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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/13/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-13-2003
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Unbelievable
Play-of-the-Day:  Treading Higher
Market Sentiment: Persian Engulfed


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      03-13-2003           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     7821.68 +269.60  7824.34  7555.29 2.10 bln 2331/ 949
NASDAQ   1340.78 + 61.50  1340.78  1290.59 1.79 bln 2314/ 938
S&P 100   422.99 + 14.07   423.10   408.92   Totals 4645/1887
S&P 500   831.90 + 27.71   832.02   804.19
W5000    7886.48 +255.40  7887.38  7631.08
RUS 2000  355.44 +  9.50   355.46   345.94
DJ TRANS 2014.34 + 63.70  2014.76  1951.47
VIX        35.93 -  3.06    38.23    35.80
VXN        44.98 -  2.52    47.64    44.31
Total Volume 4,181B
Total UpVol    555B
Total DnVol  3,573M
52wk Highs  110
52wk Lows   256
TRIN       0.64
PUT/CALL   0.75
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Unbelievable

The bulls came stampeding back to the markets today for no
particular reason and ignored more bad economic news. Was it
the Elizabeth Smart news? Was it the rumor of mass defections
of Iraqi generals? Did Osama's great great uncle get arrested
for jaywalking somewhere? Nobody knows but the bulls were not
taking prisoners and the breadth of the rally was amazing.

Dow Chart - daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


The market was definitely not moving up on economic news.
The Jobless Claims fell -15,000 from last weeks upwardly
revised number of 435,000. Unfortunately that meant we
still had 420,000 new claims and the four-week moving
average rose to 420,000. This was the highest level since
December. This escalating trend shows the economy to be
picking up speed as it declines.

The Retail Sales fell -1.6% in February and well below the
consensus estimates for zero growth. The consumer is not
rushing out to hold up the economy and the siege mentality
is settling in. Reasons given were blizzards, high gas
prices, unemployment, terror alerts and war fears. Import
and Export prices both rose primarily due to high oil
prices. Friday is chock full of economic reports with
Business Inventories, Industrial Production, PPI and
Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Plenty of reason for the
market to be confused again but I am not sure it is
going to matter.

The Fed meets on Tuesday and there is a 29% chance of a
-25 point rate cut as predicted by the Fed Funds Futures.
Not a big chance but the various economic indicators could
be weighing more on the Fed than on consumers. There are
some thoughts that if the Fed cut rates they would take
a bigger cut of 50 points to send a stronger message. A
minimal 25 point cut would have no impact and they have
only a few bullets left in their gun. Time to react quickly
and use that megaphone. This could be what is powering
part of the bounce due to retail traders hoping to get
a 1990s style market bounce from a rate cut surprise.
Don't hold your breath. Odds are much better that they
will change the bias to easing and plan on a rate cut at
the May 6th meeting. Fed funds futures predict an 82%
chance of a cut at that meeting.

Earnings warning season arrives with a flourish next week
but there were several high profile warnings today. TYC
warned that it was slashing profit forecasts for 2003 and
had fired a division president for accounting irregularities.
The current chairman, Edward Breen, vowed to clean up the
"crap" and that heads would roll if any more problems were
found inside the company. Schwab warned that current
outlooks were too aggressive in light of trading volume
that was continuing to fall. They declined to issue an
outlook claiming no visibility. They said trades entered
had dropped -20% in February to 101,000 a day and so far
in March that number had dropped another -5%. International
Paper said demand was weak and getting weaker as the quarter
progressed. MYG said yesterday that demand began falling
off in February and had been decreasing rapidly since. This
appears to be the common thread, sharp drops in demand
across industries in February with increasing weakness
into March. Not a good sign.

The main reason given for the gains today was the removal of
the war premium from the market. With President Bush turning
into a kindler and gentler war planner and the starting date
pushed off until at least April 1st it appeared the pressure
was off. The resolution, no resolution, heck we may not even
take a vote stance seems to have finally hit home that we
are only doing the diplomatic dance to help Tony Blair and
pass time while we get all our troops repositioned. Thank you
Turkey. In reality the strongest rumor given for the rebound
was a report overnight that the CIA had already negotiated
surrender deals with many Iraqi generals. True or not this
potential for a parade into Baghdad instead of house to house
fighting had traders celebrating. I can imagine what is going
through Saddam's mind today. If his troops are already bailing
out without a shot being fired he must feel the walls closing
in quickly. Evidently the CIA has been sending emails, calling
them on their cell phones and dropping leaflets with phone
numbers and how to escape being obliterated. If these efforts
are working then Bush can take all the time he wants and end
up a hero with minimal military effort.

