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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 02/28/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-28-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Holding Pattern
Play-of-the-Day:  Dial "C" for Climbing Higher
Watch List:       BBI, CAH, LLTC, EBAY, PG, and lots more!
Market Sentiment: Last Gasp?

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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 02-28        WE 02-21        WE 02-14        WE 02-07
DOW     7891.08 -127.03 8018.11 +109.31 7908.80 + 44.57 -189.58
Nasdaq  1337.54 - 11.48 1349.02 + 38.85 1310.17 + 27.70 - 38.44
S&P-100  425.36 -  4.51  429.87 +  7.30  422.57 +  3.78 - 13.78
S&P-500  841.15 -  7.02  848.17 + 13.28  834.89 +  5.20 - 26.01
W5000   7972.62 - 63.35 8035.97 +139.03 7896.94 + 23.52 -251.65
RUT      360.52 -  3.84  364.36 +  5.86  358.50 -  0.28 - 13.39
TRAN    2049.05 - 47.36 2096.41 -  6.19 2102.60 - 37.37 - 33.38
VIX       34.15 +  0.01   34.14 -  2.96   37.10 -  1.35 +  3.02
VXN       45.65 -  0.45   46.10 -  2.28   48.38 -  2.59 +  1.45
TRIN       0.84            0.97            0.58            1.57
Put/Call   0.59            0.85            0.97            0.94
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Holding Pattern
by Jim Brown

Great economic news failed to rally the markets on Friday as
everyone holds their breath for the next chapter in the made
for TV mini series "Iraqnaphobia". Everyone is in a holding
pattern waiting for the climax. Joe Millionaire and The
Bachlorette may have garnered 65 million viewers in their
final episodes but Iraqnaphobia has a worldwide audience in
the billions. In the greatest puppet show on earth the UN
security council is playing out their roles while their
strings are being pulled from thousands of miles away.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily



The economic story took a turn for the better Friday with
the Q4 GDP revision coming in at +1.4% and significantly
better than the +0.7% previously announced. This means the
fourth quarter was better than expected and could have
given us a stronger start on 2003. This took some of the
pressure off the estimates for Q1 and suggests the Fed may
be right about staying out of a recessionary second dip.
The majority of the gains came from consumer spending
and shows that despite the lackluster holiday sales the
consumer was still alive and well.

Also adding to positive investor sentiment was the Chicago
PMI which came in at 54.9 compared to estimates of 52.9.
Production and new orders expanded slightly, very slightly
but they are starting an upward trend by building on last
months gains. Employment was still in negative territory
but marginally better than January. Profits were down due
to increased marketing expenses and strong competition
for available demand. Still it was a positive report.

Consumer Sentiment fell again in February to 79.9 but
it was better than expected. This is the lowest level
since 1993. This nine-year low was based on higher gas
prices, unemployment and market concerns. The nine-year
low in the sentiment was still not as bad as the 64 in
the confidence number earlier in the week. The markets
traded up on the better than expected bad news. Hey,
we will take what we can get!

We may wish we had some extra goodwill stored up on
Monday when we get the ISM report along with the Personal
Income/Spending report. The New York version of the ISM
was released on Friday and it took a serious hit from
January levels. After showing signs of a recovery in
January the numbers dropped to just barely above the
Jan-2002 levels when the city was still digging out from
the 9/11 attack. The -3.1% drop in the index was led
by current conditions which fell from 51.9 to 34.5 and
non-manufacturing conditions which fell from 51.5 to
33.0. Finished goods fell to 37 from 50. This is not
a positive sign and could be a leading indicator for
the national ISM on Monday. The ISM will be followed
on Wednesday by the Beige Book, Thursday the Factory
Orders and Productivity and on Friday by the Nonfarm
Payrolls.

ICI made it official this week. Equity mutual funds
saw outflows of $466 million in January. This was the
first time since 1990 that January had a negative cash
flow. January is a strong retirement contribution month
and normally sees inflows in the $7-$10 billion range.
Several other fund flow companies had speculated on
this over the last few weeks but ICI is the recognized
authority. With brokers like Charles Schwab, Ameritrade,
Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch laying off brokers in
waves it does not take a call to Miss Cleo to know that
trading volume has shrunk to very low levels. Many
investors have simply given up on the market. This
disgust also shows in the lack of conviction we have
been seeing. Many will not be back when the market
recovers because they have used the money for other
investments like real estate.

The oil saga continues but the prices have started
declining as reality begins to sink into traders. With
Venezuela coming back online and Saudi Arabia agreeing
to make up any post war shortfall the traders have
lost the incentive to run up the prices. Shorts are
loading up again after bailing out at rape and pillage
prices this week. Once the capitulation at $39.99 a
barrel was over the reality begin to appear. Consumers
will not be seeing any real price relief for about a
month as that high priced oil works its way through
the system.

France was one of the biggest exporters of Iraq oil
and part of their motivation, although they would
never admit it, was the potential loss of oil and
trade from Iraq. Russia, who announced on Friday
that they WOULD veto any resolution that would lead
to war is also a heavy trade partner with Saddam. There
was a big photo session just last week with a bunch of
Russian dignitaries hand shaking and backslapping with
Saddam and his gang. It is nice to claim humanitarian
reasons for antiwar vetoes but under the surface you
are liable to find ulterior motives.

The semiconductor index set a new six-week high on
Friday after Dan Niles made some positive comments
about Intel. Niles said he expected Intel to affirm
the LOWER end of their guidance at their mid quarter
update on March 6th. He said he expects them to raise
low end guidance from $6.5B to $6.7B while leaving the
high end of the range at $7B. Intel jumped on the news
despite his warning that revenue for the next quarter
could see a -3% drop due to worse than expected
seasonal factors from the soft economy. Niles based
his positive comments on the widening spread between
Intel and AMD in chip performance. He felt that the
leading edge chips were so far in advance of AMD that
Intel would not need to lower prices to compete and
could gain higher margins on the newer products. He
also mentioned the broadening Intel product line.
This how the next bull market starts. One little
comment at a time followed by new products, upgraded
guidance and even an increase in profits. I can't
wait.

The Dow posted its third losing month in a row and
appears to have a total lack of direction. The index
is stuck in a very narrow trading range growing narrower
by the day. The 7900 level appears to be a very powerful
price magnet and neither bulls or bears can move it
off that number for more than brief periods. This is
a true stalemate.

