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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 02/07/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-07-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Orange? I See Red
Play-of-the-Day:  Too Much Supply
Watch List:       CB, FCX, LEH, MYG, SNE, and lots more...
Market Sentiment: Confirmation

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 02-07        WE 01-31        WE 01-24        WE 01-17
DOW     7864.23 -189.58 8053.81 - 77.20 8131.01 -455.73 -198.21
Nasdaq  1282.47 - 38.44 1320.91 - 21.23 1342.14 - 34.06 - 71.55
S&P-100  418.79 - 13.78  432.57 -  3.57  436.14 - 21.22 - 13.05
S&P-500  829.69 - 26.01  855.70 -  5.70  861.40 - 40.38 - 25.79
W5000   7873.42 -251.65 8125.07 - 50.67 8175.74 -354.59 -228.10
RUT      358.78 - 13.39  372.17 -  2.89  375.06 - 13.04 -  8.34
TRAN    2139.97 - 33.38 2173.35 + 10.02 2163.33 -181.20 - 49.14
VIX       38.80 +  3.02   35.78 +  0.01   35.77 +  7.09 +  1.55
VXN       48.26 +  1.45   46.81 +  1.76   45.05 +  2.21 +  0.56
TRIN       1.57            0.89            1.69            1.60
Put/Call   0.94            0.84            0.83            0.83
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Orange? I See Red
by Jim Brown

The Homeland Defense Dept raised the terrorist threat level to
orange on Friday but all I see is red ink across the board. The
Jobs numbers blew out estimates but traders recoiled in terror.
Is there any end to this nightmare on Wall Street?

Dow Chart - Daily


Dow Chart - 60 min


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


It was a blowout! Over 143,000 jobs were created in January
according to the nonfarm payroll report but wary traders were
quick to discount the numbers. The jump in numbers was primarily
in the retail sector and was predicated on a lack of hiring in
December. Let me see if I can explain it. The jobs number is the
net of the new jobs created and existing jobs eliminated. Say
in any given month 500,000 jobs were created and 450,000 jobs
were eliminated. The net result would be a jobs number showing
a +50,000 new jobs. These numbers are adjusted for seasonality
as well. If there are typically an additional 250,000 retail
jobs created in November/December for holiday overload then
those 250,000 jobs are eliminated in January. Instead of having
the jobs number for November show an increase of +250,000 jobs
when everybody knows they are just 60 day temps, they adjust
the Nov/Dec/Jan numbers by 250,000 to remove this bump from
the reporting process.

Now assume in 2002 there were only 100,000 jobs created for
the holidays. After deducting the 250,000 expected jobs
you get a -150,000 negative job number for December. Fewer
jobs created minus the average number of jobs that should
have been created based on historical norms. We saw this in
the December number when it came in at -101,000 instead of
the +37,000 expected. A net difference of -148,000. Now that
the holidays are over there are normally 250,000 jobs
eliminated so the bean counters adjust the actual numbers
by +250,000 again to keep things level. The problem is the
reverse of Decembers. Since only 100,000 were actually
created only the same 100,000 were eliminated. That is
150,000 under the normal adjustment so the jobs number
shows a gain of +150,000 when there was actually no jobs
created. It was a historical adjustment by the bean counters
only. No jobs! Since they were never hired the job loss
number in December was wrong and since they were no jobs
to be eliminated the January number is wrong. They also
revised the December Jobs lost down to -156,000 from
-101,000. When netting the two "adjustments" together
-156,000 and +143,000, the phantom gain for January, you
get an actual loss of -13,000 or -6,500 for each month.
This realization of reality is what took the bloom off the
markets at the open on Friday. Smoke and mirrors, although
well intentioned, bit them in the end.

A big talking point from the report was the drop in the
unemployment rate to 5.7% from 6% and how it was such a
large improvement. Wrong again. You cannot lower the real
unemployment rate without creating jobs. Jobs were not
created as we saw above. The UNP numbers changed from
8,711,000 to 8,302,000 due to workers unable to find
jobs, tiring of the process and dropping out of the system.
It was not due to 409,000 or nearly 5% of the total suddenly
finding jobs in January. Remember the Challenger layoffs
for January soared +42% to -132,222? Five percent of the
workforce did not suddenly find work when mass layoffs
alone grew to 132K and this does not count normal business
reductions. The Challenger report only tracks mass layoffs
where a company cuts say 10% of its total workforce.

Speaking of layoffs Goldman Sachs announced it was cutting
20% of its traders in its derivatives group due to lack of
volume and the declining markets. GS also cut -908 jobs in
the 4Q or 4% of its staff.

Wholesale Trade numbers came back to earth on Friday with
a -0.8% drop in December. Analysts claim sales are improving
with inventory levels up slightly but with a headline number
three times lower than the expected +0.4% increase it would
be tough to convince me.

The warning news on Friday was thick and I am talking about
earnings and not terrorists. After the bell on Thursday Dell
and EDS made cautious comments and those were followed on
Friday by TECD who warned profits for the current year would
be off as much as -25% due to slipping demand an falling
prices. PIXR warned that earnings would be half of analyst's
estimates. PCTY warned that economic and political uncertainty
was hurting business and they said earnings could come in -30
cents under analyst's estimates of $1.09. PCTY is the largest
party goods chain. Clothing and shoe retailer Genesco warned
that weak sales in its Johnston and Murphy shoe business and
slowing apparel sales overall would push earnings -10 cents
under estimates. Mohawk warned that earnings would slip on
waning demand for carpet and earnings would be well below
estimates. Lack of demand for carpet? Have you looked at
the home builders stocks lately? I could go on but you get
the picture.

Slow sales, lack of demand, sound familiar? Want real proof?
Consumer credit for December dropped by -$4 billion when
analysts expected a gain of +$4.3 billion. This was the
second consecutive decline. Think about it. A -$4 billion
decline in the biggest spending month of the year. There
are multiple reasons from high unemployment and fear of
being unemployed causing consumers to spend less especially
on credit. Secondly the mortgage-refinancing boom has provided
cash to pay off these debts and reduce monthly payments for
cash strapped consumers. Low sales? You bet and according to
who you listen to the future is likely to get worse.

95,000 retired workers and dependents for Bethlehem Steel
found out after the bell on Friday that their health and
life insurance benefits were going to be terminated. The
steel company says it cannot pay the obligations now or
in the future. Considering the cost in health insurance
and the risk of not having it, this is going to be a major
blow to this group. The sad thing is we are going to see
more of this type of scenario if the economy continues to
struggle. About one year ago LTV began the cycle by
ending benefits to 85,000 retired workers.

