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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 01/29/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 01-29-2003
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Hard to Predict
Watch List:       BRL, CEPH, EBAY, KLAC, MSFT, and more...
Play of the Day:  Traveling South

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
01-29-2003                   High    Low     Volume Advance/Decl
DJIA     8110.71 +  21.87  8158.02  7945.00   1855 mln  1081/727
NASDAQ   1358.06 +  15.88  1363.31  1320.35   1466 mln   961/459
S&P 100   437.54 +  2.89    440.16  427.95    totals    2042/1286
S&P 500   864.36 +  5.82    868.72  845.94
RUS 2000  374.84 +  1.67    375.27  367.16
DJ TRANS 2163.38 -  2.06   2177.24 2121.67
VIX        35.22 -  0.30    38.28   35.20
VIXN       43.64 -  3.09    47.19   43.39
Put/Call Ratio 0.81
******************************************************************


===========
Market Wrap
===========

Hard to Predict
by Steven Price

Rather than predicting the next move in an extremely jittery
environment, it is probably best to simply highlight just how
reactive the current market is to a number of issues. It is
getting tough to predict market direction in the current
environment.  With so many earnings reports and political events
playing tug of war, hindsight is playing a bigger role in
evaluating moves than foresight.  For instance, I talked about
the possibility that yesterday afternoon's rally being just short
covering ahead of the President's speech.  When we opened down
sharply, that's what it appeared to be. We really got no new news
from the President, other than a new deadline of February 5 when
Colin Powell will present evidence to the UN, yet we opened with
a triple-digit Dow drop today. It seemed to tell us that outside
of the news event, the market sentiment remained down.  An
earnings miss and profit warning from Kraft didn't do much to
change that impression.  However, what we saw later in the day
indicated that Iraq is still the heaviest weight on the markets.
In fact, shortly after the Iraq announcement mid-day that it
would pro-actively cooperate with inspectors, we got a big rally,
erasing all of the day's losses. So maybe the cost of war is
being factored in by enough investors that we need to very
careful trying to short such a jittery market.  It also raises
the possibility that investors are simply waiting to hear that
war is behind us before getting back in from the long side. A
look at the charts still shows a market that is heading south and
there has been little on the economic front to cause a bounce.
Today's rally stalled at Dow 8158 and that still qualifies as a
failed rally below the head and shoulders breakdown level at
8200.

Of course, Iraq is just one of many news concerns and earnings
reports this week and even though the indication is that market
sentiment remains down, we really didn't get much of a sell-off
below the point we were at prior to the speech, so it is not as
though investors are running for the hills.  To the contrary, we
are bouncing repeatedly in a support area that indicates the big
move down following the rally during the first couple weeks of
January has exhausted itself and we are seeing a hard fought
battle between bears and bottom feeders.  Those traders/investors
who felt they had missed the December bottom when the market
rallied to start the year apparently still believe they are
getting a deal at current prices.  I'm not sure if they are
right, but so far we haven't seen anything to make us think there
is another big rally in the immediate future.  It seems the best
news for investors, which was the President's non-taxation of
dividends idea, is behind us.  As are the beginning of the year
retirement account contributions. The earnings reports we are
getting are positive for the most part for the fourth quarter.
However, the guidance going forward has been shaky and that's
really what we are concerned with - future action. Or at least
how the market will react to how it perceives the future.

An intraday chart of the Dow shows just how volatile and reactive
the market is in the current high-charged environment.  We took
out both Monday's low, and then made it all up and took out
Tuesday's high.  While it seems we are headed lower based on the
technical damage we've seen to the previously strong support
levels, trying to day trade the current market for more than a
few points has rarely been harder to do.

