0%, furniture -0.5%. The
biggest gain was in drug stores at +8.0%. Stocking up on
aspirin and Alka Seltzer for the holidays? Analysts pointed
to unemployment and high consumer debt levels as the drag on
sales.

The October gains were enough to power Best Buy and Circuit
City to claim better than expected results for their last
quarter. They will announce actual earnings on Dec-17th and
their guidance will be critical. This will be three weeks into
the December holiday sales and it will be a real look inside
the holiday economy.

Jobless Claims fell much more than expected to only 355,000
and about 20,000 below consensus. This was a 21 month low but
was likely impacted by the short holiday week. There is no
real evidence of any change in hiring on the national level.
However, as I have noted in the Market Monitor, several readers
have emailed me about the pickup in head hunter activity lately.
Many highly qualified job hunters have been seeing a vast
increase in the number of calls and interviews over the last
2-3 weeks. There has not been any new hiring trend developing
from this activity and many feel that companies are just lining
up prospects for an early January surge. No reason to bring them
on before the holidays and incur that extra expense when little
work gets done between now and January.

A bigger drag on the markets continued to be UAL and the
impending bankruptcy. The government refused to give UAL the
loan guarantee it needed saying the airline's plan was doomed
to failure and presented too much risk for taxpayers. The
stock was halted from trading until late in the afternoon
when it lost two thirds of its value. Reporters claim that
JPM, ONE, C and GE Capital are putting together a $1.5 billion
debtor in possession loan. Once this loan is arranged the
company is expected to make the filing. This prompted UAL
to be dropped from the Dow Transportation index and they
will be replaced by UPS. Nobody really expects UAL to quit
flying but the number of flights and planes could drop
significantly. This impacted all the feeder groups like
Boeing, even after BA said it would not impact them, and
travel groups like hotels and car rentals. If UAL suddenly
flew 25% fewer flights the industry would pick up the slack
but the uncertainty is the real problem.

The tech sector failed to hold to positive territory even after
AMD raised its guidance for the fourth quarter. AMD said sales
of microchips used in computers and flash memory products were
better than expected. The company raised its sales estimates
to $700 million and well above the $599 million consensus.
You would have expected this news to rally the tech sector
but there was considerable worry that Intel would spoil the
party. This was another case of the bar for AMD being lowered
too far and even a badly battered AMD was able to trip over it.

Helping to offset the AMD news was a warning from GTW that sales
would fall short of expectations. The GTW CEO said last weekend's
sales of computers were disappointing. He said the PC does not
appear to be a holiday item this year. He did say they were
selling more flat screen televisions than expected. He described
the PC pricing environment as "brutal" and claimed entry level
PC prices were now well below $399. He said they would need
several weeks of "good" sales to even meet the bottom of their
previous outlook. He said the "low end of the prior range was
probably only a best case scenario". Thank you Ted for the
encouraging words.

After the close Intel said slightly stronger sales in Asia,
not the U.S., would push it to just slightly above its previous
revenue guidance. INTC said it was raising guidance to $6.8-$7.0
billion from $6.5-$6.9 billion. They also said the gross margins
had firmed to around 49% plus or minus a couple of points. They
did say they would lose about twice as much as expected from
investments but at -$90 million it is not relative to the
bottom line. Most analysts feel this minor revenue improvement
was already priced into the stock which rallied from $13 to $22
since the October lows. Several high profile analysts had
recommended a sell on INTC at the +$20 level. INTC only rose
+.50 cents in after hours.

In an unexpected turn of events a Federal judge said that
Microsoft's behavior toward SUNW was like the 1994 knee-clubbing
of Olympic skater Nancy Kerrigan. He went on to say that MSFT
had stolen the game signals from the other team and was attempting
to un-engineer that market. Just when MSFT thought the court
problems were dwindling the judge appears to have taken up the
fight for SUNW in the current Java trial in progress. In the
last four days MSFT has been clubbed by the judge for a -$4
loss. Count on MSFT detractors to jump on these comments and
attempt to get more sanctions against the giant.

