PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 07-15-2003 section 1 of 2 Copyright 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Bond Blues Back Watch List: ULBI, CLZR, NANO, DHI and more! Market Sentiment: Bullish or bearish? ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 07-15-2003 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9128.97 - 48.20 9238.01 9091.30 1.91 bln 1048/2182 NASDAQ 1753.21 - 1.60 1777.78 1742.10 1.87 bln 1413/1793 S&P 100 504.07 - 1.12 508.56 501.82 Totals 2451/3975 S&P 500 1000.42 - 3.44 1009.61 996.67 W5000 9640.98 - 35.60 9727.87 9605.24 RUS 2000 475.93 - 2.10 480.85 474.47 DJ TRANS 2573.97 + 1.10 2596.86 2565.46 VIX 21.84 + 0.43 22.34 21.30 VXN 33.95 + 0.06 34.59 32.81 Total Volume 4,018M Total UpVol 1,430M Total DnVol 2,407M 52wk Highs 744 52wk Lows 22 TRIN 0.87 PUT/CALL 0.54 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Bond Blues Back It is not nice to tease the bond junkies especially when they are holding the fate of the economy in their hands. Greenspan talked a big bluff and said all the right things but his words fell on deaf ears. The bond bulls ran for cover despite threats of lower rates ahead. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily Economic reports were good but traders did not applaud. The weekly Chain Store Sales rocketed +0.9% for the week ended July 12th and produced the largest back to back weekly gains since April. Summer weather and steep discounting reportedly produced the gains. Stores saw increased traffic as rains dried up in the eastern part of the country. The Monthly Retail Sales jumped +0.5% and was inline with estimates despite a dip in auto sales. Some employers have already started reducing tax deductions for workers and that money is finding its way into the stores. While that may be the case on a very limited basis the far more likely reason was the current weather and the massive discounting to blow out Easter, Mothers Day and Fathers Day goods that were not sold due to bad weather then. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted the third monthly consecutive gain and was strongly positive at 22.6. That was the official spin on the headline number. That headline number actually fell from 27.6 in June and inventories, back orders, delivery times, prices received and employment all dropped into negative territory. Unfilled order backlog fell to -5.7 from +2.6. Delivery fell to -6.4 from +3.1. Employment fell to -8.6 from zero. Prices received, you know that "unwelcomed decrease in inflation" fell to -14 as pricing power continues to erode. The six-month outlook began to erode as well with a drop to 52.5 from 58.9. I am not saying this was a negative report but it was not as positive as the talking heads tried to spin it. The biggest economic news for the day was not a report but a speech by Greenspan to Congress. The event was not without controversy and a major amount of grandstanding. Greenspan touted the numerous ways he felt the economy was poised to recover and the panel pointed out the numerous things he had done wrong and why the plan would fail. It was not your regular "praise meeting" full of "we have the utmost respect for you" comments. Panel members continually pounded him with verbal assaults so severe that other members publicly apologized for their behavior. Yes, it is an election year and Alan was forced to be the fall guy for the reelection crowd. Alan said the FOMC was prepared to make substantial additional rate cuts to keep the economy on track and to use other weapons at their disposal for a long time to come. Unfortunately nobody believed him. With the Fed funds rate at 1.00% he admitted that any additional rate cuts could hurt interest rate sensitive businesses like money market funds as well as destroy retirement investments for millions of people who depend on CDs and short term interest bearing accounts for income. Alan did not win any friends there and the bond junkies laughed behind his back at what they considered an obvious bluff. He also shot himself in the foot on the threat to use other weapons after he closed the speech with "However, given the now highly stimulative stance of monetary and fiscal policy and well-anchored inflation expectations, the Committee concluded that economic fundamentals are such that situations requiring special policy actions are most unlikely to arise." If the situation is most unlikely to arise then the bond market promptly ignored it and rushed to sell their bonds. The Ten year sold off a full two points and the 30-year a full three points. Yields on the 30-year nearly hit 5% and the ten year hit 3.968%. The interest sensitive stocks got killed with home builders selling off substantially along with utilities. It was a rout as bonds hit three-month lows and gave no indications that anything was going to change. Suddenly the Fed's carefully crafted plan to keep interest rates low simply disintegrated before their eyes. With refinancing applications falling -22% last week and rates soaring this week there could be an even bigger drop off ahead. The refi consumer as the pillar of