The markets attempted to rally off the Jobs numbers but
right at the open the government raised the threat level
for terrorist attack to orange or high. According to John
Ashcroft the government has received "specific and credible"
information regarding the possibility of multiple large
attacks next week involving chemical, biological or
radiological agents. They said there were indications the
terrorists were going to attack unprotected targets like
high rise apartments, office buildings, hotels and/or
places were regular people congregate in large numbers.
This warning about attacks next week was repeated over
and over in the press and the markets appeared to drown
in the negativity. I am actually surprised we did not
close lower as traders went flat for the weekend to avoid
the event risk.

The events were supposed to be staged to match the close
of the Muslim holy days which end on Feb-14th. The Feds
said the amount of communication traffic referring to a
large attack in America had mushroomed to the same levels
seen just before the 9/11 attack.

The markets never had a chance. With the mixed to bad
economic numbers, a continued parade of lowered earnings
guidance, more Iraq worries and now the heightened
terrorist alert. The Dow only dropped -65 points but
closed under several levels of critical support. The
most critical was the close below the 61% retracement
level at 7902. This sets up the Dow for a fall to 7600
or below. It has clearly fallen out of its consolidation
range between 7950-8150. The Nasdaq also broke convincingly
under the 1300 support level and now has a high risk of
retracing to 1200. It was an ugly day all around. The
SOX sank to a four month low of 260, the banking index
$BIX.X fell to a low not seen since October. Hardest hit
was the Russell-2000 which fell -3.6% for the week. This
should send up red flags for everyone. If small caps are
getting smaller then funds and retail investors are
moving to the sidelines in volume. Funds stash cash in
large caps for liquidity in times of stress and they
invest in small caps when expecting better times ahead.
This reversal of fortunes is a serious red flag.

The oversold conditions are increasing but not at an
alarming rate and that alone points to an additional drop.
The Put/Call ratio closed Thursday at 1.53 and Friday at
98. These are high numbers but not off the scale. The
TRIN is chalking up some high numbers as well but far
short of climax bottoms. The VIX edged even closer to
40 on Friday but is well off the 50-56 ranges reached
last July and October. The bottom line is more potholes
ahead.

Next week starts out with a quiet period in regards to
economic reports with nothing material for the first three
days. Thursday and Friday will regain this week's intensity.
Greenspan will take center stage on Tuesday at 10:AM when
he delivers the first of his semiannual reports to congress
on monetary policy. With the recent negative economic news
this is going to be a heavily watched event. He will be
hard pressed to convince the panel the economy is
recovering nicely. He has always warned lawmakers about
budget deficits and the need for fiscal discipline and that
is not what is happening in the current environment. The
general consensus of opinion is that the economy can
withstand a quick 4-6 week war but a longer engagement of
2-3 months would plunge the country into a deep recession.
Panel members will likely quiz him on his impressions.

Mondays have been positive lately as traders who went flat
for safety on Friday reenter on Monday. Assuming nothing
happens over the weekend this trend should continue but
after 10:AM all bets are off. The terrorist warnings are
likely to increase the closer we get to next weekend. The
inspectors will report to the UN again on Friday but while
we don't know the answers already we know the conclusion.
The US is set to push for a resolution calling for military
force to disarm Saddam the following week and that would
actually be bullish. It would mean a coalition to share
expenses and blame and a final global sanction to the war.
That resolution is two weeks away or more and plenty of
time for some major swings in the market. Find your
airsick pills and fasten your seatbelts.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown

"The worst trades are generally when people freeze and
turn to prayer and hope rather than take action."
Robert Mnuchin


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
((new non-tech short play))

Tractor Supply Co. - TSCO - cls: 33.42 chg: -1.86 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Tractor Supply Company operates more than 400 stores in 30 states
and is focused on supply products for the lifestyles needs of
hobby and part-time farmers and ranchers. The Company,
headquartered in Nashville, Tenn., also serves the maintenance
needs of suburban customers, contractors and tradesmen. Tractor
Supply stores are located in the outlying towns in major
metropolitan markets and in rural communities. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
If the stock market could talk, you'd probably hear the same
phrase over and over: "What have you done for me lately?"  Wall
Street is constantly looking forward and pricing in future
developments.  Tractor Supply provides a particularly good
example of this phenomenon.  On January 23rd the company reported
quarterly earnings of 88 cents per share - a full eleven cents
better than analyst expectations.  That's pretty impressive,
especially given the difficult retail environment.  The company
also said that it expects to see a 16% increase in sales for
2003.  This positive news, however, was only good for a one-day
rally in shares of TSCO.  The muted reaction suggests that the
good news had already been priced in.  Tractor Supply has
experienced soaring sales and revenue over the past two years.
This growth is reflected in the company's stock, which exploded
from the $8.00 area in mid-2001.  Investors now appear to be
skeptical about whether the past two years of fundamental growth
are sustainable in a challenging economic climate.  These
concerns were underscored by today's release of the December
consumer credit numbers.  The data showed a contraction for $4.0
billion, versus the consensus expectation for an *increase* of
$3.5 billion.  That's quite a difference!  Consumer credit tends
to be somewhat volatile, but the large decline is nonetheless
disconcerting for the retail sector.  If Americans were reluctant
to charge items during the Holiday season it's likely that
they'll continue to be conservative about their credit spending
habits in the months ahead.

Technically, there are several reasons for our bearish bias on
TSCO.  First and foremost is today's violation of the 200-dma
34.82.  Shares have not traded below that moving average since
January 2001.  This breakdown, which came on no apparent news,
triggered a heavy round of selling as the stock posted a 5.2%
decline on the second-strongest volume of the year.  TSCO has
already been declining precipitously ever since it broke out of a
bearish p-n-f triangle at $38.00.  We suspect that the high-
volume violation of the 200-dma could lead to a test of the
October lows near $28.00.  TSCO is currently in a fast-move
region that was created by the steep rally from those lows.
$28.00 would provide a reasonable downside target for short-term
traders.  We're going to be somewhat more aggressive in targeting
a decline to the July lows at $25.50-$26.00.  This level could be
easily attainable if the major market indexes continue their
losing ways.  Our trigger to enter this hypothetical trade is at
$32.76, one cent under today's low.  If the play is activated
we'll use a stop at $36.42, just above yesterday's high.  Traders
who are more risk-averse could use a stop slightly above today's
high of $35.30.

Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <-- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            01/23/03 (confirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Chubb Corp. - CB - close: 49.44 change: -0.45

WHAT TO WATCH: AIG single-handedly tanked the entire insurance
sector on Tuesday after they announced a $1.8 billion charge to
compensate for a trend of rising claims.  Shareholders of Chubb
endured a double-whammy on the same day when the company reported
a fourth-quarter profit of only 48 cents per share.  Analysts had
been expecting a result of $1.08 per share.  Whoops!  Given the
severity of the earnings miss it's almost surprising that the
stock didn't immediately lose 10%.  But instead, the subsequent
decline has been characterized by a gradual, orderly selling.  On
Friday the stock fell through its last level of underlying
support at $50.00.  This breakdown has raised the possibility
that CB might test the 2000 lows in the $43-$44 region.
Aggressive entries can be evaluated on a move under today's low
of $49.17.




---

Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 16.94 change: +0.10

WHAT TO WATCH: Gold-bugs who are looking for a quick short-term
play might be interested in FCX.  The stock was pressured on
Thursday by news that the company had sold $500 million in
convertible notes.  However, Freeport also said that it would
begin paying a quarterly divided of 9 cents/share.  An analyst at
Bear Stearns noted that the fact that the company "would much
rather pay higher interest than dilute its stock at existing
levels" is a bullish sign.  While the fundamentals are still up
for debate, technicians will note that the stock has found
reliable support at the 50-dma ($16.83) over the past two
sessions.  FCX looks like it could work its way back towards the
$18.50 region if it breaks out of today's Inside Day pattern.
Aggressive traders looking to get in ahead of the crowd could
target entries at current levels, using a stop just under
Thursday's low of $16.75.  One note of caution: The XAU.X is
looking somewhat bearish after closing below its 50-dma for the
first time in several weeks.




---

Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 51.40 change: -0.76

WHAT TO WATCH: Weakness in the banking sector is spreading to related
groups.  The brokerage/dealer index has been hit
particularly hard with a loss of more than 18% over the past
three weeks.  On Friday the XBD.X fell to a new multi-month low
after breaking through support in the 280-283 region.  We think
LEH offers a good way to take advantage of this sector weakness.
The stock has fallen below support at $52 and is currently in the
process of filling in the October 15th gap.  Although the bulls
will probably offer a defense of the $50.00 level (near the
bottom of the gap), LEH does not have any significant support
until the October lows near $42.50.  With both Lehman and the
XBD.X falling in a fast-move region, it looks like the bears are
clearly in control.  Short entries could be targeted on a move
below today's low ($51.19) or a rollover near $52.00.  P-n-f
enthusiasts will be interested to know that LEH gave a triple-
bottom sell signal at $53.00.




---

Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 37.90 change: -0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: IR looks a lot like GWW (currently on our bearish
play list), another stock with ties to the manufacturing sector
that's broken below support.  Shares of Ingersoll Rand spent
roughly two weeks trading in a narrow range between $38.60 and
$40.50.  The first signs of trouble came on Wednesday when the
stock broke below this range.  Today the technical picture
worsened significantly when IR tagged a new multi-month low and
violated support at $38.00.  With the p-n-f chart showing a
double-bottom sell signal and the daily stochastics (5,3,3)
recently reversing from the mid-range, the bears will be looking
to suck IR into the large vacuum region created by the mid-
October rally.  Possible support at $36.00 might be tossed aside
if the market continues to drift lower.  A move below this level
could send the stock plummeting towards the $30.00 region.




---

Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 49.41 change: -1.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of Mohawk gapped lower this morning after
the company lowered its guidance during their Thursday night
earnings report.  The carpet manufacturer now expects Q1 EPS
results of $0.77-$0.82 and a Q2 profit of $1.13-1.21.  Consensus
estimates were for $0.97 and $1.26, respectively.  This news was
more than enough to push MHK below support at $50.00.  With this
level out of the way, the bears might be able to push shares down
to the $44-$45 region.  Watch for a move below today's low
($48.79) to provide a potential entry point.




---

Maytag Corp. - MYG - close: 24.23 change: -0.84

WHAT TO WATCH: Maytag announced its Q4 earnings on Wednesday.
Looking over the results, one analyst commented that the company
had a "quality quarter."  Investors did not appear to share this
opinion - the stock saw little buying interest following the
announcement.  On Friday MYG was hit for a 3.3% loss after the
bears dispatched support at $24.50.  The afternoon release of
consumer credit data that was far worse than expected (see the
new play write-up on TSCO for more details) did not help matters.
Consumers usually purchase big-ticket items such as washers and
dryers on credit, not cash.  A growing tendency to avoid using
credit could severely hamper Maytag's business.  Technically, MYG
looks a lot like many of the other bearish ideas on tonight's
Watchlist.  The stock is in danger of retracing the sharp bounce
from the October lows near $19.00.  Watch for a continued
weakness from current levels to provide bearish confirmation.
The point-and-figure chart is showing a double-bottom sell
signal.




---

Sony Corp. - SNE - close: 38.58 change: -0.12

WHAT TO WATCH: The U.S. Dollar (DX00y) is mired in a pronounced
downtrend that began in late-November.  This action in the
currency market is starting to eat away at shares of Sony.  The
Japanese consumer electronics behemoth stands to be negatively
effected by this development because a strong Yen and weak Dollar
make its imports become more expensive overseas.   SNE recently
broke key support at $40.00, thus creating a double-bottom sell
signal on the p-n-f chart.  The next stop could be the 2001 lows
near $33.00.  Note that because SNE is an ADR, shares tend to gap
at the beginning of the U.S. trading day.





------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

UN - Unilever still looks promising for long-term traders.  The
stock hit another relative low today and does not have any clear
support until the $48.00 area.

IBM - Big Blue has thus far managed to hold above its converging
100-day and 200-day moving averages.  A breakdown below these
levels, using a move under the December low of $75.60 for
downside confirmation, might yield a bearish action point.  The
p-n-f chart is showing a double-bottom sell signal.

MWD - Another weak brokerage stock.  MWD is trading on its
bullish support trend (p-n-f chart) after falling below bar chart
support at $36.00.  A complete retracement of the rapid October
gains would put MWD at $28.80.

