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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/20/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-20-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      War Rally?
Market Sentiment: Energizer Market
Play-of-the-Day:  Staying Power

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      03-20-2003           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     8286.60 + 21.20  8318.81  8130.86 1.66 bln 1847/1348
NASDAQ   1402.77 +  5.70  1411.41  1371.90 1.55 bln 1760/1423
S&P 100   445.79 +  0.95   447.79   437.35   Totals 3607/2771
S&P 500   875.84 +  1.82   879.60   859.01
W5000    8284.59 + 26.20  8314.22  8123.18
RUS 2000  370.49 +  1.98   371.27   362.64
DJ TRANS 2170.55 + 21.40  2177.11  2117.77
VIX        35.26 -  0.92    38.10    34.36
VXN        48.48 +  0.28    49.57    46.75
Total Volume 3.577B
Total UpVol  2,110B
Total DnVol  1,378M
52wk Highs  145
52wk Lows   116
TRIN       1.03
PUT/CALL   0.56
-----------------------------------------------------------------


===========
Market Wrap
===========

War Rally?

The great war rally sputtered to a start with about as much
enthusiasm as the bombing in Baghdad. We got a couple of
buying spurts intraday after bouncing back from the morning
"sell the news" drop and Baghdad got a couple bombs on three
buildings. The lack of shock and awe in the rally matched
the lack of shock and awe in the bombing. Both started
with a whimper.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Wilshire 5000 Chart - Daily


The Jobless Claims fell slightly from 425K to 421K but the
estimate was for a drop to 415K. The four-week moving average
rose to 425K and continuing claims to 3.55 million. Not a
great piece of economic news for any post war rally. The
continuing claims rose to the highest level since November.
The weak job market in February continues to get weaker in
March and there is no improvement in sight.

The Conference Board Leading Indicators fell -0.4% in February
and this was the first decline since September 2002. Even
worse than the CBLI was the Philadelphia Fed Survey which
came in at -8.0% compared to the consensus of +1.0%. This
9% difference shows how far the manufacturing sector has
fallen in the last month. According to all reports activity
just stopped in mid February and has not returned. New
Orders fell to -4.3 from +14.1 and prices paid rose to
25.1 from 16.2. Inventories continued to fall as well
as the average work week and delivery times. Excess
capacity and weak demand continues to pressure the
workforce and produce more layoffs. The only material
improvement was the six month outlook which went from
24.7 to 46.4 solely on the hope that the Iraq war would
be over and the economy would begin to recover.

The Fed minutes for the January meeting showed that the
Fed expected an economic recovery soon but that the
confidence in that outlook by some Fed members was wearing
thin. There was increased concern that the Iraq war was
not the actual problem and even after the conflict is
over we could see more weakness. Considering this was
at the January meeting and with the increased confusion
expressed at the March meeting it appears that the
frustration is continuing to build. The FOMC still felt
the current stimulus in place would be enough to power
the economy but was looking forward to the President's
plan as well. This official view was different to the
view from Greenspan when he testified before Congress
after the meeting. In general the consensus was still
a better economy 4-6 months out but that view was getting
weaker.

The Dow managed to close positive for the seventh
consecutive day but just shy of 8300. The Dow has not
had a seven day streak since July 2000. The Nasdaq
spent the day fighting to break and hold 1400 and
despite a dip at the close it managed to close at 1402.
This is a minor victory but still a victory. This comes
only a day before a quadruple witching Friday with
single stock futures adding to the expiration matrix.

The war rally sputtered and coughed today as it did in
the futures over night. The bombs fell and so did the
averages as institutions sold into every rally attempt.
The selling was not strong but just strong enough to
keep the markets from making any major gains. It would
appear the buyers are waiting for the "shock and awe"
phase of the attack to spend their money, if they have
any left.

The Dow hit a high today of 8318, which just happens to
be the 100DMA and strong resistance. The Nasdaq high of
1411 was just below the 200 EMA of 1415. Now let's review
the circumstances. The markets have stretched their
winning streak to seven days and nearly +900 points in
the case of the Dow. This was in anticipation of a rally
on the start of the war. The major indexes have risen to
strong resistance and slowed to a crawl. The war started
and despite a nice rebound from a -100 point opening dip
there was no monster rally. It appears the post war rally
may be a figment of the bulls imagination.

