Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 03/17/2003

Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 03-17-2003
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Diplomacy Is Dead
Watch List:       ADCT, BBY, MMM, MXIM, RJR, and more...
Play of the Day:  Booting the Bears

MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
03-17-2003                   High    Low     Volume Advance/Decl
DJIA     8141.92 +  282.21  8145.84 7779.73   2003 mln  1852/143
NASDAQ   1392.27 +  51.94  1392.41  1326.28   1834 mln  1665/151
S&P 100   438.64 +  14.57   438.64  420.12    totals    3517/294
S&P 500   862.79 +  29.52   862.79  827.17
RUS 2000  365.40 +  11.01   365.40  352.38
DJ TRANS 2094.06 +  66.97   2096.84 2008.03
VIX        36.46 +   0.13    37.75   36.39
VIXN       46.67 +   0.87    48.65   46.63
Put/Call Ratio 0.70

Market Wrap

Diplomacy Is Dead

Finally a decision.  That's what the markets seemed to be saying
today as the U.S., Great Britain and Spain announced they would
bypass a vote on a new U.N. resolution and deal with disarming
Iraq themselves. The announcement came from those countries'
ambassadors this morning, which cited France's stated intention
to veto as the reason for not calling a vote.  Just asking, did
France give the U.S. exactly what it needed - a reason not to
count votes and a reason not to blame Russia?  President Bush
will be addressing the nation tonight and according to Colin
Powell, will be issuing a final ultimatum to Saddam Hussein. The
U.S. has already suggested that UN weapons inspectors leave the
country and that the time for inspections is over. Short of
Saddam lining up his mobile weapons factories and handing them
over to the U.S., it seems unlikely that the current situation
will end in anything but an invasion. The U.N. is pulling its
personnel out of Iraq and the Israeli army has instructed its
citizens to attain the insulation and other materials they may
need for sealed spaces in advance of a possible attack by Iraq.
We also got news late in the day that Turkey would now allow U.S.
troops.  Apparently they decided to take the money that was
offered since there was going to be an invasion either way. The
trick for traders is deciding just how the markets will react.

There has been talk of a possible war rally, as an invasion would
finally start the clock ticking toward an end to the uncertainty
surrounding war. The futures certainly did not indicate that
would be the case overnight. They started out down severely,
following similar action in Europe, after last night's
announcement that the U.S. was giving the UN until today to get
on board. However, once the UN Ambassadors stepped to the mike
and said there would be no vote due to France's stated intention
to veto, the markets caught fire, reversing from morning lows and
rallying strongly.  The Dow saw a turnaround of 300+ points
intraday following the announcement.  Think we're just a little
sensitive to each war-related announcement? Overall the market
seems to be pricing in a short war.  It just took someone to roll
the dice and start the game to get the clock ticking.

The theory on the recent weakness in the stock market has been
traced back to spending by businesses and their reluctance to
make any plans ahead of a possible war. Even Alan Greenspan said
it was difficult to tell just what type of economy we were
looking at until after geo-political concerns had worked
themselves out.  Businesses are supposedly holding off on
spending and hiring until after there is some resolution, either
through war or otherwise. The high cost of fuel has not helped
either. However, with the start of war apparently imminent, since
Saddam Hussein's only response so far has been to threaten
worldwide terrorism, we should think about what we are seeing in
the economy, since that's all that we will be left with after the

Granted, all of the negativity can be traced back to a reluctance
to spend and bulls are hoping for a quick loosening of the purse
strings after the uncertainty ends. However, I would be hesitant
to assume that all of our economic problems are based on fuel
costs or war hesitations.  The economy was already starting to
crack, heading into recession last year, before things in Iraq
started to heat up. The drop in technology spending fueled a
stock sell-off that experienced some bounces along the way, but
in reality was largely dependent on disappointing earnings and
low future outlooks given by both techs and traditional
companies.  The world economy continues to suffer along with the
U.S. and it will take more than the completion of a war in Iraq
to turn things around.  Will a drop in fuel costs after a war
help things?  Most definitely.  But will it help things to the
point of a complete economic turnaround?  That seems less likely.