HRB - HRB showed up on our Watch List last week as a possible
bearish play after it fell to support at $37.00.  This level was
completely abandoned on Friday.  The next area of support on the
daily chart is at $30.00, while the p-n-f chart shows a short-
term bullish support trend at $32.00.

AEP - This utility stock hasn't been able to halt its recent
decline.  As a matter of fact, the downtrend is accelerating.
There's psychological support at $20.00, but no technical support
until $18.00.

STT - Weakness in the BIX.X banking index is pressuring STT.  The
stock has fallen below support at $38.00 and looks to be headed
for the $32-$34 area.  Bears will now be looking for the stock to
break under the relative low of $36.84.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Confirmation
by Steven Price

It's beginning to look like the technical breakdowns we saw on
Thursday were for real.  Thursday's trading took us briefly out
of the range that we've traded in for the last week and a half,
giving us some sell signals, but by the end of the day, we were
back in the range.  Not anymore.

This morning started out positive following better than expected
jobs data, giving the impression that we'd see more of the same
range bound activity that has been staple of recent sessions.
For the second day in a row however, Dow 8000 put a lid on the
market and left us squarely in the 7000s by the end of the day.
Over the past several days I've discussed the point and figure
chart patterns that first signaled indecision with almost daily
reversals from bearish columns of "O" to bullish columns of "X"
each time giving contrarian indications as to which way a trader
should enter.  In Thursday's column I identified the triple
bottom sell signals we got intraday in the Dow, SPX and OEX.
However, the SPX was the only index to give us yet another move
below that triple bottom sell signal, reducing the possibility of
a bear trap.  Today, we got not only additional confirmation with
the Dow and OEX also adding another box to the downside, but also
closing levels beneath the bottom of last week's support levels.
After forming a rectangular consolidation pattern over the
previous eight to nine sessions, the bottom of that pattern
should theoretically now act as resistance, keeping a lid on
further rallies and providing short entry points at rally
failures.

The other important level that finally gave way today was the
1300 support level in the Nasdaq Composite (COMP).  The COMP has
been ratcheting down over the past couple of weeks, first holding
support at the 1319 level, which was the pullback level in early
November, following what appears to be the left shoulder of a
head and shoulders pattern.  After breaking down below that
level, it then held steady at 1300, with recent closes of 1306,
1306, 1301 and 1301 on four of the last five sessions.  It did
dip below that level intraday, but always found enough dip buyers
to maintain closing support.  That was not the case today, as it
dropped almost 20 points to close at 1282, below even the
intraday dips of recent sessions.  If the major indices are going
to get rolling downhill, a breakdown in the COMP was a necessary
component of any slide. Now that the 1300 level has been cracked,
the next significant support levels below appear to be 1251 and
1200.  In October, we bounced off 1100, but the bears have a
little work cut out for them before reaching that plateau.  There
was a dip on October 29 down to 1279, where the COMP got a bounce
from its 50-dma.  That 50-dma was breached a few weeks ago, but
we did bounce from about the same horizontal level today. While a
one-day support level does not seem significant in the grand
scheme, we can't argue with what we saw today and conservative
bears may want to wait to enter positions for a more decisive
move below that October 29 low.

The bullish percent of the COMP has also reversed, catching up to
the Dow, OEX, SPX and NDX.  The sell signal does not officially
come until 1100, but we are in a sinking column of "O" and by the
time we get down to 1100, we may miss an awfully big bearish
opportunity. The NDX gave its sell signal at 960 today, which for
those readers following the pivot analysis in the Index Trader
Wrap also coincides with a breakdown below the weekly and daily
S1 levels. With the bullish percents all heading lower, along
with decisive sell signals in the broader indices, the stars
certainly seem aligned for shorts. Now that we've looked at the
technical picture, we still have to consider the world around us.

A national security alert certainly did nothing to help matters,
with the government raising the national terror threat level from
yellow to orange.  This was only the second time we've hit that
level since the September 11 attacks and the markets reflected an
increased level of fear. Attorney General John Ashcroft said,
"This decision for an increased threat designation condition is
based on specific intelligence received and analyzed by the full
intelligence community... This information has been corroborated
by multiple sources."  The security alert throws up a red flag
for any pattern we see, as other geo-political events have over
the past few weeks.  We are left wondering what kind of market
action we would have seen if not for that alert.  After all, we
did head higher to start the day.  If Saddam Hussein heads into
exile, will we get a big rally as the threat of immediate war
suddenly ends.

Will that rally be a short entry point before traders re-focus on
the economy?  Will it relieve much of the uncertainty surrounding
the market drop, leading to a run at the January or December
highs? After all, the possibility of war has been hanging over
the market since last summer. Oil prices are likely to drop in
that scenario, reducing the cost of doing business for almost
every company.  While that possibility seems remote, it does not
appear Hussein can win a war against either a U.N. coalition, or
just the U.S. if that ends up being the case.  Certainly he has
considered the possibility in spite of all the tough talk. My
point is that it is difficult to determine just how much of what
we are seeing is economy related and just how much difference the
geo-political issues are factoring into both the economy and
traders' behavior.   I haven't even begun to analyze North Korea
(which Bill Clinton recently said posed a much larger threat than
Iraq).  We need to be nimble and realize that any position we
have on can is subject to a big gap in the opposite direction
than we are playing.  I've certainly pointed out these risks
before, but now that the market has given us multiple signs of a
breakdown, bears are likely feeling their oats and considering
upping the stakes.  That is certainly what my emotions are
telling me. Keep it in perspective and know the risks, but most
importantly, don't play with anything you're not willing to
subject to these kinds of risks.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  7864

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8009
 50-dma: 8467
200-dma: 8746

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  829

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  848
 50-dma:  893
200-dma:  926

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     :  957

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  982
 50-dma: 1032
200-dma: 1027
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  The SOX just about confirmed
the breakdown in the Nasdaq Composite and NDX.  The SOX bottomed
out at 261, getting a bounce following the AMAT warning on
January 31. It has held steady above that level, bucking the
trend in the broader markets. That's not to say it hasn't slowly
worked its way down, it has just moved much more slowly than
traders are used to seeing.  Nevertheless, it cracked 260 to the
downside briefly today, but watching this sector has been akin to
watching paint dry.  Still, without a failure in this group, we
are unlikely to see the rest of the tech sector gain downside
speed.  Look for a decisive move below 260 to end up testing
support in the 235-240 range. The COMP is below 1300 and the NDX
below 960 and if we can get some action in the chips, bears
should be gleaming.

