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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 02/21/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-21-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Bears Losing Grip?
Play-of-the-Day:  Looking For A Leader
Watch List:       BLS, CBE, ORCL, SUNW, DAL, and lots more!
Market Sentiment: Back from the Edge

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 02-21        WE 02-14        WE 02-07        WE 01-31
DOW     8018.11 +109.31 7908.80 + 44.57 7864.23 -189.58 - 77.20
Nasdaq  1349.02 + 38.85 1310.17 + 27.70 1282.47 - 38.44 - 21.23
S&P-100  429.87 +  7.30  422.57 +  3.78  418.79 - 13.78 -  3.57
S&P-500  848.17 + 13.28  834.89 +  5.20  829.69 - 26.01 -  5.70
W5000   8035.97 +139.03 7896.94 + 23.52 7873.42 -251.65 - 50.67
RUT      364.36 +  5.86  358.50 -  0.28  358.78 - 13.39 -  2.89
TRAN    2096.41 -  6.19 2102.60 - 37.37 2139.97 - 33.38 + 10.02
VIX       34.14 -  2.96   37.10 -  1.35   38.80 +  3.02 +  0.01
VXN       46.10 -  2.28   48.38 -  2.59   48.26 +  1.45 +  1.76
TRIN       0.97            0.58            1.57            0.89
Put/Call   0.85            0.97            0.94            0.84
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Bears Losing Grip?
by Jim Brown

As amazing as it may seem the bears were unable to hold back
the bulls even after a terrorist scare knocked a positive
market for an instant -60 point loss. After three years of
consuming high profit meals of prime beef the bears appear
to be too fat to get up from the table. Bulls slimmed by a
three-year diet and seeing light on the horizon that could
signal a new economic cycle are pressing against the gate.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


What a difference a day makes. Just Thursday night we were
fighting to hold on to 7900 and looking very heavy. Economic
news was about as grim as it gets and nobody wanted to own
stocks. What changed?

The CPI came in as expected at 0.3%. Break out the champagne!
Not worse than expected, not bearish, not a disaster, just
inline with estimates! I know we are grabbing at straws here.
After taking out food and energy the increase was only +0.1%
or completely irrelevant. This counter balanced the soaring
PPI number from Thursday. Of course the PPI is a forward
indicator which could ripple through the CPI over the next
couple months. Still investors cheered.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index fell to 119.5 from last weeks
119.9 with rising unemployment the culprit. This was the
second week of declines but investors ignored the indicator
as old news. This indicator is a compendium of other reports
and includes things like equity prices, mortgage applications,
consumer sentiment and unemployment in an effort to provide
a single broad based indicator.

Early Friday morning an explosion and fire at a refinery
just outside Manhattan knocked the legs out of a rebounding
market and for a few anxious moments it appeared the bears
had won the battle and the October lows were in our sights.
The strength of the drop was very strong as traders pulled
bids and hit the sell button when they thought there had
been a terrorist attack. The barge that exploded had 100,000
barrels of unleaded gas and it made quite a smoke cloud over
New York. Once it was determined that it was just an accident
instead of an attack the bids returned and traders in cash
rushed to buy the dip.

Economic conditions did not improve, Osama did not call a
truce and Iraq is still being obstinate. It simply appears
that traders are accepting as fact the lack of significant
risk in their future. The bullish percent on the Dow is
only 16%. It has only reached this level three times in the
past three years and while it is strongly in bear confirmed
territory there is not a lot of risk left or so investors
hope. Investors expect a rally or even a new bull market
once the shooting starts in Iraq. If we are only days away
from that event then it is natural for buyers to be getting
eager.

There were several reports during the day that caused
investors to think it the shooting may be closer than
previously thought. There was rumored to be a deal with
Turkey as the cooperation blackmail drew into the final
hours. The US announced it already had enough troops
and equipment in the area to begin the war without the
UN and without help. The message to Turkey was clear,
take the current deal or our ships leave port and you
lose $26 billion in aid. Several hours later vehicles
were seen being unloaded.

Iraq offered to enter into talk with the US about total
disarmament if the US would call off the war. Fat chance.
However it was seen as a sign that Saddam is getting
worried and could be exiting soon. Italy was rumored
to have offered him asylum in an effort to avoid a
war. Obviously Italy would be much more desirable an
exile location than others previously mentioned. A
dictator with $20 billion in stashed cash could live
well in Italy for quite awhile.

The UN inspectors have reportedly been rebuffed by Iraq
and are prepared to present a list of 30 demands to Iraq
and the UN on Monday on items that Iraq refuses act upon.
This is seen as an ultimatum for Iraq and Iraq is not
expected to cheerfully comply. One of the items is the
U2 flights whose unconditional approval had more conditions
than Michael Jackson's prenuptial agreement. The planes
are still not flying. Another condition is the complete
and immediate destruction of all the illegal missiles
and 380 brand new rocket engines that were smuggled in
illegally. Millions of dollars of contraband that Saddam
is not going to want to destroy immediately or otherwise.
I could go on but you get the picture. It is not nice to
fool the inspectors into thinking you are going to
cooperate just before a critical UN meeting and then
leave them standing at the gates empty handed the
following week.

The dominoes are starting to line up on the side of
the US. The Saudi ambassador put out a plea to other
Arab nations to get in line and quit complaining. He
said any nation not in the coalition of the willing
would not have any say in what a post war Iraq looked
like. That is totally unacceptable to the Arab community
and when faced with a US and British occupation force
the odds are good a democracy could arise that would
endanger the status quo of Arab ruling families
everywhere. Get in line, no pushing please, plenty of
war for everyone.

There were also several reports that Special Forces were
already on the ground in Iraq and had taken control of
several of the smaller oil fields. I find this one
hard to believe since Iraq would be protesting loudly.

Confirmed reports had 460 UN humanitarian workers
leaving Iraq quickly to avoid the rush next week.
Russia also extracted its people as well as several
other satellite countries. Doors are being boarded
up and roads to the borders are reported to be filled
with cars. That thud you heard was realization striking
home.

The US announced that a new resolution would be made
on Monday and the rhetoric surrounding it was very
strong about how this is the UN's last chance to be
relevant. The implications are clear, approve it and
let's get on with the project or don't come knocking
on the US door the next time you need money or military
power. The US and Britain have made it clear they are
going to be the world's police force with or without
the UN blessing. I know this is tough talk but that
is the way they are playing it.

All this tough talk, Saddam's offer to negotiate,
Turkey's acceptance of some kind of deal and ticked
off UN inspectors coming back to retract their
cooperation speech all worked together to convince
investors that the time was near.