I can certainly point out numerous reasons to short the current
rally. The most apparent is the fact that once we have the war
behind us, we will be faced with the same negativity that ended
the January rally.  Specifically, the 2003 outlooks by companies
such as IBM and Microsoft that included the possibility of geo-
political problems eventually ending and still saw a
disappointing year. Once the beginning of the year fund
contributions were out of the way, that's exactly what we got -
bottom line earnings reports and disappointing future guidance.

However, any casual market observer will note the massive
reversal we have seen over the past few days and certainly can
argue that we have seen a reversal in trend off the bottom.  We
achieved head and shoulders bearish objectives in the Dow, SPX
and OEX and have been moving higher ever since.  Bears that have
mad an attempt at shorting the rallies have had no success and
although we can point out plenty of reasons to go short, so far
we have not seen signs of weakness.  Trade what you see, right?
It is certainly hard to do in the current environment and we are
steaming ahead right into serious resistance levels. The Dow has
now bounced almost 700 points in less than a week. That certainly
seems unsustainable and we are likely due for a pullback at some
point.  But if this constitutes a trend reversal, then should we
be looking to buy the pullback?  In an uncertain economic
environment, there are undoubtedly plenty of bears looking to
short any sign of weakness and today's stall as we got into a
previous level of resistance from late January and late February
would seems to indicate we have run into a significant barrier.
Especially considering the rally came on a news event.
Unfortunately, we really don't know how much of the recent
decline came on geo-political concerns and how much was based on
the poor outlooks from individual companies.  Therefore, it is
difficult to predict just how far we may bounce when the pressure
of uncertainty is released.

For those traders who are looking for a similar recent pattern in
the charts, look no further back than October. At that time, the
bullish percents were similarly extended to the downside.  The
Dow bullish percent was down at 8%, similar to the current
reading of 10% heading into today's trading. This reflects the
percentage of stocks in the index giving point and figure buy
signals. The big rally, with today's extension certainly looks
like a similar pop. In October, we gained 15% in the first four
days of the reversal off the bottom, which is certainly greater
than the 9% gain over the past four sessions, but nevertheless
was a significant pop and signaled a coming reversal.  While we
did get a pullback, it was only for a day, before we headed
significantly higher, eventually reaching a top of Dow 8800
before a more significant pullback.  Today's rally took out
significant resistance at Dow 8000, but eventually stopped dead
at the 8150-8160 level that capped the January bounces repeatedly
after the Dow broke its head and shoulders neckline earlier that
month. The high on the day was 8145, but of course that was after
a rally of 284 points, so we must take that failure in context.

Daily Chart of the Dow

We also broke the 50 day moving average in the broader indices.
Rallies in the Dow, OEX and SPX all failed at that level this
morning, but cruised past those numbers in the afternoon. The Dow
50-dma of 8097; the SPX 50-dma of 857.76; and the OEX 50-dma of
434.57 all fell in afternoon trading.

The point and figure charts show a reversal that has been strong
enough to create buy signals in the Dow, OEX and SPX.  The signal
in the SPX amounts to a triple-top buy signal at 855, which is a
very bullish indication.  The triple-top also carries with it the
possibility of a bull trap, which is a sudden reversal down and
would require a trade of 860 to break. We got that trade of 860,
when we topped out at 862.68. Unfortunately for bulls, the
bearish resistance lines in those averages also lie just above at
870 in SPX (which coincides with resistance from the end of
January in the 865-868 range), 8300 in the Dow (which was
previously strong horizontal support before the January
breakdown, and 442.50 in the OEX (which coincides with strong
resistance at 440 from January).

Point and Figure Chart of the SPX

The COMP, following a 50 point rally to 1392.25, is also
approaching its next level of resistance at 1400, powered
partially by the chip stocks.  The SOX gained 5.6% to close at
322.25 and has crossed its 200-dma to the upside for the first
time since May 2002. The next level of resistance in the SOX is
likely to be 230, where there is heavy horizontal resistance.

