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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 02/18/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 02-18-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Retail Sales Soar
Market Sentiment: No Weakness
Play-of-the-Day:  Short-Circuited Bears

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      02-18-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8041.15 +132.40  8076.02  7909.30 1.39 bln   2341/ 908
NASDAQ   1346.54 + 36.40  1346.92  1319.52 1.28 bln   2216/1131
S&P 100   431.48 +  8.91   432.71   422.57   Totals   4557/2039
S&P 500   851.17 + 16.28   852.87   834.89
W5000    8051.71 +154.80  8061.00  7896.94
RUS 2000  364.53 +  6.03   364.59   358.50
DJ TRANS 2140.65 + 38.10  2140.65  2100.67
VIX        35.56 -  1.54    37.06    35.25
VXN        48.40 +  0.02    49.63    47.71
Total Volume 2,871M
Total UpVol  2,467M
Total DnVol    378M
52wk Highs  113
52wk Lows   16
TRIN       0.45
PUT/CALL    .81
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Retail Sales Soar

At least at Wal-Mart where sales of duct tape, plastic, batteries,
flashlights and other survival necessities helped overcome weak
Valentine sales due to the snowstorm in the north. No kidding.
I mentioned this possibility last week that the terror alert
would revive retail sales and Wal-Mart is the first major chain
to admit it. Don't tell Greenspan or we will have weekly terrorist
alerts to boost the economy.

Dow chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


While Wal-Mart may have seen a benefit from the alert most other
businesses were not seeing anything due to the white out on the
east coast. The traditional mid-winter sale over the President's
Day weekend fell flat with many stores closing for much of the
weekend. The retailers depend on the holiday sale to dump the
rest of their leftover Christmas merchandise and the rest of
winter apparel to make room for spring merchandise. With the
money already spent for the traditional advertising flurry last
weekend there is a shortage of budgets to do it again. This was
a serious blow for retailers in the north.

It was also a blow to the struggling airline industry. Most
airlines had to cancel the majority of flights to the north
east both inbound and outbound. Holiday travelers stayed home
by the millions and equipment shortages hampered routes all
across the nation. Planes snowbound in the north were not
available to complete routes in the south and west. On Monday
alone AMR cancelled 627 flights and UAL cancelled 380. Multiply
this across all the airlines and the multiple days of the
weekend and you can see the problem.

The NY State Manufacturing Survey came in at only 1.1 for
February, which was down from 20.7 last month. This is a huge
drop and showed a huge drop in unfilled orders, -10.6, prices
received -14.4 and inventories -3.8. The switch from robust to
barely positive in only one month is not encouraging. One
analyst said it indicated relatively stable conditions. And
what drug was he smoking?

The Semiconductor book-to-bill numbers came out at 6:PM today
and the number fell to .92 in January from .94 in December.
Remember this is a three month moving average so the real
drop was much steeper. Orders fell -10% and shipments dropped
-9%. The semi sector may be improving on the surface but the
BTB tells the real tale. You can book all the orders you want
but the real number is in the shipments. You can cancel outright
or defer orders for months once placed. When both numbers fall
it is an indication of trouble ahead.

Wednesday we have the Chain Store Sales again, Mortgage
Applications, Residential Housing Starts and the NAHB Housing
numbers. These should not be market movers unless the trend
changed in the housing sector.

The dividend fever is becoming contagious. GDT announced that
they would begin paying a quarterly dividend of 8 cents with
the 2Q. They had suspended the dividend in Nov-1998. Given the
strong cash flow and financial position it is appropriate to
offer a dividend at this time according to the CEO. Last week
QCOM announced a 5 cent dividend and MSFT also announced a
token dividend.

BRL decided to issue a dividend in the form of a 3:2 stock
split. This was the 7th split for BRL. Most investors would
rather see splits than nickels and dimes as that extra share
of stock, even though the three shares are technically the
same value as two, seems to accumulate value faster than the
pocket change from dividends. Ask anybody who held for the
last six BRL splits. MSFT stock gained +.81 cents on its
first day of trading post split at $24.05. I profiled a
play on MSFT in the Editors Plays last Sunday.

ANF announced earnings after the bell and beat the street
but said the outlook for the rest of the year was cloudy.
They said they were being cautious in their planning for
spring merchandise. That means lower inventory levels and
fewer items. This will mean lower sales if retail explodes
again but also lower losses if it fizzles.

