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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 02/04/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 02-04-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Worst Ever
Market Sentiment: Moonwalking
Play-of-the-Day:  Breaking It Down

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      02-04-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8013.01 - 96.80  8104.61  7935.12 1.68 bln   1338/1880
NASDAQ   1306.15 - 17.60  1310.48  1292.20 1.34 bln   1257/2005
S&P 100   428.84 -  6.86   435.70   436.14   Totals   2595/3885
S&P 500   848.20 - 12.12   860.32   840.19
W5000    8049.55 -105.30  8154.81  7980.27
RUS 2000  368.72 -  1.53   370.25   364.99
DJ TRANS 2145.38 - 12.10  2160.41  2131.29
VIX        36.70 +  2.72    38.08    36.22
VXN        48.31 +  2.27    48.90    47.55
Total Volume 3,213M
Total UpVol    783M
Total DnVol  2,368M
52wk Highs  168
52wk Lows   232
TRIN       2.16
PUT/CALL    .84
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Worst Ever

That was the comment by John Chambers about the current
technology environment. The AIG CEO made similar comments
about the current state of the liability insurance business
when warning this morning about a -$1.8 billion charge.
Does this sound like an economic recovery?

Dow Chart - Daily


Dow Chart - 45 min


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


We began the day with the Factory Orders report, which posted
a +0.4% gain on the headline number, which was above the +0.3%
consensus. Unfortunately if you take out defense and aircraft
the number actually dropped to -0.33%. The Computer and
Electronics orders component rose +3.2%. Order backlog fell
again suggesting more layoffs ahead. It was obviously a
mixed report and despite the rise in the headline number
it did not encourage investors.

According to the Challenger Layoff Report the number of
layoffs increased +42% from 92,917 in December to 132,222
in January. This was above the 2002 monthly average of
119,200. According to John Challenger there is no evidence
that the pace of layoffs has slowed. This is a leading
indicator for the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and a telling
clue to the strength of the fragile recovery. We saw last
week that the Help Wanted Index had fallen to a very low
level. Fewer jobs and higher layoffs are not indicating
an end to the soft patch.

Chain Store Sales came in at -0.9% and reversed the gains
for the prior two weeks. Some feel the slow sales are a
result of lower inventories going into the holiday season
leaving lower levels of clearance items to dump in January.
Stores would rather not have any sales than have to sell
excess holiday inventory for a loss. With confidence/sentiment
slipping toward the lows and rising unemployment the odds
of a pickup in buying are slim.

Impacting the market more than the economic reports was
a warning from AIG that they were going to take a $1.8
billion charge to cover spiraling claims. They claimed
premium rates have been driven down by fierce competition
to levels that did not cover damage awards in today's
litigious environment. This knocked -3.63 off the price
of AIG and the comment about lower premiums due to fierce
competition rippled through the sector and drove prices
lower.

Another example of tough times was the decision by the
Goodyear board to eliminate their 12-cent dividend to
save cash. They decided to take the action in light of
disappointing results and challenging conditions. GT
notified employees in January it may cut -15% of its
US workforce. Are they telling us the auto companies
are ordering less tires in expectation of slower sales?

After the bell Cisco reported earnings that beat the
street on the surface at 14 cents a share compared to
estimates of 13 cents. That was the good news but that
news was tainted. Those results were also based on Cisco's
buyback of $1.5 billion in stock in the quarter. That is
100 million shares. Other factors included a revenue
number that was on the bottom edge of the consensus.
Cisco said that sales could fall -2% to -3% in the
current quarter due to the "most challenging environment
the information technology industry had ever faced."
Not very bullish words from the master of spin himself.
He was very positive about Cisco and the potential for
profits WHEN the spending in the IT sector returned. I
believe him because their gross margins rose to a
whopping record 70.4%. While this is great one analyst
said he would be more comfortable with 50% so they would
have some growth room. Performing at such high profit
rates means they could explode on volume in my personal
opinion. Still CSCO fell in after hours on the outlook
statements.

While Cisco may be performing well despite the tough
environment and falling sales there are probably few
other tech companies who are doing that good. The news
of the 70% margin for Cisco is great for Cisco but other
companies are fighting to make a profit much less prosper.
Cisco may have a decent day on Wednesday but other techs
may not do as well based on the tough environment talk.