The dollar jumped through recent resistance and bonds sold off
decisively, lending credence to the idea that now that we have
some certainty, the bears are getting out of the way and money is
coming back into stocks.

One of the factors behind today's rally that was also connected
to the war news was a drop in the price of oil futures. While I
mentioned above that a decrease in fuel costs might not lead to a
complete economic turnaround, it certainly will give the economy
some boost by reducing the operating costs of almost all
companies, whether they are involved in manufacturing or simply
pay shipping costs for their products.  Crude Oil Futures dropped
another 0.50 per barrel on news that the U.S. may tap its
strategic petroleum reserves.  While that possibility was not a
new one, talk heated up about the possibility in the wake of
today's developments.   The fact that we have seen oil futures
drop over the past few sessions continues the inverse
relationship between fuel prices and the stock market.  I began
highlighting the longer term charts going back to last summer
that charted the general trends between the two and so far,
little has changed in that relationship.  Of course, much of it
is due to the fact that both reflect geo-political developments
in opposite ways, but the action of the past few days is
particularly interesting, since they have been reacting opposite
to their traditional behaviors as war becomes more certain, but
still maintain to inverse relationship to each other.

Chart of Crude Oil Futures and the Dow

Does it seem that all I want to talk about is war?  Maybe it's
because that was the driving force behind today's action.
However, there were some developments that are worth noting and
could draw some attention after the impact of today's events on
the markets begins to fade. J.P. Morgan cut its estimates well
below previous estimates for auto stocks and their suppliers.  It
said preliminary feedback regarding March sales and a slowing
momentum of industry incentive spending led it to predict light
vehicle sales would fall to 15 million or lower in March and 14.5
million or lower in April. It said it expects the drops to lead
to production cuts that are more dramatic than those that have
already been announced.

Oracle releases results on Tuesday after the bell.  This morning
we got cautious statements from Pacific Growth, which echoed
statements from Lehman on March 5. Lehman cited concerns that
ORCL's license revenues could be weak. PG cited similar concerns
and said the company should match estimates due to currency and
cost cuts, but that revenues and licenses should be lower than
forecasts. A disappointing report from Oracle could certainly
erase much of the gains from the past few days, but if the auto
news didn't put an anchor on the rally then it is likely even
results from Oracle will take a back seat to global developments.

We also got some indications on retail sales that were mixed.
Wal-Mart and Federated both affirmed earlier predictions for
March same store sales.  Wal-Mart is expecting an increase in the
low single digits, while Federated is expecting a drop of 3-4%.
J.C. Penney, on the other hand, said its department stores might
miss forecasts for little change or a slight decline.

One of the more curious developments today was the rise in the
Market Volatility Index (VIX).  The VIX, which reflects implied
volatility levels of options in the OEX, generally rises on
rallies and falls on market drops.  Part of this is due to the
fact that markets generally drop faster than they rise and the
other reason is that covered writing (the purchase of stock and
sale of out of the money calls) creates selling pressure on the
way up.  The VIX is usually moved by institutional order flow,
since the OEX is a heavily traded product and small retail orders
don't usually make much of a dent.  Rather than drop on today's
big rally, the VIX actually rose, diverging from its usual
pattern and suggesting institutions may not believe we are out of
the woods just yet.

Now we are left to decide where we are headed next.  If we follow
October's pattern, we could be headed much higher.  However, what
more can the President say tonight that would make war any more
imminent than it seemingly became this morning, or any shorter
than analysts are already expecting? Shouldn't the short-covering
be over by now?   Won't oil spike up initially? Isn't the risk to
oil prices greater that Saddam sets the field on fire than that
he doesn't?  Certainly it is difficult to step in front of a
speeding train and even those bears who would like to enter in
front of that resistance at Dow 8150 should do so with only small
positions.  Overnight futures trading should give us an idea of
the initial reaction to the President's speech.  A move through
Dow 8170 could certainly indicate a continued run and if we do
break that level, I would suggest shorts step to the side and
wait for a test of bearish resistance at SPX 870. If we make it
above SPX 870 (actually a break of bearish resistance comes at
875), look out above.  For now, we need to respect the extreme
uncertainty surrounding the current environment and make sure our
bets reflect that uncertainty. I'd like to tell readers just how
we will react to the President's speech, which I can't; but if
the action of the last few days is any indication, then we have
seen a major trend reversal.  However, I would feel more
comfortable coming to that conclusion if our jittery markets
weren't making unpredictable moves each time we get new
information on the global front.