Obviously it is too soon to form that opinion but there
are some other indicators to watch. The VIX fell to 35
and is not showing any real fear of a drop. Option
activity is minimal and is not showing any expectations
of a bounce or a dip. Yesterday we had significant put
buying on the S&P-500 but today was minimal. Basically
all the bets have been placed. Buyers loaded up over the
last week in anticipation of a repeat of the 1991 rally
and in effect pushed that rally forward in time. Even the
drop in oil prices to $28 from last months near $40
level failed to spark the markets and this is a MAJOR
economic plus.

I am not going out on a limb and say there is not a
continuation of this rally in our near future. The shock
and awe campaign is rumored to be starting tomorrow due
to the final approval by Turkey to allow multiple battle
groups to over fly their country. This could trigger
another bout of buying but the basic problem still
remains. It is the economy not the war. Yes, the fear
and uncertainty of war has impacted our economy but the
real problem is lack of demand, high unemployment and
lack of any single factor to power a rebound. Just
starting the war will not solve this. There is now
a greater chance of a terrorist attack or multiple
terrorist attacks. Remember, even though Osama thinks
Saddam is crazy (pot calling the kettle black?) he
started plotting attacks on the US when we attacked
Iraq the first time. His justification was the killing
of Muslims by the great satan regardless of the reason.
We have even less reason this time around and the
Homeland Security briefings have said they have received
specific and credible intelligence of potential new
attacks. (Heard that before?)

My point tonight is simple. A short war is already priced
in and anything contrary to that opinion will cause bulls
to exit early. The rally is priced in and lack of any
continuation may cause bulls to start taking profits
off the table. There are very few reasons for traders
to add to long positions now. There are many reasons
for traders to reduce long positions with no magic
bullet taking out a certain key leader in Iraq. In short
the balance of risk has shifted from the bears to the
bulls. When we were at 7400 there was no future for
the shorts. At 8300/1400 there is no future for the
bulls without a major news event to break the status
quo. I am not giving up on a war rally but I am
definitely keeping my eye on the down side potential
as well.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

The Energizer Market
by Steve Price

Today certainly gave us some conflicting signals, with the Dow
and other indices trading in extremes as the markets adjusted to
the start of war.  The first move was lower, as bulls took some
profits off the table from the past few sessions. We cracked a
few seemingly important support levels, only to find buyers
stepping back in to buy the dip. There has been much talk about a
war rally and the possibility that we have already seen the
buying in anticipation of a repeat of 1991.  However, if appears
that sinking oil prices and the removal of market uncertainty
have kept the money flowing back into equities. At the end of the
day, it was clear that we are... stilllll going.

One indication that bullish sentiment is alive and well is the
bond market.  One of the more interesting observations that I've
discussed in recent articles was the bounce in yields (reflecting
selling in bonds) that came at the same time as the Dow/SPX/OEX
all filled their bearish head and shoulders objectives.  At the
same time those objectives were filled, the ten and thirty year
yields hit their October lows.  The yield charts tend to mirror
the equities, since they show an inverse relationship to bonds
(as the price of a bond goes up, its yield drops).   The bounce
off the October lows indicated a reallocation of money from bonds
back into stocks at that time and the yields soared over the past
few sessions along with stocks.  The ten-year made it all the way
up to almost 4% where it stalled on Wednesday.  It found legs
again Tuesday (as bond selling continued) along with stocks in
the afternoon rally and broke through that 4% mark that has
served as closing resistance since the end of January.  It
reached a high of 4.044 and by the end of the day, finished at
4.006.  The close above 4.0 is yet another bullish sign. There is
intraday resistance at 4.1%, so that should be the next level for
traders to watch.

