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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 01/03/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 01-03-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2002, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Let The Trend Begin
Play-of-the-Day:  Chain Reaction
Watch List:       AMZN, AU, BRL, CSCO, RKY, WLP, and lots more!
Market Sentiment: Hanging On

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 01-03        WE 12-27        WE 12-20        WE 12-15
DOW     8601.69 +297.91 8303.78 -208.22 8512.01 + 78.16 -211.92
Nasdaq  1387.08 + 38.62 1348.46 - 14.59 1363.05 +  0.63 - 60.02
S&P-100  459.20 + 16.14  443.06 - 12.40  455.46 +  3.65 - 12.61
S&P-500  908.59 + 33.17  875.42 - 20.34  895.76 +  6.28 - 22.75
W5000   8593.22 +287.59 8305.63 -169.60 8475.23 + 48.97 -202.90
RUT      390.31 +  6.15  384.16 -  2.72  386.88 -  1.10 -  8.74
TRAN    2364.94 + 73.28 2291.66 - 32.56 2324.22 +  5.75 - 70.34
VIX       27.98 -  6.17   34.15 +  2.68   31.47 -  0.65 -  0.56
VXN       45.71 -  1.00   46.71 -  1.80   48.51 -  2.41 -  1.36
TRIN       1.32            3.60            0.66            1.34
Put/Call   0.76            0.94            0.88            0.87
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Let The Trend Begin
by Jim Brown

Fortunately Friday was a disposable day because nothing happened.
Trading was in a very narrow range trapped between bullishness
and profit taking. The eventual draw with the Dow and Nasdaq both
closing within six points of zero was on very low volume. No real
conclusions about market direction should be drawn from the
lackluster results. Monday, however will be a different story.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Economically Friday was also slow with Construction Spending the
only material news. November spending rose +0.3%, which was less
than the +0.4% analysts had expected. This was substantially less
than the +1.0% from October. It was the third consecutive month
that spending increased but it is increasing very slowly. The
residential construction component rose +0.9% in November and
was the largest component increase. Nonresidential spending is
still very weak.

Another weak indicator was the ECRI Weekly Leading Index. This
index fell to 117.6 and for the first time since Nov-15th it was
under 118. The index had been flat for five weeks and this down
turn could be an indication that the recovery is weakening. New
mortgage applications fell by -8%. Initial jobless claims grew
with the four week average now well over 400,000. With the six
month growth rate falling again it could be pointing to another
recessionary dip in the 1Q.

The automakers posted both good and bad news today. GM had its
best December since 1979 with a +36% increase in sales. Ford
posted a +8% increase and DCX +1% overall and +13% for SUVs.
That was the good news. The bad news was the consumer addiction
to incentives. The incentive war that began after 9/11 has
produced a consumer that is demanding more and stronger reasons
why they should buy another expensive new car. The automakers
are stuck. If they terminate the incentives sales will plummet.
If they continue the incentives they lose profits and add to
the current addiction cycle. Despite the positive sales reports
the majors all finished in negative territory as investors
decided there was more trouble ahead.

The earnings warning from Home Depot rattled the home products
sector with HD losing -3.50 and LOW dropping -2.43. While that
was traumatic to holders of those stocks it was a dose of reality
that all investors did not want to hear. Slowing home improvement
sales along with slowing mortgage applications means that the
consumer may have completed the cocooning phase and is ready to
sit out the next economic cycle.

Many of those sitting out the next cycle could be doing so without
jobs. The unemployment rate is rising and mass layoff rates are
increasing but it appears the government does not want you to
know it. While the flag waving for the economy is in full swing
the reporting of mass layoffs has been stopped. Could it be that
the administration is trying to restrict information that could
be contrary to the party line? I am not going to try and paint
a conspiracy here but the funding for the mass layoff report was
terminated and the November report will be the last one. A
reader forwarded me this link from the San Francisco Chronicle:
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/01/03/MN120712.DTL

There was another profit warning on Friday that drew my interest.
Radio Shack (RSH) warned that slower sales and lower margins on
cell phones and other key products would impact results. The
keyword here is cell phones. This has been a key product in the
minimal chip sector growth and a key growth sector for the last
couple years. Bigger, better, faster phones were literally
jumping off shelves if we believe the hype. The majority of the
Radio Shack problem came from slowing sales of the Sprint PCS
phones. Those fully featured, Internet capable models hyped on
TV with the stenciled words on phone users foreheads. There are
concerns that inventories of cell phones could be backing up
in the sales channel and we could be seeing another round of
warnings from phone makers ahead.

Want another indication things are tough in retail? McDonalds
scrapped plans for a major networking initiative to network all
its restaurants, headquarters and vendors. The plan called
"Innovate" was scrapped in order to focus on near term benefits
and store operations. Are you ready for this? There was a rumor
after the close that they were going to rent DVDs to customers
through a joint venture similar to NetFlix for 99 cents a day
to improve customer traffic. No kidding. Evidently the
Blockbuster profit warning did not make it through the network
to McDonalds management.

After the close on Friday it was announced that Merrill Lynch
analyst Henry Blodget was about to be charged for bogus calls
on Internet stocks. Blodget was notified by the NASD that they
were going to issue a Wells Notice, which gives him a chance to
contest the charges before they are filed. The complaint was
that he skewed his research to help win investment banking
business for his firm. Get your checkbook out Henry.

The key question for investors this weekend is what does the
future hold? The debate over direction could take months but
the market tends to pick its own direction regardless of how
many analysts agree. There is almost a unanimous agreement
that there will be an economic recovery in the 2H of 2003 and
the market will gain between 17% and 22% by year end. (9750-
10200) Corporate earnings are expected to increase by +15% to
+17% in 2003. Unfortunately this is exactly what the same
analysts expected last year. In fact the majority of analysts
are almost always WRONG. The amount of bullishness or bearishness
is almost an exact opposite of the actual market results. As
I reported last week only three analysts of the 65 surveyed
by Business week expect the Dow to close below 8500 for 2003.