In geopolitical news North Korea took exception to the
US statement that they were going to move ships and
planes into the region to combat a potential future
threat. Iraq claimed again they had no weapons despite
another minor find by the inspectors. Regardless of the
claims and posturing we will see the evidence the US is
willing to release tomorrow when Powell goes before the
UN. The coalition is actually growing with a few more
countries leaning in the US direction due to strong
lobbying by the top players. I have no clue as to the
market direction after this speech. If he proves his
case and gets more UN support that would be a good thing
for the war but a negative for the market? If he does
not prove anything and the world realizes the US is
going to act by itself wouldn't that be bad for the
market? Who knows what is priced in at this point.

The markets need help from somewhere. The Dow tested
7950 once again and held but struggled getting back
over 8000. The Nasdaq finally gave up the 1320 level
and the 1300 level for most of the day but clawed its
way back to 1305 on short covering in front of Cisco's
earnings. The rising oil, gold and falling dollars is
extracting money from the markets in a torrent. Comments
like AIG, GT, CSCO today along with the Challenger Layoff
report are not building any confidence in a recovery. The
Nonfarm payrolls are due out Friday and most bets are for
a negative number again. This will be the third consecutive
month and fourth out of five months if it happens.

I think the bottom line is still a negative outlook
despite all attempts to spin it to the contrary. There
are pockets of strength like we saw last Friday but the
potential war is keeping those areas from expanding. The
markets are showing a strong desire to hold at this level
but the overall trend is still down. Tomorrow should be
one more step toward clearing the war uncertainty and the
results of "seeing clearer" could be good or bad. These
next 2-3 weeks are going to be tough unless the US says
"ok, we are giving up and going home." Anything else will
continue to be a drag of some sort.

In the S&P Emini futures there was an unusual event this
afternoon. They were trading for 847.25 when Cisco earnings
were announced. The intraday high was 848.00. When CSCO
announced they beat the street they spiked to 948.00. No,
that is not a misprint. Somebody entered a trade to buy
several hundred contracts but added an extra zero. In
literally a couple of heartbeats the price jumped +100
points. Traders were dumbstruck. I had about a dozen charts
of the ES03H contract open on my desktop for different
intervals and the price literally rolled off the top of
the screen within a couple seconds as buy stops were
triggered for level after level. Globex eventually busted
all the trades above 860 once the error was reported
but there were some really unhappy traders for about 20
min. Several really happy ones as well who had shorts
parked well above the current ranges. When I first saw
the spike I thought Cisco had blown away estimates but
could not imagine a win that could produce that type of
spike. Immediately I thought Saddam had been eliminated
or Osama had been found. That would be the type of reaction
I would expect. Just not in 5-10 seconds. Just proves you
always need stop losses regardless of how far away you are
from the current price. Have you hugged your stops today?

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

Moonwalking
by Steve Price

Was that a reversal of sentiment we saw today, or simply more
range bound trading? So far we have yet to break the range that
we have been in for the last week, and until the Iraq situation
comes more closely into focus, it is likely to continue.  Of
course with Cisco earnings out tonight, we may get a push in one
direction or the other, but the news is still currently dominated
by Iraq.

Today's sell-off was enough to turn the point and figure charts
in the major indices back into bearish columns of "O" and has us
flirting with triple-bottom breakdowns in the Dow and SPX.  The
OEX is looking at a double-bottom signal just below today's
range, or for non-traditional PnF chartists a descending triple-
bottom. While the equity percentages for those patterns cannot be
translated directly to indices, those breakdowns will still look
awfully bearish if they occur.  However, they have not yet
occurred and until we get them, it is hard to conclude we are
anything but range bound.  The SPX breakdown would occur at 840
and the index actually rebounded at 840.19, indicating there are
possibly institutions playing the bounce from those levels.

The morning sell-off followed news from insurance giant AIG that
it would take a$1.8 billion charge in the fourth quarter to
increase reserves for workers' compensation claims. The company
said judgments and settlements reached record high levels of
frequency and severity in 2002 and increased across several
areas.  AIG also is increasing reserves to cover directors' and
officers' liability and health care liability, as well.  That
sent AIG down 6.5% with a loss of $3.63 and sent other financials
reeling.  Once the financials gave in, the rest of the market
followed.   It is curious that workers' comp claims reached their
highest levels, considering unemployment reach higher levels in
2002, and thus there were fewer workers.  However, maybe this is
further argument for the President's tort reform agenda.
Certainly, with doctors going on strike in New Jersey due to high
medical malpractice costs resulting from large jury awards, there
are a number of reasons supporting that theory.  Workers'
Compensation is generally handled in an administrative court,
rather than the traditional courtroom, but it is becoming obvious
that claims of all types, and the awards that follow, are
increasing.