On Wednesday 15% of the S&P set a new 52-week low. Volume
was down 2:1 despite the end of day bounce. This was almost
bullish compared to the 18:1 down volume on Monday. Today
the volume was over 7:1 to the upside with over four billion
shares traded. This was the most volume in a single day since
Nov-22nd. The Day started out with a gap open and sold off
to just above 7600 before charging off to a break over 7800.
It was not a raging bull but more of a determined walk by
the entire herd. There were numerous strong resistance points
broken at 7600, 7650, 7740, 7785 and even 7800. Make no
mistake this was a powerful move. Not powerful enough to
propel the new highs over the new lows which came in at
110 highs to 256 lows, but strong enough to get the bears
attention. Unfortunately most of them were in denial all
day and I have to count myself as one of them.

Despite my exhortation on Tuesday night that there would
probably be a strong rebound soon and our challenge was
not to be caught off guard, I was caught off guard. The
+100 point gap open on negative economic news and Iraqi
surrender rumors had me believing another roll over was
in the cards. We did for about an hour but wise bears
used that drop to exit shorts. Notice I said wise bears.
The rest of us tried to short obvious resistance levels
on the way up and helped to feed the rally with our short
covering. As one trader put it, "I would do much better
if I checked my brain at the door and traded only with
my eyes." Ah yes, a wise man.

Of course the $64 question is what will happen tomorrow.
I got more email than "Dear Abby" after the close today
with unsolicited reasons that the market would go up/down
tomorrow. Some of them were very creative, others very
technical, many very emotional and none of them guaranteed.
The next material resistance is Dow 7900-7925 but then
material resistance only served to slow the index today.
There are significant indications that the large drops
over the last month may have created serious deficiencies
in market makers option accounts and along with institutional
traders they are trying to square these positions by running
the markets up. While I think there may be big holes in
accounts I doubt this scenario. It may have an impact but
you don't get four billion shares from a few market makers.
I think there are many more factors at work here. Steve
Price pointed out that the Wednesday dip hit his targets
for the H&S patterns from the last month. Somebody else
pointed out that the oversold conditions created earlier
this week were just too severe to be ignored prior to a
Fed meeting once the war was postponed for three more
weeks. As I pointed out Tuesday night there was likely
to be some strong asset allocation moves soon. I think
it was the combination of all these factors that stimulated
the initial move and short covering did the rest.

Take a close look at the Nasdaq chart above and I am sure
you will see that very strong resistance at 1350. This
is going to be a challenge to the bulls after a +61 point
gain on Thursday.

I don't think those factors are done. Our gains today
should stimulate the Europe/Asian markets to gains and
we should see a positive open tomorrow. The futures are
up tonight and there was no negative news after the close.
The UN vote/no vote has been put off until Monday and
the war until April. However, there are still shorts in
the market. After being hammered today and seeing the
result of the Osama rumors this week they will NOT want
to be short over the weekend. This should provide lift
to the markets on Friday.

Late news at 7:15 tonight. Dow Jones is reporting that
Iraq has moved artillery capable of firing chemical or
biological warheads to several locations just north of
the Kuwait border. US officials said the artillery
posed a direct threat to the US troops in the Kuwait
staging areas. US officials also said Iraq was
positioning surface to surface missiles in far western
Iraq in an apparent attempt to use chemical or biological
weapons against Israel. NBC reported that the US military
was prepared to launch preemptive attacks against the
new artillery and missile sites "before the Iraqis have
a chance to use them." Futures took a dive on the news.
Never a dull life as an investor! This just shows how
tentative Friday's rally could be. All bets for Friday
are officially off. Trade what you see.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


===============
Play-of-the-Day   (New BULLISH Active Trader/non-tech play)
===============