The bottom line for Thursday's trading was concern over Intel,
Iraq and Venezuela. The IRAQ deadline of Dec-8th is rapidly
approaching and it is almost a sure thing that the U.S. will
find something to fight about. Reports today indicated that
up to 200,000 troops could be called up to fight the war.
Oil shipments stopped in Venezuela amid strikes and violence
and oil prices rose again on the open market. New terrorist
attacks and fears of attacks made news and a fierce ice storm
on the east coast knocked out power to as many as two million
customers. All these factors kept traders on the sidelines
and volume on both major exchanges was very low. The Nasdaq
only traded 1.3 billion shares.

Friday's economic reports include the Jobs Report, Consumer
Credit and Leading Indicators. The Jobs Report is the key
and any positive numbers should bring life back into the
market. A negative number could be shaken off as already
priced in with traders focusing on AMD/INTC instead. Support
on the major indexes is just below our closing numbers at
Dow 8600, Nasdaq 1400, SPX 905, OEX 460. The path of least
resistance has changed tonight from down to up. After five
days of selling the markets are due for a bounce. Exactly
where and when that bounce will occur is unknown. We are
entering a level of heavy congestion but that does not
guarantee an instant, strong or lasting response. It just
means the odds of a continued drop on Friday have decreased.
Shorts are likely to take some chips off the table and wait
for a new entry point.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


===============
Play-of-the-Day   (New BEARISH non-tech play)
===============

American Intl. Group - AIG - cls: 61.15 chg: -1.46 stop: *text*

Company Description:
AIG is the world's leading U.S.-based international insurance and
financial services organization, the largest underwriter of
commercial and industrial insurance in the United States, and
among the top-ranked U.S. life insurers. Its member companies
write a wide range of general insurance and life insurance
products for commercial, institutional and individual customers
through a variety of distribution channels in approximately 130
countries and jurisdictions throughout the world. AIG's global
businesses also include financial services, retirement savings
and asset management. AIG's financial services businesses include
aircraft leasing, financial products, trading and market making,
and consumer finance. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
"Sell the news" has been the mantra for insurance investors
following President Bush's signing of the Terrorism Insurance
bill.  The legislation was largely seen as a boon for providers
of property and casualty policies - so much so that some pundits
criticized it as a handout to the large insurance companies.  But
while stocks within the sector moved higher ahead of the bill's
passage, investors have had a distinct sell-side bias ever since.
The IUX.X insurance index has dropped to the lower end of its
multi-week trading range and is now threatening to fall below the
50-dma at 259.  On a similar note, AIG is in danger of breaking
to relative lows.  The technical picture worsened considerably
today after shares fell below the 50-dma ($62.10) and triggered a
triple-bottom sell signal on the point-and-figure chart.  With a
loss of 2.3%, shares showed relative weakness versus both the Dow
Jones and IUX.X.  The descending oscillators don't lend much
credence to the idea that AIG will rebound anytime soon.  Bears,
however, will point out that the stock is resting just above
bullish p-n-f support at $61.00, which also provided support
during a pullback on November 1st.  That's why we won't enter
this play until shares trade at or below $60.94.  Additional
support lurks at $60.00, but we won't expect the bulls to put up
much of a fight at this level if the IUX is breaking to new lows.
In terms of downside potential, AIG has a large "fast-move"
region below $60.00.  We'll be looking for shares to retrace the
rapid gains from early-October and retest the $52.00 level.
Shorter-term traders could target a move to $55.  If the play is
activated our stop will be located at $65.51, slightly above the
200-dma.  Those who aren't willing to harbor as much risk could
use a stop just above Tuesday's high of $63.71.

Picked on December xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date:          10/24/02 (confirmed)





================
Market Sentiment
================

Sell the Good News
by Steven Price

The broader markets looked set for a nice upside bounce this
morning, following the European Central Bank's decision to lower
rates by 50 basis points.   After yesterday's big bounce
following the morning sell-off, we were looking at the failure
point of that bounce, which was Dow 8800, to determine whether we
had simply seen a pullback, before another run at the August high
of 9077.   One of the bearish clues we got was the Dow, OEX, SPX
and COMP all breaking the trend of higher lows intraday, before
the rally.  Today saw a continuation of the lower lows trend,
with all four finishing below yesterday's morning levels.

The news that United Airlines was turned down for the $1.8
billion loan guarantee, virtually assuring the airline of
bankruptcy, certainly weighed on the market, but was not a big
surprise.  Nevertheless, the stock lost more than 60% of its
value, finishing the day $1.23.

There was good news from the chip sector, as number two chip
maker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) raised its fourth quarter
sales forecast by 15%.  That would translate to an increase of
35% over the third quarter and supports similar statements from
other manufacturers that PC demand may be seeing a turnaround.
The news was not enough to save the Nasdaq from 19.64 point drop,
but nonetheless looks bullish for the longer term - at least
compared to what we've seen the last two years.

While we can certainly expect some intermediate rebounds,
following a "ball bouncing down the stairs" scenario, it appears
that we have now seen the development of a new bearish trend.
After trading as high as 9043 on Monday, we have seen intraday
resistance at 8800 on Tuesday and Wednesday and at 8700 today, as
well.  If that top of 8700 holds, then we can conclude that we
have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.  Now I don't want
to get ahead of myself with the suggestion of another possible
head and shoulders formation, after the possibility of that
formation with a head at 8800 failed.  However, I am looking at
the possibility that we saw a left shoulder at 8800 and a head at
9043, which would be similar to the levels at which that
formation took place between July and September.  If that is the
case, then there should be another bounce from the 8350-8500
range, which would lead to a right shoulder formation somewhere
beneath 9000.   Once again, it may be too early to make this
assumption, but it is something to watch out for.

One piece of data that hasn't gotten much press is the fact that
mortgage rates have now risen for the third straight week.  Alan
Greenspan said recently that about half of every dollar of equity
extraction is spent on home improvements or disposable income.
As the savings from a refi are getting smaller, we'll be seeing
fewer equity extractions, which could lead directly to less
consumer spending. While it may not be the reason we are seeing
disappointing retail data for November, since it will lag until
the time the next lower mortgage payment would have been made, it
may affect sales in coming months.

After the bell, Intel raised its 4th quarter revenue guidance to
$6.8-$7.0 billion from the previous range of $6.5-$6.9 billion
and said gross margin would be at the high end of the previous
range of 49%, plus or minus a couple of points.  The company also
said its equity investment loss would be $90 million, versus
previous expectations of $50 million. The stock traded as high as
$19.53 after the bell, before falling back to $19.13.  It closed
the day at $18.96.    It will be interesting to see its effect on
the Semiconductor Index (SOX), which fell a few points, but held
above support at 330 by the close.

Tomorrow's action will mostly depend on the reaction to Intel's
guidance.  So far the reaction has been positive, but not
excessively so. In the past couple of months, the initial
reaction has not always mirrored what we see in the morning, so
watch for a break below Dow 8600 and Nasdaq Composite 1400 to
signal a new round of selling.  If we get a boost from the news,
then we'll keep our eye on resistance in both averages to see if
the trend of lower highs continues. If it does, we may be getting
a shorting opportunity. If not, and we continue through Dow 8800,
then we'll wait for a new support level before going long the
broader markets.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8623

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8797
 50-dma: 8317
200-dma: 9160

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  906

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  926
 50-dma:  880
200-dma:  979

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1053

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1102
 50-dma:  981
200-dma: 1115

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X): The SOX pulled back today, in
spite of the news from AMD that it raised revenue guidance for
the fourth quarter, citing stronger than expected PC processor
demand and continuing strength in flash memory.  After
yesterday's sell-off bounced just above previous resistance at
329, today's pullback found support around the same level,
finishing the day at 331.  That appears to be the key level
before retesting 310.  Intel also guided higher after the bell,
saying revenue would come in at $6.8-$7.0 billion, versus
previous expectations of  $6.5-$6.9 billion.  As the SOX has been
leading the rest of the market around recently, the markets
reaction to the Intel news could define the next trend.  If we
see a continued sell-off, in spite of the raised guidance, then
the bears may come out in full force.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 331

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 361
 50-dma: 293
200-dma: 404

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Now that we've had five straight down days in the broader
indices, the VIX is once again pushing the 35 area.  While some
traders use this reading as a contrarian indicator, note that it
increased ahead of the recent sell-off.  There has been an awful
lot of red on the screen lately, driving the VIX back up and the
next resistance level on the chart is in the 35-36 range.   If
the recent sell-off continues and we test Dow 8500, expect the
VIX to hit that resistance and puts to increase in value a little
more than their current deltas might imply.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 34.28 +2.14
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 54.16 +0.61

