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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 02/14/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-14-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Relief or Reaction?
Play-of-the-Day:  Recovering From a Tech Wreck
Watch List:       WMT, C, MSFT, AW and more!
Market Sentiment: Seeing Red (Flags)

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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 02-14        WE 02-07        WE 01-31        WE 01-24
DOW     7908.80 + 44.57 7864.23 -189.58 8053.81 - 77.20 -455.73
Nasdaq  1310.17 + 27.70 1282.47 - 38.44 1320.91 - 21.23 - 34.06
S&P-100  422.57 +  3.78  418.79 - 13.78  432.57 -  3.57 - 21.22
S&P-500  834.89 +  5.20  829.69 - 26.01  855.70 -  5.70 - 40.38
W5000   7896.94 + 23.52 7873.42 -251.65 8125.07 - 50.67 -354.59
RUT      358.50 -  0.28  358.78 - 13.39  372.17 -  2.89 - 13.04
TRAN    2102.60 - 37.37 2139.97 - 33.38 2173.35 + 10.02 -181.20
VIX       37.10 -  1.35   38.80 +  3.02   35.78 +  0.01 +  7.09
VXN       48.38 -  2.59   48.26 +  1.45   46.81 +  1.76 +  2.21
TRIN       0.58            1.57            0.89            1.69
Put/Call   0.97            0.94            0.84            0.83
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Relief or Reaction?
by Jim Brown

It was a new form of terror attack. Terrorists poured massive
amounts of money into stocks on Friday in a devious psychological
attack. With everybody expecting the worst, the best came to
pass as is normally the case. Once everybody finally decided a
retest of the October lows was inevitable buyers appeared.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Economically Friday was a good day with Industrial Production
soaring +0.7% in January according to the headline number. The
jump was actually a reaction bounce from the -0.4% decline in
December which was likely a calendar issue. Averaging both gives
you a more realistic +0.15% growth. Analysts credit the strong
gains to a jump in auto parts and higher output by power
companies due to the cold winter weather.

Business Inventories jumped +0.6% in December, which was
strongly over expectations of only +0.1%. On the surface this
would appear good that businesses are stocking up for a coming
increase in demand. Unfortunately the rise came from a slowing
of existing sales to only a +0.2% gain and that caused the
inventory levels to grow. This was not a bearish report
but yet another cautionary item.

The most bearish report was the Michigan Consumer Sentiment
which came in at 79.2 for the first two weeks of February.
This is a new nine-year low and a drop from 82.4 in January.
This should not surprise anybody with high unemployment, war
worries, terrorist alerts, weak economy and a falling market.
Higher gasoline prices hit consumers with every fill up and
being told to buy duct tape and plastic is not a confidence
builder either. Bankruptcy filings came in at 8.7% for the
last quarter and the full 2002 calendar year set a new record.
Money is tight for most people and stock profits are not
flowing.

Friday was a slow news day if you were looking for stock news.
It was totally focused on the different speeches coming from
the UN and the perceived reactions to the different presentations.
I am going to try and keep this brief but it is relative. To
put it bluntly the US was slam dunked by the inspectors and
the opposing countries. There was actually applause in the
normally reserved climate of the meeting room. Unfortunately
the applause was for speeches against the US position.

The most prevalent market view towards the war WAS to get a
coalition quick then launch the attack and get it over with
so the nation could get on with business. In a few short hours
that view changed to "this could take months before the
shooting starts" and fears that the drag on the markets would
last all summer. By mid afternoon the view had changed again
to "there may not be a war any time soon and over the next
several months the need for a war may disappear completely."
No war means no market drag, let's buy stocks.

We could debate the various possibilities that energized
traders but the bottom line is that investors decided to
spend some money after the fear of an immediate war has
passed. While I have no problem with the concept I was
surprised at the magnitude of the bounce just before a
three day weekend during a high terrorist alert. This
would not be a normally bullish day.

However there was news on the alert front as well. It appears
that some of the information that officials relied on to
issue the alert was bogus. The Al Qeada captive who
told investigators that a radiological/chemical/biological
weapon would be deployed, failed a lie detector test. He
had told officials that Washington, New York or Florida
would be hit by a "dirty" bomb sometime this week but it
was a concocted story. He said a cell in Virginia or Detroit
had found a way to smuggle the equipment into the country
and they were going to target specific government buildings
and religious events. It was reported that officials decided
to leave the orange alert over the weekend as a precaution.

The combination of these two events transformed the current
market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Suddenly there
was no war overhang. Maybe I should say "immediate" war
overhang. Traders would always rather put off worrying
about problems as long as possible. With the expected start
of the war just two weeks away it was fully priced into the
market. Now with the war 60-90 days away or maybe never
that war premium can be taken out again.

The wildcard in this equation is the 200,000 troops already
in the region and the full weight of the US military moving
full speed towards an attack in two weeks. The administration
has found itself between a rock and a hard place. Those troops
cannot be left there indefinitely. The cost to just run in
place is horrendous. Troops keyed up for action and then
left to bake in the sun for months would lose their combat
edge. Units would have to be continually rotated back to the
states and replaced with new troops and equipment. The
military showed up for the game but the gates to the
stadium are locked.

The Powell team is in full court press to get a new resolution
passed that will allow the use of force. According to news
reports on Friday this effort will be dead on arrival. Four
different countries have already threatened veto of the measure.
Now the US has to decide to go it alone or back down. We all
know how tough to swallow a retreat would be. Conversely an
attack by the US on its own with no help would be viewed very
badly on the world stage. There are several major antiwar
demonstrations around the world this weekend with over a
million participants in a single event. In my opinion the
Bush administration has been checkmated by an Iraq regime
that has made good use of four years without inspectors and
hidden everything very well.