Timberland Co. - TBL - close: 40.69 change: +1.46 stop: *text*

Company Description:
The Timberland Company designs, develops, engineers, markets and
distributes, under the Timberland, Timberland PRO and Mountain
Athletics by Timberland brands, footwear and apparel and
accessories products for men, women and children. The Company's
products fall into two primary groups, footwear and apparel and
accessories (including product care and licensed products).
Timberland's products are sold in the United States and
international better-grade department stores and athletic stores.
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
A scan of news stories for TBL turns up few recent developments.
As a matter of fact, the latest noteworthy event was the
company's earnings announcement on February 6th.  But what an
announcement it was!  Timberland reported fourth-quarter results
that beat Multex estimates by 11 cents per share, and revenue
growth of 4.7% on a year-over-year basis.  Not too shabby,
considering the otherwise bearish retail environment.  The
company's CEO also said that TBL is anticipating low double-digit
revenue growth in the first half of 2003 and mid single-digit
growth for the second half.  These sunny expectations did not
fall on deaf ears.  TBL gapped higher in reaction to the earnings
report and hasn't looked back.  Shares have shown excellent
relative strength over the past five weeks, trading contrary to
the steadily downtrending Dow Jones.  Shares of competitors Nike
(NKE) and Reebok (RBK) are also trading at or near long-term
highs.

After a brief pullback from resistance at $40.00, today's broader
market rally helped to push TBL to new multi-month highs.  This
breakout created a double-top buy signal on the point-and-figure
chart.  The bullish vertical count is $66.  Glancing at the
weekly chart, you can see that the next region of overhead
resistance is at the May 2002 highs of $43.00.  This would offer
a possible short-term upside target.  We're anticipating that TBL
will eventually break above that level and make its way towards
the highs for that year in the $45.50 area.  Our entry strategy
for this play will be to enter a hypothetical long position if
TBL breaks above today's high of $40.80.  Conservative traders
might want to wait for shares to first pull back and test the
$40.00 level, which should now offer support.  If the play is
activated our stop will be set at $38.74, slightly under
yesterday's low.  Those with a more aggressive strategy could use
a stop below the rising 21-dma at $38.25.  TBL hasn't traded
under that moving average since it gapped higher on February 6th.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <-- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)





================
Market Sentiment
================

Persian Engulfed
by Steven Price

Just how oversold were the markets when we fulfilled our head and
shoulders objectives?  Just how much bounce will we get if Iraq
continues to throw bones to the U.N.? How bullish is a candle
that engulfs a week's worth of losses? We got a look at the
answers to those questions today when the both the broad markets
and techs bounced strongly, continuing the mid-day reversal that
began Wednesday.  The Dow reached as high as 7824 intraday
(settling near its high), while the Nasdaq Composite took off
through the 1300 mark that head been previous support and so far
did not act as resistance and didn't stop until it approached a
test of the next resistance at 1350.  It closed at 1340 with an
amazing 60-point gain for the day.

The gains came in spite of economic data released this morning
that came in worse than expectations and signaled more trouble
ahead for the economy.  The initial jobless claims data for last
week showed a drop of 15,000 to 420,000, which sounds positive on
the surface. However, it was still higher than the expected
418,000 and the second highest level of the year.  The four-week
moving average, which most economists use to gauge the health of
the job market, rose by almost 10,000 to 419,750.  Any number
above 400,000 indicates a worsening labor market and the rise
this week and since January shows a disturbing trend.  That four-
week average is up 35,000 in the last five weeks and is at its
highest level of the year.

The jobless data would also seem to confirm the retail sales
decline we saw today. Retail sales were expected to drop 0.5%,
but instead more than tripled that expectation with a drop of
1.6%.  The drop was the biggest since November 2001 and signals
further reluctance to spend in the face job losses and war fears.
Some of that loss is made up by the upward revision in January's
number from a loss of 0.9% to a gain of 0.3%. Still, the trend
does not look promising and most likely will not change as long
as the unemployment picture remains negative. The retail sector,
however, still participated strongly in the rally, along with the
broader markets, jumping 4.7% and just breaking through
resistance at 260, with a close of 260.74.   Whether the data
wasn't as bad as bears were hoping for - leading to a round of
short covering, or the group just participated in a huge broad
market rally, it managed to engulf the trading range of the last
six weeks with a giant bullish candle in spite of the poor
numbers.

One of the catalysts behind the rally was yet another delay on a
U.N. vote authorizing the use of military force in Iraq.  The
U.S. had set a deadline for a vote this week, but now appears to
be waffling as it lacks the vote to pass its latest resolution.
White house spokesman Ari Fleischer said, "It may conclude
tomorrow. It may continue into next week."   The fact that
Britain has now offered another set of steps, six in all, that
Iraq could take to avert war, suggests that one of the U.S.'s
strongest allies is also beginning to look for other solutions to
war. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is feeling a tremendous
amount of heat in his own country over his previously undaunted
support of the U.S. and the latest suggestion implies even he is
now fearful for his political future. With China, France, Germany
and Russia all seemingly entrenched against action, the
possibility that there is no invasion for some time, or at all,
seems to be increasing. The U.S. seems set on gaining enough
votes to pass a measure and may re-think its strategy if it
cannot.  While the number of U.S. troops in the region suggest
that we are going in regardless of how the U.N. plays out, the
markets seem to be pricing in a longer delay at least.  If that
delay takes us much further, the weather may be prohibitive for a
ground attack in chemical suits and theoretically the current
situation could drag on until later in the year when the weather
in Iraq relents. So far President Bush has shown no signs of
retreating so the scenario still favors a U.S. attack, but there
is no doubt that the market is having doubts.