The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.


ADC Telecommunications - ADCT - close: 2.50 change: +0.15

WHAT TO WATCH: Aggressive traders may want to keep an eye on
ADCT.  The stock is already sitting on some large gains after
rallying from the $2.10 region, but with plenty of room until the
January high of $3.15 it wouldn't be surprising to see the short
squeeze continue.  Rather than chasing the stock higher, we'd be
looking for a pullback to the $2.30-$2.40 region to offer an
entry point.  Although the daily chart shows possible overhead
resistance at $2.55 and $2.65, those levels would probably be
easily dispatched if the tech sector continues to rally.


Best Buy - BBY - close: 29.87 change: +1.51

WHAT TO WATCH: A huge turnaround in the RLX.X retail index has
pushed BBY up to solid resistance at $30.00.  This level stymied
the bulls during rally attempts in December, January, and
February.  A trade at $30.00 would create a double-top buy signal
on the point-and-figure chart, which also shows that BBY has
broken above bearish resistance.  It's hard to make a fundamental
case for a continued rally in the retail sector, but investors
may be anticipating that a quick resolution to the pending war
with Iraq will lead to a sharp increase in consumer spending
habits.  Watch for a move above $30.00 to clear the way for a
possible rally to the $33-$35 region.  Traders seeking upside
confirmation may want to wait for shares to break above the
December high of $30.45 before considering long positions.


C.R. Bard - BCR - close: 59.74 change: +1.34

WHAT TO WATCH: Shareholders of this medical device manufacturer
will be singing a happy song if BCR breaks above resistance at
$60.00.  That level has a historical tendency to give the bulls
fits and has kept a lid on several rally attempts since November.
The point-and-figure chart shows that a trade at $60.00 would
create a quadruple buy signal.  Meanwhile, the rising daily
stochastics (5,3,3) suggest that there could be more upside in
store for Bard.  Should a breakout occur, we'd be looking for
shares to rally back to the late-2001 highs near $65.00.


Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 15.95 change: -0.06

WHAT TO WATCH: Broadcom seemed to be nearly oblivious to the
large semiconductor rally on Monday.  The stock trended lower
throughout the session after failing at Friday's high and closed
below its 200-dma.  BRCM will have a tough time regaining that
moving average if the SOX.X loses its upward momentum and starts
to retrace its recent gains.  Short positions could be targeted
at current levels, initially targeting a move back to the $14.50
region.  Possible support lies at the converging 50-day and 100-
day moving averages near $15.40.


3M Corp. - MMM - close: 129.50 change: +3.95

WHAT TO WATCH: The Dow Jones has covered an incredible amount of
ground since it bottomed out last Wednesday, gaining roughly 10%
and moving above resistance at 8000.  That's quite impressive,
but is the rally sustainable?  Profit-taking could be fast and
furious if the market decides that the looming war with Iraq
might not be as quick and painless as some observers have
speculated.  Should the Dow roll over and start to retrace its
recent gains, we like MMM as a possible short.  The stock has
rebounded from the lower end of its multi-month trading range and
now must contend with overhead resistance in the $130.00-$131.55
region.  Bears can watch for a failed rally from this area to
offer an entry point.  And what if MMM does breakout to new all-
time highs?  At this point it would take a very aggressive
approach to chase the stock higher.  Bulls will probably want to
see some sideways consolidation before attempting to buy a


Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 39.47 change: +1.94

WHAT TO WATCH: The semiconductor index has led the NASDAQ's
charge higher over the past four sessions.  It's already looking
overextended on a short-term basis, but today's breakout above
the 200-dma has raised the possibility that the SOX.X might
retest resistance in the 340 region.  Aggressive short-term
traders could think about long positions in MXIM if the stock
breaks above the $40.00 mark.  Maxim is signaling a fresh double-
top point-and-figure buy signal and has no bar chart resistance
until the $43-$44.  But remember - the stock has already seen
some large gains over the past week, so the potential for profit-
taking would be pretty high if the sector bullishness fades.