The rationale for a rebound is strong. The Fed is in overdrive
and printing money at a blistering pace. The president will
announce even more fiscal stimulus next week to apply even
more juice to the economy. There is a pent up tech replacement
cycle just waiting to explode. The economy is about to emerge
from its soft patch. Corporate profits are expected to be +12%
in 4Q-2002 alone. Productivity is soaring. The economy is
awash in liquidity, war is good for the economy and the third
year of a presidents term is always bullish. Shucks, let's
all buy calls. NOT! Does anybody see the problem with this
scenario? It is predicated on the perfect outcome. In fact
all this bullishness may already be priced into the market.

The problems are numerous. The war is not a given. I think
the possibility of a long, messy and globally unpopular
engagement is strong. When troops start coming home in body
bags the war sentiment could evaporate in an instant. With
no weapons of mass destruction yet found it appears Saddam
has prepared well and the Jan-27th U.N. meeting could be a
challenge for the U.S. If Bush elects to force the issue it
could get ugly. Even dragging the start of the war out by a
couple months will depress the markets farther because of
the negative ramifications.

The Fed is printing money 24/7 to "reflate" the economy. They
may reflate the economy but kill the dollar in the world markets.
That would bring us full circle and back to a weak economy
again. A weak dollar means a strong Euro and problems for
our trading partners around the world. Should the economy
actually begin to spark the Fed is already poised to raise
rates again. We are in that precarious point where the Fed
is holding down the throttle of the economy as it gains
speed towards the next peak. However, it has to be alert
for that approaching peak and reduce speed in just the
right increments to insure we don't lose momentum and slide
backwards or hit the top too fast and race off the cliff
on the other side. When that first rate hike occurs the
housing market will screech to a halt and with it the
feeder sectors of building materials and home furnishings.

While analysts tell us that the U.S. economy is beginning
to improve they also tell us that Europe and Japan are
beginning to weaken. Along with the consumer we have
depended on Europe and Asia to buy our products and keep
our factories rolling. If those countries are now sagging
then the purchases from the U.S. could slow just as the
U.S. started to move again. This could be another blow to
the potential recovery.

Corporate and consumer debt is at an all time high with
foreclosures at a 30 year high and auto repossessions soaring.
The consumer has been the backbone of the economy but with
rising unemployment we saw the weakness start to appear
with the holiday shopping. The Home Depot news is just
another clue that things are not rosy. The oil crisis is
adding a monthly $7 billion tax on the consumer for every
$1 over $25 a barrel. Oil soared to a two year high of
$33.08 on Friday. Venezuela is spiraling downward and is
threatening to destabilize adjoining countries. It could
be months before oil begins to flow again.

If the inspectors do not find the weapons in Iraq and the
U.S. decides to attack anyway or force the issue with the
U.N. it is entirely possible that oil shipments will slow
from the OPEC members friendly to Saddam. There is huge
uncertainty brewing with the Iraq situation and the outcome
and timetable is far from clear.

Bush will announce his stimulus package on Tuesday but the
details have already been floated. Guess what? The stimulus
is already priced into the market. Once the November election
was decided the markets roared off from the November low of
8300 to the December 2nd high of 9043. That nearly +10% gain
was the accelerated tax cuts, the change in taxes on dividends
and a favorable policy towards business and health care being
priced in.

Everything hinges on the technology replacement cycle or
so we keep hearing. Unfortunately as long as employers keep
cutting employees they don't need to upgrade. The good
equipment is claimed by the surviving employees and the
old stuff is retired. There is another problem with the cycle
and that is the selective upgrade process I spoke about earlier
this week. Small purchase orders, minimum quantities and no
rush to get it done. There is also the price problem. There
is so much capacity in the system that prices are minimal.
I upgraded a 300 MHZ, 256MB Pentium-II this week to a 2.0GHZ,
1GB P4 for $346 including shipping. I paid nearly $2,000 for
the original PII. The PC is more of a commodity today than
ever and nobody is going to get rich selling them. Where
are the tech profits going to come from? The Internet has
leveled the playing field so completely that the giants are
stuck competing with the ThreeStoogesPCSales.com's of the
world. When a P4 is a P4 regardless of who you buy from
there is no reason to pay double or triple from Dell.

Productivity is soaring. Yes, it has to because corporations
are laying off more people to cut costs and produce those
all important earnings gains. The problem with this picture
is that the earnings gains are not repeatable. Not unless
you cut more people each quarter. Until companies actually
begin spending more money on goods and services there will
not be any real earnings gains. The Goldman Sachs survey
this week predicted a drop in spending for 2003 not a gain.
This means the expectations for +15% to +17% gain in
corporate profits could be just smoke, again.

Almost everyone agrees that the economy hit a wall in the
4Q-2002 and the 3Q recovery stalled. The Fed reacted sharply
but earnings estimates for the 4Q are still at the inflated
3Q estimates of +11%. Several (bearish) analysts are predicting
they will actually come in at 7% to 9%. If so this will start
another wave of downgrades for 2003 and stock prices will
fall with them.

This is a real challenge for investors. 98% of analysts are
predicting a major gain for the markets in 2003. It could
happen. If the stars line up correctly and all the events
fall into place just right, it could happen. Unfortunately
the markets are already priced for perfection. Unless
perfection happens we could be in for trouble. I have
trouble with this analysis. I want to be bullish for 2003.
I want to cling to the fact that there have not been four
down years since 1929-1932 in the Dow. I want to cling to
the fact that since 1939 the 3rd year of a presidential
term has been bullish. I want to believe that Abbey Cohen's
prediction of 10,800 Dow close for 2003 is possible. The
problem is what do I base it on?

