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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/06/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-06-2003
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Tug Of War
Play-of-the-Day:  Snowed Under
Market Sentiment: Waiting & Patience


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      03-06-2003           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     7674.27 -101.30  7777.42  7659.09 1.53 bln 1201/2006
NASDAQ   1302.92 - 11.50  1312.61  1299.81 1.26 bln 1267/1948
S&P 100   416.49 -  3.81   420.79   415.38   Totals 2468/3954
S&P 500   822.10 -  7.75   829.85   819.85
W5000    7799.65 - 65.60  7865.25  7779.27
RUS 2000  353.84 -  2.70   356.54   353.29
DJ TRANS 2017.07 - 19.90  2036.46  2014.91
VIX        36.34 +  2.11    36.88    35.07
VXN        45.65 +  1.31    45.91    45.01
Total Volume 2,965B
Total UpVol    898B
Total DnVol  1,966M
52wk Highs  165
52wk Lows   356
TRIN       1.17
PUT/CALL   0.93
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Tug of War

Investors torn over the potential war scenarios battled
over a very limited point range this afternoon. The lack
of significant movement in the last hour showed that buyers
and sellers had reached an impasse with each controlling
their respective areas but unable to penetrate the small
demilitarized zone between them.

Dow Charts - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


I have been preaching for weeks about the jobless claims
and they just keep getting worse. Claims came in at 430,000
and grossly over the 405,000 estimate. This was the third
week over 400,000 and it brought the four week moving average
to 409,000 and in very critical territory. Continuing claims
also rose to 3.52 million and their highest level since
November. Layoffs remain at a recessionary level and new
hiring has failed to increase. This is painting a bleak
picture for the economy going forward and sets up a chance
for a substantial miss in the Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow.

On the flip side the Productivity Report showed a strong
gain in productivity in the 4Q with the number revised
upward to +0.8%. Obviously higher productivity means
fewer workers needed to achieve the same output. Higher
productivity is also a result of cutting employees which
leaves fewer workers to accomplish the same tasks. This
is not a good sign for those workers still unemployed
but a minor positive for corporate America.

Factory Orders were also up +2.1% compared to estimates
of +1.5%. This is a confusing number as it is contrary to
most other economic reports and showed a broad increase
across all areas. Non-defense investment rose +1.2% which
is a good indication of corporate spending. The unfilled
orders backlog continues to shrink which means future
headline numbers are not likely to continue to grow.

Chain Store same store sales were announced and other than
standouts WMT, PSUN and GPS the results were ugly. GPS was
up +8% and PSUN +14.8% with WMT increasing +2.6%. KSS dropped
-4.6%, Sears -9.4% after closing 130 stores during the
President's Day blizzard. Pier One fell -5.8%, FD -6.8%,
JCP -2.1%, MAY -7.5%. Overall department same store sales
fell -5.5%. Weather was blamed in most cases but shoppers
have been notably absent since the orange alert was issued.

Other notable events was a drop in TSN, Tyson Foods, to a
13 year low on falling consumer sales causing a glut in
meat products. Their warning of no expected profits for
the current quarter was significantly below the 14 cents
expected. IPG, an advertising holding company, missed
estimates by a mile with a nickel profit compared to
estimates of 18 cents. They lowered their outlook for
the year due to falling ad sales and losses of several
major accounts.

Today was not a day for economic news to move the markets.
The Jobless claims and overseas results had the market
heading south at a high rate of speed at the open but the
rumor mongers jumped in to stop the descent cold. First
there was a rumor that North Korea had agreed to let UN
inspectors back into their nuclear facilities. That was
later denied and attributed to comments from China that
"IF" the US would hold face-to-face talks then NK might
let inspectors back in. Secondly there was a rumor at
10:AM and started to coincide with the release of the
Factory Orders report that Osama had been captured from
info received from Khalid Mohammed. This rumor sent the
Dow back to positive territory before being denied by the
US. It was also announced that Bush had called an unscheduled
press conference at 8:PM and the Osama rumor began again.
Surely Bush was going to announce his capture to the world.
The idea that anybody could keep that type of info secret
for 12 hours is amazing. It would be the biggest news
event since 9/11 and the capture of the most wanted
fugitive in the world would be filling the airwaves.