One of the other catalysts for this morning's slide was a warning
from French telecom giant Alcatel.  The equipment maker forecast
a drop of 25%-30% in first-quarter sales, following a similar
warning from Ericsson on Monday.  Sales declines were expected,
but not to this degree.

Gold futures continued their defensive climb ahead of Colin
Powell's speech to the U.N. They raced to multi-year highs,
jumping as high as 382, following a close of 370.8 on Monday.
That defensive indication was confirmed by moves in oil and
bonds.  Oil futures got a big bounce after falling on Monday
following an increase in Venezuelan output.  That pricing
pressure didn't last long as war fears took over once again,
driving prices back over $33 per barrel for March futures.

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) went into a holding pattern ahead
of Cisco's earnings release.  While Cisco doesn't make chips, the
forecast from the company should affect most techs tomorrow and
traders seemed weary of taking positions ahead of those earnings.
Those earnings beat estimates by two cents, but were accompanied
by lower than expected sales and cautious comments.  Cisco's CEO
called it "the most challenging environment the information
technology industry has ever faced."  In spite of the earnings
beat, the stock sold off slightly after-hours.  After a close of
$13.20, it was trading $13.12 as of this writing.  It did trade
as low as $12.63 following its announcement.

We did rebound strongly from the day's lows, just above the
breakdown levels.  The Dow finished the day with a loss of 96.53,
giving back part of the gains of the past two days, but still
nothing decisive.  Traders following the retracement from the
August highs to the October lows in the Dow, SPX and OEX will
note that we have been stuck between the 50% retracement to the
upside and the 38.2% retracement to the downside on a closing
basis.  Look for a closing print outside of those brackets for an
indication the trend will continue in one direction or another.
There is still quite a bit of overhead resistance to get through
if we do break to the upside, but that will be the first step.
If we break to the downside, there is little to prevent us from
heading toward first the July lows, and then possibly those set
in October.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8013

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8113
 50-dma: 8523
200-dma: 8781

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  848

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  860
 50-dma:  899
200-dma:  931

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     :  971

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  996
 50-dma: 1041
200-dma: 1033
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  The SOX has gone into a
consolidation mode, barely moving since the AMAT warning last
week sent it to a bounce off the 260 support level. It has
hovered around 270 the last few days, but now registering lower
closes for four straight days. The trend remains down, but it the
sector has actually out performed the rest of the techs.  The
COMP and NDX have broken down to new lows, with the COMP taking
out support at 1300 intraday.  We'll be watching the reaction in
the tech sector to the Cisco news (highlighted above) after the
bell.  If the SOX does break down below 260 on a sell-off, it
finds the next level of support at in the 235-245 range.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 269

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 303
 50-dma: 316
200-dma: 349
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX rebounded back over the 35% level that has been so
pivotal in recent months. The break below that level on Monday
indicated fear had been draining out of the market as we tested
resistance toward the upper end of this week's range.  Today's
test of the lower end of that range woke up traders to the
downside possibilities and sent the VIX as high as 38.08
intraday.  If we do continue lower in the equities, the next
level of resistance in the VIX is 40 (actually 40.89 intraday).
A decisive move over 40 would indicate a bigger breakdown in the
wings.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 36.70 +2.72
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 48.31 +2.27
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.84        522,531       439,393
Equity Only    0.78        356,403       277,660
OEX            1.37         22,092        30,331
QQQ            0.79         59,494        47,278
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          45.2    - 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    44.0    - 3     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   26.7    - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       45.0    - 1     Bull Correction
S&P 100       41.0    - 2     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.42
10-Day Arms Index  1.39
21-Day Arms Index  1.31
55-Day Arms Index  1.29

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1133          1715
NASDAQ     1175          1920

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        71               61
NASDAQ      61               79

