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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 03/28/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-28-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Uncertainty Reigns
Play-of-the-Day:  Tailspin
Watch List:       LMT, ERTS, WHR, MCD, and much more...
Market Sentiment: Still Stuck

******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
******************************************************************
        WE 3-28         WE 3-21         WE 3-14        WE 03-07
DOW     8145.77 -375.85 8521.62 +661.91 7859.71 +119.68 -151.05
Nasdaq  1369.52 - 51.65 1421.17 + 80.84 1340.33 + 35.04 - 32.25
S&P-100  437.94 - 18.43  456.37 + 32.30  424.07 +  3.95 -  5.24
S&P-500  863.48 - 32.41  895.89 + 62.62  833.27 +  4.38 - 12.26
W5000   8185.39 -277.93 8463.32 +566.83 7896.49 + 39.17 -115.30
RUT      368.70 -  7.53  376.23 + 21.84  354.39 +   .21 -  6.34
TRAN    2163.20 -100.29 2263.49 +236.40 2027.09 - 15.39 -  6.57
VIX       32.18 -  1.44   33.62 -  2.71   36.33 +  0.68 +  1.50
VXN       43.09 -  2.69   45.78 -  0.02   45.80 -  0.59 +  0.74
TRIN       1.43            0.59            1.11            1.29
Put/Call   1.31            0.63            0.70            0.75
******************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Uncertainty Reigns
by Jim Brown

The markets roiled by uncertainty last week are on the verge of
seeing things more clearly. Unfortunately what they are seeing
is the possibility of coalition attacks on Syria and Iran for
coming to the aid of Iraq. They are seeing the potential for
a war that could last months instead of weeks and the economic
impact of that revelation. Add in the delisting of two major
NYSE companies and a flurry of new earnings scams and it is
no wonder money is flowing into bonds and out of stocks.

Dow Chart - Daily


Dow Chart - 45 min


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - 45 min


Personal Income and Spending were announced on Friday and
although income rose +0.3% for the seventh monthly increase
the disposable income rose only +0.2%. This was the slowest
gain since last July. For the second month spending remained
unchanged with declines in durable goods and auto sales as
consumers sat on their wallets. Rising unemployment and the
war was given as the reasons again.

Consumer Sentiment fell to a ten year low of 77.6. This was
slightly better than the preliminary reading and above consensus
estimates of 75.0. That is like getting an extra two cents back
in your change for a Big Mac. You can hold it but it won't buy
anything. The expectations component fell to 69.6 and the
lowest level in nine years. Consumers fear a new recession
and a lingering war. These numbers should get worse now that
the war is not seen as a couple weeks at a sandy picnic. With
the constant warnings that it could take months and constant
updates on casualties the next sentiment numbers could be
significantly lower.

This weeks economic reports showed declines in almost every
area and next week is not likely to be any different. Tuesday
will lead off with the ISM report and the odds are very good
that it will show a contraction for March. February was only
barely positive at 50.5. This will not be received well by the
market. Wednesday we will get Factory Orders and Thursday ISM
Services. The big one is Friday with nonfarm payrolls. The
large drop in payrolls last month is likely to be followed
by yet another large drop for March. The +400K Jobless Claims
for the last several weeks is a clear indicator of the
prospects for the Jobs Report. This may not be a market
mover because it is so easily predicted in advance. Analysts
did however miss it by a mile last month and another big
miss could be the trigger. The forecast is for a loss of
-11,000 jobs. Last month the forecast was for a slight gain
and we lost -308,000 jobs instead. Tuesday we will get auto
sales and analysts think sales have fallen again despite
steep incentives and low interest rates.

Earnings also start in a week and contrary to expectations
there was not a flurry of warnings over the last two weeks.
The numbers of total companies prewarning are up but there was
not a last minute rush to confess. This may be good news or
they all just warned far enough in advance to avoid the rush.
Expectations are negligible and earnings growth for the year
is now estimated to be nearing the 7% range. Far below any
previous estimates and below historical norms for expansion
periods.

The airlines took another hit on Friday with oil rising again,
debt down grades, delistings and hijackings. Just when they
thought it could not get worse, it did. S&P downgraded debt
on four major carriers but I doubt that came as a surprise to
anyone. UAL was delisted from the NYSE for trading the required
number of days under a dollar. Rumors persist that UAL may
break up, liquidate and possibly turn into a smaller regional
carrier. Either way the stock will be worthless considering
the amount of debt they owe. AMR is rumored to be nearing a
bankruptcy announcement that could come as soon as Sunday.
AMR is burning $5 million cash per day and getting worse.
After the close a Turkish airliner was hijacked to Greece
which will add to even more flight cancellations by those
already afraid to fly. There was talk about a $3 billion
bailout on Friday but talk has never paid any bills. One
analyst said the "titans of air travel are becoming the
titanics of the industry".

Mutual fund buying was nonexistent on Friday. The anticipated
end of quarter window dressing failed to appear as expected.
The ICI survey released on Thursday showed cash still flowing
out of stock funds and also showed that the cash levels were
down to 4.3% of assets. Fidelity, Strong, Janus and T. Rowe
Group all said they had seen inflows of cash since the market
began rebounding but TrimTabs.com said a net $8 billion in cash
had left funds through March 25th which included the rally
period. This shows that fear of the war impact on the economy
and current stock fundamentals have not been overcome by the
war rally.