Maybe all of this talk of how the market will react to war is
pointless.  After all, as I pointed out in Wednesday's wrap, just
looking at the charts could have told us where we were headed, as
we fulfilled the head and shoulders objectives in the Dow, OEX
and SPX on Wednesday before a big bounce.  That action is similar
to what we saw in October when the Dow fulfilled its own H&S,
although the others did not.  With oversold bullish percents
across the board and the fulfillment of the pattern after a drop
of 1400 Dow points, maybe it is simply time for a big oversold
bounce. The specter of war has been with us for almost a year, so
trying to figure out how we will react to that threat on an
almost daily basis is awfully difficult. The broader picture can
be seen in the charts and today they suggested a reversal off the
head and shoulders bottom.

We may also be seeing a major asset allocation triggered by those
H&S completions from bonds back into stocks.  The five and ten
year notes were hammered today, confirming the move back into
equities. We tend to see these shifts at market tops and bottoms
and certainly Wednesday and today's shift seemed to indicate
institutions were reallocating after the extended equity drop. In
fact, the jump in the ten-year yield engulfed the slide of the
last eight sessions, keeping with our theme.

However, we have heavy resistance at Dow 8000, and any rally will
still have to compete with weak economic data, high fuel costs
and an uncertain global picture. I think back to last fall, when
we also had oversold bullish percents, poor economic data and
disappointing earnings.  That oversold bounce lasted a while and
we could be seeing a repeat here. So far each bounce has
eventually failed and deciding when a rally is for real is the
trick.  We got a confluence of factors, with the H&S objectives
and the U.N. vote being pushed back, all coming from oversold
conditions. These all led to the reversal of the last two days
from Wednesday's lows. I'd likely start buying into the
possibility if we trade back over 8000 and certainly over 8160.
The Nasdaq Composite has resistance at 1350, but broke through
the resistance at 1300 and 1320 today.  Bears should also be
looking at that 1350 level as a possible white flag scenario.
Until we cross those barriers I'm thinking oversold bounce.
However, it felt that way in October and December as well, and
those bounces lasted a while.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  7821

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7708
 50-dma: 8118
200-dma: 8488

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  831

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  822
 50-dma:  860
200-dma:  898

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1031

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  987
 50-dma: 1006
200-dma:  997
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX):  The semiconductor stocks finally
exploded higher today, as the SOX outperformed even the big gain
in the Nasdaq with an 8% gain.  The resistance at 300 held for
the first couple of hours as the market held steady, but once it
took out that level, it put on another ten points and
outperformed almost every sector index. It ran so far it topped
out at the next resistance level of 310, but did so on the rise
at the end of the day.  310 acted as resistance in December and
the next horizontal level above that is 330.  However, the
descending 200-dma now sits at 318.  It has not broken that 200-
dma since falling through on May 21, 2002. The closest it came
was on December 2, when the 200-dma sat all the way up at 407 and
the index traded 393. If it does break through that 200-dma at
318, expect a run to 330.

52-week High: 393
52-week Low : 214
Current:      310

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 286
 50-dma: 292
 200-dma: 318
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX continued its drop since signaling a market bounce at 40%
on Wednesday morning. The massive rally in the OEX of 23 points,
along with 400 in the Dow and 43 in the SPX drove the VIX all the
way down to 35.93.  You know what that means  - possible pullback
coming as the VIX reaches the 34-35% range. The VIX hasn't closed
below 34% since the end of January, and has signaled an equity
reversal down each time it has reached that level, although it
did drop to 32.98 intraday on the failed March 3 run at Dow 8000.
Bulls should look to tighten stops as we approach 34% if the
rally continues.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 35.93 -3.06
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 44.98 -2.52
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.75        802,734       603,981
Equity Only    0.61        607,265       373,093
OEX            1.18         42,031        49,431
QQQ            1.07        107,371       114,835
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          35.4    - 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    33.0    + 2     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   10.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       28.4    - 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       23.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.96
10-Day Arms Index  1.79
21-Day Arms Index  1.47
55-Day Arms Index  1.41

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       2212           675
NASDAQ     2212           852

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        54              111
NASDAQ      57               81

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       2,067
NASDAQ     1,778
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/04/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov <http://www.cftc.gov>.