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,668
NASDAQ     1,349
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 01/28/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials increased long and short positions, ending up with a
net short increase of 4,500 contracts.  Small traders took the
opposite approach, reducing both positions, but ending up with a
net increase of 4,300 long contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/07/03      411,542   455,538   (43,996)   (5.1%)
01/14/03      411,052   453,164   (42,112)   (4.9%)
01/21/03      415,028   456,885   (41,857)   (4.8%)
01/28/03      422,232   468,586   (46,354)   (5.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/07/03      143,169    83,895    59,274     26.1%
01/14/03      144,182    92,358    51,824     21.9%
01/23/03      148,227    95,356    52,871     21.7%
01/28/03      142,734    85,567    57,167     25.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials left positions virtually unchanged, with a net
reduction of 1,300 short contracts.  Small traders Small traders
 left the long side unchanged, while reducing shorts by 800
 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/07/03       37,966     48,156   (10,190) (11.8%)
01/14/03       38,057     45,060   ( 7,003) ( 8.4%)
01/23/03       37,174     49,789   (12,615) (14.5%)
01/28/03       37,955     49,321   (11,366) (13.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/07/03       19,708     8,453    11,255    40.1%
01/14/03       20,757     8,320    12,437    42.8%
01/23/03       25,852     6,764    19,088    58.5%
01/28/03       25,814     7,576    18,238    54.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced the overall long position by 1,400 contracts,
while small traders reduced the net short by 200 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/07/03       16,210    11,333    4,877      17.7%
01/14/03       17,804    12,427    5,377      17.8%
01/23/03       16,901    11,031    5,870      21.0%
01/28/03       16,013    11,574    4,439      16.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/07/03        4,963     8,334    (3,371)   (25.4%)
01/14/03        4,552     7,697    (3,145)   (25.7%)
01/23/03        5,120     8,282    (3,162)   (23.6%)
01/28/03        4,838     7,836    (2,998)   (23.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BEARISH high-risk/high-reward play))
===============

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 30.71 change: -1.70 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corporation is a leader in the discovery,
development, and commercialization of targeted immunotherapies for
the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases. IDEC discovered and
developed the first monoclonal antibody product (Rituxan.) and the
first radioimmunotherapy product (Zevalin.) approved in the United
States for the treatment of cancer. IDEC is a San Diego based,
integrated biopharmaceutical company with multiple products in
clinical stage development and strategic alliances in a variety of
research platforms. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals announced earnings last Thursday that were
in-line with consensus expectations.  Owing mostly to strong
sales of its cancer drug Rituxan (which is co-marketed with Genentech),
the company reported a large increase in fourth-quarter profits.
This came as no surprise, because IDEC had pre-
announced two weeks earlier that it would beat earnings by four
cents.  The stock got a quick pop in reaction to that news but
has since trended lower with the BTK.X biotech index.  That
sector weakness continues to plague IPDH.  On Tuesday the BTK.X
underperformed the NASDAQ and moved to new multi-month lows.
Shares of IDEC fared even worse, selling off by 5.2% on
relatively strong volume.  This took the stock out of a narrow
range (most readily visible on a 30-minute chart) that dictated
trading for more than a week.  Bringing up a point-and-figure
chart, we can see that today's decline also produced a triple-
bottom sell signal.  The current bearish vertical count is
$24.00.  The weekly chart shows no clear support until the $20.00
area.  While longer-term traders might want to target a move to
that level, we'll be aiming for a decline to the $24-$25 region.
However, in order to avoid the possibility of a p-n-f bear trap
(and also to ensure that a breakdown has occurred), we won't
enter this play until IDPH falls below $30.00.  If we're
triggered our stop-loss will be placed at $32.82, one cent above
the relative high.  This sets up a risk/reward ratio of roughly
1:2.  More conservative traders could use a stop slightly above
Tuesday's intraday resistance at $31.30.

Annotated weekly chart - IDPH:



Picked on February xth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/30/03 (confirmed)







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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 02-04-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  EBAY
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCMP
  Closed Bearish Plays:  EXPE

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD, JWN
  Closed Bullish Plays:  FRX

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     IDPH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 73.10 change: -0.94 stop: *text*

EBAY is going to have a tough time moving towards its relative
highs if the NASDAQ continues to drift lower.  The stock pulled
back over the past two sessions and retraced last week's gains.
Shares never approached our entry trigger at $75.51.  A move back
to this level will probably be hard to come by if the broader
market extends its losses.  However, an additional pullback might
also present a buying opportunity.  We'd specifically be
interested in capturing a rebound from the 50-dma near $71.00.
This moving average helped EBAY find a bottom in late-December.
For the time being we're keeping our upside action point at
$75.51.  If shares move above this level we'll go long
(hypothetically) with a stop at $72.59.  We're also going to set
an alternate entry strategy in an attempt to take advantage of a
rebound from the 50-dma.  If EBAY falls below $71.00 our
secondary trigger will be placed at $71.26.  If shares bounce
from the 50-dma and move above $71.25, we'll activate the long
play with a stop at $69.94.  Our objective for this secondary
strategy will be to ride EBAY back to the $75-$76 area.

Picked on February xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/16/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cabot Microelectronics - CCMP - cls: 43.17 chg: +0.04 stop: 46.93

These days positive news in the semiconductor sector is about as
rare as an American flag in Iraq.  News that AMD would delay the
release of its next line of processors gave the bears additional
ammunition on Monday.  Today's action saw the SOX.X
(semiconductor index) trade in a relatively tight range ahead of
the CSCO earnings report.  CCMP wavered on either side of break-
even before finishing with a fractional gain.  Technically, we're
encouraged by the fact that shares hit a relative low and also
traced another lower high on the daily chart.  Tech bulls who
were hoping for salvation from CSCO were disappointed by the
company's announcement.  Shares of the networking giant were
trading slightly lower in after-hours action.  The lack of a
positive reaction to their earnings might provide added pressure
to the overall tech sector on Wednesday.  Our stop for CCMP loss
remains above the 100-dma at $46.93.  Traders looking to lower
their upside exposure might want to use a stop just above the
200-dma at $45.57.  New entries could be targeted on a move under
today's low ($42.57), but remember that the stock might find some
buyers at the $40.00 level.

Picked on January 31st at $43.70
Results since picked:      +0.53
Earnings Date           01/23/03 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Expedia Inc. - EXPE - cls: 56.24 chg: -4.09 stop: 63.11

That sucking sound you hear is EXPE getting pulled into the large
vacuum region between $40 and $60.  After experiencing some tepid
buying during the previous session, Expedia completely abandoned
support on Tuesday.  Shares gapped slightly lower and sliced
through the relative low of $58.80.  Within two hours the stock
had fallen to the $56.25 region.  There was no news in either
EXPE, ROOM, or TSG to explain this weakness.  Shares may have
been pressured by persistent negative airline news, but overall
it looks like the sell-off mostly stemmed from the technical
breakdown.  Shares set an intraday low of $55.86, just ten cents
away from our profit-target.  With shares closing only slightly
above this level and EXPE announcing earnings tomorrow after the
bell, we're going to close this play as of today's closing price.
This represents a gain of 11.2% from our original entry point.
Although the daily chart looks awful for the bulls (check out
that volume spike!), we simply don't have the risk tolerance to
hold over earnings.  After a steep decline over the past three
months its possible that a lot of fundamental weakness may have
already been priced in.  A hint of positive news, on the other
hand, would probably trigger a temporary short-covering rally.
Longer-term traders who don't mind holding over earnings should
be watching for a move below $55.00 to clear the way for a
possible decline to the $50.00 area.

Picked on January 22nd at $63.37
Results since picked:      +7.13
Earnings Date           02/05/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 41.05 change: -0.38 stop: 42.51

Last week's rebound from the $40.00 area seems to be losing
steam.  APD has traced lower highs over the past two sessions,
showing no ability to shake off the broader market weakness.
Investors showed little reaction to the company's presentation at
a Lehman Brothers conference yesterday.  A 5-minute chart of
today's action shows that APD consistently found buyers at
$41.00.  On Wednesday we'll be looking for shares to move below
that level and break under today's low of $40.71.  If the market
reacts negatively to Colin Powell's appearance at the UN it'll be
tough for industrial/manufacturing stocks such as APD to hold
their ground.  Our stop remains at $42.51.  Traders looking to
reduce risk could use a stop slightly above $42.00 or the
relative high of $41.82.  An eventual move under the relative low
of $39.32 might provide another action point to open short
positions.  We would not advise entries at current levels.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      -1.21
Earnings Date           01/22/03 (confirmed)




---

Nordstrom Inc - JWN - cls: 17.75 chg: -0.48 stop: 18.73 *new*

There's the breakdown we were looking for.  JWN is trading at
fresh multi-month lows after spending several sessions trading
near critical support at $18.00.  Shares succumbed to heavy
selling during the first half-hour of trading today before
stabilizing above $17.70. The stock finished with a 2.6% loss,
underperforming both the Dow Jones and the RLX.X retail index.
This is a very encouraging technical development.  JWN is now in
danger of retracing its steep mid-October rally, with no clear
support until the $15.50-$16.00 area.  Those July and August lows
near $16.50 might give the bulls something to hang their hats on,
but Nordstrom will have a difficult time attracting buyers if the
RLX.X keeps trending lower.  Traders looking for new entries can
watch for a move under either today's low ($17.68) or $17.50.  A
violation of the latter level would trigger a double-bottom sell
signal on the point-and-figure chart.  Also note that our stop-
loss had been lowered to $18.73, fourteen cents above the 21-dma.