"This is not what we trained for" was the comment by General
William Wallace when questioned about the status of the war.
He said he was surprised by the strength of the Iraqi forces,
the lack of local support. He also said he was getting ticked
off at the constant missile warnings as the Iraqi "lawn darts"
were lobbed at his camp. He was aggravated that he was not
allowed to go kick some butt to stop the problem at its source.
He also implied that the drive had been stalled due to persistent
attacks, long supply lines and lack of adequate numbers of
coalition troops. These comments riled the administration and
probably put Wallace in hot water but then they are not dodging
the darts. Wallace is about to get help. The Pentagon said they
were sending 100,000 more troops to the gulf on a rush basis
but that could take another 4-6 weeks or longer. Let's call it
6-8 weeks since nothing ever goes as planned. That means they
will not be there to help on the front lines, with equipment,
for two months. They way I count that means end of June at the
earliest for the war to be over. That would almost guarantee
another recession.

Rumsfeld is rumored to be on the way out of the administration
for his refusal to use sufficient troops in the initial plan
and for failure to recognize the threat risk. There are complaints
he overestimated the potential for mass surrenders and failed
to allow Tommy Franks enough forces to accomplish the task.
Several analysts have said he will be gone within 30 days. To
fire him now would be an admission of failure and he will likely
be phased out of the public limelight over the next few weeks.
That would be a trick! "Phasing out" the Secretary of Defense
during a war. Obviously this is an evolving story. Another
prominent name retiring is Hans Blix. He has announced he will
retire in June at age 75. Obviously Hans has had a tough job
lately but I hope I am that robust and in control of my
faculties when I am 75. I saw him on Capitol Report this week
and the interviewer was relentless. Hans was equally feisty and
took no punches and delivered several of his own. I have not
walked in his shoes so I can't make an opinion about his recent
results but he has taken the heat and stood toe to toe with
some giants. Take a rest Hans, you deserve it.

Rumsfeld also warned Syria and Iran today that they were at
risk of being attacked if they interfered in the war. Apparently
Syria was shipping military technology to Iraq including night
vision goggles. He warned them that any further such incidents
would be consider hostile acts and appropriate action would be
taken. The Iranian Badr Corp was also warned to leave Iraq
after it was determined several hundred had crossed the border
and were headed to assist the Shiite population in Basra. Saddam
has killed several hundred thousand Shiites in southern Iraq
and some 27 family members of the current leadership in Iran.
Needless to say there is no love lost. The Badr Corp would
not be coming to help the coalition but to carve out the
Basra area from any future Iraq as an addition to Iran.
Rumsfeld said any Iranian troops crossing the border would
be considered hostile combatants. So, adding Syria and Iran
to the hit list is now a possibility. Unfortunately they
both have an air force unlike Iraq. I wonder with General
Wallace trained for this possibility. (Just kidding, I doubt
Syria and Iran would want to join the fight. Just some
serious saber rattling here.)

Adding to the expanding war implications was the arrest on
this week of two groups of Iraq intelligence agents in different
countries as they prepared to launch terrorist attacks. They
were in possession of explosives and were going to attack
civilian targets. One of the targets was a large hotel in
Jordan. Different reports over the last couple weeks have
said between 50-75 Iraqi intelligence personnel were sent out
two weeks before the war to make revenge attacks on multiple
countries if Iraq was invaded. Rumors say up to 25 of these
were sent to infiltrate the US. The arrests of Iraqi agents
in two countries would lend credence to these rumors. On
another front British forces found evidence of Al Queda
forces fighting on the side of Iraq near Basra. They were
moving to cut them off and try to capture them late Friday.

The markets reacted to all this news by retesting critical
support several times. The Dow gapped down to initial support
at 8130 before rebounding on news that the NYC bridge closings
were not terrorist related. It rebounded to 8200 on very light
volume as the various news conferences tried to put some
lipstick on the war and paint a rosy picture. As further
details about causalities and comments about problems in
Iraq made the news the markets turned around and the Dow
retested 8100 again. Short covering at the close slowed the
drop and the Dow recovered to close just below 8150.

The Nasdaq posted a lower high for the third consecutive
day but is holding the line at 1365 support. At least that
support held though Friday's close with the Nasdaq ending
at 1369. Tech stocks were starting to look weaker in many
sectors and the SOX for instance closed at a ten day low.
Techs are actually performing worse than the broader market
but they also performed better than the broader market in
the recent rally. What leads up often leads down.

The risk to the current markets is substantial. The reality
of the war is being brought into living rooms at a pace
never before experienced. The problems with the current
strategies are being dissected and examined under the
microscope with dozens of opinions being offered on every
network. Since bad news attracts more attention the airwaves
are full of controversy whenever possible. The overriding
observation is that this could take another three months
and the coalition does not have as much control as they
are claiming. A missile hit Kuwait City on Friday night
that was fired from the Faw Peninsula. This area was thought
to be under coalition control and had been cleared of Iraqi
forces. Obviously it wasn't. Other sources are claiming the
Iraqi armor is hiding in garages and buildings only to come
out after coalition forces have passed though the area. This
puts them behind the coalition lines and able to wreak havoc
later when not expected. Iraq had 5500 armored vehicles, 2500
artillery pieces and over one million troops in their combined
army units when the war began. We have 90,000 combat troops
5000 armored vehicles and 1100 planes in Iraq. You do the
math but even with the dominance of the air we are seriously
outnumbered. Obviously those planes are going to get a lot
of use until the 100,000 troops on order show up ready to
fight.