I relate this not to bombard you with a constant barrage of
political viewpoints but to relate how the market might
react and why. I think what you saw on Friday was this
realization sinking in to investors consciousness. Traders
were putting 2+2+2 together and getting "buy" instead of 6.
That buying also took the form of short covering. Those who
were expecting that last downdraft between the UN update today
and the start of the war in two weeks suddenly found themselves
without a war. Instead of a smoking gun from the inspectors
they found reluctant cooperation from Iraq and outright
defiance from the inspectors. Instead of a new resolution
for war there is more than likely going to be a resolution
for peace. The smoking gun that would have every nation on
earth riding down on Iraq with legions of soldiers was
found this week. Unfortunately it was in North Korea.
Instead of trying to link Al Qeada to Iraq maybe they
should have been looking for the Korean connection to
prove their case. (grin)

There may actually be a smoking gun about to appear. Or,
more correctly a loose canon. According to www.debka.com
there really was a defection on Thursday and it was Adib
Shaaban, the right hand man of Uday Hussein, Saddam's son.
According to Debka, which is a highly biased and not always
verifiable source, Uday was in charge of the hidden weapons
and as his right hand man Adib would be better than a
smoking gun. While this story is unverified you can read
about it on their website. If it is true you can expect
serious changes in the deadlock soon.

Where to now? Obviously that is the $64 question. We were
trapped in a trading range between 7950-8150 for two weeks
in late January and early February. We fell out of that range
last week and dipped to a 75% retracement of the October lows.
With economic reports showing glimmers of hope those lows
may be way overdone. Earnings have not come back yet but
even with the negative economic overtones they are not falling
out the bottom. For the 1Q 40% of the pre-announcements have
been warnings. 23% have raised guidance and 37% affirmed
estimates. That means 60% are doing ok, not great but ok.
The 40% that warned is higher than normal but not the end
of the world. It is the economy after all and the Iraq ate
my earnings excuse will not fly for the 2Q. If the economy
was on the verge of collapse because of the impending
uncertainties of war the will removing the war card give
it an injection of speed?

You should be very confused by now. It boils down to these
decisions. Will the US be able to get a new resolution? I
strongly doubt it without inspectors uncovering a surprise
stockpile over the weekend. Will the UN pass a resolution
specifically prohibiting use of force and canceling the
war? I doubt that because the US could veto it. Will the
US decide to mount up and ride into Iraq with all guns
blazing and risk major consequences with major allies? I
doubt that as well. There was even an implied threat of
force against the effort by Russia. What a twist! We
would have to loan them money to buy gas to attack us.
The administration may have to give up trying to assemble
the coalition of the willing and settle for a coalition
of the reluctant if they proceed with the attack.

The betting on the street is less than a 20% chance of a
war at this time. That means there is an 80% chance of the
market rallying on this news next week. That rally should
reach 8150 at a minimum and possibly 8300. The majority
of the gains are not going to be made on better earnings
or a better economy but simply on an equalizing of the
war premium. We are very oversold long term and there is
substantial cash waiting on the sidelines for a signal.
That signal was the +158 Dow gain on Friday. That was
the shot heard around the world.

Obviously I over stated the simplicity of next weeks
decision. The political war will continue over the
weekend as the administration attempts damage control
and offers the dissenting countries some type of bribe
to regain their support. How eager would you be to come
back to our side after the various diplomats and talking
heads slandered you in the world press. If you cave in
now you would lose face on the global stage. The markets
are going to love this war of words instead of bullets.
However, if the US appears to be winning the political
battle the market will be quick to remove its bullish
horns.

I will be so glad to get back to regular markets with
real fundamentals. I would love to worry about NVDA
beating estimates instead of nuclear missiles in Korea.
I would much rather watch Gateway and Dell duke it out
on CNBC than round the clock replays of the UN meeting.
Give me Larry Ellison or John Chambers instead of Tariq
Aziz any day. You know it has gone too far when you start
reminiscing about the good old days of 2001 when all you
had to worry about was a bear market. Things have certainly
changed in the last 18 months.

There will be a lot of late night hours spent over the
long weekend as politicians ply their trade. By Tuesday
morning this may all be mute and conditions reversed
again. There are still hawks expecting the war to start
as early as this weekend. If not then Tuesday should be
a good day for the bulls.

Sell Too Soon!

Jim Brown

"If you bet on a horse, that's gambling. If you bet you
can make three spades, that's entertainment. If you bet
IBM will go up three points, that's investing."
Blackie Sherrod


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH)
=========================
((new high-risk/high-reward play))

Tech Data Corp. - TECD - close: 21.51 change: +0.74 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Tech Data Corporation founded in 1974, is a leading global provider
of IT products, logistics management and other value-added services.
Ranked 117th on the Fortune 500, the company and its subsidiaries
serve more than 100,000 technology resellers in the United States,
Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East.
Tech Data's extensive service offering includes pre- and post-sale
training and technical support, financing options and configuration
services as well as a full range of award-winning electronic commerce
solutions. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Shareholders of Tech Data were broadsided on February 7th after
the company warned of a significant downturn in profits for 2004.
Citing only "uncertain demand" in the IT sector, the company
forecast up to a 25% reduction in its year-over-year results.
This news came on the heels of TECD's announcement that it had
offered to buy Azlan, a Europe-based technology distributor, for
$235 million.  Investors were not pleased with these
developments.  TECD lost more than 15% of its value overnight as
shares gapped from $24 to $20.  The stock proceeded to tag a low
of $19.07 - its worst level since late 1999.  It was at this
point that the bears finally decided they'd had their fill.

Over the past week TECD retraced a portion of its recent losses.
These gains came in spite of a NASDAQ downtrend that took the
index below support at 1300.  Shares are currently filling in the
yawning gap on the daily chart, and now appear to be gaining
upside momentum.  The bulls responded particularly well to
Friday's broader market rally.  TECD charged ahead during the
final hour of trading and finished near the highs of the day.
That bodes well for further upside action next week.  Meanwhile,
the NASDAQ still has yet to prove itself on a technical basis.
While today's close over 1300 is bullish, the index hasn't staged
a convincing breakout above the top of its descending regression
channel.  A tech sector rollover could send TECD back towards
short-term support at $20.50.  However, the recent pattern of
relative strength suggests that the stock will be able to weather
any NASDAQ pullback without sustaining any major losses.  And on
the other hand, TECD looks nicely positioned to take advantage of
further gains in the index.  What we like most about this stock
is the lack of overhead resistance until the $24-$25 region.  For
the purposes of this hypothetical trade, we're going to target a
move to our exit target at $23.99, slightly below the top of the
February 7th gap.  Our action trigger to enter this play is set
at $21.61, a penny above today's high.  P-n-f chartists will
notice that at trade at $22.00 would create a three-box reversal
into a column of "X."  If we're triggered our stop will be set at
$20.49, just below the aforementioned short-term support.  This
also creates an acceptable risk/reward ratio of 1:2.  TECD has
been categorized as a "high-risk/high-reward" play because we
feel that it takes an aggressive strategy to buy a stock shortly
after an earnings warning.  Those with a more conservative
approach could either take partial positions or simply move on to
another bullish candidate - several of which are featured on this
weekend's Watch List.

Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            03/17/03 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 49.15 change: +1.51

WHAT TO WATCH: Do you believe consumers are going to pull back or
perform their patriotic duty should war breakout and/or a
terrorist attack hits somewhere in the homeland?  Your outlook
will determine whether you think WMT and the rest of the retail
group is a sector to short or go long.  From the looks of it,
shares of WMT have been basing sideways for three weeks and the
strong rally on Friday is a sign that the bulls have won (for
now) and a new uptrend could be upon us.  The stock's oscillators
would certainly confirm that on a daily chart.  Unfortunately,
we're not so sure going long is the best bet right here.  Sure,
WMT is probably selling plenty of duct tape and plastic tarps in
major metropolitan areas but how long will that last?  We see the
stock in a downward sloping channel and it just so happens that
the upper band of that channel coincides near the $50 mark AND
the 50-dma.  Should the stock close strongly above both then
maybe we'll start to grow some short-term horns, until then, this
could be setting up for another short play.




---

Citigroup - C - close: 32.54 change: +0.70

WHAT TO WATCH: This financial stock may not move fast enough for
some traders but market watchers should certainly keep an eye on
it.  That stock has been in a dreary downtrend with almost no
relief since mid-January.  It was near the end of last month that
shares broke through support at $34 and gave a triple-bottom sell
signal on its Point-and-figure chart.  The sell-off has continued
and the stock has almost filled the gap from back in mid-October.
Shares are very short-term oversold and due for a bounce.  The
two-day winning streak just might gives bulls hope but currently
shares of C are still stuck in that downtrend.  It is interesting
to note that the bounce just happens to be occurring as the stock
is hitting its bullish support trend on its PnF chart.
Coincidence?  Maybe and maybe not.  Traders  could see some
short-covering should the stock breakout above its downtrend
(probably near the $33 mark).  Unfortunately, C will have plenty
of overhead resistance at $34 and $35, which might make for
another bearish entry.




---

Microsoft Corp - MSFT - close: 48.30 change: +1.31

WHAT TO WATCH: Leading the charge higher on Friday was Mr. Softee
himself.  Shares of MSFT gained 2.78% and broke a very dreary
downtrend that started in mid-January.  Shares had been very
oversold and from the looks of its MACD the stock could have
plenty of upside, or could it?  Bears will argue that the $50
mark has been support/resistance recently and with the 200-dma
just above it, don't expect the stock to go anywhere.  We
certainly agree that the stock looks short-term oversold and the
big move could have some shorts running for cover... but
something else traders need to consider it the following: MSFT is
set to start trading at its 2-for-1 split adjusted price on
Tuesday (so says their press releases).  That means you should be
able to pick up a share of this software behemoth for less than
$25 smackers.  A lot of retail investors might see that as an
opportunity to do some buying.  On the other hand, MSFT will have
about 10.8 billion shares outstanding after the split.  There are
some mutual funds that may need to unload some MSFT if they have
requirements about not owning too many shares of any one company.
Plus, it's going to take a lot more ooomph! to move 10.8 billion
shares.  Volatility in the stock is likely to go down, which
isn't that great for short-term stock and option traders.




---

Boston Scientific - BSX - close: 40.95 change: +0.97

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of BSX were huge winners for investors
during the fourth quarter of 2002.  The rally continued into
January but hit some selling (like most of the market) during the
second half of the month.  The bulls have been able to stop the
decline near the $40 mark.  Traders are now asking whether this
is a short-term consolidation before it continues higher or has
this stock run out of gas?  It's normal to have a consolidation
after such a strong run up but what you don't want is to see
shares begin higher again only to die at previous resistance
(forming a double-top).  In addition to having resistance at $45
the stock also has to battle with its 50-dma near $42.50.  What
is positive about the stock has been it's ability to hold on to
recent support despite the steady leak in the broader indices.
Aggressive traders could go long here with a very tight stop
under Friday's low and aim for $45 or, if you're bearish, look
for a failed rally at the 50-dma or wait for it to close under
Friday's low (with a tight stop!).  By the way, if you're long-
term bullish, don't look at the PnF chart.  You might get dizzy
as shares look very extended.




---

Allied Waste - AW - close: 9.10 change: -0.54

WHAT TO WATCH: If you've ever thought about playing a trashy
stock this might be one to check out.  The company came out with
earnings on Feb. 13th and by the looks of Friday's performance,
Wall Street didn't like it.  Shares are poised right at the
stock's 200-dma, 100-dma, its 38.2% regression level (from Oct.
lows to Jan. highs) and the $9.00 level of support.  If you're
bullish on the stock, one way to play it would be to go long (at
your own trigger) with a stop under Friday's low.  If you're
bearish on the stock, (we're leaning towards bearish) then look
for shares to trade below Friday's low and place a stop at $9.25
or $9.50 depending on your risk tolerance.  We would not be
surprised to see it trade down to the $8.00-$7.50 levels.






The RADAR Screen
----------------

BDX - Shares of BDX appear to be building on a bullish breakout
from mid-January.  The stock broke through long-time resistance
at $32 and then failed at $34 before retreating.  Considering the
broader markets performance during the last half of January, this
was impressive.  The bulls were able to hold the stock near the
$32 mark and its 200-dma.  Thursday the stock bounce off its 50-
dma and the close on Friday back above $32 looks encouraging.
Aggressive bulls could consider a long with a stop just under
$31.00.

ADBE - Tech stocks have been a tough place to find bullish trades
lately but ADBE just might be making a short-term rally attempt
soon.  The stock has been languishing sideways near its 200 and
50-dma's and now Friday's move could portend a rally attempt to
the $29.30 level of resistance.  This would be a very short-term
and possibly intraday move but a trigger at $27.51 could be a
winner.

YHOO - The technicals on YHOO don't look that bad.  If you can
see the upward trending channel over the last few months then you
can also see how shares have rebounded off the bottom edge
recently.  Traders could go long and target a move to the top of
the channel, which should be near $21 to $22, but be aware that
the $20 mark could be a tough hurdle to cross if the rest of the
market doesn't participate.