The Nasdaq has fared better with the semi stocks helping
to hold it up as well as a variety of misc techs. MSFT
is not one of them. MSFT is closing in on $23 again
after their 2:1 split two weeks ago. Still the Nasdaq
managed to tack on another +13 points on Friday and
has been in a steady uptrend for a week. 1350 to 1360
will still be a problem and with the Intel update on
Thursday it is not likely to move significantly over
those levels soon. The bargain hunters are out but they
are being very picky. Some of the Nasdaq gains on Friday
were due to short covering as nobody wanted to be long
over the weekend if a random war broke out somewhere.

I reported on Thursday that 57% of the S&P had warned
about their 1Q outlook. There is a strong contingent
of analysts that believe this is a severe overstatement
out of performance fear. If company officers warn of
possible shortfalls that never come to pass there is
no harm done and no legal liability. With the economy
cooling even further while everyone waits for the war
to start, companies cannot predict any guidance due to
limited visibility. To protect against disaster they
are lowering guidance or canceling guidance completely.
It does not mean the economy died. It only means they
do not want to be optimistic in a cloudy environment.

This sets us up for some positive surprises eventually
if the war is over quickly and business returns to
normal. Of course the question remains "what is normal"?
With the current mixed economic reports and 57% of
companies warning, what will happen after the war. If
we had a seven day war followed by a seven day rally
then what? If we have a post war rally from 7900 to
8900 by the end of March then there is a substantial
risk for negative earnings surprises. Earnings would
not yet have the benefit of any post war improvement
AND we would be entering into the worst six months
of the year on a historical basis. Positive surprises
could only come after the economy had some time to
take action after the war. I have not changed my
outlook for a post war rally. I am only cautioning
against any irrational exuberance in the weeks
following that rally.

If you still doubt there will be a war you would be
surprised to hear that up to 20 B2 stealth bombers
left Missouri on Friday for the gulf. These are the
state of the art radar evading, very expensive aircraft.
Each can carry 20 2,000-pound satellite guided bombs
while entering and exiting undetected. It is interesting
to note that they are going to be based somewhere near
the gulf. In past conflicts they flew from Missouri to
Kosovo and Afghanistan dropped their bombs and returned
to Missouri without landing. That is one long ride.
The Pentagon has already deployed the F117 fighter
bombers and the B1 stealth bombers to the region over
the last two weeks. One B2 can carry more precision
guided ordnance than an entire squadron of F117s.

The carrier Nimitz and its battle group was ordered to
the gulf today and will be leaving on Monday. The full
complement of ships, planes, missiles and bombers
ordered deployed on Friday cost well over $100 billion.
Doesn't sound like President Bush is concerned about
the UN resolution and it does not look like he plans
on backing down.

Saddam is scheduled to "BEGIN" destroying missiles and
components "IN PRINCIPLE" on Saturday under UN supervision.
There are already cracks in the plans and I would not be
surprised to hear that there is some delay over the
weekend. Saturday was the deadline to have DESTROYED,
past tense, the missiles. If Saddam delays then the US
will be quick to point out that fact to all concerned.
I would expect a highly visible destruction of several
missiles with TV cameras rolling so Saddam can get
maximum effect for the dollars lost. Getting past that
initial group once the cameras stop rolling could be
where the fun starts. In the end does it really matter?
Not hardly. The US is coming and everything we are
seeing now is just the pre-show.

Speaking of shows, we all participate in the biggest
reality show of all every day. The "Who Wants to be a
Millionaire" investment challenge. Lately it could have
doubled as segments for "Fear Factor" with the extreme
danger and high volatility. Those celebrity investors
who have not used their "Get me Out of Here" card will
end up as true "Survivors" when the series ends.
However, I doubt there will be much of a market for
reruns. Playboy asked the girls of Starbucks "Are You
Hot" and announced they were going to do a series on
the coffee kittens. Obviously this is a "Bare Market"
in which many traders will be glad to invest.

Enter Passively, Exit aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH)
=========================
((new tech play))

Comverse Technology - CMVT - cls: 10.20 chg: +0.49 stop: 9.39

Company Description:
Comverse, a unit of Comverse Technology, Inc., is the world's
leading provider of software and systems enabling network-based
multimedia enhanced communications services. More than 400
wireless and wireline telecommunications network operators, in
more than 100 countries, have selected Comverse's enhanced
services systems and software, which enable the provision of
revenue-generating value-added services. These include call
answering with one-touch call return, short messaging services,
IP-based unified messaging (voice, fax, and email in a single
mailbox), 2.5G/3G multimedia messaging (MMS), instant
communications, wireless information and entertainment services,
voice-controlled dialing, messaging and browsing, prepaid
wireless services, and additional personal communication
services. Other Comverse Technology business units include:
Verint Systems, a leading provider of analytic solutions for
communications interception, digital video security and
surveillance, and enterprise business intelligence; and Ulticom,
a leading provider of service enabling network software for
wireless, wireline, and Internet communications. Comverse
Technology is an S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 Index company
(source: company press release)

Why we like it:
The broader markets have been range bound for weeks.  Granted,
they seem to have a bearish tint to them, if we're going to be
stuck in a range bound market, let's play something that's
moving, even if it's range bound too.  This is definitely a
trader's play as the overall fundamental for tech companies
really hasn't improved much.  It is coincidental that CMVT came
out with a bunch of news about new products and contract about
the time shares turned around mid-February at the bottom of its
channel (see chart below).  We really like CMVT now that it has
build support (again) at its 200-dma and broken out above the $10
psychological level and its 50-dma.  Bears will be prone to cover
shorts and bulls could be willing to ride the stock up to its
next resistance level near $12.00.

Volume was pretty strong on the breakout today with 4.6 million
shares compared to the three-month average of just 2.18 shares a
day.  A pull back to $10.00 looks very attractive but shares
already tried to pull back Friday afternoon.  We're going to
start the play with a short-term upside target of $11.50 and a
stop loss at $9.39.  More conservative traders can attempt to
limit their risk with a stop under $9.75.

Annotated chart of CMVT:


Picked on February 28th at $10.20
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date            11/26/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Blockbuster Inc - BBI - close: 15.30 change: +0.40

WHAT TO WATCH: During our chart scans today we noticed some
explosive upward action in Netflix (NFLX).  Shares of the online
DVD-rental company have rallied to new relative highs amid news
that its subscriber base recently topped one million.  While NFLX
might be a little over-extended at current levels, we do think
its competitor Blockbuster (BBI) might offer a bullish play.
Earlier this week the stock bounced from the 50-dma at $13.87.
Shares outperformed the broader market today and added 2.6%.
These gains pushed BBI above resistance at $15.25.  A move above
today's high ($15.41) would probably send Blockbuster up to
$16.00.  That level is significant because it's the bottom of the
large December 18th gap, which was formed when the company issued
an earnings warning.  The next area of overhead resistance would
be the November lows near $18.50.  So do you go long above
today's high, or wait for a breakout above $16.00 to provide
upside confirmation?  That's up for you to decide, based on your
own risk tolerance and trading style.  P-n-f enthusiasts will
note that a trade at $15.50 would create a double-top buy signal.




