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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/27/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-27-2003
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Danger Zone
Play-of-the-Day:  On the Skids
Market Sentiment: Weary or Confused?


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************
      03-27-2003           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     8201.45 - 28.40  8251.80  8104.05 1.46 bln 1696/1518
NASDAQ   1384.25 -  3.20  1392.46  1369.31 1.41 bln 1584/1554
S&P 100   441.01 -  1.06   444.14   435.95   Totals 3280/3072
S&P 500   868.52 -  1.43   874.15   858.09
W5000    8224.04 -  8.80  8270.38  8128.09
RUS 2000  369.50 +  1.32   369.73   365.09
DJ TRANS 2183.05 - 20.80  2203.15  2169.09
VIX        32.15 -  0.01    33.94    31.50
VXN        43.87 -  0.07    45.62    43.67
Total Volume 3.107B
Total UpVol  1,294B
Total DnVol  1,716M
52wk Highs  142
52wk Lows   126
TRIN       1.43
PUT/CALL   0.79
*************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Danger Zone

Multiple comments from various levels of the administration
as well as arm chair generals all say the war is entering a
dangerous period as the battle for Baghdad is about to begin.
This approach to the danger zone around Iraq pushed the Dow
to the danger zone around 8100. Fortunately both the Dow and
the Marines managed to avoid a disaster for one more day.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


The day started off with a serious drop on news in the
Washington Post that the war could take months and we were
about to see many more casualties. The Dow dropped -120 at
the open but managed to recover to positive territory by
mid afternoon. Traders kept asking why with economics still
getting worse.

The Jobless Claims fell to 402,000 but that is still the
6th week over 400K and still showing a contraction in the
labor market. The four-week moving average fell slightly to
423,000. Continuing claims fell to 3.521 million but remain
at levels higher than the 1990 recession. With the potential
for a multi month war this puts even more pressure on
employers to trim the workforce until conditions improve.
The Help Wanted Index for February fell back to 40 and only
one point from its cyclical low set in December. The lack
of hiring is shown in the lack of advertising. The ManPower
survey shows weakness continuing through the 2Q and saw
no hiring anywhere but Salt Lake City. According to the
survey there is expected to be some small gains in late
2003 but no major expansion until 2004.

We saw the impact of this unemployment rate on Wednesday
when Sears underwent plastic surgery to remove a major
pain in the neck. They announced they were selling their
credit card business and would be taking offers. They
are seeing a 20% charge off rate on their existing accounts.
That is 1 in 5 accounts. Think times are not tough?

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell into negative
territory again with only one positive month since last
July. The index fell to -0.62 from +0.53 last month. This
was due to drops in industrial production and a drop in
employment by -308,000 jobs. There is beginning to be more
fear that the economy is slipping back into recession. The
4Q GDP was finalized at a +1.4% annualized growth rate and
the first quarter is not shaping up to be a strong quarter
either. Many economists feel a multi month war will push
growth in the 2Q into negative territory. The big drop in
spending for durable goods, autos and now houses is now
mushrooming into a serious problem.

Part of the rally last week was attributed to the drop
in oil prices once the southern Iraq oil fields were
under coalition control. Prices fell to near $27 but
today prices were back to $30.37 due to instability in
Nigera, low inventory levels and the prospect of having
Iraq's production off line for months. Also a factor is
the massive use of fuel in the war. One defense dept
spokesman said the coalition is using the equivalent of
seven million barrels of oil a day. The front line ground
forces in Iraq are using one million gallons of diesel
and gasoline a day with all other ground forces using
another six million gallons. The fuel for the front line
combat troops has to be trucked up to 300 miles from
Kuwait. The tankers offload it and then make the return
trip to reload. The roads are cross-country in most cases
and not paved. Not a fun job. If the price of oil remains
over $30 the price premium will be extracted from the
stock market again.

Oil is not the only thing going up. Mortgage rates are
rising off their lows and with them the refi door is
closing. We saw new home sales drop this week -8.1%
and existing home sales fall -4.3% on Tuesday. This
does not bode well for any economic recovery. The big
hiss you hear is the air leaving the housing bubble.

Gold also rose today as Middle East investors took
delivery and began moving the actual gold to safer
climates. The anti US feelings are prompting the move
as well as fear of confiscation. When the US froze
Iraqi assets last week it put some fear into Arab holders
that their assets could be next. Since some inventory
gold is "loaned" to traders the removal of the actual
commodity from circulation forces traders to cover
elsewhere.

