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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 03/12/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 03-12-2003
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Will History Repeat?
Watch List:       BAC, CSCO, DLX, LLY, XLNX, and more...
Play of the Day:  Two Possible Action Points

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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
03-12-2003                   High    Low     Volume Advance/Decl
DJIA     7552.07 +  28.01  7552.07  7416.64   1839 mln  877/925
NASDAQ   1279.24 +  7.77   1279.59  1253.22   1491 mln  824/601
S&P 100   408.92 +  2.18    408.92  400.24    totals    1701/1526
S&P 500   804.19 +  3.46    804.19  788.90
RUS 2000  345.94 -  1.09    347.03  343.06
DJ TRANS 1950.65 +  8.46   1951.63 1918.12
VIX        38.99 +  0.91     41.16   38.88
VIXN       47.50-   0.03     48.33   46.59
Put/Call Ratio 0.89
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Will History Repeat?
by Steven Price

For the last few months, the possibility of war has been blamed
for the market's big drop.  However, anyone watching only the
charts would have pegged a move right to these levels. I'm not
suggesting we ignore the environment in which we are trading, but
it is interesting just how reliable the technical indicators have
been.

I'm looking at the head and shoulders patterns that have formed
over the past few months in the Dow, OEX and SPX in particular.
It may have taken the specter of war to get us there, but the
breakdowns over the past few sessions mirrored those that we saw
over the summer-fall session. Not only did the Dow fulfill its
objective, as it did in October, but so did the SPX and OEX (more
on these objectives later). A look at the daily charts completes
the picture that I've been drawing over the past couple of months
and leaves us wondering if it's time to call a bottom, or jump on
short for a further breakdown.  Certainly we see no signs that
would indicate a possible reversal, with not only the U.S.
testing multi-month lows, but also European markets sinking hard.
The FTSE dropped 4.8%, the DAX fell 4.4%. When the market plague
is spreading across the globe, it is hard to find any reason to
step in long. However, we did see a big bounce after fulfilling
those objectives in the U.S. markets and bulls will point to
history (as far back as October, at least) as a possible
indicator that it is time for a rally.

Chart of the Dow


We continue to hear that the possibility of war is what drove the
recent collapse.  But we have known the U.S. was planning an
Iraqi invasion ever since last summer.  How then do we explain
the rallies of last fall and early January?  The easy explanation
is that last fall we got a number of earnings releases that,
while seemingly awful, weren't as bad as some had predicted. That
led to a reallocation between bonds and stocks that gave the
market a boost. Once we got into the retail season and saw signs
of further weakness in consumer spending, it was back down again
until the end of the year.  Then came the fund money.  Those
investors funding their retirement plans and brokerage accounts
at the beginning of each year were apparently the impetus for the
beginning of the year rally for the first couple of weeks, as was
the President's announcement that his stimulus plan would seek to
eliminate the tax on dividends.  That would have amounted to a
fundamental change in the value of dividend paying stocks and
gave the bulls an excuse to step back in.  However, the rally
failed once again, forming a nice right shoulder to the head and
shoulders pattern we saw market wide. The failure came as
companies beat fourth quarter expectations with January and
February earnings releases, but painted a grim picture for the
rest of the year.  We saw numerous lowered expectations and heard
many cautious statements. That turned attention back on the
economy and with war closer and fuel prices higher, there was a
snow ball effect.

We continue to get daily doses of international developments and
although we can spin them as bullish or bearish for the market,
the overall trend has remained down.  That indicates that even
developments that seem to delay the war, such as Britain's new
set of conditions for Iraq, can't seem to give the market a
boost. Most analysts simply say the market hates uncertainty and
once we know whether we will attack and when, we'll finally get a
rebound.  Another school of thought says that Britain's new
proposal suggests a split with the U.S. that indicates the U.S.
will be heading in alone. That could be bad for the U.S. markets,
as foreign investors pull money out of dollar denominated stocks.

