PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 02-21-2003 section 1 of 3 Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Bears Losing Grip? Play-of-the-Day: Looking For A Leader Watch List: BLS, CBE, ORCL, SUNW, DAL, and lots more! Market Sentiment: Back from the Edge ****************************************************************** MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ****************************************************************** WE 02-21 WE 02-14 WE 02-07 WE 01-31 DOW 8018.11 +109.31 7908.80 + 44.57 7864.23 -189.58 - 77.20 Nasdaq 1349.02 + 38.85 1310.17 + 27.70 1282.47 - 38.44 - 21.23 S&P-100 429.87 + 7.30 422.57 + 3.78 418.79 - 13.78 - 3.57 S&P-500 848.17 + 13.28 834.89 + 5.20 829.69 - 26.01 - 5.70 W5000 8035.97 +139.03 7896.94 + 23.52 7873.42 -251.65 - 50.67 RUT 364.36 + 5.86 358.50 - 0.28 358.78 - 13.39 - 2.89 TRAN 2096.41 - 6.19 2102.60 - 37.37 2139.97 - 33.38 + 10.02 VIX 34.14 - 2.96 37.10 - 1.35 38.80 + 3.02 + 0.01 VXN 46.10 - 2.28 48.38 - 2.59 48.26 + 1.45 + 1.76 TRIN 0.97 0.58 1.57 0.89 Put/Call 0.85 0.97 0.94 0.84 ****************************************************************** =========== Market Wrap =========== Bears Losing Grip? by Jim Brown As amazing as it may seem the bears were unable to hold back the bulls even after a terrorist scare knocked a positive market for an instant -60 point loss. After three years of consuming high profit meals of prime beef the bears appear to be too fat to get up from the table. Bulls slimmed by a three-year diet and seeing light on the horizon that could signal a new economic cycle are pressing against the gate. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily What a difference a day makes. Just Thursday night we were fighting to hold on to 7900 and looking very heavy. Economic news was about as grim as it gets and nobody wanted to own stocks. What changed? The CPI came in as expected at 0.3%. Break out the champagne! Not worse than expected, not bearish, not a disaster, just inline with estimates! I know we are grabbing at straws here. After taking out food and energy the increase was only +0.1% or completely irrelevant. This counter balanced the soaring PPI number from Thursday. Of course the PPI is a forward indicator which could ripple through the CPI over the next couple months. Still investors cheered. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index fell to 119.5 from last weeks 119.9 with rising unemployment the culprit. This was the second week of declines but investors ignored the indicator as old news. This indicator is a compendium of other reports and includes things like equity prices, mortgage applications, consumer sentiment and unemployment in an effort to provide a single broad based indicator. Early Friday morning an explosion and fire at a refinery just outside Manhattan knocked the legs out of a rebounding market and for a few anxious moments it appeared the bears had won the battle and the October lows were in our sights. The strength of the drop was very strong as traders pulled bids and hit the sell button when they thought there had been a terrorist attack. The barge that exploded had 100,000 barrels of unleaded gas and it made quite a smoke cloud over New York. Once it was determined that it was just an accident instead of an attack the bids returned and traders in cash rushed to buy the dip. Economic conditions did not improve, Osama did not call a truce and Iraq is still being obstinate. It simply appears that traders are accepting as fact the lack of significant risk in their future. The bullish percent on the Dow is only 16%. It has only reached this level three times in the past three years and while it is strongly in bear confirmed territory there is not a lot of risk left or so investors hope. Investors expect a rally or even a new bull market once the shooting starts in Iraq. If we are only days away from that event then it is natural for buyers to be getting eager. There were several reports during the day that caused investors to think it the shooting may be closer than previously thought. There was rumored to be a deal with Turkey as the cooperation blackmail drew into the final hours. The US announced it already had enough troops and equipment in the area to begin the war without the UN and without help. The message to Turkey was clear, take the current deal or our ships leave port and you lose $26 billion in aid. Several hours later vehicles were seen being unloaded. Iraq offered to enter into talk with the US about total disarmament if the US would call off the war. Fat chance. However it was seen as a sign that Saddam is getting worried and could be exiting soon. Italy was rumored to have offered him asylum in an effort to avoid a war. Obviously Italy would be much more desirable an exile location than others previously mentioned. A dictator with $20 billion in stashed cash could live well in Italy for quite awhile. The UN inspectors have reportedly been rebuffed by Iraq and are prepared to present a list of 30 demands to Iraq and the UN on Monday on items that Iraq refuses act upon. This is seen as an ultimatum for Iraq and Iraq is not expected to cheerfully comply. One of the items is the U2 flights whose unconditional approval had more conditions than Michael Jackson's prenuptial agreement. The planes are still not flying. Another condition is the complete and immediate destruction of all the illegal missiles and 380 brand new rocket engines that were smuggled in illegally. Millions of dollars of contraband that Saddam is not going to want to destroy immediately or otherwise. I could go on but you get the picture. It is not nice to fool the inspectors into thinking you are going to cooperate just before a critical UN meeting and then leave them standing at the gates empty handed the following week. The dominoes are starting to line up on the side of the US. The Saudi ambassador put out a plea to other Arab nations to get in line and quit complaining. He said any nation not in the coalition of the willing would not have any say in what a post war Iraq looked like. That is totally unacceptable to the Arab community and when faced with a US and British occupation force the odds are good a democracy could arise that would endanger the status quo of Arab ruling families everywhere. Get in line, no pushing please, plenty of war for everyone. There were also several reports that Special Forces were already on the ground in Iraq and had taken control of several of the smaller oil fields. I find this one hard to believe since Iraq would be protesting loudly. Confirmed reports had 460 UN humanitarian workers leaving Iraq quickly to avoid the rush next week. Russia also extracted its people as well as several other satellite countries. Doors are being boarded up and roads to the borders are reported to be filled with cars. That thud you heard was realization striking home. The US announced that a new resolution would be made on Monday and the rhetoric surrounding it was very strong about how this is the UN's last chance to be relevant. The implications are clear, approve it and let's get on with the project or don't come knocking on the US door the next time you need money or military power. The US and Britain have made it clear they are going to be the world's police force with or without the UN blessing. I know this is tough talk but that is the way they are playing it. All this tough talk, Saddam's offer to negotiate, Turkey's acceptance of some kind of deal and ticked off UN inspectors coming back to retract their cooperation speech all worked together to convince