Q - This is more of a speculative play on Qwest Communications.
Shares rallied from $2.00 to $6.00 from October to January.  When
the markets started tanking in mid-January, Qwest joined them and
by this last Thursday the stock had sunk to less then $4.00.
These are big percentage moves.  It just so happens that the low
on Thursday was near the stock's 200-dma.  With the MACD starting
to look bullish (not yet, but starting too) and the big rebound
back above the $4 mark, we would not be averse to using risk
capital on an oversold rebound.  Short-term resistance exists at
$4.75 and $5.00, so choose your exits carefully.





================
Market Sentiment
================

Seeing Red (Flags)
by Steven Price

We continue to see wild swings dominated by world events.
Picking direction over a period of days is becoming more
difficult, much less picking direction for just a couple of
hours. What world event is going to drive the markets higher?
What will be seen as a negative?  There are plenty of scenarios
offered to explain the market's reaction to certain events in
hindsight, but few that have successfully predicted the immediate
future.  Overall, we have undoubtedly been trending lower.
However, as we have approached oversold conditions and gotten a
big bounce the past couple of days, we are left to decipher
whether the bounce we've seen is due to market or world
conditions.  For that matter, we are still left to decide whether
the recent drop has been due to market or world conditions. It
seems that any moved can be explained once it is over, but
deciding what will happen next is becoming more difficult than it
has been in recent times.

Thursday's and Friday's action is a prime example of that
difficulty.  Thursday started off deep in the red.  We continued
the sell-off that has taken us down over 1000 Dow points since
the middle of January. We then got a triple digit bounce that
continued with a triple-digit gain Friday morning. That gain was
followed by a triple-digit drop, which was followed by an equally
powerful rally. Going back to the drop that got us to these
levels, why did sentiment suddenly shift after two bullish weeks
to start the year?  The obvious answer seems to be that investors
were funding their retirement plans for 2003, buoyed buy the
President's stimulus plan that included the elimination of taxes
on dividends.  When those contributions were completed, the rally
ended and we were left to focus on corporate earnings reports
that looked decent as far as beating estimates for the fourth
quarter, but painted a grim picture for 2003.  We have
undoubtedly seen institutions switch their balancing between
bonds and stocks as we have reached extreme ends of the spectrum
and that has led to some of the market activity. However, they
were most likely shifting those assets from bonds into stocks as
the Nasdaq fell over the past few years and it simply continued
lower, so while that strategy works well for traders engaging in
similar action, it does not necessarily tell us if we have found
a bottom or a top. July's closing low in the Dow was breached on
Thursday morning, but a rebound since that time has taken us
higher.  Is it merely a stop on the way to the October lows 500
points lower, or our rebound level?  Obviously this is an
impossible question to answer without a crystal ball and right
now the trend remains down.  However, as I mentioned in
Thursday's Sentiment, as we approach those bottoms and the
bullish percents become further extended to the downside, the
risks are shifting less in favor of the bears.

I have devoted some discussion in this space to the recent
patterns in the point and figure charts and we once again saw a
reversal in those signals. The reversals we got over the past
couple days were more powerful than the past few reversals in the
SPX and Dow.  In the case of the OEX, the last few reversals
varied between 3 and 5 boxes and the Dow has seen several 4-box
reversals recently, as well.  The SPX, however has seen only
three-box reversals on the last three bounces and this is not
only its biggest bounce since it rallied off of the 850 level,
but also the first bounce that has made it past the breakdown
level since giving a triple bottom sell signal back at 840.  The
Dow has now seen a 5-box reversal, which also went beyond the
strength of recent rallies.

Bullish percents are still sinking, but the Dow is becoming very
extended, down to 14% (oversold territory is 30% and lower) and
sitting right on its bullish support line.  The recent lows are
8% and 4%, so we are getting close to those levels, but yet still
heading down inspite of the rally of the last two days. The OEX
has also entered oversold territory at 28% and the SPX sits at
36%, but usually lags the others due to a higher number of
stocks.

A couple of significant previous support levels today failed to
act as resistance on the end of week rally.  The Dow had been
bouncing off 7800 before finally giving in and tumbling down to
7628.  However, that tumble led to a big bounce and the only
obvious explanation was short-covering ahead of the Hans Blix
speech.  Blix had a much different tone this morning than he did
the last time, when he crucified Iraq for non-cooperation.  He
essentially said they had found nothing and that Iraq had shown
some signs of cooperation, such as allowing scientists to be
interviewed without Iraqi monitors present. The market loved the
news that maybe the U.S. case for war would be more difficult to
make and we rallied right through the 7800 level.  Then came a
turnaround sell-off that made it appear as though the rally had
just been short covering as the Dow reversed all its gains and
went into the red.  We then climbed higher all afternoon and
eventually took out the previous intraday high at the close, in
what appears to be a sign of further bullishness.  The market has
tended to trick us with new relative highs rolling over into big
losses, but what we can take from today (and yesterday) are the
most significant bullish reversals in a while. The previous floor
on the Dow prior to the drop to 7800 was between 7900 and 7950
and we are right back into that area.  If we rally above 7950 on
Tuesday, look for the next level of resistance at 8000 and then
8150.  We are getting into choppy waters and traders should keep
that in mind when choosing direction. Each bounce has rolled over
for the past month, but none have been as powerful as the last
two days. While I have a hard time making a case for bullishness
in the current market and I still believe we are seeing only an
intermediate bounce, I will try to trade what I see.  Right now I
see a big red flag for bearish positions.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  7908

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7908
 50-dma: 8370
200-dma: 8695

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  834

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  835
 50-dma:  883
200-dma:  920

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     :  982

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  968
 50-dma: 1018
200-dma: 1020
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  The chip stocks rallied today,
following Dell's earnings release on Thursday night.  During the
broad market drop over the past couple of weeks the SOX has
actually held steady support at 260, indicating the sell-off
might not be as decisive as it seemed.  After holding that level,
it bounced today through its previous support at 270 and finished
at 280.16.  280 had been a significant support level going back
to a head and shoulders neckline begun in November.  While we
haven't seen a decisive move above that neckline, the level it is
now sitting on should be pivotal to tell us whether we get a
rollover at that neckline, or make another run at 300.  Dell
didn't have any positive news, other than meeting estimates and
giving forward guidance in-line with expectations.  That was a
departure from other forecasts which have recently come in on the
low end and it was good enough to get the bulls interested again
after the SOX sold off from a high of 393 in December.

52-week High: 641
52-week Low : 209
Current:      280

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 278
 50-dma: 300
200-dma: 338
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX ended the day in the red by over a point, but it's early
action was a warning that the morning rally might not hold.
While the market was soaring on Hans Blix weapons inspection
report to the UN, the VIX was holding up in positive territory,
rather than sinking as it does on most rallies.  That indication
bore fruit when the market rolled over, giving up 160 Dow points
after Blix finished speaking.  It also forecast a more decisive
rally in the afternoon.  As the market climbed later in the day,
the VIX sank, letting us know this rally had more staying power.
The fact that we have a three-day weekend ahead of us also may
have played a part in weekend premium selling, as traders attempt
to capture (or avoid) three days of time decay.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 37.10 -1.35
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 48.38 -2.59
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.98        458,347       447,017
Equity Only    0.79        318,083       249,717
OEX            1.19         31,833        37,877
QQQ            1.53         40,653        62,146
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          40.3    - 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    32.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   13.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       34.6    - 1     Bull Correction
S&P 100       28.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.16
10-Day Arms Index  1.38
21-Day Arms Index  1.43
55-Day Arms Index  1.36


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1827          1003
NASDAQ     1930          1165

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        42              104
NASDAQ      58              103

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,583
NASDAQ     1,289
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/11/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials slightly decreased long positions, while increasing
shorts by a more significant amount.  The net result was an
increase of 8700 on the short side. Small traders increased longs
by 10,000 and shorts by 2,000.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/21/03      415,028   456,885   (41,857)   (4.8%)
01/28/03      422,232   468,586   (46,354)   (5.2%)
02/04/03      414,543   465,678   (51,135)   (5.8%)
02/11/03      412,333   472,156   (59,823)   (6.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03      148,227    95,356    52,871     21.7%
01/28/03      142,734    85,567    57,167     25.0%
02/04/03      151,174    93,439    57,735     23.5%
02/11/03      161,126    95,618    65,508     25.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced longs by 1,500 and increased shorts
by 3,000, for a 6% increase in overall short position.
Small traders increased the long side by 4,000 contracts,
while leaving shorts close to unchanged.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03       37,174     49,789   (12,615) (14.5%)
01/28/03       37,955     49,321   (11,366) (13.0%)
02/04/03       40,934     50,992   (10,058) (10.9%)
02/11/03       39,412     53,818   (14,406) (15.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03       25,852     6,764    19,088    58.5%
01/28/03       25,814     7,576    18,238    54.6%
02/04/03       25,573     8,648    16,925    49.5%
02/11/03       29,667     8,915    20,752    53.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased long positions by 2,000 contracts and
shorts by 600.  Small traders took a similar approach with an
increase of 800 to the long side and a small decrease to shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03       16,901    11,031    5,870      21.0%
01/28/03       16,013    11,574    4,439      16.1%
02/04/03       17,596    11,232    6,364      22.1%
02/11/03       19,826    11,800    8,026      25.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/23/03        5,120     8,282    (3,162)   (23.6%)
01/28/03        4,838     7,836    (2,998)   (23.7%)
02/04/03        4,583     9,424    (4,841)   (34.6%)
02/11/03        5,390     9,300    (3,910)   (26.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-14-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CCMP

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD, GWW, JWN, WHR

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     TECD
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMGN, CYTC
  Bearish Play Updates:  IDPH

Split Trader / Stock Splits
  Split Announcements:
                         FFLC: 3-for-2 split announcement


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Cabot Micro. - CCMP - close: 44.31 change: +2.38 stop: 44.06

On Friday morning the semiconductor index broke out of its recent
trading range - but not in the direction we hoped it would.  The
sector was lifted by a positive reaction to DELL’s (and to a
lesser extent, NVDA’S) quarterly earnings announcements.  There
were also some bullish comments out of the Taiwan Semi (TSM)
camp.  While these developments probably would’ve taken a back
seat to a U.N.-induced market sell-off, the major indexes
actually rallied on Hans Blix’s comments. This proved to be too
much for CCMP bears to handle.  Shares proceeded to move through
$44.00 and our stop-loss at $44.06.  Our short play was stopped
out for a loss of less of one percent.  On the 60-minute chart,
we see that the SOX.X has traced a double-bottom pattern.  This
formation, along with the breakout from the recent consolidation
range, is a sign that the index could be headed for a test of
overhead resistance at 290.  Further upside action in the SOX.X
could push CCMP above the 200-dma near $45.00.  The stock faces
more substantial resistance at $48.00.  A failed rally from this
level might provide another bearish entry point.

Picked on January 31st at $43.70
Results since picked:      -0.36
Earnings Date           01/23/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 40.39 change: +0.21 stop: 42.01

All things considered, that was a pretty weak performance by APD.
The stock's half-percentage gain is certainly nothing to write
home about on a day when the Dow Jones gains more than 2%.  While
there was no fresh news to explain the relative weakness, you
might remember that Air Products filed their 10-Q with the SEC
just before the closing bell on Thursday.  Investors combing
through the report may have found something they didn't like.
Today's trading saw a steep sell-off bring the stock within cents
of the relative low at $39.32.  Just when it seemed that APD
might fall into the void, Wall Street decided that the net
results of Hans Blix's comments at the U.N. were positive for the
equity market.  Either that, or short traders simply wanted to
cover positions ahead of the long weekend.  In any case, we like
this play's chances if the Dow Jones reverses course next week
and resumes its downtrend.  It took a widely-based market rally
to push APD back above $40.00 this afternoon, and the bulls will
have a tough time staying afloat if shares break to new multi-
month lows.  For the time being we'll maintain a stop at $42.01.
More cautious types could use a stop just above the descending
21-dma at $41.14.  This moving average has acted as resistance
over the past three weeks.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      -0.55
Earnings Date:          01/22/02 (confirmed)




---

Grainger - GWW - close: 46.17 change: +1.47 stop: 47.56

Friday's trading in GWW was characterized by a slow, steady
uptrend.  Shares did move lower with the Dow Jones shortly before
12:00 EST, but buyers were eager to take advantage of the
pullback.  Interestingly, the rebound came around the same time
that Grainger released a press release announcing the acquisition
of a privately-held agricultural/horticultural company called
Gempler's.  Specific terms of the agreement were not released.
GWW powered higher throughout the session and finished near the
highs of the day.  These gains took GWW out of the descending
regression channel that we've been watching.  However, the
current bullish technicals might be rendered obsolete if the
market heads back down on Tuesday.  At this point in the game,
it's incredibly difficult to get a feeling for how the market
might react to any new geo-political events over the weekend.
Conservative traders who elected to use a break-even stop should
already be out of this short play.  We've given GWW some
additional room to move with a stop at $47.56.  The PI Newsletter
is not recommending new entries at this time.

Picked on February 7th at $45.59
Results since picked:      -0.58
Earnings Date           01/29/03 (confirmed)




---

Nordstrom Inc - JWN - cls: 17.31 chg: +0.26 stop: 18.01

For all its technical weakness, we knew that JWN might head
higher if the broader market saw a powerful oversold bounce on
Friday.  Sure enough...the Dow exploded for a triple-digit gain.
However, this did not translate into a large short-covering rally
for Nordstrom.  The stock meandered around near the $17.00 level
for most of the session before the late-session market gains
pushed JWN (and most other equities) quickly higher.  Shares
finished with a gain of 1.5%.  That's hardly a convincing bounce
when you consider the fact that the retail index tacked on 3.0%.
That relative weakness bodes well for this short play.  On the
other hand, it's possible that sector bulls might seize upon
today's strong gains in the RLX.X and push the index through
resistance at 255.  A solid breakout above this level could send
JWN back towards $18.00.  The 15-minute chart shows that JWN has
additional overhead resistance near $17.40 and $17.75.  A failed
rally from either level might provide a shorting opportunity -
but be sure to first confirm weakness in the RLX.X.  Also
remember that we'll be exiting this play if JWN trades at or
below our profit-target at $16.06.

Picked on January 27th at $17.98
Results since picked:      +0.67
Earnings Date           02/20/02 (confirmed)




---

Whirlpool Corp. - WHR - close: 50.42 change: +1.09 stop: *text*

Unsuspecting bears were trampled into the ground today when the
market rallied on Dovish comments from U.N. Weapons Inspector
Hans Blix.  But are these gains sustainable?  A lot of today's
equity gains could be chalked up to short-covering.  Bears don't
want to be caught with their pants down in the unlikely event
that the chances for war decrease significantly over the weekend.
While odds of that happening aren't very good (does anyone really
think that Saddam Hussein will suddenly relinquish his
Dictatorship?), short traders were in a hurry to take profits
after riding the Dow lower throughout the rest of the week.  This
short play in Whirlpool was largely designed to take advantage of
a market sell-off on Friday.  Instead, the stock moved higher
with the market and closed above previous support at $50.00.  So
why are we keeping this play open?  Simply put, we're not
convinced.  One day of short-covering does not equate to a
sustainable rally.  If the major indexes loose their upside
momentum and head lower next week, we think WHR might still
present an attractive short.  Our entry trigger remains set at
$48.67.  We'll use a stop at $50.56 if the play is activated.
Continued gains in WHR would probably earn the stock a spot on
our Drop List.

Picked on February xxth at xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           02/05/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Tech Data Corp. - TECD - close: 21.51 change: +0.74 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Tech Data Corporation founded in 1974, is a leading global provider
of IT products, logistics management and other value-added services.
Ranked 117th on the Fortune 500, the company and its subsidiaries
serve more than 100,000 technology resellers in the United States,
Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East.
Tech Data's extensive service offering includes pre- and post-sale
training and technical support, financing options and configuration
services as well as a full range of award-winning electronic commerce
solutions. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Shareholders of Tech Data were broadsided on February 7th after
the company warned of a significant downturn in profits for 2004.
Citing only "uncertain demand" in the IT sector, the company
forecast up to a 25% reduction in its year-over-year results.
This news came on the heels of TECD's announcement that it had
offered to buy Azlan, a Europe-based technology distributor, for
$235 million.  Investors were not pleased with these
developments.  TECD lost more than 15% of its value overnight as
shares gapped from $24 to $20.  The stock proceeded to tag a low
of $19.07 - its worst level since late 1999.  It was at this
point that the bears finally decided they'd had their fill.

Over the past week TECD retraced a portion of its recent losses.
These gains came in spite of a NASDAQ downtrend that took the
index below support at 1300.  Shares are currently filling in the
yawning gap on the daily chart, and now appear to be gaining
upside momentum.  The bulls responded particularly well to
Friday's broader market rally.  TECD charged ahead during the
final hour of trading and finished near the highs of the day.
That bodes well for further upside action next week.  Meanwhile,
the NASDAQ still has yet to prove itself on a technical basis.
While today's close over 1300 is bullish, the index hasn't staged
a convincing breakout above the top of its descending regression
channel.  A tech sector rollover could send TECD back towards
short-term support at $20.50.  However, the recent pattern of
relative strength suggests that the stock will be able to weather
any NASDAQ pullback without sustaining any major losses.  And on
the other hand, TECD looks nicely positioned to take advantage of
further gains in the index.  What we like most about this stock
is the lack of overhead resistance until the $24-$25 region.  For
the purposes of this hypothetical trade, we're going to target a
move to our exit target at $23.99, slightly below the top of the
February 7th gap.  Our action trigger to enter this play is set
at $21.61, a penny above today's high.  P-n-f chartists will
notice that at trade at $22.00 would create a three-box reversal
into a column of "X."  If we're triggered our stop will be set at
$20.49, just below the aforementioned short-term support.  This
also creates an acceptable risk/reward ratio of 1:2.  TECD has
been categorized as a "high-risk/high-reward" play because we
feel that it takes an aggressive strategy to buy a stock shortly
after an earnings warning.  Those with a more conservative
approach could either take partial positions or simply move on to
another bullish candidate - several of which are featured on this
weekend's Watch List.

Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            03/17/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

AMGN - Amgen Inc. - close: 52.60 change: +0.82 stop: 50.49

The biotech sector was given a bearish slant on Friday after
Biogen adjusted its 2002 earnings to reflect a recent $55 million
settlement with Schering AG's (SHR) Berlex Laboratories division.
While that news should have any material impact on Biogen’s
competitors, it nonetheless had a deleterious effect on the biotech
index.  The BTK.X finished the day with a fractional gain - quite
unimpressive, considering the 32-point on the NASDAQ.  AMGN fared
better with a gain of 1.5%.  A strong move higher during the final
minutes of trading propelled the stock above our entry trigger at
$52.51.  Now that the play has been activated we’ll be looking for
shares to move up to resistance at $54.00. Amgen’s daily chart looks
promising enough, with the stock bouncing above its rising 50-dma.
Of course, we’ll probably need to see some leadership from the BTK.X
if AMGN is ever going to plow ahead to new relative highs.  Our stop-
loss for this paper trade is set at $50.49.  That’s a shorter leash
than we normally prefer to give our high-risk/reward plays, but with
resistance looming overhead we’d prefer to head for the exits if the
50-dma fails to provide support.  Aggressive traders can target new
entries on a move above today’s high of $52.74.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +0.09
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)




---

Cytyc Corp. - CYTC - close: 12.52 change: -0.17 stop: 11.49

Friday morning’s gains in the Dow Jones and NASDAQ provided the
ideal environment for continued gains in shares of Cytyc.  The
stock spiked higher shortly after the opening bell and tagged a
new multi-month high of $12.84.  CYTC then traded in the $12.50-
$12.80 range for the rest of the session.  The 5-minute chart
shows that the $12.50 area acted as resistance on Thursday
morning.  Bulls can be encouraged that this level is now
providing intraday support.  On a more concerning note, the
recent trend of relative strength did not carry over into today’s
session.  CYTC faded the broader market and finished with a small
loss.  It looks like some bulls were eager to take profits ahead
of the long weekend.  The stock had posted some relatively fast
gains after breaking above $12.00, so from a technical standpoint
it’s not too surprising to see some consolidation at current
levels.  Traders looking to protect a 3.0% gain could use a stop
just below $12.50.  Next week we’ll be looking for shares to hold
above this level and move to new relative highs.  Aggressive
short-term traders could target entries on a move above $12.84.
Depending on your risk tolerance, you might want to consider
using a break-even stop at $12.12.  Our stop and profit-target
remain unchanged: $11.49 and $13.94, respectively.

Picked on February 11th at $12.12
Results since picked:       +0.40
Earnings Date            01/28/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 29.90 change: +0.44 stop: 32.82

Today’s 2.5% NASDAQ rally gave IDPH bulls a ray of hope, one day
after the stock fell below critical support at $30.00.  Those
hopes were challenged by Biogen, who restated their 2002 earnings
after settling a $55 million lawsuit with Berlex Labs.  This cast
a bearish pallor over the entire biotech sector, resulting in
only a fractional gain for the BTK.X biotech index.  IDPH also
showed relative weakness with a 1.4% gain.  Shares closed below
$30.00 after mustering a few brief intraday jaunts above that
level.  This play will be in good shape if $30.00 continues to
act as resistance.  We’re also pleased with the way shares failed
to respond to AG Edwards’ "Hold" rating that was initiated this
morning.  We doubt many investors will want to hold on to IDEC if
it continues to underperform the market. Going ahead, we’ll be
watching for shares to roll over and move under the relative low
of $28.38.  Cautious traders can maintain a stop at $31.35, above
Tuesday’s high.

Picked on February 13th at $29.99
Results since picked:       +0.09
Earnings Date            01/30/03 (confirmed)





=================================================================
Split Trader / Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

FFLC Banks on 3-for-2 Stock Split

Shortly after 12:00 EST on Friday, word came from FFLC Bancorp
(NASDAQ: FFLC) that its Board of Directors had given the go-ahead
on a 3-for-2 stock split.

Stockholders as of the February 28th record date will receive the
additional shares.  The company did not say when the split (to be
paid in the form of a 50% dividend) would be distributed.

FFLC has a history of sporadic volume, sometimes going several
days without trading.  Lately buying interest has been picking up
as shares approach the multi-year high of $34.70.  A move above
this level would set the stage for a test of the all-time high at
$36.75.

The stock closed at $34.28 on Friday. For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=FFLC

About the company
First Federal Savings Bank of Lake County conducts business in Lake,
Sumter, Citrus and Marion Counties, Florida, through a network of
fourteen branch offices. (source: company press release)




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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 02-14-2003
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of February 17th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==========================================
Market Watch for the week of February 17th
==========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

PBR    Petrobras             Mon, Feb 17  -----N/A-----       1.26
TEVA   Teva Pharmaceutical   Mon, Feb 17  -----N/A-----       0.46


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ANF    Abercrombie & Fitch   Tue, Feb 18  After the Bell      0.90
AMCR   Amcor Limited         Tue, Feb 18  After the Bell       N/A
BRG    BG Group              Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.28
VNT    C. A. Nac Tele Vene   Tue, Feb 18  -----N/A-----      -0.09
CU     Compania Cerv Unidas  Tue, Feb 18  -----N/A-----       0.34
CE     Concord EFS           Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.18
ECL    Ecolab Inc.           Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.44
FHCC   First Health Group    Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.33
GPC    Genuine Parts         Tue, Feb 18  -----N/A-----       0.52
GLG    Glamis Gold Ltd       Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.03
KG     King Pharmaceuticals  Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.39
LH     Lab Corp of Am        Tue, Feb 18  After the Bell      0.36
RTRSY  Reuters Group         Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell      N/A
SNY    Sanofi Synthelabo     Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell      N/A
STO    STATOIL ASA           Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.25
SDS    SunGard Data Systems  Tue, Feb 18  After the Bell      0.31
RSE    The Rouse Company     Tue, Feb 18  -----N/A-----       1.26
UBS    UBS AG                Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell      N/A
WMT    Wal-Mart Stores Inc.  Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.56
WMI    Waste Management      Tue, Feb 18  Before the Bell     0.34