While the war fears have remained consistent, the price of oil
has continued to climb as the timetable grows closer.  While we
have yet to approach the spike to $40 per barrel in the crude oil
futures that was achieved on February 27, we have maintained much
of the recent gains, with the futures still holding over $37.
That is a far cry from 2002's top right around $30. As fuel
prices remain high, business costs do as well.  In spite of OEPC
and Saudi Arabia's comments this week that they would make up for
any shortfall in the world oil supply in the case of war, anyone
who has filled up a car with gas recently is feeling the same
pinch as many businesses. We are already in a world of weak
business spending and the price of fuel continues to cut further
into the bottom line.  This can be seen especially in the Dow
Transports. Traditional Dow Theory relies on this average to
confirm moves in the Dow Industrials and so far we are seeing new
multi-year lows in that average.  When it bounced from its
October low on February 25, it appeared we may have seen a short-
term bottom.  However, that bounce was short lived and not only
have we rolled back over below that October low, but also took
out the September 2001 low on an intraday basis this morning.
That low followed the 9/11 attacks and cut the price of many
airline stocks in half.  The Transports seem to be signaling
another shot at the October lows in the Industrials, which would
give us another 200 points of downside, at least. However,
today's bounce back above that September 2001 low and into
positive territory by the close may also signal that we finally
reached at least a temporary floor, as we bounced from a
significant level.  At the very least, it signals a confluence of
important levels tested across the board today.

Another 200 points of downside may be wishful thinking for
shorts, but there is little argument that the trend is on their
side. There is little horizontal support on the bar charts to
indicate any point at which we might bounce now that we have
taken out the 7500 level intraday.  Not only was that the July
low, it was also the head and shoulders objective and the point
and figure target on the Dow Diamonds (75.00). The head and
shoulders objectives I referred to earlier are just below 400 in
the OEX; just under 790 in the SPX and 7500 in the Dow. Those
objectives were hit almost to the point in the OEX and SPX, with
lows of SPX 788.90 and OEX 400.24.  The fact that the Dow fell
below its H&S objective this morning can be seen one of two ways
when comparing it to the SPX and OEX.   Bears will view it as
signaling further weakness and as the first domino to fall ahead
of the others.  Bulls will cite the reversal after the objectives
were matched, similar to October's action, as well as the higher
number of stocks in the OEX and SPX and the ability to trade
futures on the SPX as signs that they are more representative of
true sentiment. If the bulls were able to defend those broader
averages, then maybe we should be weighing the action there more
heavily than the break below 7500 in the Dow.  Remember that the
Dow did not close below that H&S objective.  Also note the fact
that the Dow underperformed the others in October, hitting its
H&S objective while the others bounced just above theirs.  That
would be similar to relative levels we see now if we rally from
here.

Chart of the OEX


Chart of the SPX


Chart of Crude Oil Futures


Those point and figure charts are showing us some signals that
actually favor the bulls at this point. Now that we have
fulfilled the head and shoulders objectives in the broad market
indices, we are also seeing the bullish percents across the board
in oversold conditions. 30% is considered oversold and the
current readings are Dow 10% SPX 30% and OEX 24%. These bullish
percents measure the number of stocks in an index that are
currently giving buy signals on the point and figure charts. The
Dow saw its bullish percent sink as low as 4% in July and 8% in
October.  Those extended percents both signaled a coming rebound.
The current reading of 10% would indicate a similar extension and
when combined with the achievement of the 75.00 target on the
Diamonds, which are based on the Dow, we see a shift of risk less
in favor of the bears. The OEX is also bounced just 10 points
away from its target at 390.  The SPX target is 785, which we
came just points 3.90 points away from achieving, as well. The
SPX, however, derives its count from the current column it is
working on to the downside and if it does trade 785 on this drop,
the count is extended lower to 775 (and 10 additional points for
each five it falls until a rebound of 15 points).