Darden Restaurants warned that earnings would be less than
expected because of increased marketing and insurance costs.
They said the economic downturn was causing lower sales as
fewer people ate out. They were spending more in advertising
to attract a smaller audience.

I can't do a market wrap without touching on the Iraq news.
Remember the unconditional approval to allow U2 spy planes
to fly over Iraq? Inspectors finally agreed to Iraq's demands
to notify Iraq at least 48 hours in advance of the exact
route each plane would take. Think about it. I doubt they
will find anything under those conditions. Also, they found
several dozen of the "illegal" missiles and 380 long range
missile engines Iraq had imported illegally in the last four
years in defiance of the current UN restrictions. The
inspectors said they were going to "ASK" Iraq to destroy them
as a show of cooperation. I assume they will actually watch
to see if they are really destroyed and not just take Iraq's
word for it. Is it just me or does it seem like the inspectors
are on the wrong side? In breaking news tonight the Iraq
commission to search out weapons that may have been
overlooked along with important papers that may have been
stored in private residences announced that they have been
unable to find anything. That is reassuring. I am sure the
inspectors are relieved.

The markets rallied for about 30 min today. That was how
long it took for the Dow to race to 8035 and then hover
within 35 points of that level for the rest of the day. There
was an attempt to sell off at 3:PM that took the Dow back down
to 8000 but the attempt failed when short covering and general
buying appeared at the close. The Dow ended back at the 8041
level where it had spent most of the day.

The Nasdaq finally posted back-to-back positive days, a feat
not seen since late January. The Nasdaq closed at 1346 and
well out of the month long trend channel. The nearest resistance
is now 1360 that dates back to Jan-29th. Most tech leaders
showed strong percentage gains with gap open spikes that
indicate short covering rather than pent up buying demand.

The Dow at 8041 is still about 110 points below the top of our
recent trading range. We cannot get excited about the "rally"
until we break that 8150 level to the upside. It will take
more than short covering to make that happen. Using the largest
measure of market strength the Wilshire 5000, the rally stalled
exactly at the top of the down trend channel.

Wilshire 5000 Chart - 60 min


The Iraq problem has not gone away and the rhetoric is continuing.
According to the latest comments it appears the US is still
planning on an attack around March 3rd, maybe as late as March
17th. As this watched pot comes to a boil the markets are not
going to just ignore it. The rally came on indications that the
war might fade away and today is became clear that it was still
on the calendar. Until the Dow breaks 8150 we are still in a
down trend. Ignore either event at your own risk.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

No Weakness
by Steven Price

The bulls are back in town!  At least for the moment.  I
highlighted the oversold bullish percents last week, with the
risk shift less in favor of the bears.  However, those indicators
were still falling and could hardly of predicted a rally of more
than 400 points in the Dow off of Thursday's lows.  However,
after testing support levels and ratcheting lower for the past
month, it appears that the bears have taken their profits and
gotten out of the way.  It is still no easier to predict global
events, but the technical indicators still show the end result of
whatever the motivating factors are and give us a good idea of
the likelihood for reversals, at least on an intermediate basis.

The Dow and OEX both slid into oversold territory last week, in
spite of the rallies on Thursday and Friday.  I term Thursday a
rally since we had such a powerful intraday move, although we
actually ended in the red that day.  It is apparent in hindsight
that it was the beginning of a sentiment shift that has continued
through Tuesday, in spite of anti-aircraft weapons being
stationed around national targets of terrorists, and still no
decisive move on Iraq.  The rumor this morning that Saddam
Hussein was looking to flee through Iran into Russian exile
certainly seems to be the logical reason for the continued rally,
as well as the possibility of further delays on Iraq based on
European consensus, but with a market that had sold off
dramatically in the past month, it may have simply been time for
bargain hunting bulls to step back into the ring. While we are
concentrating on technicals here, there are a couple of signals
that suggest Iraq is still the motivating factor.  We saw a
slight pullback in oil and gold futures continue their nosedive,
both of which indicate that the market expects war to be delayed,
or at least the possibility is not growing nearer.  The drop in
gold could also be the result of strength in the dollar today and
a move out of defensive stocks and back into equities on a value
basis.