Once the White House denied Bush would announce his
capture the rumors turned to what he might be going to
say. War, he is going to declare war! Wrong again, but
the rumors were so persuasive the White House had to
issue an update saying that Bush would be saying nothing
new but would touch on terrorism, Khalid Mohammed, Iraq
and then take questions. This format calmed trader's
nerves somewhat since it is not the format for a major
news release.

There was also the persistent rumor that Iraq was
destroying their own oil fields. This was denied several
times by different branches of the government but was
still persisting even after the close.

The effect of all these rumors was paralysis in the
markets. The Dow sank to it's lows for the month at 7659
and only +30 points above its February lows. It hung there
from 12:30 through the close and stayed in a very narrow
range. The Nasdaq positively refused to break 1300 although
it tried several times. With both indexes literally on
the edge of the cliff both held their ground. Bears could
not over power bargain hunting buyers who would not chase
prices but provided plenty of buying power at that last
ditch support. It was a stalemate and if there was a
winner I would give it to the bulls for not caving in to
pressure. Volume was light again as everybody was holding
their cash until the events of tonight and tomorrow played
out.

The first event was a mid-quarter update by Intel. Intel
had been expected to affirm or even raise guidance slightly
after Dan Niles went public with his thoughts last week.
In reality Intel lowered guidance although it was cleverly
worded. They had previously guided to $6.5-$7B in revenue.
They lowered that range to $6.6-$6.8B. Not a big move but
psychological more than material. The big drop came in the
estimated profit margin. It fell from 52% to "less than 50%"
give or take a point or two. This 2-3% drop equates to a
very large number in profits. Something in the $200 million
range. For Intel this is not a big number but it showed
that things were not really improving in the tech sector
despite what people thought. INTC traded down to $16 in
after hours.

All eyes are focused on the press conference at 8:PM tonight.
It is commonly thought that any hope of a multinational
attack has faded completely and the US is prepared to go
it alone and soon. The speech will probably try to sell
the case for attacking Iraq once again but more importantly
they expect Bush to violently attack the UN and nations
that have elected to go against the US position. He will
likely repeat the UN is no longer relevant when two bit
dictators can thumb their nose at them and continue to
defy their authority. He is not going to win any friends
but he will probably put them on notice that business as
usual has ceased. Trade deals, troop basing, loans, aid,
etc are going to dry up quickly for anybody that votes
against the US. Several analysts have predicted a new
"cold war" among allies is beginning. Rumsfield has
already floated the trial balloon about removing our
troops from Germany. Surely it is just a coincidence,
right? (grin)

Tomorrow Hans Blix delivers another update on Iraq to
the UN and he is expected to say cooperation has increased
but only grudgingly. Powell is going to reiterate that
it is a cat and mouse game with Saddam very experienced
at hiding the cheese and years of inspections would not
accomplish anything. Next week the resolution issue is
expected to come to a vote and there are between 6-8
versions being floated. Most analysts feel this is just
a waste of time with only four countries on our side.
Most feel the 72-hour warning will be given on Monday
and possibly a very short deadline for Saddam to leave
or comply of as little as 72 hours after that. The current
target date for war is March 17th. This has been calculated
by numerous planners and analysts based on the logistics
of getting all the troops and equipment to the gulf.
There is sufficient equipment in place already to win
the war but overwhelming force tends to win overwhelmingly.
Another 60-75,000 troops currently in route would fill
that bill.

Economically we have the Nonfarm payrolls at 8:30AM and
the estimate is for an increase of +6,000 jobs. I suspect
the number could be significantly lower. All bets are off
for market direction on Friday due to the Bush press
conference, the Nonfarm payrolls and the Blix report.
The best advice would be to take the day off and play
golf unless you have a very accurate crystal ball.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


===============
Play-of-the-Day   (New BEARISH Active Trader/non-tech play)
===============

Sears Roebuck - S - close: 19.30 change: -0.70 stop: 21.11

Company Description:
Sears, Roebuck and Co. is a broadline retailer with significant
service and credit businesses. In 2002, the company's annual revenue
was $41 billion. The company offers its wide range of apparel, home
and automotive products and services to families in the U.S. through
Sears stores nationwide, including approximately 870 full-line
stores. Sears also offers a variety of merchandise and services
through its Web sites, sears.com and landsend.com, and a variety of
specialty catalogs. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Nary a day goes by that we aren't confronted with more evidence
of fundamental weakness in the retail sector.  The group is
already reeling from a tepid Holiday season and a nation full of
consumers who are more concerned with the looming war in Iraq
than missing the latest big sale at the mall.  Making a bad
situation even worse, the East Coast was recently hammered with a
severe winter storm that left many potential customers
involuntarily cocooned in their homes.  This had a decidedly
negative effect on several retailers, including Sears.  The
company reported today that its same-store sales for February
fell by 9.4%.  Analysts were expecting a decline of only 7.6%.
This news follows last Friday's credit rating reduction from
Standard & Poor's, who cut Sears from "A" status to "BBB+."

Today's news pushed S to new multi-year lows on the strongest
volume since January 16th.  This 3.5% decline was more than
enough to push the stock below critical support at $20.00.
Pulling up a yearly chart, we see that shares haven't traded this
low since Ronald Reagan's first term.  Now that's what we call a
historical breakdown!  In light of the technical and fundamental
weakness, we feel that S could be headed for the next level of
psychological support at $15.00.  We'll initially target a move
to that region.  Shorter-term traders might want to aim for
$16.00 or $17.00.  We know, that's a bit ambiguous...But with
shares trading at multi-DECADE lows, it's very tough to gauge
downside potential.  Suffice it to say we think the recent
downtrend will continue.  This hypothetical trade is active at
current levels with a stop at $21.11.  Very conservative traders
might want to use a stop slightly above today's high of $20.20.
Finally, on a purely anecdotal note: There's a Sears store
adjacent to the Premier Investor offices here in Denver.  With
the exception of the Holiday season, the surrounding parking lot
has been largely unfilled in recent months.  While that's not
information that one could base an investment decision on, it's
nonetheless interesting to see tangible evidence of the sales
decline that has weighed so heavily on Sears stock.

Annotated daily chart - S:



Picked on March 6th at 19.30
Results since picked   +0.00
Earnings Date       04/17/03 (unconfirmed)

Chart =



================
Market Sentiment
================

Waiting & Patience
OI Staff

Thursday was more a day of rumors than trading.  The major indices
ended the day in the red and not for lack of any negative rumors
floating up and down Wall Street today.  Now that the President has
held his prime time news conference the last few bits and pieces of the
stage are falling into place.  The U.S. will have a vote next week and
the world will see who is willing to take a stand against Saddam and
his own regime of terror and who will not.

How does this apply to the markets?  As you can see in today's trading,
the markets seemed to be placed on hold most of the afternoon as we
waited to hear from Bush.  Intel's mid-quarter update was an idle news
story to pass the time while we waited from word out of the White
House.  Not that it mattered...Intel's report that is.  The
semiconductor giant merely narrowed its revenue guidance from $6.5 to
7.0 billion to $6.6 to $6.8 billion.  Business may not be bad but it's
not good either.  Intel was trading down in after hours markets once
their report was out.  Whether this is enough to pull the $SOX, which
has been consolidation sideways, through the 280 support level is
another matter.  Should the chips cave in, the $NDX is sure to head to
its mid-month lows and the Nasdaq Composite will likely surrender the
1300 level (yet again).

The Volatility Index (VIX) and the Nasdaq Volatility index (VXN) have
been slowly drifting lower, emphasis on slowly.  We're certainly not
seeing any real fear but investors are definitely not complacent given
the significant event risk in our future.

Meanwhile, buyers continue to flock to the golden metal and the April
gold contracts are back above the $355 mark.  Gold could have some
resistance at $360 but should the shooting start, odds are an emotional
spike will send it higher short-term.  Also heading higher are crude
oil prices.  Previously, oil futures hit a high near $40 a few days ago
but have since pulled back into a steady, unwavering march higher.  How
this commodity will react when the U.S. finally gives the word to
invade is a much-debated subject.

It appears the President and his allies are growing impatient and Wall
Street would like to stop waiting.  Next week should be interesting.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10353
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  7674

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7836
 50-dma: 8194
200-dma: 8550

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1106
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  822

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  833
 50-dma:  867
200-dma:  905

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1350
52-week Low :  795
Current     :  984

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  994
 50-dma: 1009
200-dma: 1004
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Both volatility indices appear to be resting as they know that
once the shooting starts it will be a race higher again.  The question
seems to be how high?  If the U.S. goes it alone the selling pressure
is going to be a lot greater than if they can actually swing the
security council to our side of the fence.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 36.34 +2.11
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 45.65 +1.31
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.94        475,474       445,198
Equity Only    0.86        309,870       267,675
OEX            0.93         19,702        18,390
QQQ            1.26         48,081        60,745
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          38.1    - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    34.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   13.3    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       31.6    - 2     Bull Correction
S&P 100       26.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.62
10-Day Arms Index  1.39
21-Day Arms Index  1.34
55-Day Arms Index  1.35

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1033          1796
NASDAQ     1196          1851

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        91              180
NASDAQ      56              106

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,497
NASDAQ     1,245
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/25/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials made few changes to either side of the equation,
resulting in a net change of 200 short contracts.  Small traders
added 2300 contracts to the long side.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/04/03      414,543   465,678   (51,135)   (5.8%)
02/11/03      412,333   472,156   (59,823)   (6.8%)
02/18/03      423,871   481,871   (58,000)   (6.4%)
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03      151,174    93,439    57,735     23.5%
02/11/03      161,126    95,618    65,508     25.5%
02/18/03      155,475    91,102    64,373     26.1%
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials added slightly to the long side and added 1,200 short
contracts.  Small traders left the long side alone and reduced
shorts by 2,000 contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03       40,934     50,992   (10,058) (10.9%)
02/11/03       39,412     53,818   (14,406) (15.5%)
02/18/03       38,486     50,501   (12,015) (13.5%)
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03       25,573     8,648    16,925    49.5%
02/11/03       29,667     8,915    20,752    53.8%
02/18/03       25,482     9,425    16,057    46.0%
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials increased the long side by 1,000 contracts and left
shorts relatively unchanged.  Small Traders reduced the long side
by 700 contracts and left the short side alone.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/04/03       17,596    11,232    6,364      22.1%
02/11/03       19,826    11,800    8,026      25.4%
02/18/03       18,812    11,939    6,873      22.4%
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/04/03        4,583     9,424    (4,841)   (34.6%)
02/11/03        5,390     9,300    (3,910)   (26.6%)
02/18/03        5,561     8,973    (3,412)   (23.5%)
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
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Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-06-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  SLAB
  Bearish Play Updates:  INFY

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     S
  Bullish Play Updates:  DHR, TOO
  Bearish Play Updates:  APD, UHS

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMGN, GLW
  Bearish Play Updates:  AW, CTAC
  Closed Bearish Plays:  IDPH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Silicon Labs - SLAB - close: 27.58 change: +0.72 stop: 25.74*new*

All eyes were on Intel tonight after the bell, well, at least
those eyes not waiting and watching for President Bush's
primetime press conference.  Bulls and Bears had to meet in the
middle over Intel as the chip giant narrowed its range for Q1
revenues.  Previously, the company gave guidance of $6.5 to $7.0
billion.  Now that range has narrowed to $6.6 to $6.8 billion.
Business may not be as bad as it could have been but it's not as
good as it could be either.  The stock (INTC) was trading down
after hours due to the news.  What our readers need to be aware
of is how the $SOX reacts to Intel's news.  If Intel continues to
sink tomorrow it could be the catalyst bears need to break
through the support at 280 on the SOX.  Should the SOX breakdown
then we seriously doubt that SLAB, as strong as it has been, will
be able to fight the up hill battle alone in the face of a
sinking sector.  Considering the environment we are pretty
encouraged by SLAB's strength.  The stock has taken the last two
sessions as an opportunity to bounce higher off its rising trend.
If SLAB traded in a vacuum we'd consider new longs.
Unfortunately it does not.  Thus, we're going to make the
following strategy changes.  Number one, we're upping our stop
loss to $25.74.  This was our entry point and stops us out at
breakeven barring any major gap down.  Number two, we're going to
set an official price target to exit the play for a profit.
Should SLAB trade at or above $29.50 we'll close the play.

Picked on February 20th at $25.74
Results since picked:       +1.84
Earnings Date            01/22/03 (confirmed)

Chart =


  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Infosys Technologies - INFY - cls: 57.61 chg: -1.29 stop: 62.51*new*

Weakness in the global markets continued yesterday and shares of
INFY continued to follow through on its failed rally at its 200-
dma on Monday's session.  Volume was stronger than normal on
Wednesday as the stock closed, rather distinctly, below the
$60.00 level of support.  Some investors are probably closing
positions and or being stopped out while bears are probably
applying more pressure by shorting it with more force due to the
breakdown.  INFY lost another two percent today and we're inching
down our stop loss another 50 cents to $62.51, just above the
200-dma.  We would not be surprised to see shares trade down to
$55 before bouncing but keep in mind the stock is down four days
in a row and probably needs to rebound a bit.  Short-term traders
not willing to hold on for our ultimate target closer to $51 can
try and target shoot a profitable exit as INFY approaches $55.00.

Picked on March 5th at $59.49
Results since picked:   +1.88
Earnings Date        04/11/03 (unconfirmed)

Chart =




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Sears Roebuck - S - close: 19.30 change: -0.70 stop: 21.11

Company Description:
Sears, Roebuck and Co. is a broadline retailer with significant
service and credit businesses. In 2002, the company's annual revenue
was $41 billion. The company offers its wide range of apparel, home
and automotive products and services to families in the U.S. through
Sears stores nationwide, including approximately 870 full-line
stores. Sears also offers a variety of merchandise and services
through its Web sites, sears.com and landsend.com, and a variety of
specialty catalogs. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Nary a day goes by that we aren't confronted with more evidence
of fundamental weakness in the retail sector.  The group is
already reeling from a tepid Holiday season and a nation full of
consumers who are more concerned with the looming war in Iraq
than missing the latest big sale at the mall.  Making a bad
situation even worse, the East Coast was recently hammered with a
severe winter storm that left many potential customers
involuntarily cocooned in their homes.  This had a decidedly
negative effect on several retailers, including Sears.  The
company reported today that its same-store sales for February
fell by 9.4%.  Analysts were expecting a decline of only 7.6%.
This news follows last Friday's credit rating reduction from
Standard & Poor's, who cut Sears from "A" status to "BBB+."

Today's news pushed S to new multi-year lows on the strongest
volume since January 16th.  This 3.5% decline was more than
enough to push the stock below critical support at $20.00.
Pulling up a yearly chart, we see that shares haven't traded this
low since Ronald Reagan's first term.  Now that's what we call a
historical breakdown!  In light of the technical and fundamental
weakness, we feel that S could be headed for the next level of
psychological support at $15.00.  We'll initially target a move
to that region.  Shorter-term traders might want to aim for
$16.00 or $17.00.  We know, that's a bit ambiguous...But with
shares trading at multi-DECADE lows, it's very tough to gauge
downside potential.  Suffice it to say we think the recent
downtrend will continue.  This hypothetical trade is active at
current levels with a stop at $21.11.  Very conservative traders
might want to use a stop slightly above today's high of $20.20.
Finally, on a purely anecdotal note: There's a Sears store
adjacent to the Premier Investor offices here in Denver.  With
the exception of the Holiday season, the surrounding parking lot
has been largely unfilled in recent months.  While that's not
information that one could base an investment decision on, it's
nonetheless interesting to see tangible evidence of the sales
decline that has weighed so heavily on Sears stock.

