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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 02/11/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 02-11-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      It Is All About Iraq
Market Sentiment: Don't Look Down
Play-of-the-Day:  A Healthy Uptrend

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U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      02-11-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     7843.11 - 77.00  7985.52  7806.50 1.52 bln   1315/1899
NASDAQ   1295.51 -  1.17  1315.04  1385.77 1.27 bln   1503/1771
S&P 100   418.58 -  3.45   425.96   416.26   Totals   2818/3670
S&P 500   829.91 -  6.76   843.02   825.09
W5000    7873.29 - 55.83  7992.37  7835.73
RUS 2000  359.95 -  2.14   363.58   357.96
DJ TRANS 2128.07 - 16.67  2160.45  2121.59
VIX        37.35 -  0.35    38.05    35.53
VXN        46.90 -  0.41    47.58    46.07
Total Volume 2,998M
Total UpVol  1,226M
Total DnVol  1,668M
52wk Highs  129
52wk Lows   266
TRIN       1.61
PUT/CALL    .87
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

It Is All About Iraq

That was the main message from Alan Greenspan today when he
testified before congress in his regular semiannual meeting.
At the same time Collin Powell was testifying that Bin Laden
was alive and well and calling for renewed attacks on the US.
Traders unsure which way to jump were more concerned with
getting a desk near the fire escape than pushing the Dow back
over 8000.

Dow Chart - 240 min


Nasdaq Chart - 60 min


The morning started off well despite some negative news.
Goldman Sachs warned that IT spending for 2003 could fall
as much as -10% compared with previous estimates of minor
gains. Merrill Lynch warned that inadequate capital funding
will persist and push the technology sector recovery into
2004 or even 2005. Both companies said sales and profit
outlooks for 2003 were dismal. Despite the dismal forecasts
Abbey Cohen, Goldmans chief investment officer, is still
forecasting Dow 10800 for 2003. That would be a +36% gain.
Despite these two independent studies the Nasdaq held the
market up all day and finished down only -1.17 for the day.

QCOM shocked traders this morning with news that they would
be paying a quarterly dividend of five cents and buy back
$1 billion in stock. The tech company bounced on the news
but investors are fickle and after gaining +1.25 at the open
it sold off to flat by the close.

Instinet, INET, warned that lower trading volume was hurting
them and other electronic exchanges. INET posted a loss of
-$735 million for all of 2002. Even ESPD warned that the
outlook for bond trading for 2003 was lower than expected.
The ESPD warning was especially meaningful since bonds have
been such a favorite investment vehicle recently. Times are
tough all over and that should come as no surprise.

Of course the publisher of the worlds most successful books
should not be in trouble, right? Not so it appears. Scholastic,
SCHL, publisher of the Harry Potter series, warned that sales
of its other products were slowing due to budget cutbacks and
the weak economy. The last Potter book sold out in 48 hours
and they plan on printing 6.8 million of the fifth book this
year.

The Greenspan testimony drew traders attention for a couple
hours and he did try to paint a balanced picture. His main
message was that it is all about Iraq and once Iraq was over
the economy was primed to recovery quickly. Imagine that!
Even Alan was able to use the Iraq ate my economy excuse.
In another comment that we will likely hear over and over
he said "deficits do matter" and every democrat in the room
was writing furiously I bet. Greenspan was attacked outright
by one member and told he was the cause of the current
economic slump due to his mismanagement of the rate cut
policy and should quit.

Later in the day Collin Powell testified that Osama had
released a new tape and quoted from a transcript. Arabic TV
denied there was a tape and it appeared the US had intercepted
it on the transmission to them. Later at 3:PM the tape was
played on TV after the earlier denial was retracted. Don't
you think it was nice of the local networks to play the tape
for all those terrorists in the US waiting for the signal
to attack? It has been proven in the past that major attacks
have come within days/weeks of a tape release. Why give him
a free communications outlet? At least make the bad guys
struggle a little bit please! There was a lot of support
Iraq appeals and suggested that suicide bombers attack the
US if Iraq was attacked.

As if Greenspan and Bin Laden was not enough to confuse the
issue, Russian prime minister Putin warned the US that a
unilateral attack on Iraq would be a "grave error" and he
also threatened to veto any UN resolution calling for force.
Now that is a real problem. We have France and Germany already
lined up against us but now Russia is "threatening" us. This
does not look good for the offensive team. The market was
poised to rebound from the day's lows when the Putin remarks
were aired and that pushed it down once again.