We saw a powerful enough reversal to register our largest point
and figure reversal since we rolled over in January, but are
right back into resistance zones from the consolidation that took
place before the recent drop. None of the major indices have
registered buy signals, so we are left to determine whether to
short the rally at resistance, or put faith in the big reversal
giving us an indication of a trend change. Note the bullish
percents, although off their lows, have not yet reversed up and
remain in columns of "O." Looking back at the past few trend
reversals, on either an intermediate or longer-term basis,
depending on your trading window, we see a similar pattern to the
last three days.   October 29 shows a big morning drop that
looked like the continuation of a downtrend over the previous few
days, followed by a big afternoon rally and a close near the
opening price (Doji star), then a big rally the following day.
We then continued higher all the way to Dow 8800, from the
October 29 morning low of 8198, for a 600-point rally.  On
November 13, we got another dip that looked like a continuation,
followed by a close near where we opened, another Doji (not
exactly a Doji, but similar) with a low of 8298, followed by a
big rally the next day.  That rally took us all the way to Dow
9000.  On December 31, we got the Doji after a low of 8242,
followed by a big next day rally and ended up at Dow 8069.  It is
getting harder to rely on history repeating itself as we get
closer to a possible war and the timeframe for the threat is
different.  There are now almost daily announcements that change
the potential for an invasion, as opposed to a cloud hanging over
us pointing to a likely war sometime in the future. That means
any move is more subject to a sudden reversal from what appears
to be a trend. However, a look at the intraday chart of the Dow
is still giving a bullish appearance. The average rallied up as
high as 8076, before getting slammed.  It ticked back below 8000
and at the time (late in the day) it appeared as though we had
finally gotten a blow-off rally and the move appeared about to
reverse possibly in favor of the bears.  But the pullback reached
only as low as 7995, before gaining a second wind and heading
back to 8041.  What appeared to be a rollover now looks like a
pullback to a higher level of support at 8000.

While the action certainly looks attractive to bulls, we are back
into a consolidation range that held us at the end of January and
beginning of February, with a solid top at Dow 8150-8160 and SPX
865-870. It is hard to imagine a rally of over 500 points (which
it would be at that level) not taking a break and those levels
would seem the likely resistance now that we have broken previous
resistance at 8000 and found intraday support there. I'll be
targeting possible bearish plays from those levels, since I still
believe the overall trend is down.  However, if we do break
through, then I'll be watching the previous head and shoulders
neckline break at roughly Dow 8200 and 50% retracement of the
Jan-Feb drop at 8250 for signs of a more convincing trend
reversal to jump on long, even if that reversal is only an
intermediate one.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8041

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7901
 50-dma: 8356
200-dma: 8685

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  851

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  834
 50-dma:  882
200-dma:  919

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1014

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  971
 50-dma: 1017
200-dma: 1019
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  Just when I had been
considering that the SOX was no longer the same reliable
indicator it has been for the broader markets, the action in the
sector turned me into a believer.  When it bottomed at 260,
refusing to break down beyond that level, I saw the major
indices, COMP included, continuing their downtrends.  However, in
hindsight, the SOX may have been forecasting a short-term bottom,
with its reluctance to sink.  That certainly seems to be the case
after the last three days.  The flat lining in the chip stocks
preceded the reversal higher in the Dow, SPX and COMP, and the
SOX has now gained more than 10% since February 7.  Currently
trading at 291, it is approaching the key 300 level, which has
acted as a magnet in the recent past and coincides closely with
the 50-dma at 299.  A move back through those levels would
suggest a run at the descending 200-dma, currently at 337.

52-week High: 641
52-week Low : 209
Current:      291

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 277
 50-dma: 299
200-dma: 337
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX has sunk back to recent support at 35%.  The volatility
measure never managed a break above 40% and the resistance at
that level indicated institutions were selling premium at those
levels, rather than buying it.  That was a bullish sign for
equities and now that we are at support, the action on Wednesday
should give us an indication if the equity run is running out of
steam or has some legs.  A move below 35% could indicate more
bullishness, while a hold above that level may indicate the
premium buyers are back, forecasting a pullback after the recent
run.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 35.56 -1.54
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 48.40 +0.02
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.81        572,696       463,455
Equity Only    0.70        379,517       265,624
OEX            1.58         36,651        47,742
QQQ            1.29         52,584        67,609
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          40.3    - 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    33.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   16.7    + 4     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       34.6    - 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       29.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.10
10-Day Arms Index  1.32
21-Day Arms Index  1.38
55-Day Arms Index  1.33

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       2125           741
NASDAQ     2127          1048

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        45               35
NASDAQ      61               49