the recovering economy has died. It is now time for the business community to step up to the table or the winter may begin early. Adding to the concern was the newly released budget numbers showing the deficit for 2003 to be -$455 billion and 2004 to be -$475 billion. Oh, did you know that the 2004 numbers do not include any spending for Iraq? Considering it is currently costing $4 billion a month and the best estimates are for another 2-3 years then we could easily add $50 billion to every estimate for years. That puts us well over $500 billion for 2004 without trying. Greenspan was asked if we could tax cut ourselves back into prosperity and I do not need to tell you the answer. Long-term investors are very worried that this massive debt load coupled with a sputtering economy could combine to squelch the recovery before it starts. (just reporting here, not expressing an opinion) If the economy was firing on all cylinders then deficit spending would add to the fuel and power the rocket. The bottom line was bond junkies running for cover and selling bonds with both hands. This is normally good for the market if that cash is headed for equities but there was no cash flowing in that direction today. The problem it appears is the carry trade. That means hedge funds, mutual funds, large corporate borrowers, etc, borrow short term money from various sources like Japan where interest rates are near zero and buying long term bonds in the U.S. That works well as long as bonds are going up or are stable but with bonds falling through the floor those trades have to be unwound quickly. The key level according to the bond junkies is a 4.0% yield on the ten year. Should that level be broken the amount of debt that would begin to unwind could be over a trillion dollars. This massive fund shift could cause ever escalating rates to the point where they spiral out of control and begin to feed on themselves. What a wonderful web of interrelated dependencies we feed on. The point here is the Fed has lost control and they are at the mercy of the markets. They really do not have any bullets left in their gun and the bluff is not working. Greenspan will have an opportunity to try and improve his delivery and restate his case when he repeats his testimony to the Senate. Don't look for any new facts to appear but the delivery should be drastically different. He will have seen the bond drop today and be trying to grasp at any straw to recover control. Going to be an uphill task. The earnings week is in full swing with over 25% of the S&P announcing earnings this week. The companies already announced have run the gamut of massive charges from companies like Boeing, massive losses from derivatives like FNM and massive warnings like Lucent but what else is new. Add in the funny numbers like the ETN gains from tax rate changes and just plain earnings misses from companies like RMBS. It is not your normal earnings season but after the bell today we saw the first major tech try to steal some positive headlines. INTC beat the street by a penny and edged slightly past revenue estimates. They raised their gross margin estimates for the remainder of the year due to product mix and the slow demise of the AMD competition. BUT, after a rocket ramp in the futures after the announcement, Andy Bryant, the Intel spin doctor appeared on CNBC and said it was not a recovery yet. He said it was more like a return to normalcy where the tech improvements over the last two years were starting to pay off in profits. Intel stock paused for a few moments and then soared ahead as shorts raced to cover. The futures however rolled over immediately and have been drifting down ever since. Remember the good news from YHOO and JNPR were met with selling as the good news was already priced in. The Intel news may have surprised those that were expecting a normal 2Q miss as has occurred in the past and that lack of a miss is powering the INTC stock. Also hurting the after hours trading were misses or warnings from LU, TER, SCHL, PHTN, ELON, IKON, CDN, PVSW and Motorola. Several companies met or slightly beat estimates and guided inline with estimates. Inline will get you nothing in a market that is priced to perfection. If you cannot guide higher and beat then you are toast. Wait, YHOO and JNPR beat and guided higher and they were still clobbered. Get the point? Besides an instant replay of Greenspan on Wednesday we will get the CPI, Business Inventories, Industrial Production, Housing Index and Mortgage Survey. All the majors will be out before the market opens and should provide plenty of economic fodder for the bond bulls to chew on instead of Greenspan. The big gun for tomorrow is IBM after the close. That could be one more nail in the coffin if they do not blow the doors off their estimates. Offsetting the INTC gains in the Dow will be weakness in Citigroup after they announced at the close a $6 billion buy of Sears troubled credit card division. C was trading down after hours. Also, MO is still under pressure after an Illinois court said the previous court was in error when it changed the bond requirement. The