52-week High: 641
52-week Low : 209
Current:      260

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 294
 50-dma: 310
200-dma: 344
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

This is the one piece of the puzzle that seems to indicate we may
not yet be in store for an immediate drop.  At least that was the
indication today.  The VIX has found sellers at the 40% level for
the second straight day as the market has dropped.  Today it
topped out at 39.79, after testing 39.64 on Thursday.  It could
be weekend sellers attempting to collect a higher daily decay
level at the higher VIX, or it could be institutions taking
advantage of a temporary dip in the markets to sell premium.
Either way, it indicates that there are sellers on the spikes,
rather than panic covering of short option positions in case of a
continued market drop.  If the VIX breaks through 40 decisively,
look for a continued drop in equities, however, a VIX up against
resistance could indicate the rubber band is simply stretched and
ready for a pullback as the market bounces. For an illustration
of the concept, see Ask the Analyst from January 26.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 38.80 +0.38
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 48.26 -0.36
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.94        479,551       449,323
Equity Only    0.70        344,830       241,263
OEX            1.02         29,034        29,553
QQQ            2.13         27,171        57,764
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          43.9    - 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    38.0    - 5     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   20.0    - 7     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       42.0    - 2     Bull Correction
S&P 100       38.0    - 2     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.60
10-Day Arms Index  1.48
21-Day Arms Index  1.38
55-Day Arms Index  1.33

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE        890          1960
NASDAQ     1034          2043

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        65              131
NASDAQ      59              121

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,472
NASDAQ     1,214
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/04/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials reduced long positions by 8,000 contracts and shorts
by 3,000, for a net increase of 5,000 shorts.  Small traders
increased long and short positions by about 8,000 contracts,
keeping the net relatively unchanged.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/14/03      411,052   453,164   (42,112)   (4.9%)
01/21/03      415,028   456,885   (41,857)   (4.8%)
01/28/03      422,232   468,586   (46,354)   (5.2%)
02/04/03      414,543   465,678   (51,135)   (5.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03      144,182    92,358    51,824     21.9%
01/23/03      148,227    95,356    52,871     21.7%
01/28/03      142,734    85,567    57,167     25.0%
02/04/03      151,174    93,439    57,735     23.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials increased long positions by approximately 2,000
contracts and shorts by 1,600.  Small traders increased short
positions by 1,000 contracts, leaving the long side close to
unchanged.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03       38,057     45,060   ( 7,003) ( 8.4%)
01/23/03       37,174     49,789   (12,615) (14.5%)
01/28/03       37,955     49,321   (11,366) (13.0%)
02/04/03       40,934     50,992   (10,058) (10.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03       20,757     8,320    12,437    42.8%
01/23/03       25,852     6,764    19,088    58.5%
01/28/03       25,814     7,576    18,238    54.6%
02/04/03       25,573     8,648    16,925    49.5)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased long positions by 1,500 contracts, while
reducing shorts slightly.  Small traders increased shorts by
1,600, while seeing a slight reduction to the long side.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03       17,804    12,427    5,377      17.8%
01/23/03       16,901    11,031    5,870      21.0%
01/28/03       16,013    11,574    4,439      16.1%
02/04/03       17,596    11,232    6,364      22.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/14/03        4,552     7,697    (3,145)   (25.7%)
01/23/03        5,120     8,282    (3,162)   (23.6%)
01/28/03        4,838     7,836    (2,998)   (23.7%)
02/04/03        4,583     9,424    (4,841)   (34.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-07-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  EBAY
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCMP

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     TSCO
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD, GWW, JWN

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  CYTC
  Bearish Play Updates:  IDPH



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 72.37 change: -0.79 stop: *text*

The weakening tech sector continues to eat away at EBAY's January
gains.  The stock tagged a new relative low today after spending
the previous three sessions in the $72-$75 range.  A round of
buying during the final hour erased some of the intraday losses,
ultimately leading to a 1.0% loss.  This was slightly better than
the NASDAQ's 1.4% decline.  This relative strength might
partially be attributed to a favorable report regarding EBAY's
used auto sales in the Wall Street Journal.  However, if the
recent selling action continues next week it'll only be a matter
of time before EBAY tests its rising 50-dma at $71.16.  You'll
recall that we've set a downside entry strategy to take advantage
of a rebound from that moving average.

Tonight we're making some modifications to our entry points.  To
begin with, we've removed our upside trigger at $75.51.  While
this might be a reasonable action point if EBAY manages to bounce
back from current levels, we're no longer looking to capture a
breakout.  Secondly, we've set the following stipulations for our
pullback strategy: If EBAY trades at or below $71.30, we'll set
an entry trigger at $71.75.  This will ensure that we don't
active the play until the stock actually rebounds from the 50-
dma.  If we're triggered we'll use a stop at $69.94.  As we
mentioned earlier, our upside target for this "buy the dip" entry
will be the $75-$76 region.  While we're being somewhat
aggressive in attempting to call a short-term bottom, our stop-
loss should keep potential losses to a bearable minimum.  If EBAY
falls below the 50-dma without rebounding we'll probably drop the
play, un-triggered.

Picked on February xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/16/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cabot Micro. - CCMP - cls: 41.97 chg: -1.17 stop: 45.36 *new*

Yesterday we talked about how the semiconductor index seemed to
be headed towards support at 260.  The SOX.X closed just above
that level today after setting a multi-month low of 259.43. Not
one to be left behind, CCMP also traded a new low after the bulls
succumbed to heavy selling pressure early in the session.  This
is an encouraging development for our short play.  Previously
this week CCMP had bounced around in the $42.50-$45.25 range
while trading in a somewhat directionless fashion.  Now that
shares have broken to new lows, it looks like a test of
psychological support at $40.00 could be just around the corner.
But with the daily chart showing no significant support until the
$33-$35 region, we think CCMP could really pick up downside
momentum if the SOX.X continues to descend.  Our stop-loss has
been snugged down to $45.36, two cents over the descending 200-
dma.  New entries can be evaluated on a move under today's low of
$41.89.