Needless to say things are not going well. As of Friday night
there are 31 Marines missing in action. Marines make a point
to never leave a buddy behind and the high MIA count shows
how fierce some firefights have been. The realization of the
reality of war will probably sink in to many investors over
the weekend. The war will not be quick. It will be messy and
the impact to investor sentiment and the economy will be severe.
I believe the only reason we did not sell off sharply on
Friday was due to the potential for a Saddam removal over
the weekend and possibly some light end of quarter buying.
Assuming Saddam is not retired by Monday it may be a different
story.

Ironically the Commitment of Traders report shows commercial
traders had moved into a net long S&P position for the first
time in ages. Small traders have dropped their strong bullish
stance to the lowest net long position for the year. These
numbers are as of March 25th and reflect the aftermath of the
recent rally. The strong reversal for commercials from bearish
positions several weeks ago now sets up the chance for another
reversal back to bearish positions without the expected two
week war. That reversal could be sharp and quick if the ISM
numbers are seriously negative and the Jobs Report shows
another major loss.

Investors will have to decide next week if they want to tough
it out and hope Iraq does not turn into a Mogadishu or a
Vietnam. They will have to decide if they want to hold through
another recessionary dip while casualty reports continue to
pile up. The ISM and nonfarm payroll reports will help this
decision process. A Dell analyst meeting on Thursday will
also help provide insight into the tech spending outlook.

The Dow gained +1100 points from the March lows in only eight
days. It has given back only -375 points. A 50% retracement
would drop the Dow to 7975. The Dow and the Nasdaq both closed
just above strong but critical support on Friday (8100/1365).
Should that support fail it could be due to deteriorating
sentiment and profit taking from the biggest one week gain
in 20 years. The charts above tell it all and I think the
picture is clear. In military jargon, in a very short period
of time the bulls have penetrated deep into areas recently
controlled by the bears. Their support lines are stretched to
the breaking point and the bears are nipping at that support.
It may be time for them to fall back to regroup and wait for
the reserves to make the next assault. Alternatively they
could dig in and wait for this sandstorm to clear and hope
the ISM on Tuesday is more ammunition and not an incoming
bunker buster. Keep your head down this week or be ready to
duck really fast.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (BEARISH)
=========================
((new non-tech play))

Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 15.98 change: -0.42 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Alaska Air Group is the holding company for Seattle-based Alaska
Airlines and Horizon Air.  Alaska Airlines is the nation's ninth
largest airline with more than 11,000 employees. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
Among the various sectors of the U.S. economy, airline carriers
are perhaps the most likely to suffer from a sustained war in
Iraq.  It's a classic example of a situation going from bad to
worse.  Even before U.S. troops began amassing in the Middle
East, the industry was reeling from declining passenger demand
and the downward spiral of United Airlines and AMR, the parent
company of American.  AMR moved sharply lower this week as it
became increasingly likely that the company would soon be filing
for bankruptcy.  They'll be joining United, who's already in the
midst of Chapter 11 restructuring.  UAL has failed to meet NYSE
listing requirements and will be banished from the Big Board next
week.

Smaller carriers such as ALK, with smaller capacity and less
excess overhead, have done a better job of weathering the
industry weakness.  Some analysts have even speculated that those
companies might move in to fill the void left by the downsizing
of routes at AMR and UAL.  While that might eventually be the
case, there are far more pressing issues at hand.  Investors are
concerned that a long, multi-month war will deal another
devastating blow to the airlines.  Congress is currently debating
an aid package designed to alleviate those problems.  The latest
word from Capitol Hill is that up to $3 billion in aid could be
approved by next week.  It's worth noting, however, that similar
handouts in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks couldn't keep U.S.
Air and UAL (and apparently, AMR) from sinking into the abyss of
Chapter 11.

Last week the XAL.X airline index (and overall market) moved
explosively higher on speculation that Coalition forces would
roll to a rapid victory.  But instead, the invasion is shaping up
to be far different from the one-sided romp of Gulf War I.  The
rising oil prices and depressed travel bookings likely to stem
from a multi-month conflict would be disastrous for the airlines.
These concerns have pressured ALK over the past three trading
sessions.  On Friday the stock closed below $16.00 for the first
time since October.  The bearish MACD and daily stochastics
(5,3,3) are hinting at a retest of the next level of support near
$14.00.  This play will have an exit target just above that level
at $14.06.  For those who are wondering, that huge volume spike
on March 18th occurred after Alaska Air said that it had sold off
$150 million in convertible bonds to finance its losses.  That
news prompted a sell-off that took ALK to a relative low of
$15.70.  This play will not be activated until the stock trades
below that level.  If we're triggered our stop will be set at
$16.69, a penny above the Thursday afternoon high.  More
conservative traders can use a stop slightly above today's high
of $16.15.

Annotated daily chart - ALK:


Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/18/03 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Lockheed Martin Corp - LMT - close: 48.14 change: +0.89

WHAT TO WATCH: The growing realization that this war in Iraq
might last longer than a couple of weeks has produced a potential
reversal of significance for the defense sector.  Stocks in the
group have been fading for months but the last couple of weeks
have brought new life to them.  LMT has rebounded strongly this
week while the major markets have drifted lower.  The close over
the stock's 50-dma is positive but the $50 mark might be overhead
resistance.  Keep in mind not all defense stocks are in the same
boat.  Another defense company, Alliant Tech Systems (ATK), is
doing pretty well this week, but other players in the group like
LMT's rival Boeing (BA) is under pressure.  Granted BA has a lot
more exposure to the dying commercial airline industry and with
the recent bankruptcies and the imminent bankruptcy announcement
for American Airlines (AMR) Boeing is not likely to see a ton of
new orders for commercial jets.




