PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-16-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Ho Ho Ho Watch List: BSTE, MTG, NAV, NVLS, OIH, and more... Play of the Day: Follow the Leader ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** 12-16-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decl DJIA 8627.40 + 193.69 8627.54 8434.74 1497 mln 1223/254 NASDAQ 1400.33 + 37.91 1400.49 1365.66 1375 mln 1018/342 S&P 100 463.26 + 11.45 463.27 451.81 totals 2241/606 S&P 500 910.40 + 20.92 910.42 889.48 RUS 2000 394.90 + 6.92 394.90 387.98 DJ TRANS 2359.00 + 40.53 2359.65 2318.04 VIX 29.98 - 2.14 32.73 29.83 VIXN 49.84 - 1.08 52.15 48.81 Put/Call Ratio 0.98 ****************************************************************** =========== Market Wrap =========== Ho Ho Ho by Steven Price Did Santa Claus come early? It certainly appeared that way, as we got a broad market rally heading into the year-end stretch. We have seen a historical up trend in the final weeks of trading in recent years. However, after Friday afternoon's sell-off, traders were left doubting whether we would see a repeat, of if the economy had been crippled to the point of no return. We got an intraday bounce off of the 50 day moving averages in the SPX, Dow and OEX on Friday, which would be a logical point for an end of year rally to begin. That being said, those rallies looked weak, as they rolled over and headed south into the close. However, with today's action, the market appears as though it may be ready for that end of year rally, as it coincides with a bounce point that came after an extended sell- off. Certainly if we had continued to drop through those 50-dmas today, there was additional support not far below, at the late- October, early November lows. However, if we can break above last week's highs, we may not get another look at those levels before January. Last week's highs coincide closely with point and figure reversal levels in the Dow and OEX, while the S&P 500 reversed itself today. The PnF reversal level in the OEX of 464 is just above the December 11 high of 463.87. The Dow PnF reversal level of 8600 was hit today and comes close to the December 11 high of 8625. The SPX reversed at 905 today, but still has that December 11 resistance of 910 to deal with. The high that day was 909.94. If we can break through those levels, we may see another test of Dow 8800, which coincidentally would appear as a possible right shoulder in a new bearish head and shoulders formation. The last time that pattern appeared to be forming, we instead got a failed right shoulder and big rally up to 9043 in the Dow. So this time around I'll wait for another shoulder and a neckline break before declaring that the sky has fallen. The skinny on today's action is that we certainly ended toward the high end of the recent range, but have yet to break resistance and the pattern of lower highs. Chart of the Dow Chart of the SPX Point and Figure chart of the Dow Point and Figure chart of the SPX A look at the tech indices' point and figure charts, however, paints a different picture. Those indices are actually still in a bullish column of "X" and bounced above their downward reversal levels. The NDX would have reversed down on a trade of 1000, yet reached a low of 1005 before reversing up today. The Nasdaq Composite would have reversed into a bearish column with a trade of 1350, but bounced from 1362. Chart of the NDX Chart of the COMPX The chip stocks, which tend to lead those tech indices, have been range bound for the last several days, with the Semiconductor index (SOX) finding a top at 330 and a bottom at 307. Today's bounce also put it in the top end of that range, but never really tested resistance. There wasn't any official economic data, but we did get some industry signals from which to draw inferences about the economy. First was news from Wal-Mart that sales last week were once again at the low end of its expectations. This has been a trend ever since the one-day revenue record set the day after Thanksgiving. That was most likely a result of the late Thanksgiving holiday and has been shown to be an aberration ever since. Federated declined to give sales results for last week, suggesting it was too early to make a prediction with a high percentage of sales still to come before Christmas. J.C. Penney (JCP) actually posted decent numbers, continuing its recent turnaround. However, JCP's same store sales are still only predicted in the low single digits and it is forecasting a 20% decline in catalog sales. Although I've mentioned this before, I think it is worth mentioning again - the late Thanksgiving pushes a higher percentage of sales toward the last two weeks before Christmas, when aggressive discounting digs into profits. My weekend trip to the largest mall in the Denver area revealed extreme markdowns, which are likely to eat into the retailers' bottom lines. If the same store sales numbers are already poor, then I'd be looking for puts in the sector at the tail end of the year if we get a rally. The