Picked on January 31st at $43.70
Results since picked:      +1.73
Earnings Date           01/23/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Tractor Supply Co. - TSCO - cls: 33.42 chg: -1.86 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Tractor Supply Company operates more than 400 stores in 30 states
and is focused on supply products for the lifestyles needs of
hobby and part-time farmers and ranchers. The Company,
headquartered in Nashville, Tenn., also serves the maintenance
needs of suburban customers, contractors and tradesmen. Tractor
Supply stores are located in the outlying towns in major
metropolitan markets and in rural communities. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
If the stock market could talk, you'd probably hear the same
phrase over and over: "What have you done for me lately?"  Wall
Street is constantly looking forward and pricing in future
developments.  Tractor Supply provides a particularly good
example of this phenomenon.  On January 23rd the company reported
quarterly earnings of 88 cents per share - a full eleven cents
better than analyst expectations.  That's pretty impressive,
especially given the difficult retail environment.  The company
also said that it expects to see a 16% increase in sales for
2003.  This positive news, however, was only good for a one-day
rally in shares of TSCO.  The muted reaction suggests that the
good news had already been priced in.  Tractor Supply has
experienced soaring sales and revenue over the past two years.
This growth is reflected in the company's stock, which exploded
from the $8.00 area in mid-2001.  Investors now appear to be
skeptical about whether the past two years of fundamental growth
are sustainable in a challenging economic climate.  These
concerns were underscored by today's release of the December
consumer credit numbers.  The data showed a contraction for $4.0
billion, versus the consensus expectation for an *increase* of
$3.5 billion.  That's quite a difference!  Consumer credit tends
to be somewhat volatile, but the large decline is nonetheless
disconcerting for the retail sector.  If Americans were reluctant
to charge items during the Holiday season it's likely that
they'll continue to be conservative about their credit spending
habits in the months ahead.

Technically, there are several reasons for our bearish bias on
TSCO.  First and foremost is today's violation of the 200-dma
34.82.  Shares have not traded below that moving average since
January 2001.  This breakdown, which came on no apparent news,
triggered a heavy round of selling as the stock posted a 5.2%
decline on the second-strongest volume of the year.  TSCO has
already been declining precipitously ever since it broke out of a
bearish p-n-f triangle at $38.00.  We suspect that the high-
volume violation of the 200-dma could lead to a test of the
October lows near $28.00.  TSCO is currently in a fast-move
region that was created by the steep rally from those lows.
$28.00 would provide a reasonable downside target for short-term
traders.  We're going to be somewhat more aggressive in targeting
a decline to the July lows at $25.50-$26.00.  This level could be
easily attainable if the major market indexes continue their
losing ways.  Our trigger to enter this hypothetical trade is at
$32.76, one cent under today's low.  If the play is activated
we'll use a stop at $36.42, just above yesterday's high.  Traders
who are more risk-averse could use a stop slightly above today's
high of $35.30.

Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <-- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            01/23/03 (confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 40.91 change: -0.33 stop: 42.01 *new*

The recent tendency for APD to outperform the Dow Jones was not
displayed on Friday.  Shares continued to move with the
Industrials, but this time the stock mirrored the index's
percentage loss.  It's also encouraging to see that APD failed
once again to move above $42.00 and the descending 21-dma at
$41.90.  Based on this action, we've inched our stop down to
$42.01.  It'll probably take a strong market rebound to push Air
Products above resistance.  The descending daily stochastics
(5,3,3) are hinting at further weakness. On the other hand, the
bears have their work cut out for them as well.  Scanning through
hundreds of charts today we noticed several dozen stocks that
were trading below support.  Meanwhile, APD remains above support
at $40.00.  Another rebound from this level would probably lead
us to drop the play for a small loss.  We are not recommending
new entries at this time.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      -1.07
Earnings Date           01/22/03 (confirmed)




---

Grainger Inc. - GWW - close: 44.90 change: -1.10 stop: 48.06

That's a heckuva ugly red candle on the daily chart.  Grainger,
already in the midst of a prolonged downtrend, did not respond
very well to another negative session in the equity market.  The
stock encountered heavy selling shortly after it gapped higher
with the major indexes.  Our action trigger at $45.59 was reached
within the first hour of trading.  The rest of the day was
characterized by a steady decline that took GWW to new multi-
month lows.  The lack of underlying support seems to be scaring
away any potential buyers; shares finished near the worst levels
of the day and suffered a 2.3% loss.  The Dow Jones, by way of
comparison, gave back less than one percent.  This bodes well for
a continued decline next week.  New entries could be considered
on further weakness from current levels, but remember that GWW
has potential support at $44.00.  A move below this level would
pave the way for a possible test of the October lows.  Our stop
for this play is set at $48.06.  More conservative traders could
use a stop just above Wednesday's high of $47.25.  On a final
note, today's volume was somewhat light at 224K shares.  This
mirrored a similar lack of volume in the overall market.  We'd
like to see that number pick up as GWW continues lower.

Picked on February 7th at $45.59
Results since picked:      +0.69
Earnings Date           01/29/03 (confirmed)





---

Nordstrom Inc - JWN - cls: 16.85 chg: -0.49 stop: 18.01 *new*

Lookin' good!  On Thursday a negative reaction to Nordstrom's
worse-than-expected January sales data sent the stock to new
relative lows.  This morning JWN managed to tick slightly higher
with the market before rolling over from yesterday's intraday
resistance at $17.50.  Nimble traders who used this failed rally
as an entry point were rewarded with a steady decline throughout
the session.  Shares filled in the remainder of the October 11th
gap, fell below whole-number support at $17.00, and finished with
a 2.8% loss.  This was notably worse than the 0.92% decline
posted by the RLX.X retail index.  With no fresh news in
Nordstrom, it looks like the technical weakness is really coming
home to roost.  In the original write-up for this play we
outlined a downside target in the $15.50-$16.00 region.  Given
the recent steep decline, we suspect that shares may find some
support at $16.00.  Our official exit price has been set just
above that level at $16.06.  This would represent a gain of
slightly more than 10% from our entry point.  Longer-term or more
aggressive traders could aim for a decline to the $15.00-$15.50
area.  If JWN finds some buyers next week we'll be looking for
continued resistance at $17.50.  Another rollover from this level
might provide an entry point for aggressive traders.  The PI
newsletter is currently up 6.2% in this hypothetical trade.  Our
stop has been inched down to $18.01, three cents above break-
even.  Those who are looking to protect a small gain could use a
stop slightly above $17.50.