Intraday Chart of the Dow


Daily Chart of the Dow


The techs have also continued to show resilience after the big
drop of the last two weeks.  The last three days have seen the
Nasdaq Composite repeatedly test support in the 1320 range. That
level served as support on the rollover from the November 6 high
of 1419, just prior to rally up to 1521.  That November 6 high
coincides with the highs in the Dow, SPX and OEX that I have
pointed out in previous columns as a possible left shoulder in a
head and shoulders pattern.  The fact that the pullback support
level in the COMP has held is significant for one big reason - it
diverges from what we have seen in the other indices.  The Dow,
OEX and SPX have all broken through those previous pullback
support levels to the downside.  The COMP and NDX have both held
above those levels.  In fact, in many instances, the techs have
led the market over the last several years and the fact that they
are holding that support should throw up a red flag for the
doomsayers (myself included) that predicted another swoon
following the support break in the broader indices.

Chart of the COMP


The Semiconductor Index (SOX) also broke out from its range of
the past few days, bouncing off support that it appeared on the
verge of breaking.  The 280 support level was broken on a closing
basis, but just barely, on Monday.  The chip stocks have since
found buyers, forming a small saucer bottom and look intent on
testing prior resistance at 300. Part of the reason behind the
move was an upgrade to chipmaker Applied Materials (AMAT) +3.3%,
which was upped from neutral to buy at UBS Warburg.  Chip
equipment maker Cymer (+4.8%) also released earnings after the
bell on Tuesday.  The company posted a narrower than expected
loss and raised revenue guidance going forward.  The SOX finished
the day up at 290, but it will take a decisive move back above
300 to signal a trend reversal.

Chart of the SOX


The FOMC concluded its two-day meeting today, with no change in
interest rates, as expected. It also left its bias unchanged,
saying that risks are balanced between inflation and economic
weakness. The FOMC statement said that, "Oil price premiums and
other aspects of geopolitical risks have reportedly fostered
continued restraint on spending and hiring by businesses."  It
also said that it expects the economic climate to improve as
those risks are lifted. Basically the Fed is stepping out of the
way with interest rates at a 40-year low and allowing the Iraq
situation to work itself out.

The Market Volatility Index (VIX), which has mirrored the range
bound activity of the broader markets, but broken out as they
broke down, is also on the verge of pulling back below the
previous resistance line.  That line could now serve as support,
reflecting continuing fears for more downside.  If we are truly
ready for a bounce, it is likely we will see the VIX move back
below 35%, as the fear abates. So far, however, we are holding
above that level, even on Tuesday's bounce and Wednesday's
intraday recovery from the big drop.  The VIX is based on the
premium levels in OEX options.  Because the OEX is heavily
traded, it generally takes quite a bit of order flow to move the
VIX and reflects the activity of large institutions. If the VIX
reflects more fear than the big boys feel there needs to be, then
we see the VIX drop, even if the market does not move
significantly higher that day.  It almost always drops on big
moves to the upside as institutions reduce the cost of long
positions by selling out of the money premiums.  However, if it
drops to the point where it looks cheap, compared to current
market risk levels, then we also see support.   By holding above
the 35 level, which at one point institutions were willing to
sell, it tells us that the big players still have downside
concerns. Today's close at 35.22 is still above that mark,
although just barely.

Chart of the VIX


Deciphering what we saw today was no easier than it was
yesterday, or the day before.  We know that Iraqi developments
will continue to lead to big market swings.  Between now and
February 5, when Colin Powell makes his UN presentation, we may
see some digesting, without any real developments.  Of course,
that's what we thought today until mid-day, as well.  After the
bell, AOL-Time Warner missed forecasts and announced the biggest
corporate loss ever, at $45.5 billion, as it wrote down the value
of America On-Line.  It also announced the departure of Ted
Turner. If today was simply a relief rally following the tension
of the State of the Union address and FOMC meeting, we may get
yet another rollover tomorrow. However, shorts who decide to act
on that rollover below the aforementioned H&S breakdown level
(which I still believe is the favorable play) need to keep in
mind both the possibility of unpredictable action from world
events and the fact that the COMP and NDX are still holding there
November support levels. To the upside, playing long will have
plenty of resistance between Dow 8200 and 8400 to get through, so
traders may want to play on partial positions over 8200 until
that congestion is cleared on a rally.  If one thing is certain,
it is that we are still in one of the toughest trading
environments in quite some time.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Affiliated Computer Services - ACS - close: 52.42 change: -0.05

WHAT TO WATCH: News of a $33.2 million IT outsourcing contract
helped ACS to rebound from its 50-dma ($50.91) on Tuesday.  The
stock has been trending higher for several months, but wasn't
able to shake the recent tech sector weakness.  Shares might be
able to make another run at relative highs now that some profit-
taking has taken place.  This outlook is supporting by the rising
daily stochastics (5,3,3) and MACD, which is leveling out just
above the baseline.  Bullish entries could be evaluated on a move
above today's high ($53.05). We'd be looking to capture a move to
the $56-$57 area.