Nobody EVER picks the bottom exactly and the penalty
for being late to the party is crumbs and no cake.
Eager investors decided that the Friday dip could be
their last buying opportunity. They were also bolstered
by comments from Fed governor Ben Bernanke. Ben said
the economy appeared to be in a position where many
companies could boost hiring and spending and only a
few industries were still suffering. Sure would like
to have his crystal ball. He said there were a number
of factors that suggest investment and hiring should
pick up in the months ahead. In a very bullish speech
he said the Fed would not raise rates until well after
they were sure a strong recovery was in progress. This
hands off policy statement seemed to encourage
investors to put cash to work.

The rally off the morning dip was very strong and would
seem to have been the signal that the February weakness
was over. I did say "seem". Despite the 2:1 advances
over declines across all markets the new 52 week lows
over powered the 52 week highs for the 13th straight day.
There was definitely some money coming to market but it
was NOT a strong confirmation day that traders are always
looking for. It was enough to put us back into the win
column for the week and the close was only 55 points
below the high of the week. There was obviously some
short covering before the weekend just like we saw last
Friday. Can't leave those positions at risk in case of
a Saddam retirement event.

Considering this was an expiration Friday the action was
even more interesting. Lately expiration Friday's have
been boring and pinned to current strike prices without
much movement. There is also the possibility that the
morning panic dip and rapid rebound jarred traders out
of their plan and therefore the bounce continuation is
suspect.

While the rebound was nice to see it was not overwhelming.
The high for Friday was still below Wednesday's high and
the close was still -130 points from the top of our current
range. This means we need a +130 confirmation day on
Monday before we hit very strong resistance and there
are several levels of decent resistance in that path.
The bulls will have not only a wall of worry to climb
but strong resistance and high event risk.

Everybody expects the shooting to start soon and the
market to rally on successful press conferences. We
tend to forget that in a war both sides shoot. Everybody
expects Iraq to roll over in the face of overwhelming
force. The wild card is the potential for a doomsday
weapon from Saddam. He has nothing to lose. He knows
they are coming for him and he will not get out alive.
If he has nuclear, biological or chemical weapons most
strategists expect him to use them even if it takes out
his population as well. This may be smoke and mirrors
or worst case scenarios to polarize the public. Nobody
knows but the point I am making is that until we see
those press conferences bragging about successful
operations there is still event risk. We may move up
from here but getting over Dow 8150 before the war is
going to be a challenge.

The Nasdaq however closed near the high for the week
and in the black for the year. Tech stocks and small
caps are normally the leaders of each cycle and traders
are definitely showing buying interest. That interest
will face confirmation next week when it tests resistance
in the 1360-1365 range. As the only index anywhere close
to its 50 DMA (1361) it will be the first to really
test the conviction of its buyers.

We look constantly at the earnings guidance of every
major corporation and very few are saying good things
about the future. We moan and groan with every negative
prediction or lack of visibility statement. We should
also remember that these same corporations did not see
the top coming three years ago. They continually told
us how great things were and there were endless profits
ahead. If they could not see the future then why do we
put so much credibility in their dire predictions now?
It is because we are trend followers until long after
the trend changes. Most investors buy at the top on
excessive optimism and sell at the bottom on excessive
pessimism. Many claim that the pessimism is not
excessive yet. This may be true but when pain and
suffering from this busted bubble is weighed I think
you will find that pessimism has turned into total
complacency. We have been told things were so bad for
so long that we have finally become immune to the bad
news. Instead of a capitulation bottom to the three
year bear market we have seen an exhaustion or
consolidation bottom instead.

S&P Chart - Weekly


Take a close look at the S&P chart. The drop to 806 on
Feb-13th was only 38 points above the October low and 31
points above the July low. In a market that lost 50% of
its value from the 1553 high, 30+ points is gimme and
would count as a higher low triple bottom retest in most
trader's eyes. I am not claiming we have seen the bottom.
I am not claiming any divine gifts of prophecy. I am
just reporting the market sentiment as I see it. The
actual charts for the Dow and Nasdaq are still showing
a down trend but the second bounce in a week has peaked
the interest of eager investors. With 30% of the gains
from major market rallies coming in the first five days
I am betting that experienced investors are lining up
at the door. In October the Dow rebounded +1058 points
off the lows in four days. The only way you can be
assured of not missing the train is to be aboard before
it leaves the station.

Now where did I put that ticket?

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH)
=========================
((new tech play))

Intl Business Mach. - IBM - cls: 79.95 chg: +0.91 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IBM is the world's largest information technology company, with
80 years of leadership in helping businesses innovate. Drawing on
resources from across IBM and key Business Partners, IBM offers a
wide range of services, solutions and technologies that enable
customers, large and small, to take full advantage of the new era
of e-business.  (source: company press release)

Why we like it:
As shocking as it seems we're feeling a little bullish on IBM.
The stock has been basing sideways for weeks and buyers are
slowly creeping back into the stock.  IBM may not be in the
Nasdaq Composite or the NDX but check out these two indices as
well.  They also appear ready for an upside breakout.  Who better
to lead them than one of the biggest tech companies on the planet
(IBM).  Technical traders will note several things about the IBM
chart.  Shares have been channeling sideways from the $75 support
level to the $90 resistance level for (4) months.  These are
larger more intermediate swings that take a couple of weeks to
flesh out.  We also like the fact that IBM never truly broke down
below its 200-dma during it's last consolidation (it tried on
02/13/03) and the $76 level has also been support recently.  With
a short-term bottom beneath the stock investors may feel more
bold in testing the waters with some bullish positions.  Short-
term, shares of IBM have resistance at $80, 81 and 82 but we feel
that once the stock breaks above the $80 mark shorts could call
it quits and begin to cover.

How are we going to play IBM?  Premier will use a trigger at
$80.06 to go long.  Once we are triggered we'll set an initial
stop, somewhat wide, at $76.00 or about 5%.  Our short-term
profit target will be $84.00, which is the bottom of the gap down
from mid-January.  Our ultimate goal will be the $88.00 area.
Chart readers may want to note the bullish crossover over in
IBM's MACD on the daily chart.  Also interesting to note are the
bullish oscillator crossovers in the weekly chart of IBM.
Longer-term, the last few months look like a bullish flag pattern
before an upside breakout, but that's probably being too
optimistic.