Annotated daily chart - S:



Picked on March 6th at 19.30
Results since picked   +0.00
Earnings Date       04/17/03 (unconfirmed)

Chart =



===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 63.20 change: -0.48 stop: 61.98

Ouch!  Shares of DHR have really pulled back from the Monday
highs.  There is little news for DHR to try and relate this move
to.  Thus the general marketwide weakness is to blame.  Chart
watchers will see that the pull back did stop at the bottom edge
of its rising channel.  Meanwhile, the stock's point-and-figure
chart has not changed and remains in a strong buy signal bouncing
up from strong bullish support.  It's a bit contrarian but this
actually appears to be a buying opportunity for bulls in DHR.
The only, and very very strong deterrent to creating new long
positions in DHR is the position of the broader markets of which
most of them are poised right on the edge of a major breakdown.
If traders are feeling aggressive, one could consider positions
here with a stop below today's low.  We would not suggest new
plays at this time.

Picked on February 26th at $64.36
Results since picked:       -1.16
Earnings Date            01/30/02 (confirmed)

Chart =


---

TOO Inc - TOO - close: 15.05 change: +0.16 stop: 14.39

Try as they might, the bears could not get TOO below the $14.50
level.  We suspected as much and it's why our stop is at $14.39.
Of course having the retail sector trade sideways gave the bulls
a much-needed break.  The next challenge for the sector probably
lies in the hands of WMT, the largest retailer on the planet.
Shares of WMT have also been churning sideways but today's candle
doesn't look that encouraging.  What is encouraging was the
rebound in shares of TOO from this morning's low.  Even more
exciting for any bulls still out there was the close back above
the $15.00 mark.  This stock was actually green today!  Despite
all the recent negativity, this play, much like DHR, appears to
be offering a bullish entry point to go long on the dip.
However, what concerns us is the precipitous positions of all the
major averages.  If President Bush says something extremely
hawkish, which we expect he will, then the markets are likely to
go lower heading into the weekend and thus this isn't exactly the
best time to be going long stocks.  Only aggressive traders
should evaluate new longs at this time.

Picked on February 27th at $15.66
Gain since picked:          -0.61
Earnings Date            02/19/03 (confirmed)

Chart =


  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Air Products - APD - close: 37.89 change: -0.45 stop: 40.06

Shares of APD are begrudgingly moving back towards the relative
lows.  A steady decline in the Dow Jones has helped to keep the
stock under psychological resistance at $40.00 and descending
resistance at the 21-dma (39.41).  This market weakness, however,
hasn't been a huge boon for the bears.  APD is more-or-less
trading sideways - albeit with a slight downward bias.  Shares
roughly mirrored the Dow Jones today with a 1.1% loss.  A glance
at sector leaders Dupont (DD) and Dow Chemical (DOW) shows that
both are looking weak - particularly the latter stock, which has
fallen to new relative lows.  Hopefully Air Products will soon
follow suit.  The bears have their work cut out for them if APD
is going to fall under its own relative low at $36.97.  On Friday
we'll be looking for shares to remain under short-term resistance
and move under today's low of $37.63.  Conservative traders can
continue to maintain a stop-loss slightly above the 21-dma.  We
are not advising new short positions at this time.