Picked on January 27th at $17.98
Results since picked:      -1.13
Earnings Date           02/20/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cytyc Corp. - CYTC - close: 11.79 change: +0.04 stop:*see below*

Traders with a bullish bias for CYTC can probably be encouraged
by the relative strength displayed in the stock today.  Shares
fell to the $11.60 area due to broader market weakness but
managed a last hour rebound off its low heading into the weekend.
This is not a sign of investors bailing out despite the ominous
performances of major indices.  However, we are still not willing
to jump the gun and go long until CYTC can prove it's strength by
trading above the $12.11 mark.  If we are triggered, we'll start
the play with a stop at $11.20 but more conservative traders
looking to reduce exposure might want to consider a stop under
today's low.

Picked on February xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/28/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 30.86 change: -0.15 stop: *text*

There was some interesting news very early this morning for IDPH.
A Danish biotech firm, Genmab A/S said that its HuMax-CD20
antibody appeared to kill tumor cells that are resistant to
rituximab.  "In preclinical testing, HuMax-CD20 killed tumor
cells from a number of cancer patients..." with HuMax-CD20
killing up to 50% of the tumors compared to 5% for rituximab.
How does this relate to IDPH?  IDPH markets rituximab in the U.S.
Odds are that this new antibody will have a negative affect on
sales of rituximab.  Despite the potentially negative news shares
of IDPH remained above support of $30.00.  The trend is still
bearish and given the ominous tones cast by the broader indices
we could see a market breakdown soon.  A big down day may be the
catalyst bears need to get shareholders to give up on IDPH and
break the $30 barrier.  Our trigger to go short is $29.99.  If we
are triggered our initial stop loss will be $32.82.  Keep an eye
on the Biotech Index (BTK).  If it breaks the 324 level, that may
be the signal bears are looking for to really begin to apply
pressure to IDPH.

Picked on February xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/30/03 (confirmed)







=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 02-07-2003
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of February 10th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==========================================
Market Watch for the week of February 10th
==========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

BAB    British Airways       Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell      N/A
CHD    Church & Dwight Co    Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell     0.35
EOC    Empresa Nac Elect     Mon, Feb 10  -----N/A-----        N/A
ETM    Entercom Comm         Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell     0.33
EVC    Entravision Comm Corp Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell     -0.03
RE     Everest Re Group, Ltd Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      1.54
FDG    Fording Inc.          Mon, Feb 10  -----N/A-----        N/A
LF     LeapFrog Ent Inc.     Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      0.39
LRY    Liberty Property Trst Mon, Feb 10  -----N/A-----       0.83
LNCR   Lincare Holdings      Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      0.46
MAR    Marriott Intl         Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell     0.54
MCY    Mercury General       Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell     0.59
MET    MetLife Inc.          Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      0.64
NHY    Norsk Hydro           Mon, Feb 10  -----N/A-----       1.19
ORH    Odyssey Re Holdings   Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      0.34
PRE    PartnerRe Ltd.        Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      1.47
RCII   Rent-A-Center         Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      1.24
SWFT   Swift Transportation  Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell     0.23
UDR    Un Dom Realty Trust   Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      0.40
VAL    Valspar               Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell     0.30
BER    W.R. Berkley          Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      0.89
WLP    WellPoint Hlth Ntwk   Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      1.15
WEC    Wisconsin Energy Corp Mon, Feb 10  Before the Bell     0.70
YUM    Yum! Brands, Inc.     Mon, Feb 10  After the Bell      0.55


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AET    Aetna Inc.            Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.59
AKZOY  Akzo Nobel N.V.       Tue, Feb 11  During the Market    N/A
AEE    Ameren Corporation    Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.21
AIV    Aptmnt Invest Mana    Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      1.06
AMAT   Applied Materials     Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.02
BBI    Blockbuster Inc.      Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----       0.19
BP     Bp PLC                Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.71
CVC    Cablevision Systems   Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell    -0.40
CMX    CareMark Rx, Inc.     Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----       0.33
CNT    CENTERPOINT PPTYS TR  Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      1.03
CLX    Clorox                Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----       0.35
CUZ    COUSINS PPTYS INC     Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.55
DE     Deere & Company       Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.15
DTE    DTE Energy Company    Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      1.26
EXPD   Expeditors Intl WA    Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.28
FDP    Frsh Del Mnte Produce Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.34
GALN   Galen Holdings PLC    Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.24
GG     Goldcorp              Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.08
INET   Instinet Group Inco   Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell      N/A
INMRY  Instrumentarium       Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell      N/A
IPCR   IPC Holdings          Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.99
LZB    La-Z-Boy Inc.         Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.40
LNC    Lincoln National      Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----       0.58
NTAP   Network Appliance     Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.06
NRD    NORANDA INC           Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell      N/A
POM    Pepco Holdings, Inc.  Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.29
PER    Perot Systems         Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.17
PRU    Prudential Financial  Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.45
PUB    PUBLICIS Groupe SA    Tue, Feb 11  During the Market    N/A
ROIAK  Radio One             Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----       0.05
PHG    Royal Philips Elec    Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----        N/A
IMI    SanPaolo IMI SpA      Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----        N/A
SIAL   Sigma-Aldrich Corp    Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      0.56
SRCL   Stericycle            Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----       0.28
SWMAY  Swedish Match         Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell      N/A
TLTOB  Tele2 AB              Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell      N/A
VFC    VF                    Tue, Feb 11  Before the Bell     0.75
WON    Westwood One          Tue, Feb 11  -----N/A-----       0.31
XL  XL Capital Ltd           Tue, Feb 11  After the Bell      1.79


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AAP    Advance Auto Parts    Wed, Feb 12  -----N/A-----       0.42
AOC    Aon Corporation       Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.54
APPB   Applebee's Intl       Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.36
CSG    Cadbury Schweppes     Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     N/A
CCJ    Cameco                Wed, Feb 12  -----N/A-----        N/A
CTSH   Cognizant Tech Solut  Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.47
COX    Cox Communications    Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell    -0.02
DCN    Dana                  Wed, Feb 12  -----N/A-----       0.23
ELUX   Electrolux Ab         Wed, Feb 12  -----N/A-----       0.75
FRT    Fed Rlty Invstmnt TrstWed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.71
FR     First Indl Rlty Trust Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.92
FST    Forest Oil Corp       Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.26
FOX    Fox Entertainment Grp Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.28
GRMN   Garmin Ltd.           Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.35
GSK    GlaxoSmithKline       Wed, Feb 12  -----N/A-----       0.62
HNT    Health Net, Inc.      Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.60
HRH    Hilb, Rogal Hamilton  Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.46
RX     IMS Health            Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.28
LAMR   LAMAR ADVERTISING CO  Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell     -0.09
TVL    LIN TV Corp.          Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.24
MDT    Medtronic Inc.        Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell     0.35
MME    Mid Atl Med Serv      Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.57
MCL  Moore Corporation Ltd.  Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.17
NOI  National Oilwell        Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.22
OCR  Omnicare                Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.41
PSD  Puget Sound Energy      Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.51
STR  Questar.com             Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.53
SCG  SCANA                   Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.59
SPW  SPX                     Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     1.30
SLF  Sun Lf Finl Serv Can    Wed, Feb 12  -----N/A-----       0.38
TFX  Teleflex, Incorporated  Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.81
KO   The Coca-Cola Company   Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.40
FAF  The First Am Corp       Wed, Feb 12  Before the Bell     0.90
NWS  The News Corp Limited   Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.23
TMS  Thomson                 Wed, Feb 12  02:00 am ET          N/A
TMPW  TMP Worldwide Inc.     Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.00
WFMI  Whole Foods Market     Wed, Feb 12  After the Bell      0.40
ZBRA  Zebra Technologies     Wed, Feb 12  -----N/A-----       0.65


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ABN    ABN Amro Holdings     Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell      N/A
AES    AES Corporation       Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.00
ALD    Allied Capital Corp   Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.49
AW     Allied Waste Ind      Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.24
AIG    American Intl Group   Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.21
ADI    Analog Devices Inc.   Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.16
BHI    Baker Hughes Incorp   Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.25
BCS    Barclays Bank PLC     Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----        N/A
ABX    Barrick Gold          Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.09
BTY    BT Group PLC          Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell      N/A
CPN    Calpine Corporation   Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.08
CPB    Campbell Soup         Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.55
CZ     Celanese AG           Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.59
CNP    CenterPoint Energy    Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell    -0.02
CNA    CNA Financial Corp    Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.47
DVA    DaVita                Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.51
DF     Dean Foods            Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.74
DELL   Dell Computer Corp    Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.23
FE     FirstEnergy           Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.44
DA     Groupe Danone         Thu, Feb 13  During the Market   0.56
HAS    Hasbro, Inc.          Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.38
HRL    Hormel Foods Corp     Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.37
INTU   Intuit                Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.57
IVGN   Invitrogen Corp       Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.41
KIM    Kimco Realty          Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.78
LTR    Loews Corp.           Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     1.25
MAC    Macerich Co           Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       1.02
MAS    Masco                 Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.37
NFX    Newfield Exploration  Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.63
NXY    Nexen                 Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----        N/A
NVDA   NVIDIA Corporation    Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.06
ODP    Office Depot Inc.     Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.21
OSI    Outback Steakhouse    Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.52
PDS    Precision Drllng Corp Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.11
SCIO   Scios                 Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell    -0.52
SBL    Symbol Technologies   Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.08
TELN   Telenor Asa           Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----        N/A
MAY    The May Depart Store  Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       1.21
TRH    Transatlantic Holding Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.39
TRZ    Trizec Properties,    Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.46
UBB    Unibanco              Thu, Feb 13  -----N/A-----       0.62
UN     Unilever N.V.         Thu, Feb 13  Before the Bell     0.91
UL     Unilever PLC          Thu, Feb 13  02:00 am ET         0.54
UHS    Universal Health Serv Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.66
WC     WellChoice, Inc.      Thu, Feb 13  After the Bell      0.48


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

BNN    Brascan Corporation   Fri, Feb 14  Before the Bell      N/A
BSY    British Sky Brdcstng  Fri, Feb 14  -----N/A-----        N/A
CCH    Coca-Cola Hell Btlng  Fri, Feb 14  Before the Bell      N/A
SJM    J. M. Smucker Company Fri, Feb 14  Before the Bell     0.53
KEG    Key Energy Services   Fri, Feb 14  Before the Bell     0.01
LYG    Lloyds TSB Group      Fri, Feb 14  12:00 pm ET          N/A
MTA    MATAV                 Fri, Feb 14  10:00 am ET          N/A
NAV    Navistar Intl         Fri, Feb 14  Before the Bell    -1.49
RG     Rogers Communications Fri, Feb 14  Before the Bell      N/A
RCN    Rogers Wireless Comm  Fri, Feb 14  -----N/A-----      -0.29
SXT  Sensient Tech Corp      Fri, Feb 14  -----N/A-----       0.45
TI     Telecom Italia        Fri, Feb 14  -----N/A-----        N/A
TU     TELUS                 Fri, Feb 14  -----N/A-----        N/A


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

CBI     ChicagoBridge             2:1      Feb. 13th   Feb. 14th
LCI     Lannett Co.               3:2      Feb. 14th   Feb. 17th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Earnings season isn't quite finished.  Several high-profile
companies will be announcing their quarterly results next
week, including AMAT, NVDA, DELL, and KO.  Also look for
some key economic reports on Thursday and Friday.
==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 02/10/02
----------------
None


Tuesday, 02/11/02
-----------------
None


Wednesday, 02/12/02
-------------------
None


Thursday, 02/13/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   02/08  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     391K
Retail Sales (BB)       Jan  Forecast:  -0.5%  Previous:     1.2%
Retail Sales ex-auto(BB)Jan  Forecast:   0.5%  Previous:     0.0%
Export Prices ex-ag.(BB)Jan  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:    -0.1%
Import Prices ex-oil(BB)Jan  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     0.1%


Friday, 02/14/02
----------------
Business Inventories(BB)Dec  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.2%
Industrial Producton(DM)Jan  Forecast:   0.4%  Previous:    -0.2%
Capacity Utilization(DM)Jan  Forecast:  75.6%  Previous:    75.4%
Mich Sentiment-Prel.(DM)Feb  Forecast:   82.2  Previous:     82.4


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CVH     Coventry Health            26.30     +0.83

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change

ALN     Allen Telecom             13.15     +1.25
DIGE    Digene Corp               15.29     +1.13

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BVF     Biovail Corp               31.15     +2.65
CTSH    Cognizant Tech.            65.08     +2.60
PRX     Pharmaceuitical Resources  33.00     +2.11

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ROST    Ross Stores                36.77     -1.92
CDWC    CDW Computer Centers       42.57     -1.23
MHK     Mohawk Industries          49.41     -1.29
PIXR    Pixar                      51.70     -2.72
BRL     Barr Labs                  72.30     -1.25

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ABC     Amerisourcebergen          56.58     -1.16
CEDC    Central European Dist.     26.20     -2.80




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