After the bell AMAT announced earnings and missed the street
estimates by two cents. They warned that new orders had fallen
-35% and they were facing tough times ahead until capital
spending returned. They said orders in the current quarter
would be only slightly better than last and declined to give
any estimates. AMAT had warned two weeks ago so the outcome
was not a surprise. They still traded down in after hours.

Thursday Dell reports earnings and is widely expected to
warn about the rest of the year. The Dell COO said they were
seeing softer corporate spending and that would match the
CSCO warning from last week. The Dell conference call will
be well attended but unless they raise guidance I doubt it
will be anything we have not already heard.

Don't look now but yesterday's bullishness evaporated and
the outlook is not bright. Oil rose to $35.44 today as the
Iraq problem becomes more complicated. Rising oil and political
tension along with falling earnings and expectations is not
a prime environment for stock market gains. I had been planning
on leaving a futures buy order about +10 points above the daily
trading range just in case Saddam decided to retire or had an
accident. Instead I think we need to leave a sell order about
ten points below the current range to protect against the
coming attack. If the tape today was the "go" signal for
whatever is in the works then our countdown clock is running.

There was considerable talk in the press about the real threats
that prompted the increased threat level last week. Evidently
there were multiple intercepts about a radiation bomb along
with chemical/biological threats. Police in New York have been
told to look for household items like fire extinguishers that
could contain gas or chemicals. A suspicious man in a wetsuit
and rubber boat was seen near the bay bridge in San Francisco
this morning but got away clean after being spotted. The main
thread through all the government press conferences was the
potential for multiple concentrated attacks. This means that
any event will likely be followed by other events and the
market is not going to react well. Anyone that doubts we will
have an attack at some point in the future is kidding themselves.

Airlines are struggling with rapidly rising oil prices. It
appears jet fuel is in very short supply with the US burning
huge amounts in preparation for the war. Not only are they
storing it for war planes they are burning it with hundreds
of commercial aircraft they have commandeered to shuttle
troops from the US to the gulf. Those long flights are
depleting the reserves which are planned to handle current
airline schedules only. There are estimates of $40 oil by
next week. Every $1 rise in oil is a $7 billion drain on the
US consumer each month. Oil rose +.96 cents today alone. A
prolonged war will consume even more and we could see Iraq's
three million barrels dry up.

The Nasdaq somehow managed to close over 1295 yet again. This
level has proven to be critical to the market's health. This
is the sixth day the index has traded in this range. After
the Dow's decent bounce yesterday and the intraday gains
today it still managed to trade within 5 points of the lows
for the year at 7806. The close at 7838 was the lowest close
for the year. There is just a lot of uncertainty and fear
hanging on the market and there are fewer buyers every
day. Volume today was very anemic again and was the third
consecutive day under three billion total shares traded.
Some analysts claim low volume moves are not important but
ships can still sink in a calm sea. This sea is far from
calm and the current low volume may actually be the eye of
the storm.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

Don't Look Down
by Steven Price

It was hard to take much from today's early action, which saw
drifting around through much of the morning as Fed Chairman Alan
Greenspan testified before Congress.   However, one of the things
we did see is that the Dow found resistance once again at 8000
and left us squarely in sub-8000 territory, despite the political
developments of the past couple of days. We got a big move on
Monday following news that Iraq would allow U2 surveillance
flights over the country and that bullish move carried over into
this morning. The high of the day in the Dow, however, was 7985,
for its third failure at that level in the last four days.
However, by the end of the day, we got a better feel for overall
sentiment and that hasn't changed much in spite of Monday's
bounce.  We also got a reminder of just how sensitive the markets
remain to terrorism and war fears.

The Nasdaq Composite also crossed back over the 1300 level.  That
level had served as support during the past week, before finally
giving in on Friday.  Monday's bounce stopped short of that
level, topping out at 1298, giving the impression that previous
support would act as resistance.  That was not the case early on,
as the COMP traded all the way up to 1314 intraday.  It did stop
short of the 1319 level that had been previous resistance,
however, and bears can think about using a move over 1320 for a
stop to close current positions.   By the end of the day,
however, the COMP was sold down to 1295 and the close beneath
1300 still looks bearish.