Small specs are the general trading public with
commercials being financial institutions.
Commercials are historically on the correct side of
future trend changes while small specs tend to be
wrong.

S&P 500

We hear about trading volumes falling but now we're seeing it
in the institutional futures positions as well.  Commercial
traders remain net short, expecting the market to go down.
Small traders are still net long and actually increased the
number of contracts on both sides of the fence.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/11/03      412,333   472,156   (59,823)   (6.8%)
02/18/03      423,871   481,871   (58,000)   (6.4%)
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)
03/04/03      426,053   472,492   (46,439)   (5.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/11/03      161,126    95,618    65,508     25.5%
02/18/03      155,475    91,102    64,373     26.1%
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%
03/04/03      164,759    98,636    66,123     25.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

The professional traders in the NDX futures are just trading
water.  There is little difference from the week before.
Meanwhile the individual trader has bumped up the number
of short contracts but remains net long.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/11/03       39,412     53,818   (14,406) (15.5%)
02/18/03       38,486     50,501   (12,015) (13.5%)
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)
03/04/03       39,934     52,978   (13,044) (14.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02


Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/11/03       29,667     8,915    20,752    53.8%
02/18/03       25,482     9,425    16,057    46.0%
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%
03/04/03       24,240     8,038    16,202    50.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Looks like interest has been picking up for the DJ futures.
Commercials upped both the long and short sides of the contracts
but remain net long (expecting the Industrials to go up).
The small trader slid a bit more to the bullish camp but
remains net short overall.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/11/03       19,826    11,800    8,026      25.4%
02/18/03       18,812    11,939    6,873      22.4%
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%
03/04/03       21,326    12,724    8,602      25.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/11/03        5,390     9,300    (3,910)   (26.6%)
02/18/03        5,561     8,973    (3,412)   (23.5%)
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%)
03/04/03        5,233     8,075    (2,842)   (21.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-13-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  INFY

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     TBL
  Bullish Play Updates:  TOO
  Bearish Play Updates:  MWD, S, UHS
  Closed Bearish Plays:  KSS

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMGN
  Bearish Play Updates:  CTAC
  Closed Bearish Plays:  AW

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Infosys Technologies - INFY - cls: 58.67 chg: +1.20 stop: 60.01

Is this an historic day in the markets?  European markets soared
higher with the London FTSE up over six percent, Germany's DAX
was up almost seven percent and France's CAC closed higher by
over 6%.  Meanwhile, the dollar posted its second big day in a
follow through from yesterday's rally.  The American markets took
off as well, fueled by short-covering, the Industrials gained
3.5% and the Nasdaq 100 gained over 6%.  Also posting a super
strong rally was the GSO.X software index.  The GSO broke back
above the 100 level and closed above most of its significant
moving averages.  Needles to say it was a tough day for bears in
the software sector.  Shares of INFY rallied from Wednesday's low
of $55.10 to today's high of $59.42.  Yes, we're encouraged that
resistance at $60.00 held tight but there is a growing
expectation that this broad market rally might continue for a
couple of more sessions.  This would almost guarantee that we'll
be stopped out of INFY at $60.01 (assuming there is not gap
higher at the open).  Unless INFY can start to show some stock-
specific weakness.  The Indian stock market was flat today
despite the rally in most western markets.  We're going to keep
this play open for now and let our stop do the work it's supposed
to do by keeping our losses light.  It's possible that a dip in
the Dollar's strength tomorrow could keep this play intact.  We
would not suggest any new plays at this time.