RJ Reynolds - RJR - close: 36.69 change: +0.37

WHAT TO WATCH: Tobacco stocks were notably absent from today's
huge market rally as the sector choked on news of a downgrade
from Solomon Smith Barney.  The firm reduced its rating on the
tobacco industry from "market-weight" to "under-weight," citing
fundamental concerns in the domestic cigarette market and the
likelihood of a negative court ruling in an Illinois class action
lawsuit targeting Altria (MO).  RJR looks like a good short
within the group because it's threatening to break below critical
support at $35.00.  Using a move under last year's low of $34.83
to provide bearish confirmation, traders can attempt to capture a
move down to the $31-$32 area of congestion.


Sylvan Learning Systems - SLVN - close: 15.21 change: -0.20

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of SLVN rallied sharply last week after the
education service announced it would divest its K-12 operating
units in an effort to focus on the post-secondary market.
Investors applauded this shift towards college and adult
education and launched the stock from $12.00 to $16.00 in just
three sessions.  However, the bullish momentum now appears to be
losing steam.  The stock faded the market today and finished with
a 1.2% loss.  Shares are beginning to roll over from the
descending 200-dma ($15.85) while the daily stochastics (5,3,3)
begin to fall from the overbought extreme.  Speculative traders
could target short positions at current levels, using a stop-loss
slightly above $16.00.

Play-of-the-Day  (BULLISH non-tech play)

Timberland - TBL - close: 41.78 change: +0.79 stop: 38.74

Company Description:
The Timberland Company designs, develops, engineers, markets and
distributes, under the Timberland, Timberland PRO and Mountain
Athletics by Timberland brands, footwear and apparel and
accessories products for men, women and children. The Company's
products fall into two primary groups, footwear and apparel and
accessories (including product care and licensed products).
Timberland's products are sold in the United States and
international better-grade department stores and athletic stores.
(source: company website)

- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: March 13th, 2003 -

Why We Like It:
A scan of news stories for TBL turns up few recent developments.
As a matter of fact, the latest noteworthy event was the
company's earnings announcement on February 6th. But what an
announcement it was! Timberland reported fourth-quarter results
that beat Multex estimates by 11 cents per share, and revenue
growth of 4.7% on a year-over-year basis. Not too shabby,
considering the otherwise bearish retail environment. The
company's CEO also said that TBL is anticipating low double-digit
revenue growth in the first half of 2003 and mid single-digit
growth for the second half. These sunny expectations did not fall
on deaf ears. TBL gapped higher in reaction to the earnings
report and hasn't looked back. Shares have shown excellent
relative strength over the past five weeks, trading contrary to
the steadily downtrending Dow Jones. Shares of competitors Nike
(NKE) and Reebok (RBK) are also trading at or near long-term

After a brief pullback from resistance at $40.00, today's broader
market rally helped to push TBL to new multi-month highs. This
breakout created a double-top buy signal on the point-and-figure
chart. The bullish vertical count is $66. Glancing at the weekly
chart, you can see that the next region of overhead resistance is
at the May 2002 highs of $43.00. This would offer a possible
short-term upside target. We're anticipating that TBL will
eventually break above that level and make its way towards the
highs for that year in the $45.50 area. Our entry strategy for
this play will be to enter a hypothetical long position if TBL
breaks above today's high of $40.80. Conservative traders might
want to wait for shares to first pull back and test the $40.00
level, which should now offer support. If the play is activated
our stop will be set at $38.74, slightly under yesterday's low.
Those with a more aggressive strategy could use a stop below the
rising 21-dma at $38.25. TBL hasn't traded under that moving
average since it gapped higher on February 6th.