In the news, IBM has finally closed its acquisition of Rational
Software (RATL) for $2.1 billion.  There's also been plenty of
news about IBM and the up and coming operating system Linux.  Of
course this is old news for folks in the computer industry.
Linux has been out for nearly ten years.  IBM wisely made the
decision to throw their muscle behind the new, free OS and is
selling twice as many Linux servers as their nearest competitor.

Chart of: IBM, Daily.
For annotated chart: click here.



Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date            01/16/03 (confirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

BellSouth - BLS - close: 22.14 change: -0.90

WHAT TO WATCH: Readers of Wednesday night's Watch List will
recall that we had outlined BLS as a possible short play if the
FCC decided against deregulating a portion of the long distance
industry.  On Thursday the agency gave the Baby Bells only a
partial victory that most analysts have regarded as negative for
companies such as BLS and VZ.  While the FCC did eliminate
deregulation in broadband networks, it refused to budge on rules
that require the Bells to provide long distance network access to
competitors at wholesale rates.  This news sent BLS sharply lower
on Thursday afternoon.  We had a hunch that the stock might see
some heavy selling because shares had already fallen below
support at $22.00.  After rebounding slightly above psychological
support at $20.00, the stock bounced back today with a 4.3% gain.
But interestingly, BLS wasn't able to move above $22.00.  This
level should continue to challenge the bulls on Monday.  A
rollover from current levels could have the stock testing the
$20.00 region once again.  The next level of historical support
is at $18.50.




---

Cooper Industries - CBE - close: 38.96 change: +0.92

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this electronic controls manufacturer
are looking strong after breaking above resistance at $38.00.
The stock tacked on 2.4% today, outperforming the market and
moving above the multi-month high of $38.86.  The lack of
overhead resistance is a promising sign for the bulls.  The
psychological $40.00 level and bearish p-n-f resistance at $43.00
are the only apparent hurdles standing in the way of a rally to
the $44.00 level.  Long entries could be evaluated on a pullback
to $38.00 or a move above $39.00.




---

Delta Airlines - DAL - close: 8.42 change: -0.27

WHAT TO WATCH: As if the airlines didn't already have enough
problems to deal with, the rising price of oil has given sector
investors yet another reason to head for the exits.  Just this
week Northwest Airlines (NWAC) announced they'd be tacking on $10
to the price of its fares in order to compensate for rising fuel
costs.  Other major carriers have issued similar rate hikes.  The
prospect of reduced demand and decreased profit margins has
pushed the XAL.X airline index towards its all-time lows near
26.00.  DAL looks like a good short play within the group because
it recently abandoned support at $8.50.  The daily chart shows no
additional support until the October lows in the $6.00-$6.50
region.  Aggressive traders can think about going short if DAL
breaks under $8.25.




---

Motorola Inc - MOT - close: 8.25 change: +0.03

WHAT TO WATCH: A protracted sell-off from the $10.00 region took
MOT to a multi-month low of $7.68 on February 6th.  The stock has
since recovered some of those losses, amid news that the company
is accelerating the rollout of its "3G" wireless system.  On a
technical basis it looks like shares might be able to continue
their march towards the $10.00, but first the bulls will have to
prove themselves by pushing MOT above resistance at $8.50.  It's
also worth noting that the descending 50-dma at $8.77 might
challenge the bulls.  However, a glance at the daily chart shows
that that particular moving average hasn't had any significant
impact on the stock's movement over the past three months.




---

Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 12.39 change: +0.08

WHAT TO WATCH: Oracle has spent the last five months trading in a
wide ascending regression channel.  The stock recently bounced
from the bottom of that channel after drifting lower from the
January high of $13.36.  Over the past four sessions the stock
continually found resistance just below $12.50.  A move above
this level might present a bullish action point.  Short-term
traders could target a move to the January highs, while those
willing to give the stock a month or more to perform could shoot
for a rally to the $14.50-$15.00 region.  The recent bullish
crossover in the weekly stochastics (5,3,3) is an indication that
ORCL could extend its multi-month uptrend.




---

Zebra Technologies - ZBRA - close: 61.20 change: +1.40

WHAT TO WATCH: This stock provides the answer to following
riddle: "What's black, white, and green?"  Last Wednesday Zebra
put in a short-term bottom near the 200-dma at $55.93.  Ever
since then it's been displaying nothing but steady upward
movement, with shares first moving through the 50-dma and then
above the relative high at $61.00.  This breakout has cleared the
way for a possible retest of the $66-$68 region.  The p-n-f chart
is looking bullish as well, with shares recently breaking above
bearish resistance.  A trade at $62.00 would trigger a double-top
buy signal.  Those with an aggressive strategy could target
entries on a move above today's high ($61.30), bearing in mind
that the stock might see some profit taking to consolidate its
recent gains.  More conservative types will probably want to wait
for a pullback to the $60.00 area.




---

Sun Microsystems - SUNW - close: 3.41 change: +0.01

WHAT TO WATCH: Here's a possible "lottery" play for all you
aggressive traders.  SUWN looks like it offers a good risk/reward
setup at current levels.  We'd place a stop slightly under
today's low ($3.31) and let it ride, in anticipation of a
breakout from the recent sideways consolidation pattern and an
eventual retest of the January highs near $4.00.  The proverbial
fly in the ointment for the bulls is the uncertain technical
picture - we just don't see a lot of indications that SUNW is
about to explode to the upside.  But then again, the stock isn't
looking weak either.  Shares have held above the 50-dma over the
past week and the p-n-f chart recently reversed into a column of
"X."  Overall it looks like speculative traders could be rewarded
with some nice gains if a breakout does occur.  If the stock
heads the other direction, downside exposure could be kept to a
manageable minimum with a tight stop.




---

Xylinx Inc - XLNX - close: 23.04 change: +0.48

WHAT TO WATCH: Chip bulls are waiting for the SOX.X to offer some
confirmation of sector strength by moving above resistance at
300.  Should this occur, XLNX looks like it might have enough
momentum to move up to the next level of historical resistance at
$26.00.  Technicians will note that the stock showed good
relative strength today and has managed to find support at the
200-dma ($22.28) during the past two sessions.




------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

AAP - A plodding multi-month downtrend has taken AAP considerably
lower from its October high of $58.34.  The stock is currently
threatening to break below the relative low of $37.85.  A
violation of this level could send shares tumbling towards the
next level of psychological support at $35.00.  A trade at $37.00
would trigger a double-bottom p-n-f sell signal.

AMZN - There's plenty of overhead congestion, but AMZN is looking
technically strong after moving through its 100-day and 50-day moving
averages.  Speculative traders could watch for a move
above $22.50, initially targeting a rally to the $24.50-$25.00
range.