Picked on January 27th at $17.98
Results since picked:      +0.23
Earnings Date           02/20/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 49.95 change: -1.07 stop: 49.74

Weakness in the major indexes sent FRX immediately lower on
Tuesday morning.  Our stop was violated within the first ten
minutes of the opening bell, closing this play for a loss of
5.7%.  The violation of support at $50.00 did not sit well with
investors.  FRX moved sharply lower before buyers finally moved
in near the 100-dma ($48.90) shortly after 12:00 EST.  Shares
trended higher for the remainder of the session, ultimately
finishing with a loss of 2.0%.  That's a decent intraday rebound,
but the bulls will have a tough time holding on to those gains if
the broader market continues to sell off.  Traders who are still
long may want to think about heading for the exits if FRX fills
in this morning's gap and rolls over from $51.00.  The
fundamental strength that was outlined in the original play
write-up is still a significant factor, so we'd consider giving
FRX another shot if it bounces from the next level of support at
$46.00.

Picked on January 24th at $53.01
Results since picked:      -3.06
Earnings Date           01/16/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 30.71 change: -1.70 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corporation is a leader in the discovery,
development, and commercialization of targeted immunotherapies for
the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases. IDEC discovered and
developed the first monoclonal antibody product (Rituxan.) and the
first radioimmunotherapy product (Zevalin.) approved in the United
States for the treatment of cancer. IDEC is a San Diego based,
integrated biopharmaceutical company with multiple products in
clinical stage development and strategic alliances in a variety of
research platforms. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
IDEC Pharmaceuticals announced earnings last Thursday that were
in-line with consensus expectations.  Owing mostly to strong
sales of its cancer drug Rituxan (which is co-marketed with Genentech),
the company reported a large increase in fourth-quarter profits.
This came as no surprise, because IDEC had pre-
announced two weeks earlier that it would beat earnings by four
cents.  The stock got a quick pop in reaction to that news but
has since trended lower with the BTK.X biotech index.  That
sector weakness continues to plague IPDH.  On Tuesday the BTK.X
underperformed the NASDAQ and moved to new multi-month lows.
Shares of IDEC fared even worse, selling off by 5.2% on
relatively strong volume.  This took the stock out of a narrow
range (most readily visible on a 30-minute chart) that dictated
trading for more than a week.  Bringing up a point-and-figure
chart, we can see that today's decline also produced a triple-
bottom sell signal.  The current bearish vertical count is
$24.00.  The weekly chart shows no clear support until the $20.00
area.  While longer-term traders might want to target a move to
that level, we'll be aiming for a decline to the $24-$25 region.
However, in order to avoid the possibility of a p-n-f bear trap
(and also to ensure that a breakdown has occurred), we won't
enter this play until IDPH falls below $30.00.  If we're
triggered our stop-loss will be placed at $32.82, one cent above
the relative high.  This sets up a risk/reward ratio of roughly
1:2.  More conservative traders could use a stop slightly above
Tuesday's intraday resistance at $31.30.

Annotated weekly chart - IDPH:



Picked on February xth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/30/03 (confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PERY    Perry Ellis                20.38     +2.84
BBY     Best Buy                   26.99     +0.67
OII     Oceaneering Intl.          24.20     +0.90

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change

AAII    AAI Pharma                18.92     +1.70
RANGY   Randgold                  13.50     +1.27

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CARS    Capital Automotive         24.55     +1.07
CVS     CVS Corp                   24.55     +1.21
EW      Edwards Life Sciences      25.93     +1.40
MLI     Mueller Industries         26.62     +1.02
AVP     Avon Products              51.18     +1.18

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

GENZ    Genzyme Corp               30.65     -2.55
CB      Chubb Corp                 51.60     -2.97
XL      XL Capital                 74.03     -2.06
NDN     99 Cents Only Stores       24.00     -2.89
ABK     Ambac Financial            51.70     -1.80
CCU     Clear Channel Comm.        37.65     -1.90
HET     Harrah's Entertainment     35.20     -1.40

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SWBT    Southwest Bancorp          30.74     -1.09



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