The SPX had failed on Wednesday just 0.01 shy of a bearish
resistance breakthrough on the point and figure chart and stalled
out again there on the first rally attempt.  However, the
afternoon breakout took us as high as 879.60 and led to that
complete breakthrough. The OEX had a breakthrough on Wednesday on
its 2.5 point PnF chart and the Dow has finally cracked the 8300
level from the downside.

That 8300 level in the Dow is important as it served as long term
support before the head and shoulders breakdowns last September
and again in January.  It served as support for the shoulder
formations in the last pattern and for the neckline in the
former.  It was the first close below 8300 that sent us reeling
in both instances and a close above it certainly appears to put
us back on the path to 8800. We weren't able to achieve that
close today, but we are getting closer.  The SPX was able to
maintain a close above the 875 breakthrough level. While it may
not be straight up from here, we continue to add to the bullish
sentiment that has turned the bullish percents higher in the Dow,
SPX and NDX and it appears we have seen a significant turning of
the tide that may not end soon.

While it seems less effective to study the technicals as we head
into war, knowing world events could render them useless for
short periods of time, they do measure the ultimate response to
those events and for that reason, may actually cut through some
of the noise and opinions we hear from analysts.  After all, the
true measure of financial opinions is where you put your money.
If institutions think we are undervalued they will buy and if
they think we are overvalued they will sell.  The charts let us
know exactly what is happening, regardless of the reasons behind
it.

As the price of oil continues to plummet, in spite of the flaming
Iraqi oil fields, cost reductions will eventually make their way
into consumers' pockets and businesses' cost savings. That may be
the quickest way to turn the economy back around and it seems
that plenty of investors feel the same way.  If the war goes as
quickly and neatly as many people think it will, then there may
be some basis for the rally.  Many companies are citing the war
as the main reason that there is a hold on spending.  However,
right now that is the easy excuse for a poor economy.  Oil
futures are approaching the $27-$28 top we saw as resistance
through much of last fall. We got a bounce off that level this
morning, which also coincided with the 200-dma on the futures
contract.  If the drop in price slows, the equity rally may slow
as well.

In what the U.S. calls a financial offensive, the government
seized and confiscated all non-diplomatic Iraqi government assets
held in the U.S. and directed other countries to do so, as well.
Treasury Secretary Snow said that any country that did not comply
with the request might face denied access to U.S. markets. Turkey
also voted to allow the U.S. use of its airspace, which according
to many experts should help the U.S. effort significantly.

Each chart I look at appears very overbought and I can't help but
think, "There's no way that is sustainable," or "it's got to be
time for a pullback."  However, we continue to climb higher and I
keep prodding myself with the adage that the trend is in effect
until demonstrated otherwise. Right now, the recent uptrend is
still in effect.  Traders should be careful with this particular
trend because of the global pressures; but until something
changes, lean long - just do it with risk capital only.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8287

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 7895
 50-dma: 8072
200-dma: 8447

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  875

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  839
 50-dma:  855
200-dma:  893

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1080

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1026
 50-dma: 1009
200-dma:  994
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX): The SOX crept higher again today,
flirting with that resistance at 331 I talked about earlier in
the week.  It reached a high of 334 intraday, but fell back to
329 at the close.  The break above 331 was promising, but a close
would have been better for bulls.  The next level of resistance
here is 350 and there are a number of stocks that are flirting
with corresponding resistance.  OI has added MXIM to our call
list with a trigger of $40.50.  Other stocks to watch for a
breakout in the sector are LLTC above $35 and CCMP above $48.
Look for support in the SOX above 331 before leaping, though.