Certainly none of these indicators is an absolute target.  Each
of the indices is made up of numerous stocks.  However, there are
plenty of technicians and institutions watching these patterns
and they tend to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If you were
going to pick a bottom, the completions of a number of head and
shoulders patterns, combined with extended, oversold bullish
percents might not be a bad place to do it.  Therefore, we tend
to get some nibbling from the long side when we achieve those
targets. The last time we achieved the Dow target, we got a
massive reversal the same day.  While we did end the day in the
green, registering a reversal of 140 points intraday, it still
does not measure up to the bounces we got in July or October off
the bottoms.   However, the fact that they successfully defended
the OEX and SPX head and shoulders fulfillments could still be
signaling at least a short-term bounce.  Certainly if history
were to repeat itself, a rally from these levels would fit the
pattern. How far that takes us is still anyone's guess and in a
weak economic environment, it may be just another shorting
opportunity.

Another indicator that has been reliable in the recent past has
been the Market Volatility Index (VIX).  The VIX has been range
bound between 34-35% and 40-41% for the past couple of months,
with moves to those levels signaling at least short-term
reversals in the equity markets.  The VIX, which measures option
premiums in the OEX, generally increases as the market drops and
traders are more leery of selling puts and decreases on the way
up as the fear abates. The upper end of that range has been
between 40-41% intraday, with each foray over 50% eventually
ending in a market bounce and a close below that level.  The 40%
mark was hit again today for the first time since February 13,
and voila! - a market bounce.  We traded as high as 41.16%
intraday, but finished the day at 38.99%.  Traders should have
this measure on their screens and exercise caution with current
positions think about tightening stops as we approach either end
of the range.

If traders are looking for a pocket of strength in stocks, they
should look no further than the formerly beleaguered
Semiconductor Stocks. This sector led the way down in 2002 and
again in late January. However, it stayed in the green for most
of the day and finished with a 3% gain.  While its hard to peg
just why these stocks are hanging in there, they have held
support at 280 ever since making a failed run at 300 a couple of
weeks ago. For those traders taking clues from this sector, it
gave a good indication that the early sell-off was doomed.

The Nasdaq Composite staged an equally impressive rally.  After
closing at new relative lows on Tuesday, it continued down past
its Feb 13 bounce level at 1261 and looked as though it was on
its way to a test of 1200. However, after bottoming at 1253, it
followed the Dow, SPX and OEX to a close up 7 points, finishing
on its highs of the day.

Financials got yet another dose of the ongoing credit problems.
It all started last year when J.P. Morgan suffered losses due to
growing problems with underperforming debt in the telecom
industry.  Those problems have extended to almost every area of
business, and also to consumers. Morgan Stanley was downgraded
today by Wachovia, which lowered its estimates for 2003 and 2004
due to weakening consumer credit trends which could lead to a
higher credit card charge-off scenario.

Chart of the VIX


So what did we see today?  We saw some downside objectives filled
and a big bounce afterward.  It wasn't the same type of major
reversal off the lows we saw in July and October, but it was
still an impressive defense by the bulls. The trend remains down,
and the world markets are still setting new lows.  However, with
oversold bullish percents, a VIX reading at the top of its range
and a recent drop of more than 1300 Dow points from the January
highs, the risks certainly seem to be shifting. I'm not going to
declare the end of the drop, but if there were ever a time for
the bears to start worrying and tightening their stops, this is
it.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Bank of America - BAC - close: 65.84 change: +0.21

WHAT TO WATCH: The financial sector continued to display weakness
on Wednesday, with both the BIX.X and BKX.X banking indexes
falling to fresh multi-month lows.  BAC followed suit and
continued to retrace its October gains.  It wasn't until the
final 90 minutes of trading that shares rebounded with the
broader market and erased the intraday losses.  That's not a bad
performance by the bulls...but we're not convinced.  We've seen
several of these "miraculous comebacks" by the Dow Jones over the
past few weeks, and every time the upward momentum has quickly
dissipated.  Should this be the case again, we like BAC as a
possible short at current levels.  The stock has fallen into a
fast-move region with no historical support until $54.00.  Short-
term traders could aim for bullish point-and-figure support at
$61.00.