If I base it on fundamentals I lose because there are none.
Every indicator of corporate profits keeps shrinking.
Even Abbey is only expecting an 8% growth in profits for
all of 2003. I want to base it on technical analysis but
the charts do not support it. If I depend on the charts
completely I could easily see a retest of prior lows with
a rebound back to 9000 by year end. That would be a +25%
rebound but only a +8% gain for the year. However, it
could be the start of an uptrend and a bullish 3rd year
of the presidents term. Yes, statistics have a strange
way of asserting themselves.

Since I have no divine insight into the real fate of the
markets over the next year I have reached my own conclusion.
There will be a lot of volatility as bulls and bears do
battle. I don't know which side will win but I am focused
on being a capitalist and making money regardless of
direction. Weapons manufacturers don't pick sides in war,
they just sell weapons. My New Years resolution is to not
choose sides. Trade in the direction of the trend and hope
for big moves. 2003 will be a stock pickers market but if
you only play the upside you could miss half the fun.

We are kicking off 2003 with our own version of predict
the Dow. We are going to give away a total of $2003 to the
three readers who come closest to the Dow close for 2003.
Grab a chart and polish up that crystal ball then click below.
http://www.optioninvestor.com/game/dow2003/dowtarget.asp
The deadline for entries is 9:AM ET on Monday.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown

"The safest way to double your money is to fold over once
and put it in your pocket." - Kin Hubbard


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
((new tech play))

QUALCOMM Inc - QCOM - close: 35.70 change: -1.44 stop: *text*

Company Description:
QUALCOMM Incorporated is a leader in developing and delivering
innovative digital wireless communications products and services
based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
In our heavily integrated economy, one company's misfortune can
set off a chain reaction that sends several other stocks lower.
Case in point - Niche retailer RadioShack (RSH) announced an
earnings warning today.  The company lowered its fourth-quarter
EPS forecast from $0.63-$0.68 to $0.58-$0.60, citing weak sales
of Sprint PCS cell phones and service contracts as one of the
primary reasons for the revision.  RSH took the news in stride;
the stock actually finished in the green.  Such was not the case
with PCS.  The wireless carrier derives a significant chunk of
its business from sales at Radioshack, and its stock was hammered
for an 8.7% loss.  The evidence of weakening demand for cell
phones also pressured shares of QCOM.  Qualcomm, who makes the
chips that power most Sprint PCS devices, stands to see a very
real impact on its bottom line as a result of the poor Radioshack
sales.  This news couldn't have come at a worse time.  The stock
has already been pressured by news that China may adopt its own
cell phone technology by 2004.  The country is developing a
wireless standard that will directly compete with Qualcomm's CDMA
technology.  To make matters worse, the highly intrusive and
quasi-Communist government in Beijing could actually mandate that
it's own standard be adopted, thereby eliminating a tantalizing
growth market for QCOM.

So perhaps it's not all that surprising to see that the company's
stock is in a severe rut.  QCOM has been moving in a southward
direction ever since it topped out near $43 at the beginning of
December.  Shares pegged a new relative low today and finished
with a 3.8% loss.  Signs of weakness were already appearing on
Thursday.  Two of the leading sectors during the explosive tech
rally were the semiconductor and wireless groups (represented by
the SOX.X and YLS.X, respectively).  QCOM makes semiconductors
for wireless devices.  Sounds like a combination for some robust
gains, doesn't it?!  The stock instead managed a paltry gain of
only 2.0%.  With QCOM trading well above any underlying support
levels, it looks like the current downtrend could remain intact
in the weeks to come.  For the purposes of this play we will
target a decline to the $30.00 region.  Traders who watch QCOM
will recall that this area provided solid resistance throughout
the summer.  Our path to profits is blocked by two potential
obstacles - The November lows near $33.00 and the 200-dma at
$32.22.  Shorter-term or conservative traders may want to target
a move to the latter level, which is more likely to offer
support.  We believe that the recent bearish news stories,
combined with a deteriorating technical picture (a trade at
$35.00 would trigger a double-bottom breakdown) will be enough to
send QCOM below moving average support.  But in order to ensure
that the stock is trading at new lows before we enter this paper
trade, we're placing an action trigger at $35.38.  If the play is
triggered our stop will be set at $38.06, slightly over the 50-
dma.  Those not willing to take as much heat could use a stop
just above Thursday's high of $37.17.

Picked on January xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          02/06/03 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 20.52 change: +0.95

WHAT TO WATCH: Amazon traded like a champ in the latter half of
2002 but stumbled during the last few days of December.  This
sell-off took AMZN below both the 50-dma ($21.20) and previous
resistance at $20.00.  It wasn't until shares reached the rising
100-dma at $18.83 that the bears finally relented.  The location
of this moving average also happens to coincide with the
October/November area of congestion.  Things got better for
shareholders over the past few sessions, when AMZN bounced back
and reclaimed the $20.00 level.  With the oscillators looking
bullish and the p-n-f chart showing a three-box reversal, it
looks like the stock could have enough upward momentum to reach
$22.00.  Short-term traders can evaluate long entries on a
pullback to $20.00.  Be aware of possible resistance at the 50-
dma ($21.20).




---

Anglogold - AU - close: 30.12 change: +0.42

WHAT TO WATCH: Growing uncertainty in various "hot spots" around
the globe (Iraq, Venezuela, and North Korea) has helped to push
the XAU.X gold/silver index to multi-month highs.  Recent
weakness in the U.S. Dollar (DX00Y) has also prompted a lot of
major investors to shift money into gold.  Yesterday's action in
the XAU was especially interesting.  Typically, strong broader
market rallies create sector rotation out of the defensive
precious metal sector.  But that wasn't the case - the XAU.X
actually finished with a small gain.  That's a bullish sign for
gold.  AU looks like a good long play within the group because
it's just broken to multi-year highs after slicing through
resistance in the $34-$35 area.  Long entries can be targeted on
a move above the 1999 high at $36.62.