That brings us back to those indices.   We did get reversals back
into columns of "X" in the OEX and SPX, but failed to get the 3-
box reversal in the Dow.   How important are those reversals?
The past four reversals up were actually great shorting
opportunities and so far these reversals come at lower levels
than the last and once again faded after the move higher. The SPX
reversed up to the breakdown level at 840, before falling and the
OEX made it just below that level, up to 425, before fading.
This may have been an excellent entry point for bears once again,
but chances are we won't be sure until we see how the market
reacts to the next Iraq weapons inspectors' report on Friday.
Traders looking to get short should keep that event in mind and
stick to smaller positions. They can be encouraged, however, that
the Dow was unable to muster enough strength to establish a
reversal at a round number as significant as 8000.   The
reversals certainly looked like great short entries by the end of
the day, as a major reversal lower followed news that Osama Bin
Laden was alive and once again sending messages through Arab
network Al-Jazeera.  Bin Laden pledged to fight with you
(assuming he meant Iraq) and U.S. officials said the tape does
appear to be from Bin Laden.  The SPX actually came within 0.09
of what would be a reversal back down again if it traded that low
on a day when it had not already reversed higher (For PnF
enthusiasts, a trade down to 820 would have simply added another
"O" to the current column, since it began the day in a column of
"O").  That's how strong the sell-off was from the high of the
day.  The oil markets also reflected the renewed war/terrorism
fear following the tape release, as March Oil Futures closing at
new relative highs and back over $35 per barrel. It may also
indicate the strength of the U.S. case against Iraq for harboring
terrorists just got stronger, thus speeding up the timetable for
an invasion. Of course, this once again leaves us in familiar
territory, wondering just how much of a sell-off we'd be seeing
without the Bin Laden tapes and Iraq hanging over the markets.
That brings us to the Fed Chairman's comments about the economy.

Alan Greenspan's testimony was his semi-annual report to Congress
and contained some nuggets that the Bush administration will not
likely be terribly happy about. He said he didn't necessarily
believe the economy needed an economic stimulus package and that
the geo-political concerns were weighing on an otherwise
improving picture.  He also said that he supported the
elimination of double taxation of corporate profits (read: get
rid of taxes on dividends), but not if it costs us anything.  The
Bush plan would cost plenty and democratic Senators made sure to
highlight that caveat to the recommendation. The support of the
elimination of dividend taxes will likely be used by the Bush
administration in pushing its plan, but it remains to be seen how
they will handle the part about funding such a move.

Until the Iraq situation is behind us, we will most likely be
asking ourselves that question on a regular basis.  Until then we
can only trade what we see, and for that purpose we can rely on
the technical indicators to help us make sense of it all.  It is
generally impossible to judge what we will be hearing next and
with so many international players having a hand in the
possibility (probability) of war, we need to be prepared for
whipsaws on a regular basis.  So far, however, the trend remains
down and it is hard to see how taking long positions for anything
more than a very short-term bounce makes any sense.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  7843

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7977
 50-dma: 8430
200-dma: 8725

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  829

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  844
 50-dma:  890
200-dma:  924

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     :  971

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  978
 50-dma: 1026
200-dma: 1024
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  What started as a bullish day
first faded and eventually bled red across many sectors. The SOX,
though, held up fairly well, gaining a point to finish at 266, in
the center of its recent range.  This group has been a barometer
for action in the broader tech indices and has actually held up
well, comparatively speaking, over the past week.  The support at
260 has turned out to be solid on a closing basis, although that
level did not appear as a significant one before this recent
test.    That could change tomorrow.  While AMAT came out and
warned that its 1st quarter orders would be down 35% on January
31, the SOX dipped to 261, before recovering and then held above
that level up until now.  Tonight, AMAT released earnings that
added to the negative tone for the sector. The company missed
estimates by two cents per share, reporting a breakeven net
quarter. Revenues rose to $1.05 billon, versus expectations for
$1.15 billion and it gave guidance for second quarter earnings
below consensus, as well.   Traders can watch for a decisive
breakdown below 260 to signal another leg lower, but keep in mind
we bounced after the last announcement and the intraday relative
low is 258.56 from Monday morning.  It will likely take a close
beneath 260 to cement the support break, but a move back below
the relative low may signal the opportunity to start stepping
into a position a little bit at a time.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 266