The markets slide into the early March lows was due
in part to the third consecutive month of outflows
according to ICI today. They said there was -$11.1
billion in equity fund outflows in February. At the
same time there was +$17.8 billion inflows into bond
funds. It appears there are a lot of traders expecting
more market troubles ahead.

A new threat to the market is coming from the new virus
out of Asia. The CDC says there are over 1700 confirmed
cases and probably thousands that have not yet been
diagnosed. It is spreading quickly and the Asian
economy is already suffering. Retail sales are down -2%
due to consumers not wanting to be in crowds. Hotel
bookings are down -5 to -7% and airline bookings have
dropped as much as -20% to Asian countries. Adding this
drop in commerce to the war impact and the global
loss could be substantial. DB has already predicted a
drop of -0.5% to the GDP of the Hong Kong area. The Asian
economies were not robust to begin with and a ramp in
the number of diagnosed cases could slow it even further.

In the US the major problem impacting Thursday's market
was the realization that the war could take months and
casualties could run in the multi thousands. I reported
a couple days ago a conversation by several analysts
with casualty estimates in the low range of 5,000 to
7,000 and a high range of 17,000 with no coordinated
surrender. Considering how the market reacted to the
deaths and capture in the last week they are not going
to react well to multiple hundreds killed in this and
that battle once the real war starts. There has only
been light resistance to this point. Saddam knew we
were coming and pulled all his major forces back to
the 50 miles around Baghdad. In war standards we have
not seen anything yet. Americans are spoiled by the
limited casualties in 1991 and the prospects for a
video game war. This is not it. Saddam has three times
more men on the ground than we do and air power can
only do so much once we get into the populated areas.
Americans are spoiled to instant gratification and
once they see it is not instant and not painless the
odds are good the market will reflect this change in
sentiment.

The Dow tested strong support at 8100 this morning
and came through with flying colors. The rebound
off 8100 powered the Dow from -120 to +22 by late
afternoon but the external forces were too strong.
We had a news release late in the afternoon that the
Iraqis were shooting down more missiles, drones and
helicopters than we had anticipated. Al-Jazzera ran
film of a downed drone and another downed helicopter
and the market tanked. According to the US military
it was the same helicopter from last week but they
admitted they had lost several drones. With Russian
and Iranian companies selling them antiaircraft and
antitank missiles it appears the odds are more evenly
matched than we thought. That news put more fear into
traders about the eventual human cost. Rumsfeld was
on TV numerous times with the longer, harder, costlier
war message and that did not help either. Still the
Dow managed a very respectable rebound from strong
support.

The Nasdaq tried valiantly to retest 1400 again but
fell short. The Russell was the only major index to
finish in the green. The markets are expected to drift
down overnight with problems in the Japanese banking
system. The fourth largest Japanese bank announced
after the close yesterday that they would lose money
for the third year in a row and a group of eight
largest banks would lose trillions of yen in 2003.
This was seen as pressure on the Nikkei for Friday
trading. This is the year-end in Japan and traders
felt there would not be any major selling until Tuesday.

That same scenario is alive and well in the US markets
and could have been instrumental in providing the big
rebound. We are only celebrating the end of a quarter
but funds still dress up their statements with a few
well placed buys. However, according to the Stock
Traders Almanac recent March trends have not been
exciting. Fear of April selling seems to be keeping
funds in the conservative arena. Another factor that
might keep funds from making a bull run is the recent
rally. They could have loaded up last week to avoid
missing the train and with negative fund flows have
no cash left for the actual month end. More likely
Friday support will come from shorts going flat before
the weekend to avoid any Saddam removal announcement.
Trade what you see not what you think.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor


===============
Play-of-the-Day   (New BEARISH Active Trader/non-tech play)
===============