---

Barr Labs - BRL - close: 67.79 change: +0.86

WHAT TO WATCH: The DRG.X pharmaceutical index turned in an
impressive week - adding 6.1% and easily outperforming the Dow
Jones.  This sector bullishness helped BRL to power above the
$67.00 resistance level on Friday.  The lack of overhead
resistance suggests to us that shares might be able to clear the
$70.00 mark and rally up to the August highs near $72.00.  Long
entries could be targeted on a move above today's high of $68.04.




---

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 13.91 change: +0.27

WHAT TO WATCH: A pair of negative brokerage comments late this
week did little to dampen the bullish enthusiasm in CSCO.  On
Tuesday UBS Warburg cut its estimates for the company, citing a
weaker-than-expected U.S. enterprise market.  The firm's comments
were lost in the din of the explosive broader market rally, and
CSCO rallied through its 50-dma.  Today it was Piper Jaffray who
trimmed their estimates on Cisco, citing a challenging IT
environment.  Investors responded with complete obliviousness and
pushed CSCO above its 200-dma at $13.91.  These gains, combined
with the rising oscillators (particularly the MACD, which is on
the brink of a bullish crossover), paint a sunny technical
picture.  The challenge that potential bullish traders are facing
now is the relatively small amount of upside - CSCO has a lot of
resistance in the $15.00-$15.50 area.  However, traders with a
short-term timeframe could think about going long on a move above
$14.00.  Downside risk could be limited with a stop slightly
below the 200-dma.




---

Citrix Systems - CTXS - close: 13.56 change: +0.56

WHAT TO WATCH: CTXS has been under heavy accumulation since mid-
October, when it began to rise from the $6.00 region.  Shares
doubled in value over the following six weeks before trading in
the $12-$14 range for most of December.  The New Year has gotten
off to a bullish start, with shares rallying from $12.00 and
moving back towards the multi-month highs.  The rising MACD and
daily stochastics (5,3,3) indicate that a breakout could be
forthcoming.  Watch for a move above $14.00 to clear the way for
a possible rally to the $15.50-$16.00 area.




---

Phillip Morris - MO - close: 39.80 change: -0.55

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding Big MO as a short
play tonight.  The stock is looking very weak after rolling over
from resistance at $42.00.  This level also happens to be the
location of the 38% retracement bracket from the August highs to
October lows.  Shares showed disconcerting relative weakness on
Thursday when they posted a small loss, in spite of a super-sized
rally in the Dow Jones.  MO continued to decline today and pegged
a new short-term low on the strongest volume in over a week.
Although the daily stochastics are already approaching the lower
band, the recent bearish MACD crossover suggests that MO could
soon test support at $37.00.  Short-term entries with a favorable
risk/reward ratio could be gauged at current levels, with a stop
just above $41.00.  We ultimately passed on a bearish play
because we aren't willing to give MO such a short leash.




---

Adolph Coors - RKY - close: 61.16 change: -0.71

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of RKY followed the Dow to some steep gains
on Thursday morning.  This rally, however, fizzled out at the
200-dma ($63.10), and the stock closed well off its best levels
of the session.  Investors punished this lackluster performance
on Friday by hitting RKY for a 1.1% loss.  In light of the failed
rally and faltering daily stochastics (5,3,3), we think the stock
may soon move back to critical support at $60.00.  This level
consistently put a floor under RKY in late-December.  It's also
the location of bullish support on the p-n-f chart.  Should this
level fail, we'd be looking for shares to retest the September
lows near $56.00.  Watch for a move under the relative low of
$59.89 to provide a potential bearish action point.




---

Wellpoint Health Ntwk. - WLP - close: 73.65 change: +1.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Sector weakness and negative brokerage comments
sent WLP tumbling to a low of $62.00 in late-November.  The stock
has since done a nice job of recovering its losses.  Today's
action saw the stock gap above its 50-dma ($72.61) after
Wellpoint reaffirmed its Q4 EPS guidance of $5.10.  Shares showed
good relative strength throughout the session but weren't able to
crack the 200-dma at $73.82.  A break through this moving average
could send WLP towards the late-November highs near $78.00.





------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

AOC - It's a relatively slow mover, but this insurance stock is
picking up some steam.  Today's breakout above $20.00 has raised
the possibility that shares could rally to the next level of
resistance at $22.00.  The p-n-f chart is showing a fresh double-
top buy signal.

DJ - Dow Jones (the publishing company, not the index) is in the
midst of a multi-month uptrend.  Shares are slowly moving towards
resistance at $45.00, which is backed by the descending 200-dma
at $45.25.  If DJ can move above this moving average, the bulls
may have a clear shot at the $50.00 level.

ERTS - Shares of ERTS are clawing their way back after a
monstrous sell-off from the $69.00 area.  The stock gained 4.4%
today and moved to a new short-term high.  Now that it's
retracing the steep December losses and the MACD is curling
higher, ERTS might offer a bullish trade at current levels.  We'd
be looking to capture a move to the $60-$62 region.

PNW - This utility stock has been gradually stair-stepping its
way higher for several weeks.  Today's breakout above the 200-dma
near $35.00 bodes well for an eventual rally to the $40.00 area.
The p-n-f chart shows bearish resistance at $38.00.

PVN - Providian continues to march higher.  Shares are trading at
levels not seen since June, and there isn't any substantial
resistance until the $8.00 region.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Hanging On
By Steven Price

We finished out a wild week with a whimper. While the intraday
action had its usual extreme moves, we ended close to unchanged
in most of the major indices.   In fact, none of the major
indices closed more than two tenths of a percent away from
Thursday's finish. After such a big rally to start the year on
Thursday, it may simply be that those traders looking to get into
positions to start the year got it out of the way on the first
trading day of 2003.  In spite of economic data that showed
construction spending in November slightly higher than expected,
the Dow and SPX finished slightly in the red.  That was likely
due to a couple of factors, with a downward revision of the
October construction spending data offsetting some of the
November gains, and a warning from Home Depot for both the fourth
quarter and the full year 2003.

Much has been made of the holiday retail blues, with many stores
missing expectations or coming in at the low end of previous
guidance. Today the retailers got some more bad news that bled
into the hard line retail sector, which is not as heavily
dependent on the holiday season as main line retailers. Home
Depot warned after the bell last night that it would miss
consensus earnings estimates for 2003.  The company said
"business trends indicate the likelihood of a challenging
environment well into the next fiscal year," and also said that a
poor December sales of power tools and hardware could result in a
same store sales decline of 10% in the fiscal fourth quarter,
ending in February.  The news was disappointing on a couple of
fronts.  First, the obvious effect on the retail sector was
negative, with the Retail Index (RLX) giving up all of Thursday's
gain and more, with a loss of 4%.  However, the bigger issue may
be a lack of spending on home improvement.  Until now, the one
pocket of strength in the economy has been in the home re-
financing and new mortgage area, since interest rates are so low.
If consumers aren't shopping at Home Depot, they probably aren't
improving their homes at the same clip they have been over the
past couple of years, and therefore the one area that was seeing
the direct benefits of low rates may not be doing so anymore. On
the plus side for the markets, investors shook off the scare and
turned almost half of the Dow stocks green, with a 13 up/17 down
split.

The other retail warning came from Radio Shack, which guided
lower partially due to lower sales and gross margins on Sprint
PCS products. Interestingly, wireless chips have been one of the
strongest areas of semiconductor sales and the news from Radio
Shack seemed to have little effect on the Semiconductor Index
(SOX).  The SOX gained almost 2% and broke through significant
resistance at the 310 level.  It set an intraday high of 315,
where it failed on its afternoon rebound attempt, but also found
support at the 310 level on its afternoon pullback.  If that
previous level of support/resistance is now acting as support
again, then we could see another run to 330.

If a consumer-spending scare from the Home Depot and Radio Shack
warnings doesn't spook the markets, what will?  Most likely the
beginning of a war with Iraq would send us lower, but that
possibility has been factored in for so long that a quick end to
the conflict might actually give us a boost. I am not necessarily
predicting a continued breakout to new highs, considering the
strong downtrend we were in before Thursday's rally, but the
resilience we saw today after a big profit warning is a red flag
for shorts. We are entering earnings season once again and given
the slew of disappointing retail sales numbers during the holiday
season we may be getting more earnings warnings in the next few
weeks.  Just how much has already been priced in will be the
question.

Today's action after Thursday's big rally can be seen with a two-
sided mirror.  Bears will point out the failed rally at previous
resistance, as well as the 50% retracement of the recent drop
that the Dow, SPX and OEX all tested unsuccessfully this morning.
Bulls can point to the afternoon bounce from Dow 8550 and close
back above 8600 as a higher level of support after the big rally
Thursday. If the bulls are right, then we'll have to see a
continued push over the day's high of 911 in the SPX, as well.
That is the precise point where it ran out of steam on the last
bounce in mid-December, so it is probably not a coincidence that
it is the rally failure point again this time. If the bulls can
overwhelm the bears on the next trip to that level, we may
finally see a move back to the Dow 8800/SPX 925 levels from the
beginning of November.  Failure from that point would form a nice
right shoulder in a bearish head and shoulders pattern, with a
target between Dow 7700 and 7800.  Of course, that's getting a
little ahead of ourselves, but planning in advance never hurts.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8601

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8442
 50-dma: 8550
200-dma: 8974

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  908

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  890
 50-dma:  902
200-dma:  955

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1031

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1012
 50-dma: 1035
200-dma: 1072
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Retail Index (RLX):  Home Depot issued a warning for Q4 and 2003,
following weak December sales of power tools and hardware, while
Radio Shack warned due to slow sales of Sprint PCS products.  The
warnings bled through the sector, affecting broad based retailers
such as Wal-Mart and Target, both of which lost over 3% and
successfully tested support levels at $50 and $30 respectively.
The RLX dropped 4%, giving up all of Thursday's gain and then
some.  It appears headed back to a support test at 260, which
served as a bounce point the last several days of December.  Wal-
Mart can be used as a gauge for the sector and a close back below
$50 would put the stock back into its descending channel.  Even
clothing retailers, such as KSS, FD and ROST felt the blow, as we
approach the upcoming retail earnings season. Today's news
reminded investors that the weak December could affect previous
earnings estimates and we can most likely expect similar warnings
from other retailers in the next couple of weeks.

52-week High: n/a
52-week Low : 244
Current     : 264

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 266
 50-dma: 280
200-dma: 307
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX ended the day on the downside, further extending its drop
below recent lows.  Those who view this as a contra-indicator to
the market will see the oversold level as predicting a soon to
come equity sell-off.  If those traders are right, it could come
soon as the VIX approaches its next support level of 26.41, which
is the recent low from late November.  For those traders who see
a sinking VIX as a sign of institutional premium selling and a
lack of downside fear, then a break below 26 would indicate a
continued rally after the big bounce on Thursday. Traders should
note that Friday's always see some artificial selling, as weekend
time decay entices premium sellers to take on more risk with
short positions, or get out of some longs to avoid a loss.


CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 27.98 -0.54
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 45.71 -1.34
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.76        377,633       288,864
Equity Only    0.62        287,153       200,274
OEX            0.94         14,655        13,829
QQQ            4.22          6,061        25,596
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          50      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    59      + 0     Bear Alert
Dow Indust.   50      + 0     Bear Alert
S&P 500       59      + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       54      - 1     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.40
10-Day Arms Index  1.42
21-Day Arms Index  1.39
55-Day Arms Index  1.23


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1456          1360
NASDAQ     1481          1627

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE         68              19
NASDAQ       77              15

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,346
NASDAQ     1,127
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 12/23/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov <http://www.cftc.gov>.

Small specs are the general trading public with
commercials being financial institutions.
Commercials are historically on the correct side of
future trend changes while small specs tend to be
wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials reduced both sides of their positions, shaving 57,000
contracts off the long side and 61,000 contracts off the short
side.  Small traders also reduced significantly, with long
positions losing 56,000 contracts and short positions dropping by
32,000.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
12/03/02      444,345   487,411   (43,066)   (4.6%)
12/10/02      446,831   503,583   (56,752)   (5.9%)
12/17/02      465,361   528,896   (63,535)   (6.4%)
12/23/02      408,592   467,259   (58,667)   (6.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/03/02      162,192    82,584    79,608     32.5%
12/10/02      162,115    71,505    90,610     38.8%
12/17/02      194,740    90,803   103,937     36.4%
12/23/02      138,756    58,236    80,520     40.9%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced long positions by 20,000 contracts and shorts
by 10,000.  Small traders, on the other hand, got longer,
reducing the long side by 6,000 contracts, while closing 12,000
on the short side.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/03/02       43,709     51,977   ( 8,268) ( 8.6%)
12/10/02       44,651     51,716   ( 7,065) ( 7.3%)
12/17/02       51,999     54,383   ( 2,384) ( 2.2%)
12/23/02       32,067     44,451   (12,384) (16.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
12/03/02       13,749     9,869     3,880    16.4%
12/10/02       15,026     9,242     5,784    23.8%
12/17/02       23,027    18,027     5,000    12.2%
12/23/02       17,009     5,865    11,144

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  11,144  - 12/23/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced both long and short positions by about 9,000
contracts, Small traders got slightly longer, losing 900 long
contracts and 3,000 shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/03/02       20,176    15,427    4,749      13.3%
12/10/02       19,953    15,759    4,194      11.7%
12/17/02       23,782    20,605    3,177       7.2%
12/23/02       14,991    11,103    3,888      14.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
12/03/02        5,885     9,781    (3,896)   (24.9%)
12/10/02        5,394     9,499    (4,105)   (27.6%)
12/17/02        5,498     9,045    (3,547)   (24.4%)
12/23/02        4,584     6,296    (1,712)   (15.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 01-03-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     QCOM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  BSX, SYK
  Bearish Play Updates:  DLX

High Risk/Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  CEPH

Split Trader / Stock Splits
  Bullish Play Updates:  FRX
  Split Announcements:
                         PVTB: 3-for-2 split announcement



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

QUALCOMM Inc - QCOM - close: 35.70 change: -1.44 stop: *text*

Company Description:
QUALCOMM Incorporated is a leader in developing and delivering
innovative digital wireless communications products and services
based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
In our heavily integrated economy, one company's misfortune can
set off a chain reaction that sends several other stocks lower.
Case in point - Niche retailer RadioShack (RSH) announced an
earnings warning today.  The company lowered its fourth-quarter
EPS forecast from $0.63-$0.68 to $0.58-$0.60, citing weak sales
of Sprint PCS cell phones and service contracts as one of the
primary reasons for the revision.  RSH took the news in stride;
the stock actually finished in the green.  Such was not the case
with PCS.  The wireless carrier derives a significant chunk of
its business from sales at Radioshack, and its stock was hammered
for an 8.7% loss.  The evidence of weakening demand for cell
phones also pressured shares of QCOM.  Qualcomm, who makes the
chips that power most Sprint PCS devices, stands to see a very
real impact on its bottom line as a result of the poor Radioshack
sales.  This news couldn't have come at a worse time.  The stock
has already been pressured by news that China may adopt its own
cell phone technology by 2004.  The country is developing a
wireless standard that will directly compete with Qualcomm's CDMA
technology.  To make matters worse, the highly intrusive and
quasi-Communist government in Beijing could actually mandate that
it's own standard be adopted, thereby eliminating a tantalizing
growth market for QCOM.

So perhaps it's not all that surprising to see that the company's
stock is in a severe rut.  QCOM has been moving in a southward
direction ever since it topped out near $43 at the beginning of
December.  Shares pegged a new relative low today and finished
with a 3.8% loss.  Signs of weakness were already appearing on
Thursday.  Two of the leading sectors during the explosive tech
rally were the semiconductor and wireless groups (represented by
the SOX.X and YLS.X, respectively).  QCOM makes semiconductors
for wireless devices.  Sounds like a combination for some robust
gains, doesn't it?!  The stock instead managed a paltry gain of
only 2.0%.  With QCOM trading well above any underlying support
levels, it looks like the current downtrend could remain intact
in the weeks to come.  For the purposes of this play we will
target a decline to the $30.00 region.  Traders who watch QCOM
will recall that this area provided solid resistance throughout
the summer.  Our path to profits is blocked by two potential
obstacles - The November lows near $33.00 and the 200-dma at
$32.22.  Shorter-term or conservative traders may want to target
a move to the latter level, which is more likely to offer
support.  We believe that the recent bearish news stories,
combined with a deteriorating technical picture (a trade at
$35.00 would trigger a double-bottom breakdown) will be enough to
send QCOM below moving average support.  But in order to ensure
that the stock is trading at new lows before we enter this paper
trade, we're placing an action trigger at $35.38.  If the play is
triggered our stop will be set at $38.06, slightly over the 50-
dma.  Those not willing to take as much heat could use a stop
just above Thursday's high of $37.17.