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 287
 50-dma: 306
200-dma: 342
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX once again forecast a bounce on Monday as it touched 40%.
Interestingly enough, on Tuesday's rollover back toward Monday's
lows, it remained closer to 37 and may be telling us that we have
more room to the downside on this drop before we get another
bounce at 40.  It may also be forecasting a lack of fear as we
simply dropped on the Bin Laden news and are in for a bounce.  If
we do take out Monday's lows and continue to fall, watch for the
VIX to approach 40 again and as it does shorts can tighten stops
in anticipation of an intraday bounce.  If instead, it continues
through 42, where there is congestion (between 40 and 42), then
look out below, as we may be headed into the 50s for the VIX and
much lower for the equities.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 37.35 -0.35
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 46.90 -0.41
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.87        433,864       377,304
Equity Only    0.67        313,259       210,113
OEX            1.72         22,654        39,072
QQQ            0.77         45,628        35,130
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          42.7    - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    37.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   20.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       41.0    - 1     Bull Correction
S&P 100       37.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.38
10-Day Arms Index  1.40
21-Day Arms Index  1.43
55-Day Arms Index  1.34

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1106          1751
NASDAQ     1436          1683

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        54              138
NASDAQ      41              120

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,521
NASDAQ     1,282
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/04/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials reduced long positions by 8,000 contracts and shorts
by 3,000, for a net increase of 5,000 shorts.  Small traders
increased long and short positions by about 8,000 contracts,
keeping the net relatively unchanged.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/14/03      411,052   453,164   (42,112)   (4.9%)
01/21/03      415,028   456,885   (41,857)   (4.8%)
01/28/03      422,232   468,586   (46,354)   (5.2%)
02/04/03      414,543   465,678   (51,135)   (5.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03      144,182    92,358    51,824     21.9%
01/23/03      148,227    95,356    52,871     21.7%
01/28/03      142,734    85,567    57,167     25.0%
02/04/03      151,174    93,439    57,735     23.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials increased long positions by approximately 2,000
contracts and shorts by 1,600.  Small traders increased short
positions by 1,000 contracts, leaving the long side close to
unchanged.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03       38,057     45,060   ( 7,003) ( 8.4%)
01/23/03       37,174     49,789   (12,615) (14.5%)
01/28/03       37,955     49,321   (11,366) (13.0%)
02/04/03       40,934     50,992   (10,058) (10.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03       20,757     8,320    12,437    42.8%
01/23/03       25,852     6,764    19,088    58.5%
01/28/03       25,814     7,576    18,238    54.6%
02/04/03       25,573     8,648    16,925    49.5)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased long positions by 1,500 contracts, while
reducing shorts slightly.  Small traders increased shorts by
1,600, while seeing a slight reduction to the long side.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/14/03       17,804    12,427    5,377      17.8%
01/23/03       16,901    11,031    5,870      21.0%
01/28/03       16,013    11,574    4,439      16.1%
02/04/03       17,596    11,232    6,364      22.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/14/03        4,552     7,697    (3,145)   (25.7%)
01/23/03        5,120     8,282    (3,162)   (23.6%)
01/28/03        4,838     7,836    (2,998)   (23.7%)
02/04/03        4,583     9,424    (4,841)   (34.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BULLISH high-risk/high-reward play))
===============

AMGN - Amgen Inc. - close: 53.45 change: +0.47 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Amgen is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops,
manufactures and markets important human therapeutics based on
advances in cellular and molecular biology. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
Finding a solid bullish trend that has existed for more than a
week in the current market environment is tough enough, but how
about a stock that has steadily posted higher highs and higher
lows since late September?  Further narrowing the field, how many
stocks in that group are above their 50-dma, with the 50-dma
above the 200-dma?  Not many.  Believe it or not, we're talking
about Biotechnology giant, AMGN, which has been steadily marching
up the charts in defiance of the both the broader market weakness
and even the lackluster action in the Biotech index (BTK.X),
which is a lot closer to its October lows, than its December
highs.  One factor that may be influencing the recent bullish
action could be the company's analyst meeting, currently
scheduled for February 25th.  We could see a strong move leading
up to that event.  Not only is the price action in AMGN
impressive (trading a new 9-month intraday high of $53.96 today),
but so is the volume.  For example, today's rally to new relative
highs was backed by the strongest volume reading in over two
weeks.