Cooper Tire - CTB - close: 12.52 change: -0.49 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, with headquarters in Findlay, Ohio,
specializes in the manufacture and marketing of automotive products
including auto, motorcycle and truck tires, inner tubes, tread rubber
and equipment. Cooper-Standard Automotive is an original equipment
supplier of sealing, trim, NVH control systems and fluid handling
systems for the automotive industry in North America, Europe,
Australia and South America. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It's all about demand - or in Cooper's case, lack thereof.
Shares of the tire company have been trending lower for more than
two months amid concerns of weakening sales and production cuts
at the largest automotive companies.  Shares of Ford (F), General
Motors (GM), and DaimlerChrysler (DCX) are all trading near long-
term lows.  Their fundamental problems have ground the entire
industry to a halt.  Not surprisingly, the DJUSTR Dow Jones tire
index (yes, there's actually an index for tires) is sitting near
all-time lows at 26.08 after falling from the 2002 highs at 90.
In its latest earnings report on February 6th, Cooper's CEO
underscored the challenges facing tire-makers, saying that
"demand appears to be soft, especially in comparison to the
strong first quarter of 2002."  The strong demand in 2002 was
largely fueled by the interest-free financing that the auto
companies offered in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.
Unfortunately for investors that strategy only gave the auto
group a temporary pop.  Many analysts don't anticipate a
sustainable recovery until the overall economy sees some real
improvement.  Providing vivid evidence of the sector-wide
challenges, General Motors reported earlier this month that its
February U.S. sales fell by 19%.

On March 17th JP Morgan issued a sweeping downgrade of several
automotive stocks (including CTB), saying that it anticipated
larger-than-expected industry production cuts.  The timing of
these comments was fortuitous for bulls, because the downgrade
occurred during the huge market rally that began on March 12th.
But now that the widespread bullishness has faded, the awful
fundamentals are once again taking their toll on the sector.  In
sharp contrast to the Dow, CTB has actually retraced its entire
mid-March rally.  The stock underperformed the market on Thursday
with a 3.7% decline.  This loss took shares within range of
critical long-term support in the $12.25-$12.35 region.  A
violation of that level could put Cooper on a crash course with
the next area of psychological support at $10.00.  We'll kick
this play off with a profit-target at $10.06.  Some traders may
want to aim for a test of the 2001 low at $10.55.  In order to
confirm a breakdown, we will not enter this play until CTB trades
at or below $12.24.  If the paper trade is activated we'll use a
stop at $13.11.  On a final technical note, point-and-figure
chartists will be interested to see that a trade at $12.00 would
produce a spread-triple sell signal.

Annotated weekly chart - CTB:


Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/19/03 (unconfirmed)





================
Market Sentiment
================

Weary or Confused?
- OI staff

Weary or Confused?  Market sentiment may be best classified as
mixed with traders not sure where to focus their attention.
Should investors continue to trade based the clearly fading signs
in the economy or the white-knuckled stories coming out of the
media blitz on Iraq?

There is plenty for them to focus on regarding the economy.
Jobless claims continue to run high and there's no signs that
employers are beginning to hire again.  Especially not with the
threat of a multi-month war looming on the horizon.  Should such
an event come to pass it will likely keep consumer spending to a
minimum.  Add to the mix that mortgage rates may not fall any
farther and investors have to consider a slowing home sales
market.  This could seriously impact the consumer durables
spending we have seen and would have a direct influence on this
country's GDP.

Also affecting the investor psyche was the rally in crude again.
This last year has been volatile for the group with the
Venezuelan oil crisis, the war premium based on the Iraqi
conflict being run up and then deflated, and finally new concerns
over Nigera.  Yes, that's right.  Nigerian oil production has
been cut nearly in half as ethnic clashes have forced companies
to slow or shutdown production facilities.  There are already
rumors of a cease-fire in the region but crude oil contracts for
May continued to climb and ended the day at $30.37, +1.74.

So far this stream of stories has been negative for investor
sentiment but the markets merely traded sideways - as if they
were merely consolidating some of last week's big gains.  Could
this be a sign of strength?  Not so fast!  The sideways action in
the markets today is probably being affected by the end of the
quarter close and most mutual funds tend to do some window
dressing for their statements to send to clients.  There are a
number of equities that have been able to maintain some of the
gains and money managers might stick their toe in the water to
make it look as if they owned those stocks prior to last week's
big rally.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8201

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8220
 50-dma: 8025
200-dma: 8413

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  869

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  869
 50-dma:  850
200-dma:  889

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1573
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1062