---

Cardinal Health - CAH - close: 57.29 change: -0.91

WHAT TO WATCH: Over the past four months CAH has been traveling
lower in a loosely-defined regression channel.  Earlier this week
the stock rolled over from the top of this channel near $60.00.
The stock gave up 1.5% today on fairly brisk volume of 4 million
shares.  Meanwhile, the RXH.X healthcare index and HMO.X health
provider index both finished with gains.  Throw in a rolling MACD
and a fresh three-box p-n-f reversal, and CAH is looking pretty
sick.  Bearish traders can watch for a move below today's low
($56.70) to clear the way to a possible test of the relative lows
near $53.00.  This would be a reasonable downside target for
short-term traders.  Those willing to hold for 4-6 weeks might be
able to ride CAH down to $50.00, near the bottom of the
regression channel.




---

Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 33.57 change: +0.96

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of CTAS gapped lower on February 18th after
the company announced an earnings warning.  The resulting sell-
off took the stock all the way down to a low of $30.60, which was
set on Thursday morning.  Since then, the stock has seen some
rapid short-covering.  CTAS topped out at $34.22 on Friday and
traded sideways for the rest of the session.  Given the fact that
Cintas is still deeply oversold with plenty of room for recovery,
we think aggressive bulls could target a long play on a move
above today's high.  Our initial target would be the bottom of
the aforementioned gap near $37.00.




---

eBay - EBAY - close: 78.42 change: +1.01

WHAT TO WATCH: In the current market environment, buying stocks
that are breaking to new long-term highs is a risky proposition.
More often than not it seems like weakness in the broader market
makes it difficult for the bulls to sustain a breakout.  However,
EBAY has not displayed that tendency.  Looking at a daily chart,
we see that rallies to new relative highs in October, mid-
November, early-January, and mid-February all triggered a solid
round of buying.  Today's 1.3% gain pushed EBAY to fresh multi-
year highs.  Could another powerful upward leg be far behind?
Nobody can say for sure, but the rising oscillators and lack of
overhead resistance are positive signs for the bulls.  Traders
could target long entries on a move above today's high ($78.65),
keeping in mind that the bears may defend the psychologically-
important $80.00 level.  Those with a more conservative approach
could wait for a pullback to the 21-dma ($75.27) or even the 50-
dma at $73.28.




---

Linear Technology - LLTC - close: 30.67 change: +1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: The semiconductor index looks a lot healthier than
it did a few days ago, when it rolled over from the converging
50-day and 100-day moving averages.  Friday's action saw the
SOX.X outperform the NASDAQ and move above the 50-dma at 295.
The bulls will now have to contend with psychological resistance
at 300, which is the location of the 100-dma (the moving average
has risen a few points over the past couple of days).  A breakout
in the SOX.X would be very good news for shareholders of LLTC.
The stock has just broken to new multi-week highs and looks
poised to take out the January high at $31.15.  A move above that
level would put LLTC into a small gap that extends to up $31.74.
There is no substantial resistance until the $34-$35 region.
Technical bulls will note the rising action in both the MACD and
daily stochastics.




---

Procter & Gamble - PG - close: 81.86 change: -0.74

WHAT TO WATCH: That's right...PG has earned another mention on
the Watch List.  There's just no denying the bearish downtrend
that has taken the stock gradually lower from its December highs
near $88.00.  Lately PG has been underperforming the Dow Jones,
seemingly unable to rally from the $81.50-$82.00 region.  Shares
have overhead resistance in the form of a bearish p-n-f trend at
$85.00 and the descending 21-dma at $83.94.  A failed rally at
the latter level looks like it would offer a favorable bearish
entry point.  Of course, a breakdown to new multi-month lows
might accelerate the downtrend before PG has a chance to muster
another test of the 21-dma.  Thus, a move below $81.50 might also
create an action point to go short.  There is no major underlying
support until the July lows near $74.00.




---

Trimeris - TRMS - close: 40.02 change: -1.13

WHAT TO WATCH: In mid-February TRMS staged an impressive rally
off of support at $40.00.  The stock was humming along nicely
until Monday, when VaxGen (VXGN) announced that its AIDS vaccine
had proven to be only slightly more effective than a placebo in
preventing the rate of infection in clinical studies.  This
pressured shares of Trimeris, who develop antiviral fusion
inhibitors to treat HIV patients.  The subsequent decline has
taken the stock sharply lower from the $44.00 region.  TRMS is
now threatening to break below the critical support at $40.00.  A
violation of that level would present a possible bearish action
point.  Traders seeking more downside confirmation will probably
want to wait for a move under the February low of $39.45.  In
terms of downside potential, we'd be looking to capture a move to
the July lows near $36.00.  Keep an eye out for possible support
at the December lows near $38.00.




------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

ALD - This slow-moving financial stock might interest some of you
longer-term bears.  A protracted downtrend has taken ALD steadily
lower from its January highs near $24.00.  Now that psychological
support at $20.00 is showing signs of cracking, it looks like
shares could eventually reach the October lows ($18.50) or even
the July lows near $17.00.

DG - DG looks like a short trade with a good risk/reward ratio as
it rolls over from its descending 21-dma ($10.60), which has
acted as resistance for several weeks.  Bears could target a move
back to the relative low at $9.50 or the bottom of the stock's
descending regression channel at $9.00.

PRX - This drug stock exploded higher on Thursday after the
company reported earnings that beat estimates by 5 cents.  We
wouldn't be looking to chase PRX at this point, but a pullback to
the longer-term uptrend near $35.00 sure would be tempting.

NOC - War with Iraq seems to grow closer every day, but that
isn't helping defense stocks find a bid.  NOC is looking
especially weak now that it's fallen below support in the $87-$88
range.  The weekly chart no historical support until the $82.00
region, although bulls might try to defend psychological support
at $85.00.

SEPR - Shares of this biotech company have staged a nice rally
from the converging 21-dma and 50-dma.  An uptick in volume has
accompanied these gains, which formed a three-box reversal on the
point-and-figure chart.  There is not clear resistance until the
January high at $14.45.

XLNX - Another chip stock with a bullish chart.  A move above
$23.17 could lead to a retracement of the January sell-off, which
began when shares rolled over from the $26.50 area.  Be sure to
confirm sector strength with a SOX.X breakout above 300.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Last Gasp?
by Steven Price

Did we finally see the last push higher before another rollover?
It is certainly tough to tell, but we did get a snapshot of how
the markets would react to better than expected economic data and
so far that reaction looks bearish.  We got a couple of economic
reports that came in slightly higher than expected with the
release of this morning's GDP, Consumer Sentiment and Chicago PMI
reports.

The GDP report showed a 1.4% increase in final quarter of 2002.
That was a significant drop from the third quarter rate of 4%,
but still came in higher than expectations.  The consensus was
for growth of 1.1%.  For the year, the economy grew at a 2.4%
clip, while inflation remained under control.  One of the big
factors in the increase was the higher than expected growth in
consumer spending, which jumped 1.5% instead of the expected
1.0%.   While the numbers were encouraging, the rate of growth
still shows a fourth quarter slowdown and indicates a still very
slow growing economy.  Considering we are coming out of a
recession, it may be a start, but it does not exactly elicit the
feeling that everything will be just fine. Still, in the
framework of recently disappointing data, it was an encouraging
upside surprise.  Much of the impetus for the increase was a
result of aggressive monetary policy on the part of the fed,
which kept interest rates low and spurred investment in new and
existing homes; investments in residences grew 9.4%.  Given the
recent reduction in new home sales, which fell 15% in January,
some of that spending increase is unlikely to last. The durable
goods aspect of the report was actually quite disappointing,
showing an 8.5% drop. Much of that drop was led by a 40% decline
in auto sales, which finally dropped off from the third quarter's
torrid pace. A significant portion of the increase was also due
to government spending.  Government spending increased 4.9%, much
of it due to an 11.2% increase in federal spending.  That was
divided evenly between defense spending (11.4%) and non-defense
spending (10.8%). The trade gap, which reached record proportions
for December and January, took 1.4% from the reading, the largest
drag in four years. All in all the report was better than
expected, but a closer look still shows an economy in an uphill
battle.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was also better
than expected, but still reflected a downward trend. The
preliminary reading announced a couple of weeks ago was 79.2.
The consensus was for a further drop to 79.0, but it came in at
79.9. More than 40% of those polled said the economy was poor and
inflation expectations showed a slight rise, as well.  This
surprise was a welcome one after the Conference Board's Consumer
Confidence report dropped 15 points in the last reading.  The
Sentiment reading was still a decline from January's 82.4
reading, registering a nine-year low, but it was nonetheless an
upside surprise.  There had been whispers that it might come in
far below expectations, following the Confidence surprise and the
market breathed a sigh of relief when that did not happen.

The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) also came in above
expectations. It measures manufacturing activity in the region
and generally gives us a hint of what the more comprehensive ISM
report will show on March 3.  Expectations were for a reading of
52.5, and the actual number came in at 54.9.  That is still down
from the last reading at 56, which was an upside surprise, but
any reading over 50 still indicates expansion.

All of these reports coming in above expectations gave the
markets a boost to start the day, with the Dow trading up over 80
points early on.  It put the average back in the upper 7900s and
once again approached 8000.  However, it struggled to hold gains
and eventually the dominoes started falling.  The first signal
was a steep drop in treasury yields, indicating a shift into
buying bonds - generally a negative sign for stocks.  Soon after,
stocks followed suit and the morning gains were erased in a
methodical sell-off.  By mid afternoon, the Dow had ticked into
the red and the U.S. dollar had done so as well.  However, the
big, bottom out sell-off never took place and we finally found
some buyers around Dow 7850.   The bulls defended that line
strongly enough to bring the broader indices into the green by
the end of the day, but we were left with an overall bearish feel
as five and ten-year yields ended on their lows of the day and
the Dow managed only a six point gain, well off its highs and
back below 7900.

That doesn't mean we won't get another bounce on Monday,
particularly if Iraq begins to destroy its Al Samoud missiles as
planned on Saturday.  Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix
referred to this act as "a very significant piece of real
disarmament."  Iraq called the order to destroy the missiles
unjust and abusive, however it wants to avoid giving the U.S. the
excuse it is looking for to launch an invasion.   The White House
is downplaying the gesture, with spokesman Ari Fleischer saying,
"if someone takes one bullet out of the chamber of a gun while
they have six other bullets in the gun, they haven't disarmed."

For those readers following the point and figure charts, the
recent Dow rebound to 7950 tacked on another box to its current
column of "X." That box, if we don't cross 8000, completes the
latest column in a bearish flag pattern and matches a descending
trend line on that chart begun the last time it traded up to
8150.  If we roll over from here, it would be the second higher
low and a move down to 7750 would indicate a bearish breakdown of
that pattern.  A move back over 8200 would signal a big change in
sentiment.  However, even if it makes it that high, the 8300
level had provided strong closing support during the end of 2002
and could serve as resistance for bulls on the way back up.

It appears that this morning's spike higher was just another
lower high and a great opportunity for bears to enter short
positions. However, as I have said on a regular basis over the
past couple of months, anything can happen in the current geo-
political environment.  Blix is scheduled to submit a progress
report to the U.N. on Saturday and if that report recommends
ongoing inspections and suggests progress is being made, we may
yet get another rally.  It is difficult to predict too far into
the future, but if today's reaction to "good news" was any
indication, rallies are still shorting opportunities.  however,
if the specter of war is ever removed, traders may want to step
out of the way and let the mother of all shorting opportunities
run its course.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  7891

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7923
 50-dma: 8251
200-dma: 8601

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  841

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  839
 50-dma:  872
200-dma:  910

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1010

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  999
 50-dma: 1011
200-dma: 1010
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X):  The chip stocks got a boost
this morning from Lehman analyst Dan Niles, who raised his first
quarter estimates for Intel.  Niles raised his revenue target
from $6.5-$7.0 billion to $6.7-$7.0 billion, citing overseas
strength, market share gains and lower than expected gross margin
decline. He also raised earnings estimates for the first quarter
and full year 2003 and 2004.  Intel jumped 3.3% and carried the
SOX along with it.  The SOX jumped 8 points to 297.63, a new
relative high.  It is now flirting with an important level of
resistance at 300. It also spurred the tech sector, leading to an
advance in the Nasdaq Composite of 13.58.  If the SOX can manage
to break back over 300, bears that saw the initial broad market
equity rally fail today should beware of further possible
strength.

52-week High: 657
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 297

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 278
 50-dma: 294
200-dma: 329
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX traded all the way down to 33.39 intraday, which was new
relative intraday low.  IT broke the 35% support line that held
it through much of Thursday's action and ended the day just over
34%.  That 34% level has been tested on two prior occasions since
the mid-January swoon began in the broader markets and a close
below 34 could signal a further rally in equities.  The next
significant support level here is 26%, which would give the
equities plenty of room to rally and might correlate to a Dow in
the upper 8000s.  That may be getting ahead of ourselves, since
there is an awful lot of overhead resistance for equities to
fight through, but it is something to watch out for if the VIX
continues to sink.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 34.15 -1.03
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 45.66 -0.50
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.59        532,838       312,768
Equity Only    0.50        413,453       208,120
OEX            1.11         16,542        18,419
QQQ            0.65         39,742        25,867
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          39.6    - 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    34.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   13.3    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       33.8    - 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       28.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.16
10-Day Arms Index  1.08
21-Day Arms Index  1.29
55-Day Arms Index  1.30


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1631          1174
NASDAQ     1583          1545

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        81               63
NASDAQ      63               70

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,552
NASDAQ     1,303
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/25/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials made few changes to either side of the equation,
resulting in a net change of 200 short contracts.  Small traders
added 2300 contracts to the long side.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/04/03      414,543   465,678   (51,135)   (5.8%)
02/11/03      412,333   472,156   (59,823)   (6.8%)
02/18/03      423,871   481,871   (58,000)   (6.4%)
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03      151,174    93,439    57,735     23.5%
02/11/03      161,126    95,618    65,508     25.5%
02/18/03      155,475    91,102    64,373     26.1%
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials added slightly to the long side and added 1,200 short
contracts.  Small traders left the long side alone and reduced
 shorts by 2,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03       40,934     50,992   (10,058) (10.9%)
02/11/03       39,412     53,818   (14,406) (15.5%)
02/18/03       38,486     50,501   (12,015) (13.5%)
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03       25,573     8,648    16,925    49.5%
02/11/03       29,667     8,915    20,752    53.8%
02/18/03       25,482     9,425    16,057    46.0%
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased the long side by 1,000 contracts and left
shorts relatively unchanged.  Small Traders reduced the long side
by 700 contracts and left the short side alone.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03       17,596    11,232    6,364      22.1%
02/11/03       19,826    11,800    8,026      25.4%
02/18/03       18,812    11,939    6,873      22.4%
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/04/03        4,583     9,424    (4,841)   (34.6%)
02/11/03        5,390     9,300    (3,910)   (26.6%)
02/18/03        5,561     8,973    (3,412)   (23.5%)
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-28-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     CMVT
  Bullish Play Updates:  IBM, SLAB
  Bearish Play Updates:  INFY

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  DHR, TOO
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     GLW
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMGN, TECD
  Bearish Play Updates:  AW, CTAC, IDPH



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Comverse Technology - CMVT - cls: 10.20 chg: +0.49 stop: 9.39

Company Description:
Comverse, a unit of Comverse Technology, Inc., is the world's
leading provider of software and systems enabling network-based
multimedia enhanced communications services. More than 400
wireless and wireline telecommunications network operators, in
more than 100 countries, have selected Comverse's enhanced
services systems and software, which enable the provision of
revenue-generating value-added services. These include call
answering with one-touch call return, short messaging services,
IP-based unified messaging (voice, fax, and email in a single
mailbox), 2.5G/3G multimedia messaging (MMS), instant
communications, wireless information and entertainment services,
voice-controlled dialing, messaging and browsing, prepaid
wireless services, and additional personal communication
services. Other Comverse Technology business units include:
Verint Systems, a leading provider of analytic solutions for
communications interception, digital video security and
surveillance, and enterprise business intelligence; and Ulticom,
a leading provider of service enabling network software for
wireless, wireline, and Internet communications. Comverse
Technology is an S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 Index company
(source: company press release)

Why we like it:
The broader markets have been range bound for weeks.  Granted,
they seem to have a bearish tint to them, if we're going to be
stuck in a range bound market, let's play something that's
moving, even if it's range bound too.  This is definitely a
trader's play as the overall fundamental for tech companies
really hasn't improved much.  It is coincidental that CMVT came
out with a bunch of news about new products and contract about
the time shares turned around mid-February at the bottom of its
channel (see chart below).  We really like CMVT now that it has
build support (again) at its 200-dma and broken out above the $10
psychological level and its 50-dma.  Bears will be prone to cover
shorts and bulls could be willing to ride the stock up to its
next resistance level near $12.00.

Volume was pretty strong on the breakout today with 4.6 million
shares compared to the three-month average of just 2.18 shares a
day.  A pull back to $10.00 looks very attractive but shares
already tried to pull back Friday afternoon.  We're going to
start the play with a short-term upside target of $11.50 and a
stop loss at $9.39.  More conservative traders can attempt to
limit their risk with a stop under $9.75.

Annotated chart of CMVT:


Picked on February 28th at $10.20
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date            11/26/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intl Business Mach. - IBM - cls: 77.95 chg: +0.67 stop: *text*

You're probably heard it said before.  Eighty percent of a
stock's movement is market related.  For some stocks this is
truer than others.  While it is to be expected from a Dow
Industrials component, check out a chart of IBM versus the
Industrials.  I'm looking at a 30-minute interval chart from
January 14th-through today.  They are eerily familiar.
Meanwhile, the Premier Investor Newsletter remains untriggered in
our bullish play for IBM.  Until the stock can trade at or above
$80.06, we'll remain on the sidelines.  Much more aggressive
traders might consider picking a bottom on IBM as it approaches
the $76 support level and its 200-dma.  Be aware that picking a
bottom can be hazardous for your financial health if not done
with extreme care.  Honestly, if IBM sinks any lower (under $76)
we'll have to consider dropping this play - maybe even turning
bearish as the stock would probably then aim for the $70 mark.
In the news, IBM reported signing a six-year technology deal with
French company Axa.  The deal is worth about $1 billion.
Unfortunately, there was not much reaction in IBM's stock price
for just adding a billion dollars in revenue.  But then again
that's only $41 million a quarter over the next 24 quarters.