52-week High: 393
52-week Low : 214
Current:      329

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 296
 50-dma: 293
 200-dma: 314
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX has continued to hold above support at 34-35%.  The
descending trend line from the July 2002 and October 2002 highs
continues to keep a lid on it, while it finally broke below the
200-dma at 35.62, but not by much.  Traders should continue to
watch the 34-35% level for signs of a breakdown, which would be
bullish for equities.  Until then, the VIX is signaling caution
for long positions at this level.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 35.26 -0.92
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 48.48 +0.28
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.56        854,816       480,038
Equity Only    0.52        515,240       269,260
OEX            0.86         60,455        51,823
QQQ            0.41         95,961        39,566
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          38.1    + 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    45.0    + 1     Bull Alert
Dow Indust.   30.0    +10     Bull Alert
S&P 500       36.8    + 2     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       35.0    + 8     Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.68
10-Day Arms Index  1.30
21-Day Arms Index  1.37
55-Day Arms Index  1.29

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1698           1120
NASDAQ     1680           1358

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        59               28
NASDAQ      46               34

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,661
NASDAQ     1,549
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/11/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added to both sides of the equation, with an
additional 14,000 long contracts and 13,000 shorts.  Small
traders mirrored that activity, adding 5,000 longs and 4,000
shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/18/03      423,871   481,871   (58,000)   (6.4%)
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)
03/04/03      426,053   472,492   (46,439)   (5.2%)
03/11/03      440,688   485,938   (45,250)   (4.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03      155,475    91,102    64,373     26.1%
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%
03/04/03      164,759    98,636    66,123     25.1%
03/11/03      169,450   102,631    66,819     24.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials added almost equally to both sides with 3,700 long
contracts and 3,000 shorts. The slightly higher addition to the
long side was similar to the activity in the S&P.  Small traders
got longer as well, with 3,000 additional long contracts and
1,600 additional shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       38,486     50,501   (12,015) (13.5%)
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)
03/04/03       39,934     52,978   (13,044) (14.0%)
03/11/03       43,641     56,020   (12,379) (12.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       25,482     9,425    16,057    46.0%
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%
03/04/03       24,240     8,038    16,202    50.2%
03/11/03       27,196     9,674    17,522    47.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials broke ranks in the Dow, adding 1,600 short contracts
and only 400 longs.  Small traders added 300 long contracts and
reduced shorts by about the same amount.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/18/03       18,812    11,939    6,873      22.4%
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%
03/04/03       21,326    12,724    8,602      25.3%
03/11/03       21,726    14,370    7,356      20.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/18/03        5,561     8,973    (3,412)   (23.5%)
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%)
03/04/03        5,233     8,075    (2,842)   (21.4%)
03/11/03        5,549     7,727    (2,178)   (16.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BULLISH tech play))
===============

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 39.56 chg: unch stop: *text*

Company Description:
Maxim Integrated Products is a leading international
supplier of quality analog and mixed-signal products for
applications that require real world signal processing.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the recent rally in the
chip sector is the fact that the semiconductor index has
maintained its rapid gains.  The SOX.X is sitting more than 18%
above last Wednesday's lows, and for the past three days it's
traced a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows.  On
Wednesday morning the bears got a glimmer of hope as Pacific
Crest Securities issued a valuation downgrade of several stocks
within the group.  Although those comments pressured the sector
in early trading, the selling disappeared once the SOX.X bottomed
out above its 200-dma near 315.  Today's action saw the index
outperform the NASDAQ while moving towards the next region of
overhead resistance at 340-350.

MXIM was one of the stocks targeted by Pacific Crest's downgrade.
Shares initially headed lower and retraced a portion of Monday's
gains.  But much like the SOX.X, that pullback was short-lived.
By the end of the session MXIM had returned to the Monday/Tuesday
trading range of $39-$40.  It continued to trade near $40.00
during today's session.  Pressure seems to be building as MXIM
consolidates its recent gains below that level of resistance.
Volume is holding near high levels, and the stock is showing a
double-top buy signal on the point-and-figure chart.  What's
especially intriguing about Maxim is the lack of overhead
resistance until the late-November highs.  We think shares could
rapidly move towards that area ($44-$45) if the $40.00 level
gives way.  But because we'd like to see confirmation of a
breakout, we won't enter this paper trade until MXIM trades above
$40.25.  If the play is triggered we'll use a stop at $38.11, two
cents under Wednesday's low.  Traders willing to take a little
more heat could use a stop slightly below whole-number support at
$38.00.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/30/03 (unconfirmed)







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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-20-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     MXIM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  BBY, TBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  T
  Closed Bullish Plays:  TOO

