PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 07-24-2003 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Surprised? Watch List: AIG, POOL, IGT, WHR, MERQ and more! Market Sentiment: Setting your sights ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 07-24-2003 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9112.51 - 81.70 9281.42 9106.42 1.87 bln 1549/1670 NASDAQ 1701.42 - 17.80 1740.80 1700.29 1.87 bln 1512/1697 S&P 100 493.65 - 4.14 503.12 493.31 Totals 3061/3367 S&P 500 981.60 - 7.01 998.89 981.07 W5000 9457.57 - 57.90 9612.58 9453.27 RUS 2000 465.26 - 0.88 472.51 465.25 DJ TRANS 2592.95 + 20.80 2612.83 2571.09 VIX 20.46 + 0.02 20.66 19.63 VXN 31.45 + 0.67 31.68 30.10 Total Volume 3,989M Total UpVol 1,566M Total DnVol 2,383M 52wk Highs 517 52wk Lows 26 TRIN 1.30 PUT/CALL 0.75 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Surprised? I was. Not that we had a big drop late in the afternoon but that we had the big bounce in the morning. Most bulls I know were scratching their heads at the close today the same way I was scratching my head on Tuesday afternoon. I was in denial all morning today and when the drop did begin it came so fast I immediately became suspicious despite feeling relief. Relief that I was not losing my mind over my July analysis. We are a long way from proving that last statement but significantly closer tonight than we were this morning. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart S&P Chart The day got off to a flying start with the first Jobless Claims number under 400,000 in 23 weeks. The 386,000 headline number triggered massive short covering as surprised bulls started buying and surprised bears began running for cover. The general consensus was that a real economic recovery had begun. Hold that thought for a minute. If the Jobless Claims were really under 400K would that mean a recovery had begun? No, just that the statistical anomaly of 22 weeks over 400K had finally run its course. It would take a string of weeks under 400K with decreasing weekly numbers to even begin to indicate a jobs recovery had begun. Now the bad news. This was "seasonally adjusted data." The raw number was still over 400K, way over at 423,972. The numbers are adjusted for a normal influx of workers furloughed from automakers in the last two weeks of July while the retooling process takes place. This is historically when this takes place. However, things are a little more fluid this year and the adjustment could be over done. With automakers cutting production earlier and adjusting assembly lines to compensate for the weaker demand we may not have the same worker fluctuation that we have always had in late July. All this boils down to you cannot trust the numbers and they really do not mean anything. It was one week and not a trend. Another jobs report, the Monthly Mass Layoff report, showed that 1,691 new layoffs were announced in June for 157,595 workers. This was only slightly below the 173,784 for May and 161,095 for April. Definitely no change in trend here. The manufacturing sector continued to lose the most workers. Layoffs in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, Texas, and Ohio accounted for 58% of all layoff events and 55% of initial claims for unemployment insurance in June. Granted this is a lagging report as it is layoffs announced in June but the actual layoffs occur over the next 90 days from the announcement. That puts us right in the middle of the layoff period. Despite these reports the market charged off to within 38 points of the high for the last 12-months at 9319. Did the economy suddenly improve overnight? Was there a flood of positive earnings guidance from major companies? Did Saddam Hussein surrender? No to all of those questions. In fact there were several high profile comments to suggest otherwise. International Paper beat the street by two cents but warned that they were seeing no improvement in the economy. They said they were anticipating a very tough environment with demand remaining flat. Sales were less than expected and prices are declining. FBN, Furniture Brands International, the largest residential furniture maker in the U.S. said it sees no signs of an economic rebound and warned for the rest of the year. They said margins were compressing and they were seeing increased promotional pressure. Whirlpool dropped -3.14 after beating the street mostly on gains in their global businesses not the U.S. business. Investors were concerned that the shrinking margins and lack of U.S. gains were a sign for the future. After the close today VRSN posted earnings inline with estimates but said the prolong slump in technology spending was continuing. The CEO said the information technology and telecom recovery has not yet materialized. KLAC said they were not seeing a broad based increase in business activity but some of their customers were reporting an upturn in their business that could produce an upturn in sales in the future. Plenty of qualifiers in that sentence. Borland Software guided flat to down based on seeing no improvement in the economy. FLEX announced results of +0.4% that missed street estimates and warned that revenues would be lower due to weak demand. The FLEX CEO said it was difficult to know if an upturn was under way. Let's see falling sales and lowered guidance might be a clue. CLS also reported a loss of -18 cents when analysts were only expecting -4 cents. The guided lower for the next quarter and said they were going to layoff another 2000 to 3000 workers. CLS and FLEX are two of the biggest electronics manufacturers and if a recovery was underway they would be the first to see it. JDSU, the largest supplier of fiber optic components said sales going forward would be weaker. The JDSU CEO said the market remains tough and we really do not have any visibility from our customers. NT reported a loss on $2.3 billion in sales and said the business conditions remain difficult and their customers were continuing to spend cautiously. The said they remain cautious about the next six months. TQNT warned that 3Q and 4Q revenue and earnings would be below prior estimates. Avaya posted a small profit on sinking sales but did say they were seeing some