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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 03/14/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-14-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Stalemate
Play-of-the-Day:  Hanging Up On Telecom
Watch List:       BCM, CYMI, FLR, INTU, SNDK, and much more!
Market Sentiment: My, Aren't We Sensitive These Days?

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
       WE 3-14         WE 03-07        WE 02-28        WE 02-21
DOW     7859.71 +119.68 7740.03 -151.05 7891.08 -127.03 +109.31
Nasdaq  1340.33 + 35.04 1305.29 - 32.25 1337.54 - 11.48 + 38.85
S&P-100  424.07 +  3.95  420.12 -  5.24  425.36 -  4.51 +  7.30
S&P-500  833.27 +  4.38  828.89 - 12.26  841.15 -  7.02 + 13.28
W5000   7896.49 + 39.17 7857.32 -115.30 7972.62 - 63.35 +139.03
RUT      354.39 +   .21  354.18 -  6.34  360.52 -  3.84 +  5.86
TRAN    2027.09 - 15.39 2042.48 -  6.57 2049.05 - 47.36 -  6.19
VIX       36.33 +  0.68   35.65 +  1.50   34.15 +  0.01 -  2.96
VXN       45.80 -  0.59   46.39 +  0.74   45.65 -  0.45 -  2.28
TRIN       1.11            1.29            0.84            0.97
Put/Call   0.70            0.75            0.59            0.85
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Stalemate
by Jim Brown

The markets, UN and economy all ended with a stalemate on
Friday. The UN is equally divided and hopelessly deadlocked
on any new resolution and France called a late meeting of the
five permanent members of the Security Council on Friday. They
are trying to float a resolution banning the war but obviously
the US would take pleasure in a veto of that measure. The
economy showed mixed economics on Friday with minor gains
but Consumer Sentiment fell to a decade low and stalemated
that news. The markets rallied on top of the big Thursday
gains but the sellers were waiting at key resistance points
to provide a solid stop to the +500 point move. Stalemate all
around.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Wilshire 5000 - Daily


There was a flurry of economic reports on Friday with mixed
results. The PPI rose +1.0% but the gains were mostly due to
inflation from high oil prices. After stripping out energy
prices the core rate actually dropped -0.5%. This is good
news for the Fed and the consumer that overall inflation is
still under control. However, core crude goods are up +14.5%
compared to last year. Sounds like a contradiction of terms
but most of the difference is in the oil prices.

Industrial Production rose only +0.1% and the lack of growth
was attributed to lack of demand. With falling output it is
very hard to increase production. The fact that any increase
was seen should be encouraging. This little to no growth is
preferable to negative growth.

Business Inventories rose +0.2% but this was near the consensus
of +0.1% and was a non-event. Sales rose slightly to push the
inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.36 and off record lows. Once
demand does pick up the ramp into production to replenish
inventories will be strong. The only question is when?

The most important report on Friday was the Michigan Consumer
Sentiment which came in at 75.0 and a drop from 79.9 in
February. This was the lowest level since October 1992.
There is no good news in this release. Energy prices, war,
terror alerts, the stock market and unemployment were given
as reasons for the severe drop in sentiment. This drop is
shown in falling retail sales, auto sales and cooling home
sales despite record low mortgage rates. Pent up demand is
almost nonexistent and even a resolution of the war may not
increase spending. The expectations component fell to 67.2
and a nine year low. The sentiment is worse now than at
any time after the 9/11 attack. This report continues to
add to the prospect that a post war rally may be short and
small with attention returning to economic fundamentals
that are weakening on a daily basis.

As a result of the sagging sales and lack of demand GM and
Ford announced manufacturing cuts to avoid stacking up
unwanted inventory. Ford is cutting 2Q production -17% and
GM -10%. Since automakers book profits when the cars roll
off the assembly lines and not when they are sold the
prospects for hitting earnings targets are slim. With a
massive pension problem twice the size of the company GM
does not have room to slow down.

Schwab joined the list of companies, which have stopped
contributing to employee's 401Ks. They used to match 2:1
up to $5,000 a year and dollar for dollar over that. The
company dropped the benefit to try and cut costs instead
of cutting more employees. Ameritrade said today that
February trading volume dropped -25% and warned that
conditions could get worse. Between the two companies
they have over 10 million accounts and both are in serious
trouble. Some analysts are warning that there could be a
roll up in the online broker community that would leave
only a couple of survivors. The massive trade volumes
that built these companies during the Internet bubble
have dropped nearly 80% over the last three years. If
we are doomed to another 2-3 years of a protracted bottom
there is not sufficient investor interest in trading to
feed all the Internet brokers. Many analysts think the
majority of traders have gone bust or used the funds for
other purposes after losing ground for three years and
there will not be a material return of these investors
even if the market rebounded.

The biggest benefit from a quick war to the economy should
be the drop in oil prices. On Friday the prospect of the
end of the diplomatic dance at the UN brought a drop in
oil to an intraday low of $34. This is a far cry from the
$39.99 it reached a few weeks back. The high gas/energy
prices are a serious drain on not only consumer sentiment
but on everything we touch. Costs and prices are rising
daily as the previous high oil works its way through the
product life cycle. Knocking oil back down to $25 a bbl
would relieve hundreds of billions in excess costs out
of the economy over the next twelve months. In four of
the last five recessions high oil prices were a major
component. If oil does not drop soon it may be five of
the last six.

The cycle is complete again. In 2.5 days we have gone from
very oversold with a TRIN over 6.0 to overbought and a dead
stop at very strong resistance. Dow 7900/Nasdaq 1350
slammed shut like a vault door on Friday to put an end to
hopes for a pre-war, pre-Fed rally. The prospects for a
rate cut were dismissed almost unanimously as too little
too late and insignificant compared to the world events
currently shaping our markets. Disappointed investors
took profits when the Dow was up +110 points today, a
+515 point gain since the Wednesday low. There was little
or no short covering going into the close as most had
already been blown out during the rebound. The Nasdaq
top at 1350 had been very strong resistance for several
weeks and we could only manage +3 points over that level
at the height of optimism Friday. The Nasdaq finished
slightly negative.