Picked on March 5th at $59.49
Results since picked:   +0.82
Earnings Date        04/11/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Timberland Co. - TBL - close: 40.69 change: +1.46 stop: *text*

Company Description:
The Timberland Company designs, develops, engineers, markets and
distributes, under the Timberland, Timberland PRO and Mountain
Athletics by Timberland brands, footwear and apparel and
accessories products for men, women and children. The Company's
products fall into two primary groups, footwear and apparel and
accessories (including product care and licensed products).
Timberland's products are sold in the United States and
international better-grade department stores and athletic stores.
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
A scan of news stories for TBL turns up few recent developments.
As a matter of fact, the latest noteworthy event was the
company's earnings announcement on February 6th.  But what an
announcement it was!  Timberland reported fourth-quarter results
that beat Multex estimates by 11 cents per share, and revenue
growth of 4.7% on a year-over-year basis.  Not too shabby,
considering the otherwise bearish retail environment.  The
company's CEO also said that TBL is anticipating low double-digit
revenue growth in the first half of 2003 and mid single-digit
growth for the second half.  These sunny expectations did not
fall on deaf ears.  TBL gapped higher in reaction to the earnings
report and hasn't looked back.  Shares have shown excellent
relative strength over the past five weeks, trading contrary to
the steadily downtrending Dow Jones.  Shares of competitors Nike
(NKE) and Reebok (RBK) are also trading at or near long-term
highs.

After a brief pullback from resistance at $40.00, today's broader
market rally helped to push TBL to new multi-month highs.  This
breakout created a double-top buy signal on the point-and-figure
chart.  The bullish vertical count is $66.  Glancing at the
weekly chart, you can see that the next region of overhead
resistance is at the May 2002 highs of $43.00.  This would offer
a possible short-term upside target.  We're anticipating that TBL
will eventually break above that level and make its way towards
the highs for that year in the $45.50 area.  Our entry strategy
for this play will be to enter a hypothetical long position if
TBL breaks above today's high of $40.80.  Conservative traders
might want to wait for shares to first pull back and test the
$40.00 level, which should now offer support.  If the play is
activated our stop will be set at $38.74, slightly under
yesterday's low.  Those with a more aggressive strategy could use
a stop below the rising 21-dma at $38.25.  TBL hasn't traded
under that moving average since it gapped higher on February 6th.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <-- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

TOO Inc - TOO - close: 15.78 change: +1.12 stop: 14.49

It was a heady day for the bulls.  First the overseas markets
took off and the U.S. markets were not far behind.  Shorts began
to panic and the squeeze was on.  The beaten down retail sector
rocketed higher with a 4.7% gain in the $RLX.X retail index.
This put the RLX above the 260 level of resistance and above its
50-dma.  Shares of TOO were more than happy to participate in the
rally and added 7.6% by the close.  We are encouraged that TOO
has built several days of support at $14.50 and that today's
rally was powered by decent volume.  However, TOO isn't out of
the woods yet.  The stock could still see significant resistance
at $16.00 (actually $15.80 to 16.00) and the declining 50-dma at
16.60 could be an obstacle.  We would be reluctant to chase TOO
at this time but traders who prefer to buy on the dip can wait
and watch for a bounce near $15.50.  Should a dip fail to appear
then the next best entry might be a move over $16 but only with a
tight stop to limit exposure.  Remember, this particular play was
started as a bottom-fishing, reduced risk, all-the-selling-looks-
exhausted type of strategy.  The overall economic conditions in
this country didn't improve overnight and retailers still have an
uphill battle ahead of them.

Picked on February 27th at $15.66
Gain since picked:          -0.56
Earnings Date            02/19/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Morgan Stanley - MWD - close: 36.08 change: +2.51 stop: 36.49

It's been a very interesting two days for MWD.  The stock headed
sharply lower on Wednesday morning after Wachovia slashed its
earnings expectations for Morgan Stanley.  Our bearish play was
activated at $34.19.  Shares eventually leveled out above $32.50
and remained below $33.00 until the end of the trading day, when
strong upward action in the Dow Jones gave the bulls a chance to
recoup some of the early-session decline.  Despite the late
gains, MWD looked technically weak after tagging a new multi-
month low on the strongest volume since last September.
Unfortunately that stock-specific bearishness didn't amount to
much on Thursday.  The XBD.X broker/dealer index responded
particularly well to the broader market rally and tacked on
nearly 6%.  Short-covering in MWD was even more fierce, as shares
trended higher throughout the session before finishing with a
gain of 7.4%.  Similar action on Friday would probably result in
a violation of our stop-loss at $36.49.  Tomorrow morning we'll
be watching for shares to remain under our stop and move back
towards psychological support/resistance at $35.00.  The stock is
already sitting on some very large gains (it's risen more than
11% from yesterday's low) and could easily succumb to some
profit-taking if the market finally calms down.  In light of
today's powerful gains, we are not recommending new entries at
this time.