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  BBOX

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 39.56 chg: unch stop: *text*

Company Description:
Maxim Integrated Products is a leading international
supplier of quality analog and mixed-signal products for
applications that require real world signal processing.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the recent rally in the
chip sector is the fact that the semiconductor index has
maintained its rapid gains.  The SOX.X is sitting more than 18%
above last Wednesday's lows, and for the past three days it's
traced a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows.  On
Wednesday morning the bears got a glimmer of hope as Pacific
Crest Securities issued a valuation downgrade of several stocks
within the group.  Although those comments pressured the sector
in early trading, the selling disappeared once the SOX.X bottomed
out above its 200-dma near 315.  Today's action saw the index
outperform the NASDAQ while moving towards the next region of
overhead resistance at 340-350.

MXIM was one of the stocks targeted by Pacific Crest's downgrade.
Shares initially headed lower and retraced a portion of Monday's
gains.  But much like the SOX.X, that pullback was short-lived.
By the end of the session MXIM had returned to the Monday/Tuesday
trading range of $39-$40.  It continued to trade near $40.00
during today's session.  Pressure seems to be building as MXIM
consolidates its recent gains below that level of resistance.
Volume is holding near high levels, and the stock is showing a
double-top buy signal on the point-and-figure chart.  What's
especially intriguing about Maxim is the lack of overhead
resistance until the late-November highs.  We think shares could
rapidly move towards that area ($44-$45) if the $40.00 level
gives way.  But because we'd like to see confirmation of a
breakout, we won't enter this paper trade until MXIM trades above
$40.25.  If the play is triggered we'll use a stop at $38.11, two
cents under Wednesday's low.  Traders willing to take a little
more heat could use a stop slightly below whole-number support at
$38.00.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/30/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Best Buy Co - BBY - close: 29.89 change: -0.37 stop: 26.99

Outlining the strategy for entering this long play, we said on
Tuesday night that the optimal approach would probably be to wait
for a pullback to the $28-$29 area.  Shares began to descend
towards that region during yesterday's session.  BBY initially
popped higher on positive brokerage comments (Morgan Stanley
raised the equity's price target from $30 to $36), but quickly
pulled back with the RLX.X retail index.  Investors may not have
been that enamored with Morgan's comments.  After all, the stock
is already trading near $30, so at this point it almost looks
like MWD is playing catch-up and trying to adjust for the recent
rally.  Shares stabilized during afternoon trading before
finishing with a small loss.  Thursday morning's action saw BBY
move lower with the broader market after the opening bell.  This
decline provided the pullback to $29.00 that we'd been looking
for.  Shares rebounded from that level (thanks in large part to
an intraday uptrend in the Dow Jones) and finished in the red by
1.2%.  Traders will be encouraged that the past two days of
losses came on less volume than the 5.6 million shares that
accompanied Tuesday's breakout above $30.00.  Tomorrow we'll be
watching for shares to reclaim that level and move towards the
relative high of $31.10.  New entries could be evaluated on
another pullback to $29.00.

Picked on March 18th at $30.50
Gain since picked:       -0.61
Earnings Date         04/01/03 (unconfirmed)




---

Timberland Co. - TBL - close: 41.99 change: +0.74 stop: 38.74

TBL has spent the past three sessions trading between $40.70 and
$42.00.  Shares moved to the top of that range today, thanks to a
little help from fellow shoemaker Nike.  NKE reported quarterly
earnings last night that beat analyst expectations by a penny.
The company also reported an increase in worldwide futures orders
for products slated for delivery between March and July 2003.  TBL
traded strong in reaction to this news and showed good relative
strength throughout the session.  Shares ultimately finished with a
gain of 1.7%, easily outperforming the Dow Jones.  An intraday chart
shows that TBL continued to butt its head against the $42.00 area of
resistance in afternoon trading.  Short-term traders can watch for a
breakout above that level (using a move above today's high of $42.03
to provide upside confirmation) as a bullish action point.  Bear in
mind, however, that our initial upside objective is the $45.00
region.