The bullish case for Monday is a market view that the lack
of a material sell off after the Dow +515 point gain is
a positive sign of bullish sentiment that should produce
a follow on rally on Monday with no adverse news events
over the weekend. Personally I am surprised there was no
material sell off but I think that it is due more to the
potential for a positive surprise over the weekend versus
a negative surprise. Short of a terrorist attack or a
shooting down of a spy plane by North Korea there is not
much else that can happen. Any Osama event or Saddam
retirement, forced or otherwise, would be a major positive
and could produce a strong gap open. For a bull to pin
their hopes on a break of 7900/1350 resistance on a
potential positive surprise could be foolish.

The bearish case for Monday would be a reentry of the
shorts into the market. Those that closed positions for
a profit on Wed/Thr probably used good judgment on Friday
and stayed on the sidelines due to event risk over the
weekend. The risk to a short from an Osama/Saddam event
would be much higher than other negative events for a
long. The normal pattern for the last several weeks was
short covering on Friday and new shorting on Monday. That
pattern was thrown off by the severe drop and sharp
rebound this week. Monday is a new week and there should
be plenty of negative news over the weekend. President
Bush is meeting with Spain and Britain in the Azores
over the weekend and the bet is that he will discuss
the chances for a successful vote on Monday and without
a majority will pull the resolution, tell them to get
out of the way and go on TV Monday night with a declaration
of war. This unilateral decision regardless of Britain
and Spain along for the ride will not set well with the
Europe/Asian markets and they should know the outcome
on Sunday night. That means we could drop hard on Monday
if the timetable for war is accelerated from April 1st.
Remember the market discounts future events and once
the outcome of the Azores summit is known on Sunday
night it will be discounting quickly.

UN inspectors began leaving Iraq on Friday, which should
be a clue as to the coming timetable. France and Germany
warned all citizens to leave Iraq immediately. France
called an emergency meeting of the five permanent members
of the Security Council for Friday night at the French
Embassy to try and block the war. According to multiple
sources the battle readiness orders went out today to the
troops to begin actual staging for the attack.

I think the outlook is clear. The clock is about the
strike midnight on the UN diplomatic dance and all the
fence sitters lobbying for concessions and payoffs in
exchange for their vote will be left on the sidelines
when the show starts. Hopefully they will be left on the
sidelines when the contracts for reconstructing Iraq
begin also. The show is about to start and the
UN's role as the center stage in this drama will end.
All of this grandstanding will be over and the fear of
the unknown before it starts will impact the markets.

Iraq has moved artillery and rockets capable of shooting
chemical and biological shells into the massed soldiers
in Kuwait and are setting up their weapons. Obviously
they will be the first Iraqi positions sacrificed by
Saddam but the fear is that they will take a preemptive
strike at us once the US issues the 48hr warning. All of
these things are very negative to a fragile market.

I know as investors we have been preparing for this for
weeks, seemingly months, but the time has finally come.
With the temperature rising in Iraq and every day waiting
is another day Saddam has to prepare the odds are the
April 1st date proposed this week may be too late.
B1 stealth bombers flew combat missions over Iraq for
the first time on Friday and dropped significantly larger
loads of bombs on targets than ever before in the pre-war.
If Saddam decides the noose is closing he may try to shoot
back at the Kuwait staging areas and that could be any day.
If he knows we are coming and he is going to lose anyway
then he has nothing to lose by starting the war. The fact
that we could be a war on Tuesday will not be lost on the
market on Monday. Of course as we have seen on a daily
basis lately the situation can and does change daily.
As investors we need to be aware of the options and be
prepared for either market direction.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
((new non-tech play))

AT&T - T - close: 16.18 change: -0.14 stop: *text*

Company Description:
AT&T is among the premier voice, video and data communications
companies in the world, serving businesses, consumers, and
government. The company runs the largest, most sophisticated
communications network in the U.S., backed by the research and
development capabilities of AT&T Labs. A leading supplier of
data, Internet and managed services for the public and private
sectors, AT&T offers outsourcing and consulting to large
businesses and government. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Ma Bell has seen better days.  Shareholders of AT&T endured a
three-year downtrend in the company's stock that resulted from
the collapse of the telecom industry.  Topping out near $90.00 in
2000, the declining stock market, Worldcom bankruptcy, downfall
of Qwest, and slowing industry demand, all conspired to push T
down to the $17.00 area by July of 2002.  In the months that
followed the stock staged a respectable recovery rally and
managed to claw its way back to the $25.00-$30.00 region.  During
this time period the company spun off its AT&T Broadband division
to Comcast.  T underwent a reverse stock split in order to keep
the Dow Component at reasonably high price levels after the spin-
off subtracted from the company's value.  Shares continued to
meander under the $30.00 level until January 23rd, when AT&T
dropped a bombshell on Wall Street with its Q4 earnings
announcement.  The company issued an earnings warning for the
first quarter and that it expected a protracted decline in sales
throughout 2003.  BLS underscored the industry-wide weakness on
the same day, announcing a steep reduction in its quarterly
profit.  There are myriad reasons for the revenue shortfalls that
have plagued T.  The most obvious obstacle facing telecom
investors is the fact that no less than six companies (AT&T,
Sprint, Worldcom, Verizon, BellSouth, and SBC Communications) are
all duking it out for a piece of the long-distance market.  To
make matters worse for AT&T, consumers are increasingly opting to
use wireless phones instead of land-based lines when making long
distance calls.  With competition only growing more fierce (the
Baby Bells are expected to challenge AT&T in every state by the
end of this year), it's easy to see why investors have hung up on
the company's stock.