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,392
NASDAQ     1,297
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/11/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials slightly decreased long positions, while increasing
shorts by a more significant amount.  The net result was an
increase of 8700 on the short side. Small traders increased longs
by 10,000 and shorts by 2,000.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/21/03      415,028   456,885   (41,857)   (4.8%)
01/28/03      422,232   468,586   (46,354)   (5.2%)
02/04/03      414,543   465,678   (51,135)   (5.8%)
02/11/03      412,333   472,156   (59,823)   (6.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03      148,227    95,356    52,871     21.7%
01/28/03      142,734    85,567    57,167     25.0%
02/04/03      151,174    93,439    57,735     23.5%
02/11/03      161,126    95,618    65,508     25.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced longs by 1,500 and increased shorts
by 3,000, for a 6% increase in overall short position.
Small traders increased the long side by 4,000 contracts,
while leaving shorts close to unchanged.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03       37,174     49,789   (12,615) (14.5%)
01/28/03       37,955     49,321   (11,366) (13.0%)
02/04/03       40,934     50,992   (10,058) (10.9%)
02/11/03       39,412     53,818   (14,406) (15.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03       25,852     6,764    19,088    58.5%
01/28/03       25,814     7,576    18,238    54.6%
02/04/03       25,573     8,648    16,925    49.5%
02/11/03       29,667     8,915    20,752    53.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased long positions by 2,000 contracts and
shorts by 600.  Small traders took a similar approach with an
increase of 800 to the long side and a small decrease to shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/03       16,901    11,031    5,870      21.0%
01/28/03       16,013    11,574    4,439      16.1%
02/04/03       17,596    11,232    6,364      22.1%
02/11/03       19,826    11,800    8,026      25.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/23/03        5,120     8,282    (3,162)   (23.6%)
01/28/03        4,838     7,836    (2,998)   (23.7%)
02/04/03        4,583     9,424    (4,841)   (34.6%)
02/11/03        5,390     9,300    (3,910)   (26.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BULLISH tech play))
===============

Silicon Labs - SLAB - close: 25.62 change: +1.02 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Silicon Laboratories Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets
proprietary high-performance mixed-signal integrated circuits
(ICs) for a broad range of communications markets. Silicon
Laboratories is an ISO9001-certified manufacturer and has applied
for more than 161 patents on its mixed-signal technology.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In recent months, semiconductors that power wireless devices have
provided one of the few bright spots in the chip industry.  So
far investors haven't been given much evidence of a pickup in
demand for the beleaguered tech sector.  With neither businesses
nor consumers rushing out to upgrade PC's, companies such as
Intel and AMD have yet to see a notable pickup in orders.  But in
sharp contrast to this lack of growth, stronger worldwide demand
in the wireless market has created a favorable climate for
companies such as Silicon Labs.  Taiwan Semiconductor, the
world's largest semiconductor foundry, reported recently that
orders for wireless chips were very brisk.  This may have played
a large role in INTC's decision to roll out its own
communications chip.  SLAB's January 22nd earnings announcement
also reflects the fundamental gains that the sub-sector has
experienced.  Citing growing acceptance of its wireless products,
the company reported fourth-quarter income that was four cents
better than Wall Street expectations.  SLAB also differentiated
itself from many of its chip brethren by not forecasting a
decline in revenue during the first quarter of 2002.

These developments helped SLAB to display incredible relative
strength while the semiconductor index drifted steadily lower
over the following weeks.  From January 22nd to its multi-month
low on February 10th, the SOX.X lost 11.6%.  SLAB actually posted
a small gain over the same time period.  Now that index has
actually found a bid, SLAB is powering ahead to levels not seen
since December.  On Tuesday the stock added 4.1% and moved above
resistance at $25.00 and $25.50.  With both the daily stochastics
(5,3,3 setting) and MACD curling higher, we think SLAB is poised
to retrace its early-December losses and move towards the $30.00
level.  Our trigger to enter this paper trade is set at $25.74,
one cent above today's high.  The daily chart shows that the 21-
dma ($23.85) has provided support over the past two weeks.  If
the play is activated we'll use a stop at $23.24.  This is also
below the descending 200-dma.  Traders seeking to minimize
downside risk might want to use a stop a penny or two below the
21-dma.

Annotated daily chart - SLAB:



Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            01/22/03 (confirmed)







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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 02-18-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     SLAB

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD, GWW, JWN
  Closed Bearish Plays:  WHR

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMGN, CYTC, TECD
  Bearish Play Updates:  IDPH

Split Trader / Stock Splits
  Split Announcements:
                         BRL: 3-for-2 split announcement

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Silicon Labs - SLAB - close: 25.62 change: +1.02 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Silicon Laboratories Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets
proprietary high-performance mixed-signal integrated circuits
(ICs) for a broad range of communications markets. Silicon
Laboratories is an ISO9001-certified manufacturer and has applied
for more than 161 patents on its mixed-signal technology.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
In recent months, semiconductors that power wireless devices have
provided one of the few bright spots in the chip industry.  So
far investors haven't been given much evidence of a pickup in
demand for the beleaguered tech sector.  With neither businesses
nor consumers rushing out to upgrade PC's, companies such as
Intel and AMD have yet to see a notable pickup in orders.  But in
sharp contrast to this lack of growth, stronger worldwide demand
in the wireless market has created a favorable climate for
companies such as Silicon Labs.  Taiwan Semiconductor, the
world's largest semiconductor foundry, reported recently that
orders for wireless chips were very brisk.  This may have played
a large role in INTC's decision to roll out its own
communications chip.  SLAB's January 22nd earnings announcement
also reflects the fundamental gains that the sub-sector has
experienced.  Citing growing acceptance of its wireless products,
the company reported fourth-quarter income that was four cents
better than Wall Street expectations.  SLAB also differentiated
itself from many of its chip brethren by not forecasting a
decline in revenue during the first quarter of 2002.

These developments helped SLAB to display incredible relative
strength while the semiconductor index drifted steadily lower
over the following weeks.  From January 22nd to its multi-month
low on February 10th, the SOX.X lost 11.6%.  SLAB actually posted
a small gain over the same time period.  Now that index has
actually found a bid, SLAB is powering ahead to levels not seen
since December.  On Tuesday the stock added 4.1% and moved above
resistance at $25.00 and $25.50.  With both the daily stochastics
(5,3,3 setting) and MACD curling higher, we think SLAB is poised
to retrace its early-December losses and move towards the $30.00
level.  Our trigger to enter this paper trade is set at $25.74,
one cent above today's high.  The daily chart shows that the 21-
dma ($23.85) has provided support over the past two weeks.  If
the play is activated we'll use a stop at $23.24.  This is also
below the descending 200-dma.  Traders seeking to minimize
downside risk might want to use a stop a penny or two below the
21-dma.

Annotated daily chart - SLAB:



Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            01/22/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 39.81 change: -0.58 stop: 42.01

We applaud APD's new corporate responsibility website, which they
announced today.  Unfortunately, Wall Street didn't seem to
respond very well to the news.  Aside from the positive opening,
which was more of a follow through on Friday's late day rally,
the stock spent most of the day in a steady descent.  Bears can
be encouraged by the close under the $40 level but this isn't the
first time this has occurred.  Traders looking to open new
positions need to keep their fingers limber, as this could be an
entry point.  However, conservative traders may feel better about
going short once APD trades below the recent lows of $39.30.  We
did note that volume on today's decline was pretty decent at 1.6
million shares.  The next level of support should be the $35
area.  If the broader indices see a pull back soon then APD's
decline could pick up speed.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      +0.03
Earnings Date:          01/22/02 (confirmed)




---

Grainger - GWW - close: 47.12 change: +0.95 stop: 47.56

Ouch!  The follow through on Friday's strong rally actually had
shares of GWW gapping higher at the open this morning.  While we
have not yet been stopped out at $47.56, we would expect to be
stopped out tomorrow should the rally continue.  Keep in mind
that GWW still has overhead resistance at $48.00 and the 200-dma
currently near $48.40.  Unfortunately for the bears, by the looks
of the MACD, this stock's rally may have more oomph left.  Check
out the PnF chart.  The descent stopped right on its bullish
support trend (yup, the same one we highlighted in the original
write up for GWW).