Picked on March 12th at $34.19
Results since picked:    -1.89
Earnings Date         04/20/03 (confirmed)





---

Sears Roebuck - S - close: 18.62 change: unch stop: 21.11

Unchanged?  That's it?!  On a day when the Dow Jones exploded by
269 points and the RLX.X posted its largest single-day percentage
gain of the year, the lack of a corresponding rally in Sears is
very encouraging for the bears.  S kicked off the day on a
positive note when it gapped higher with the market.  This
followed Wednesday afternoon's release of the company's 10-Q
filing with the SEC, which showed that Sears is planning to leave
its capital spending mostly unchanged in 2003.  The filing also
showed that S repurchased $400 million of common stock in 2002.
While neither one of these facts comes as a major surprise,
today's relative weakness suggests that analysts may have found
something they didn't like within the report.  Another factor
that might have pressured the stock is this morning's retail
sales data, which showed a larger-than-expected decline of 1.6%.
Of course that news didn't pressure shares of other department
store retailers such as JWN, DDS, FD, and TJX, which all finished
with sizable gains.  In any case, we're quite pleased with Sears'
failure to rally with the market.  We don't think many investors
will be eager to move into a stock that couldn't even squeeze out
a gain on a day when the RLX.X retail index gained 4.7%.
Tomorrow we'll be looking for S to extends its recent downtrend
and break under the relative low of $18.32.  New entries could be
evaluated if this occurs.  Our stop remains set at $21.11, above
the descending 21-dma.  Those looking for less upside risk could
use a stop slightly above either psychological resistance at
$20.00 or Friday's high of $20.30.

Picked on March 6th at 19.30
Results since picked   +0.68
Earnings Date       04/17/03 (unconfirmed)




---

Universal Health - UHS - cls: 37.62 chg: +0.52 stop: 39.06 *new*

The latest huge reversal rally in the three major equity indices
provided an ideal climate for the bulls to make their presence
felt in UHS.  After all, some short-covering could've been
expected to consolidate the recent downdraft from $40.00.  That's
exactly what's happened over the past day-and-a-half as shares
clawed their way back from Wednesday's low of $36.40.  But
looking at a 5-minute chart of Universal Health, you wouldn't
know that the rest of the market was going vertical.  The bounce
in UHS has been far more sedate, with shares actually trading in
negative territory this afternoon before the bulls finally
responded to the upward action in the Dow Jones.  Finishing with
a gain of only 1.4%, the stock clearly underperformed both the
Dow and the HMO.X health provider index.  If continued broader
market strength pushes UHS higher on Friday we'll be looking for
resistance to emerge at $38.00 (formerly short-term support) and
the descending 21-dma at $38.41.  Very conservative traders could
use a stop slightly over that moving average.  We're bumping our
stop down to $39.06, just above resistance from last week.
Traders thinking about new positions need to exercise caution.
Even though UHS didn't respond very well to today's rally,
further broader market gains might give bulls the upper hand.

Picked on March 6th at 37.98
Results since picked   +0.36
Earnings Date       02/13/03 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Kohl's Corp - KSS - close: 54.70 change: +3.64 stop: 53.06

The premise of this short play was to grab KSS at the top of its
descending regression channel and ride it towards the relative
lows.  Alas, the market did not cooperate with our plans.  The
broad-based equity rally that began on Wednesday afternoon helped
to lift shares from the $50.00 region.  Continued bullishness
during today's session provide a favorable climate for a large
short-covering rally in the RLX.X retail index, which posted its
largest gain in several months.  This came in spite of a larger-
than-expected decline in retail sales data.  KSS gapped higher
and quickly moved above the top of its descending channel.  The
50-dma at $52.68 was also dispatched with little effort.  Our
stop-loss at $53.06 was violated shortly thereafter, thus closing
this play for a hypothetical loss of 4.6%.  Our conservative risk
management was implemented with the thought that if shares did
break out of the long-term downtrend, the technical picture would
no longer favor the bears.  Of course the retail sector still
faces the same fundamental problems and KSS has already risen
sharply from its relative lows.  On the daily chart we see
overhead resistance at $55.00 and $58.50.  An eventual failed
rally near the latter level might set up another bearish entry
scenario.