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.89        532,015       472,769
Equity Only    0.70        426,044       299,664
OEX            0.96         22,540        21,608
QQQ            1.20         87,209       104,399

-----------------------------------------------------------------
$bpnya
Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          50      - 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    75      - 7     Bull Correction
Dow Indust.   70      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       67      - 1     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       68      - 7     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Arms Index   1.53
10-Day Arms Index  1.29
21-Day Arms Index  1.25
55-Day Arms Index  1.18

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1118          1645
NASDAQ     1240          1935

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         33              30
NASDAQ       73              33

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1512
NASDAQ     1442

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/26/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added 8,000 contracts to the short side, while adding
fewer than 1,000 to the long side.  Small traders added almost
9,000 long contracts, while increasing short positions by only
4,000.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
11/05/02      438,546   472,384   (33,838)   (3.7%)
11/12/02      437,683   476,540   (38,857)   (4.3%)
11/19/02      446,668   480,270   (33,602)   (3.6%)
11/26/02      447,024   488,250   (41,226)   (4.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/05/02      138,604    76,032    65,572     30.5%
11/12/02      141,389    70,624    70,765     33.4%
11/19/02      143,070    77,332    65,738     29.8%
11/26/02      155,975    81,962    74,013     31.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials added 1,000 long contracts and left shorts relatively
unchanged.  Small traders added 1,300 long contracts and 1,800
shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/05/02       49,128     56,121    (6,993) ( 6.6%)
11/12/02       45,647     55,892   (10,245) (10.1%)
11/19/02       42,074     52,302   (10,228) (10.7%)
11/26/02       43,231     52,425   ( 9,194) ( 9.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
11/05/02       13,355    12,903       452     1.7%
11/12/02       12,698     8,801     3,897    18.1%
11/19/02       16,292    10,540     5,752    21.4%
11/26/02       17,574    12,329     5,245    17.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced long positions by 3,000 contracts, while
reducing shorts by only 700.  Small traders increased both
positions by approximately 2,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/05/02       22,533    15,687    6,846      17.9%
11/12/02       22,283    14,953    7,330      19.6%
11/19/02       23,535    15,741    7,794      19.8%
11/26/02       20,499    15,015    5,484      15.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
11/05/02        5,089     8,735    (3,646)   (26.4%)
11/12/02        5,736     8,513    (2,777)   (19.5%)
11/19/02        4,428     8,203    (3,775)   (29.9%)
11/26/02        6,544    10,350    (3,806)   (22.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 12-05-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  TECD

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     AIG
  Bullish Play Updates:  TSCO
  Bearish Play Updates:  DLX

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AHC, ICOS

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Tech Data Corp. - TECD - cls: 28.00 chg: -1.60 stop: 30.71 *new*

A promising beginning for this short play!  TECD reached our
action trigger of $29.49 within the first half-hour of trading on
Thursday morning.  Shares eventually bounced from the $28.00
level, but found solid resistance at $28.50 for the rest of the
session.  Pull up a 15-minute chart and you'll see that TECD has
stair-stepped its way lower since Monday, with similar intraday
resistance emerging at $30.00 and $30.50.  Looks like someone's
really leaning on the stock, doesn't it?  Today's decline to new
relative lows is obviously an encouraging development for the
bears.  We're also excited about the breakdown below bullish
support on the point-and-figure chart.  With TECD trading lower
on stronger-than-average volume and also showing relative
weakness versus the NASDAQ, we think there's a high probability
of a decline to the $24-$26 area.  New short entries can be
targeted on another rollover from $28.50, although aggressive
bears might want to add to positions on a move below $27.97.  Our
stop has been moved down to $30.71.  More conservative traders
could use a stop slightly above $30.00.