Overall, AMGN looks ready to stage a solid breakout with a trade
at $54.00.  A trade at this level would create a double-top buy
signal on the point-and-figure chart.  The p-n-f chart also shows
a bullish objective of $69.  While that's a bit too high of an
upside target for our relatively short-term play, the daily chart
shows few obstacles in between current levels and the
psychological resistance at $60.00.  This will be our initial
target region.  At retest of the 2002 highs near $63.00 wouldn't
be out of the question if we get some cooperation from the BTK.X.
The weekly chart shows that AMGN is trading in a bullish wedge
with previous support (which might now act as resistance) at
$55.00.  This level roughly coincides with a long-term trend of
lower highs.  We're being somewhat aggressive with an action
trigger at $54.06.  Traders seeking more upside confirmation may
want to wait for a move above $55.00.  Alternatively, a pullback
to the rising 21-dma ($51.73) might also present an entry point
if you feel more comfortable buying a dip.  Our stop-loss (if the
play is activated) will be set at $50.49.  More conservative
traders could use a stop slightly below the 21-dma.

Annotated weekly chart - AMGN:



Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)







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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 02-11-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCMP
  Closed Bullish Plays:  EBAY

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD, GWW, JWN, TSCO

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     AMGN
  Bullish Play Updates:  CYTC
  Bearish Play Updates:  IDPH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cabot Micro. - CCMP - cls: 41.78 chg: -0.78 stop: 45.36

Lately it seems as if the chip group has been devoid of any
remotely positive news.  On Tuesday morning, Texas Instruments
reiterated its earnings expectations for the first quarter of
2003.  Sector bulls, perhaps relieved that TXN wasn't suddenly
expecting business to deteriorate in Q1, bid the semiconductor
index above 270.  These gains evaporated during the afternoon as
the SOX.X moved lower with the broader market.  CCMP suffered a
similar intraday sell-off after topping out at $43.78.  The stock
finished with a 1.8% loss, following rangebound trading in the
$41.50-$42.00 area during the final two hours.  That indecision
suggests many investors were unwilling to take positions ahead of
tonight's earnings report from Applied Materials.  Shares of the
leading chip manufacturer were ticking lower by roughly 3% in the
extended session after the company reported a break-even quarter.
Analysts had been expecting a profit of 2 cents/share.  AMAT also
said its second-quarter earnings would come in slightly lower
than expectations.  The implicit lack of demand does not bode
well for Cabot, who makes the polishing slurries that are used in
the circuit manufacturing process.  This news will make it that
much harder for the stock to hold above its relative low of
$41.36.  Aggressive traders could think about opening new short
positions on a move below that level; just bear in mind that
shares may stabilize at psychological support ($40.00).  For the
time being we'll keep our stop-loss set at $45.36.  Those looking
for less upside risk could use a stop slightly above $44.00.

Picked on January 31st at $43.70
Results since picked:      +1.92
Earnings Date           01/23/03 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 73.49 change: -0.07 stop: *text*

Well, we tried.  When EBAY wasn't able to move back towards its
relative highs, it seemed that a pullback to the rising 50-dma
might offer an alternate entry point.  Late last week it looked
as if shares might pull back to that level.  A bounce from the
moving average would've activated this long play.  But instead,
the stock failed to set a lower low on Monday.  Today's action,
which saw EBAY trade in narrow range while remaining well above
$72.00, was the last straw.  Bulls can be encouraged that the
long-term uptrend has not been broken.  And while the 50-dma
wasn't actually tested, it's worth noting that the previous
pullback in December came to a halt without actually touching the
moving average.  But with the stock showing no clear direction
and plenty of congestion looming overhead, we're going to part
ways with this un-triggered play.  We'll keep an eye on EBAY for
an eventual breakout to new highs.

Picked on February xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/16/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 40.44 change: -0.52 stop: 42.01

The malaise investors feel for shares of APD is returning.  The
stock is continuing to slide lower and is quickly approaching its
support level at the $40 mark.  Traders looking for new bearish
positions may be best suited by waiting for that breakdown to
occur (again).  More conservative traders can actually wait for a
close under the $40 level (or a level more to their liking).
Some shorts were faked out when the stock closed at $39.97 a
couple of weeks ago.  Meanwhile, resistance at $42.00 remains
intact and short-term oscillators are looking grim.  Another big
down day in the broader indices might be the catalyst needed to
break the $40 mark.  Traders should also be aware that Air
Products' Chairman, President, and CEO, John Jones will be
speaking on Thursday, Feb. 13th.  The venue will be the Morgan
Stanley Global Chemical Conference in New York.  His presentation
is set to begin at 9:00 a.m. EST.  Should he say anything new, or
exceptionally positive (or negative) it could quickly affect the
stock price.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      -0.60
Earnings Date:          01/22/02 (confirmed)