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1068
 50-dma: 1008
200-dma:  992
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The markets are definitely not seeing any real "fear" as both
the VIX and the VXN have dropped to new relative lows considering
the last several weeks.  The major tops in the Dow Industrials
back in December and January occurred when the VIX was near 26.
We're not even close to 26 but that doesn't mean the markets
can not experience more weakness.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 32.15 -0.01
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 43.87 -0.07
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.79        428,847       338,271
Equity Only    0.63        321,184       201,839
OEX            0.90         20,811        18,645
QQQ            0.83         27,104        22,423
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          40.6    + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    49.0    + 0     Bull Alert
Dow Indust.   40.0    + 0     Bull Alert
S&P 500       41.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       43.0    + 0     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.78
10-Day Arms Index  1.23
21-Day Arms Index  1.48
55-Day Arms Index  1.37


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1512           1319
NASDAQ     1525           1473

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        53               37
NASDAQ      90               39

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,445
NASDAQ     1,398
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/18/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added 43,000 long contracts, while adding only 5,000
shorts.  Small traders took a reverse approach, adding 15,000
longs and 51,000 shorts.  Small traders, however, came into the
period much longer.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/25/03      424,276   482,476   (58,200)   (6.4%)
03/04/03      426,053   472,492   (46,439)   (5.2%)
03/11/03      440,688   485,938   (45,250)   (4.9%)
03/18/03      483,224   490,582   ( 7,358)   (0.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: (  7,358) -  3/21/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03      157,790    91,083    66,707     26.8%
03/04/03      164,759    98,636    66,123     25.1%
03/11/03      169,450   102,631    66,819     24.6%
03/18/03      184,907   153,400    31,507      9.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  31,507 - 3/21/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials mirrored the action in the S&P, adding 15,000 longs,
to only 8,000 shorts.  Small traders also emulated their
counterparts, adding 10,000 longs, but 17,000 shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03       38,787     51,745   (12,958) (14.3%)
03/04/03       39,934     52,978   (13,044) (14.0%)
03/11/03       43,641     56,020   (12,379) (12.4%)
03/18/03       58,877     64,302   ( 5,425) ( 4.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03       25,378     7,431    17,947    54.7%
03/04/03       24,240     8,038    16,202    50.2%
03/11/03       27,196     9,674    17,522    47.5%
03/18/03       37,097    26,951    10,146    15.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added 5,000 long contracts and 4,000 shorts,
staying relatively unchanged on their net.  Small traders
added 1,000 long contracts and only 600 shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/25/03       19,985    11,866    8,119      25.5%
03/04/03       21,326    12,724    8,602      25.3%
03/11/03       21,726    14,370    7,356      20.4%
03/18/03       26,880    18,853    8,027      17.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/25/03        4,872     8,723    (3,851)   (28.3%)
03/04/03        5,233     8,075    (2,842)   (21.4%)
03/11/03        5,549     7,727    (2,178)   (16.4%)
03/18/03        6,589     8,343    (1,754)   (11.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-27-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  ADBE

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     CTB
  Bullish Play Updates:  BBY, TBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  T

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  BBOX

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 31.50 change: -0.45 stop: 29.88

This long play was activated on Wednesday afternoon when ADBE
popped its head above $32.00.  The stock posted a gain for the
session and outperformed the GSO.X software index, despite
receiving a reiterated "Sell" rating from Deutsche Securities.
This morning's action saw Adobe trace a higher low before the
NASDAQ's intraday uptrend pushed shares back towards the $32.00
level.  Shares maxed out at $32.16 (which was also yesterday's
high) and finished with a 1.4% loss.  Just as the bears are
fighting hard to defend the $32.00 region, the NASDAQ is also
struggling to break above its own overhead resistance at 1400.
The index has been trading in the 30-point range for the duration
of the week, with the 100-dma at 1370 providing consistent
support.  Thus far the Composite has done a good job of
maintaining its mid-March gains - even while a rapid U.S. victory
in Iraq becomes more and more unlikely.  A breakout above 1400
would create an ideal climate for a continued uptrend in ADBE.
This play's stop-loss is set at $29.88.  More aggressive traders
may want to use a stop just below the rising 21-dma at $29.38.
New entries can be evaluated on move above $32.16.

