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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 12/12/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 12-12-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      New Streak?
Play-of-the-Day:  Promising Results
Market Sentiment: Just Say No


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      12-12-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8538.61 - 50.50  8615.13  8510.84 1.53 bln   1646/1569
NASDAQ   1399.55 +  3.00  1411.69  1388.51 1.39 bln   1633/1702
S&P 100   458.54 -  2.15   462.32   456.10   Totals   3279/3271
S&P 500   901.58 -  3.38   908.37   897.00
RUS 2000  395.36 +  1.48   396.37   393.37
DJ TRANS 2336.46 - 11.60  2349.56  2325.46
VIX        30.81 -  0.59    31.86    30.38
VXN        51.05 -  0.57    52.41    50.51
Total Vol   3,108M
Total UpVol 1,681M
Total DnVol 1,376M
52wk Highs   109
52wk Lows    124
TRIN        1.18
PUT/CALL    0.77
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

New Streak?

Today was the third day in a new losing streak that most
investors are ignoring. The losing streak I am referring to
is not the jobless claims or retail sales but the new 52 week
highs and lows. A new trend is emerging and traders should be
aware of it.

Dow Chart - Daily

Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Just when economists would have you believe that new jobs are
being created and the record unemployment number from last week
was an error the jobless claims deflated their argument. The
new claims for the week soared to 441,000 and a level not seen
since April. Analysts who ignored the holiday impact last week
when bragging about the artificially low numbers were quick to
claim holiday impact for this week to diminish the reaction to
this very bad report. The headline number for the week was
+63,000 over the consensus estimate of 378,000 claims. Claims
for the prior week were also revised upward slightly. Considering
the pace of layoffs rose sharply in Oct/Nov this is not a welcome
sign. A new wave of layoffs in the airline sector due to the
UAL bankruptcy could add to the current tide. New hiring is
not increasing and the risk of a jobless recovery, if any, is
increasing.

Another misleading number came from the November Retail Sales
report. The headline number came in at +0.4% and surprised
nearly everyone who has been following the weak same store
sales reports. The November number was held up almost entirely
by sales at Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores, Appliances
and Building Materials. Furniture stores showed a spike in sales
of +2.3% in one month after averaging only +0.17% over the last
seven months. Why? With the boom in housing now a year old why
would one month suddenly spike +1000% from the prior months
+0.2% number? Is this another instance of a number that will
be revised downward next month? Nobody knows today but the
fact remains that mall stores are in trouble. The numbers for
department stores dropped -1.4% and clothing stores -1.3%.
General Merchandise stores only gained +0.3%, which was a -75%
drop from October. With retail stores already complaining
about holiday sales the outlook for the December numbers is
not good.

Also weighing on the markets today was the FOMC minutes from
the November meeting. The Fed saw dissipating stimulus as a
problem which means the impact of the first series of rate
cuts was slowing and the vaccinations did not work. The Fed
decided that another larger injection was required to slap
the economy out of its doldrums. They decided that risk of
inflation from such a move was minimal considering the lack
of movement in the economy to date. The biggest argument was
the change in the bias back to neutral. Several members
opposed the move back to neutral based on the severity of the
current problem. They were swayed to go along with the decision
by discussions of market reaction to a 50 point rate cut and
leaving the bias to further reductions. There was a fear the
markets would self destruct due to the Fed's negative outlook.
No kidding! Now that the truth is out there for all to see the
markets did not self destruct but they are far from happy
about the Fed's concerned outlook. The concern is that the
soft spot in the economy does not become a black hole.

Also putting the brakes on the holiday sentiment were several
geopolitical concerns. One news report claimed that Al-Queda
had acquired VX nerve gas from Iraq over the last couple months
and the weapons had disappeared into the terrorist network.
Iraq of course denied it since a non-denial would mean they
actually had the weapon(s) to begin with. North Korea said
they were restarting their plutonium based nuclear power
program, which the U.S. had claimed was a thinly disguised
effort to build a nuclear weapon. This was a nose thumbing
at the U.S. for being unable to keep the Scud missiles that
were stopped on the way to Yemen. It was also open defiance
to the Bush policy statement yesterday that the U.S. could
and would respond with nuclear weapons if any nation used
a weapon of mass destruction against us. It appears North
Korea is calling our bluff while knowing we cannot attack
them. While this war of words continues on the global school
yard the markets are beginning to show signs of concern.
Reports also surfaced that IRAN could be close to developing
nuclear weapons after news reports that two different nuclear
plants for weapons production were under construction.