ATK - Playing the defense sector requires a high risk tolerance
because of the possibility that geo-political events (such as the
outbreak of hostilities in Iraq or a terrorist attack) could
result in gapping action for stocks within the group.  Traders
willing to deal with that risk could consider a short play in
ATK.  The stock recently rolled over from its multi-week
downtrend and is threatening to break under the relative low of
$47.40.  The weekly chart shows little in the way of immediate
support.

BSX - Bulls can be pleased with the way BSX plowed through its
50-dma on Friday.  With a little help from the broader market, it
looks like shares could retrace the steep mid-January losses and
move back to the $46.00 region.

CAG - Food processing stocks such as CAG tend to move very
slowly.  However, Conagra is picking up downward speed now that
it's fallen into a fast-move region that was created by the steep
rally off the July lows near $21.00.  Watch for a move below
$23.00 to yield a possible action point.

DG - Dollar General tanked to new multi-year lows today on the
strongest volume since November.  With no immediate underlying
support, it looks like a violation of the $10.00 level could send
DG tumbling towards the next level of historical congestion
(dating all the way back to 1996/97) near $8.00.

SBL - Shares of this IT company are looking extended after rising
nearly 30% from last week's low.  The daily chart shows that SBL
found resistance in the $10.75-$11.25 region several times over
the past year.  A rollover from this area might precipitate a
round of profit-taking that takes shares back to $9.00 or $9.50.

WGO - The past three months haven't been kind to shareholders of
Winnebago.  The stock has been bleeding lower ever since it
topped out near $51.00 in November.  The recent violation of
support at $32.00 has raised the possibility that shares could
retrace the remainder of the late-2001 gains and move to the next
level of weekly chart support at $25.00.  The bears will first
have to contend with $30.00, which previously acted as
resistance.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Back from the Edge
by Steven Price

The geo-political arena threw us another pitch today and reminded
us just how sensitive the markets are to those events.  What
started out as a day in which the markets hovered close to
unchanged took some quick turns that left intraday traders with a
case of whiplash.  The Techs spent most of the morning in the red
and the Dow had been climbing higher until our first event of the
day splashed across the news screens and just outside the NYSE's
windows.

An oil tanker carrying 100,000 gallons of gasoline exploded off
the coast of Staten Island, sending the markets plummeting as
dark clouds of smoke rose just outside of New York.  Terrorism
fears sent bulls scrambling as the Dow dropped 100 points in less
than thirty minutes. As reports came out as to the cause of the
explosion, soothing terrorism fears, we rallied back strong and
not only made up the loss, but sent the Dow up into the triple-
digit gain region.  More importantly, the Nasdaq Composite also
reversed its earlier weakness and headed into the green.   That
broad based buying came as a surprise after Thursday's economic
data gave investors little to cheer.

The rally eventually ran out of steam, but did not give back the
gain, holding near the highs of the day.  However, after the Dow
fell back below 8000, it seemed to have a ceiling at that level.
At least until our second event of the day hit the wires.  Iraq
said it was willing to negotiate with the U.S. directly, if the
U.S. pulled troops out of the region.  That was all that was
needed to break back above that 8000 level and set new intraday
highs. While it is unlikely the U.S. will respond to such a
request by pulling out troops, it was a bullish development for
the markets as it showed evidence that Iraq was softening its
stance.  Colin Powell said war could be averted if Saddam stepped
down. Combine the developments with expiration Friday and we got
an intraday environment that left both bulls and bears confused
after two days in which it appeared that the bounce from last
week had failed and we were headed lower.   Just yesterday we
were contemplating the just how far the drop might take us,
following the terrible economic data.  Today, all appeared rosy.
The only real economic data we got this morning was the Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which rose 0.3% in January.  While it was the
largest jump in 9 months, it was mild compared to the wholesale
inflation level we got on Thursday and indicated that inflation
at the consumer level is not a big concern.  Like the PPI, it was
led by increases in fuel costs, as gasoline prices rose 6.6%, oil
prices rose 8.6% and natural gas increased 4.6% - its largest
gain in 2 years.

By the end of the day, the point and figure reversal down in the
OEX had reversed course and turned back up into a column of "X"
when it traded 430 (using 2.5-point box).  The OEX also just
missed that level on the close with a finish of 429.86. The Dow
had reversed lower into a column of "O" on Thursday, when there
were no international developments, but bounced strongly once we
were hit with those factors again. It did not move high enough to
reverse back into a column of "X," but did close above the
pivotal 8000 level, finishing the day at 8017.   The SPX has
never reversed back down and ended just shy of 850.

We are approaching some pivotal levels that should give us an
idea of whether we are just seeing an oversold bounce, or the
beginning of a significant reversal. As I mentioned last week,
the bullish percents are in oversold territory in the Dow and OEX
and some of the risk has shifted less in favor of the bears.  A
reader (thanks Frank) pointed out today that although those
bullish percents have yet to reverse, more of the stocks still on
sell signals are now in columns of "X".   That is certainly a red
flag for bears, but does not tell us whether we are seeing short
entry opportunities, or the beginning of an internal shift.   The
red flag is up, the bullish percents still have some room to fall
before hitting the July or October lows.

We have yet to see the signs of an economic turnaround and even
the economy's biggest cheerleaders admit that until the Iraq
situation is behind us, we are unlikley to see things get better.
The theory goes that businesses are holding off on spending and
hiring until they see how the war possibility plays out.
However, that theory seems to hang its hat on a scenario that
ignores the fact that things had been getting worse before we re-
focused on Iraq last year. While we may be due for a cyclical
upturn in the economy, so far there is little evidence as to why
that upturn will take place any time soon, even without a war.
Certainly we can expect to see a decline in fuel prices, which
have been the biggest price inflators in the price indices
released the past couple of days.  However, if that reduction in
cost doesn't spur spending on hiring and an increase in
production, then we will be out of excuses.  With interest rates
as low as they are now, it will be harder to continue to spur
consumer spending with more rate cuts and although the Fed has
other options, they are becoming fewer.