---

Coach Inc - COH - close: 36.86 change: +0.70

WHAT TO WATCH: Did someone forget to tell Coach that the rest of
the market is tanking?!  The stock has shown incredible relative
ever since it rallied off its 50-dma (32.90) in late-February.
In sharp contrast to the Dow Jones, the stock has gradually
trended higher and moved up to all-time highs.  The tendency to
outperform the market was on display today, as shares traded
strong throughout the session and finished with a 1.9% gain.
With COH trading in blue-sky territory, shares could be headed
for a test of the next level of psychological resistance at
$40.00.  How to play Coach?  Those with an aggressive strategy
might want to target long entries at current levels.  A more
conservative approach would be to wait for a pullback to the
$35.00-$35.50 region.  FYI...the point-and-figure chart is
currently showing a bullish vertical count of $52.00.




---

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 12.69 change: -0.33

WHAT TO WATCH: CSCO was hit for a 2.5% loss today after fellow
networker Black Box (BBOX) announced that weak IT spending would
lead to a sharp reduction in its fourth-quarter results.  Some
analysts speculated that poor conditions in the small-to-medium
business market, from which Cisco derives about 25% of its sales,
could severely hamper the company's bottom line.  On the daily
chart, we see that CSCO has broken through support at $13.00
after tracing what looks an awful lot like a lopsided head-and-
shoulders formation.  The p-n-f chart is showing a fresh triple-
bottom breakdown, with shares now resting just above bullish
support at $12.00.  Short positions could be gauged on a
violation of that level, which would clear the way for a possible
decline to key psychological support at $10.00.  A failed rally
near $13.00 might also provide an entry point.




---

Deluxe Corp. - DLX - close: 37.78 change: +0.06

WHAT TO WATCH: Tuesday's violation of key support at $38.00 does
not bode well for shareholders of Deluxe.  Although the stock
tends to be a slow mover, there are some indications that the
downside momentum is accelerating.  After repeatedly finding
resistance at the 50-dma, the stock has more recently been unable
to clear its 21-dma at $39.19 - and yesterday's breakdown only
bolsters the bearish technicals.  Other than the August low of
$36.75, there is no clear underlying support until the $33.00
region.  Watch for a failed rally at $38.00 or a move under
today's low ($37.25) to provide a shorting opportunity.




---

eResearch Technology - ERES - close: 24.50 change: +0.23

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this IT company have displayed good
relative strength over the past week.  Slapping a regression
channel on ERES, we see that that stock has bounced from the
lower band and is currently trading just under ascending
trendline.  A breakout above that level (which roughly coincides
with psychological resistance at $25.00) might give aggressive
traders a chance to go long.  However, the most prudent strategy
for the bulls would entail waiting for a pullback to the bottom
of the channel, which is bolstered by the rising 21-dma at
$22.06.  ERES is currently trading at all-time highs.




---

Intl. Business Machines - IBM - close: 75.18 change: -0.17

WHAT TO WATCH: It's not looking good for Big Blue.  The stock was
hit for a steep intraday loss today after falling through support
at the 200-dma ($75.45).  This decline took IBM below its
February low.  Shares are now in danger of retracing powerful
October rebound from the $55.00 region.  A reasonable downside
target for short-term traders would be the bearish vertical count
of $68.00, which is derived from the point-and-figure chart.
Bearish positions could be evaluated at current levels, using a
stop above slightly above Monday's high of $76.33.  Very
conservative traders could use a stop just over today's high of
$75.63.  Of course, today's strong market reversal has raised the
possibility that IBM may have put in a short-term bottom.  We'd
be watching for renewed broader market weakness to provide some
bearish confirmation before gauging short entries.




---

Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 54.04 change: +0.34

WHAT TO WATCH: A protracted downtrend has taken LLY sharply lower
from its January highs near $68.00.  Shares managed to stabilize
above $55.00 in recent weeks, but that support level failed on
Tuesday.  The catalyst for the breakdown was a report that
Zyprexa, a drug used to treat schizophrenia, is under increasing
risk from a court challenge related to a generic competitor.
Zyprexa is Lilly's largest-selling drug.  With the $55.00
obstacle out of the way and both the MACD and daily stochastics
(5,3,3) looking weak, short-term bears will now be aiming for a
test of psychological support at $50.00.  The bar chart shows
possible underlying support at the August low ($51.35) and
$47.50.  Watch for a failed rally near $55.00 to present a
potential bearish entry point.  On a related note, shares of
fellow drug-maker Amerisourcebergen are also looking quite weak
after breaking through support at $50.00.