---

Grainger - GWW - close: 45.51 change: +1.21 stop: 47.56 *new*

GWW bulls got some much-needed positive news on Tuesday morning
when BB&T Capital Markets upgraded the stock from "Hold" to
"Strong Buy."  While BB&T isn't one of the larger players in the
brokerage industry, it nonetheless gave some bearish traders a
good excuse to cover their short positions.  GWW marched higher
on strong volume before the rally lost momentum below short-term
resistance at $46.00, which happens to coincide with the top of
the loosely-defined descending channel that has dictated trading
over the past month.  This level also happens to coincide with
the 19.1% retracement from the January highs to yesterday's lows.
Given the steady downtrend, we're not overly concerned by the
fact that a rebound has taken GWW up to resistance.  A move over
$46.50, however, might spell trouble for the bears.  Conservative
traders may want to use a stop slightly above that level.  We're
going to lower our stop by 50 cents, to $47.56.  Speculative
traders could think about shorting a rollover from current
levels, using a fairly tight stop above resistance.

Picked on February 7th at $45.59
Results since picked:      +0.69
Earnings Date           01/29/03 (confirmed)




---

Nordstrom Inc - JWN - cls: 17.27 chg: +0.06 stop: 18.01

After four consecutive down days in a row shares of JWN looked a
bit overdue for a bounce.  That bounce began on Monday as several
sectors also overdue for some upward retracement began to edge
higher.  JWN bounced from the $16.75 levels closing at $17.21 to
end Monday's session.  Things got a bit more exciting this
morning when shares of Nordstrom gapped higher and ran to $17.75
but the bulls couldn't keep the momentum going and traders sold
into the rally attempt.  At the end of the day JWN was only able
to keep six cents worth of its gains.  Meanwhile the stock's
Point-and-Figure chart continues to look ominous with its bearish
breakout.  We suspect there were plenty of bears taking new
positions on the up tick today and the stock looks ready for new
relative lows.  Our stop loss is at $18.01 while our profit
target remains at $16.06.  Traders will want to keep an eye on
Wal-Mart (WMT), which has been struggling to stay above the $47
level and keep an eye on the Retail Index (RLX).  The RLX hit a
new four-year (intraday) low on Monday before bouncing higher.
That bounce has already begun to fail.  Watch the 245-244 level
on the RLX for guidance.

Picked on January 27th at $17.98
Results since picked:      +0.71
Earnings Date           02/20/02 (confirmed)




---

Tractor Supply Co. - TSCO - cls: 31.82 chg: -0.16 stop: 35.31

So far, so good.  Our short play in TSCO was activated yesterday
at $32.76 when shares fell to new relative lows.  Early-morning
selling gave way to a mid-day rebound that had absolutely no
staying power.  Shares traded the remainder of the session below
$32.50.  This level continued to provide intraday resistance on
Tuesday.  TSCO finished the session with a small loss after
tracing both a lower high and a lower low. This extension of the
recent downtrend and the continued strong volume are promising
signs for this play.  Bears can also be encouraged by TSCO's
pattern of relative weakness versus the RLX.X retail index.  Any
intraday rallies will be challenged by overhead resistance at
$32.50 and $33.00.  Our stop is located above the 200-dma at
$35.31.  Those with a more conservative strategy could use a stop
slightly above $34.00.  Traders still looking to open short
positions can watch for either a move under today's low ($31.65)
or another rollover from the $32.50 region.

Picked on February 10th at $32.76
Results since picked:       +0.94
Earnings Date            01/23/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

AMGN - Amgen Inc. - close: 53.45 change: +0.47 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Amgen is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops,
manufactures and markets important human therapeutics based on
advances in cellular and molecular biology. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
Finding a solid bullish trend that has existed for more than a
week in the current market environment is tough enough, but how
about a stock that has steadily posted higher highs and higher
lows since late September?  Further narrowing the field, how many
stocks in that group are above their 50-dma, with the 50-dma
above the 200-dma?  Not many.  Believe it or not, we're talking
about Biotechnology giant, AMGN, which has been steadily marching
up the charts in defiance of the both the broader market weakness
and even the lackluster action in the Biotech index (BTK.X),
which is a lot closer to its October lows, than its December
highs.  One factor that may be influencing the recent bullish
action could be the company's analyst meeting, currently
scheduled for February 25th.  We could see a strong move leading
up to that event.  Not only is the price action in AMGN
impressive (trading a new 9-month intraday high of $53.96 today),
but so is the volume.  For example, today's rally to new relative
highs was backed by the strongest volume reading in over two
weeks.