investors that the time was near. Nobody EVER picks the bottom exactly and the penalty for being late to the party is crumbs and no cake. Eager investors decided that the Friday dip could be their last buying opportunity. They were also bolstered by comments from Fed governor Ben Bernanke. Ben said the economy appeared to be in a position where many companies could boost hiring and spending and only a few industries were still suffering. Sure would like to have his crystal ball. He said there were a number of factors that suggest investment and hiring should pick up in the months ahead. In a very bullish speech he said the Fed would not raise rates until well after they were sure a strong recovery was in progress. This hands off policy statement seemed to encourage investors to put cash to work. The rally off the morning dip was very strong and would seem to have been the signal that the February weakness was over. I did say "seem". Despite the 2:1 advances over declines across all markets the new 52 week lows over powered the 52 week highs for the 13th straight day. There was definitely some money coming to market but it was NOT a strong confirmation day that traders are always looking for. It was enough to put us back into the win column for the week and the close was only 55 points below the high of the week. There was obviously some short covering before the weekend just like we saw last Friday. Can't leave those positions at risk in case of a Saddam retirement event. Considering this was an expiration Friday the action was even more interesting. Lately expiration Friday's have been boring and pinned to current strike prices without much movement. There is also the possibility that the morning panic dip and rapid rebound jarred traders out of their plan and therefore the bounce continuation is suspect. While the rebound was nice to see it was not overwhelming. The high for Friday was still below Wednesday's high and the close was still -130 points from the top of our current range. This means we need a +130 confirmation day on Monday before we hit very strong resistance and there are several levels of decent resistance in that path. The bulls will have not only a wall of worry to climb but strong resistance and high event risk. Everybody expects the shooting to start soon and the market to rally on successful press conferences. We tend to forget that in a war both sides shoot. Everybody expects Iraq to roll over in the face of overwhelming force. The wild card is the potential for a doomsday weapon from Saddam. He has nothing to lose. He knows they are coming for him and he will not get out alive. If he has nuclear, biological or chemical weapons most strategists expect him to use them even if it takes out his population as well. This may be smoke and mirrors or worst case scenarios to polarize the public. Nobody knows but the point I am making is that until we see those press conferences bragging about successful operations there is still event risk. We may move up from here but getting over Dow 8150 before the war is going to be a challenge. The Nasdaq however closed near the high for the week and in the black for the year. Tech stocks and small caps are normally the leaders of each cycle and traders are definitely showing buying interest. That interest will face confirmation next week when it tests resistance in the 1360-1365 range. As the only index anywhere close to its 50 DMA (1361) it will be the first to really test the conviction of its buyers. We look constantly at the earnings guidance of every major corporation and very few are saying good things about the future. We moan and groan with every negative prediction or lack of visibility statement. We should also remember that these same corporations did not see the top coming three years ago. They continually told us how great things were and there were endless profits ahead. If they could not see the future then why do we put so much credibility in their dire predictions now? It is because we are trend followers until long after the trend changes. Most investors buy at the top on excessive optimism and sell at the bottom on excessive pessimism. Many claim that the pessimism is not excessive yet. This may be true but when pain and suffering from this busted bubble is weighed I think you will find that pessimism has turned into total complacency. We have been told things were so bad for so long that we have finally become immune to the bad news. Instead of a capitulation bottom to the three year bear market we have seen an exhaustion or consolidation bottom instead. S&P Chart - Weekly Take a close look at the S&P chart. The drop to 806 on Feb-13th was only 38 points above the October low and 31 points above the July low. In a market that lost 50% of its value from the 1553 high, 30+ points is gimme and would count as a higher low triple bottom retest in most trader's eyes. I am not claiming we have seen the bottom. I am not claiming any divine gifts of prophecy. I am just reporting the market sentiment as I see it. The actual charts for the Dow and Nasdaq are still showing a down trend but the second bounce in a week has peaked the interest of eager investors. With 30% of the gains from major market rallies coming in the first five days I am betting that experienced investors are lining up at the door. In October the Dow rebounded +1058 points off the lows in four days. The only way you can be assured of not missing the train is to be aboard before it leaves the station. Now where did I put that ticket? Jim Brown ========================= Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH) ========================= ((new tech play)) Intl Business Mach. - IBM - cls: 79.95 chg: +0.91 stop: *text* Company Description: IBM is the world's largest information technology company, with 80 years of leadership in helping businesses innovate. Drawing on resources from across IBM and key Business Partners, IBM offers a wide range of services, solutions and technologies that enable customers, large and small, to take full advantage of the new era of e-business. (source: company press release) Why we like it: As shocking as it seems we're feeling a little bullish on IBM. The stock has been basing sideways for weeks and buyers are slowly creeping back into the stock. IBM may not be in the Nasdaq Composite or the NDX but check out these two indices as well. They also appear ready for an upside breakout. Who better to lead them than one of the biggest tech companies on the planet (IBM). Technical traders will note several things about the IBM chart. Shares have been channeling sideways from the $75 support level to the $90 resistance level for (4) months. These are larger more intermediate swings that take a couple of weeks to flesh out. We also like the fact that IBM never truly broke down below its 200-dma during it's last consolidation (it tried on 02/13/03) and the $76 level has also been support recently. With a short-term bottom beneath the stock investors may feel more bold in testing the waters with some bullish positions. Short- term, shares of IBM have resistance at $80, 81 and 82 but we feel that once the stock breaks above the $80 mark shorts could call it quits and begin to cover. How are we going to play IBM? Premier will use a trigger at $80.06 to go long. Once we are triggered we'll set an initial stop, somewhat wide, at $76.00 or about 5%. Our short-term profit target will be $84.00, which is the bottom of the gap down from mid-January. Our ultimate goal will be the $88.00 area. Chart readers may want to note the bullish crossover over in IBM's MACD on the daily chart. Also interesting to note are the bullish oscillator crossovers in the weekly chart of IBM. Longer-term, the last few months look like a bullish flag pattern before an upside breakout, but that's probably being too optimistic. In the news, IBM has finally closed its acquisition of Rational Software (RATL) for $2.1 billion. There's also been plenty of news about IBM and the up and coming operating system Linux. Of course this is old news for folks in the computer industry. Linux has been out for nearly ten years. IBM wisely made the decision to throw their muscle behind the new, free OS and is selling twice as many Linux servers as their nearest competitor. Chart of: IBM, Daily. For annotated chart: click here. Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 01/16/03 (confirmed) ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- BellSouth - BLS - close: 22.14 change: -0.90 WHAT TO WATCH: Readers of Wednesday night's Watch List will recall that we had outlined BLS as a possible short play if the FCC decided against deregulating a portion of the long distance industry. On Thursday the agency gave the Baby Bells only a partial victory that most analysts have regarded as negative for companies such as BLS and VZ. While the FCC did eliminate deregulation in broadband networks, it refused to budge on rules that require the Bells to provide long distance network access to competitors at wholesale rates. This news sent BLS sharply lower on Thursday afternoon. We had a hunch that the stock might see some heavy selling because shares had already fallen below support at $22.00. After rebounding slightly above psychological support at $20.00, the stock bounced back today with a 4.3% gain. But interestingly, BLS wasn't able to move above $22.00. This level should continue to challenge the bulls on Monday. A rollover from current levels could have the stock testing the $20.00 region once again. The next level of historical support is at $18.50. --- Cooper Industries - CBE - close: 38.96 change: +0.92 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this electronic controls manufacturer are looking strong after breaking above resistance at $38.00. The stock tacked on 2.4% today, outperforming the market and moving above the multi-month high of $38.86. The lack of overhead resistance is a promising sign for the bulls. The psychological $40.00 level and bearish p-n-f resistance at $43.00 are the only apparent hurdles standing in the way of a rally to the $44.00 level. Long entries could be evaluated on a pullback to $38.00 or a move above $39.00. --- Delta Airlines - DAL - close: 8.42 change: -0.27 WHAT TO WATCH: As if the airlines didn't already have enough problems to deal with, the rising price of oil has given sector investors yet another reason to head for the exits. Just this week Northwest Airlines (NWAC) announced they'd be tacking on $10 to the price of its fares in order to compensate for rising fuel costs. Other major carriers have issued similar rate hikes. The prospect of reduced demand and decreased profit margins has pushed the XAL.X airline index towards its all-time lows near 26.00. DAL looks like a good short play within the group because it recently abandoned support at $8.50. The daily chart shows no additional support until the October lows in the $6.00-$6.50 region. Aggressive traders can think about going short if DAL breaks under $8.25. --- Motorola Inc - MOT - close: 8.25 change: +0.03 WHAT TO WATCH: A protracted sell-off from the $10.00 region took MOT to a multi-month low of $7.68 on February 6th. The stock has since recovered some of those losses, amid news that the company is accelerating the rollout of its "3G" wireless system. On a technical basis it looks like shares might be able to continue their march towards the $10.00, but first the bulls will have to prove themselves by pushing MOT above resistance at $8.50. It's also worth noting that the descending 50-dma at $8.77 might challenge the bulls. However, a glance at the daily chart shows that that particular moving average hasn't had any significant impact on the stock's movement over the past three months. --- Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 12.39 change: +0.08 WHAT TO WATCH: Oracle has spent the last five months trading in a wide ascending regression channel. The stock recently bounced from the bottom of that channel after drifting lower from the January high of $13.36. Over the past four sessions the stock continually found resistance just below $12.50. A move above this level might present a bullish action point. Short-term traders could target a move to the January highs, while those willing to give the stock a month or more to perform could shoot for a rally to the $14.50-$15.00 region. The recent bullish crossover in the weekly stochastics (5,3,3) is an indication that ORCL could extend its multi-month uptrend. --- Zebra Technologies - ZBRA - close: 61.20 change: +1.40 WHAT TO WATCH: This stock provides the answer to following riddle: "What's black, white, and green?" Last Wednesday Zebra put in a short-term bottom near the 200-dma at $55.93. Ever since then it's been displaying nothing but steady upward movement, with shares first moving through the 50-dma and then above the relative high at $61.00. This breakout has cleared the way for a possible retest of the $66-$68 region. The p-n-f chart is looking bullish as well, with shares recently breaking above bearish resistance. A trade at $62.00 would trigger a double-top buy signal. Those with an aggressive strategy could target entries on a move above today's high ($61.30), bearing in mind that the stock might see some profit taking to consolidate its recent gains. More conservative types will probably want to wait for a pullback to the $60.00 area. --- Sun Microsystems - SUNW - close: 3.41 change: +0.01 WHAT TO WATCH: Here's a possible "lottery" play for all you aggressive traders. SUWN looks like it offers a good risk/reward setup at current levels. We'd place a stop slightly under today's low ($3.31) and let it ride, in anticipation of a breakout from the recent sideways consolidation pattern and an eventual retest of the January highs near $4.00. The proverbial fly in the ointment for the bulls is the uncertain technical picture - we just don't see a lot of indications that SUNW is about to explode to the upside. But then again, the stock isn't looking weak either. Shares have held above the 50-dma over the past week and the p-n-f chart recently reversed into a column of "X." Overall it looks like speculative traders could be rewarded with some nice gains if a breakout does occur. If the stock heads the other direction, downside exposure could be kept to a manageable minimum with a tight stop. --- Xylinx Inc - XLNX - close: 23.04 change: +0.48 WHAT TO WATCH: Chip bulls are waiting for the SOX.X to offer some confirmation of sector strength by moving above resistance at 300. Should this occur, XLNX looks like it might have enough momentum to move up to the next level of historical resistance at $26.00. Technicians will note that the stock showed good relative strength today and has managed to find support at the 200-dma ($22.28) during the past two sessions. ------------ RADAR SCREEN ------------ AAP - A plodding multi-month downtrend has taken AAP considerably lower from its October high of $58.34. The stock is currently threatening to break below the relative low of $37.85. A violation of this level could send shares tumbling towards the next level of psychological support at $35.00. A trade at $37.00 