Picked on March 11th at $50.70
Gain since picked:       -2.36
Earnings Date         03/04/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 56.98 change: +1.82 stop: 53.98 *new*

Consistent as the rising sun, AMGN blasted off with the rest of
the market today, closing just below a new high of $57.00.  While
things certainly looked a bit dicey Wednesday morning with the
broad market weakness, the long-term uptrend suggested that a
move down to the $54 support level might offer a decent entry
point into the play.  Sure enough, that dip was eagerly bought by
the bulls, as the stock rebounded strongly into the close, ending
near unchanged.  But the real excitement came on Thursday, with
the market's gapping higher and propelling AMGN higher by the
middle of the day.  With the rampant short-covering throughout
the market, shares just continued rising right up to the close.
Remember that our approach on this play has been to not try to
chase the breakouts, waiting for the pullbacks to support
instead.  New entries on breakouts are better suited towards more
aggressive traders.  Support seems to be rock solid near
yesterday's lows, so we're raising our stop to $53.98 tonight.
Traders still looking for an entry into the play will want to
focus on a rebound from the area of this morning's gap up
($55.20-55.50) as the likely support area.  Our upside target
region is $60.00, so conservative traders will want to consider
harvesting gains as we approach that level.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +4.47
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

1-800 Contacts - CTAC - cls: 19.30 chg: +0.63 stop: 20.01

Thin volume characterized the action in CTAC on Thursday, with
the stock seeing only a handful of trades go through during the
middle of the session.  Most of the movement occurred early in the
morning when shares popped above $19.00, and then at the
tail-end of the session when broader market bullishness propelled
CTAC to a closing high of $19.30.  These gains weren't enough to
push the stock above Tuesday's high of $19.35, which should now
provide some measure of resistance.  The bulls face a more
formidable obstacle at the relative high of $19.70.  But with
volume beginning to dry up (relative to the past three weeks),
the lack of liquidity might make it more difficult to execute
exit or entry strategies.  As such, we are not recommending new
bearish positions at this time, and traders may also want to
think about covering their shorts if CTAC rebounds again from the
$18.50 region.  A violation of that level would open the door to
a possible retest of the relative lows, but for that to occur
we'd probably need to get some cooperation from a pullback in the
major indexes.

Picked on February 20th at $18.80
Results since picked:       -0.50
Earnings Date            02/18/03 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Allied Waste - AW - close: 8.44 change: +0.54 stop: 8.54

Congratulations are in order for traders who chose to lock in
gains near $8.00.  AW certainly looked bearish earlier this week,
but with the Dow Jones covering more than 400 points in less than
two days, the bears were helpless to maintain the recent
downtrend.  Shares gapped higher this morning and never looked
back.  It wasn't until the stock reached psychological resistance
at $8.50 that the bulls finally relented.  Although this left our
stop-loss at $8.54 unmolested, the technical bullishness
suggested by the rising oscillators, broken downtrend, and
increasing volume is hinting at a continued retracement of the
mid-February sell-off.  Today's close above the descending 21-dma
($8.35) is also a concerning sign for the bears.  We've closed
this play at current levels for a gain of 1.1%.  Traders who are
a bit more lenient could maintain short positions with a stop
slightly above $8.50.

Picked on February 20th at $8.54
Results since picked:      +0.10
Earnings Date           02/13/03 (confirmed)





=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PHM     Pulte Homes                48.00     +1.56
CTX     Centex Corp                51.78     +2.37
FLR     Fluor Corp                 31.49     +2.29
PCAR    Paccar Inc                 48.44     +2.62
ELBO    Electronics Boutique       14.69     +0.98
MSTR    Microstrategy Inc          24.20     +2.07
GTK     Gtech Holdings             30.10     +0.74
AET     Aetna Inc                  45.62     +2.74

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TER     Teradyne Inc               12.50     +1.32
BRCM    Broadcom Corp              16.14     +1.41
MSCC    Microsemi Corp             10.64     +1.71
DOX     Amdocs Ltd                 13.35     +1.60

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PFCB    PF Chang's Bistro          35.00     +2.33
XLNX    Xilinx Inc                 25.50     +2.15
AMZN    Amazon.com                 24.42     +1.06
PNRA    Panera Bread               27.51     +1.74
FAST    Fastenal Company           29.44     +1.18
APOL    Apollo Group               48.01     +1.67
BBH     Biotech HOLDRS             90.67     +3.22
EAT     Brinker Intl.              29.35     +1.15

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CAH     Cardinal Health            52.60     -1.30
CLE     Claire's Stores            21.12     -2.43
CTSH    Cognizant Tech.            62.46     -3.28
CSC     Computer Sciences Corp     28.15     -1.09
ADP     Automatic Data Processing  27.25     -3.2008

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

OXM     Oxford Industries          23.40     -0.35




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