Picked on February 7th at $45.59
Results since picked:      -1.59
Earnings Date           01/29/03 (confirmed)




---

Nordstrom Inc - JWN - cls: 17.70 chg: +0.39 stop: 18.01

Dow component Wal-Mart took the center stage this morning with
its quarterly earnings report.  The retail giant reported a 10.7%
increase in year-over-year revenue and beat analyst estimates by
one cent.  In terms of forward-looking guidance, WMT said it
expected full-year EPS results of $2.00-$2.05.  This was also in-
line with expectations.  With no major upside surprises for
investors, the bulls didn't have enough fuel to push WMT above
its 50-dma.  The stock experienced an intraday reversal and
finished in the red.  In other retail news this morning, Bears
Stearns came out with comments that suggested the sector would
continue to experience revenue challenges during the first half
of the year.  The firm said geo-political and economic
uncertainty would continue to pressure the group.  Of course, the
same thing could be said about almost any other sector/industry.
Investors showed their skepticism by pushing the RLX.X retail
index to a 1.1% gain.  Meanwhile, shares of Nordstrom outpaced
the RLX.X and powered ahead to a 2.2% gain.  That relative
strength is an indication that JWN could continue towards the
$18.00 level.  However, a 5-minute chart shows that shares
continually found intraday resistance near $17.60.  We'd expect
JWN to retrace its recent gains if that level continues to thwart
the bulls.  A rally through overhead resistance would probably
lead to a violation of our (almost) break-even stop-loss at
$18.01.  After the bell today, Nordstrom announced a quarterly
divided of 10 cents/share.  The dividend will be payable on March
14th to shareholders of record on February 28th.

Picked on January 27th at $17.98
Results since picked:      +0.28
Earnings Date           02/20/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Whirlpool Corp. - WHR - close: 51.57 change: +1.15 stop: *text*

Shareholders of Whirlpool have been granted a reprieve by the
latest broader market short-covering gains.  Last week WHR was
looking vulnerable to heavy selling after breaking below support
at $50.00.  The lack of additional support until $45.00 bolstered
the negative technical picture.  But just when it seemed the
stock would be headed for new relative lows, the bulls were
rescued by a wide-based equity rally that helped WHR to reclaim
the $50.00 level.  On Friday we decided to give the bears at
least one more session to prove themselves, knowing that any
negative geo-political events over the long weekend could quickly
reverse the market's gains.  Instead, Wall Street came to the
conclusion that the U.N. meetings over the weekend effectively
pushed back the timeframe for the beginning of hostilities in
Iraq.  The resulting 1.6% gain in the Dow Jones was bested by
WHR, which tacked on 2.2%.  Bears will note that the stock is
still under resistance near the 50-dma ($52.60).  However, with
the MACD and daily stochastics (5,3,3) showing bullish reversals,
we're not willing to modify our entry strategy in order to
capture a rollover.  We've parting ways with WHR tonight, having
never been triggered in this short play.

Picked on February xxth at xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           02/05/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 53.62 change: +1.02 stop: 50.49

Continuing its rebound from the ascending trendline (now at
$51.65) that began with the September lows, AMGN dragged the
Biotechnology index (BTK.X) higher throughout the day on Tuesday.
If this is a reversal for the BTK, it looks like AMGN is going to
lead the way.  The critical test will be at the $54.00 resistance
level, which turned back the bulls last week.  The BTK did manage
to close just above the 10-dma for the first time in over a month
and that is definitely a positive sign.  But there is still some
stiff resistance to contend with in the $327-330 area before
we'll know if it is truly a trend change in progress.  AMGN is
looking much stronger than the BTK, after the gains of the past
two days, and the bulls are likely to challenge that $54 level
tomorrow, market permitting.  Traders that took advantage of last
week's weakness to enter the play are looking good tonight, while
those still waiting on the sidelines can either enter on a
pullback near the $52.50 support level or on a breakout over
$54.00.  If entering on a breakout, look for confirmation from
the BTK in the form of a push through the 330 level.
Conservative traders might want to use a stop slightly below
$51.00, under last week's low.  For the time being we'll maintain
a stop at $50.49.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +1.11
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)




---

Cytyc Corp. - CYTC - close: 12.97 change: +0.45 stop: 11.99 *new*

Late last week it looked as if the bulls might be getting
fatigued.  Cytyc experienced a rapid rise from the $12.00 level,
and by Thursday the stock had started to underperform the major
indices.  Thus, we were quite pleased to see how CYTC responded
to the continued market gains on Tuesday.  Shares tacked on 3.5%
and closed near the highs of the day, easily outperforming the
Dow Jones and NASDAQ.  We'll now be watching for the bulls to
dispatch whole-number resistance at $13.00.  A move above this
level (which kept a ceiling on CYTC during today's trading) would
present a possible action point for aggressive traders looking to
add to long positions, but remember that this play will be closed
if CYTC trades at or above $13.94.  Longer-term traders can be
targeting an eventual move to the $15.00 area.  At this time
we're going to bump our stop-loss up to $11.99, slightly below
break-even.  Traders seeking to protect a 5% gain could use a
stop at $12.72.  In the event CYTC retraces some of today's
gains, we'd be looking for buyers to emerge at short-term
congestion in the $12.60-$12.75 region.