Overall, AMGN looks ready to stage a solid breakout with a trade
at $54.00.  A trade at this level would create a double-top buy
signal on the point-and-figure chart.  The p-n-f chart also shows
a bullish objective of $69.  While that's a bit too high of an
upside target for our relatively short-term play, the daily chart
shows few obstacles in between current levels and the
psychological resistance at $60.00.  This will be our initial
target region.  At retest of the 2002 highs near $63.00 wouldn't
be out of the question if we get some cooperation from the BTK.X.
The weekly chart shows that AMGN is trading in a bullish wedge
with previous support (which might now act as resistance) at
$55.00.  This level roughly coincides with a long-term trend of
lower highs.  We're being somewhat aggressive with an action
trigger at $54.06.  Traders seeking more upside confirmation may
want to wait for a move above $55.00.  Alternatively, a pullback
to the rising 21-dma ($51.73) might also present an entry point
if you feel more comfortable buying a dip.  Our stop-loss (if the
play is activated) will be set at $50.49.  More conservative
traders could use a stop slightly below the 21-dma.

Annotated weekly chart - AMGN:



Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cytyc Corp. - CYTC - close: 12.07 change: +0.15 stop: 11.20

It took awhile, but CYTC finally managed to trade up to our
action point on Tuesday.  The recent pattern of relative strength
was a sign that shares could soon be trading at new multi-month
highs.  With the NASDAQ moving slightly higher this morning, the
bulls had no problem pushing Cytyc above both our entry trigger
($12.12) and the mid-June high of $12.20.  The intraday move
above the latter level bodes well for an eventual rally to the
next area of resistance at $14.00.  We also like how shares held
firm while the NASDAQ ticked lower in afternoon trading and
closed above $12.00 for the first time since June.  Barring a
steep broader market sell-off tomorrow, it looks like CYTC is
well-positioned to attack new relative highs.  New entries can be
targeted on a move above $12.25.  Our stop-loss is set at $11.20.

Picked on February 11th at $12.12
Results since picked:       -0.05
Earnings Date            01/28/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 30.90 change: +0.15 stop: *text*

$30.00 is proving to be quite a tough nut to crack for the bears.
IDPH has more-or-less traded sideways above this level of support
ever since it tagged a relative low of $30.02 last Tuesday.  This
action doesn't come as a huge surprise, considering the fact that
the biotech index has been holding above its own key support at
324.  The recent sector trend has actually been slightly bullish,
with the BTK.X tracing a pattern of higher highs over the past
five sessions.  This action can in part be attributed to a steady
uptrend in shares of sector leader AMGN, which has been added to
Premier Investor as a bullish play.  IDPH, on the other hand, has
not shown any real ability to attract buyers.  We think shares
could fall off dramatically if/when support gives way.  Our entry
trigger remains at $29.99.  If the play is activated we'll use a
stop at $32.82.

Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            01/30/03 (confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

RYL     Ryland Group               40.49     +0.86
MOVI    Movie Gallery              14.60     +0.97
BBI     Blockbuster Inc            14.50     +1.35
BYD     Boyd Gaming                12.47     +0.58

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change

ORH     Odyssey Re Holdings       16.94     +1.15

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

NPSP    NPS Pharmaceuticals        22.83     +1.24
IMC     International Multifoods   23.01     +1.23
AET     Aetna Inc                  43.40     +1.55
NATI    National Instruments       33.40     +1.30

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

RKY     Adolph Coors               49.23     -1.02
WLP     Wellpoint Health Ntwk.     66.16     -2.43
RCII    Rent-A-Center              45.89     -4.16
ATH     Anthem Inc                 56.16     -1.74
MANH    Manhattan Associates       21.93     -1.24
MET     Metlife Inc                24.62     -1.38
LF      Leapfrog Enterprises       20.60     -3.95
OFIX    Orthofix Intl.             28.65     -1.15

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

WEG     Williams Energy            35.25     -0.45




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