Until the economy does show some signs of a real turnaround, it
will be tough to sustain a rally.  However, the market often
reacts to short-term phenomena and as traders that is what we are
faced with deciphering.  I still favor shorting the bounces, but
we must remember to trade what we see, as we don't want to short
the bounce all the way back to Dow 9000.  If we do get an upturn
in bullish percents, accompanied by PnF buy signals and a move
over the congestion levels in late January - early February, then
I may relent and accept an up move for whatever reason it occurs.
However, until that time, I'm still looking over the edge.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8018

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7890
 50-dma: 8328
200-dma: 8665

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  848

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  835
 50-dma:  879
200-dma:  916

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1016

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  982
 50-dma: 1015
200-dma: 1017
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU): The XAU dropped hard Friday
after attempting a rebound throughout the middle of the week. It
actually rallied solidly when the refinery explosion on Staten
Island took place, as traders moved quickly out of traditional
stocks and into gold.  Once it became apparent that the explosion
was not due to a terrorist act, the shift went back in the other
direction and gold stocks were sold off.  Interestingly, though,
the drop in the XAU was more severe than that in the gold
futures. It did stop, however, right at the 200-dma, bouncing at
the end of the day.  The move in the XAU also mirrored the
opposite move in the U.S. dollar, which sank on the explosion and
then rallied strong throughout the afternoon, eventually closing
over 100 for the first time since Feb 9.  The XAU has now bounced
off the 200-dma (71.68) for six of the last eight days, closing
below that level once. As long as it holds above that level, it
appears that the defensive play is still alive and well.  If it
begins to break down below that level, look for it to mirror a
continued rise in equities and a possible resolution to the Iraq
situation, whether it is peace or war.

52-week High: 89
52-week Low : 53
Current     : 72

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 75
 50-dma: 76
200-dma: 71
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX finally gave up the 35% support level, breaking down on
today's equity rally to 34.14.  35% had been a bearish indicator
for equities as drops in premium levels to this support often
signaled a coming pullback.  On February 3, it dropped to a
closing low of 33.98 and gave a false indication that the equity
rally at that time would continue.  This time, however, it also
broke down below the 200-dma (34.35) While this is certainly not
an exact indicator, it is giving bullish signs.  The next support
level is 30% and if it happens to coincide with Dow 8150, which
is strong resistance, that may be the next indication of a
pullback and the bears next short entry point.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 34.14 -1.53
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 46.10 -2.46
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.85        758,896       648,782
Equity Only    1.23        179,118       220,935
OEX            1.11         59,408        66,108
QQQ            1.32         93,474       123,688
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          40.2    + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    35.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   16.7    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       34.8    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       29.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.00
10-Day Arms Index  1.18
21-Day Arms Index  1.32
55-Day Arms Index  1.36

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       2046           780
NASDAQ     1934          1138

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        66               55
NASDAQ      84               70

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,626
NASDAQ     1,305
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/18/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added 11,000 contracts to the long side and 9,000 to
the short side, for a net reduction to the overall short
position. Small traders took 5,600 contracts off the long side
and 4,000 off the short position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/28/03      422,232   468,586   (46,354)   (5.2%)
02/04/03      414,543   465,678   (51,135)   (5.8%)
02/11/03      412,333   472,156   (59,823)   (6.8%)
02/18/03      423,871   481,871   (58,000)   (6.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/28/03      142,734    85,567    57,167     25.0%
02/04/03      151,174    93,439    57,735     23.5%
02/11/03      161,126    95,618    65,508     25.5%
02/18/03      155,475    91,102    64,373     26.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials reduced the long side by 1,000 contracts and the
short side by 3,000.  Small traders reduced long positions by
 4,000 contracts and added 500 contracts to the short side.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/28/03       37,955     49,321   (11,366) (13.0%)
02/04/03       40,934     50,992   (10,058) (10.9%)
02/11/03       39,412     53,818   (14,406) (15.5%)
02/18/03       38,486     50,501   (12,015) (13.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/28/03       25,814     7,576    18,238    54.6%
02/04/03       25,573     8,648    16,925    49.5%
02/11/03       29,667     8,915    20,752    53.8%
02/18/03       25,482     9,425    16,057    46.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced long positions by 1,000 contracts and left
the short side close to unchanged.  Small traders reduced the net
short position by 500 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/28/03       16,013    11,574    4,439      16.1%
02/04/03       17,596    11,232    6,364      22.1%
02/11/03       19,826    11,800    8,026      25.4%
02/18/03       18,812    11,939    6,873      22.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/28/03        4,838     7,836    (2,998)   (23.7%)
02/04/03        4,583     9,424    (4,841)   (34.6%)
02/11/03        5,390     9,300    (3,910)   (26.6%)
02/18/03        5,561     8,973    (3,412)   (23.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-21-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     IBM
  Bullish Play Updates:  SLAB

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD, JWN
  Closed Bearish Plays:  GWW

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMGN, CYTC, TECD
  Bearish Play Updates:  AW, CTAC, IDPH



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Intl Business Mach. - IBM - cls: 79.95 chg: +0.91 stop: *text*

Company Description:
IBM is the world's largest information technology company, with
80 years of leadership in helping businesses innovate. Drawing on
resources from across IBM and key Business Partners, IBM offers a
wide range of services, solutions and technologies that enable
customers, large and small, to take full advantage of the new era
of e-business.  (source: company press release)

Why we like it:
As shocking as it seems we're feeling a little bullish on IBM.
The stock has been basing sideways for weeks and buyers are
slowly creeping back into the stock.  IBM may not be in the
Nasdaq Composite or the NDX but check out these two indices as
well.  They also appear ready for an upside breakout.  Who better
to lead them than one of the biggest tech companies on the planet
(IBM).  Technical traders will note several things about the IBM
chart.  Shares have been channeling sideways from the $75 support
level to the $90 resistance level for (4) months.  These are
larger more intermediate swings that take a couple of weeks to
flesh out.  We also like the fact that IBM never truly broke down
below its 200-dma during it's last consolidation (it tried on
02/13/03) and the $76 level has also been support recently.  With
a short-term bottom beneath the stock investors may feel more
bold in testing the waters with some bullish positions.  Short-
term, shares of IBM have resistance at $80, 81 and 82 but we feel
that once the stock breaks above the $80 mark shorts could call
it quits and begin to cover.

How are we going to play IBM?  Premier will use a trigger at
$80.06 to go long.  Once we are triggered we'll set an initial
stop, somewhat wide, at $76.00 or about 5%.  Our short-term
profit target will be $84.00, which is the bottom of the gap down
from mid-January.  Our ultimate goal will be the $88.00 area.
Chart readers may want to note the bullish crossover over in
IBM's MACD on the daily chart.  Also interesting to note are the
bullish oscillator crossovers in the weekly chart of IBM.
Longer-term, the last few months look like a bullish flag pattern
before an upside breakout, but that's probably being too
optimistic.

In the news, IBM has finally closed its acquisition of Rational
Software (RATL) for $2.1 billion.  There's also been plenty of
news about IBM and the up and coming operating system Linux.  Of
course this is old news for folks in the computer industry.
Linux has been out for nearly ten years.  IBM wisely made the
decision to throw their muscle behind the new, free OS and is
selling twice as many Linux servers as their nearest competitor.

Chart of: IBM, Daily.
For annotated chart: click here.



Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <-- See text
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date            01/16/03 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Silicon Labs - SLAB - cls: 26.58 chg: -0.07 stop: 23.99

As the SOX.X goes, so goes the NASDAQ.  At least...that's usually
the case.  Today was the exception to the rule, when the
semiconductor index underperformed the Composite and posted only
a fractional gain.  A daily chart for the SOX.X shows what might
be keeping the bulls restrained.  There's overhead resistance at
the 300 level, just above the converging 50-day and 100-day
moving averages.  A lack of sector buyers was evident immediately
after the opening bell when the index quickly retraced
yesterday's gains.  SLAB started off the trading day on a more
positive note when it moved through $27.00 and tagged a new
relative high of $27.36.  Shares then pulled back to what became
intraday support at $26.20 and traded under with a slight upward
bias for the rest of the session.  Whether SLAB can continue to
set new highs will likely depend on the SOX's ability to break
above resistance.  If the index does move above 300, traders
looking for new entries in Silicon Labs can think about taking
action on a move above today's high.  Those with a conservative
risk strategy can continue to use a stop slightly below $25.00.

Picked on February 20th at $25.74
Results since picked:       +0.84
Earnings Date            01/22/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 38.83 change: +0.33 stop: 42.01

The column of O's on APD's Point-and-Figure chart keeps getting
longer.  That's good news for the bears on this stock.  However,
we should note that the stock bounced pretty strongly off today's
lows.  We mentioned on Thursday that APD was due for a bounce and
the rebound in the broader indices probably helped fuel the move
today in APD.  Shares did fail late in the day at $39.00 but we
would not be surprised to see the stock attempt to bounce even
higher on Monday before encountering more resistance.  Those
traders looking for new positions will want to keep their eyes
open for opportunities early next week to initiate new short
plays.  Premier Investor will keep our stop at $42.01 for the
moment but a tighter stop at $41.00 or just north of $40 would
not be unreasonable.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      +1.01
Earnings Date:          01/22/02 (confirmed)




---

Nordstrom Inc - JWN - cls: 17.24 chg: +0.07 stop: 18.01

Despite a bounce in the RLX retail sector and a strong upgrade of
retail giant Target (TGT), shares of JWN lagged behind both the
industry and the broader market indices.  Bears continue to apply
pressure to the stock and there's been no excitement over the
company's small earnings gain in their latest report this week.
We do continue to see a pattern of higher lows but as addressed
earlier this could just be a small bear flag of consolidation
before the prevailing downtrend continues.  Nordstrom has
overhead resistance at $17.75 and again at $18.00, thus our stop
loss at 18.01.  Traders who are looking for new positions can
look for a failed rally at resistance or look for a move below
$16.89.  It wouldn't hurt to take a wait and see approach with
this stock for now.

Picked on January 27th at $17.98
Results since picked:      +0.74
Earnings Date           02/20/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Grainger - GWW - close: 46.69 change: +0.16 stop: 47.56

Shares of GWW spent the entire week trading in a narrow range
near $46.50.  We'd been looking for the stock to retrace its
rapid gains from last Friday and Monday, but thus far shares
haven't made any substantial move back towards the relative low
of $43.76.  Although the stock has traced a bearish trend of
lower lows and lower highs, the bears just haven't been able to
make much headway.  Today's early morning decline provides a good
example of Grainger's staying power.  Shares dipped sharply lower
after the opening bell but quickly followed the broader market
back to the $46.50 area.  Rather than wait to see if another
intraday sell-off will materialize, we've decided to close this
paper trade for a manageable loss of 2.4%.  Traders willing to
give GWW more time to perform could maintain their short
positions with a stop slightly above near-term resistance at
$47.00.

Picked on February 7th at $45.59
Results since picked:      -1.10
Earnings Date           01/29/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 54.70 change: +0.71 stop: 51.18 *new*

Last week we elected to take the aggressive strategy of entering
this long play while AMGN was still below resistance at $54.00.
We expected the stock to continue higher because it was near an
ascending uptrend that has acted as support for several months.
This technical outlook has been rewarded with steady gains over
the past four sessions.  Today's action was particularly
encouraging, as AMGN stair-stepped higher throughout the session
before closing near the highs of the day.  The stock has staged a
convincing breakout above $54.00.  With the daily chart showing
no heavy resistance until $65.00 and the p-n-f chart displaying a
fresh double-top buy signal, odds of a continued ascent look
pretty good.  Amgen might even be able to pick up some upside
momentum if the BTK.X biotech index breaks out of its descending
regression channel.  The next challenge for the bulls will be
psychological resistance at $55.00.  A move above this level
might offer a chance to add new long positions.  Similarly, a
pullback to $54.00 could also present a buying opportunity.  At
this time we're going to bump our stop up to $51.18, a penny
under the rising 50-dma.  This is also slightly below the bottom
of Amgen's ascending regression channel.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +2.19
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)




---

Cytyc Corp. - CYTC - close: 12.68 change: -0.41 stop: 12.12

There was no apparent news to explain it, but CYTC took quite a
dip on Friday morning.  The stock gapped lower and spiked all the
way down to a low of $12.24 during the first five minutes of
trading.  Then, as quickly as it fell, the stock popped back and
moved retraced its early losses.  That powerful reversal seemed
to open the door for a retest of the relative highs.  However,
the subsequent failure to move above $13.00 raised a warning flag
for the bulls.  Steady profit-taking throughout the rest of the
session took CYTC to a closing loss of 3.1%.  This occurred in
spite of a strong intraday rally in the broader market.  Lately
the stock has shown a tendency to trade contrary to the major
indexes.  So taken alone, today's pullback isn't overly
worrisome.  What's more concerning is the fact that the decline
came on very strong volume of 3.8 million shares - the highest
reading in over three weeks.  That's a possible sign that CYTC
may have set a near-term high.  Conservative traders who chose to
protect a 5% gain should've been stopped out when the stock
headed lower this morning.  We've attempted to eliminate any
downside exposure with a breakeven stop at $12.12.  Those who are
willing to give the stock a little more breathing room could use
a stop lightly below previous resistance at $12.00.  With shares
closing safely above $12.12, it'll take another concerted bearish
effort to send this play to the dropped list.  Next week we'll be
looking for shares to stabilize and move back towards the $13.00
region.

Picked on February 11th at $12.12
Results since picked:       +0.56
Earnings Date            01/28/03 (confirmed)




---

Tech Data Corp. - TECD - close: 22.32 change: +0.24 stop: 20.49

Slowly but surely, TECD continues to fill in its February 7th
gap.  The stock worked its way higher throughout the week without
much regard to what the rest of the market was doing.  After this
steady uptrend the bears weren't in much of a mood to hold short
positions over the weekend.  TECD enjoyed heavy buying during the
final half hour of trading today, which pushed the stock up to a
new relative high of $22.33 - not a bad way to close out the
week.  The daily chart shows that TECD is approaching the
descending 21-dma at $23.34.  Other than this moving average,
there are no visible obstacles standing in the way of a rally up
to our profit-target at $23.99.  But with the daily stochastics
(5,3,3) at overbought levels, it wouldn't come as a surprise to
see some backing and filling of the recent gains.  If shares do
pull back, we'll be looking for buyers to emerge at short-term
support/resistance near $21.60.  Very conservative traders could
use a stop just below this level.  In light over the extended
daily stochastics, we are not recommending new entries at this
time.

Picked on February 18th at $21.75
Results since picked:       +0.57
Earnings Date            03/17/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Allied Waste - AW - close: 8.30 change: -0.10 stop: 9.28

A broader market rebound was not enough to prevent AW from
setting a new multi-month closing low on Friday.  The stock tried
and failed to move above Wednesday's low ($8.55) on two separate
occasions.  The bears then seized upon the second rollover (which
occurred around 12:00 EST) and dragged AW steadily lower
throughout the session.  Shares finished with a loss of 1.1%,
clearly underperforming a triple-digit gain in the Dow.  This
action bodes well for a test of whole-number support at $8.00.
Should that level fail, AW could quickly make its way towards our
exit target at $7.06.  A move below either today's low ($8.27) or
$8.00 might provide an entry point for short-term traders looking
to leg into new bearish positions.  Those who are slightly more
speculative could also target another failed intraday rally near
$8.55.  Conservative traders can continue to use a stop slightly
above the descending 200-dma at $9.03.

Picked on February 20th at $8.54
Results since picked:      +0.24
Earnings Date           02/13/03 (confirmed)




---

1-800 Contacts - CTAC - close: 19.07 change: -0.02 stop: 21.01

CTAC covered a lot of ground on Friday.  We'll take it from the
top.  Shares opened with a clear bearish bias, gapping slightly
lower and quickly moving towards $18.00.  Things were looking
pretty grim for the bulls when this level of historical support
was violated within the first half-hour of trading.  But just
when it appeared as if CTAC would test its rising 100-dma at
$17.70, buyers stepped in and quickly pushed shares back above
$18.00.  The strong broader market rally that materialized around
10:30 EST must've convinced a lot of bears to cover their short
positions; CTAC proceeded to recoup all of its morning gains and
actually move above $19.00.  Shares ultimately finished with a
fractional loss.  That's quite an intraday swing - but perhaps
not too surprising, given the rapid nature of the recent sell-
off.  The daily chart remains decidedly bearish, with CTAC
continuing to fill in the December 3rd gap after tracing a series
of lower highs and lower lows over the past three sessions.  This
play has been given plenty of room to move with a stop at $21.01.
But frankly, we don't anticipate that shares will be able to
stage a breakout above previous support at $20.00.  More
conservative traders may want to use a stop just above that
level.  A failed rally at $20.00 might also provide an
opportunity to add to short positions.  Also note that our
"picked price" has been adjusted to reflect the fact that CTAC
gapped lower this morning.

Picked on February 20th at $18.80
Results since picked:       -0.27
Earnings Date            02/18/03 (confirmed)




---

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - cls: 29.99 chg: +0.49 stop: 31.38 *new*

It might be make-or-break time for biotech bears.  The BTK.X
followed up Thursday's weak performance with a solid 2.0% gain
that pushed the biotech index back to the top of its descending
downtrend.  Previous rallies to this descending trendline have
been met with selling.  Another rollover would spell big trouble
for IDPH, which is mired in steeper downtrend.  On Friday the
stock pushed its way above $30.00 on an intraday basis before
running headlong into near-term resistance at $30.40.  This
followed a bearish opening to the trading day when IDPH reached
its worst levels for the week and moved towards the relative low
of $28.38.  It's also interesting to note that recent rising
action in the daily stochastics (5,3,3) has not been accompanied
by similar upward action in the stock price.  Those developments
aren't going to encourage any buying.  However, a breakout in the
BTK.X might trump IDPH's negative technicals.  Sector leader AMGN
(currently on our long play list) has broken above resistance and
looks like it could lead the sector higher.  With this in mind,
we're going to lower our stop-loss to $31.38.  That should reduce
this plays upside exposure while still forcing IDPH to move above
the 21-dma ($31.11) and last week's high of $31.35.  More
aggressive traders could maintain a stop at $32.06.  We are not
recommending new short entries at this time.

Picked on February 13th at $29.99
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            01/30/03 (confirmed)







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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
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subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 02-21-2003
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of February 24th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==========================================
Market Watch for the week of February 24th
==========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ABV    AmBev - Comp Be Am    Mon, Feb 24  -----N/A-----       0.44
BFb    Brown-Forman Corp     Mon, Feb 24  Before the Bell     0.93
BNL    BUNZL PLC             Mon, Feb 24  Before the Bell      N/A
CHK    Chesapeake Energy     Mon, Feb 24  After the Bell      0.15
HRB    H&R Block, Inc.       Mon, Feb 24  After the Bell      0.49
LOW    Lowe's Companies      Mon, Feb 24  Before the Bell     0.33
MGA    Magna International   Mon, Feb 24  -----N/A-----       1.42
MDG    Meridian Gold Inc.    Mon, Feb 24  After the Bell      0.10
TRI    Triad Hospitals, Inc  Mon, Feb 24  After the Bell      0.47
WTW    Weight Watchers Intl  Mon, Feb 24  After the Bell      0.25
WRI    Weingarten Realty     Mon, Feb 24  Before the Bell     0.82
WRC    Westport Res Corp     Mon, Feb 24  -----N/A-----       0.07
WPPGY  WPP Group PLC         Mon, Feb 24  Before the Bell     0.94


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AEOS   American Egl Otftrs   Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell     0.53
ADSK   Autodesk, Inc.        Tue, Feb 25  After the Bell      0.05
BMO    Bank Of Montreal      Tue, Feb 25  -----N/A-----        N/A
BTI    British Am Tobacco    Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell     0.50
BG     Bunge Limited         Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell     0.87
CCU    Clear Channel Comm    Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell     0.27
CSR    Credit Suisse Group   Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell      N/A
FD     Federated Depart Strs Tue, Feb 25  -----N/A-----       1.95
FMS    Fresenius Med Care    Tue, Feb 25  -----N/A-----       0.25
HPQ    Hewlett-Packard       Tue, Feb 25  -----N/A-----       0.27
HIW    Highwoods Properties  Tue, Feb 25  After the Bell      0.82
HD     Home Depot Inc        Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell     0.27
ORLY   O'Reilly Automotive   Tue, Feb 25  After the Bell      0.35
PUK    Prudential PLC        Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell      N/A
RCI    Renal Care Group, Inc Tue, Feb 25  After the Bell      0.49
REP    Repsol YPF            Tue, Feb 25  -----N/A-----        N/A
SFD    Smithfield Foods      Tue, Feb 25  -----N/A-----       0.04
TRLY   Terra Lycos           Tue, Feb 25  -----N/A-----      -0.02
TOL    Toll Brothers         Tue, Feb 25  Before the Bell     0.61


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

APPX   American Pharm Part   Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----       0.34
AHM    Amersham              Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell      N/A
CNQ    Canadian Natural Res  Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell     0.81
CYH    Community Health Sys  Wed, Feb 26  After the Bell      0.27
RIO    Comp Vale do Rio Doce Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----       1.47
DRYR   Dreyer's Ice Cream    Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell     0.13
EV     Eaton Vance Corp.     Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell     0.40
ELE    Endesa, S.A.          Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
HMT    Host Marriott         Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----       0.30
CLI    Mack-Cali Realty Corp Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell     0.87
MRH    Mont Re Holdings Ltd. Wed, Feb 26  After the Bell      0.73
NXTP   Nextel Partners       Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----      -0.24
OKE    ONEOK Inc.            Wed, Feb 26  After the Bell      0.35
PAA    Plains All Am Pipe    Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell     0.36
ROP    Roper Industries      Wed, Feb 26  After the Bell      0.27
TLD    TDC A/S               Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
TNE    Tele Norte Leste Part Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----      -0.02
TOC    The Thomson Corp      Wed, Feb 26  -----N/A-----       0.49
TJX    The TJX Companies Inc Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell     0.30
TIF    Tiffany & Co.         Wed, Feb 26  Before the Bell     0.59


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ABB    ABB Ltd.              Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
AU     Anglogold Limited     Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
AXA    AXA                   Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
BCM    CDN IMP BK COMMERCE   Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
CMCSA  Comcast Holdings Corp Thu, Feb 27  Before the Bell    -0.11
BVN    Compania Minas Buen   Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----       0.49
E      ENI SpA               Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----       1.80
ERIE   Erie Indemnity        Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----       0.49
GPS    Gap Inc.              Thu, Feb 27  After the Bell      0.27
IRM    Iron Mountain Incorp  Thu, Feb 27  Before the Bell     0.19
LR     Lafarge               Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
LTD    Limited Brands        Thu, Feb 27  Before the Bell     0.64
MRVL   Marvell Tech Group    Thu, Feb 27  After the Bell      0.16
NOVL   Novell                Thu, Feb 27  After the Bell       N/A
PCG    PG&E Corporation      Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----       0.45
PDE    Pride International   Thu, Feb 27  After the Bell      0.00
SHPGY  Shire Pharm Group     Thu, Feb 27  Before the Bell     0.40
TEF    Telefonica de Espaqa  Thu, Feb 27  Before the Bell      N/A
TD     Toronto Dominion Bank Thu, Feb 27  -----N/A-----        N/A


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

AAUK   Anglo American PLC    Fri, Feb 28  -----N/A-----        N/A
FIA    Fiat S.p.A.           Fri, Feb 28  -----N/A-----        N/A
PSS    PAYLESS SHOESOURCE    Fri, Feb 28  Before the Bell     0.15
RY     Royal Bank of Canada  Fri, Feb 28  -----N/A-----        N/A


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare        3:2      Feb. 21st   Feb. 24th
LCI     Lannett                   3:2      Feb. 28th   Mar. 03rd
EXAC    Exactech                  2:1      Feb. 28th   Mar. 03rd
BWINB   Baldwin & Lyons           5:4      Mar. 03rd   Mar. 04th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Q4 Earnings reports continue to stream in but everything will
be overshadowed by the looming Iraqi conflict.  Economic reports
that the street will be watching are the Existing Home Sales,
Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Sentiment and the PMI.

==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 02/24/02
----------------
Treasury Budget (DM)    Jan  Forecast: $10.0B  Previous:   $43.7B


Tuesday, 02/25/02
-----------------
Existing Home Sales(DM) Jan  Forecast:  5.80M  Previous:    5.86M
Consumer Confidence(DM) Feb  Forecast:   77.0  Previous:     79.0


Wednesday, 02/26/02
-------------------
None


Thursday, 02/27/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   02/22  Forecast:   392K  Previous:     402K
Durable Orders (BB)     Jan  Forecast:   1.0%  Previous:    -0.2%
New Home Sales (DM)     Jan  Forecast:  1045K  Previous:    1082K
Help-Wanted Index (DM)  Jan  Forecast:     40  Previous:       39


Friday, 02/28/02
----------------
GDP-Prel. (BB)           Q4  Forecast:   1.1%  Previous:     0.7%
Chain Deflator-Prel.(BB) Q4  Forecast:   1.8%  Previous:     1.8%
Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)Feb  Forecast:   79.2  Previous:     79.2
Chicago PMI (DM)        Feb  Forecast:   52.6  Previous:     56.0


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

AGP     Amerigroup                 25.88     +0.91
FNF     Fidelity National          33.15     +0.92
MRBK    Mercantile Bankshares      37.80     +0.69
TOO     Too Inc                    15.11     +0.63
ACAS    American Capital           23.89     +0.54
DKS     Dick's Sporting Goods      23.63     +1.51

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name              Close     Change

SRNA    Serena Software           15.07     +1.25
OMG     OM Group                   9.15     +1.90

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

COO     Cooper Companies           28.35     +1.05
EXPE    Expedia Inc                66.57     +3.27
NBR     Nabors Industries          40.13     +1.38
BR      Burlington Resources       46.00     +1.21
DVN     Devon Energy               48.23     +1.75

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

RGLD    Royal Gold                 21.55     -2.58

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

                             




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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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