markets are poised to run but the direction is unclear. It was announced today that the recent "fat finger" trades in the Dow and S&P futures were real trades and were not errors after all. This is a sobering thought. The volume of trades required to push the Dow futures to near 8600 last week and the S&P to 990 on Monday are huge. These are normally dealt out in small doses and the multiple large sell orders hitting the market all at once have scared many traders out of taking long positions. This undercurrent of uncertainty right at the time that the market normally peaks in July is giving added influence to the dance with the Fed. I have talked about it for several weeks now and the time is at hand. This is the week that would typically see the July peak and the beginning of the July slide. Once IBM, MSFT and the other 25% of the S&P companies announce this week the earnings outcome for all companies will be known. There will be no reason to wait around for the next surprise because there will be no more surprises. Sure some will beat and some will miss but historically the majority of the good earnings come this week from the giant blue chips. That leaves the rest of the pack bringing up the rear. If you are watching a marathon with tens of thousands of runners once the leaders cross the finish line the excitement fades. You may still have a friend that you are waiting for buried deep in the pack but the rest of the faces become a blur once the leaders break the tape and draw the crowd of reporters. All attention will be on INTC, IBM and MSFT and then bonds and then the second half economy. If the bulls are going to pull a July rally out of their hat then this is the week to do it. If they can't do it this week then it is all over but the shouting. The next ramp job typically begins in August and that gives traders a couple weeks or more to shuffle portfolios based on the July results and guidance for the remainder of the year. Did I mention this is option expiration week as well? Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively! Jim Brown ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Ultralife Batteries - ULBI - close: 11.40 change: +1.40 WHAT TO WATCH: After trading in a gradually rising range for the past 6 weeks, shares of ULBI broke out on huge volume on news the company had landed a $2.7 million battery order from the military. We don't want to chase the stock higher at this point, but a pullback and rebound above $10.00 should afford a solid entry point. --- Candela Corporation - CLZR - close: 14.22 change: +1.57 WHAT TO WATCH: Definitely out of step with the rest of the market on Tuesday, shares of CLZR soared on the heels of a Needham upgrade from Hold to Buy. Buying volume surged to four times the ADV and the stock added more than 12% to reach its best level since early 2000. Look for a pullback to fill today's gap to set up a solid entry ahead of the next push up the charts. Take note of the way CLZR has been trading for the past several months -- surge to a new high, consolidate and repeat. --- Nanometrics Inc. - NANO - close: 9.03 change: +1.03 WHAT TO WATCH: Strength is still the dominant theme in the Semiconductor sector, and NANO is using that strength to its advantage, vaulting to another new high for the year on Tuesday with a nearly 13% gain. Note the similar pattern with NANO, which is break out, consolidate and repeat. Look for this move to consolidate near the $8 level to provide entry before the next breakout, which ought to take the stock over $10. --- D. R. Horton - DHI - close: 28.35 change: -1.95 WHAT TO WATCH: Housing stocks got slammed on Tuesday as Treasury yields soared. This yield action is going to be very bad for housing growth, if it continues, and that was reflected in the very bearish trade in the Housing index ($DJUSHB). DHI got smacked for a more than 6% loss, bringing it right back to major support at $28. A break below that level may find some support at the 50-dma, but then looks vulnerable all the way to $25 and possibly $23.50. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== JBHT $44.51 - No, it isn't Jabba the Hut! JBHT is a trucker and in case you haven't noticed, these stocks have been on the move lately on the continued expectation of economic recovery. JBHT broke out big time following a blowout earnings report this morning. Look for that gap to fill back into the $41-42 area and then ride the wave higher. VSEA $35.50 - While it only has a little over a week to go until reporting earnings (7/24), it is hard to argue with the VSEA price chart, as the bulls continue to stamp out a pattern of higher lows and higher highs. Today's gap needs to fill, but then there could be a strong breakout if the stock can get over major resistance near $37.50. GLDN $30.09 - Is it a top forming or are the bulls just prepping for another breakout? It's hard to tell right now, but just based on the strong volume since GLDN last broke out near the $25 level, this is another bullish setup. Use a trade above $30.55 as a trigger. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Bullish or bearish? Equities declined today as treasuries made huge moves lower and the US Dollar Index moved higher. We also witnessed a large spike in options volatility for the Nasdaq 100 as measured by the QQV, which added just under 10% to close at 30.45, while the VIX gained .43 to 21.84 and the VXN .06 to 33.95. We generally expect to see an increase in options volatility on a down day, but the spike in the QQV was out of the ordinary. Meanwhile, the CBOE put to call ratio was printing extreme readings, but to the downside, with the equity put to call ratio below .40 for most of the session, and the total put to call ratio barely clearing .50. The spike in the QQV is a panic-type indication, while the put to call data reflected just the opposite. How do we read it? Options volatility increases as options premium increases. On its own, it indicates that one of the two parties to a trade wants the contract badly enough to pay extra for it. The put to call ratio at low levels indicates a predominance of call volume over put volume. It appears that the market was willing to pay more for QQQ calls today in particular. The VIX and VXN made gains, but nothing approaching that of the QQV. To determine whether the action was bullish or bearish depends on which party was doing the buying. If it was institutions buying back QQQ calls of which they were short, the action would appear bullish to me, while if it was dip-buyers actively going long QQQ calls in anticipation of a blast higher, it looks more bearish. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 9353 52-week Low : 7197 Current : 9128 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9131 50-dma: 8928 200-dma: 8431 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1015 52-week Low : 768 Current : 1000 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 996 50-dma: 970 200-dma: 899 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1316 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1294 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 2380 50-dma: 1200 200-dma: 1061 ----------------------------------------------------------------- There isn't much more to say about the VIX and VXN tonight that Jon didn't already mention above. As expected on the down market day, these two both edged higher but not by any significant amount. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.72 -0.81 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) = 32.80 -0.86 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.54 738,400 395,388 Equity Only 0.40 602,842 241,528 OEX 0.66 39,943 26,619 QQQ 0.38 73,599 28,096 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 73.1 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 81.0 + 1 Bull Confirmed Dow Indust. 83.3 - 3 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 80.0 + 1 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 83.0 + 1 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 1.10 10-Day Arms Index 1.06 21-Day Arms Index 1.18 55-Day Arms Index 1.14 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1020 1354 Decliners 1856 1666 New Highs 185 300 New Lows 12 3 Up Volume 605M 772M Down Vol. 1212M 1113M Total Vol. 1831M 1905M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/08/03 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 There was little change last week in the large S&P contracts. It appears both big and small traders are waiting to see how the initial burst of Q2 earnings come in and how investors react to them. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/17/03 519,887 501,401 18,486 1.8% 06/24/03 405,382 447,526 (42,144) (4.9%) 07/01/03 415,976 453,005 (37,029) (4.3%) 07/08/03 415,053 453,720 (38,667) (4.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 18,486 - 6/17/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/17/03 202,040 184,028 18,012 4.6% 06/24/03 159,405 85,182 74,223 30.3% 07/01/03 150,232 75,937 74,295 32.8% 07/08/03 152,239 74,749 77,490 34.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 The same holds true for the commercials here in the e-minis, as they appear to be waiting before making any big commitments. However, we've seen a drastic turnaround in the small traders sentiment going from extremely bullish to know the most bearish in months. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/17/03 306,279 661,114 (354,835) (36.6%) 06/24/03 150,208 201,724 (51,516) (14.6%) 07/01/03 175,893 216,993 (41,100) (10.5%) 07/08/03 192,815 224,124 (31,309) ( 7.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: (41,100) - 07/01/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/17/03 466,837 70,609 396,228 73.7% 06/24/03 84,081 44,347 39,734 30.9% 07/01/03 57,639 67,449 9,810 7.8% 07/08/03 56,394 72,090 15,696 12.2% Most bearish reading of the year: 9,810 - 07/01/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 NASDAQ futures remain in a holding pattern. Commercials remain net short and small traders remain net long. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/17/03 60,964 65,561 (4,597) (3.6%) 06/24/03 28,780 47,425 (18,645) (24.4%) 07/01/03 28,662 48,265 (19,603) (25.5%) 07/08/03 30,489 48,311 (17,822) (22.