---

Xilinx Inc - XLNX - close: 23.35 change: +1.17

WHAT TO WATCH: XLNX was one of the best performing NASDAQ-100
stocks today, finishing with a 5.2% gain after rocketing higher
during the final two hours of trading.  The chip group was helped
along by Altera (ALTR), who raised its first-quarter estimates on
Wednesday morning.  The company now expects revenue growth of 4
percent sequentially, compared to the previous estimates of flat-
to-2 percent growth.  This bodes well for ALTR's competitors,
including LSCC and XLNX.  Technically, we like Xilinx as a
possible long play because the stock has lifted off its
converging 21-day and 50-day moving averages and broken out to
new relative highs.  In the current market it's quite difficult
to find other tech stocks that are displaying similar
bullishness.  But given the steep nature of this afternoon's
gains, it seems likely that shares could come back to test
previous short-term resistance at $22.80.  Long entries could be
gauged on a rebound from that region, which should now act as
support.





=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BULLISH High-risk/High-reward play)
=========================

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 55.16 change: +0.16 stop: 52.51

Company Description:
Amgen is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops,
manufactures and markets important human therapeutics based on
advances in cellular and molecular biology. (source: company
press release)

- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: February 11th, 2003 -

Why We Like It:
Finding a solid bullish trend that has existed for more than a
week in the current market environment is tough enough, but how
about a stock that has steadily posted higher highs and higher
lows since late September? Further narrowing the field, how many
stocks in that group are above their 50-dma, with the 50-dma
above the 200-dma? Not many. Believe it or not, we're talking
about Biotechnology giant, AMGN, which has been steadily marching
up the charts in defiance of the both the broader market weakness
and even the lackluster action in the Biotech index (BTK.X),
which is a lot closer to its October lows, than its December
highs. One factor that may be influencing the recent bullish
action could be the company's analyst meeting, currently
scheduled for February 25th. We could see a strong move leading
up to that event. Not only is the price action in AMGN impressive
(trading a new 9-month intraday high of $53.96 today), but so is
the volume. For example, today's rally to new relative highs was
backed by the strongest volume reading in over two weeks.

Overall, AMGN looks ready to stage a solid breakout with a trade
at $54.00. A trade at this level would create a double-top buy
signal on the point-and-figure chart. The p-n-f chart also shows
a bullish objective of $69. While that's a bit too high of an
upside target for our relatively short-term play, the daily chart
shows few obstacles in between current levels and the
psychological resistance at $60.00. This will be our initial
target region. At retest of the 2002 highs near $63.00 wouldn't
be out of the question if we get some cooperation from the BTK.X.
The weekly chart shows that AMGN is trading in a bullish wedge
with previous support (which might now act as resistance) at
$55.00. This level roughly coincides with a long-term trend of
lower highs. We're being somewhat aggressive with an action
trigger at $54.06. Traders seeking more upside confirmation may
want to wait for a move above $55.00. Alternatively, a pullback
to the rising 21-dma ($51.73) might also present an entry point
if you feel more comfortable buying a dip. Our stop-loss (if the
play is activated) will be set at $50.49. More conservative
traders could use a stop slightly below the 21-dma.