would trigger a double-bottom p-n-f sell signal. AMZN - There's plenty of overhead congestion, but AMZN is looking technically strong after moving through its 100-day and 50-day moving averages. Speculative traders could watch for a move above $22.50, initially targeting a rally to the $24.50-$25.00 range. ATK - Playing the defense sector requires a high risk tolerance because of the possibility that geo-political events (such as the outbreak of hostilities in Iraq or a terrorist attack) could result in gapping action for stocks within the group. Traders willing to deal with that risk could consider a short play in ATK. The stock recently rolled over from its multi-week downtrend and is threatening to break under the relative low of $47.40. The weekly chart shows little in the way of immediate support. BSX - Bulls can be pleased with the way BSX plowed through its 50-dma on Friday. With a little help from the broader market, it looks like shares could retrace the steep mid-January losses and move back to the $46.00 region. CAG - Food processing stocks such as CAG tend to move very slowly. However, Conagra is picking up downward speed now that it's fallen into a fast-move region that was created by the steep rally off the July lows near $21.00. Watch for a move below $23.00 to yield a possible action point. DG - Dollar General tanked to new multi-year lows today on the strongest volume since November. With no immediate underlying support, it looks like a violation of the $10.00 level could send DG tumbling towards the next level of historical congestion (dating all the way back to 1996/97) near $8.00. SBL - Shares of this IT company are looking extended after rising nearly 30% from last week's low. The daily chart shows that SBL found resistance in the $10.75-$11.25 region several times over the past year. A rollover from this area might precipitate a round of profit-taking that takes shares back to $9.00 or $9.50. WGO - The past three months haven't been kind to shareholders of Winnebago. The stock has been bleeding lower ever since it topped out near $51.00 in November. The recent violation of support at $32.00 has raised the possibility that shares could retrace the remainder of the late-2001 gains and move to the next level of weekly chart support at $25.00. The bears will first have to contend with $30.00, which previously acted as resistance. ================ Market Sentiment ================ Back from the Edge by Steven Price The geo-political arena threw us another pitch today and reminded us just how sensitive the markets are to those events. What started out as a day in which the markets hovered close to unchanged took some quick turns that left intraday traders with a case of whiplash. The Techs spent most of the morning in the red and the Dow had been climbing higher until our first event of the day splashed across the news screens and just outside the NYSE's windows. An oil tanker carrying 100,000 gallons of gasoline exploded off the coast of Staten Island, sending the markets plummeting as dark clouds of smoke rose just outside of New York. Terrorism fears sent bulls scrambling as the Dow dropped 100 points in less than thirty minutes. As reports came out as to the cause of the explosion, soothing terrorism fears, we rallied back strong and not only made up the loss, but sent the Dow up into the triple- digit gain region. More importantly, the Nasdaq Composite also reversed its earlier weakness and headed into the green. That broad based buying came as a surprise after Thursday's economic data gave investors little to cheer. The rally eventually ran out of steam, but did not give back the gain, holding near the highs of the day. However, after the Dow fell back below 8000, it seemed to have a ceiling at that level. At least until our second event of the day hit the wires. Iraq said it was willing to negotiate with the U.S. directly, if the U.S. pulled troops out of the region. That was all that was needed to break back above that 8000 level and set new intraday highs. While it is unlikely the U.S. will respond to such a request by pulling out troops, it was a bullish development for the markets as it showed evidence that Iraq was softening its stance. Colin Powell said war could be averted if Saddam stepped down. Combine the developments with expiration Friday and we got an intraday environment that left both bulls and bears confused after two days in which it appeared that the bounce from last week had failed and we were headed lower. Just yesterday we were contemplating the just how far the drop might take us, following the terrible economic data. Today, all appeared rosy. The only real economic data we got this morning was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 0.3% in January. While it was the largest jump in 9 months, it was mild compared to the wholesale inflation level we got on Thursday and indicated that inflation at the consumer level is not a big concern. Like the PPI, it was led by increases in fuel costs, as gasoline prices rose 6.6%, oil prices rose 8.6% and natural gas increased 4.6% - its largest gain in 2 years. By the end of the day, the point and figure reversal down in the OEX had reversed course and turned back up into a column of "X" when it traded 430 (using 2.5-point box). The OEX also just missed that level on the close with a finish of 429.86. The Dow had reversed lower into a column of "O" on Thursday, when there were no international developments, but bounced strongly once we were hit with those factors again. It did not move high enough to reverse back into a column of "X," but did close above the pivotal 8000 level, finishing the day at 8017. The SPX has never reversed back down and ended just shy of 850. We are approaching some pivotal levels that should give us an idea of whether we are just seeing an oversold bounce, or the beginning of a significant reversal. As I mentioned last week, the bullish percents are in oversold territory in the Dow and OEX and some of the risk has shifted less in favor of the bears. A reader (thanks Frank) pointed out today that although those bullish percents have yet to reverse, more of the stocks still on sell signals are now in columns of "X". That is certainly a red flag for bears, but does not tell us whether we are seeing short entry opportunities, or the beginning of an internal shift. The red flag is up, the bullish percents still have some room to fall before hitting the July or October lows. We have yet to see the signs of an economic turnaround and even the economy's biggest cheerleaders admit that until the Iraq situation is behind us, we are unlikley to see things get better. The theory goes that businesses are holding off on spending and hiring until they see how the war possibility plays out. However, that theory seems to hang its hat on a scenario that ignores the fact that things had been getting worse before we re- focused on Iraq last year. While we may be due for a cyclical upturn in the economy, so far there is little evidence as to why that upturn will take place any time soon, even without a war. Certainly we can expect to see a decline in fuel prices, which have been the biggest price inflators in the price indices released the past couple of days. However, if that reduction in cost doesn't spur spending on hiring and an increase in production, then we will be out of excuses. With interest rates as low as they are now, it will be harder to continue to spur consumer spending with more rate cuts and although the Fed has other options, they are becoming fewer. Until the economy does show some signs of a real turnaround, it will be tough to sustain a rally. However, the market often reacts to short-term phenomena and as traders that is what we are faced with deciphering. I still favor shorting the bounces, but we must remember to trade what we see, as we don't want to short the bounce all the way back to Dow 9000. If we do get an upturn in bullish percents, accompanied by PnF buy signals and a move over the congestion levels in late January - early February, then I may relent and accept an up move for whatever reason it occurs. However, until that time, I'm still looking over the edge. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10673 52-week Low : 7197 Current : 8018 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 7890 50-dma: 8328 200-dma: 8665 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1176 52-week Low : 768 Current : 848 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 835 50-dma: 879 200-dma: 916 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1734 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1016 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 982 50-dma: 1015 200-dma: 1017 ----------------------------------------------------------------- The Gold and Silver Index (XAU): The XAU dropped hard Friday after attempting a rebound throughout the middle of the week. It actually rallied solidly when the refinery explosion on Staten Island took place, as traders moved quickly out of traditional stocks and into gold. Once it became apparent that the explosion was not due to a terrorist act, the shift went back in the other direction and gold stocks were sold off. Interestingly, though, the drop in the XAU was more severe than that in the gold futures. It did stop, however, right at the 200-dma, bouncing at the end of the day. The move in the XAU also mirrored the opposite move in the U.S. dollar, which sank on the explosion and then rallied strong throughout the afternoon, eventually closing over 100 for the first time since Feb 9. The XAU has now bounced off the 200-dma (71.68) for six of the last eight days, closing below that level once. As long as it holds above that level, it appears that the defensive play is still alive and well. If it begins to break down below that level, look for it to mirror a continued rise in equities and a possible resolution to the Iraq situation, whether it is peace or war. 52-week High: 89 52-week Low : 53 Current : 72 Moving Averages: (Simple) 21-dma: 75 50-dma: 76 200-dma: 71 ----------------------------------------------------------------- The VIX finally gave up the 35% support level, breaking down on today's equity rally to 34.14. 35% had been a bearish indicator for equities as drops in premium levels to this support often signaled a coming pullback. On February 3, it dropped to a closing low of 33.98 and gave a false indication that the equity rally at that time would continue. This time, however, it also broke down below the 200-dma (34.35) While this is certainly not an exact indicator, it is giving bullish signs. The next support level is 30% and if it happens to coincide with Dow 8150, which is strong resistance, that may be the next indication of a pullback and the bears next short entry point. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 34.14 -1.53 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) = 46.10 -2.46 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.85 758,896 648,782 Equity Only 1.23 179,118 220,935 OEX 1.11 59,408 66,108 QQQ 1.32 93,474 123,688 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 40.2 + 0 Bull Correction NASDAQ-100 35.0 + 1 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 16.7 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 34.8 + 0 Bull Correction S&P 100 29.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 1.00 10-Day Arms Index 1.18 21-Day Arms Index 1.32 55-Day Arms Index 1.36 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals Advancers Decliners NYSE 2046 780 NASDAQ 1934 1138 New Highs New Lows NYSE 66 55 NASDAQ 84 70 Volume (in millions) NYSE 1,626 NASDAQ 1,305 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/18/02 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials added 11,000 contracts to the long side and 9,000 to the short side, for a net reduction to the overall short position. Small traders took 5,600 contracts off the long side and 4,000 off the short position. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 01/28/03 422,232 468,586 (46,354) (5.2%) 02/04/03 414,543 465,678 (51,135) (5.8%) 02/11/03 412,333 472,156 (59,823) (6.8%) 02/18/03 423,871 481,871 (58,000) (6.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/02 Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/28/03 142,734 85,567 57,167 25.0% 02/04/03 151,174 93,439 57,735 23.5% 02/11/03 161,126 95,618 65,508 25.5% 02/18/03 155,475 91,102 64,373 26.1% Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 NASDAQ-100 Commercials reduced the long side by 1,000 contracts and the short side by 3,000. Small traders reduced long positions by 4,000 contracts and added 500 contracts to the short side. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 01/28/03 37,955 49,321 (11,366) (13.0%) 02/04/03 40,934 50,992 (10,058) (10.9%) 02/11/03 39,412 53,818 (14,406) (15.5%) 02/18/03 38,486 50,501 (12,015) (13.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/28/03 25,814 7,576 18,238 54.6% 02/04/03 25,573 8,648 16,925 49.5% 02/11/03 29,667 8,915 20,752 53.8% 02/18/03 25,482 9,425 16,057 46.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials reduced long positions by 1,000 contracts and left the short side close to unchanged. Small traders reduced the net short position by 500 contracts. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 01/28/03 16,013 11,574 4,439 16.1% 02/04/03 17,596 11,232 6,364 22.1% 02/11/03 19,826 11,800 8,026 25.4% 02/18/03 18,812 11,939 6,873 22.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/28/03 4,838 7,836 (2,998) (23.7%) 02/04/03 4,583 9,424 (4,841) (34.6%) 02/11/03 5,390 9,300 (3,910) (26.6%) 02/18/03 5,561 8,973 (3,412) (23.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 02-21-2003 section 2 of 3 Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls New Bullish Plays: IBM Bullish Play Updates: SLAB Stock Bottom / Active Trader Bearish Play Updates: APD, JWN Closed Bearish Plays: GWW High Risk/Reward Bullish Play Updates: AMGN, CYTC, TECD Bearish Play Updates: AW, CTAC, IDPH ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ============ NB New Plays ============ ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Intl Business Mach. - IBM - cls: 79.95 chg: +0.91 stop: *text* Company Description: IBM is the world's largest information technology company, with 80 years of leadership in helping businesses innovate. Drawing on resources from across IBM and key Business Partners, IBM offers a wide range of services, solutions and technologies that enable customers, large and small, to take full advantage of the new era of e-business. (source: company press release) Why we like it: As shocking as it seems we're feeling a little bullish on IBM. The stock has been basing sideways for weeks and buyers are slowly creeping back into the stock. IBM may not be in the Nasdaq Composite or the NDX but check out these two indices as well. They also appear ready for an upside breakout. Who better to lead them than one of the biggest tech companies on the planet (IBM). Technical traders will note several things about the IBM chart. Shares have been channeling sideways from the $75 support level to the $90 