Picked on December 5th at $29.49
Results since picked:      +1.49
Earnings Date           11/25/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

American Intl. Group - AIG - cls: 61.15 chg: -1.46 stop: *text*

Company Description:
AIG is the world's leading U.S.-based international insurance and
financial services organization, the largest underwriter of
commercial and industrial insurance in the United States, and
among the top-ranked U.S. life insurers. Its member companies
write a wide range of general insurance and life insurance
products for commercial, institutional and individual customers
through a variety of distribution channels in approximately 130
countries and jurisdictions throughout the world. AIG's global
businesses also include financial services, retirement savings
and asset management. AIG's financial services businesses include
aircraft leasing, financial products, trading and market making,
and consumer finance. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
"Sell the news" has been the mantra for insurance investors
following President Bush's signing of the Terrorism Insurance
bill.  The legislation was largely seen as a boon for providers
of property and casualty policies - so much so that some pundits
criticized it as a handout to the large insurance companies.  But
while stocks within the sector moved higher ahead of the bill's
passage, investors have had a distinct sell-side bias ever since.
The IUX.X insurance index has dropped to the lower end of its
multi-week trading range and is now threatening to fall below the
50-dma at 259.  On a similar note, AIG is in danger of breaking
to relative lows.  The technical picture worsened considerably
today after shares fell below the 50-dma ($62.10) and triggered a
triple-bottom sell signal on the point-and-figure chart.  With a
loss of 2.3%, shares showed relative weakness versus both the Dow
Jones and IUX.X.  The descending oscillators don't lend much
credence to the idea that AIG will rebound anytime soon.  Bears,
however, will point out that the stock is resting just above
bullish p-n-f support at $61.00, which also provided support
during a pullback on November 1st.  That's why we won't enter
this play until shares trade at or below $60.94.  Additional
support lurks at $60.00, but we won't expect the bulls to put up
much of a fight at this level if the IUX is breaking to new lows.
In terms of downside potential, AIG has a large "fast-move"
region below $60.00.  We'll be looking for shares to retrace the
rapid gains from early-October and retest the $52.00 level.
Shorter-term traders could target a move to $55.  If the play is
activated our stop will be located at $65.51, slightly above the
200-dma.  Those who aren't willing to harbor as much risk could
use a stop just above Tuesday's high of $63.71.

Picked on December xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date:          10/24/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Tractor Supply Co. - TSCO - cls: 43.89 chg: -0.60 stop: *text*

TSCO continues to look like a good long play, but shares just
haven't been able to shrug off the weakening broader market.  The
stock is holding near all-time highs and has more-or-less moved
sideways over the past two sessions.  It basically seems to be
working off some steam from the mid-November rally off $37.00.
Bears have been asserting themselves in the $44.75-$45.00 range,
but we suspect this resistance will fail if the market starts to
head higher.  We're basing this outlook on the fact that TSCO has
shown relative strength this week: Shares are down 2.9% from
Monday's high, while the Dow has given back 4.6%.  The upturning
daily stochastics are an indication that shares may be able to
trade higher in the near-term.  We're keeping our entry price at
$45.51, with a stop (if the play is triggered) at $42.49.

Picked on November xxth at $xx.xx <-- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/14/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Deluxe Corp. - DLX - close: 42.55 change: +0.15 stop: 44.09

Well, DLX has certainly done a good job of trading contrary to
the market.  Shares had shown a tendency to underperform the Dow
Jones, ultimately leading to a violation of support at $42.00.
This short play was triggered yesterday when the stock fell to
new multi-month lows.  The subsequent rebound from the $41.00
area carried DLX back into positive territory.  Shares continued
to trade strong on Thursday morning before encountering
resistance at $43.00.  The stock's small gain could be considered
a victory for the bulls, considering the Dow saw a triple-digit
loss for the session.  News that S&P assigned a "single-A" rating
to the company's long-term debt helped shares to trade higher.  A
glance at the daily chart also helps to explain this relative
strength - DLX rebounded near the bottom of its descending
channel.  Interestingly, today's early-morning rally came to a
halt near the top of this channel.  Now that some shorts have had
the opportunity to cover their positions, our expectation is that
DLX will continue its multi-week downtrend.  New short entries
can be evaluated on a rollover from current levels, although
those seeking for bearish confirmation will probably want to wait
for shares to fall below $41.00.