The assets in all money market mutual funds rose by +$10.36
billion in the week ended Dec-11th. However, retail MM funds
fell -$3.64 billion. The overall gains were due to institutions
stashing cash to the tune of +$14.55 billion last week. While
retail investors were taking money out for the holidays or to
put into the markets, corporations were adding to cash reserves
instead of stocks. Since the market dropped during that week
it appears corporations were selling stocks just when a
typically bullish period was about to begin. Makes you wonder
if Santa Clause is really coming to town.

CIEN provided hope for tech investors today and was probably
the main reason the Nasdaq finished in positive territory.
CIEN raised its guidance for the first quarter and predicted
a lower than expected loss. After taking huge write offs for
restructuring over the last two years any positive outlook
is an improvement. CIEN gapped up to $6.20 on the news for
a gain of +20%.

Unfortunately it did not help the Semiconductor sector. Despite
the positive TSM news about better than expected sales from
the largest foundry in the world and affirmed guidance from
several major chip companies the sector remains flat. The
comments from Intel CEO Andy Grove continue to weigh on the
sector. He said on Tuesday that it might be too early to
forecast a rebound in the sector despite recent industry
reports indicating an upturn may be on the horizon. He said
Intel had not seen any material increase in overall chip sales
and for the sector to pull out of the doldrums companies would
need to cut back on capacity on a global scale. Don't hold
your breath.

The new streak I mentioned earlier was the new lows beating
the highs for the third straight day 124 to 109. While this
is not a break away rout it is a troubling indicator. The
Dow remains trapped in the 8500-8600 range and it appears the
ceiling is dropping faster than support is getting higher. In
this typically bullish period the most bullish indicator from
Thursday was the gain in the Russell-2000 to 395 but it was
a weak gain and stopped just below strong resistance at 400.
There is simply no conviction for a further rally and the
lack of volume, only 3.1 billion total, makes it tough for
bulls to force any gains.

Several of the big caps in the Dow are looking particularly
weak including MMM, IBM, JNJ, IP and WMT. This should be the
best quarter of the year for Wal-Mart as the biggest discount
retailer yet investors are fleeing the stock. IBM said they
were busy and were not asking employees to take extra time
off like other tech companies but the stock has dropped
nearly $10 in two weeks. MMM closed within cents of breaking
its 100 and 200 DMA.

While I am not trying to paint a bearish picture there is
cause for concern. I had originally expected this week to be
up slightly with a dip before Christmas week to prime the
typical holiday rally. If this was the bullish week I hate
to see what next week could bring. Actually, I think we are
safe from any major market drop with very strong support
just below us from 8350-8500. It appears we are going to
drift just above that support until something happens to
energize the buyers. War talk on multiple fronts, live
fire exercises only ten miles from Iraq and the word nuclear
being used more in one day than in the past six months is
enough to make even the most aggressive investor a conservative.
The +$14 billion of institutional money moving into money
market funds instead of stocks is confirmation of that idea.
With the big caps resting on critical support there is
potential for strong holiday gains but there is also the
potential for those gains to evaporate just as quickly.
As investors maybe we should be investing in the malls
instead of the markets next week.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


===============
Play-of-the-Day   (New BULLISH high-risk/high-reward play)
===============