- Last Update: March 14th, 2003 -

Our new bullish play did a decent job in out performing both the
Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P Retail Index (RLX). While a 30-
cent gain isn't much to write home about it's still a positive
day. Those traders who were looking for a dip to the $40 level
probably got that opportunity early on when shares dripped to
40.11 before hitting new relative highs. Now that Premier
Investor has been hypothetically triggered into this play when
TBL traded at 40.81, our stop loss is at 38.74. We are going to
attempt to monitor this stop loss carefully. TBL, while
displaying incredible relative strength the last several weeks is
looking a little overbought and due for a pull back. Fortunately,
with the significant breakout over $40 on Thursday, the shorts
could be scared into covering and accelerate the stock's rise to
our target area in the $45 region.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: March 17th, 2003 -

Timberland's breakout to new multi-month highs has coincided
nicely with the broader market's stunning reversal.  TBL extended
its gains on Monday and moved towards the next area of overhead
resistance at $43.00.  Shares found strong intraday resistance at
$42.00, so a breakout about that level on Tuesday might present a
bullish action point.  However, TBL has posted some relatively
large gains over the past four sessions and might be due for some
consolidation.  With that in mind, entries on a breakout to new
highs are probably better left to more aggressive traders.  The
alternate approach would be to wait for a pullback to the $40.50-
$41.00 range before legging into long positions.  Our stop-loss
for this play is currently set at $38.74, just below the 21-dma.
Traders looking for less downside could use a stop slightly below
psychological support at $40.00.

Picked on March 14th at $40.81
Results since picked:    +0.97
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)

To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:


For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.


Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 03-17-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section two:

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Stop Adjustments:     TOO (bullish)

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section

AT Play Updates

Stop Adjustments

TOO Inc - TOO - close: 17.20 change: +1.00 stop: 16.94 *new*

The RLX.X retail index exploded for a 4.9% gain today after both
Wal-Mart (WMT) and Federated (FD) reiterated their March sales
expectations.  There was also rampant speculation that the war
with Iraq (which now appears to be a matter of "when" instead of
"if") will come to a swift conclusion.  This sentiment actually
fueled the large broader market gains on Monday.  Many analysts
also believe that a quick end to the war would lead to a large
increase in consumer spending, which would obviously be a boon
for the retail sector.  In terms of our long play, TOO has posted
some very large gains over the past three sessions and appears to
be headed for a test of whole-number resistance at $18.00.  At
this time we're going to place an official exit target just below
that level at $17.94.  We've also raised our stop-loss to $16.94,
which should protect a gain of roughly 8%.  Traders looking to
harvest a larger gain may want to consider taking profits at
current levels.  The PI newsletter is currently up 9.8% in this
hypothetical trade.

  Trading Ideas

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

GD      General Dynamics           56.26     +3.59
SFG     Stancorp Financial         50.80     +2.01
CUB     Cubic Corp                 16.26     +1.07
JNY     Jones Apparel Group        29.12     +0.79
LZB     La-Z-Boy Inc               18.00     +0.56

Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

NFLX    Netflix Inc                18.00     +1.45
THQI    THQ Inc                    14.07     +1.57
UNM     Unumprovident Corp          9.01     +1.45
BSG     Biosys Group               15.97     +1.11
CREE    Cree Inc                   19.60     +1.52

Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

NKE     Nike Inc                   51.57     +1.82
ADI     Analog Devices             30.36     +1.60
MWD     Morgan Stanley             38.40     +2.52
FAST    Fastenal Company           30.62     +1.24
AFFX    Affymetrix Inc             28.91     +1.81
MXIM    Maxim Integrated           39.47     +1.94
SNDK    Sandisk Corp               20.41     +1.30
CHIR    Chiron Corp                38.49     +1.80
NOC     Northrop Grumman           86.17     +1.77
MOLX    Molex Inc                  23.45     +1.45
BWA     Borg Warner                46.58     +1.28

Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

OFIX    Orthofix Intl.             24.72     -1.33

Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change


To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:


For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.


Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives