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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 03/25/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 03-25-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Longer and Harder
Market Sentiment: Buying the Dip
Play-of-the-Day:  Ready For Another Leg Higher?

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      03-25-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8280.23 + 65.60  8337.72  8180.72 1.61 bln   2323/ 916
NASDAQ   1391.01 + 21.20  1400.14  1369.32 1.41 bln   2042/1112
S&P 100   444.77 +  5.10   447.56   438.63   Totals   4365/2028
S&P 500   874.74 + 10.51   879.87   862.59
W5000    8279.27 + 98.80  8320.11  8169.61
RUS 2000  371.79 +  4.54   372.22   367.01
DJ TRANS 2202.07 + 18.70  2208.13  2170.38
VIX        32.66 -  2.54    35.14    32.50
VXN        45.00 -  1.36    47.32    43.69
Total Volume 3,313M
Total UpVol  2,727M
Total DnVol    491M
52wk Highs  149
52wk Lows   120
TRIN       0.55
PUT/CALL   0.94
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Longer and Harder

Rumsfeld said the war could be much longer and harder than
previously thought and cautioned Americans from expecting a
quick resolution. The markets rallied on the news, which showed
that severe oversold conditions are more important to traders
than heavy resistance slowing the troops. The news of potential
popular support against Saddam in Basra rallied the markets
but news of a revolt in the US Senate tanked them again.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


The morning started off weak with mixed war news causing
volatility in the futures. After moving sideways for an hour
the bargain hunters from Monday's crash begin to surface and
shorts began to cover. This move was delayed because of the
announcement of the Consumer Confidence at 10:AM.

The Consumer Confidence fell to a decade low of 62.5 and down
from 64.8 in February. The cutoff date for this survey was
March 18th so all responses were before the start of the war
and the negative news about prisoners and causalities. This
would indicate that the next reading could be even worse. The
current conditions and future expectations components were
both down. The expectations component fell to 62.5 and was
the lowest level since January 1991. Does that date sound
familiar? This was the first Gulf war. Buying plans for major
appliances and autos fell to the lowest levels since 1996.
47% of the respondents thought the stock market would move
lower over the next 12 months.

Chain Store Sales rose slightly at +0.1% and it was the fourth
consecutive weekly rise. Sales are still at or below plan for
most stores but rising as milder weather for most of the country
brings consumers out of their houses.

Existing Home Sales fell to 5.84 million from the January
pace of 6.10 million units. The war along with unemployment
is offsetting the low interest rates. The housing sales rate
fell -4% from January but is still a very robust rate given
the conflicting economic and sentiment factors. Since mortgage
rates are not likely to go much lower, existing home sales and
new home sales are fighting an uphill battle. An end to the
war could actually bring higher rates and a steeper hill for
sales to climb.

The NYSE terminated the access privileges for Al-Jazeera News
claiming they were limiting access to the exchange due to
security reasons. Unofficially the reasons were thought to
have been due to the network's war coverage. The NYSE said
the number of accredited TV stations needed to be reduced
and they were limiting access to those with responsible
coverage of business issues.

Early in the day there were reports of an uprising in Basra
against Saddam's troops with towns people fighting the Iraq
troops for control. The sudden prospect of a rapid takeover
of this major city spiked the market off its lows. Late news
tonight has the Iraq military shelling Basra civilians with
mortars and artillery.

There was not much news from the war due to a major sandstorm
in the Southern Iraq region. This shut down all low flying air
support and gave the US time to perform maintenance on their
gear and let supply convoys catch up with the main units.
Troops with their vision cut down to mere feet were free to
hunker down under cover and catch up on some sleep. This is
only a temporary situation. With the lead elements only 60
miles from Baghdad there is going to be even stronger fighting
soon. The Republican Guard is between the coalition and
Baghdad and there is repeated intelligence that they have
been authorized to use chemical weapons when the main fight
starts. There are also 25-45,000 Fedayeen hard liners roaming
southern Iraq using a hit and run strategy as well as using
force to keep regular Iraqi army units from surrendering.
The Republican Guard and the Fedayeen are not going to
surrender and they are going to fight like junk yard dogs
when cornered. Logic and overwhelming force is immaterial
as these groups have no place to go when it is over. If
Saddam is not in power their protection to rape and plunder
will be withdrawn and life could take on a new meaning.

This group was formed by Saddam's son after the first Gulf
war to keep the civilians in line. They recently beheaded
200 women for infidelity and put their heads on poles
around the country as warnings to others. These are going
to be wolves nipping at the side of the columns while the
Republican Guard will be bringing the heavy weapons to
bear on the front. Fortunately air power will eventually
eliminate the Republican Guard but the thousands of Fedayeen,
which were recruited from jails and radical factions, will
not be so easy. There is also news that up to 5,000 Iraqis
who had fled Iraq to avoid Saddam's rule are now coming back
into Iraq to fight AGAINST the coalition and for Iraq. They
don't like Saddam but they feel Iraq should not be ruled by
the coalition. Stockpiles of thousands of brand new Iraqi
chemical weapons suits have been found and recent positions
overrun have been stocked with gas masks. Once a chemical
attack begins things are going to get much worse for the
war sentiment.

The market was struggling at the highs of the day and the
opening levels from Monday at Dow 8335 and Nasdaq 1400 when
news of a Senate revolt hit the markets. The Senate voted
to cut the presidents tax cut package to 50% of the requested
amount of $712 billion. The limit of $350 billion was seen
as a significant limit to the economic recovery and a hit
for the stock market. The package as presented was reported
to have the potential for a +15% market bounce if enacted.
Does cutting it in half only mean we will get a +7% bounce?
If so then the market will eventually discount whatever was
already priced in when the House and Senate gave tentative
approval last week. That approval was part of the motive
force for last weeks rally.

The problems for the market are not over. We gained +1100
points in eight days and gave back -242 this week. The
Nasdaq rallied back to 1400 and strong resistance again.
This was the level that has held for a long time before
last Friday's major move. The failure at this resistance
again is crucial and shows that sellers are still there.
The Nasdaq futures are +3.50 tonight despite RHAT missing
estimates by a penny and PLAB cutting its workforce by
10% to 12%. This shows tech bulls are also alive and well.
There is strong support at 1370 and strong resistance at
1400.

The Dow is more fluid. There is strong resistance at 8330
and strong support at 8130-8175. The bulls appear ready
to sit back and nibble when the averages retreat and the
bears have no conviction to press the attack. The recent
rally has taken the fight out of the bears and the potential
for further gains on any unexpected good news remains.
They do not want to step in front of the gun even if they
think it is empty.

This leave us with a stalemate. There is no concrete reason
for a continued rally. Economics are terrible. Earnings are
terrible. The war is likely to get worse before it gets
better but everybody is conditioned to think there is still
going to be a rally in our future. Why or when continues
to be the question and of course how far. Just getting
back to the recent highs at 8500 is going to take a huge
effort and there are no shorts left to squeeze. The bears
may be getting ready to hibernate after a three year run.
However, the bulls are still bloated from their recent feast
and are not ready for another romp. The result is a likely
stalemate until the end of quarter window dressing begins.
That buying could begin at any time. What is it going to be?
War jitters, chemical attacks, hundreds more casualties or
the wrath of fund holders against funds not fully invested.
This is going to be another confusing week governed by news
and greed. Sounds like business as usual to me.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


================
Market Sentiment
================

Buying the Dip
by Steven Price

After the disappointment over some weekend military setbacks wore
off, the broader markets made up some of Monday's sell-off and
seemed to indicate that the bullish reversal we saw last week
might have some staying power.  It is hard to rely on the
technical indicators in a news-driven environment, but so far
they have been reliable.

After a Dow gain of 100 points in eight sessions, some pullback
was expected, although Monday's 300 point Dow drop certainly
raised some flags as to just how much conviction the bulls had.
Tuesday's rebound back through some significant barriers that
were broken last week indicates that the conviction is still
strong. Last week we cleared out bearish resistance on the point
and figure charts and today's intraday  rally took us back
through those former resistance levels, indicating that the bears
that might have defended them are no longer trying to pick a top.

Part of the reason behind the rally was an uprising by the Shiite
majority in Basra against Saddam Hussein's forces. Apparently
Hussein's troops are shooting at Iraqi citizens trying to leave
the area, according to Donald Rumsfeld.  It could be a turning
point in the war, as Iraqi citizens take up arms against that
country's military and create more problems for Iraqi troops, as
well as more evidence that Hussein is losing control of the
citizenry. Oil prices spiked again this morning, however fell off
on the news of the Basra uprising, mirroring (inversely) the mid-
day rally in equities.  The May Crude Oil contract finished the
day up only 0.42 at $28.42 per barrel, after jumping as high as
$29.69.

This morning's economic data was better than expected, but not by
much.  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to
yet another 10-year low ahead of the military conflict in Iraq.
It dropped from 64.8 in February to 62.5 in March.   The cutoff
date for the survey was March 18, so it failed to measure the
response to the progress of the war and we may have to wait for
Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment release to get
a feel for how consumer's feel.  The U of M is smaller, but more
weighted to consumers than businesses and might give us a feel
for how willing consumers are to spend. It is also based on
telephone surveys that include results from this week. The weak
job market no doubt helped lead to the drop in Confidence and the
expectations portion of the report fell to its lowest level since
January 1991. The number of respondents saying jobs are hard to
get rose from 30% to 32.3% and suggests a correlative
unemployment rate of 6.5%. The present situation component fell
to its lowest level since December 1993. Still, it was slightly
better than expected and helped give the markets a boost. The
head of consumer research for the Conference board said a quick
victory , "would certainly ease some of the uncertainties facing
consumers, (but) it is the economic fundamentals that will
determine whether a rebound is sustainable."  The Rasmussen
economic confidence index, which is separate from the Conference
Board's report, showed an impressive increase in confidence in
the past week, with an increase from 89.9 to 108.2.

Existing home sales have also pulled back from January's pace.
While the decline was expected, the sales dropped 4.3% to an
adjusted 5.84 million. The February pace was still higher than it
was a year ago and slightly better than expectations for a drop
to 5.78 million homes.  With mortgage rates expected to increase
throughout the year, the rate may continue to decline. The report
from the National Association of Realtors measures closings, so
it is a lagging indicator of sales.  The Midwest was the
strongest region, with a gain of 4.8%, while sales fell in the
Northeast, West and South.  Although I have yet to personally
hear about anything but a declining market, the national median
home price rose to $161,000, which is 8% higher than a year ago.
Mortgage payments as a percentage of income also dropped to 17.4%
in January - the lowest level in four years. Merrill Lynch cut
its investment rating for several homebuilders, saying,  "Several
economic issues could make things tougher on industry
participants over the next year or two." it didn't cut the entire
group, but said it was time to start differentiating between
homebuilding stocks.  Downgraded were Beazer Homes (BZH), and KB
Home (KBH).

By the end of the day, the rally had faded.  Part of that failure
was likely due to the Senate's vote to cut the President's tax
cut plan in half. Less economic stimulus could mean less spending
and also possibly less of a cut to the dividend tax.

Looking at support and resistance levels, we pulled back to OEX
438, which is in the neighborhood of the 440 level that has been
pivotal in the past on numerous occasions.  The 50% retracement
of the August high to October low also comes in at 437 and that
is exactly where we bounced last week on Wednesday and Thursday.
Keep an eye on a break below OEX 437 for an indication that a
rollover may have further to fall.  However, as long as we remain
above that level, it appears that the market's move over the past
two weeks has left us at higher ground. Of course, the war events
will continue to dictate how we trade from here, but for the
moment, that OEX range appears to be the key technical level to
watch.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8280

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8114
 50-dma: 8049
200-dma: 8427

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  875

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  858
 50-dma:  852
200-dma:  891

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1734
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1067

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1055
 50-dma: 1009
200-dma:  992
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX):  The SOX got a small bounce today,
coming within three points of support at its simple 200-dma at
312.97 beforehand.   More important for traders looking at long
plays may be the exponential 200-dma sitting at 337 that capped
Friday's rally.  A move through either of these averages could
signal continuation in whichever direction the break occurs, but
the highs on Friday and Monday show that the 200-ema is once
again spoiling the party as it did in December, with two failures
at that level before a big rollover. The simple 200-dma hadn't
been tested closely since last year and apparently the break
through it wasn't as significant as the litmus test at the 200-
ema.

52-week High: 393
52-week Low : 214
Current:      322

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 301
 50-dma: 292
 200-dma: 312
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX continues to seek out new relative lows, giving us
bullish equity confirmation now that we are below the 34% level.
There is light support at 29-30% that could signal an equity
pullback, but the major support comes in at 26%.  If we approach
that 26% level, tighten your stops on bullish plays, because the
party could end there.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 32.66 -2.54
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 45.00 -1.36
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.94        528,912       497,710
Equity Only    0.84        422,752       354,817
OEX            0.96         16,071        15,497
QQQ            3.43         19,052        65,328
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          40.4    + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    49.0    + 1     Bull Alert
Dow Indust.   40.0    + 0     Bull Alert
S&P 500       41.4    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       43.0    + 0     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.53
10-Day Arms Index  1.09
21-Day Arms Index  1.44
55-Day Arms Index  1.35

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       2097            763
NASDAQ     1953           1042

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        53               39
NASDAQ      66               40

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,584
NASDAQ     1,401
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/18/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added 43,000 long contracts, while adding only
5,000 shorts.  Small traders took a reverse approach,
adding 15,000 longs and 51,000 shorts.  Small traders,
however, came into the period much longer.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)
03/04/03      426,053   472,492   (46,439)   (5.2%)
03/11/03      440,688   485,938   (45,250)   (4.9%)
03/18/03      483,224   490,582   ( 7,358)   (0.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: (  7,358) -  3/21/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%
03/04/03      164,759    98,636    66,123     25.1%
03/11/03      169,450   102,631    66,819     24.6%
03/18/03      184,907   153,400    31,507      9.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  31,507 - 3/21/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials mirrored the action in the S&P, adding 15,000
longs, to only 8,000 shorts.  Small traders also emulated
their counterparts, adding 10,000 longs, but 17,000 shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)
03/04/03       39,934     52,978   (13,044) (14.0%)
03/11/03       43,641     56,020   (12,379) (12.4%)
03/18/03       58,877     64,302   ( 5,425) ( 4.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02


Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%
03/04/03       24,240     8,038    16,202    50.2%
03/11/03       27,196     9,674    17,522    47.5%
03/18/03       37,097    26,951    10,146    15.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added 5,000 long contracts and 4,000 shorts,
staying relatively unchanged on their net.  Small traders
added 1,000 long contracts and only 600 shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%
03/04/03       21,326    12,724    8,602      25.3%
03/11/03       21,726    14,370    7,356      20.4%
03/18/03       26,880    18,853    8,027      17.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%)
03/04/03        5,233     8,075    (2,842)   (21.4%)
03/11/03        5,549     7,727    (2,178)   (16.4%)
03/18/03        6,589     8,343    (1,754)   (11.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((new BULLISH tech play))
===============

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 31.67 change: +1.12 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Founded in 1982, Adobe Systems Incorporated the leader in network
publishing, offers a comprehensive line of software for
enterprise and creative professional customers. Its products
enable customers to create, manage and deliver visually rich,
compelling and reliable content. Based in San Jose, Calif., Adobe
is one of the world's largest software companies. (source:
company press release)

Why We Like It:
The past two weeks have been pretty eventful for shareholders of
ADBE.  The stock found buyers ahead Adobe's earnings announcement
on March 13th and moved through the 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day
moving averages.  The improving technical picture provided a
fitting prelude to the quarterly report, which included a net
profit that was three cents better than consensus estimates.  The
Company also said it had seen stronger-than-expected sales in
February.  Those positive results prompted a slew of bullish
brokerage comments the following morning, including an increased
profit outlook from Piper Jaffray.  ADBE gapped higher in
reaction to the news, leaving previous resistance near $29.25 in
the dust.  Shares also moved above psychological resistance at
$30.00.  In the days that followed ADBE marched its way up to a
multi-month high of $34.27.  It wasn't until last Friday, when WR
Hambrecht reduced the stock's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," that
widespread profit-taking began to take place.

The subsequent sell-off has set up what we think is a buying
opportunity.  On Monday ADBE successfully tested the $30.00
level.  Today's session saw the stock outpace the NASDAQ with a
3.6% gain.  There are also some interesting developments going on
in the software index.  Following a steep decline from the 111
area, the GSO.X has stabilized above the 200-dma at 101.45.
Further consolidation above that moving average would set the
stage for a rally back to the relative highs.  With both ADBE and
the GSO.X holding above support, we think odds are good that the
stock will continue to retrace its recent losses.  Our initial
target for this play is the $36-$37 region, which looks like
congestion on the daily chart dating back to last May/June.  Yes,
that's a bit optimistic because it assumes that ADBE will be able
to move above its relative highs.  Shorter-term traders might
want to aim for a test of last week's high at $34.27.  We'll
enter this hypothetical trade if ADBE trades at or above $32.01.
Stop placement in this case is fairly straightforward, because a
violation of support at $30.00 would be a negative technical
development.  If the play is activated we'll use a stop at
$29.88, one cent under the March 14th low.  Looking for an
alternate entry strategy?  Should ADBE head lower with the market
on Wednesday or Thursday, a pullback to $30.00 might also present
a buying opportunity.

Annotated daily chart - ADBE:


Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         03/13/03 (confirmed)







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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 03-25-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:     ADBE
  Closed Bullish Plays:  MXIM, NCR

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  BBY, TBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  T

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     BBOX

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 31.67 change: +1.12 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Founded in 1982, Adobe Systems Incorporated the leader in network
publishing, offers a comprehensive line of software for
enterprise and creative professional customers. Its products
enable customers to create, manage and deliver visually rich,
compelling and reliable content. Based in San Jose, Calif., Adobe
is one of the world's largest software companies. (source:
company press release)

Why We Like It:
The past two weeks have been pretty eventful for shareholders of
ADBE.  The stock found buyers ahead Adobe's earnings announcement
on March 13th and moved through the 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day
moving averages.  The improving technical picture provided a
fitting prelude to the quarterly report, which included a net
profit that was three cents better than consensus estimates.  The
Company also said it had seen stronger-than-expected sales in
February.  Those positive results prompted a slew of bullish
brokerage comments the following morning, including an increased
profit outlook from Piper Jaffray.  ADBE gapped higher in
reaction to the news, leaving previous resistance near $29.25 in
the dust.  Shares also moved above psychological resistance at
$30.00.  In the days that followed ADBE marched its way up to a
multi-month high of $34.27.  It wasn't until last Friday, when WR
Hambrecht reduced the stock's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," that
widespread profit-taking began to take place.

The subsequent sell-off has set up what we think is a buying
opportunity.  On Monday ADBE successfully tested the $30.00
level.  Today's session saw the stock outpace the NASDAQ with a
3.6% gain.  There are also some interesting developments going on
in the software index.  Following a steep decline from the 111
area, the GSO.X has stabilized above the 200-dma at 101.45.
Further consolidation above that moving average would set the
stage for a rally back to the relative highs.  With both ADBE and
the GSO.X holding above support, we think odds are good that the
stock will continue to retrace its recent losses.  Our initial
target for this play is the $36-$37 region, which looks like
congestion on the daily chart dating back to last May/June.  Yes,
that's a bit optimistic because it assumes that ADBE will be able
to move above its relative highs.  Shorter-term traders might
want to aim for a test of last week's high at $34.27.  We'll
enter this hypothetical trade if ADBE trades at or above $32.01.
Stop placement in this case is fairly straightforward, because a
violation of support at $30.00 would be a negative technical
development.  If the play is activated we'll use a stop at
$29.88, one cent under the March 14th low.  Looking for an
alternate entry strategy?  Should ADBE head lower with the market
on Wednesday or Thursday, a pullback to $30.00 might also present
a buying opportunity.

Annotated daily chart - ADBE:


Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         03/13/03 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - cls: 38.75 chg: +0.25 stop: 38.11

Yesterday's NASDAQ sell-off didn't leave this play with much
margin for error.  MXIM moved lower with the semiconductor index
(SOX.X), retracing the previous three sessions of gains.  Shares
stabilized and moved back towards the $39.00 level on Tuesday,
but not before some morning selling resulted in a violation of
our stop at $38.11.  This play was closed for a loss of 5.3%.
Investors may have been reacting to Fulcrum's initiation of a
non-committal "neutral" rating on MXIM.  There was also some
early weakness in the SOX that dissipated when the bears failed
to push through support in the 316-317 region.  What initially
attracted us to this stock was the way shares had moved above
resistance at $40.00.  What we're looking at now is a possible
rollover from that level, with reversing action in the MACD and
daily stochastics (5,3,3) bolstering the technical case for
short-term bears.  Of course these days technicals often take a
backseat to the latest news out of Iraq, and if the NASDAQ gets a
war-related pop we'd expect MXIM to follow suit.  Traders still
long may want to use a stop just under today's low of $37.50.