Picked on March 26th at $32.01
Results since picked:    -0.51
Earnings Date         03/13/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Cooper Tire - CTB - close: 12.52 change: -0.49 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, with headquarters in Findlay, Ohio,
specializes in the manufacture and marketing of automotive products
including auto, motorcycle and truck tires, inner tubes, tread rubber
and equipment. Cooper-Standard Automotive is an original equipment
supplier of sealing, trim, NVH control systems and fluid handling
systems for the automotive industry in North America, Europe,
Australia and South America. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It's all about demand - or in Cooper's case, lack thereof.
Shares of the tire company have been trending lower for more than
two months amid concerns of weakening sales and production cuts
at the largest automotive companies.  Shares of Ford (F), General
Motors (GM), and DaimlerChrysler (DCX) are all trading near long-
term lows.  Their fundamental problems have ground the entire
industry to a halt.  Not surprisingly, the DJUSTR Dow Jones tire
index (yes, there's actually an index for tires) is sitting near
all-time lows at 26.08 after falling from the 2002 highs at 90.
In its latest earnings report on February 6th, Cooper's CEO
underscored the challenges facing tire-makers, saying that
"demand appears to be soft, especially in comparison to the
strong first quarter of 2002."  The strong demand in 2002 was
largely fueled by the interest-free financing that the auto
companies offered in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.
Unfortunately for investors that strategy only gave the auto
group a temporary pop.  Many analysts don't anticipate a
sustainable recovery until the overall economy sees some real
improvement.  Providing vivid evidence of the sector-wide
challenges, General Motors reported earlier this month that its
February U.S. sales fell by 19%.

On March 17th JP Morgan issued a sweeping downgrade of several
automotive stocks (including CTB), saying that it anticipated
larger-than-expected industry production cuts.  The timing of
these comments was fortuitous for bulls, because the downgrade
occurred during the huge market rally that began on March 12th.
But now that the widespread bullishness has faded, the awful
fundamentals are once again taking their toll on the sector.  In
sharp contrast to the Dow, CTB has actually retraced its entire
mid-March rally.  The stock underperformed the market on Thursday
with a 3.7% decline.  This loss took shares within range of
critical long-term support in the $12.25-$12.35 region.  A
violation of that level could put Cooper on a crash course with
the next area of psychological support at $10.00.  We'll kick
this play off with a profit-target at $10.06.  Some traders may
want to aim for a test of the 2001 low at $10.55.  In order to
confirm a breakdown, we will not enter this play until CTB trades
at or below $12.24.  If the paper trade is activated we'll use a
stop at $13.11.  On a final technical note, point-and-figure
chartists will be interested to see that a trade at $12.00 would
produce a spread-triple sell signal.

Annotated weekly chart - CTB:


Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/19/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Best Buy Co - BBY - close: 28.20 change: -1.23 stop: 27.99

The wild gyrations continue for Best Buy.  Unfortunately, the
latest movement has been in a downward direction.  BBY headed
lower on Wednesday after Banc of America downgraded the stock's
rating from "buy" to "neutral" and issued a price target of $32.
BAC said that Best Buy's risk/reward ratio was unfavorable at
current levels.  Shares drifted throughout the session, closed
near the intraday lows, and traced an Inside Day pattern.
Technicians will remember that breakdowns out of that
consolidation pattern often portend further weakness.  That was
certainly the case this morning, when shares were hit with heavy
selling after moving below yesterday's low.  BBY once again bled
lower throughout the session, ultimately posting a loss of 4.1%.
By contrast, the RLX.X retail index gave back only 0.4%.  Shares
came within a few cents of our stop-loss during the final minutes
of the trading day.  The strong volume behind today's sell-off
suggests that the downtrend might continue.  If our play isn't
stopped out tomorrow morning we'll be looking for BBY to
stabilize near $28.40, which acted as a price magnet for much of
today's session.  Traders who don't mind giving the stock a
little more breathing room could use a stop just below the 50-dma
at $27.82.

Picked on March 18th at $30.50
Gain since picked:       -2.30
Earnings Date         04/01/03 (confirmed)




---

Timberland - TBL - close: 41.98 change: +0.23 stop: 39.98 *new*

Ever since it bottomed out near $41.00 earlier this week, TBL has
slowly marched its way back towards the relative high of $42.40.
A 10-minute chart shows that the stock has recouped most of its
Monday morning losses.  This represents bullish divergence versus
the Dow Jones, which has trended lower throughout the week.  In
addition to Timberland's relative strength, bulls will also be
pleased to see that the daily stochastics (5,3,3) have staged a
reversal from the mid-level.  The MACD also seems to have
flattened out without giving a bearish crossover.  But frankly,
it would probably be a mistake to read too much into the
oscillators during this period of geo-political uncertainty.
Further broader market weakness would make it difficult for TBL
to stage a convincing breakout.  On the other hand, a move to new
highs accompanied by a bullish action in the Dow would bode well
for an eventual rally to our exit target at $44.94.  Note that
our stop-loss has been bumped up to $39.98, below the rising 21-
dma ($40.27) and psychological support at $40.00.

Picked on March 14th at $40.81
Results since picked:    +1.17
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

AT&T - T - close: 16.81 change: -0.17 stop: 17.36

Operation Iraqi Freedom is barely a week old, but there is
already growing pessimism regarding the length of the war as
Coalition forces encounter strong resistance on their way to
Baghdad.  Uncertainty has returned to Wall Street and investors
seem to be unwilling to place any large bets.  This has resulted
in a general lack of direction for the major indexes.  The Dow
has traded mostly sideways over the past three sessions, with the
exception of this morning's brief jaunt towards 8100.  T also
bounced from its intraday lows but underperformed the Industrials
with a 1.0% loss.  The stock suffered a similar early-session
decline on Wednesday as traders responded to negative brokerage
comments.  Soundview Technology Group started coverage on AT&T
with an "underperform" rating and a price target of $12.  The
stock bounced back from the initial sell-off but wasn't able to
conquer resistance at $17.00.  That level continued to keep a lid
on T during today's session.  Tomorrow we'll be looking for
shares to extend today's losses and move towards Monday's low of
$16.31.  But if the Dow continues to bounce around in the 8200
area, T will probably remain in its own short-term trading range.
Conservative traders can place stops just above the
Tuesday/Wednesday high of $17.03.

Picked on March 21st at $16.48
Results since picked:    -0.33
Earnings Date         04/24/03 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Black Box - BBOX - close: 30.52 change: +0.07 stop: 28.69

The recent trading in the NASDAQ is a far cry from the volatile
action that was seen 1-2 weeks ago.  The index has settled into a
tight 30-point range as traders keep their eyes glued to the 24-
hour news channels, watching the latest developments in the war
with Iraq.  BBOX is mirroring that sideways action - shares have
spent the past week trading in the $29.25-$31.00 range.  It seems
that the bulls just can't stage a breakout without any assistance
from the NASDAQ.  However, there are some technical indications
that BBOX might soon make another run at its relative highs.  The
MACD has just produced a bullish crossover, and the daily
stochastics (5,3,3) have reversed from the middle range.  For
now, we'll take a "wait and see" approach.  Although new entries
can be evaluated if BBOX breaks above $31.00 or the relative high
of $31.38, most traders will probably want to confirm tech sector
momentum with a NASDAQ breakout above 1400.  Remember - the
majority of a stock's movement is usually dictated by the broader
market.  Conservative traders can continue to use a stop slightly
below $29.00 or $29.25.

Picked on March 19th at $30.86
Results since picked:    -0.34
Earnings Date         05/08/03 (unconfirmed)





=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CSC     Computer Sciences Corp     33.37     +1.54

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MSCC    Microsemi Corp             11.45     +1.15
USNA    Usana Health Science       19.14     +1.65
LSS     Lone Star Technologies     20.00     +1.40

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CELG    Celgene Corp               27.17     +1.11
NFLX    Netflix Inc                21.73     +1.13
RL      Polo Ralph Lauren          22.25     +1.21
IMDC    Inamed Corp                35.52     +1.02
HTCH    Hutchinson Technology      25.47     +1.36
ANSI    Advanced Neuro Systems     40.99     +2.52
IBB     Biotech Ishares            52.40     +1.04

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

AVE     Aventis                    45.49     -1.51
VIP     Vimpel Communications      34.20     -3.60
HSY     Hershey Foods              63.37     -1.58
STZ     Constellation Brands       22.00     -1.25

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

OMC     Omnicom Group              55.43     -1.18
DHR     Danaher Corp               65.45     -1.46
CPG     Chelsea Property Group     37.63     -0.79
ELUX    Electrolux                 32.84     -0.79
SUP     Superior Industries        36.67     -0.41




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