earnings numbers should be disappointing when they are released around February and I'd probably look for puts out to March, IF we get the end of year run. That doesn't mean I'd be shorting every stock in the sector, as the home-furnishing retailers still look strong. Last week's retail sales data showed that while mall-type stores saw sharp sales declines, furniture and hardware stores saw significant increases. This is consistent with housing data that shows that while the housing market may be slowing, it still remains strong. Today's release of the Homebuilders index of housing activity came in at 65, which is the highest level since November 2000. That tells us to concentrate short activity on stocks that are not tied to this still strong area of the economy. One other factor to consider is the credit portfolio of many large department stores. Sears (S) took a beating earlier this year when it revealed huge losses in its credit card division, due to under-performing accounts. We got another red flag over the weekend regarding similar problems for Target (TGT). Barron's reported this weekend that the company is seeing rising defaults at its credit card operation. Right now TGT earns a 4% return on its credit card portfolio, which is higher than most credit card companies. Those card companies see a return of around 1.5% and if TGT's portfolio was reduced to similar returns, it could shave as much as $0.15 per share from its earnings for 2003. During the fall, we saw the credit problem taking a bite out of both small and large banks, as companies that didn't make it through tough economic times defaulted on business loans. Last week, we got some comments regarding high net worth individuals suffering the same fate. With the Sears problem highlighted previously, this may be an issue that continues to poke its head out of the sand as unemployment continues at high levels and individuals that hold store credit cards get further behind on payments. Many stores have pushed these cards hard, offering credit to lower income individuals in an effort to boost sales. The higher interest rates looked like a great risk/reward scenario, but appear to have caught up to the issuers, since high interest is only profitable when cardholders actually make payments. The Retail Index (RLX.X) actually finished up on the day, benefiting from the rising tide and suggesting the results weren't quite as bad as expected. Still, I'll be watching that rising tide for short opportunities in the sector. The Market Volatility Index (VIX) certainly indicated that option traders are growing more bullish in the near term. As we embark on expiration week, the VIX calculation discounts December options and shifts the calculation to January and February. Those January and February options lost some relative value today, as the VIX broke down below 30 for the first time since December 2. While some analysts use this reading as a contra- indicator, the 2.14 -point drop reflects a drop in the level of downside fear currently in the market. As technical resistance levels are taken out and we head into a traditionally bullish time of the year, we can expect this number to continue to drop if today's rally holds. One other factor to keep in mind is that a lack of trading will also lower the number, and today's light volume (1.2 billion shares NYSE/1.4 billion Nasdaq) could also be a contributor. Now that we've seen some bullish signals on the point and figure and daily charts, it looks like the near term trend is up. Tomorrow's economic data, which includes CPI, housing starts, industrial production and capacity utilization, could throw a wrench in that prediction, since we had no data today to support the rally. However, from a technical standpoint, we have certainly cleared out some barriers to the formation of that right shoulder I referred to above. Traders can feel bullish for the time being, but that time being may still be pretty short. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Biosite - BSTE - close: 33.80 change: +2.39 WHAT TO WATCH: Like a coiling spring, shares of BSTE traded in an increasingly narrow range in early December. All that built-up tension was released today, when shares exploded to new 52-week highs. This 7.6% gain was accompanied by the strongest volume in almost a month. With no apparent news to explain these gains, it looks like a simple case of short-covering. Shares actually traded to a high of $35.06 today, so buying a breakout to new highs might not be the best strategy for playing BSTE. Rather, we'd prefer to wait for a pullback to the $33.00-$33.50 area before taking any positions. Although the p-n-f chart is currently showing a bullish count of $52, short-term traders will probably want to aim for a move to the $38-$40 region. --- MGIC Investment Corp. - MTG - close: 43.14 change: +1.65 WHAT TO WATCH: This insurance stock has pulled back to an ascending trend of higher lows on the daily chart, which roughly coincides with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. We think MTG has a good shot at retesting the relative highs near $47.50 if the bulls can dispatch short-term resistance at $43.50. --- Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 24.45 change: +0.95 WHAT TO WATCH: The bears piled on NAV after it rolled over from the 200-dma earlier this month. Now that shares have bounced from the 50-dma ($23.13), speculative bulls might want to think about going long. The stock traded higher today, despite Friday's news that the company would lay off 250 employees at one of its Ohio truck plants. NAV would offer an acceptable risk/reward ratio at current levels, using a stop just under the relative low of $22.77. Short-term traders could target a move to the $28.00 area. --- Novellus Systems - NVLS - close: 31.31 change: +2.07 WHAT TO WATCH: Lately it's been tough to get a feel for the chip sector. The SOX.X has basically been rangebound for one week, with support at 307 (slightly above the ascending 50-dma) and resistance at 330. Only savvy daytraders have been able to take advantage of this sideways movement. But if the index finally does break to the upside, NVLS looks like a good bullish candidate on a move above $31.55. Shares outperformed the SOX.X with a 7.0% gain today. This formed a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. The reversing oscillators indicate that NVLS could extend these gains and retrace the steep early-December decline. The 200-dma at $35.51 would be a reasonable short-term profit target. --- New York Times - NYT - close: 45.30 change: -0.22 WHAT TO WATCH: The New York Times has often been accused of having a liberal bias. While that's up for debate, there's no disputing the bearish bias that has gripped NYT over the past six weeks. Shares are trading near relative lows after trending lower from the $50.00 area. Last week's news of an improved newspaper ad outlook for 2003 wasn't enough to keep the stock above solid resistance at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $47.50. NYT is a relatively slow mover. Extrapolating the current downtrend, shares would reach the $41.00 area by late- January/early-February. Those with a compatible trading strategy could think about opening short positions on a breakdown below $45.00. --- Oil Service HOLDRS - OIH - close: 61.27 change: +1.82 WHAT TO WATCH: The ongoing general strike in Venezuela has sent the price of oil soaring to multi-month highs. Crude oil futures (cl03f) spiked to $30.00 on Monday after opponents of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said they had no intentions of ending the labor stoppage, which is in its 15th day. With the fifth-largest oil exporter producing a mere fraction of its normal output, the prospect of reduced supply has given oil bulls the upper hand. This South American turmoil has added to an oil market that's already dealing with the combustible situation in the Middle East. Colin Powell said today he was "skeptical" of the 12,000- page weapons document that was submitted by Iraq last week. While this stance doesn't come as a surprise, it effectively removes the possibility that the weapons document would avert war. Overall there are a lot of catalysts to push oil higher in the near-term. The Oil Service HOLDRS are approaching breakout territory after moving through the 200-dma at $59.78. Glancing at the daily chart, OIH looks like it could reach the $67.00 area if shares move above $62.00. We actually gave strong consideration to these HOLDRS as a long play tonight, but weren't able to justify the risk. We'd hate to give the OIH a tight stop-loss, only to have the play pull back to its ascending trend (near $58.00). On the other hand, using a stop at this level would not provide an acceptable risk/reward setup. Also, the 10- minute chart for crude futures is looking pretty extended. We'd prefer to see some consolidation of today's move before taking long positions. However, traders who are willing to give the OIH a short leash could think about going long on a breakout above $62.00. --- Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 26.54 change: +0.97 WHAT TO WATCH: As a purveyor of expensive jewelry, Tiffany may be less susceptible to a weak economy than most other retailers. The continued strong sales of luxury cars show that many high- income consumers still have plenty of discretionary income. What caught our eye about TIF is the way shares rebounded from the 50- dma ($26.23) on Monday, leaving the two-month trend of higher lows intact. This bounce came on the strongest volume in two weeks. Long entries could be evaluated on a move above today's high $26.60, with a stop just under $25.50. We'd be targeting a rally to the $29-$30 area. The p-n-f chart shows bearish resistance at $30.00. --- Waters Corp - WAT - close: 20.96 change: +0.81 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this scientific instrument manufacturer gapped lower by more than 15% last Friday after the company said a reduction in new orders had resulted in lower expectations for the fourth quarter. Waters reduced its EPS forecast from $0.38- $.40, compared to the previous guidance of $0.46. Shares bounced back on Monday with a 4.0% gain. Although the fundamental weakness may scare away some potential investors, we like how WAT has started to fill in its gap after successfully testing psychological support at $20.00. Aggressive traders can consider long positions on a pullback to that level, or alternatively, on a move above $21.05. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH tech play) ========================= Mercury Interactive - MERQ - close: 31.73 change: +1.42 stop: 28.48 Company Description: Mercury Interactive, the leading provider of software and services that optimize automated business processes, delivers a complete, integrated family of enterprise testing, production tuning and performance management solutions that enable customers to optimize business processes and maximize business results. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: December 10th, 2002 - Why We Like It: Software bulls haven't had much to cheer about over the past week. Pressured by a weakening NASDAQ, the GSO.X moved steadily lower after it spiked above 120 on December 2nd. The subsequent breakdown below the 200-dma sent the software index plummeting towards the 50-dma at 100. Now that the GSO has started to rebound above this level of support, it looks like the short-term downtrend may have come to an end. Sector behemoth MSFT is also above support at its converging 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This should help to put a floor under the software group. We're picking MERQ as a bullish sector play because of the way shares have pulled back to support at the 200-dma. The stock leveled out at this moving average after a rapid decline from the relative high of $35.68. The company's CEO commented this weekend that he expected the company's annual sales to grow to $1 billion over the next 3-5 years. By contrast, reported revenue for the first nine months of 2002 has ticked in at $282 million. While that bullish forecast hasn't led to any explosive upside movement, it seemed to effectively halt the two-week decline. Shares outperformed both the NASDAQ and GSO.X on Tuesday after successfully testing the 200-dma ($28.97). The daily stochastics, which are just beginning to reverse from oversold levels, offer technical encouragement for the bulls. With no significant levels of overhead resistance, we think MERQ could quickly reach the $35.00 area. Our action point to enter this play will be at $30.27, one cent above Friday's high. If we're triggered our stop will be placed at $28.48, slightly under today's low. This will set up a risk/reward ratio of better than 1:2. Traders willing to give MERQ a little more breathing room could use a stop just below $28.00. - Most recent update: December 13th, 2002 - Ouch! The entire market suddenly turned defensive on Friday as traders chose not to hold some positions over the weekend due to the higher geo-political risk. What does that mean in English? It means Wall Street is ready and willing to take some money off the table, we mean a whole lot of it, should the war in Iraq start soon or the North Koreans continue to thumb their noses at the U.S. over their nuclear plans. The NASDAQ fell as did the GSO software index. The later was probably due to the big drop in MSFT, the biggest software component of the group, which will lead the group and thus affect shares of MERQ. Shares of MSFT fell sharply and closed below both its 50-dma and the 200-dma. Why the drop? We don't know. We doubt it was the new Windows vulnerability warning that came out late Thursday night. More likely it could be the rumors that MSFT is interested and a potential buyer for Borland Software and Rational (RATL) software. Yup, the same RATL that IBM just agreed to buy a few days ago. What are the odds of IBM and MSFT getting in a bidding war? Does MSFT see IBM's move as serious competition? We can't answer these questions today but the drag on the sector was felt in MERQ with a 3.7% drop. Our play managed to maintain support at the $30 level but we would be hesitant to jump into new positions right now. Let's wait and see what happens over the weekend and how Wall Street opens on Monday. If shares begin to bounce, then evaluate a new position. - Play-of-the-Day Comments: December 16th, 2002 - As goes Microsoft, so goes the software group. That's not always the case, but more often than not the performance of Mr. Softee dictates which way the sector moves. On Friday MSFT was looking awfully weak after breaking below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The software index responded in kind, moving lower to retest short-term support near 103. MSFT recouped its losses on Monday, leading to a nice rebound for the GSO.X. Sector bulls can be pleased with the bounce from support and the 50-dma at 102.63. Staggered resistance at 108 and 110 might present a challenge, but generally today's gains are a positive sign for this long play. MERQ also pulled back to support at $30.00, which had previously acted as resistance. The subsequent rebound from this level, combined with the rising oscillators, paint a bullish technical picture. New entries can be targeted on a move above $32.00. This would open the door for a possible test of the multi-month highs near $35.50. Picked on December 11th at $30.27 Results since picked: +1.46 Earnings Date 10/17/02 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-16-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: High Risk/Reward Play Comments: IDPH Split Trader Stock Splits Split Announcements: FRX: 2-for-1 Split Announcement MNTR: 2-for-1 Split Announcement Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== Play Comments ------------- IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 33.93 change: +0.50 stop: *text* IDPH gave a nice intraday reversal today after bouncing from $32.00, while the bullish MACD crossover is a sign of technical strength. We're expecting similar volatility tomorrow. On Tuesday an FDA advistory panel will meet to discuss whether Bexxar, an experimental cancer drug by Corixa (CRXA) and Glaxosmithkline, is "safe and effective." This drug is widely seen as a rival to one of IDEC's drugs. Thus, an FDA approval of the CRXA drug will probably put some short-term selling pressure on IDPH. On the same token, a rejection would send IDPH lower. At this point its unclear when the FDA decision will be available. If it's out before the market then we're likely to see some gapping action in IDPH. A gap lower won't pose a problem because our entry trigger at $35.61 hasn't been reached. On the other hand, we don't want to chase IDPH if it get a large upward gap. With this in mind, we've placed a limit on our entry range: This play will not be activated if IDPH gaps above $36.00. We'll re-assess our strategy on Tuesday evening after the FDA decision is made public. ================================================================= Split Trader Stock Splits (ST) section ================================================================= Split Announcements ------------------- Forest Labs Sets 2-for-1 Stock Split After Strong Multi-month Rally Prior to the opening bell this morning, Forest Laboratories (NYSE: FRX) announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a 2-for- 1 stock split. The split will be payable on January 8, 2003, to shareholders of record on December 23, 2002. Today's announcement comes after a powerful uptrend that carried FRX from $70 to $110 in less than three months. On December 6th the stock gapped lower Forest Labs said approval of its drug pressure medication lercanidipine would be delayed for at least two years. FRX is currently trading near the top of the gap, with additional overhead resistance at the 50-dma near $100.00. Shares closed at $96.95 on Friday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=FRX About the company Forest Laboratories develops, manufactures, and sells ethical pharmaceutical products that are used for the treatment of a wide range of illnesses. Forest Laboratories' growing line of products includes: Lexapro(TM), indicated for the treatment of major depressive disorder; Celexa(TM), an antidepressant; Tiazac., a once-daily diltiazem, indicated for the treatment of angina and hypertension; Benicar(TM), an angiotensin receptor blocker indicated for the treatment of hypertension; and Aerobid., an inhaled steroid indicated for the treatment of asthma. (source: company press release) --- Mentor Corporation: 2-for-1 Stock Split Mentor Corporation (NASDAQ: MNTR) announced before the market opened this morning that its Board of Directors had declared a 2- for-1 stock split. The split will be payable to stockholders of record on December 31, 2002, with an expected distribution date of January 17, 2003. This represents the fifth split since Mentor stock began trading in 1970. MNTR has been trending higher ever since it bottomed out at $13.00 in the second half of 2000. Shares have nearly doubled from the 52-week low of $19.50 and recently pulled back to the ascending 50-dma at $38.55. MNTR closed at $38.65 on Friday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=MNTR About the company Mentor Corporation develops and manufactures specialized medical products, which it markets throughout the world. (source: company press release) ================= Trading Ideas ================= This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SBC SBC Communications 27.13 +1.38 FRE Freddie Mac 60.37 +0.90 FE FirstEnergy Corp 32.76 +0.76 DTE DTE Energy 46.20 +0.77 PRX Pharmaceutical Resources 28.48 +0.82 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change GRP Grant Prideco 12.33 +1.18 IMI Sanpaolo IMI 14.40 +1.31 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change WFT Weatherford Intl. 43.62 +1.72 HSP Hispanic Broadcasting 23.02 +1.42 PIXR Pixar 61.42 +1.39 BSTE Biosite Inc 33.80 +2.39 BCS Barclays ADR 25.70 +2.10 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change
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