---

Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 59.75 change: -0.03

WHAT TO WATCH: A couple of years ago analysts couldn't stumble
over themselves fast enough to proclaim a new era was on the
horizon.  Many were predicting a new six to eight year boom for
the video game industry.  So far there hasn't been many signs
that there is any slowing and video games remain one of the few
tech markets that have been able to maintain expansion.  EA is
the virtual big fish in this pond and the stock is coming off a
nice basing pattern.  The mid-February to late March rally
attempt ran straight into resistance on the daily chart at $60
and the stock's 200-dma.  This also happens to coincide with the
stock's Point-and-Figure chart resistance at $61.00.    While the
stock is looking a little over extended right now the recent
trend of higher lows looks pretty tempting for the bulls.  Short-
term aggressive traders may want to keep their eye on a breakout
above $60.00.  Keep your stops tight!




---

Whirlpool Corp - WHR - close: 49.58 change: -0.98

WHAT TO WATCH: The recent numbers about slower home sales, a
future of higher mortgage rates and the recent reports of slower
personal spending are not positive signs for this appliance
maker.  Shares are falling from a failed rally at the 200-dma and
the close under the $50 mark looks ominous.  Daily oscillators
are about to roll over and the next support level appears to be
the $45 area.  Would you go long or short this stock?




---

La-Z-Boy - LZB - close: 17.68 change: -0.66

WHAT TO WATCH: LZB is probably suffering from the same issues
afflicting Whirlpool.  A consumer that appears to be pulling back
on their personal spending doesn't bode well for LZB sales.  If
there are going to be fewer home sales then there might be fewer
"upgrades" of the old T.V. room furniture.  This stock is falling
from a failed rally at its 50-dma and the close under $18.00 on
strong volume looks very discouraging for the bulls.  Next stop
is probably $17.00 and then a test of the March low.  We would
not be surprised to see LZB test its 2001 low under the $15 mark.




---

McDonalds Corp - MCD - close: 14.84 change: +0.34

WHAT TO WATCH: Surprise, surprise!  MCD has been one of the best
performing Dow Jones Industrials components for the last couple
of days.  Why is that?  It's hard to imagine many "smart money"
investors actually want to take a long-term position in the
stock.  There is a growing concern for industry watchers that the
fast-food industry may be heading into the same sort of
litigation the tobacco industry has been suffering from.  This
isn't surprising considering the rising rate of obesity in this
country.  Recent news articles have uncovered that multiple
bidders have approached MCD about buying a stake in MCD's partner
restaurants (non-McDonald's chains).  The FinancialTimes article
mentioned some of the chains MCD might be interested in selling a
stake in were Donato's Pizzeria, Pret A Manger sandwiches, Boston
Market and Chipotle Mexican Grill.  Personally, I hope they sell
off the Chipotle chain and have someone bring it public.  They
aren't allowing franchises for the Chipotle chain so our only
chance to grab a stake is an IPO.  Of course this could be years
away.  Bulls watching shares of MCD might want to key in on a
move over the $15 mark.  Watch out for that 100-dma right at
15.60.






The RADAR Screen
----------------

TTC - Toro is holding near its all-time highs after rebounding
from psychological support at $70.00.  There's some additional
underlying support at the 21-dma.  The oscillators are turning
down, so traders will probably want to see some additional
sideways action before targeting long entries.

BA - Boeing has suffered from a dramatic downturn in orders for
jumbo jets.  Shares haven't received any noticeable boost from a
recent upturn in the DFX.X defense index, and a continued
downtrend seems likely.  Bulls will point out that BA has
possible support at the relative lows near $25.00.

IBM - Speculative traders could think about going long IBM.
Weakness in the Dow has taken Big Blue back to the $80.00 region,
slightly above the 21-dma ($79.59), and 50-dma ($79.14).  If the
Industrials get a bounce, IBM could quickly make its way towards
the relative highs near $85.

ATH -  The HMO.X health provider index bucked the bearish market
trend on Friday.  ATH looks like a good long play within the
sector because it's just moved above resistance in the $64.00
region.  Today's 2.8% gain produced a spread-triple breakout on
the point-and-figure chart.

LXK - Lexmark is showing good relative strength as it works its
way towards the 52-week highs.  A pullback to $65.00 (near the
bottom of the multi-week regression channel) might offer a
relatively low-risk entry point.  Solid historical resistance
looms overhead at $70.00.

WDC - Another tech stock that's displaying relative strength.
Western Digital moved sharply higher this week on very strong
volume.  The weekly chart shows that a breakout above $10.00
would put shares in a large fast-move region that extends all the
way up to the $20.00 level.  The p-n-f chart is showing a triple-
top buy signal.

RJR - Seemingly endless tobacco litigation has dragged MO and RJR
to long-term lows.  A break below the relative low of $33.50
could earn RJR a one-way trip to the next level of historical
support at $30.00.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Still Stuck
by Steven Price

The markets continued to trade in a range bound fashion ahead of
the weekend.  With U.S. troops approaching Baghdad and an
uncertain result ahead, it appears traders were weary of
committing a large amount of capital ahead of two days in which
they could not adjust positions.   We have essentially traded in
a 200-point Dow range for the past couple of weeks, with the
exception of the big breakout last Friday and reversal on Monday.
Looking for directional signals has not been easy this week, as
each dip is bought and each rally is sold.

The economic data released this morning showed the first back-to-
back decline in consumer spending since the recession of two
years ago and the drop of 0.4% in February was the biggest drop
in five months.   Prices also rose 0.4%, mostly due to the rise
in energy costs. However, nominal consumer incomes did rise 0.3%
in spite of contracting payrolls and provide some beacon of hope
for consumer spending in the future.

Also on the plus side was a consumer sentiment index that came in
higher than expected and reflected a jump in confidence as soon
as the war started.  The preliminary reading two weeks ago was
75.0, but the revised reading for the entire month was 77.6.  The
index stood in contrast to the Conference Board's Consumer
Confidence number that came out earlier in the week, but
reflected data only up to two days before the start of the war.

The bond market continues to see buying, driving yields lower in
a bearish indication for stocks in the near term.  February saw
an outflow of $11 billion from stock funds and an inflow of $19
billion for bond funds, as investors fled to safety ahead of the
start of war.  The reverse flow once the war started now appears
to be slowing, as the timeframe for the invasion has been far
more extended than many in the financial markets expected.  It
was just a week ago that we saw a round of buying (and possibly
short-covering) on Friday ahead of what looked like a probable
U.S. victory last weekend.  Now that oil prices have ticked
higher, reflecting oil fires in the large Iraqi oil fields of
Rumalia and a longer conflict, the equity market has maintained
its inverse relationship to those prices with a pullback.

A number of sectors did show strength on Friday, with defensive
dollars flowing into oil and gas, gold stocks and defense. The
Defense Index (DFI), which had been sold off for the past few
months in anticipation of a short war, has rebounded from a low
of 410 on March 12, to a current reading of 459.79, for a
percentage gain of 12%.   Gold futures, which have dropped
precipitously the past couple of months, seem to have found at
least a temporary bottom. They have crept higher the past few
days, as well. These defensive plays will likely resume their
earlier drops once the war comes to an end, but until that
happens, they continue to find buyers.

The consolidation we have seen over the past couple of weeks has
also dropped the Market Volatility Index (VIX) below recent
support at 34%, however if remains above the 30% level and will
likely do so until there is a resolution in Iraq.  One indication
that there are still plenty of institutional put buyers is the
11.73 put/call ratio today in the QQQ.

We have now given back 34% of the gain from the March 12 lows to
the highs of a week ago.  Is that simply a pullback?  The bullish
percents, which are still rising, would say yes.  However, we
have continuously tested support at a previous area of resistance
in the Dow and OEX, which coincides with the 50% retracement of
the August-October hi-lo range.  A move below those levels may
indicate another test of Dow 8000, if accompanied by a similar
breakdown in the bond yield. The ten-year yield is sitting on top
of its 50-dma and also the 61.8% retracement of lo-hi range.
Traders may want to start nibbling at a pullback entry in the
8000-8050 range if we stop there and find some support.

After the weekend passes we should get a better picture on Monday
of which direction traders are leaning, based on how things shake
out in Iraq over the weekend.  If there is no more progress, we
may bleed lower.   If we begin to take control of Baghdad,
jumping on an opening rally early on may yield profits up to the
relative highs. However, with an explosion in an upscale mall in
Kuwait City possibly due to a SCUD missile launched from an area
previously thought to be under U.S. control, we got a reminder
that Iraq is fighting back and the market reaction on Monday may
reflect that fact.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10673
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  8146

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 8248
 50-dma: 8014
200-dma: 8406

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1176
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  864

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  872
 50-dma:  849
200-dma:  889

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1573
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1047

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1070
 50-dma: 1008
200-dma:  991
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Semiconductor Index (SOX): After finding a ceiling at the
exponential 200-dma, the SOX has pulled back and drifted lower on
four of the last five trading sessions. It bounced at its simple
200-dma on 3 of the last four sessions, but couldn't quite hold
onto that level today. It broke down intraday to a low of 308 and
finished the day a point below that 200-dma (311) at 310.  While
it may not be a big move through that average, it may signal
another drop to support at the 300 level.

52-week High: 600
52-week Low : 214
Current     : 310

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 21-dma: 305
 50-dma: 291
200-dma: 311
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX finished slightly higher today, in spite of the continued
range bound activity of the broader indices.  It has clustered
between 32% and 34% since falling below 34% on Tuesday on a
closing basis for only the third time since January. The VIX has
continued to slide lower as the market has held 2/3 of recent
gains, but ahead of a weekend that could bring bearish or bullish
news from the war front, it has maintained itself over 30%.  We
may see a drop below 30% after the war ends, or if we get some
positive economic data, but for the moment, premiums seem to have
found a comfort zone.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 32.18 +0.03
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 43.09 -0.78
-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.31        407,555       533,427
Equity Only    1.32        318,321       418,899
OEX            1.31         13,466        17,590
QQQ           11.73         21,093       247,332
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          40.7    + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    49.0    + 0     Bull Alert
Dow Indust.   40.0    + 0     Bull Alert
S&P 500       41.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       43.0    + 0     Bear Alert

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.96
10-Day Arms Index  1.27
21-Day Arms Index  1.51
55-Day Arms Index  1.37

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       1450           1342
NASDAQ     1394           1577

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        50               37
NASDAQ      71               26