Picked on January 29th at $39.84
Results since picked:      +1.95
Earnings Date:          01/22/02 (confirmed)

Chart =


---

Universal Health Svcs. - UHS - cls: 38.05 chg: -0.57 stop: 40.16

On Wednesday UHS posted a small gain after rebounding near
$38.00.  But with the Dow Jones sinking lower this morning, the
bulls were unable to defend that support level. Our short play
was activated shortly after the opening bell when UHS traded at
$37.98.  Shares reached an intraday low of $37.93 before
gravitating back to the $38.00 level, where they traded for the
remainder of the session.  Although we would've liked to see UHS
close below support, the intraday breakdown is an indication that
the bulls' resolve is eroding.  On another interesting technical
note, check out a 15-minute chart.  See a pattern?  The stock
definitely has a tendency to make the lion's share of its
intraday moves within 15-30 minutes of the opening bell.  As
such, we would not be surprised to see UHS trade to new relative
lows on Friday morning.  This would provide an opportunity to
open new short positions.  Our stop-loss for this play is set at
$40.16, which is now above the falling 21-dma.  UHS hasn't traded
above that moving average since February 5th.

Picked on March 6th at 37.98
Results since picked   -0.07
Earnings Date       02/13/03 (confirmed)

Chart =




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 55.40 change: +0.76 stop: 52.51 *new*

Those frisky bulls just can't seem to get enough of our AMGN
play, as they drove the stock to a new intraday high of $55.95 on
Thursday before relaxing just a bit in the final hour of trade.
Despite the weakness in the broad market and the BTK index, AMGN
just keeps powering higher. Isn't it amazing what positive
guidance and a bullish price chart can do?  Throughout this play,
we have done well by targeting pullbacks to support for new
entries and despite the breakout over the past couple days, we're
going to stick with that winning formula.  The optimum entry zone
now looks like $54.00-54.50, as that area defined the
congestion/resistance area before the breakout over $55.  A
pullback into that region ought to provide a solid level for
initiating new positions, while more aggressive traders could
even target shoot as low as the $53.50 level (the site of the 20-
dma).  The multi-month ascending trendline has provided
consistent support throughout this play.  With the trendline
currently right at $53.00, we're giving AMGN a little extra
breathing room with a stop at $52.51.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +2.89
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)

Chart =


---

Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 5.50 change: +0.12 stop: 5.01 *new*

Wow!  We thought GLW might catch a bid in the wake of Tuesday
night's reiterated earnings forecast, and the bulls certainly
didn't let us down.  Shares gapped slightly higher on Wednesday
morning and traded strong throughout the session, despite a lack
of leadership from the NASDAQ.  Further bullish momentum this
morning sent the stock up to a fresh relative high of $5.60.
Shares then pulled back slightly and spent the remainder of the
session trading in a narrow range near $5.50.  You'll remember
from our original write-up for this play that we were
anticipating some resistance in the $5.60 area, near the February
highs.  In light of the recent rapid upward move, some additional
consolidation below that level could be expected.  Short-term
traders looking to harvest a gain of roughly 9% could think about
taking profits if shares roll over from current levels.  We're
looking for GLW to eventually make its way to our exit target at
$5.99.  Traders looking to open new positions might want to watch
for a pullback to previous short-term resistance in the $5.25-
$5.30 region, which should now provide support.  Our stop has
been raised to break-even at $5.01.

Picked on March 3rd at $5.01
Results since picked:  +0.49
Earnings Date       04/24/03 (unconfirmed)

Chart =


  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Allied Waste - AW - close: 8.02 change: +0.07 stop: 8.54 *new*

On Tuesday we touched on the fact that AW had formed a short-term
trend of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart.  Two days
later, that trend is still intact.  Shares were hit with heavy
selling this morning and pegged a session low of $7.68 - just
three cents above the relative low.  The bears appeared to lose
their resolve when that level was not violated.  AW worked its
way back to the $8.00 region but wasn't able to move above
yesterday's high of $8.11.  So what can we make of this action?
Bulls will argue that the intraday reversal created a double-
bottom pattern.  But with the aforementioned downtrend still
intact and the daily stochastics (5,3,3) heading lower, the bulls
are by no means out of the woods.  Continued broader market
weakness on Friday would help to push AW back down to the
relative lows.  We'll be watching for a breakdown below $7.65 to
send the stock towards our exit target at $7.06.  Our stop-loss
has been lowered to break-even at $8.54.  Conservative traders
looking to protect a small gain could use a stop slightly above
Wednesday's high.  New entries at this point are best left to
those with a speculative strategy, who might seize upon a
rollover from current levels.