Picked on March 14th at $40.81
Results since picked:    +1.18
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

AT&T - T - close: 16.65 change: -0.28 stop: *text*

There just aren't many fundamental reasons for investors to be
buying T.  On Tuesday Sprint (FON) turned up the heat on AT&T
when they announced plans to package local phone service with
long-distance and wireless calling.  Then came last night's news
that Verizon (VZ) had won FCC approval to offer long-distance
service to local customers in Washington D.C., Maryland, and West
Virginia.  This will put VZ in direct competition with AT&T's
Government Services division, which provides telecom access to
government agencies in the nation's capital.  T gapped lower on
this news and spent Thursday's session trading below $17.00.
With last week's gains continuing to erode and the daily
stochastics (5,3,3) reversing from the upper band, we've bumped
our entry trigger for this play up to $16.48.  This strategy is
somewhat aggressive, so traders looking for more downside
confirmation will want to wait for a breakdown below the relative
low at $15.75.  If T trades at or below $16.48 we'll enter a
hypothetical short trade with a stop at $17.36, three cents above
the near-term highs.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/24/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

TOO Inc - TOO - close: 17.68 change: +0.53 stop: 16.94

TOO experienced some profit-taking on Wednesday but managed to
find solid intraday support at $17.00.  That level was briefly
violated during the middle of the session, but shares rebounded
two cents above our stop-loss.  Broader market weakness this
morning dragged too under $17.00 once again - this time stopping
us out en route to an intraday low of $16.75.  Our play was
closed for a gain of $1.28, or 8.1%.  TOO leveled out when the
Dow Jones began to rebound during the second hour of trading and
enjoyed steady buying throughout the rest of the day.  That
strong performance is an indication that shares might continue to
rally towards the next level of bar chart resistance at $19.50.
However, traders still holding long positions should strongly
consider taking profits if TOO rolls over from the $18.00 region.

Picked on February 27th at $15.66
Gain since picked:          +1.28
Earnings Date            02/19/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Black Box - BBOX - close: 30.25 change: +0.17 stop: 28.69

Strength in the NWX.X networking index pumped up shares of BBOX
on Thursday - albeit in a rather un-dramatic way.  The stock
gained half a percentage point and traded in a narrow 80-cent
range.  Shares did manage to break above the previous session's
intraday resistance at $30.30 but were quickly pulled back
towards the $30.00 level.  A general lack of interest was
revealed by the total volume reading of 344,00 shares, which was
the lowest reading since March 11th.  On Friday the bulls will be
looking for BBOX to break out of the recent tight trading range
(easily visible on the 10-minute chart) and move back towards the
relative highs.  As far as new entries are concerned, traders can
be watching for a move above $31.38 to provide a potential action
point.

Picked on March 19th at $30.86
Results since picked:    -0.61
Earnings Date         05/08/03 (unconfirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MWD     Morgan Stanley             40.05     +0.57
KB      Kookmin Bank               28.81     +1.76
FNF     Fidelity National          34.52     +0.67
VCI     Valassis Comm.             25.25     +0.92
BZH     Beazer Homes               60.47     +0.91
BJ      BJ's Wholesale             10.95     +0.56

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

DV      Devry Inc                  19.90     +1.45
BKS     Barnes & Noble             18.75     +1.16
ENTG    Entegris Inc               11.90     +1.20
SIVB    Silicon Valley Bancshares  18.70     +1.45
NWRE    Neoware System             14.79     +1.04
TLGD    Tollgrade Communication    13.27     +1.04

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

FDX     Fedex Corp                 56.80     +1.62
USAI    USA Interactive            26.88     +2.03
NKE     Nike Inc                   52.85     +2.77
ADBE    Adobe Systems Inc          34.07     +1.05
MGG     MGM Mirage Inc             30.07     +1.07
EXPE    Expedia                    51.69     +4.56

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

DTE     DTE Energy Co              39.06     -1.85
TXT     Textron Inc                28.16     -5.24

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AFFX   Affymetrix Inc              26.82     -1.67
CERN   Cerner Corp                 32.95     -0.98




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