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE       1,449
NASDAQ     1,321
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/25/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials reduced both sides of the position, but continued to
reduce the short side far enough to shift the net position from
short to long. Small traders also reduced both positions, but
reduced the net long position overall by 11,000 contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
03/04/03      426,053   472,492   (46,439)   (5.2%)
03/11/03      440,688   485,938   (45,250)   (4.9%)
03/18/03      483,224   490,582   ( 7,358)   (0.1%)
03/25/03      424,781   415,258     9,523     0.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year:    9,523  -  3/25/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/04/03      164,759    98,636    66,123     25.1%
03/11/03      169,450   102,631    66,819     24.6%
03/18/03      184,907   153,400    31,507      9.3%
03/25/03      143,402   123,178    20,224      7.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  20,224 - 3/25/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

NASDAQ-100

Commercials in the NDX also mirrored their S&P counterparts,
reducing overall positions and turning a net short to a net long.
 Small traders took the opposite approach, changing their net
 position from long to short, reducing the long side by nearly 4
 times as much as the short side.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/04/03       39,934     52,978   (13,044) (14.0%)
03/11/03       43,641     56,020   (12,379) (12.4%)
03/18/03       58,877     64,302   ( 5,425) ( 4.4%)
03/25/03       44,403     36,436     7,967    9.9%  NOW POS. ERASE THIS

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068  - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/04/03       24,240     8,038    16,202    50.2%
03/11/03       27,196     9,674    17,522    47.5%
03/18/03       37,097    26,951    10,146    15.8%
03/25/03       10,313    20,080   ( 9,767)  (32.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials reduced long and short positions, leaning slightly to
the long side. Small traders also reduced but ended up with a
larger net short position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/04/03       21,326    12,724    8,602      25.3%
03/11/03       21,726    14,370    7,356      20.4%
03/18/03       26,880    18,853    8,027      17.6%
03/25/03       19,752    10,212    9,540      31.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/04/03        5,233     8,075    (2,842)   (21.4%)
03/11/03        5,549     7,727    (2,178)   (16.4%)
03/18/03        6,589     8,343    (1,754)   (11.7%)
03/25/03        5,076     7,721    (2,645)   (20.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------




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To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-28-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  ADBE

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Plays:     ALK
  Bullish Play Updates:  TBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  CTB, T
  Closed Bullish Plays:  BBY

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  BBOX

Split Trader / Stock Splits
  Split Announcements:
                         ZQK: 2-for-1 stock split


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 31.79 change: +0.29 stop: 29.88

More rangebound trading characterized Friday's action in ADBE as
shares fought to counter a steady NASDAQ downtrend.  The bulls
can be commended for maintaining the $31.50 level while the GSO.X
software index was working its way towards a closing loss of
1.1%.  ADBE closed with a gain of nearly 1%, well off the lows of
the day.  This action came on the lowest volume in over two
weeks.  It looks like the stock wants to stage a breakout above
the $32.00 region, but that might be hard to accomplish if the
NASDAQ continues to drift lower from psychological resistance at
1400.  Right now the index is sitting on short-term support near
the 100-dma (1370).  A move through that level would be a
negative development for tech bulls, and make it difficult for
Adobe to move towards its relative high at $34.27.  With that in
mind, some traders might want to saddle ADBE with a tight stop
just below short-term support at $31.00.  New entries can be
targeted if shares break above $32.16, but be sure to first
confirm bullish momentum in the NASDAQ.

Picked on March 26th at $32.01
Results since picked:    -0.22
Earnings Date         03/13/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 15.98 change: -0.42 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Alaska Air Group is the holding company for Seattle-based Alaska
Airlines and Horizon Air.  Alaska Airlines is the nation's ninth
largest airline with more than 11,000 employees. (source: company
press release)

Why We Like It:
Among the various sectors of the U.S. economy, airline carriers
are perhaps the most likely to suffer from a sustained war in
Iraq.  It's a classic example of a situation going from bad to
worse.  Even before U.S. troops began amassing in the Middle
East, the industry was reeling from declining passenger demand
and the downward spiral of United Airlines and AMR, the parent
company of American.  AMR moved sharply lower this week as it
became increasingly likely that the company would soon be filing
for bankruptcy.  They'll be joining United, who's already in the
midst of Chapter 11 restructuring.  UAL has failed to meet NYSE
listing requirements and will be banished from the Big Board next
week.

Smaller carriers such as ALK, with smaller capacity and less
excess overhead, have done a better job of weathering the
industry weakness.  Some analysts have even speculated that those
companies might move in to fill the void left by the downsizing
of routes at AMR and UAL.  While that might eventually be the
case, there are far more pressing issues at hand.  Investors are
concerned that a long, multi-month war will deal another
devastating blow to the airlines.  Congress is currently debating
an aid package designed to alleviate those problems.  The latest
word from Capitol Hill is that up to $3 billion in aid could be
approved by next week.  It's worth noting, however, that similar
handouts in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks couldn't keep U.S.
Air and UAL (and apparently, AMR) from sinking into the abyss of
Chapter 11.

Last week the XAL.X airline index (and overall market) moved
explosively higher on speculation that Coalition forces would
roll to a rapid victory.  But instead, the invasion is shaping up
to be far different from the one-sided romp of Gulf War I.  The
rising oil prices and depressed travel bookings likely to stem
from a multi-month conflict would be disastrous for the airlines.
These concerns have pressured ALK over the past three trading
sessions.  On Friday the stock closed below $16.00 for the first
time since October.  The bearish MACD and daily stochastics
(5,3,3) are hinting at a retest of the next level of support near
$14.00.  This play will have an exit target just above that level
at $14.06.  For those who are wondering, that huge volume spike
on March 18th occurred after Alaska Air said that it had sold off
$150 million in convertible bonds to finance its losses.  That
news prompted a sell-off that took ALK to a relative low of
$15.70.  This play will not be activated until the stock trades
below that level.  If we're triggered our stop will be set at
$16.69, a penny above the Thursday afternoon high.  More
conservative traders can use a stop slightly above today's high
of $16.15.

Annotated daily chart - ALK:


Picked on March xxth at $xx.xx
Results since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date         04/18/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Timberland - TBL - close: 42.10 change: +0.12 stop: 39.98

TBL's pattern of relative strength continued on Friday.  The Dow
Jones oozed lower throughout the session, but Timberland bucked
the broader market bearishness with a steady intraday uptrend.
Shares finished with a small gain and closed above $42.00 for the
first time since last Friday.  Overall we're pretty pleased with
how TBL traded this week.  The stock completely recouped Monday's
sell-off, moving higher on rising volume with no regard to the
gradual downtrend in the major indexes.  We also noticed
technical strength in shares of Nike (NKE), which is holding near
multi-month highs.  If TBL's uptrend continues it should only be
a matter of days before shares retest its relative high at
$42.40.  Short-term traders could target new entries on a move
above that level, but bear in mind that we'll be closing this
play if TBL trades at or above $44.94.  Last night we raised our
stop to $39.98.  Those with a more conservative strategy could
use a break-even stop at $40.81.

Picked on March 14th at $40.81
Results since picked:    +1.29
Earnings Date         04/17/03 (unconfirmed)




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cooper Tire - CTB - close: 12.42 change: -0.10 stop: 13.11

Any doubts as to whether Cooper Tire was suffering from a
challenging business climate were completely erased this morning.
The company announced before the opening bell that it expects to
earn only 17-21 cents/share for the first quarter - significantly
less than the analyst consensus of 25 cents/share.  Weakness in
the replacement tire market was cited as the primary reason for
the shortfall.  As could be expected, the stock experienced some
heavy selling once the market opened.  Our entry trigger at
$12.24 was reached en route to an intraday low of $12.03.  But in
a surprising development, CTB bounced sharply from that level.
Shares traded near $12.45 for most of the day before finishing
with a loss of 0.79%.  That's only slightly worse than the Dow's
0.67% decline.  The fact that shares did not suffer a more
pronounced decline suggests that an earnings warning may have
already been priced in.  But still, it's awfully tough for the
bulls to make a case for buying CTB.  Today's news of weaker
demand for replacement tires only exacerbates the problems
created by decreased production and declining sales at companies
such as GM.  Next week we'll be looking for Cooper to retrace
this morning's bounce.  A move below $12.00 would offer a
potential entry point for new short positions.  Our stop is set
at $13.11.  Traders looking for a little less upside risk could
use a stop just above Thursday's high of $12.83.

Picked on March 28th at $12.24
Results since picked:    -0.18
Earnings Date         04/19/03 (unconfirmed)





AT&T - T - close: 16.78 change: -0.03 stop: 17.36

Not much to report for AT&T.  The stock continued to trade in a
tight range on Friday, with weakness in the Dow preventing shares
from making another run at resistance at $17.00.  All this
sideways action has created some coiling action on the 10-minute
chart.  For much of today's session shares moved with absolutely
no direction, bouncing back and forth between $16.70 and $16.80
like a ping-pong ball.  T showed some relative strength today
with a fractional pullback, but that could change if further
market weakness drags the stock out of its rangebound pattern.
Conservative traders can continue to use a stop just above
$17.03.  We are not recommending that traders enter new short
positions at this time.

Picked on March 21st at $16.48
Results since picked:    -0.30
Earnings Date         04/24/03 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Best Buy Co - BBY - close: 26.90 change: -1.30 stop: 27.99

BBY has displayed absolutely no ability to find a bid ever since
it was downgraded on Wednesday morning.  The 10-minute chart
shows a steady downtrend that has dragged the stock from the
$30.00 region, towards the 200-dma at $26.41.  The whole-number
support at $28.00 that put a floor under BBY on Thursday
afternoon was broken within minutes of the opening bell this
morning.  Our long play was stopped out for a loss of $2.51, or
8.2%.  The strong volume that accompanied the past two days of
losses and recent bearish MACD crossover are signs that BBY might
extend its decline and violate the multi-month trend of higher
lows.  We would not recommend attempting to buy a rebound from
current levels.

Picked on March 18th at $30.50
Gain since picked:       -2.51
Earnings Date         04/01/03 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Black Box - BBOX - close: 30.50 change: -0.01 stop: 28.69

It's the same old story for Black Box.  The stock continued to
hover below the $31.00 resistance level on Friday while trading
to a one-cent loss on the lowest volume reading since March 11th.
As we said last night, the technicals seem to be hinting at a
breakout, but a lack of leadership from the NASDAQ is keeping the
bulls in check.  In terms of relative strength, it's encouraging
to see that BBOX was basically changed today while both the
NASDAQ and NWX.X networking index gave back more than 1%.  The
Composite is currently sitting at the low end of its recent
trading range.  That leaves about 2% of possible upside until the
next level of resistance at 1400.  Speculative traders could
think about adding long positions if BBOX move above either
$31.00 or $31.38 (the relative high), regardless of whether the
NASDAQ has cleared resistance.  Less aggressive types will want
to wait for the index to break above 1400 before considering new
entries.

Picked on March 19th at $30.86
Results since picked:    -0.36
Earnings Date         05/08/03 (unconfirmed)






=================================================================
Split Trader / Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

2-for-1 Stock Split For Quicksilver

Before the market opened on Friday morning, Quicksilver Inc.
(NYSE: ZQK) announced a 2-for-1 stock split.  The additional
shares will be distributed on May 8th.  The shareholder record
date is April 30th.