Picked on February Xth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date           01/16/03 (confirmed)




---

Silicon Labs - SLAB - close: 27.12 change: +0.95 stop: 23.99

Friday's session displayed the kind of move we've been waiting to
see by SLAB.  Our chip stock pick out performed the sector, which
did pretty well for itself, especially on a Friday with plenty of
event risk in our future.  What helped propel the $SOX up over 2%
and ever so much closer to the 300 resistance level (and what the
bulls hope will be the imminent breakout) was word from the
infamous chip analyst, Dan Niles.  Dan covers Intel, the largest
chip maker in the world.  Where Intel goes usually leads the chip
sector.  Fortunately for the bulls, Dan had somewhat positive
things to say about INTC.  Dan believes that INTC will actually
raise their Q1 revenue guidance based on higher average selling
prices (ASP) and market share gains.  However, he actually gave
himself a backdoor with possible concerns over Intel's Q2 due to
potential European sluggishness and Asian holidays affecting
demand in Japan and China.  Thanks for talking out both sides of
your mouth, Dan!  Bulls took what they could get and ran with it,
right into a brick wall with the 300 level of resistance for the
SOX.  SLAB too the lead and added 3.6% and managing a close over
$27.  The stock looks strong and we're still gunning for a
continued channel riding higher to the $29-30 level.  Watch that
SOX for a breakout or failed rally.  Hopefully, SLAB might be
able to run a bit with the index should the SOX fail.

Picked on February 20th at $25.74
Results since picked:       +1.35
Earnings Date            01/22/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Infosys Technologies - INFY - cls: 61.80 chg: +1.80 stop: *text*

Sometimes you have to hand it to the politicians.  If they aren't
making headlines in our country they're making headlines in
theirs.  This time we're referring to India's Finance Minister
unveiling a new budget today (Friday).  The budget was geared to
be very "voter friendly" including tax breaks for parents, tax
exemptions for senior citizens, more plans on healthcare, etc.
You can certainly tell that 2004 is going to be an election year
for Indians.  One report called this budget a "dress rehearsal"
for next year.  We suspect that this budget news was the catalyst
for INFY's gap up this morning when the U.S. markets opened.  The
stock opened at 61.51 and traded up to its 200-dma before pulling
back and treading water sideways.  As potential bears in the
stock we're encouraged that resistance at the 200-dma held.  Very
aggressive traders could try and target entries here but we're
going to wait for INFY to trade at or below our entry point of
$59.49 before hypothetically going short this security.  Keep in
mind that INFY will be very sensitive to any move in the dollar,
which today did a lot of nothing.  We neglected to note in
yesterday's comments that INFY is doing what it can to hedge its
exposure to the currency changes between the dollar and the
Indian rupee but it remains a risk for the company.

Picked on February xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            04/11/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Danaher Corp - DHR - close: 65.02 change: +0.62 stop: 61.98 *new*

Today's choppy and directionless trading in the Dow Jones could
not prevent DHR from plowing ahead to a new relative high.  The
stock gapped higher at the opening bell and worked its way up to
$65.50 within the first 90 minutes of trading.  Shares spent the
remainder of the session trading safely in positive territory,
with $65.00 level seeming to act as a price magnet.  Thus far
we're pretty pleased with how DHR has performed.  As expected,
the stock is retracing its steep January sell-off and moving
towards the multi-month highs near $68.00.  As we mentioned in
the original write-up for this play, short-term traders might
want to use that level as an upside profit-target.  We're looking
for an eventual move to the $70.00 region.  In terms of new
entries, traders can watch for either a breakout above $65.50 or
a pullback to $64.50.  Our stop-loss has been raised to $61.98.
A more conservative strategy would entail placing a stop slightly
below the rising 50-dma at $63.76.

Picked on February 26th at $64.36
Results since picked:       +0.66
Earnings Date            01/30/02 (confirmed)




---

TOO Inc - TOO - close: 15.25 change: -0.31 stop: 13.99

Shares of TOO were met with some selling on Friday morning after
they failed to move above Thursday's high.  The stock stabilized
in the $15.15-$15.30 region and finished the session with a loss
of roughly 2%.  With the retail index trading flat and no major
sector news, it looks like today's pullback was simply the result
of bulls taking profits ahead of the weekend.  The selling was
backed by only 311,000 shares - the lowest reading in over two
weeks.  That doesn't indicate much conviction on the part of the
bears.  Market willing, we think TOO will be able to recover
today's losses and move back towards the relative highs.  Traders
looking for upside confirmation will want to wait for TOO to move
above yesterday's high ($15.76) or whole-number resistance at
$16.00.  Note that our entry price has adjusted to $15.66 to
reflect this morning's 10-cent gap.

Picked on February 27th at $15.66
Gain since picked:          -0.41
Earnings Date            02/19/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 38.76 change: +0.22 stop: 40.06 *new*

Has APD put in a short-term bottom?  Today's intraday move above
short-term resistance at $39.00 indicates that might be the case.
Granted, it's hard to make much out of the session's 22-cent
gain.  The stock actually closed well off its highs and traded in
a small range during the afternoon.  But with the daily
stochastics (5,3,3) moving higher and the MACD looking like it
could soon produce a bullish crossover, we think the prudent
strategy at this point is to lower our upside exposure.  This
play's stop-loss is now located at $40.06, slightly above the 21-
dma ($39.85) and psychological resistance at $40.00.  Going
forward, what we'd like to see is a violation of the recent
pattern of higher lows and higher highs.  A close below $38.50
would help to confirm that that trend has been broken.  The PI
Newsletter is not recommending new entries at this time.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      +1.08
Earnings Date:          01/22/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 4.92 change: +0.12 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Established in 1851, Corning Incorporated creates leading-edge
technologies that offer growth opportunities in markets that fuel
the world's economy. Corning manufactures optical fiber, cable
and photonic products in its Telecommunications segment.
Corning's Technologies segment manufactures high-performance
display glass, and products for the environmental, life sciences,
and semiconductor markets. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
There is scant evidence to indicate that the fiber optic business
is seeing an upturn in demand.  Nonetheless, investors seem to
developing an increasingly optimistic view of Corning's bottom line.
A brutal downturn in the telecom industry sent GLW
tumbling from its late-2000 highs of $113 to a multi-year low of
$1.10 in early-October.  Shareholders who weathered the pain of
this extreme P/E compression have seen their stock march steadily
higher over the past five months.  Wall Street may be encouraged
by the fact that Corning's extensive cost-cutting measures have
allowed the company to move back towards profitability.  One look
at their capex figures (an expected $350-$450 million in 2003
versus $1.7 billion in 2001) shows just how much spending has
been reduced.  Corning reported in February that it anticipates
positive earnings growth by the third quarter.