---

Barr Labs - BRL - close: 79.70 change: +0.96

WHAT TO WATCH: Business for Barr Labs is ticking along at a
pretty good clip.  The company raised its second quarter earnings
guidance on January 14th, citing stronger-than-expected sales of
its oral contraceptive products.  The following week they
reported a Q2 profit of 94 cents, which was at the high end of
the boosted guidance.  The daily chart for BRL reflects the
improving fundamentals.  Shares went on a tear in the first half
of January, as shares rapidly ascended from the $65.00 area
before finally leveling out below historical resistance at
$80.00.  The stock has spent the previous two weeks consolidating
under this level while consistently finding buyers near $77.00.
Today's action saw BRL follow the DRG.X pharmaceutical index to a
1.2% gain.  Shares are once again threatening to break above
$80.00.  A move above this level would open the door for a
possible test of the all-time highs near $90.00.  Although the
weekly chart shows loose resistance in the $81.00 area, the
reversing daily stochastics (5,3,3) suggest that BRL will be able
to move through this level without much trouble.  Barr Labs is
presenting at Piper Jaffray's health care conference tomorrow.
Any major news out of the meeting could have an impact on how the
stock trades.




---

Cephalon Inc. - CEPH - close: 48.18 change: -1.05

WHAT TO WATCH: That's quite a foreboding daily chart.  CEPH broke
below its 200-dma ($49.19) today after the company said it would
probably face generic competition to its Provigil
epilepsy/sleeping disorder treatment by 2006.  Previously
Cephalon had said that the drug's patent would be protected until
2014.  The resulting 2.1% decline also took the stock below the
December low of $47.76.  What should have shareholders concerned
is the fact that there is no clear underlying support until the
$42.00 region (although the p-n-f chart does show a short-term
uptrend at $44.00).  The rising volume and rolling MACD do not
instill much confidence in the bulls.  Watch for a move under
today's low ($47.57) to provide a possible bearish action point.




---

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 20.46 change: -0.20

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of Rockwell Collins have pulled back to
solid support in the $19.75-$20.00 region.  This level, which was
successfully tested on Monday, also happens to be the location of
bullish support on the point-and-figure chart.  The rising daily
stochastics and MACD histogram offer technical evidence that a
reversal might be taking place.  After a decline of more than 15%
from the relative highs, the bears seem to have lost their
momentum.  Long entries could be targeted on a move above
yesterday's high of $20.81, with an initial profit-target near
the 200-dma at $23.13.  Shorter-term traders could aim for a move
to the 50-dma at $22.08.




---

eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 74.93 change: +1.50

WHAT TO WATCH: In the aftermath of its bullish earnings report
earlier this month, EBAY rose to a multi-year high of $76.43.
Shares held up relatively well during the recent broader market
sell-off.  On Wednesday the stock tested its 21-dma at $72.53 and
quickly moved back to the $75.00 area.  Shares closed near the
best levels of the day, which bodes well for continued strength
tomorrow morning.  The long-term uptrend is intact, despite a
three-box reversal on the p-n-f chart.  EBAY looks like a good
bullish candidate on a move above $75.00.  We'd be using a fairly
tight stop-loss slightly under the 21-dma.  At the current rate
of ascent, it looks like shares could reach the $80.00 level by
mid-February.