Shares are currently holding near all-time highs after moving
sharply higher in reaction to the company's strong earnings report
on March 6th.  Quicksilver announced a net profit that was five
cents better than analyst expectations.  In recent trading, ZQK
has been trading in a narrow range slightly below resistance in
the $32.00-$32.34 area.

ZQK closed at $31.39 on Friday.  For a current quote, click here:

http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=ZQK

About the company
Quiksilver designs, produces and distributes clothing, accessories
and related products for young-minded people and develops brands
that represent a casual lifestyle - driven from a board riding
heritage. Quiksilver's authenticity is evident in its innovative
products, events and retail environments across the globe.
(source: company press release)




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 03-28-2003
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of March 31st
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==========================================
Market Watch for the week of March 31st
==========================================

------------------------
Major Earnings This Week
------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

BNG    Benetton Group        Mon, Mar 31  -----N/A-----        N/A
KMX    CarMax, Inc           Mon, Mar 31  Before the Bell     0.17
CIG    Comp Energ Minas Ger  Mon, Mar 31  Before the Bell      N/A
EP     El Paso Corp.         Mon, Mar 31  Before the Bell     0.15
GMSTE  Gemstar-TV Guide Intl Mon, Mar 31  After the Bell     -0.04
NTLI   NTL INC               Mon, Mar 31  Before the Bell      N/A
TLK    P.T. Telkom           Mon, Mar 31  -----N/A-----        N/A
SCS    Steelcase Inc.        Mon, Mar 31  -----N/A-----      -0.09
UCOMA  UnitedGlobalCom, Inc. Mon, Mar 31  -----N/A-----      -0.77


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BBY    Best Buy Co., Inc.    Tue, Apr  1  Before the Bell     1.08
DCX    DaimlerChrysler       Tue, Apr  1  After the Bell      0.86


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BBBY   Bed Bath & Beyond Inc Wed, Apr  2  After the Bell      0.33
CC     Circuit City Stores   Wed, Apr  2  Before the Bell     0.36
COGN   Cognos                Wed, Apr  2  After the Bell      0.27


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

MSM    MSC Industrial Direct Thu, Apr  3  -----N/A-----       0.17
RIMM   Res In Motion Limited Thu, Apr  3  After the Bell     -0.12


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

AA     ALCOA                 Fri, Apr  4  -----N/A-----       0.21


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

UGI     UGI Corp.                 3:2      Apr.  1st   Apr.  2nd
CTSH    Cognizant Technology      3:1      Apr.  1st   Apr.  2nd
FSCR    Fed Screw Works           5:4      Apr.  1st   Apr.  2nd
UCBH    UCBH Holdings             2:1      Apr.  8th   Apr.  9th
AVD     American Vanguard Corp.   3:2      Apr. 11th   Apr. 14th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Without a doubt the U.S. and the world will be watching the
next installment of the war on Iraq.  This will overshadow
any market moving economic reports.  This week the PMI, truck
and auto sales numbers come out.  Also look for the construction
spending report.  Don't forget next week Wall Street should be
gearing up for Q1 earnings.  Have you heard any warnings lately?

==============================================================
                       -For-

Monday, 03/31/02
----------------
Chicago PMI (DM)        Mar  Forecast:   51.0  Previous:     54.9


Tuesday, 04/01/02
-----------------
Auto Sales (NA)         Mar  Forecast:   5.2M  Previous:     5.2M
Truck Sales (NA)        Mar  Forecast:   6.8M  Previous:     6.9M
ISM Index (DM)          Mar  Forecast:   48.9  Previous:     50.5
Construction Spndng(DM) Feb  Forecast:  -0.4%  Previous:     1.7%


Wednesday, 04/02/02
-------------------
Factory Orders (DM)     Feb  Forecast:  -1.0%  Previous:     1.5%


Thursday, 04/03/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   03/29  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     402K
ISM Service (DM)        Mar  Forecast:   53.0  Previous:     53.9


Friday, 04/04/02
----------------
Nonfarm Payrolls (BB)   Mar  Forecast:   -50K  Previous:    -308K
Unemployment Rate (BB)  Mar  Forecast:   5.9%  Previous:     5.8%
Hourly Earnings (BB)    Mar  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:     0.7%
Average Workweek (BB)   Mar  Forecast:   34.2  Previous:     34.1

Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

UHS     Universal Health Svcs.     40.32     +1.24
FAF     First American Corp        24.73     +1.08
ALOG    Alalogic Corp              46.34     +1.54

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MVK     Maverick Tube Corp         18.71     +1.26
SANG    Sangstat Medical           10.01     +1.13

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

AVP     Avon Products              56.90     +1.35
DRL     Doral Financial            35.50     +1.84
FIC     Fair Isaac & Co            50.35     +2.14
ANSI    Advanced Neuromo Sys.      42.08     +1.09
CYBX    Cyberonics Inc             21.26     +1.51

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BSX     Boston Scientific          41.86     -1.09
IRF     International Rectifier    20.56     -1.09
STRA    Strayer Education          54.50     -2.30

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

GSK     Glaxosmithkline ADR        36.10     -0.76
AVB     AvalonBay Communities      36.88     -0.82
PMI     PMI Group                  25.87     -0.52
JBHT    JB Hunt                    26.90     -0.73
TMP     Tompkins TrustCo           46.35     -0.20




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