Picked on January xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date          02/06/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Boston Scientific - BSX - close: 42.99 change: +0.47 stop: 40.99

The drug-coated stent market has been narrowed to just two
players: Boston Scientific and Johnson & Johnson.  Guidant (GDT),
already reeling from a negative court decision in October, was
dealt another blow on Thursday night when the company said that a
clinical trial of privately-held Cook Group's stent had failed to
yield desired results.  This prompted GDT to cancel its plans to
acquire Cook, effectively delaying the release of its drug-coated
stent until at least 2005.  BSX and JNJ will now be able to duke
it out without having to worry about a sudden resurgence from
Guidant.  While today's news didn't come as a huge surprise,
investors nonetheless responded by bidding BSX higher by 1.8%.
The stock is now within striking distance of its multi-year high
at $44.30.  This is a very encouraging development.  Shares have
successfully tested support at $42.00, and the recent reversal
has the oscillators moving higher once again.  Bulls can also be
pleased with the steadily increasing volume.  Going forward,
we'll be watching for a breakout to take BSX to the $47-$50
region.  New entries can be targeted on a move above $44.30.

Picked on December 20th at $44.01
Results since picked:       -1.02
Earnings Date            10/22/02 (confirmed)




---

Stryker Corp - SYK - close: 68.68 change: +0.66 stop: 65.43

It took a mere two minutes for this long play to be activated.
SYK gapped slightly higher this morning and quickly reached our
entry trigger at $68.26.  Shares set an all-time high of $69.00
before trading in a narrow 50-cent range for the remainder of the
trading session.  Stryker also showed relative strength by
outperforming the flat Dow Jones.  Looking at the daily chart,
it's hard not to be bullish on this stock.  SYK is trading in
blue-sky territory and seems to be headed for a test of
psychological resistance at $70.00.  It's also interesting to
note how the stock behaved today, following the previous
session's breakout to all-time highs.  The past two all-time
highs (set on November 7th and November 21st) were quickly met
with selling.  That does not appear to be the case with the
current breakout.  With volume remaining relatively strong
(compared to the past month's volume), we think the odds of a
sustainable rally are high.  New entries can be gauged on a move
above $69.00 or on a pullback to $68.00.  Our stop is set at
$65.43.

Picked on January 3rd at $68.26
Results since picked:     +0.42
Earnings Date          10/16/02 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Deluxe Corp. - DLX - close: 41.83 change: -0.23 stop: 42.56

Consolidation has been the name of the game for DLX.  Thursday's
session saw the stock trade an Inside Day after it failed to
approach the relative high of $42.24.  Another lower high was
traced today after the stock rolled over from $42.00.  In keeping
with the recent pattern, DLX traded in a narrow range for most of
the session after seeing most of its movement early in the day.
Even though we haven't yet seen a wholesale breakdown, the
inability of DLX to hold on to its intraday gains is a positive
sign for this play.  Next week we'll be watching for shares to
break out of the sideways range and move back towards support at
$40.00.  For an interesting technical exercise, try slapping a
retracement bracket on DLX, from the October high to the December
low.  We're seeing some interesting correlations there, with
shares first finding resistance at the 38% retracement ($43.86)
in November/December.  Now the 19% retracement near $42.00 seems
to be providing resistance.  While this might all be a simple
coincidence, it's also possible that the market makers may be
using these levels to manage risk.  If this is actually the case,
a rollover from the $42.00 area could prompt a heavy sell-off
that takes DLX below $40.00.

Picked on December 4th at $41.28
Results since picked:      -0.55
Earnings Date           10/17/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cephalon Inc - CEPH - close: 49.57 change: -0.20 stop: 52.64

Last night we discussed Cephalon's two overhead resistance levels:
 $50.00 and the 200-dma at $50.26.  The bears were
seemingly on the defensive today when CEPH made two separate
jaunts above these obstacles.  Both rallies came in tandem with
intraday bounces in the broader market.  But just as it looked as
though the bulls might run away with the ball during the second
rally, an afternoon sell-off dragged the stock back into negative
territory.  Shares faded the NASDAQ during the final hour of
trading and finished with a 20-cent loss.  So basically, we're
looking at a bearish intraday reversal on the daily chart.  The
inability of CEPH to hold above resistance is a positive sign for
this play.  However, we're going to need to see some heavier
selling if CEPH is ever going to move back towards its relative
lows.  Weakness in the biotech sector would certainly help our
cause.  The BTK.X biotech index is currently struggling with its
100-dma at 348.53.  More substantial resistance looms overhead at
352, near the descending trend of lower highs.  We'd expected
CEPH to follow suit if the BTK retraces its recent gains and
retests the short-term lows.

Picked on December 30th at $48.77
Results since picked:       -0.80
Earnings Date            11/06/02 (confirmed)






=================================================================
Split Trader / Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 106.07 change: +6.07 stop: 103.99*new*

You don't see moves like that very often.  Shares of FRX gapped
up this morning on last night's earnings pre-warning of better
than expected results.  Shares jumped from $100.00 to open at
$105.00.  Early morning profit taking brought it back towards the
$104 level before bulls jumped on and drove it higher through
most of the day.  There was little surprise when the brokerage
community came out with nice things to say about FRX.  CSFB
raised their price target from $100 to $113 while maintaining
their out-perform rating.  Morgan Stanley reiterated their
overweight rating and raised their price target to $122.
Prudential raised their EPS estimates and said that FRX had the
best fundamentals in the drug sector.  Even Standard & Poor's
analyst got in on the act with an upgrade of their own.  S&P
upped FRX's rating from 3 stars (hold) to 4 stars (accumulate).
Yesterday we outlined that our profit target was $106 to $108.
Shares hit $106.70 today.  Short-term traders will want to
consider taking some profits now.  Our new strategy will be a
conservative one to protect profits.  Thus, we would not
recommend new positions at this time.  Traders need to keep an
eye on the major sector indices despite the bullishness displayed
in shares of FRX.  The DRG.X has been up the last four days and
is approaching heavy resistance at the 200-dma.  The BTK.X has
failed twice in as many days at the 350 level.  The biotech group
still has the 50 & 200-dma's casting clouds overhead.  Yes, we're
encouraged by the big move but we doubt this is the time to open
new positions.  We're going to up our stop to $103.99, which will
protect almost a 4% gain.  Meanwhile we're going to make our
official exit price $108.00.  Should shares trade there we'll
close the play.  It's hard to predict whether FRX will suffer
profit taking and attempt to fill part of the gap next week or
will it continue higher as investors looking for safe havens run
to a company with $1 billion in cash and no debt with rising
sales.  The stock does have its 2:1 split next week and if we
don't get triggered out of the play on Monday we'll most likely
exit at Tuesday's close.  Considering all the good news, traders
willing to look at longer-term positions may want to wait until
after the stock split occurs and then a proper pull back before
evaluating new entries.  Don't forget earnings are expected on
Jan. 16th.