---

KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 35.85 change: +1.18

WHAT TO WATCH: PI Readers who are familiar with our high-
risk/reward play in XLNX already know that we've been
anticipating a short-covering rebound in the chip group.  So far
the bulls have met our expectations.  The past two sessions have
seen the semiconductor index rally from support in the 278-280
region.  The SOX.X showed good relative strength today with a
3.0% gain, easily outpacing the NASDAQ.  Along with XLNX, KLAC
looks like a bullish sector play.  The stock has rebounded from
the November lows near $34.00 and moved above its 100-dma.  With
the oscillators producing the expected upward reversals, it looks
like shares might retrace a large chunk of the mid-January
selloff.  The daily chart shows no major levels of potential
resistance until the 50-dma at $38.72.  This would be a
reasonable upside target for short-term traders, who could think
about going long on a move above today's high ($36.06).  A
pullback to the $35.25 area might also offer an entry point.




---

Lowes Corp. - LTR - close: 43.91 change: +0.39

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this insurance company are beginning to
recover from a steep sell-off that took 10% off the stock's price
in less than two weeks.  What's compelling about this nascent
reversal is the fact that LTR is bouncing from the 50-dma at
$42.92.  This is also the location of an ascending uptrend formed
by the pattern of higher lows in November and December.  The
stock has also moved back above its 100-dma at $43.66.  Given the
solid underlying support, LTR looks like it offers a good
risk/reward setup at current levels.  As far as upside targets
are concerned, we'd be targeting a rally back to the relative
highs near $48.00.




---

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 49.92 change: +1.10

WHAT TO WATCH: Things were looking rather bleak for MSFT this
morning when the stock broke down out of an Inside Day formation
and proceeded to violate its bullish point-and-figure trend at
$48.00.  A strong NASDAQ rebound, however, helped the stock to
erase its early losses and finish solidly in the green.  That's a
strong intraday bounce, but we're not yet convinced that the
stock has put in a short-term bottom.  For one thing, MSFT hasn't
been able to break its recent trend of lower lows.  The stock
also closed just below psychological resistance at $50.00.  And
with bullish p-n-f support already broken, the stock is in danger
of falling to the October lows in the $43-$44 region.  Short
positions could be evaluated if MSFT retraces its intraday gains
and falls under today's low (which is also the multi-month low)
at $47.93.  A rollover from current levels might also yield an
entry point for more aggressive traders.




---

St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 43.50 change: +1.53

WHAT TO WATCH: STJ blasted to all-time highs today after the
company garnered an upgrade from Morgan Stanley.  MWD raised the
stock's rating from "underweight" to "equal-weight," based on its
belief that the risk of an earnings disappointment for St. Jude
has been negated.  The resulting 4.0% gain took STJ above both
the relative high at $42.60 and the all-time high at $43.13.
This move also produced a double-top buy signal on the point-and-
figure chart.  The rising oscillators are hinting at further
upside potential.  However, the bulls are already sitting on some
rather large short-term gains - STJ has rallied more than 12%
from yesterday's low.  Some profit-taking could be expected to
consolidate this move.  Thus, we'd be looking for a pullback to
the $42.00-$42.50 area to offer an entry point.  The p-n-f chart
shows a vertical bullish objective of $63.  A more realistic
upside target would be psychological resistance at $50.00.





=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH tech play)
=========================

Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 62.94 change: -1.14 stop: 66.56

Company Description:
Expedia is the world's leading online travel service and was the
eighth largest travel agency in the United States in 2001.
Expedia is a majority-owned subsidiary of USA Interactive
(source: company press release)

- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: January 21st, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
Shares of Expedia suffered a painful downward gap on January 6th.
The catalyst for this decline was an earnings warning from
competitor Hotels.com (ROOM), who said that a downturn in hotel
occupancy had taken its toll on the bottom line. EXPE derives a
large chunk of its revenue from selling lodging reservations over
the internet, so it's easy to see why investors were unnerved by
the indications of a hotel industry slump. The other major source
of business for Expedia is discount airfares. This sector is
facing some major problems as well. To wit: The XAL.X airline
index tanked by more than 5% today after Northwest Airlines
(NWAC) reported a quarterly loss of $2.55 per share. Analysts had
expected a loss of only $2.14 per share. NWAC's abysmal numbers
bode ill for tomorrow's earnings announcement from AMR, the
world's largest airline. The sector is in a nosedive and it
doesn't look like it's going to recover anytime soon. This is not
good news for Expedia. A sharp downturn in air traffic would be
disastrous for the company. But with the hotel business already
looking weak, even a small reduction in airfare sales could have
a very adverse impact on the bottom line. Poor results from AMR
(who announces during the market) would only underscore these
challenges.