This past week witnessed a very poor performance by T that could
portend a continued decline.  On Monday the stock broke through
support at $18.00 and took out last year's low.  This put shares
at levels not seen since the mid-1980's.  The powerful market
rally lifted T on Wednesday and Thursday, but those gains proved
to be short-lived.  Shares have been trending steadily lower from
the Thursday morning highs and now look poised to move under the
relative low of $15.75.  We will enter this paper trade if/when
the stock moves under that level.  However, we will NOT activate
the play if for some reason T gaps below $15.50.  Our downside
objective will be a 20% move to the $12.50 region.  $12.50 also
happens to be an option strike price.  Stocks will sometimes
gravitate towards nearby strikes as options expiration
approaches.  March options expire next Friday.  Of course, the
closest strike price is $15.00, which also the location of
psychological support.  We're anticipating that shares will not
get more than a small bounce from that level.  In terms of risk
management, we'll use a stop at $17.16 if this play is triggered.
This will set up a risk/reward ratio of roughly 1:2 and also
force T to trade above February's lows, which should now provide
some resistance.  More aggressive traders could use a stop
slightly above the 21-dma at $17.75.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/24/03 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Canadian Imperial Bank - BCM - close: 31.91 change: +0.38

WHAT TO WATCH: We've noticed a strong trend in all the Canadian
banking stocks.  Most of them are trading higher.  Whether this
is due to the growing conflict between US and Iraq and foreign
investors pulling the money out of the US and into seemingly
safer countries like Canada is speculation.  On the other hand it
could be that these Canadian banks are just out performing their
U.S. counterparts on the earnings front.  Most of these Canadian
bank stocks either move too slow or don't really have enough
volume to make it an appropriate to trade.  BCM might be the
exception despite its low trading volume.  The stock rallied
significantly higher on a strong earnings announcement late last
month.  Shares have been able to maintain their gains and now
look ready for another sprint higher.  We would watch this one
for a move over the $32 mark, which has been a lid on the stock
all month.  An upside target, depending on your outlook could be
anywhere from $35 to $37.00.




---

Cephalon Inc. - CEPH - close: 44.10 change: -1.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Cephalon is one of the weaker-looking biotech
stocks.  Shares have been marching lower for nearly a month.
This week the stock tagged a new relative low of $42.66 after
support at $45.00 was violated.  CEPH was given a boost by the
strong market rally on Thursday, but this only gave the bears
another chance to pile on at the descending trendline (most
easily visible on the 60-minute chart).  A continuation of the
recent downtrend could result in a test of the next level of
underlying support in the $39-$40 region.  Aggressive traders can
watch for either a breakdown below $44.00 or another failed rally
near $45.50 to present a shorting opportunity.




---

Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 25.17 change: -1.03

WHAT TO WATCH: The SOX.X semiconductor index exploded above all
of its short-term resistance levels on Thursday.  The bulls will
now be challenged by the descending 200-dma at 317.  Should the
NASDAQ roll over from its own overhead resistance at 1350, the
SOX.X could quickly retrace its recent gains.  That would not be
good news for shareholders of Cymer.  The stock managed a paltry
1.7% gain on Thursday while the rest of its chip brethren were
exploding higher.  The stock was pressured by Wednesday's
announcement that the company is expecting first-quarter revenue
to come in "at the low end" of its previous forecast.  With the
bullish NASDAQ momentum fading today, CYMI fell by nearly 4% on
its highest volume of the year.  The stock is currently in the
process of retracing its October/November rebound from the $17.00
region, with no bar chart support until $20.00.  The point-and-
figure chart, however, shows bullish support at $24.00.  Watch
for a move under that level to offer a potential action point.




---

Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 32.11 change: +0.62

WHAT TO WATCH: The increasing likelihood of "regime change" in
Iraq has been a boon for shareholders of FLR.  Earlier this week
the U.S. government sent invitations to several engineering
companies, including Flour, to submit bids for reconstruction
contracts in Iraq.  Of course this is all highly speculative at
the moment - the war hasn't even started yet, and nobody knows
when the reconstruction will begin and how much it might cost.
But the market is a forward-looking mechanism, and investors have
responded enthusiastically to the prospect of a new revenue
source for the company.  This positive reaction has pushed FLR
above resistance at $30.00, right up to the bearish p-n-f trend
at $33.00.  The bar chart shows additional resistance at $34.00.
In light of these overhead obstacles, we think the optimal entry
point for long positions would be to wait for a pullback to and
rebound from the $30.00 level.  Technical bulls will be pleased
with the rising volume and uptrending daily stochastics (5,3,3).




---

Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 5.89 change: +0.19

WHAT TO WATCH: Corning is gone from our Play List, but certainly
not forgotten.  We bid GLW a fond adieu on Monday after the stock
spiked up to our profit-target.  Shares pulled back to a low of
$5.33 on Wednesday before being lifted by the steep NASDAQ rally.
Another 3.3% was added on Friday after UBS Warburg upgraded the
stock from "Neutral" to "Buy," citing a growing liquid crystal
display (LCD) business and stabilizing market fundamentals in the
fiber-optic industry.  UBS also raised their 2003 and 2004
estimates for Corning.  The resulting bullishness propelled GLW
above $6.00, to new multi-month highs.  These gains were backed
by the second-highest volume reading of the year, which bodes
well for a continued ascent.  There is no major historical
resistance until the $7.00 region.  This would be a reasonable
short-term profit target for aggressive traders, who could target
bullish entries on a move above today's high of $6.06.




---

Intuit Inc. - INTU - close: 49.90 change: +0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Software company Intuit may be on everyone's mind
due to the season and its TurboTax software.  Shares have
performed very well since hitting deep relative lows near $40
around the first of February.  The buying pattern seems to be a
stair step approach.  INTU trades sideways for a week or two in a
$2.00 range and then breaks out to trade sideways in the next
$2.00 range.  This pattern could continue and thus we'd expect
INTU to trade sideways between $48.00 and $50 for the next
several sessions or bulls might be able to get a breakout above
the $50 mark.  Depending on your trading style you could day-
trade the potential range... buying at $48 and selling at $50.00
or you could try and position trade.  One suggestion would be to
buy at $48 with a relatively tight stop and just wait for the
move over $50.00.  Our upside target would be the $55 region
should the stock actually breakout.




---

JDS Uniphase - JDSU - close: 2.92 change: +0.01

WHAT TO WATCH: Trading at $2.92, JDSU is a mere shadow of its
former self.  However, this fallen angel of the tech sector still
might be worth playing for aggressive short-term bulls.  Shares
have spent most of 2003 trading sideways between $2.50 and $3.00.
A breakout though resistance (using a move above the February
high of $3.05 to provide upside confirmation) would potentially
clear the way for a rally up to the $3.50 level.  In recent news,
JDS reiterated its break-even 2003 quarterly sales target on
Tuesday.