Technically, what we like about GLW is the fact that shares have
recently rebounded from the long-term trend of higher lows.  That
trend is bolstered by the 21-dma at $4.75.  With the daily
stochastics (5,3,3) moving higher and the point-and-figure chart
showing a double-top buy signal, the pullback appears to have
created a buying opportunity.  We will activate this play if GLW
moves above resistance at $5.00.  Our initial profit-target will
be at $5.99.  Possible overhead resistance looms at the February
highs near $5.60.  If the play is triggered we'll use a stop at
$4.53, one cent under the relative low.  This would create a
risk/reward ratio of roughly 1:2.  Traders with a longer-term
approach might want to use a stop just below the rising 50-dma
($4.25) and aim for a higher upside target.  At the current rate
of ascent, it looks like GLW could reach the $7.00 region by
June.  Disclosure: At least one PremierInvestor.net employee
currently owns Leap options on this security.

Picked on March xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:   +0.00
Earnings Date        04/24/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 54.64 change: +0.58 stop: 51.54

Talk about dependability!  Every time AMGN approaches its
ascending trendline, the bulls defend that support line with a
vengeance and the resulting bounce invariably takes the stock up
to test its recent highs.  Last week was no exception, with an
early dip to support on Tuesday that met with vigorous buying
after the company reaffirmed its revenue growth (30-32%) and EPS
growth (25-27%) forecast through 2005 at its investor's
conference.  Trading a low of the day just above $52.00, that
news was the catalyst to drive the stock steadily higher
throughout the week, ending with a new 10-month closing high of
$54.64 on Friday.  The trend remains very much intact and barring
some unforeseen event over the weekend, AMGN looks ready to break
through the $55 level next week.  The ascending trendline that
began last September has now risen to $52.50 and should continue
to support the stock on successive pullbacks.  While aggressive
traders may feel compelled to chase the stock higher on a
breakout over $55, their enthusiasm should be tempered by the
strong resistance that is looming just overhead near $56 and
continuing up through the $60 level.  Additionally, AMGN has not
shown a recent pattern of being able to sustain a breakout,
instead pulling back after each higher high to consolidate and
confirm higher support.  So the best approach for entering the
play remains to take advantage of rebounds from the ascending
support line.  This weekend, we're leaving our stop in place at
$51.54, but will consider raising it once AMGN is able to close
over the $55 level.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +2.13
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)




---

Tech Data - TECD - close: 22.59 change: +0.51 stop: 20.94 *new*

Earlier this week, TECD pulled back to consolidate some of its
rapid gains from the relative low of $19.07.  Buyers moved in at
the Tuesday lows near $21.00 and pushed the stock up to short-
term resistance at $22.00.  Yesterday's late-session breakout
above that level had us looking for a test of the short-term high
at $22.33, and the bulls did not disappoint.  TECD zoomed higher
on Friday morning before topping out at a new relative high of
$22.78.  Shares spent the second half of the session trading in a
tight range near $22.50.  Tech Data finished with a gain of 2.3%,
easily outpacing the NASDAQ.  Pulling back to the daily chart to
get a look at the bigger picture, we see that TECD has broken
above its 21-dma ($22.44) as it continues to fill in the February
7th gap.  With both the MACD and daily stochastics (5,3,3)
looking bullish, the stock looks poised to continue its uptrend
and move closer to our profit-target at $23.99.  Traders looking
for new entries can watch for a pullback and successful test of
the $22.00 level, which should now provide support.  Our stop
loss for this play is now located one cent under Tuesday's low at
$20.94.

Picked on February 18th at $21.75
Results since picked:       +0.84
Earnings Date            03/17/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Allied Waste - AW - close: 8.25 change: +0.21 stop: 9.03

AW gapped higher on Friday morning and quickly moved to a session
high of $8.34.  Shares then proceeded to fill in a portion of
that upward gap, trading in the $8.15-$8.25 range for the rest of
the day.  Bears will be encouraged that $8.25 continued to
provide resistance during the afternoon.  This level also kept a
lid on AW earlier in the week.  It's interesting to see that
rising action in the MACD and daily stochastic oscillators hasn't
been accompanied by a more powerful bounce from the $8.00 region.
Volume also continues to be on the light side, with today's gains
backed by 474,000 shares.  By way of comparison, volume during
the recent sell-off from the $10.00 level came on an average
daily reading of roughly 1,000,000 shares.  The lack of
confirmation behind AW's reversal suggests that the stock could
soon resume its downtrend.  Aggressive traders looking to open to
short positions may want to wait for a move under $8.00 to
provide confirmation that the near-term uptrend has been broken.
Our stop for this play remains at $9.03, above the 200-dma.
Those seeking to eliminate any upside risk could use a break-even
stop at $8.54.

Picked on February 20th at $8.54
Results since picked:      +0.29
Earnings Date           02/13/03 (confirmed)




---

1-800 Contacts - CTAC - cls: 17.79 chg: -0.13 stop: 20.01

CTAC is really struggling with that 100-dma!  Last night we
discussed how the moving average, which initially offered support
during the recent sell-off, had turned into resistance.  This
continued to be the case on Friday.  The bulls may have gotten
their hopes up when CTAC moved above the 100-dma ($18.09) and
moved to an intraday high of $18.22.  This breakout, however,
proved to have absolutely no staying power.  CTAC quickly moved
back to the $18.00 region, which provided resistance during the
second half of the session.  Shares faded the Dow during the
final half-hour of trading before finishing with a small loss -
not a good way to close out the week.  Going forward, we'll be
looking for CTAC to break its three-day trend of higher highs and
remain under the 100-dma.  A rollover from current levels,
accompanied by a pickup in volume, would offer a potential entry
point.  Traders attempting to protect a 3.0% gain could use a
stop just above today's high.  Our stop remains at $20.01.

Picked on February 20th at $18.80
Results since picked:       +0.88
Earnings Date            02/18/03 (confirmed)




---

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - cls: 28.75 chg: -0.41 stop: 31.06 *new*

A daily chart for IDPH shows a lot of uncertainty on the part of
investors.  Over the past seven sessions the stock has alternated
between red and green candles.  The last four days have been
especially directionless, with IDPH holding above the relative
low ($28.26) while consistently finding resistance at the multi-
week downtrend.  Something's gotta give eventually, but with the
broader market also trending sideways it would not be surprising
to see hold in its current range.  Bears can be encouraged by the
fact that IDPH underperformed both the NASDAQ and biotech index
on Friday.  If the BTK.X drops from the top of its descending
regression channel next week, IDPH would have a tough time
holding above short-term support at $28.50, which has been the
daily low over the past three days.  A violation of that level
would probably result in a test of the relative lows.  Traders
looking for new short positions can continue to watch for a
breakdown below $28.26 to offer a potential action point.  Our
stop has been inched down to $31.06, slightly above last week's
high.

Picked on February 13th at $29.99
Results since picked:       +1.24
Earnings Date            01/30/03 (confirmed)







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=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 02-28-2003
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of March 3rd
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==========================================
Market Watch for the week of March 3rd
==========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

CDX    Catellus Devel Corp   Mon, Mar 03  Before the Bell     0.40
CPG    Chelsea Property Grp  Mon, Mar 03  After the Bell      0.82
HRC    Healthsouth           Mon, Mar 03  -----N/A-----       0.11
HBC    HSBC Holdings plc     Mon, Mar 03  Before the Bell      N/A
PSO    Pearson plc           Mon, Mar 03  -----N/A-----        N/A
KPN    Royal Kpn N.V.        Mon, Mar 03  -----N/A-----        N/A


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AZO    AutoZone Inc.         Tue, Mar 04  Before the Bell     0.78
BNS    Bank of Nova Scotia   Tue, Mar 04  -----N/A-----        N/A
BVF    Biovail Corporation   Tue, Mar 04  Before the Bell     0.56
CHS    Chico's FAS           Tue, Mar 04  Before the Bell     0.16
CZN    Citizens Comm         Tue, Mar 04  Before the Bell     0.01
CRHCY  CRH PLC               Tue, Mar 04  -----N/A-----        N/A
DISH   EchoStar Comm Corp.   Tue, Mar 04  -----N/A-----      -1.03
HSIC   Henry Schein          Tue, Mar 04  Before the Bell     0.65
JWa    John Wiley & Sons     Tue, Mar 04  -----N/A-----       0.40
RA     Reckson Ass Realty Co Tue, Mar 04  After the Bell      0.59


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

COST   Costco Wholesale Corp Wed, Mar 05  Before the Bell     0.43
FTE    France Telecom        Wed, Mar 05  -----N/A-----        N/A
GLH    Gallaher Group PLC    Wed, Mar 05  -----N/A-----       1.62
GENZ   Genzyme               Wed, Mar 05  -----N/A-----       0.35
MIK    Michaels Stores       Wed, Mar 05  -----N/A-----       1.01
NMGa   Neiman Marcus Group   Wed, Mar 05  After the Bell      0.67
PETM   PetsMart              Wed, Mar 05  Before the Bell     0.27
AHO    Royal Ahold N.V.      Wed, Mar 05  Before the Bell      N/A
SKS    Saks Incorporated     Wed, Mar 05  Before the Bell     0.50
SPLS   Staples, Inc.         Wed, Mar 05  Before the Bell     0.33
TLM    Talisman Energy       Wed, Mar 05  After the Bell      1.00
TOY    Toys R Us             Wed, Mar 05  Before the Bell     1.27


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AEG    AEGON N.V.            Thu, Mar 06  -----N/A-----       0.27
MBG    Mandalay Resort Group Thu, Mar 06  -----N/A-----       0.13
MDZ    MDS Inc.              Thu, Mar 06  Before the Bell      N/A
NSM    National Semicon      Thu, Mar 06  During the Market  -0.03
NXL    Nw Pln Excl Rlty Trst Thu, Mar 06  -----N/A-----       0.47
PT     Portugal Telecom SGPS Thu, Mar 06  -----N/A-----        N/A
REXMY  REXAM PLC             Thu, Mar 06  -----N/A-----       1.52
SZE    Suez SA               Thu, Mar 06  -----N/A-----        N/A


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

IPR    International Power   Fri, Mar 07  Before the Bell      N/A


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

EXAC    Exactech                  2:1      Mar. 03rd   Mar. 04th
EXPE    Expedia                   2:1      Mar. 10th   Mar. 11th
ROL     Rollins, Inc              3:2      Mar. 10th   Mar. 11th
FFLC    FFLC Bancorp, Inc.        3:2      Mar. 14th   Mar. 17th
LNBB    LNB Bancorp, Inc.         3:2      Mar. 14th   Mar. 17th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Monday begins the last four weeks of the first quarter for 2003.
Odds are consumers aren't going to be picking up their spending
habits any time soon but Wall Street will be looking at the
Auto Sales #s, Personal Income & Spending, Construction spending
and the ISM (services) index on Monday/Tuesday.

==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 03/03/02
----------------
Auto Sales (NA)         Feb  Forecast:   5.8M  Previous:     5.9M
Truck Sales (NA)        Feb  Forecast:   7.0M  Previous:     6.9M
Personal Income (BB)    Jan  Forecast:   0.4%  Previous:     0.4%
Personal Spending (BB)  Jan  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.9%
ISM Index (DM)          Feb  Forecast:   52.0  Previous:     53.9
Construction Spnding(DM)Jan  Forecast:   0.4%  Previous:     1.2%


Tuesday, 03/04/02
-----------------
None


Wednesday, 03/05/02
-------------------
ISM Services (DM)       Feb  Forecast:   53.0  Previous:     54.5
Fed's Beige Book  (DM)


Thursday, 03/06/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   03/01  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     417K
Productivity-Rev. (BB)   Q4  Forecast:   0.1%  Previous:    -0.2%
Factory Orders (DM)     Jan  Forecast:   0.4%  Previous:     0.4%


Friday, 03/07/02
----------------
Nonfarm payrolls (BB)   Feb  Forecast:    20K  Previous:     143K
Unemployment Rate (BB)  Feb  Forecast:   5.8%  Previous:     5.7%
Hourly Earnings (BB)    Feb  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.0%
Average Workweek (BB)   Feb  Forecast:   34.2  Previous:     34.2
Consumer Credit (DM)    Jan  Forecast: -$1.5B  Previous:   -$4.0B


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

HSIC    Henry Schein               40.00     +0.77
HLYW    Hollywood Entertainment    14.06     +0.72
MME     Mid-Atlantic Medical       35.75     +0.85
JNY     Jones Apparel Group        28.36     +0.66
INTL    Inter-Tel Inc              18.26     +1.29
LAB     Labranche & Co             20.32     +0.60

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

IDTI    Integrated Device Tech.     8.70     +1.15
SMTC    Semtech Corp               14.68     +1.30

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

HAR     Harman Intl.                63.53     +1.83
PRX     Pharmaceutical Resources    37.45     +1.30
MBI     MBIA Inc                    38.13     +1.63
COH     Coach Inc                   35.73     +1.24
MRVL    Marvell Tech.               20.60     +1.10

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TRMS    Trimeris Inc               40.02     -1.13
MWRK    Mothers Work               28.87     -1.81
ACDO    Accredo Health             23.75     -1.17
KB      Kookmin Bank               30.52     -1.38

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CAH     Cardinal Health            57.29     -0.91




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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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