On a technical basis, EXPE looks poised to extend its multi-month
downtrend. Broader market strength helped the stock to fill in a
portion of the January gap before the bears re-emerged at the
descending 21-dma. After a few days of following the NASDAQ
lower, today's negative airline news sent EXPE down to its 200-
dma at $63.40. A violation of this moving average would clear the
way for a possible test of the January 6th low of $60.36. And
what if THIS level fails? That's when things could really start
to get interesting. The daily chart shows no clear support until
$55.00, with the large October 24th gap just begging to be
filled. Although we'll initially target a move to the $55.00
area, longer-term traders could look to ride EXPE down to $50.00.
The steep October/November gains could be retraced in a very
rapid fashion if bad news continues to plague the travel group.
Our action trigger for EXPE will be placed at $63.37, just below
the descending 200-dma. If the play is activated we'll attempt to
limit our upside risk with a stop at $68.01.  More conservative
traders could use a stop slightly above the 21-dma at $66.94

- Last Update: January 28th, 2003 -

EXPE continues to gravitate towards its 200-dma. In a potentially
positive technical development, shares closed below this moving
average on Monday. The stock looked poised to break under the
relative low and move towards the $60.00 area. These bearish
expectations were dashed by today's rebound in the equity market.
But in spite of the 1.8% gain, shares did not come close to
breaking out of the multi-week downtrend. EXPE has instead been
consolidating in a relatively narrow range over the past week,
with neither the bulls nor the bears showing any resolve. The
MACD and daily stochastics (5,3,3) are both somewhat flat and not
giving any hint of where the stock is headed next. Once EXPE does
pick a direction, we think the movement could be swift. We've
tightened our stop to $66.56, which should keep potential losses
limited to roughly 5.0%. This is also above the 21-dma at $65.92.
Traders looking for new entries can continue to watch for a break
under $62.76.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: January 29th, 2003 -

It was not a banner day for the internet travel group.  Expedia,
Hotels.com (ROOM), and TSG (the parent company of Travelocity),
all faded the broader market and finished in the red.  EXPE
posted a 1.7% loss after rolling over once again from the two-
week trend of lower highs.  The bulls attempted to lift shares
off the relative low of $62.20 this afternoon, only to be turned
back near $63.60.  Given the stock's inability to move higher
with the major indices, we think odds are good that a test of the
January low ($60.36) could be forthcoming.  It's also encouraging
to see that shares once again closed below the 200-dma at $63.26.
A complete abandonment of this moving average would be a very
positive sign for the bears.  New short entries can be targeted
on a move under today's low of $62.20.  Aggressive traders could
also watch for another rollover from the aforementioned downtrend
(currently near $64.00) to provide an action point.  While the
January lows do offer possible support, we suspect that shares
could eventually reach the $55.00 region.

Picked on January 22nd at $63.37
Results since picked:      +0.43
Earnings Date           02/05/03 (confirmed)







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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 01-29-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Triggered Plays:     APD (bearish)


==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

Triggered Plays
---------------

Air Products - APD - close: 40.43 change: +0.06 stop: 43.02

Early-morning broader market weakness was just what the bears
needed to push APD below the $40.00 support region.  Our short
play was triggered at $39.84 within the first half-hour of
trading.  The stock continued to mirror the Dow Jones throughout
the session, eventually working its way back into positive
territory.  But now that support has been breached on an intraday
basis, sellers may find it much easier to gain traction if the
market resumes its recent downtrend.  Our stop is set at $43.02.
As we mentioned in last night's play description, those looking
for a little less upside risk may want to use a stop slightly
above $42.15.







=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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