Picked on February 11th at $12.12
Results since picked:       +0.85
Earnings Date            01/28/03 (confirmed)




---

Tech Data Corp. - TECD - close: 21.95 change: +0.44 stop: 20.49

No overhead resistance and a broader market rally proved to be a
potent combination for TECD on Tuesday.  Our play was activated
at the opening trade of $21.75 when shares gapped above our entry
point.  The stock topped out slightly below $22.00 during the
first five minutes of trading before pulling back into negative
territory for several hours.  But as soon as intraday resistance
at $21.60 was broken with two hours left in the session, the
bears decided to call it a day.  Shares closed near the highs of
the day after tagging a high of $22.00.  This created a three-box
reversal on the point-and-figure chart.  On the daily chart we
see that TECD is continuing to fill in its February 7th gap,
accompanied by a nice upward-curling MACD.  In light of this
technical strength, we think odds are good that shares will
eventually reach our upside target at $23.99.  New entries can be
evaluated on either a move above $22.00 or a pullback to $21.60,
which should now provide some measure of support.  The latter
strategy is better left to more aggressive traders.  Our stop for
this play is set at $20.49.  Those looking for a little less
downside risk could use a stop just below $21.00.

Picked on February 18th at $21.75
Results since picked:       +0.20
Earnings Date            03/17/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - close: 30.65 change: +0.75 stop: 32.82

Back above $30.00.  The bears appeared to be firmly in control
last week when IDPH sank below that support level and reached
levels not seen since early-2000.  However, the past few sessions
of broad market gains have created a very inhospitable climate
for short traders.  Tuesday's action saw shares of IDEC follow
the NASDAQ to a 2.5% gain.  The biotech index, meanwhile, only
squeezed out a 1.9% gain.  Sector bears will be encouraged by the
fact that the BTK.X has not yet broken above its descending
regression channel.  Similarly, IDEC is still mired in a multi-
week trend of descending lows.  At this point there are few signs
that the stock will be able to break out of this trend without
some additional help from a continued NASDAQ rally.  Conservative
traders can maintain a stop at $31.35.  Our stop remains at
$32.82.  Given the fact that IDPH is more than two points above
its relative lows, we would not be looking to target new short
entries at this time.  Speculative traders, however, could think
about adding to bearish positions if IDPH moves back under
$30.00.

Picked on February 13th at $29.99
Results since picked:       -0.66
Earnings Date            01/30/03 (confirmed)






=================================================================
Split Trader / Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

Barr Labs To Offer 3-for-2 Stock Split

Shortly after the market closed this afternoon, Barr Laboratories
(NYSE: BRL) announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a
3-for-2 Stock Split.

The split will be distributed on or about March 17th to
shareholders of record as of February 28th.

This will mark the fourth stock split for BRL over the past seven
years.  Today's announcement comes on the heels of a powerful
multi-month uptrend that has seen the stock gain more than 37%
from its November lows near $55.00.  Shares have spent the past
two sessions moving towards the 52-week highs near $80.00 after
rebounding sharply from the 50-dma at $71.65.

BRL closed at $76.08 on Tuesday.  For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=BRL

About the company
Barr Laboratories, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company
engaged in the development, manufacture and marketing of generic
and proprietary pharmaceuticals. (source: company press release)

==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CTX     Centex Corp                56.45     +2.82
GDW     Golden West Financial      74.72     +0.56
DRL     Doral Financial            30.48     +0.98
BAY     Bayer Aktien               17.74     +0.81
LUX     Luxottica Group            11.95     +0.55

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change

ELBO    Electronics Boutique      14.30     +1.80
DIGE    Digene Corp               16.65     +1.11
NTES    Netease.com               14.64     +1.64

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

GRMN    Garmin Ltd                 33.02     +2.15
SPF     Standard Pacific           27.02     +1.20
RYL     Ryland Group               42.50     +2.18
ECL     Ecolab Inc                 49.10     +1.70
DF      Dean Foods                 42.33     +1.45

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

LLL     L-3 Communications         37.35     -1.85
ODFL    Old Dominion Freight       26.30     -3.05

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

                             




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