Picked on February 20th at $8.54
Results since picked:      +0.52
Earnings Date           02/13/03 (confirmed)

Chart =


---

1-800 Contacts - CTAC - cls: 18.28 chg: +0.65 stop: 20.01

CTAC was looking dreadfully weak on Wednesday morning when it
broke to new relative lows after falling though short-term
support at $17.12.  With shares recently rolling over from the
100-dma and the broader market showing no leadership, it looked
as if the stock might be ready to make a concerted move towards
our downside target at $16.06.  But something strange happened on
the way to the Promised Land: CTAC bounced powerfully from whole-
number support at $17.00.  Shares traded strong for the remainder
of the session and finished the day unchanged.  The stock
continued to move higher today, seemingly oblivious of the
triple-digit decline in the Dow.  This reversal has certainly put
the bears on their toes.  However, it's interesting to see that
shares were once again turned back by the 100-dma ($18.46) on
Thursday.  The stock has additional overhead resistance at the
top of its loose regression channel near $19.00.  Conservative
traders may want to use a stop just above that level.  We're
maintaining our $20.01 stop, slightly above the descending 21-
dma.  In light of today's relative strength, we are not currently
recommending new entries.

Picked on February 20th at $18.80
Results since picked:       +1.17
Earnings Date            02/18/03 (confirmed)

Chart =



===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

IDEC Pharma. - IDPH - cls: 28.72 chg: +0.05 stop: 30.16

All this sideways action in IDPH is almost sleep-inducing.  Under
normal circumstances we have no problem with giving stocks plenty
of time to perform.  No doubt about it - IDPH has plenty of
downside potential if it DOES break down.  But what's concerning
about this stock is the fact that it hasn't responded to the
recent downtrend in the biotech index.  Over the past four
sessions the BTK.X has followed its descending trendline lower
from the 320 region.  Meanwhile, the stock has continued to hold
above support at $28.50.  This relative strength has earned IDEC
a one-way trip to our dropped play list.  We'd rather close this
paper trade at current levels for a 4.2% gain than wait around to
see whether or not shares will finally start responding to the
sector weakness.  However, speculative traders would be perfectly
justified in maintaining short positions with a stop slightly
above the descending 21-dma at $29.74.

Picked on February 13th at $29.99
Results since picked:       +1.27
Earnings Date            01/30/03 (confirmed)

Chart =



=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FLR     Fluor Corp                 30.15     +0.80
GLK     Great Lakes Chemical       21.72     +0.71

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

IMCL    Imclone Systems            16.58     +1.31
CBK     Christopher & Banks        15.30     +1.48
FINL    Finish Line Inc            13.31     +1.26

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

DRS     DRS Technologies           23.53     +2.13
ELAB    Eon Labs                   23.20     +1.11

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

OMC     Omnicom Group              49.02     -3.06
COO     Cooper Companies           28.30     -1.05
GD      General Dynamics           54.79     -1.60
NUE     Nucor Corp                 38.55     -2.41
BSX     Boston Scientific          42.17     -1.47
GAS     Nicor Inc                  28.43     -1.11
LOGI    Logitech Intl              30.17     -1.03
CTL     CenturyTel Inc             26.46     -1.27
RTN     Raytheon                   25.42     -1.49

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CKFR    Checkfree Corp             20.36     -0.38
BARZ    Barra Inc                  26.90     -0.60
ICST    Integrated Circuit Sys.    23.05     -0.05
LNBB    LNB Bancorp                30.49     -1.09




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