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ADCT   ADC                   Wed, Feb 19  After the Bell     -0.04
ACL    Alcon Inc.            Wed, Feb 19  After the Bell      0.30
AIB    Allied Irish Banks    Wed, Feb 19  -----N/A-----        N/A
AFG    American Financial GrpWed, Feb 19  Before the Bell     0.63
BLDP   Ballard Power Systems Wed, Feb 19  -----N/A-----      -0.34
CEPH   Cephalon, Inc.        Wed, Feb 19  After the Bell      0.36
KOF    COCA-COLA FEMSA       Wed, Feb 19  Before the Bell     0.45
DCI    Donaldson             Wed, Feb 19  After the Bell      0.45
FMX    FEMSA                 Wed, Feb 19  Before the Bell     1.02
JHX    James Hardie Ind N.V. Wed, Feb 19  After the Bell       N/A
PHA    Pharmacia Corporation Wed, Feb 19  Before the Bell     0.40
Q      Qwest Communications  Wed, Feb 19  Before the Bell    -0.11
STOSY  Santos Ltd.           Wed, Feb 19  -----N/A-----        N/A
TK     TEEKAY SHIP MRSHL ISL Wed, Feb 19  After the Bell      0.67
TEM    Telefonica Moviles    Wed, Feb 19  Before the Bell      N/A
TLSN   TELIASONERA A B       Wed, Feb 19  -----N/A-----        N/A
XTO    XTO Energy Inc.       Wed, Feb 19  Before the Bell     0.43


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AMLN   Amylin Pharm Inc.     Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell    -0.29
AHG    Apria Healthcare Grp  Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.49
ARW    Arrow Electronics     Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.05
BEAS   BEA Systems           Thu, Feb 20  After the Bell      0.08
CBRL   CBRL Group            Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.48
CIEN   CIENA Corporation     Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell    -0.14
CXR    COX RADIO INC         Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.16
CEI    Cres Rl Est Eq Co     Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.58
DCX    DaimlerChrysler       Thu, Feb 20  02:00 am ET          N/A
DDR    DEVEL DIVERS RLTY CO  Thu, Feb 20  After the Bell      0.64
DEO    Diageo PLC            Thu, Feb 20  02:00 am ET          N/A
ENL    Elsevier NV ADS       Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----        N/A
ECA    EnCana Corporation    Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.50
HAL    Halliburton Company   Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.23
HAN    Hanson PLC            Thu, Feb 20  02:00 am ET          N/A
HCC    HCC Insurance Hldng   Thu, Feb 20  After the Bell      0.50
HRL    Hormel Foods Corp     Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.37
IM     Ingram Micro          Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.18
JDEC   J.D. Edwards          Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.03
JCP    JC Penney             Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.66
MLS    Mills Corporation     Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.93
NXTL   Nextel Communications Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.10
JWN    Nordstrom             Thu, Feb 20  After the Bell      0.42
PDCO   Patterson Dental      Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.43
PDG    Placer Dome           Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.08
RSH    RadioShack Corp       Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.59
RUK    Reed Elsevier NV/Plc. Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----        N/A
SRE    Sempra Energy         Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.53
SCRI   SICOR                 Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.21
SYT    Syngenta              Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell      N/A
TGT    Target Corporation    Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.75
TOT    Total Fina Elf        Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     1.27
TP     TPG NV                Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.40
VCI    Valassis Comm Inc.    Thu, Feb 20  -----N/A-----       0.62
WGR    Western Gas Resources Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell     0.32
WMB    Williams Companies    Thu, Feb 20  Before the Bell    -0.17


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

A      Agilent Technologies  Fri, Feb 21  Before the Bell    -0.25
ING    ING Groupe NV         Fri, Feb 21  -----N/A-----        N/A
MDG    Meridian Gold Inc.    Fri, Feb 21  -----N/A-----       0.10
PBR    Petrobras             Fri, Feb 21  -----N/A-----       1.26
TKP    Technip-Coflexip      Fri, Feb 21  Before the Bell     0.24


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

TARR    Tarragon Realty Investors 3:2      Feb. 14th   Feb. 18th
MSFT    Microsoft                 2:1      Feb. 14th   Feb. 18th
ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare        3:2      Feb. 21st   Feb. 24th
LCI     Lannett                   3:2      Feb. 28th   Mar. 03rd
EXAC    Exactech                  2:1      Feb. 28th   Mar. 03rd


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Economists may be looking towards the upcoming PPI and CPI
reports this week but the world and the stock markets will
be watching and waiting for the next scene to unfold in the
Iraqi-UN-US saga.

==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 02/17/02
----------------
None


Tuesday, 02/18/02
-----------------
None


Wednesday, 02/19/02
-------------------
Housing Starts (BB)     Jan  Forecast: 1.775M  Previous:   1.835M
Building Permits (BB)   Jan  Forecast: 1.800M  Previous:   1.887M

Thursday, 02/20/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   02/15  Forecast:   386K  Previous:     377K
PPI (BB)                Jan  Forecast:   0.4%  Previous:     0.0%
Core PPI (BB)           Jan  Forecast:   0.1%  Previous:    -0.3%
Trader Balance (BB)     Dec  Forecast:-$38.5B  Previous:  -$40.1B
Leading Indicators (DM) Jan  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:     0.1%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)   Feb  Forecast:   11.0  Previous:     11.2


Friday, 02/21/02
----------------
CPI (BB)                Jan  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.1%
Core CPI (BB)           Jan  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
Treasury Budget (DM)    Jan  Forecast:  75.6%  Previous:    75.4%


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MO      Altria Group               38.14     +0.67
MER     Merrill Lynch              33.75     +0.99
LEH     Lehman Brothers            51.59     +0.75
SOTR    Southtrust Corp            26.59     +0.69
FTN     First Tennessee Natl.      38.00     +0.74
LAF     Lafarge North America      28.40     +0.60
STC     Stewart Info Services      22.68     +0.83

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change

NSM     National Semiconductor    14.04     +1.20
NVDA    Nvidia Corp               12.04     +2.17
AMMD    American Medical Sys.     17.10     +1.10
ADIC    Advanced Digital           6.95     +1.25
NFLX    Netflix Inc               14.24     +1.02

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MMM     3M Company                125.09     +2.68
DB      Deutsche Bank              43.98     +1.88
GIS     General Mills              45.27     +1.12
INTU    Intuit Inc                 44.43     +2.76
PCAR    Paccar Inc                 48.14     +1.46
BER     W.R. Berkley               40.51     +1.54
TTC     Toro Co                    67.76     +2.09
PLB     American Italian Pasta     42.75     +1.75
TSCO    Tractor Supply             34.20     +1.71
KKD     Krispy Kreme               31.15     +2.75

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FRX     Forest Labs                46.25     -1.30
PKX     Posco                      24.27     -1.28
DP      Diagnostic Products        30.72     -2.90
ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare         30.30     -1.49

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

                             




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