- Last Update: March 11th, 2003 -

While we wouldn't exactly call AMGN's behavior this week bullish
as the stock pulls back from last week's test of the $56
resistance level, compared to the rest of the market, this
biotech giant is still looking awfully good. We knew there was going
to be a fair amount of overhead congestion to work through
in this play, and that was the primary reason behind our avoiding
entries on breakouts. Instead, we've been looking to open new
positions on successful rebounds from support, most notably the
rising trendline that has now moved up to $53.30. While a dip
back to around the $53.50 level would certainly be a gift of an
entry point, the way the stock has held up in the face of the
weakness both in the broad market and in the BTK index, it seems
unlikely that we'll be so fortunate. So for traders still looking
for an entry into the play, the most likely area to consider new
positions would be on a dip and rebound from the vicinity of the
$54 level, which is prior resistance, as well as the site of the
20-dma. Traders looking to lock in a small gain could raise stops
to $53.25.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: March 12th, 2003 -

Wednesday afternoon's broader market rally helped to lift AMGN
from its intraday lows, slightly above previous resistance at
$54.00.  With two additional underlying support levels at the
ascending 21-dma ($53.94) and the long-term bullish trendline in
the $53.50 region, the bears will have tough time taking AMGN out
of its recent trading range.  Pullbacks to the rising trend have
offered optimal buying opportunities over the past four months.
With this in mind, bullish traders can use another test of the
$53.50-$54.00 region to offer a potential entry point.  Those
with a more aggressive short-term approach could consider adding
long positions on a move above stubborn resistance at $56.00.
Our stop for this play remains at $52.51.  More conservative
traders might want to use a stop slightly below $53.50.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +2.65
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)







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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 03-12-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Closed Bullish Plays: SLAB

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Triggered Plays:      MWD (bearish)

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
=================================================================

===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Silicon Labs - SLAB - close: 26.00 change: -0.18 stop: 25.74

No real surprise here.  SLAB's pattern of relative strength began
to fade on Tuesday as shares descended towards the rising 21-dma
near $26.00.  That level was broken during today's session as the
NASDAQ tanked to a new multi-month low.  Our break-even stop loss
was violated shortly thereafter.  Interestingly, the
semiconductor index actually outperformed the broader market
throughout the day and finished with a gain of nearly 3%.  Of
course the index still hasn't broken its recent downtrend and the
bulls will also be challenged by overhead resistance at 290 and
the 50-dma at 292.  As we said last night, SLAB has additional
underlying support at $25.00 and $24.00.  But in light of the
rolling oscillators (the MACD recently produced a bearish
crossover) and today's relative weakness versus the SOX.X, we're
satisfied to exit this play without a loss.  Traders still long
may want to be using a stop-loss just under today's low of
$25.30.

Picked on February 20th at $25.74
Results since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date            01/22/03 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

Triggered Plays
---------------

Morgan Stanley - MWD - close: 33.57 change: -0.75 stop: 36.51

This play exploded out of the starting block this morning after
Wachovia Securities reduced its profit outlook for Morgan
Stanley.  The firm said that weakening consumer credit trends had
prompted them to lower their full-year EPS forecast for 2003 from
$3.00 to $2.90, and 2004 expectations from $3.36 to $3.23.  These
comments resulted in a rapid morning sell-off that triggered this
short play at $34.19.  Shares based out above $32.50 and traded
near that level until the final two hours, when they were lifted
by the broader market rally.  If shares continue higher on
Thursday morning we'll be looking for MWD to roll over near the
February low of $34.32.  A failed rally from this region might
present a bearish entry point.  Our stop for this play is located
at $36.51.





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ESPD    Espeed Inc                 10.05     +0.60
TE      Teco Energy                10.71     +0.55

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MGAM     Multimedia Games          18.15     +1.19
POSS     Possis Medical            16.48     +1.55
NTES     Netease.com               11.72     +1.04

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

AVP     Avon Products              52.40     +1.27
UST     UST Inc                    29.65     +1.03

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ABC     Amerisourcebergen          48.70     -2.44
MRCY    Mercury Computer Sys.      25.78     -1.84
HAR     Harman Intl.               53.84     -1.58
RD      Royal Dutch                37.53     -1.33
APH     Amphenol Corp              38.42     -1.23
UN      Unilever N.V.              52.95     -1.32
NAB     National Australia Bank    85.77     -1.08

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

OEI     Ocean Energy               20.15     -0.20
PCO     Premcor Inc                24.57     -1.28




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