Picked on December 24th at $100.26
Gain since picked:           +5.81
Earnings Date             01/16/03 (unconfirmed)




-------------------
Split Announcements
-------------------

Thinly-traded PrivateBancorp Announces 3-for-2 Stock Split

Prior to the opening bell this morning, PrivateBancorp (NasdaqNM:
PVTB) announced a 3-for-2 stock split.

The split will be payable on January 17th to shareholders of
record on January 13th.

PVTB has been drifting higher ever since it bottomed out at $22.60
in July, with the 50-dma (currently at $37.22) consistently
providing support.  Most recently, the stock has been hovering
below its all-time high of $39.89.  Note that PVTB trades on
relatively light volume.

Shares closed at $38.35 on Friday.  For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=PVTB

About the company
PrivateBancorp, Inc. was organized in 1989 to provide highly
personalized financial services primarily to affluent individuals,
professionals, owners of closely-held businesses and commercial real
estate investors. (source: company press release)



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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 01-03-2003
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of January 6th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


========================================
Market Watch for the week of January 6th
========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

STZ   Constellation Brands   Mon, Jan 06  After the Bell      0.68


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

HB    Hillenbrand Industries Tue, Jan 07  Before the Bell     0.75


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AA    ALCOA                  Wed, Jan 08  Before the Bell     0.25
EMMS  Emmis Communications   Wed, Jan 08  -----N/A-----       0.08
LEN   Lennar Corporation     Wed, Jan 08  Before the Bell      N/A
SDX   Sodexho Alliance S.A.  Wed, Jan 08  Before the Bell      N/A
STI   SunTrust               Wed, Jan 08  Before the Bell     1.18


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ACN   Accenture              Thu, Jan 09  Before the Bell     0.25
CMH   CLAYTON HOMES INC      Thu, Jan 09  Before the Bell     0.22
MDC   M.D.C Holdings         Thu, Jan 09  -----N/A-----       1.94
MSM   MSC Industrial Direct  Thu, Jan 09  -----N/A-----       0.16
RPM   RPM, Inc.              Thu, Jan 09  After the Bell      0.25
RI    Ruby Tuesday           Thu, Jan 09  -----N/A-----       0.27
STX   Seagate Technology Inc Thu, Jan 09  After the Bell       N/A
SIGY  Signet Group           Thu, Jan 09  Before the Bell     0.06


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

INFY  Infosys Technologies   Fri, Jan 10  -----N/A-----       0.39
STT  State Street Corp       Fri, Jan 10  -----N/A-----       0.56


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

FRX     Forest Labs               2:1      Jan.  8th   Jan.  9th
RAVN    Raven Industries          2:1      Jan. 15th   Jan. 16th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

After Thursday's big ISM Manufacturing number the markets will
be watching Monday's ISM Services report.  Factory orders and
Wholesale Inventories also come out this week.  Q4 earnings
reports are starting to trickle in.  Watch out - earnings season
is almost here!

==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 01/06/02
----------------
ISM Services (DM)       Dec  Forecast:   55.8  Previous:     57.4


Tuesday, 01/07/02
-----------------
Factory Orders (DM)     Nov  Forecast:  -0.6%  Previous:     1.2%


Wednesday, 01/08/02
-------------------
Consumer Credit (AB)    Nov  Forecast:  $3.8B  Previous:    $1.5B


Thursday, 01/09/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   01/04  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     403K
Wholesale Inventores(DM)Nov  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:    -0.3%


Friday, 01/10/02
----------------
Nonfarm Payrolls (BB)   Dec  Forecast:    21K  Previous:     -40K
Unemployment Rate (BB)  Dec  Forecast:   6.0%  Previous:     6.0%
Hourly Earnings (BB)    Dec  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.3%
Average Workweek (BB)   Dev  Forecast:   34.2  Previous:     34.2


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

UTX     United Technologies        64.41     +1.00
BTL     Barr Labs                  67.79     +0.86
SCSC    Scansource Inc             57.24     +6.53
HUG     Hughes Supply              28.30     +0.54
OHP     Oxford Health Plans        38.65     +0.84

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change
ICST    Integrated Circuit Sys.    19.96     +1.28
OVTI    Omnivision Tech.           17.35     +1.61

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

EK      Eastman Kodak              37.43     +1.59
SRDX    Surmodics Inc              31.49     +2.00
ASA     ASA Ltd                    42.19     +1.26
CERN    Cerner Corop               34.52     +2.47
CPS     Choicepoint Inc            41.90     +1.60

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

IVGN    Invitrogen Corp            30.16     -1.57
SWK     Stanley Works              33.76     -2.30
ASD     American Standard          69.48     -2.48
CSTR    Coinstar Inc               21.27     -1.52
PSS     Payless Shoesource         50.32     -2.32

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

                             




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