resistance level for (4) months. These are larger more intermediate swings that take a couple of weeks to flesh out. We also like the fact that IBM never truly broke down below its 200-dma during it's last consolidation (it tried on 02/13/03) and the $76 level has also been support recently. With a short-term bottom beneath the stock investors may feel more bold in testing the waters with some bullish positions. Short- term, shares of IBM have resistance at $80, 81 and 82 but we feel that once the stock breaks above the $80 mark shorts could call it quits and begin to cover. How are we going to play IBM? Premier will use a trigger at $80.06 to go long. Once we are triggered we'll set an initial stop, somewhat wide, at $76.00 or about 5%. Our short-term profit target will be $84.00, which is the bottom of the gap down from mid-January. Our ultimate goal will be the $88.00 area. Chart readers may want to note the bullish crossover over in IBM's MACD on the daily chart. Also interesting to note are the bullish oscillator crossovers in the weekly chart of IBM. Longer-term, the last few months look like a bullish flag pattern before an upside breakout, but that's probably being too optimistic. In the news, IBM has finally closed its acquisition of Rational Software (RATL) for $2.1 billion. There's also been plenty of news about IBM and the up and coming operating system Linux. Of course this is old news for folks in the computer industry. Linux has been out for nearly ten years. IBM wisely made the decision to throw their muscle behind the new, free OS and is selling twice as many Linux servers as their nearest competitor. Chart of: IBM, Daily. For annotated chart: click here. Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 01/16/03 (confirmed) =============== NB Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Silicon Labs - SLAB - cls: 26.58 chg: -0.07 stop: 23.99 As the SOX.X goes, so goes the NASDAQ. At least...that's usually the case. Today was the exception to the rule, when the semiconductor index underperformed the Composite and posted only a fractional gain. A daily chart for the SOX.X shows what might be keeping the bulls restrained. There's overhead resistance at the 300 level, just above the converging 50-day and 100-day moving averages. A lack of sector buyers was evident immediately after the opening bell when the index quickly retraced yesterday's gains. SLAB started off the trading day on a more positive note when it moved through $27.00 and tagged a new relative high of $27.36. Shares then pulled back to what became intraday support at $26.20 and traded under with a slight upward bias for the rest of the session. Whether SLAB can continue to set new highs will likely depend on the SOX's ability to break above resistance. If the index does move above 300, traders looking for new entries in Silicon Labs can think about taking action on a move above today's high. Those with a conservative risk strategy can continue to use a stop slightly below $25.00. Picked on February 20th at $25.74 Results since picked: +0.84 Earnings Date 01/22/03 (confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Air Products - APD - close: 38.83 change: +0.33 stop: 42.01 The column of O's on APD's Point-and-Figure chart keeps getting longer. That's good news for the bears on this stock. However, we should note that the stock bounced pretty strongly off today's lows. We mentioned on Thursday that APD was due for a bounce and the rebound in the broader indices probably helped fuel the move today in APD. Shares did fail late in the day at $39.00 but we would not be surprised to see the stock attempt to bounce even higher on Monday before encountering more resistance. Those traders looking for new positions will want to keep their eyes open for opportunities early next week to initiate new short plays. Premier Investor will keep our stop at $42.01 for the moment but a tighter stop at $41.00 or just north of $40 would not be unreasonable. Picked on January 29th at $39.84 Results since picked: +1.01 Earnings Date: 01/22/02 (confirmed) --- Nordstrom Inc - JWN - cls: 17.24 chg: +0.07 stop: 18.01 Despite a bounce in the RLX retail sector and a strong upgrade of retail giant Target (TGT), shares of JWN lagged behind both the industry and the broader market indices. Bears continue to apply pressure to the stock and there's been no excitement over the company's small earnings gain in their latest report this week. We do continue to see a pattern of higher lows but as addressed earlier this could just be a small bear flag of consolidation before the prevailing downtrend continues. Nordstrom has overhead resistance at $17.75 and again at $18.00, thus our stop loss at 18.01. Traders who are looking for new positions can look for a failed rally at resistance or look for a move below $16.89. It wouldn't hurt to take a wait and see approach with this stock for now. Picked on January 27th at $17.98 Results since picked: +0.74 Earnings Date 02/20/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Grainger - GWW - close: 46.69 change: +0.16 stop: 47.56 Shares of GWW spent the entire week trading in a narrow range near $46.50. We'd been looking for the stock to retrace its rapid gains from last Friday and Monday, but thus far shares haven't made any substantial move back towards the relative low of $43.76. Although the stock has traced a bearish trend of lower lows and lower highs, the bears just haven't been able to make much headway. Today's early morning decline provides a good example of Grainger's staying power. Shares dipped sharply lower after the opening bell but quickly followed the broader market back to the $46.50 area. Rather than wait to see if another intraday sell-off will materialize, we've decided to close this paper trade for a manageable loss of 2.4%. Traders willing to give GWW more time to perform could maintain their short positions with a stop slightly above near-term resistance at $47.00. Picked on February 7th at $45.59 Results since picked: -1.10 Earnings Date 01/29/03 (confirmed) ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 54.70 change: +0.71 stop: 51.18 *new* Last week we elected to take the aggressive strategy of entering this long play while AMGN was still below resistance at $54.00. We expected the stock to continue higher because it was near an ascending uptrend that has acted as support for several months. This technical outlook has been rewarded with steady gains over the past four sessions. Today's action was particularly encouraging, as AMGN stair-stepped higher throughout the session before closing near the highs of the day. The stock has staged a convincing breakout above $54.00. With the daily chart showing no heavy resistance until $65.00 and the p-n-f chart displaying a fresh double-top buy signal, odds of a continued ascent look pretty good. Amgen might even be able to pick up some upside momentum if the BTK.X biotech index breaks out of its descending regression channel. The next challenge for the bulls will be psychological resistance at $55.00. A move above this level might offer a chance to add new long positions. Similarly, a pullback to $54.00 could also present a buying opportunity. At this time we're going to bump our stop up to $51.18, a penny under the rising 50-dma. This is also slightly below the bottom of Amgen's ascending regression channel. Picked on February 14th at $52.51 Results since picked: +2.19 Earnings Date 04/24/03 (unconfirmed) --- Cytyc Corp. - CYTC - close: 12.68 change: -0.41 stop: 12.12 There was no apparent news to explain it, but CYTC took quite a dip on Friday morning. The stock gapped lower and spiked all the way down to a low of $12.24 during the first five minutes of trading. Then, as quickly as it fell, the stock popped back and moved retraced its early losses. That powerful reversal seemed to open the door for a retest of the relative highs. However, the subsequent failure to move above $13.00 raised a warning flag for the bulls. Steady profit-taking throughout the rest of the session took CYTC to a closing loss of 3.1%. This occurred in spite of a strong intraday rally in the broader market. Lately the stock has shown a tendency to trade contrary to the major indexes. So taken alone, today's pullback isn't overly worrisome. What's more concerning is the fact that the decline came on very strong volume of 3.8 million shares - the highest reading in over three weeks. That's a possible sign that CYTC may have set a near-term high. Conservative traders who chose to protect a 5% gain should've been stopped out when the stock headed lower this morning. We've attempted to eliminate any downside exposure with a breakeven stop at $12.12. Those who are willing to give the stock a little more breathing room could use a stop lightly below previous resistance at $12.00. With shares closing safely above $12.12, it'll take another concerted bearish effort to send this play to the dropped list. Next week we'll be looking for shares to stabilize and move back towards the $13.00 region. Picked on February 11th at $12.12 Results since picked: +0.56 Earnings Date 01/28/03 (confirmed) --- Tech Data Corp. - TECD - close: 22.32 change: +0.24 stop: 20.49 Slowly but surely, TECD continues to fill in its February 7th gap. The stock worked its way higher throughout the week without much regard to what the rest of the market was doing. After this steady uptrend the bears weren't in much of a mood to hold short positions over the weekend. TECD enjoyed heavy buying during the final half hour of trading today, which pushed the stock up to a new relative high of $22.33 - not a bad way to close out the week. The daily chart shows that TECD is approaching the descending 21-dma at $23.34. Other than this moving average, there are no visible obstacles standing in the way of a rally up to our profit-target at $23.99. But with the daily stochastics (5,3,3) at overbought levels, it wouldn't come as a surprise to see some backing and filling of the recent gains. If shares do pull back, we'll be looking for buyers to emerge at short-term support/resistance near $21.60. Very conservative traders could use a stop just below this level. In light over the extended daily stochastics, we are not recommending new entries at this time. Picked on February 18th at $21.75 Results since picked: +0.57 Earnings Date 03/17/03 (unconfirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Allied Waste - AW - close: 8.30 change: -0.10 stop: 9.28 A broader market rebound was not enough to prevent AW from setting a new multi-month closing low on Friday. The stock tried and failed to move above Wednesday's low ($8.55) on two separate occasions. The bears then seized upon the second rollover (which occurred around 12:00 EST) and dragged AW steadily lower throughout the session. Shares finished with a loss of 1.1%, clearly underperforming a triple-digit gain in the Dow. This action bodes well for a test of whole-number support at $8.00. Should that level fail, AW could quickly make its way towards our exit target at $7.06. A move below either today's low ($8.27) or $8.00 might provide an entry point for short-term traders looking to leg into new bearish positions. Those who are slightly more speculative could also target another failed intraday rally near $8.55. Conservative traders can continue to use a stop slightly above the descending 200-dma at $9.03. Picked on February 20th at $8.54 Results since picked: +0.24 Earnings Date 02/13/03 (confirmed) --- 1-800 Contacts - CTAC - close: 19.07 change: -0.02 stop: 21.01 CTAC covered a lot of ground on Friday. We'll take it from the top. Shares opened with a clear bearish bias, gapping slightly lower and quickly moving towards $18.00. Things were looking pretty grim for the bulls when this level of historical support was violated within the first half-hour of trading. But just when it appeared as if CTAC would test its rising 100-dma at $17.70, buyers stepped in and quickly pushed shares back above $18.00. The strong broader market rally that materialized around 10:30 EST must've convinced a lot of bears to cover their short positions; CTAC proceeded to recoup all of its morning gains and actually move above $19.00. Shares ultimately finished with a fractional loss. That's quite an intraday swing - but perhaps not too surprising, given the rapid nature of the recent sell- off. The daily chart remains decidedly bearish, with CTAC continuing to fill in the December 3rd gap after tracing a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past three sessions. This play has been given plenty of room to move with a stop at $21.01. But frankly, we don't anticipate that shares will be able to stage a breakout above previous support at $20.00. More conservative traders may want to use a stop just above that level. A failed rally at $20.00 might also provide an opportunity to add to short positions. Also note that our "picked price" has been adjusted to reflect the fact that CTAC gapped lower this morning. Picked on February 20th at $18.80 Results since picked: -0.27 Earnings Date 02/18/03 (confirmed) --- IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - cls: 29.99 chg: +0.49 stop: 31.38 *new* It might be make-or-break time for biotech bears. The BTK.X followed up Thursday's weak performance with a solid 2.0% gain that pushed the biotech index back to the top of its descending downtrend. Previous rallies to this descending trendline have been met with selling. Another rollover would spell big trouble for IDPH, which is mired in steeper downtrend. On Friday the stock pushed its way above $30.00 on an intraday basis before running headlong into near-term resistance at $30.40. This followed a bearish opening to the trading day when IDPH reached its worst levels for the week and moved towards the relative low of $28.38. It's also interesting to note that recent rising action in the daily stochastics (5,3,3) has not been accompanied by similar upward action in the stock price. Those developments aren't going to encourage any buying. However, a breakout in the BTK.X might trump IDPH's negative technicals. Sector leader AMGN (currently on our long play list) has broken above resistance and looks like it could lead the sector higher. With this in mind, we're going to lower our stop-loss to $31.38. That should reduce this plays upside exposure while still forcing IDPH to move above the 21-dma ($31.11) and last week's high of $31.35. More aggressive traders could maintain a stop at $32.06. We are not recommending new short entries at this time. Picked on February 13th at $29.99 Results since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 01/30/03 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 02-21-2003 Section 3 of 3 Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section three: Market Watch for Week of February 24th - Major Earnings - Stock Splits - Economic Reports Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= ========================================== Market Watch for the week of February 24th ========================================== ------------------------ Major Earnings This Week ------------------------ Symbol Company Date Comment EPS Est ------------------------- MONDAY ------------------------------- ABV AmBev - Comp Be Am Mon, Feb 24 -----N/A----- 0.44 BFb Brown-Forman Corp Mon, Feb 24 Before the Bell 0.93 BNL BUNZL PLC Mon, Feb 24 Before the Bell N/A CHK Chesapeake Energy Mon, Feb 24 After the Bell 0.15 HRB H&R Block, Inc. Mon, Feb 24 After the Bell 0.49 LOW Lowe's Companies Mon, Feb 24 Before the Bell 0.33 MGA Magna International Mon, Feb 24 -----N/A----- 1.42 MDG Meridian Gold Inc. Mon, Feb 24 After the Bell 0.10 TRI Triad Hospitals, Inc Mon, Feb 24 After the Bell 0.47 WTW Weight Watchers Intl Mon, Feb 24 After the Bell 0.25 WRI Weingarten Realty Mon, Feb 24 Before the Bell 0.82 WRC Westport Res Corp Mon, Feb 24 -----N/A----- 0.07 WPPGY WPP Group PLC Mon, Feb 24 Before the Bell 0.94 ------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------ AEOS American Egl Otftrs Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell 0.53 ADSK Autodesk, Inc. Tue, Feb 25 After the Bell 0.05 BMO Bank Of Montreal Tue, Feb 25 -----N/A----- N/A BTI British Am Tobacco Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell 0.50 BG Bunge Limited Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell 0.87 CCU Clear Channel Comm Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell 0.27 CSR Credit Suisse Group Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell N/A FD Federated Depart Strs Tue, Feb 25 -----N/A----- 1.95 FMS Fresenius Med Care Tue, Feb 25 -----N/A----- 0.25 HPQ Hewlett-Packard Tue, Feb 25 -----N/A----- 0.27 HIW Highwoods Properties Tue, Feb 25 After the Bell 0.82 HD Home Depot Inc Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell 0.27 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Tue, Feb 25 After the Bell 0.35 PUK Prudential PLC Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell N/A RCI Renal Care Group, Inc Tue, Feb 25 After the Bell 0.49 REP Repsol YPF Tue, Feb 25 -----N/A----- N/A SFD Smithfield Foods Tue, Feb 25 -----N/A----- 0.04 TRLY Terra Lycos Tue, Feb 25 -----N/A----- -0.02 TOL Toll Brothers Tue, Feb 25 Before the Bell 0.61 ----------------------- WEDNESDAY ----------------------------- APPX American Pharm Part Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- 0.34 AHM Amersham Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell N/A CNQ Canadian Natural Res Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell 0.81 CYH Community Health Sys Wed, Feb 26 After the Bell 0.27 RIO Comp Vale do Rio Doce Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- 1.47 DRYR Dreyer's Ice Cream Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell 0.13 EV Eaton Vance Corp. Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell 0.40 ELE Endesa, S.A. Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- N/A HMT Host Marriott Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- 0.30 CLI Mack-Cali Realty Corp Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell 0.87 MRH Mont Re Holdings Ltd. Wed, Feb 26 After the Bell 0.73 NXTP Nextel Partners Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- -0.24 OKE ONEOK Inc. Wed, Feb 26 After the Bell 0.35 PAA Plains All Am Pipe Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell 0.36 ROP Roper Industries Wed, Feb 26 After the Bell 0.27 TLD TDC A/S Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- N/A TNE Tele Norte Leste Part Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- -0.02 TOC The Thomson Corp Wed, Feb 26 -----N/A----- 0.49 TJX The TJX Companies Inc Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell 0.30 TIF Tiffany & Co. Wed, Feb 26 Before the Bell 0.59 ------------------------- THURSDAY ----------------------------- ABB ABB Ltd. Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- N/A AU Anglogold Limited Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- N/A AXA AXA Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- N/A BCM CDN IMP BK COMMERCE Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- N/A CMCSA Comcast Holdings Corp Thu, Feb 27 Before the Bell -0.11 BVN Compania Minas Buen Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- 0.49 E ENI SpA Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- 1.80 ERIE Erie Indemnity Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- 0.49 GPS Gap Inc. Thu, Feb 27 After the Bell 0.27 IRM Iron Mountain Incorp Thu, Feb 27 Before the Bell 0.19 LR Lafarge Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- N/A LTD Limited Brands Thu, Feb 27 Before the Bell 0.64 MRVL Marvell Tech Group Thu, Feb 27 After the Bell 0.16 NOVL Novell Thu, Feb 27 After the Bell N/A PCG PG&E Corporation Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- 0.45 PDE Pride International Thu, Feb 27 After the Bell 0.00 SHPGY Shire Pharm Group Thu, Feb 27 Before the Bell 0.40 TEF Telefonica de Espaqa Thu, Feb 27 Before the Bell N/A TD Toronto Dominion Bank Thu, Feb 27 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------- FRIDAY ------------------------------- AAUK Anglo American PLC Fri, Feb 28 -----N/A----- N/A FIA Fiat S.p.A. Fri, Feb 28 -----N/A----- N/A PSS PAYLESS SHOESOURCE Fri, Feb 28 Before the Bell 0.15 RY Royal Bank of Canada Fri, Feb 28 -----N/A----- N/A ---------------------------------------------- Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks... ---------------------------------------------- Symbol Company Name Ratio Payable Executable ODSY Odyssey Healthcare 3:2 Feb. 21st Feb. 24th LCI Lannett 3:2 Feb. 28th Mar. 03rd EXAC Exactech 2:1 Feb. 28th Mar. 03rd BWINB Baldwin & Lyons 5:4 Mar. 03rd Mar. 04th -------------------------- Economic Reports This Week -------------------------- Q4 Earnings reports continue to stream in but everything will be overshadowed by the looming Iraqi conflict. Economic reports that the street will be watching are the Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Sentiment and the PMI. ============================================================== -For- Monday, 02/24/02 ---------------- Treasury Budget (DM) Jan Forecast: $10.0B Previous: $43.7B Tuesday, 02/25/02 ----------------- Existing Home Sales(DM) Jan Forecast: 5.80M Previous: 5.86M Consumer Confidence(DM) Feb Forecast: 77.0 Previous: 79.0 Wednesday, 02/26/02 ------------------- None Thursday, 02/27/02 ------------------ Initial Claims (BB) 02/22 Forecast: 392K Previous: 402K Durable Orders (BB) Jan Forecast: 1.0% Previous: -0.2% New Home Sales (DM) Jan Forecast: 1045K Previous: 1082K Help-Wanted Index (DM) Jan Forecast: 40 Previous: 39 Friday, 02/28/02 ---------------- GDP-Prel. (BB) Q4 Forecast: 1.1% Previous: 0.7% Chain Deflator-Prel.(BB) Q4 Forecast: 1.8% Previous: 1.8% Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)Feb Forecast: 79.2 Previous: 79.2 Chicago PMI (DM) Feb Forecast: 52.6 Previous: 56.0 Definitions: DM= During the Market BB= Before the Bell AB= After the Bell NA= Not Available ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change AGP Amerigroup 25.88 +0.91 FNF Fidelity National 33.15 +0.92 MRBK Mercantile Bankshares 37.80 +0.69 TOO Too Inc 15.11 +0.63 ACAS American Capital 23.89 +0.54 DKS Dick's Sporting Goods 23.63 +1.51 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SRNA Serena Software 15.07 +1.25 OMG OM Group 9.15 +1.90 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change COO Cooper Companies 28.35 +1.05 EXPE Expedia Inc 66.57 +3.27 NBR Nabors Industries 40.13 +1.38 BR Burlington Resources 46.00 +1.21 DVN Devon Energy 48.23 +1.75 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change RGLD Royal Gold 21.55 -2.58 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change
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