Picked on December 4th at $41.28
Results since picked:      -1.27
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 57.19 change: +0.66 stop: 54.99 *new*

Crude oil futures (cl03f) moved higher on Thursday, amid
political unrest in Venezuela.  A strike organized by opponents
of leftist President Hugo Chavez has essentially brought the
country's oil industry to a standstill.  State oil executives
have joined the labor stoppage, while tanker captains are simply
refusing to move their ships.  Throw in continued uncertainty
related to the Iraq weapons inspections, and it's easy to see how
the prospect of decreased supply has pushed up the price of oil.
AHC followed crude futures on Wednesday and reached a new
relative high.  Given the steady uptrend and recent pattern of
relative strength, we think chances are good that shares will
reach our profit-target at $58.50.  But with the stock showing a
9.1% gain from our entry point, conservative traders may want to
consider taking profits at current levels.  (Those looking to
maintain some bullish exposure to oil could actually think about
scaling into Apache (APA).  The stock is looking strong after
breaking above its converging 50-day and 20-day moving averages.
A move above resistance in the $56.00 area could send shares
towards $58.50-$60.00.)  Our stop for this AHC play has been
raised to $54.99, which is roughly 5% from our entry point.
Traders looking to protect a larger gain could use a stop just
below $56.00.

Picked on November 12th at $52.41
Results since picked:       +4.78
Earnings Date            10/24/02 (confirmed)




---

ICOS Corp. - ICOS - close: 30.50 change: -0.15 stop: 28.72

This is decision time for ICOS bulls.  We've been waiting for a
pull back to the $30 level and the stock has fulfilled our
request while also maintaining support at the $30 mark.  Longs
need to consider the broader markets and then look at ICOS.
Currently the Dow Industrials, The NASDAQ Composite and the BTK
Biotech index area all at the bottom of the rising channels with
the NASDAQ as the one exception.  The NAS looks like it may have
pierced the bottom of its channel, which is not good for the
bulls.  If the recent weakness is just a consolidation of the
rally then many traders will be looking for a bounce soon.  If
the profit taking continues, then the markets are headed for a
much sharper pull back than expected.  Watch these levels: if the
Industrials break 8500, the NASDAQ breaks 1400 or the BTK breaks
355-350 then ICOS will likely follow suit as short-term bulls
seek to cash in on the recent up trend.  Those traders willing to
bet on the bounce can attempt to position long positions in ICOS
near $30, but we would use a very tight stop of only 2% to limit
risk and if the markets slip again odds are good you'll lose that
2%.  Traders following shares of ICOS can also keep in mind that
the stock "should" have significant support at the $29.00 to
$28.00 area.  The 200-dma is currently just under $28.  The PI
newsletter is currently at "risk" for $1.33 from the entry point
of $30.05.  More conservative traders may want to adjust their
exposure.

Picked on November 22nd at $30.05
Results since picked:       +0.45
Earnings Date            11/05/02 (confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CBT     Cabot Corp                 27.45     +1.04
PIR     Pier 1 Imports             20.18     +0.55
STR     Questar Corp               26.75     +0.62
BMHC    Building Materials         14.60     +0.89

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

NFLX    Netflix Inc                11.00     +1.05
ACAI    Atlantic Coast Airlines    12.86     +2.04
FTE     France Telecom             19.03     +2.59
FHRX    First Horizon Pharma.       7.03     +1.62

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change
HRH     Rogal & Hamilton           40.50     +1.85
IGEN    Igen Intl.                 40.33     +2.93
CIMA    Cima Labs                  28.58     +2.03
OVER    Overture Services          27.82     +2.32
ALK     Alaska Airlines            21.71     +1.56
DGX     Quest Diagnostics          59.89     +1.89
ABCO    Advisory Board             32.57     +1.99

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SNPS    Synopsys Inc               43.96     -4.14
CBK     Christopher & Banks        23.00     -3.90
DPMI    DuPont Photomasks          23.89     -1.46
BARZ    Barra Inc                  33.00     -3.23
IFIN    Investors Financial Svcs.  30.55     -1.67
KMB     Kimberly Clark             48.30     -2.85

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change
BA      Boeing Co                  32.96     -0.97
EQR     Equity Residential         25.66     -0.32
WTNY    Whitney Holding Corp       32.87     -0.70
WL      Wilmington Trust           30.77     -0.60
TVL     LIN TV Corp                23.68     -0.32




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