---

SanDisk - SNDK - close: 19.11 change: +0.60

WHAT TO WATCH: Computer storage devices has not been the hottest
sector lately but we're enticed by the big breakout in shares of
SNDK recently.  The stock had been consolidating and building a
nice bottom along support at $15.00 for weeks.  Upside resistance
had been between the 200-dma and the $18.00 level.  Thursday's
massive rally shot the stock through the $18 mark and the short
covering followed through today before shares failed at the next
logical overhead resistance of $20.00.  We think aggressive bulls
could keep SNDK on their watch list for a pull back to the $18.00
level.  Look for a bounce at $18.00 as a potential entry point to
go long.  First target would be $20.00.  Second target would be
$22.50.  Volume on the last three days has been pretty strong.
It probably wouldn't hurt to check the news.




------------
RADAR SCREEN
------------

WFC - Wells Fargo is sitting at the top of its three-month
descending regression channel.  Additional resistance lurks
overhead at the 50-dma.  The point-and-figure chart is looking
very bearish, with WFC recently breaking bullish support and
triggering a double-bottom sell signal.  Short-term traders could
target a move back to the bottom of the channel near $43.00.

NKE - We've already got a shoe manufacturer on our Play List
(TBL), but NKE is looking pretty strong on its own merits.
Shares have shown excellent relative strength versus the broader
market and are now trading at long-term highs.  A move above
psychological resistance at $50.00 would set the stage for a
possible  rally to the 2002 highs at $58.00.  There's some
additional overhead resistance at the late-July highs near
$51.25.

EMC - The daily chart for EMC is quite intriguing.  The stock
recently rebounded from its converging 100-dma and 200-dma, and
is currently sitting just below the converging 21-dma and 50-dma.
If those moving averages are dispatched the bulls may have a
clear shot at the February highs near $8.50.  Watch for a move
above today's high ($7.55) to confirm a breakout.

MGG - MGG responded nicely to the Wednesday-Friday market rally
and plowed through its 50-dma at $26.81.  Bulls will be pleased
with the way shares have emerged from the multi-week $24-$27
consolidation range.  The daily chart shows a large gap extending
up to $32, with possible overhead resistance at $29.00 (near the
bottom of the gap) and $30.00.

ZMH - Zimmer makes orthopedic implants such as replacement knee,
shoulder, and hip joints.  The company's stock caught a bid today
after they said that first-quarter EPS results would be 4-5 cents
higher than analyst estimates.  Investors reacted by gapping ZMH
higher and pushing it above resistance at $45.00-$45.50 on the
strongest volume of the year.  That's a solid breakout, but we'd
be hesitant to chase the stock higher.  Instead, watch for a
pullback to the $45.00 to yield a potential entry point.

UOPX - Those with a speculative strategy could consider shorting
this adult education stock at current levels.  Stop placement is
fairly straightforward, because UOPX has solid resistance at
$40.00.  Another rollover from this level could drag shares down
to the rising 50-dma at $36.49.


================
Market Sentiment
================

My, Aren't We Sensitive These Days?
by Steven Price

We got yet another snapshot of current market sensitivity to geo-
political concerns with the early trading action on Friday. We
started the day with a number of economic reports that took the
shine off some big overnight gains in the futures, but still led
us higher to begin the day. That economic data was simply window
dressing ahead of a press conference from President Bush that was
scheduled for 10 a.m.  Of course that press conference also
coincided with another piece of economic data, complicating
matters for traders looking for the development of a trend.

That piece of data, the preliminary University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment reading for March, came in at its lowest level
in more than ten years, falling to 75.0 from a reading of 79.9 in
February. That was worse than expectations for a drop to 76.7 and
started the markets rolling downhill. The Dow reversed all the
way to a test of 7800, trading as low as 7799 just before the
president started talking.  I'll get back to the contents of the
index in a moment.

Then came the press conference.  Guess what?  No talk about Iraq,
just about a new "roadmap for peace" in the Middle East,
concerning Israel and the creation of a Palestinian state.  After
the conference, the markets cruised higher, building on the huge
reversal from Wednesday's lows and making a run back over Dow
7900 to a high of 7931.  It was a reversal of 130 points on NO
NEWS!  That shows us just how much negativity is built on a
possible U.S. invasion, or at least an invasion without the
support of the U.N.  Just the fact that the President took a
break from talking about Saddam was seen as bullish by traders
expecting an announcement of impending action.

Back to Consumer Sentiment.  The internals of the report showed a
drop in the current conditions index from 95.4 to 87.1 and a drop
in the expectations index from 69.9 to 67.2.  For anyone
wondering just how much war fears are contributing to the poor
retail sales data we received on Wednesday, a third of consumers
mentioned the war and possibility of domestic terrorism as a
major factor in their caution on the economy. The head of the U
of M's consumer research program said, "Even after a quick and
decisive victory, consumer spending will remain subdued through
the balance of 2003."  Fewer consumers also expect to buy durable
goods (high ticket items) in the next six months than at any time
in the past ten years.  While we have had a nice rally in the
past couple of days, it doesn't appear that we should see an
increase in spending from the consumer side at least until the
international situation is resolved and maybe not even afterward
for quite some time. It seems unlikely that the prospect of war
is preventing the average shopper from buying furniture or
appliances and an increase in consumer spending will likely hinge
on businesses' decisions to start spending and hiring once again.

The producer price index rose once again in February, mostly due
to higher fuel prices. The core rate, which excludes food and
energy, actually fell 0.5%. War fears figure into this number
directly, as oil continued to climb throughout last month.  We
have seen some relief in those prices over the past couple of
days, which is reflected in the April crude oil futures.  The
difficulty the U.S. is having building a coalition has pushed the
beginning of a possible invasion back, which has had a calming
effect on the price of futures.  Saudi Arabia has also committed
to higher output in case of war and the Bush administration has
indicated it might release oil from the national reserves. All of
this has dropped the April contract from a high of $40.00per
barrel on February 27, to a current reading just over $35.
Following this morning's Bush speech, it dipped as low as $33.80.
The drop in prices should help producer prices in March, unless
we launch an invasion, at which point we can expect an initial
spike, likely above the recent high at $40.

The big rally that followed the Bush speech eventually found
sellers and reversed the gain back into the red after the initial
euphoria wore off.  Considering Bush is meeting with leaders from
Spain and Britain over the weekend, it is likely they are
outlining a plan to go into Iraq without U.N. support.  When
combined with the disappointing Sentiment data, the bulls that
had pushed the market higher over the past couple of days
eventually took some profits.

The other factor that played a role in the rally of the past
couple days was a massive asset allocation from bonds back into
stocks and that allocation appears to have run its course for the
time being.  Even during the post-speech rally, bond yields
lagged the market, with the 5-yr and 10-yr yield turning green
briefly only at the top of the rally as the Dow traded over 7900,
before sinking back into the red once again (indicating buyers
switching back into bonds, driving yields lower).  By the end of
the day, the five, ten and thirty year yields were all negative,
showing a shift back into treasuries after a sell-off in those
instruments coincided with the move back into stocks over the
past couple of days. That inflow of cash back into the bond
market came in spite of small gains in the broader indices and a
flat day for the Nasdaq. The move is a bearish signal for
equities, but following a much larger move in the opposite
direction since Wednesday morning, it is hard to tell if things
were just settling down ahead of the weekend with positions being
taken in, or if it was truly a signal that the equity rally had
run out of steam and we are ready to reverse back down.  With the
weekend summit, it is likely that much of the afternoon churning
in both markets came from traders tightening up positions ahead
of whatever announcements come after the meeting.

The Dow, OEX and SPX all posted small gains and the Nasdaq was
pretty much flat by the end of the day.  However, the most
significant technical level that was tested was Nasdaq 1350.
The Nasdaq rallied to 1353 numerous times throughout the end of
February and beginning of March without breaking thorough,
eventually falling to a new relative low last week of 1253.
Today's high was 1352.84, indicating we are still seeing sellers
at that level.  Traders can watch that index for signs of true
bullishness and shorts from these levels may want to leave stops
around 1360, as it would indicate a significant breakthrough and
a possible run at 1400. In the Dow, although we stalled at 7900,
the more significant resistance levels lie at 8000, 8050 and
8160.  If those are broken, look out above.  If we begin to fail
at those levels, they may be good short entries for traders
looking to pick a top, particularly if they coincide with 1350
resistance in the COMP.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  7860

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7706
 50-dma: 8115
200-dma: 8488

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  833

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  822
 50-dma:  859
200-dma:  897

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1030

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  989
 50-dma: 1007
200-dma:  996
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX):  The chip stocks finally pulled
back today, with the SOX losing 1.7% on the day.  While it
underperformed the Nasdaq, remember it gained 8% on Thursday and
broke into new territory above 300. The closing high at 310 on
Thursday was a significant resistance level from late December
and today's closing pullback indicated that although we traded as
high as 313.56, a close above 310 is still going to be tough.
Even tougher yet might be the descending 200-dma, which now sits
at 317.74 and has not been crossed since May 2002.  If we do
manage to break that 200-dma, look for a run to 330 as the next
test of resistance.  While we did see a pullback, remember the
chip stocks have been strong and have given back very little of
their gains and are at their highest levels since mid-January.
We have actually closed our SLAB call play for a profit, as it
has run into resistance and will likely wait for a test of the
200-dma before going long in the sector with so many of the
stocks near resistance.

52-week High: 393
52-week Low : 214
Current:      305

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 288
 50-dma: 292
 200-dma: 317
-----------------------------------------------------------------

That 34-35% support level held firm in the VIX on Friday.  In
fact, even on the morning rally of 130 Dow points, the VIX
dropped less than 0.60 and bounced off the 200-dma of 35.40,
which also now crowds the support area that has signaled
pullbacks in the equity market on each test since the end of
January.  That low of 35.27 coincided with today's top and
traders watching the VIX test 35% could have used it as an
indicator to short the rally for at least a brief drop. If we do
get a continuation rally which drops the VIX below 34% on a
closing basis, look for the next support in the 29-30% range to
signal another equity pullback.  Beyond that is the recent
extreme of 26% from the Nov-Dec and mid-Jan equity highs.  If we
manage to reach that level, bulls should be tightening stops
dramatically because the music is likely to end there.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 36.33 +0.40
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 45.80 +0.82
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.70        651,503       456,495
Equity Only    0.58        478,164       276,805
OEX            1.07         30,260        32,286
QQQ            0.87         89,349        77,518
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          35.6    - 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    34.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   10.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       28.6    - 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       23.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  2.01
10-Day Arms Index  1.82
21-Day Arms Index  1.43
55-Day Arms Index  1.38

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1585           1249
NASDAQ     1454           1569

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        62               66
NASDAQ      48               64

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,817
NASDAQ     1,585
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/11/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added to both sides of the equation, with an
additional 14,000 long contracts and 13,000 shorts.  Small
traders mirrored that activity, adding 5,000 longs and 4,000
shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/18/03      423,871   481,871   (58,000)   (6.4%)
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)
03/04/03      426,053   472,492   (46,439)   (5.2%)
03/11/03      440,688   485,938   (45,250)   (4.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03      155,475    91,102    64,373     26.1%
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%
03/04/03      164,759    98,636    66,123     25.1%
03/11/03      169,450   102,631    66,819     24.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials added almost equally to both sides with 3,700 long
contracts and 3,000 shorts. The slightly higher addition to the
long side was similar to the activity in the S&P.  Small traders
got longer as well, with 3,000 additional long contracts and
1,600 additional shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       38,486     50,501   (12,015) (13.5%)
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)
03/04/03       39,934     52,978   (13,044) (14.0%)
03/11/03       43,641     56,020   (12,379) (12.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       25,482     9,425    16,057    46.0%
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%
03/04/03       24,240     8,038    16,202    50.2%
03/11/03       27,196     9,674    17,522    47.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials broke ranks in the Dow, adding 1,600 short contracts
and only 400 longs.  Small traders added 300 long contracts and
reduced shorts by about the same amount.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       18,812    11,939    6,873      22.4%
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%
03/04/03       21,326    12,724    8,602      25.3%
03/11/03       21,726    14,370    7,356      20.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/18/03        5,561     8,973    (3,412)   (23.5%)
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%)
03/04/03        5,233     8,075    (2,842)   (21.4%)
03/11/03        5,549     7,727    (2,178)   (16.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-14-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates:  INFY

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     T
  Bullish Play Updates:  TBL, TOO
  Bearish Play Updates:  S, UHS
  Closed Bearish Plays:  MWD

High Risk/Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  CTAC
  Closed Bullish Plays:  AMGN


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Infosys Technologies - INFY - cls: 58.52 chg: -0.15 stop: 60.01

Our bearish play in INFY is alive to see another day.  Once again
the geo-political drama helped keep traders on edge and the bulls
were unable to follow through on Thursday's rally into the
weekend.  Shares of INFY rallied right up to overhead resistance
and stalled!  We noticed the exact same performance in shares of
MSFT and the GSO.X software index.  If there is any weakness on
Monday, the downward trend should continue for INFY and this
would appear to be an attractive entry point for new shorts.
Aggressive short-term traders can aim for an exit near $55.
We're continuing to aim for the $51 area.  Now that the US Dollar
has made such an impressive rally in recent sessions, it too
should be due for some "profit taking" so to speak and this could
also accelerate any declines in INFY.

Picked on March 5th at $59.49
Results since picked:   -0.03
Earnings Date        04/11/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

AT&T - T - close: 16.18 change: -0.14 stop: *text*

Company Description:
AT&T is among the premier voice, video and data communications
companies in the world, serving businesses, consumers, and
government. The company runs the largest, most sophisticated
communications network in the U.S., backed by the research and
development capabilities of AT&T Labs. A leading supplier of
data, Internet and managed services for the public and private
sectors, AT&T offers outsourcing and consulting to large
businesses and government. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Ma Bell has seen better days.  Shareholders of AT&T endured a
three-year downtrend in the company's stock that resulted from
the collapse of the telecom industry.  Topping out near $90.00 in
2000, the declining stock market, Worldcom bankruptcy, downfall
of Qwest, and slowing industry demand, all conspired to push T
down to the $17.00 area by July of 2002.  In the months that
followed the stock staged a respectable recovery rally and
managed to claw its way back to the $25.00-$30.00 region.  During
this time period the company spun off its AT&T Broadband division
to Comcast.  T underwent a reverse stock split in order to keep
the Dow Component at reasonably high price levels after the spin-
off subtracted from the company's value.  Shares continued to
meander under the $30.00 level until January 23rd, when AT&T
dropped a bombshell on Wall Street with its Q4 earnings
announcement.  The company issued an earnings warning for the
first quarter and that it expected a protracted decline in sales
throughout 2003.  BLS underscored the industry-wide weakness on
the same day, announcing a steep reduction in its quarterly
profit.  There are myriad reasons for the revenue shortfalls that
have plagued T.  The most obvious obstacle facing telecom
investors is the fact that no less than six companies (AT&T,
Sprint, Worldcom, Verizon, BellSouth, and SBC Communications) are
all duking it out for a piece of the long-distance market.  To
make matters worse for AT&T, consumers are increasingly opting to
use wireless phones instead of land-based lines when making long
distance calls.  With competition only growing more fierce (the
Baby Bells are expected to challenge AT&T in every state by the
end of this year), it's easy to see why investors have hung up on
the company's stock.

This past week witnessed a very poor performance by T that could
portend a continued decline.  On Monday the stock broke through
support at $18.00 and took out last year's low.  This put shares
at levels not seen since the mid-1980's.  The powerful market
rally lifted T on Wednesday and Thursday, but those gains proved
to be short-lived.  Shares have been trending steadily lower from
the Thursday morning highs and now look poised to move under the
relative low of $15.75.  We will enter this paper trade if/when
the stock moves under that level.  However, we will NOT activate
the play if for some reason T gaps below $15.50.  Our downside
objective will be a 20% move to the $12.50 region.  $12.50 also
happens to be an option strike price.  Stocks will sometimes
gravitate towards nearby strikes as options expiration
approaches.  March options expire next Friday.  Of course, the
closest strike price is $15.00, which also the location of
psychological support.  We're anticipating that shares will not
get more than a small bounce from that level.  In terms of risk
management, we'll use a stop at $17.16 if this play is triggered.
This will set up a risk/reward ratio of roughly 1:2 and also
force T to trade above February's lows, which should now provide
some resistance.  More aggressive traders could use a stop
slightly above the 21-dma at $17.75.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/24/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Timberland Co. - TBL - close: 40.99 change: +0.30 stop: 38.74

Our new bullish play did a decent job in out performing both the
Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P Retail Index (RLX).  While a
30-cent gain isn't much to write home about it's still a positive
day.  Those traders who were looking for a dip to the $40 level
probably got that opportunity early on when shares dripped to
40.11 before hitting new relative highs.  Now that Premier
Investor has been hypothetically triggered into this play when
TBL traded at 40.81, our stop loss is at 38.74.  We are going to
attempt to monitor this stop loss carefully.  TBL, while
displaying incredible relative strength the last several weeks is
looking a little overbought and due for a pull back.
Fortunately, with the significant breakout over $40 on Thursday,
the shorts could be scared into covering and accelerate the
stock's rise to our target area in the $45 region.

Picked on March 14th at $40.81
Results since picked:    +0.18
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)




---

TOO Inc - TOO - close: 16.20 change: +0.42 stop: 14.49

TOO has been another retail winner in the recent market
bullishness.  Shares had been oscillating sideways above support
at $14.50 for days until Thursday's massive rally had the shorts
scrambling for cover.  The stock added 7.6% on the session and
closed at its highs.  Unlike the rest of the market the rally
continued on Friday for TOO.  Shares added yet another 2.6% and
traded to 16.45 before failing at the stock's descending 50-dma
(16.50).  This is very encouraging for the bulls and we certainly
expect the bullishness to continue for TOO, however, shares are
up more than 10% in two days and probably due for a pullback of
some type.  This is probably not the best entry point for new
bullish positions.  Bulls should look for a pull back and we'll
be looking at the $15.50-15.75 region as the likely spot for a
bounce.  Short-term traders who took positions near $14.60 are in
great shape and honestly it wouldn't hurt to consider taking some
profits off the table.  There is always an opportunity to re-
enter on a dip.  We're going to leave our stop at 14.49 for the
moment.

Picked on February 27th at $15.66
Gain since picked:          +0.54
Earnings Date            02/19/03 (confirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sears Roebuck - S - close: 18.50 change: -0.12 stop: 20.62 *new*

Sears' blatant display of relative weakness on Thursday had us
anticipating a move to fresh multi-year lows during today's
session.  The stock opened somewhat flat and traded in a narrow
range until 12:00 eastern, when the bears began responding to
some slight weakness in the RLX.X retail index.  S proceeded to
trade to a new low of $18.30, which was repeatedly tested during
the final hour of trading.  Last-minute buying before the closing
bell prevented a more severe breakdown.  Looking at a 15-minute
chart, we see that overhead resistance is located at $19.50 and
$20.00.  A rollover from either one of these levels might provide
a shorting opportunity.  But considering the steady long-term
downtrend and the stock's failure to rally with the Dow Jones,
we're not expecting any large gains next week.  With no
underlying support, bearish entries could also be evaluated on a
move under today's low.  Our stop-loss is now located at $20.62,
one cent above the descending 21-dma.

Picked on March 6th at 19.30
Results since picked   +0.80
Earnings Date       04/17/03 (unconfirmed)




---

Universal Health - UHS - cls: 37.23 chg: -0.39 stop: 39.06

No follow-through here!  UHS joined the broader market in a
rebound from its relative lows, but the orderly and gradual
nature of those gains were a sign that the stock hadn't yet put
in a short-term bottom.  The major indexes were moving higher in
a much more rapid fashion.  Although shares did manage to
continue higher on Friday morning, the upward momentum failed
once UHS reached its descending 21-dma ($38.15).  It was all
downhill from there, as the stock retraced its early-session
gains and finished with a loss of 1.0%.  One of the factors that
helped the bears today was a steady downtrend in the HMO.X health
provider index, which gave back a full 2.0% after failing to move
above its 50-dma.  This moving average roughly coincides with
resistance at 500.  A daily chart of the index shows support in
the 475-480 region.  Meanwhile, UHS has less substantial support
at $36.00 and Wednesday's low of $36.40.  Most traders thinking
about taking new short positions will probably want to wait for a
breakdown through those levels, while those with a more
speculative approach could target bearish entries on another
failed rally near the 21-dma.  Conservative traders can consider
a stop just above today's high of $38.38.

Picked on March 6th at 37.98
Results since picked   +0.36
Earnings Date       02/13/03 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Morgan Stanley - MWD - close: 35.88 change: -0.20 stop: 36.49

Timing really is everything.  MWD looked extremely weak on
Wednesday when it traded to a new multi-month low.  But as most
seasoned traders will tell you, the majority of a stock's
movement is usually dictated by the broader market.  With the Dow
rallying for a monstrous 515-point gain from Wednesday's low to
today's high, bears in the financial sector (and most other
groups) suddenly became an endangered species.  MWD rocketed off
the $32.50 region and posted a 7.4% gain during yesterday's
session.  Continued upward momentum this morning led to a
violation of our stop $36.49.  Our play was closed for a loss of
$2.30, or 6.7%.  Traders who elected to take a little more heat
were eventually rewarded with an intraday reversal that took
shares back into negative territory.  Those who are still short
will now be watching for MWD to hold under today's high ($36.80)
while making its way back towards the $34.00 area.  Morgan
announces earnings before the bell on Thursday, so conservative
traders might want to consider using any intraday weakness as a
chance to leg out of bearish positions.  We would not advise
holding MWD over earnings.

Picked on March 12th at $34.19
Results since picked:    -2.30
Earnings Date         04/20/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

1-800 Contacts - CTAC - cls: 19.21 chg: -0.08 stop: 20.01

We knew that CTAC had a history of trading on relatively light
volume, but this is just ridiculous!  On Friday the stock only
traded 4,500 shares.  As near as we can tell that's the lowest
volume reading in several years.  This has made it very difficult
to get a bearing on where CTAC might be headed.  The stock
continues to languish under Monday's high and doesn't seem to be
able to attract many buyers...and we mean that in the most
literal sense.  Similar trading next week will probably send CTAC
to the dropped play list.  Ideally, what we'd like to see is a
move under short-term support at $18.50, accompanied by a rise in
volume.  Conservative traders might want to consider heading for
the exits if shares rebound from that level again.  We've
modified our own exit strategy and will now exit this paper trade
if CTAC trades at or below $17.06.  We are not advising new short
positions at this time.

Picked on February 20th at $18.80
Results since picked:       -0.41
Earnings Date            02/18/03 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 57.64 change: +0.64 stop: 53.98

Wow!  There's certainly no denying the technical strength of
AMGN.  This trading week was capped off with a 1.1% gain that
propelled the stock to new long-term highs.  Shares may have
benefited from news out of fellow biotech company Genentech
(DNA), who announced an upside earnings warning on Friday.
Although the BTK.X biotech index showed no response to the
bullish guidance, Amgen has been outperforming the sector for
quite some time and at this point it doesn't take much to
convince perspective buyers.  On the daily chart, we see some
very interesting developments.  The past two days of gains have
lifted AMGN above the top of the regression channel that has
dictated price action since late-December.  This could certainly
be considered a positive sign for the bulls, and an indication
that shares might be headed for psychological resistance at
$60.00.  However, there's also the possibility that shares could
revert to the recent trading pattern and pull back to retest the
long-term ascending trendline near $54.50.  Chances of some
consolidation would greatly increase if the NASDAQ begins to roll
over from resistance at 1350.  So rather than maintain our
hypothetical long position in hopes of an eventual rally to the
$60.00 region, we've elected to close out the play at current
levels for a gain of 9.7%.  Those who have more confidence in the
current breakout could maintain bullish positions with a tight
stop slightly under today's low of $56.65.  Traders with a
longer-term perspective will probably want to use a stop below
the rising 21-dma at $54.34.

Picked on February 14th at $52.51
Results since picked:       +5.13
Earnings Date            04/24/03 (unconfirmed)







=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 03-14-2003
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of March 17th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==========================================
Market Watch for the week of March 17th
==========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

DG     Dollar General Corp.  Mon, Mar 17  Before the Bell     0.31
TECD   Tech Data Corporation Mon, Mar 17  After the bell      0.55
SVM    The ServiceMaster Co  Mon, Mar 17  -----N/A-----       0.09


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BTH    Blyth Inc.            Tue, Mar 18  Before the Bell     0.57
CLL    Celltech Group PLC    Tue, Mar 18  -----N/A-----        N/A
KKD    Krispy Kreme Doughnut Tue, Mar 18  Before the Bell     0.18
ORCL   Oracle                Tue, Mar 18  After the bell      0.10
WSM    Williams-Sonoma       Tue, Mar 18  During the Market   0.66
WOS    Wolseley              Tue, Mar 18  -----N/A-----        N/A


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

CMVT   Comverse Technology   Wed, Mar 12  After the Bell     -0.11
COMS   3Com                  Wed, Mar 19  After the bell     -0.06
ABS    Albertson's           Wed, Mar 19  -----N/A-----       0.52
AAA    Altana AG             Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell      N/A
BSC    Bear Stearns          Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell     1.35
BMET   Biomet, Inc.          Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell     0.28
FDO    Family Dollar         Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell     0.42
FDX    FedEx                 Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell     0.50
GIS    General Mills, Inc.   Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell     0.66
MLHR   Herman Miller         Wed, Mar 19  After the bell      0.04
JBL    Jabil                 Wed, Mar 19  After the bell      0.16
LEN    Lennar Corporation    Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell     1.41
NKE    Nike                  Wed, Mar 19  -----N/A-----       0.46
ROST   Ross Stores, Inc.     Wed, Mar 19  Before the Bell     0.74
WOR    Worthington Ind       Wed, Mar 19  -----N/A-----       0.21


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AZ     Allianz AG            Thu, Mar 20  -----N/A-----        N/A
BKS    Barnes&Noble          Thu, Mar 20  Before the Bell     1.47
CTAS   Cintas Corporation    Thu, Mar 20  Before the Bell     0.34
GS     Goldman Sachs         Thu, Mar 20  Before the Bell     0.96
LEH    Lehman Brothers       Thu, Mar 20  Before the Bell     0.99
MU     Micron Technology     Thu, Mar 20  After the bell     -0.44
MWD    Morgan Stanley        Thu, Mar 20  Before the Bell     0.62
PAYX   Paychex               Thu, Mar 20  After the bell      0.19
PCW    PCCW LTD              Thu, Mar 20  -----N/A-----        N/A
SLR    Solectron             Thu, Mar 20  After the bell     -0.01
TEK    Tektronix Inc.        Thu, Mar 20  After the bell      0.08


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

ATYT  ATI Technologies       Fri, Mar 21  -----N/A-----       0.02
CCL  Carnival Corporation    Fri, Mar 21  Before the Bell     0.18
CEP  Centerpulse AG          Fri, Mar 21  Before the Bell      N/A
DRI  Darden Restaurants      Fri, Mar 21  -----N/A-----       0.35


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

FFLC    FFLC Bancorp, Inc.        3:2      Mar. 14th   Mar. 17th
LNBB    LNB Bancorp, Inc.         3:2      Mar. 14th   Mar. 17th
BRL     Barr Labs                 3:2      Mar. 17th   Mar. 18th
NARA    Nara Bancorp              2:1      Mar. 17th   Mar. 18th
XTO     XTO Energy                4:3      Mar. 18th   Mar. 19th
ANPI    Angiotech Pharm           2:1      Mar. 21st   Mar. 13th
PSS     Payless Shoe              3:1      Mar. 28th   Mar. 28th

--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The timetable for war is growing short and Wall Street isn't
sure how to handle it anymore.  Market watchers will be waiting
to hear from the FOMC on a possible rate cut and Friday brings
the CPI report.  Don't look now but earnings warnings season
is almost here!

==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 03/17/02
----------------
None


Tuesday, 03/18/02
-----------------
Housing Starts (BB)     Feb  Forecast: 1.755M  Previous:   1.580M
Building Permits (BB)   Feb  Forecast: 1.745M  Previous:   1.779M
FOMC Meeting (DM)

Wednesday, 03/19/02
-------------------
None


Thursday, 03/20/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   03/15  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     420K
Leading Indicators (DM) Feb  Forecast:  -0.4%  Previous:    -0.1%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)   Mar  Forecast:    4.0  Previous:      2.3
FOMC Minutes (DM)
Treasury Budget (DM)    Feb  Forecast:-$80.0B  Previous:  -$76.1B


Friday, 03/21/02
----------------
CPI (BB)                Feb  Forecast:   0.5%  Previous:     0.3%
Core CPI (BB)           Feb  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:     0.1%


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

GTK     Gtech Holdings             30.63     +0.53
HET     Harrah's Entertainment     34.02     +0.85
SHR     Schering ADS               39.70     +2.15
GME     Gamestop Corp              12.10     +0.56

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

EDO     EDO Corp                   17.18     +1.01

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ATK     Alliant Tech.              49.50     +1.81
KSS     Kohl's Corp                55.75     +1.05
JEC     Jacobs Engineering Group   40.05     +1.55
DRYR    Dreyers Ice Cream          67.75     +1.75

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CAH     Cardinal Health            50.31     -2.29
TRMS    Trimeris Inc               41.05     -2.90
UB      Unionbancal Corp           37.77     -2.46
AVCT    Avocent Corp               26.03     -2.95

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

                             




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The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

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