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 34.84 change: +0.63 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corporation is a leader in the discovery,
development, and commercialization of targeted immunotherapies for
the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases. IDEC discovered and
developed the first monoclonal antibody product (Rituxan.) and the
first radioimmunotherapy product (Zevalin.) approved in the United
States for the treatment of cancer. IDEC is a San Diego based,
integrated biopharmaceutical company with multiple products in
clinical stage development and strategic alliances in a variety of
research platforms. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In the ever-changing and speculative world of biotechnology,
investors find a good deal of comfort in companies that are
actually producing drugs with promising results.  Such is the
case with IDEC Pharmaceuticals.  The company announced on Monday
that an investigational study of its Rituxan drug had "indicated
a 55% reduced risk of disease progression in patients with
indolent non-Hodgkin's lymphoma."  Although Rituxan has already
received FDA approval, cancer study groups are carrying out
larger studies to evaluate the effectiveness of using the drug
for extended treatment.  Further positive news came on Tuesday,
when the company said that a clinical trial of IDEC-114 (a Phase
I/II drug) was successful in treating follicular non-Hodgkin's
lymphoma.  IDEC-114 has got a long way to go before it's
marketable in the U.S., but these results are certainly a good
start.

Buoyed by the recent developments, IDPH has started to move into
its November 26th gap, which resulted from a Merrill Lynch
downgrade.  Once this gap is filled, the daily chart doesn't show
any significant overhead resistance until the $40.00 area.  The
rising stochastics (5,3,3) and fresh bullish MACD crossover
suggest that IDPH will be able to extend this week's breakout
above short-term resistance at $34.00.  Additionally,
shareholders can be encouraged by the recent three-box reversal
on the p-n-f chart.  In terms of sector strength, we like how the
BTK.X biotech index has bounced from its converging 50-day and
100-day moving averages near 350.  The BTK.X showed good relative
strength on Thursday with a 1.5% gain.  Shares of IDEC outpaced
the index by tacking on 1.8%.  Our strategy for playing IDPH will
be as follows: We'll enter this paper trade once the stock moves
above $35.60.  Our stop will be located at $33.24 if the play is
activated.  Slightly more aggressive traders could use a stop
just below $33.00.  As far as upside targets are concerned, we're
initially going to shoot for a move to the $40.00 area.  The
descending 50-dma at $39.66 might throw a wrench in our plans, so
we'll re-evaluate our exit strategy if/when the stock approaches
that moving average.

Picked on December xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/16/02 (confirmed)





================
Market Sentiment
================

Just Say No
by Steven Price

We haven't seen this much slow drifting since the continents
divided.  Or that's how it seemed today.  We played up to
yesterday's highs and yesterday's lows, but got no real breakout
in either direction.  We've tested support and resistance,
following this morning's economic data and each move had analysts
citing a different facet of the numbers.

In reality, it seems that the low volumes heading into the
holiday season simply are not producing enough momentum in either
direction to get rolling.  This morning's retail data showed
retail sales up 0.4% in November, which was higher than
expectations of a 0.2% gain.  However, the increases came mostly
from stores selling hardware and furniture, underscoring the
effect that continuing low interest rates are having on home
purchasing and remodeling. The other side of the coin was the
decline in sales at traditional mall-type stores.  I've been
beating the drum about the lack of spending heading into the
holiday season.  It appears as though I was only partially right.
Consumers are still spending in a few places, just not in the
stores that sell non-home related merchandise.  I expect those
numbers to continue to reflect ugliness as we finish out the
holiday shopping season. I also think the same store sales
numbers will not reflect the aggressive price markdowns in the
next couple of weeks and when earnings time rolls around for many
retailers, we'll get a better picture of just how little shoppers
spent on gifts.

The other significant economic data out this morning were the
initial and continuing jobless claims numbers. Because of the
season, the weekly numbers are difficult to dissect, but weekly
jobless claims were up 83,000 to 441,00.  This was the first
increase in a month and raised the four-week moving average by
10,000 claims.  It still remained under the 400,000 mark that
economists consider an important gauge for an improving or
declining picture.  However, the number of continuing claims,
which increased in the last data release, did drop significantly.
That indicates one of two things. Either unemployed workers are
dropping off the list as their benefits run out, or they are
starting to find jobs. I'm leaning toward the first possibility,
since I haven't heard about anyone hiring with any regularity
recently and that is definitely a negative for the economy.
However, this season does bring quite a bit of volatility in
these numbers, so I'm not betting the farm on them, just paying
close attention.

Oil prices are headed higher, following an OPEC meeting today, at
which the group raised its production quotas.  While this may
seem contrary to basic economics, the move was actually aimed at
curtailing the current cheating on the old quota.  The quota of
21.7 million barrels per day has been largely ignored, as the
group has been producing an average of over 24 million barrels.
Today's meeting, which set a new quota of 23 million barrels, was
aimed at raising the quota, and agreeing to reign in the recent
overproduction, in effect lowering total supply.

The markets finished mostly in the red for the day, but right in
the middle of recent trading ranges. The Dow finished down 51.22,
but successfully tested support around 8500.  The SPX finished
down 3.43, but held up over 900.  The Nasdaq Composite finished
up on the day, but failed to hold over 1400, with a close of
1399.29.  Confused on direction?  I hope so, since we are simply
bouncing around without a significant trend right now.  As
volumes get lighter toward the holidays, we can expect more of
this.  However, if we do get some moves through resistance or
support, sometimes light volume leads to a vacuum effect with a
big move, since there are fewer buyers and sellers to get in the
way.

We saw a number of conflicting signals from different markets, as
well.  We usually see an uptick in the bond market as cash shifts
from equities into treasuries in bearish markets.  However, today
saw selling in both the equities and the five and ten year notes.
The dollar dropped, as well, another bearish signal.  However, as
I mentioned earlier, support is not only holding, but we are
getting slightly higher bottoms on a daily basis. We are simply
not seeing multiple market confirmation of a trend right now, and
although I am getting a bearish "feel," I don't have the numbers
to back it up. Until that time, I'll play small and take profits
quickly when they are present.  Many analysts try to force things
when trading is slow, searching for indications, rather than
identifying that signals are unclear.  There is nothing wrong
with knowing when to take a step back and right now appears to be
one of those times.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8538

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8668
 50-dma: 8394
200-dma: 9122

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  901

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  913
 50-dma:  887
200-dma:  974

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1039

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1063
 50-dma:  999
200-dma: 1106

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Retail Index (RLX.X): The RLX saw some action today, as
retail sales for the month of November were released this
morning. The data showed a 0.4% gain, which was better than
expectations, leading to an initial surge in the sector. However,
once the data was digested, it became apparent that the increase
was more related to the housing boom, than a rush of shoppers
hitting stores ahead of Christmas. There were increases in
furniture and hardware, typically related to home improvements
and new home purchases, while there was a drop-off in mall and
department store sales.  This mirrors what we've been hearing
from stores such as Wal-Mart and Federated, which is that holiday
sales have been soft. By the end of the day, the index has traded
in a 5 point range, finishing almost unchanged at -0.29.

52-week High: n/a
52-week Low : 244
Current     : 279

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 285
 50-dma: 282
 200-dma: 312

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX certainly reflected the aimless drifting we saw in the
broader markets today.  We bounced between previous resistance
and support levels, in a tight range, taking the VIX down
slightly. It remained over 30, however, as the Dow, OEX and SPX
all finished down on the day. The VXN also finished down slightly
as the Nasdaq posted a small gain.


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 30.81 -0.59
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 51.05 -0.57

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.77        486,222       373,419
Equity Only    0.69        374,096       258,028
OEX            0.77         19,870        15,239
QQQ            0.56         56,329        31,597

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          50      + 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    70      + 0     Bull Correction
Dow Indust.   63      + 0     Bear Alert
S&P 500       64      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       64      - 1     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Arms Index   1.26
10-Day Arms Index  1.40
21-Day Arms Index  1.15
55-Day Arms Index  1.17


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1512          1316
NASDAQ     1562          1601

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         43              29
NASDAQ       50              34

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1518
NASDAQ     1383

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 12/03/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials reduced long positions by about 3,000 contracts,
while reducing shorts by only 800. Small traders increased
long positions by 6,000 contracts and shorts by 600.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
11/12/02      437,683   476,540   (38,857)   (4.3%)
11/19/02      446,668   480,270   (33,602)   (3.6%)
11/26/02      447,024   488,250   (41,226)   (4.4%)
12/03/02      444,345   487,411   (43,066)   (4.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/12/02      141,389    70,624    70,765     33.4%
11/19/02      143,070    77,332    65,738     29.8%
11/26/02      155,975    81,962    74,013     31.1%
12/03/02      162,192    82,584    79,608     32.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials left positions mostly unchanged with a small
percentage increase to the long side and a small decrease to the
short position. Small traders reduced long positions by 4,000
contracts, while reducing shorts by 2,500.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/12/02       45,647     55,892   (10,245) (10.1%)
11/19/02       42,074     52,302   (10,228) (10.7%)
11/26/02       43,231     52,425   ( 9,194) ( 9.6%)
12/03/02       43,709     51,977   ( 8,268) ( 8.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
11/12/02       12,698     8,801     3,897    18.1%
11/19/02       16,292    10,540     5,752    21.4%
11/26/02       17,574    12,329     5,245    17.5%
12/03/02       13,749     9,869     3,880    16.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials maintained the status quo, while small traders showed
small reductions to long and short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/12/02       22,283    14,953    7,330      19.6%
11/19/02       23,535    15,741    7,794      19.8%
11/26/02       20,499    15,015    5,484      15.4%
12/03/02       20,176    15,427    4,749      13.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
11/12/02        5,736     8,513    (2,777)   (19.5%)
11/19/02        4,428     8,203    (3,775)   (29.9%)
11/26/02        6,544    10,350    (3,806)   (22.5%)
12/03/02        5,885     9,781    (3,896)   (24.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright ) 2002  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 12-12-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  MERQ, NVDA
  Bearish Play Updates:  TECD

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates:  AIG, DLX, HRB

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     IDPH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish play Updates
  --------------------

Mercury Interactive - MERQ - cls: 31.50 chg: +0.32 stop: 28.48

Shares of MERQ traded strong on Wednesday morning after Siebel
Systems (SEBL) tapped Mercury to provide testing services.  The
stock reached our entry trigger ($30.27) shortly after the
opening bell, gravitated towards the $31.00 area, and closed near
the best levels of the session.  Today's action saw some morning
profit-taking before buyers stepped in near the bottom of the
December 6th gap.  The stock climbed higher in afternoon trading
and closed with a 1.0% gain.  Not too shabby, considering the
NASDAQ's flat performance.  P-n-f chartists will note that the
intraday high of $32.00 created a three-box reversal.  Traders
looking to open new long positions can watch for a move above
this level.  We're keeping our stop set at $28.48, while those
with a more conservative strategy could use a stop slightly below
$30.00.  In related sector news tonight, ADBE reported Q4 results
that were 2 cents better than expectations.  This should help to
give the software group a bullish spin on Friday morning.

Picked on December 11th at $30.27
Results since picked:       +1.23
Earnings Date            10/17/02 (confirmed)




---

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 13.78 change: -0.23 stop: 12.87

Comments from the CEO of videogame-maker THQI helped to send NVDA
higher this morning.  Speaking at a media conference in New York,
chief executive Brian Farrell said that Microsoft's X-box has
been "gaining traction" over the last six weeks.  Meanwhile,
sales of Nintendo's Game Cube have continued to struggle.  That's
good news for NVIDIA, who derives 20% of its income from the X-
box.  A downgrade of THQI from Banc of America Securities didn't
seem to damper the early-morning bullishness in NVDA.  This long
play was activated at the opening trade of $14.53 when shares
gapped above our action trigger.  The stock looked strong early
in the session but wasn't able to fight the sinking broader
market.  Investors also may have been reacting to news (which hit
the wires shortly before 11:30 EST) that NVDA was expecting $80-
$90 million in capital spending for fiscal 2003.  The previous
year's capital expenditures came in at $97 million.  Whether this
is positive or negative is up for debate.  Bears will argue that
lower capex might reflect a slowdown in business.  The opposite
argument would be that the reduction in spending will boost the
bottom line.  In any case, NVDA displayed some disconcerting
relative weakness during the afternoon.  If this weakness carries
over into Friday's session we'll be looking for the stock to find
buyers at the $13.50-$13.75 area.  Our stop is set at $12.87.
Looking at the bigger picture, bulls can be encouraged by today's
higher high and the three-box p-n-f reversal.  New long entries
can be considered if NVDA moves above today's high of $14.70.

Picked on December 12th at $14.53
Results since picked:       -0.75
Earnings Date            11/07/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Tech Data Corp. - TECD - cls: 27.59 chg: -0.38 stop: 30.71

Tech Data announced this morning that they had redeemed $300
million in convertible notes ahead of schedule, resulting in
savings of $3 million.  The company's CFO said a "strong balance
sheet" had allowed them to repurchase the bonds ahead of their
maturity date.  That's all well and good, but it wasn't enough to
lift TECD out of its recent sideways trading pattern.  Shares
have been consolidating in an increasingly narrow range following
the rapid descent from $31.00.  This suggests to us that TECD may
make a big move once it breaks out (or breaks down).  A violation
of the relative low ($26.72) would clear the way for a test of
the $25.00 area.  We're setting an official profit-target just
above this level of psychological support at $25.11.  Although
our stop is unchanged, conservative traders could use a stop
slightly above Tuesday's high of $28.86.  With no clear action
points, we would not advise taking new short positions at this
time.

Picked on December 5th at $29.49
Results since picked:      +1.90
Earnings Date           11/25/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

American Intl. Group - AIG - cls: 60.09 chg: -1.53 stop: 65.51

The oversold bounce in AIG that materialized earlier this week
had absolutely no staying power.  The bears piled onboard once
the stock reached its 50-dma ($62.51) on Wednesday afternoon.
Shares trended lower during today's session and underperformed
the broader market with a 2.4% loss.  Shares also showed relative
weakness versus the IUX.X insurance index, which drifted lower by
1.4%.  AIG can't seem to attract much buying attention after
rolling over from moving average resistance.  A close below
support at $60.00 was averted by the narrowest of margins today.
With the p-n-f chart still looking weak and the MACD drifting
lower, we think odds are good that AIG will soon be trading at
fresh lows.  New entries can be targeted on a move under the
relative low of $59.42.  Another failed rally at the 50-dma might
also yield an entry point.  For the time being we're keeping our
stop at $65.51.

Picked on December 6th at $60.80
Results since picked:      +0.71
Earnings Date           10/24/02 (confirmed)




---

Deluxe Corp. - DLX - close: 41.99 change: +0.13 stop: 44.09

It's not pretty, but DLX has slowly been moving in a southbound
direction ever since it topped out under the 200-dma last Friday.
The stock has posted lower highs and lower lows over the past
four sessions.  Shares showed some relative strength today with a
fractional gain but weren't able to close above intraday
resistance at $42.00.  Interestingly, these gains came on the
weakest volume since the shorted post-Thanksgiving session.  This
maintains the pattern of lighter volume on up days.  Further
technical encouragement can be gleaned from the falling daily
stochastics (5,3,3) and negative MACD histogram.  DLX looks like
it could reach new multi-month lows within the next few sessions
if the current downtrend remains intact.  Traders looking to open
new positions can continue to watch for a breakdown below $41.00.

Picked on December 4th at $41.28
Results since picked:      -0.71
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)




---

H&R Block - HRB - close: 38.04 change: -1.24 stop: *text*

Another failed rally for HRB.  The stock posted some decent gains
on Wednesday but wasn't able to muster a test of the 50-dma at
$39.73.  Heavy selling on Thursday morning sent shares back
towards the $38.00 region.  Then, shortly before the closing bell
this afternoon, word came from New York that HRB had agreed to a
$4.2 million payout to settle a lawsuit related to high-interest
loans that were given in advance of tax refunds.  These sort of
legal problems have plagued HRB for some time, and today's
settlement underscores the very real impact that the litigation
is having on the bottom line.  Shares drifted lower after the
news was announced.  In light of the stock's inability to
maintain any short-term gains, we feel justified in maintaining a
bearish entry trigger at $36.98, with a stop at $40.01.  We think
the bears have the upper hand as long as HRB remains under its
descending 50-dma.

Picked on December xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date:           11/26/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 34.84 change: +0.63 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corporation is a leader in the discovery,
development, and commercialization of targeted immunotherapies for
the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases. IDEC discovered and
developed the first monoclonal antibody product (Rituxan.) and the
first radioimmunotherapy product (Zevalin.) approved in the United
States for the treatment of cancer. IDEC is a San Diego based,
integrated biopharmaceutical company with multiple products in
clinical stage development and strategic alliances in a variety of
research platforms. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In the ever-changing and speculative world of biotechnology,
investors find a good deal of comfort in companies that are
actually producing drugs with promising results.  Such is the
case with IDEC Pharmaceuticals.  The company announced on Monday
that an investigational study of its Rituxan drug had "indicated
a 55% reduced risk of disease progression in patients with
indolent non-Hodgkin's lymphoma."  Although Rituxan has already
received FDA approval, cancer study groups are carrying out
larger studies to evaluate the effectiveness of using the drug
for extended treatment.  Further positive news came on Tuesday,
when the company said that a clinical trial of IDEC-114 (a Phase
I/II drug) was successful in treating follicular non-Hodgkin's
lymphoma.  IDEC-114 has got a long way to go before it's
marketable in the U.S., but these results are certainly a good
start.

Buoyed by the recent developments, IDPH has started to move into
its November 26th gap, which resulted from a Merrill Lynch
downgrade.  Once this gap is filled, the daily chart doesn't show
any significant overhead resistance until the $40.00 area.  The
rising stochastics (5,3,3) and fresh bullish MACD crossover
suggest that IDPH will be able to extend this week's breakout
above short-term resistance at $34.00.  Additionally,
shareholders can be encouraged by the recent three-box reversal
on the p-n-f chart.  In terms of sector strength, we like how the
BTK.X biotech index has bounced from its converging 50-day and
100-day moving averages near 350.  The BTK.X showed good relative
strength on Thursday with a 1.5% gain.  Shares of IDEC outpaced
the index by tacking on 1.8%.  Our strategy for playing IDPH will
be as follows: We'll enter this paper trade once the stock moves
above $35.60.  Our stop will be located at $33.24 if the play is
activated.  Slightly more aggressive traders could use a stop
just below $33.00.  As far as upside targets are concerned, we're
initially going to shoot for a move to the $40.00 area.  The
descending 50-dma at $39.66 might throw a wrench in our plans, so
we'll re-evaluate our exit strategy if/when the stock approaches
that moving average.

Picked on December xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            10/16/02 (confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

UTX     United Technologies        62.16     +0.87
ANF     Abercrombie & Fitch        22.88     +0.63
CBRL    CRBL Group                 28.11     +0.93
GTK     Gtech Holdings             27.37     +2.63

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TVX     TVX Gold                   13.48     +1.33
CIEN    Ciena Corp                  6.20     +1.02
NAP     National Processing        16.18     +1.57
GFI     Gold Fields Ltd            14.50     +1.32
AEM     Agnico-Eagle Mines         13.73     +1.04

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

AMGN    Amgen Inc                  50.45     +3.18
WEN     Wendy's Intl.              28.18     +1.39
COLM    Columbia Sportswear        47.44     +1.24
NEM     Newmont Mining             28.11     +1.11
ESV     Ensco Intl                 30.60     +2.16
USTR    United Stationers          32.20     +1.11
BR      Burlington Resources       43.00     +1.06
-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SPW     SPX Corp                   41.65     -1.94
BVF     Biovail Corp               30.01     -2.50
HOC     Holly Corp                 20.65     -1.65
IP      International Paper        34.76     -1.34

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

                             




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