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (19,603) - 07/01/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/17/03 29,400 23,232 6,168 11.7% 06/24/03 24,519 7,064 17,455 55.3% 07/01/03 26,777 8,498 18,279 51.8% 07/08/03 26,136 9,035 17,101 48.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Ditto here too. There's almost no change in the commercials' net long position in the Industrial futures and there is a small bump in the small traders net short position. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/17/03 20,625 18,593 2,032 5.1% 06/24/03 19,373 11,565 7,808 25.2% 07/01/03 20,504 11,871 8,633 26.7% 07/08/03 20,752 11,860 8,892 27.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/17/03 9,092 9,398 ( 306) ( 1.6%) 06/24/03 5,950 7,442 (1,492) (11.1%) 07/01/03 5,799 6,822 (1,023) ( 8.1%) 07/08/03 5,005 8,093 (3,088) (23.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 07-15-2003 section 2 of 2 Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Play of the Day: Another New High Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Play-of-the-Day (bullish) =============== Synopsys, Inc. - SNPS - cls: 65.91 change: +0.38 stop: 63.20*new* Company Description: Synopsis is a supplier of electronic design automation software to the global electronics industry. The company's products are used by designers of integrated circuits (ICs), including system-on-a- chip ICs, and the electronic products (such as computers, cell phones, and internet routers) that use such ICs to automate significant portions of their chip design process. SNPS' products offer its customers the opportunity to design ICs that are optimized for speed, area, power consumption and production cost, while reducing overall design time. Why we like it: While it didn't provide the follow through to the upside that we expected after scaling the $64.25 resistance, SNPS is making a convincing show of wanting to continue its rally. The mid-week swoon found support at the 10-dma (now at $63.52) and the stock rebounded to close at $64.50. This is encouraging, as old resistance in the $63.50-64.00 area now seems to be providing support for the next leg up the chart. The only fly in the ointment appears to be the fact that Friday's rebound came on light volume that barely topped half of the ADV. Bargain hunters can continue to target shoot new entries on intraday dips above the 10-dma, while those looking for a momentum entry will need to wait for a decisive rally through the Wednesday's intraday high ($65.67) before jumping into the fray. On a move severe dip, the $62 level should provide strong support, so we're maintaining our stop at $61.75. Why This is our Play of the Day Amidst all the wild gyrations already witnessed this week, it has been rather amazing to see how well the Semiconductor index (SOX.X) has held up so far. Gapping back above $400 at yesterday's open, and then holding it over both of the past two sessions' closes is pretty impressive in light of the weakness in the rest of the market. Our SNPS play hasn't been any slacker either, consistently creeping higher. Yesterday's close above $65.50 was another new closing high, followed by yet another today after the stock found resistance again at $66. Given the steady rate of rise over the past several weeks, we're looking for SNPS to continue what appears to be a very sustainable climb rat. Successive dips near the $64 level can be used to initiate new positions in anticipation of a run towards our initial $68 target. Note that we've raised our stop to $63.20 tonight, which is just below last Thursday's intraday low ($63.35) and the 20-dma ($63.22). Annotated Chart of SNPS: Picked on June 25th at $63.59 Change since picked +2.32 Earnings Date 08/20/03 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 1.51 mln ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change STT State Street Corp 44.80 +0.80 MTG MGIC Investments 53.47 +1.77 MHK Mohawk Industries Inc 57.90 +0.80 RDN Radian Group 42.74 +2.08 PMI The PMI Group 30.94 +0.81 UHS Universal Health Services 46.08 +1.38 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- HMA Health Mgmt Assoc 19.70 +1.04 ASYT Asyst Technologies 10.79 +1.13 EPIQ EPIQ Systems 19.62 +1.82 VIRL Virage Logic Corp 10.69 +2.25 ZIGO Zygo Corp 10.18 +1.38 DRXR Drexler Technology 16.74 +1.12 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- MWD Morgan Stanley 48.73 +1.40 MER Merrill Lynch & Co 53.80 +2.39 ACN Accenture Ltd 20.55 +1.70 GILD Gilead Sciences 69.11 +1.86 BG Bunge Ltd 30.18 +1.23 LRCX Lam Research Corp 22.31 +1.39 RMBS Rambus Inc 20.17 +1.27 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AZN AstraZeneca Plc 39.80 -1.95 SC Shell Transport & Trading 37.30 -1.07 MO Altria Group 40.50 -1.46 GSK GlaxoSmithKline (ADR) 37.60 -2.00 BA Boeing Co 33.44 -1.14 FRX Forest Labs 49.25 -5.08 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- IMDC Inamed Corp 55.00 -1.25 DNEX Dionex Corp 39.54 -0.65 CRR Carbo Ceramics Inc 38.40 -0.20 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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