Picked on March 21st at $40.26
Results since picked:    -2.15
Earnings Date         04/30/03 (unconfirmed)




---

NCR Corp. - NCR - close: 19.10 change: +0.28 stop: *text*

Shucks!  We really wanted to give NCR a chance.  Friday's
breakout above resistance at $20.00 and the corresponding double-
top p-n-f buy signal were compelling technical signs that shares
could retrace the January losses and move towards the $23-$25
area.  But alas, yesterday's tech sell-off threw a wrench in our
plans.  It was one thing to see NCR relinquish the $20.00 level -
that could be expected on a day when the overall market was
experiencing heavy selling.  But what was particularly concerning
for the bulls is the fact that shares also underperformed the
NASDAQ with a hefty 6.1% loss.  This took NCR below its 50-dma,
whole-number support at $19.00, and last Thursday's low of
$18.80.  The proverbial "nail in the coffin" for this play was
today's trading.  The stock continued to show relative weakness
versus the NASDAQ, once again closing below the 50-dma.  The
bearish action this week is an indication that the breakout above
$20.00 may have been a head-fake.  As such, we've decided to
close this un-triggered play.  We still like NCR as a long
candidate on a breakout above the January 23rd high ($20.32), but
at this point it looks like NCR may see some additional
consolidation under that level.

Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx <- see text
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/18/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Best Buy Co - BBY - close: 30.37 change: +1.32 stop: 27.99

Whoa...What a roller-coaster ride!  It's been a wild couple of
days for Best Buy.  The stock traded strong during the latter
part of last week.  Those gains took BBY to a new relative high
of $31.23.  But investors were much less willing to buy on
Monday, when U.S. casualties and reports of heavy resistance in
Iraq raised the specter that the war might last longer than many
had expected.  Shares gapped lower and quickly retested short-
term support in the $29.00 region, ultimately finishing with a
loss of more than 6%.  After the market closed, Deutsche Bank
Securities issued some comments that would have a major impact on
today's trading.  The firm said that "consumer electronics
retailers are faced with declining gross margins...as well as
increased competition from mass merchants and discounters."
That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of the sub-sector.
However, DB also issued a "buy" rating on BBY.  Their analysts
seem to think that out of all the major players in the consumer
electronics businesses, Best Buy is the company that's most
likely to weather the industry-wide fundamental weakness.
Deutsche Bank's positive comments had the bears second-guessing
themselves on Tuesday morning.  The stock started moving higher
at the opening bell, a full hour before the Dow Jones showed
signs of firming up.  Shares continued to advance as they moved
into the Monday morning gap.  When all was said and done, BBY had
gained 4.5% and recovered a large chunk of the previous session's
losses.  This strong performance suggests that a retest of the
relative highs might be forthcoming.  However, targeting new
entries at this point is a bit of a tricky proposition because
all the volatility has left the bulls with no clear action
points.  A move above today's high ($30.65) might provide a
chance to enter long positions, but remember that possible
resistance looms overhead at the relative highs.  Some traders
may want to use a stop-loss just below the rising 21-dma
($28.70).  Our stop remains set at $27.99.  In other recent news,
Best Buy has confirmed that their fourth-quarter earnings
announcement will take place on April 1st.

Picked on March 18th at $30.50
Gain since picked:       -0.13
Earnings Date         04/01/03 (confirmed)




---

Timberland Co. - TBL - close: 41.68 change: +0.64 stop: 38.74

We're really pleased with the way TBL keeps bouncing from support
in the $40.50-$41.00 region.  On Monday the broader market
weakness dragged Timberland down from its relative highs.  The
majority of the selling came during the first hour of trading.
Shares stabilized near $41.00 as the session progressed, even
while Dow Jones continued to drift lower.  With today's rising
market action providing a more favorable climate for the bulls,
TBL was able to retrace a portion of the Monday morning sell-off.
Shares finished with a 1.5% gain, showing good relative strength
versus the Dow.  That's an encouraging sign for this play.  Bears
will point out that both the MACD and daily stochastics are
reversing from overbought levels.  However, the price action thus
far isn't following the oscillators lower.  Another day or two of
gains would help to avoid a bearish crossover on the MACD.
Conservative traders can continue to use a stop slightly below
$40.00, while those looking to enter new long positions can watch
for another pullback to $41.00.

Picked on March 14th at $40.81
Results since picked:    +0.87
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

AT&T - T - close: 16.86 change: +0.23 stop: 17.36

AT&T's tepid performance on Friday seemed to portend further
weakness in shares of the telecom giant.  The stock only managed
a 1% gain during the huge market rally, so it would stand to
reason that T would lead the way lower during Monday's painful
307-point Dow sell-off.  But as many veteran traders can attest,
the market has a way of crushing expectations.  T was the
strongest Dow stock on Monday with a loss of only 1.1%.  Shares
did trade a new short-term low, but never approached whole-number
support at $16.00.  We could not track down any news to explain
this relative strength.  As a matter of fact, the Supreme Court
declined on Monday to review a lower court decision regarding
rules that force companies such as T to share their networks with
competitors at wholesale prices.  This could be seen as a
negative development for AT&T.  Investors also ignored news that
SBC's debt rating had been downgraded by Moody's.  Today's action
saw T butt its head against the $17.00 level after breaking out
of its recent downtrend (most easily visible on a 15-minute
chart).  A breakout above $17.00 might send the stock towards its
relative highs and the descending 21-dma at $17.35.  But will T
be able to extend its recent gains if the Dow continues to hold
below its 100-dma at 8317?  We doubt it.  And if the Industrials
break short-term support at 8180, T could quickly return to the
$16.30 area.  Of course the market's direction is largely
dependent on the latest developments in the war on Iraq.  Given
the geo-political uncertainty and AT&T's hazy technical outlook,
we are not advising new entries at this time.

Picked on March 21st at $16.48
Results since picked:    -0.38
Earnings Date         04/24/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Black Box Corp - BBOX - close: 30.16 change: +0.34 stop: 28.69

There is not too much new to report on BBOX unless you're
interested in hearing more about the shareholder lawsuits that
pop up whenever a stock gaps down like BBOX did.  The rally
attempt to fill the gap has been turned sideways.  Shares
continue to consolidate around the $30 mark.  We're going to keep
our stop at $28.69 but more conservative traders could bump their
stop up to $29.00 or even $29.25, which was today's low.  We'll
continue to monitor the action but there is not any need to rush
into a long position.  The company has obvious earnings problems
and the traditional "fill the gap" action may be slow in coming.
If you are the type of trader that likes to move in with momentum
then wait and look for BBOX to trade back above the $31 mark.

Picked on March 19th at $30.86
Results since picked:    -0.70
Earnings Date         05/08/03 (unconfirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TRI     Triad Hospitals            27.34     +1.54

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

NFLX    Netflix Inc                19.25     +1.25
UNM     Unumprovident Corp          9.91     +1.58
ENDP    Endo Pharmaceuticals       12.52     +1.71
GSOF    Group 1 Software           18.24     +1.98
CYH     Community Health Sys.      19.00     +1.50

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TRI     Triad Hospitals            27.34     +1.54
GRMN    Garmin Ltd                 36.89     +2.44
AGN     Allergan Inc               70.30     +2.08
VAR     Varian Medical Sys.        54.60     +2.74
FLO     Flowers Foods              26.49     +1.45

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CEPH    Cephalon Inc               41.06     -1.19
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svc.   45.15     -1.58
AXP     American Express           35.26     -1.09
STK     Storage Tech.              20.50     -1.05
CB      Chubb Corp                 45.73     -1.62
CUM     Cummings Inc               24.84     -1.55

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CHDN    Churchills Downs           35.22     -1.01
PPL     PPL Corp                   34.97     -0.88
SUN     Sunoco Inc                 36.22     -0.77




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