revenue stabilization and some positive signs that IT is strengthening. Also, very qualified. Other companies that raised guidance included MSCC, PCLN and BNBN. EBAY posted its best earnings ever at 37 cents, raised guidance and announced a 2:1 split. EBAY dropped -$5.00 in after hours. Why? EBAY, like the market was priced to perfection and investors expected EBAY to beat estimates by a wider margin. The company said revenue could reach $2.75 billion, a jump of +$250 million. EBAY is one of the highest priced Internet stocks with a PE over 120. Another problem was a reduction in guidance due to purchase of the Chinese auction site EachNet. That will subtract -2 cents in the 3Q and -1 cent in the 4Q. EBAY has a market cap of $37 billion, about one seventh of Wal-Mart's with revenue that is only 1% of Wal-Mart's. Gateway ended the earnings for the day with another loss of -22 cents on falling revenue. GTW back earlier guidance of -19 cents for the next quarter although those numbers tend to fade around mid quarter. They have lost money 10 of the last 11 quarters. GTW actually said that despite a decline in their PC sales they were seeing signs of life in the market. Considering they are nearly giving away computers to maintain any market share in the battle between Dell and HPQ they are probably finding a few takers on their promotional products. After the smoke cleared today and the charts quit moving it was pretty clear that a couple of buy programs, likely asset allocation from bonds, and some serious short covering pushed the Dow back over 9250 but the plan ran out of steam trying to hold it there. When the S&P failed to hold the 994 level (992 for futures) the bottom fell out in a hurry. Considering it took until 2:15 for that failure to occur it was a pretty spectacular effort. After the morning bounce the war was waged in a very narrow range and the vultures lined up on the sidelines waiting to see up was going to get trampled. The bulls lost. There were multiple rumors helping to torch the rally. One had the terror alert level being raised due to a retaliation plot after the death of Udai and Qusai. Another had a single engine plane zooming in on a presidential motorcade. Still another had the big three brokerages Salomon, Goldman and JP Morgan dumping huge S&P sell programs on the futures market. The last one may have some shred of truth. The fact that the rumors were flying emphasized that some bears were out on a limb. When they are about to go down for a big loss some will resort to anything to try and stimulate the market in their direction. If that was the intent they did a good job as the Nasdaq fell all the way back to 1700 once again and the Dow is poised to break 9100 at the open if the negative futures tonight hold until tomorrow. Helping mix things up will be Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 and Home Sales at 10:am. The real economic problems don't begin until next week when the calendar begins looking like a mine field in Korea. ISM, Confidence, Jobs, Sentiment, GDP, PMI, ECI, Beige Book, Income, Spending. Put on your flack jacket beginning on Monday. This could lead to some more weakness tomorrow. The massive drop at the close that turned a +100 point gain into nearly a -100 point loss has probably given some bulls indigestion. 60% of the S&P have now reported earnings and 70% of the Dow. With the balance of the earnings spread out over the next several weeks there is nothing anyone will learn that they have not already heard. The recovery is limping along at best and the markets have failed at higher levels four times since mid June. If they are going higher they have a tough road ahead and a lot of traders to convince that the July decline is not going to happen this year. Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively! Jim Brown ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- American International Group - AIG - close: 62.20 change: +1.95 WHAT TO WATCH: Beating earnings by a couple cents this morning was enough to break AIG above the $61 resistance level that has kept the bulls in check since January and it made that move on very strong volume. A pullback to test that breakout level could setup a nice bullish play with an initial target of $66. --- SCP Pool Corporation - POOL - close: 37.95 change: +2.00 WHAT TO WATCH: Record-setting earnings vaulted shares of POOL higher on Thursday by more than 5.5%, giving another leg to the breakout move already in progress. This marks a new all-time high for the stock an judging by the strong volume, there's no end in sight. Look for some consolidation of today's breakout move and then look to enter new bullish positions on a rebound from above $36, which should now be strong support. --- International Game Technology - IGT - close: 26.85 change: +0.62 WHAT TO WATCH: Despite a sharp pullback in the broad market this afternoon, IGT held tough near the high of the day and looks like it is ready to breakout again, continuing the strong bullish action that took a brief pause following the stock's recent 4- for-1 split. Look for entry on a breakout to new highs above $27.15. --- Whirlpool Corp. - WHR - close: 62.81 change: -3.14 WHAT TO WATCH: Smashed lower by nearly 5% on Friday, WHR showed the visible signs of investor displeasure following its earnings report this morning. Following a failed bounce from just below $63, the stock rolled over at the end of the day and looks poised to deliver a major breakdown. Strong support has been evident for more than a month just above $62, and a break of that level could have some serious downside on the menu. Look for initial support near the 50-dma, and then target a move back down to $57- 58. --- Mercury Interactive - MERQ - close: 41.39 change: +0.52 WHAT TO WATCH: While at first glance the chart doesn't look pretty, MERQ has been consistently finding support near its 50- dma and did so again earlier this week. With solid earnings already under its belt, the stock looks poised to take another run at its recent highs near $45.50. Use a trigger of $42, just above today's intraday high. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== MENT $16.19 - Popping sharply higher this morning on the heels of its strong earnings and increased guidance for Q3, shares of MENT are right on the cusp of a strong breakout. The stock has been working higher in an ascending channel since early March and today's rebound from the bottom of that channel certainly looks encouraging. Wait for the breakout over $16.60 and target a quick move to the $18.00-18.50 resistance area. BDX $36.90 - In an all too rare example of "sell the news" shares of BDX were punished today for 'only' beating estimates by 3 cents and suffered a nearly 4.5% slide on heavy volume. The closing action brought the stock right to the edge of a major breakdown and based on the heavy volume, that breakdown could occur as early as tomorrow. Trigger on a drop under $36.40 and target a move to the 200-dma. UHS $46.82 - Following yesterday's breakout, UHS pulled back on Thursday, testing old resistance at $46.50 as new support. A rebound from above $46 may serve as a launching pad for this strong Health Care stock to make a run at the $49-50 resistance zone. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Setting your sights Jonathan Levinson The VIX broke below 20 today and stayed there for several hours today, as the price of gold broke 360. In the meantime, the put to call ratio was looking moderate, the oscillators were edging toward possibly higher levels, and the US Dollar Index was rallying off its lows. There was a bullish surprise in the jobs data as well, with initial claims falling below 400,000 for the first time in several months. This last is news to cheer. The markets put in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows this week, with a "senseless" rally on the news of Hussein's sons being killed. Ben Bernanke held out the promise of a fresh assault on the value of the dollar, which would be as bullish for equities as it was the last time he did it during the fall of 2002. It's difficult to know which of our many indicators to follow in divining market direction. Other than by trading mechanically, which many do, one must rely on a healthy dose of intuition in the attempt to "hear" the combined message of the indicators. To practice this art requires not tighter focus, but distance from the screen. Today's selling was "impulsive", insofar as it exceeded the speed and extent of the buying surges during recent sessions. Once again, on a longer term basis, it feels as if the top of the rally is in. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 9353 52-week Low : 7197 Current : 9112 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9132 50-dma: 9002 200-dma: 8482 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1015 52-week Low : 768 Current : 981 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 990 50-dma: 977 200-dma: 905 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1316 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1253 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1269 50-dma: 1216 200-dma: 1076 ----------------------------------------------------------------- There was much commotion made today over the VIX finally piercing its historical sell signal of 20 today. Typically, when the VIX hits 20 it's a sign that the markets have topped and further weakness is in store. The VIX has been vacillating above 20 for so long that many felt we may never actually see the 20 level hit. Now just because the VIX hit 20 today doesn't mean the markets are going to drop tomorrow. Using the volatility index is not an exact science. We could easily see it trade down to 19 or lower, which usually means investor bullishness is reaching extremes. However, we can't ignore this signal and bullish traders are advised to monitor their stop losses carefully. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.44 +0.00 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) = 31.45 +0.67 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.75 653,637 488,014 Equity Only 0.64 515,611 332,345 OEX 0.59 33,358 19,567 QQQ 2.03 30,648 62,359 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 69.5 - 2 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 76.0 - 2 Bull Confirmed Dow Indust. 86.6 + 3 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 76.2 + 0 Bull Correction S&P 100 84.0 + 1 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 0.93 10-Day Arms Index 0.96 21-Day Arms Index 1.11 55-Day Arms Index 1.13 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1384 1443 Decliners 1463 1594 New Highs 105 185 New Lows 21 11 Up Volume 772M 748M Down Vol. 1066M 1095M Total Vol. 1846M 1858M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/15/03 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Stuck in limbo. The large S&P contracts saw little movement by both the small traders and the large commercial traders. Investors could be waiting to get some sort of reading on trader sentiment after the first week of earnings has been completed. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/24/03 405,382 447,526 (42,144) (4.9%) 07/01/03 415,976 453,005 (37,029) (4.3%) 07/08/03 415,053 453,720 (38,667) (4.5%) 07/15/03 414,020 453,033 (39,013) (4.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 18,486 - 6/17/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/24/03 159,405 85,182 74,223 30.3% 07/01/03 150,232 75,937 74,295 32.8% 07/08/03 152,239 74,749 77,490 34.2% 07/15/03 148,716 70,279 78,437 35.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 The S&P e-mini contracts saw more shuffling than the larger contracts (above) but overall there is little to discern. Except for the slight less bearish bias in the Commercials who bumped up their long positions while scaling back a few of their shorts, which effectively reduced their net short to a meager 4500 contracts. Meanwhile the small traders lightened up on both long and short contracts but remain rather bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/24/03 150,208 201,724 (51,516) (14.6%) 07/01/03 175,893 216,993 (41,100) (10.5%) 07/08/03 192,815 224,124 (31,309) ( 7.5%) 07/15/03 214,274 218,765 ( 4,491) ( 1.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: ( 4,491) - 07/15/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/24/03 84,081 44,347 39,734 30.9% 07/01/03 57,639 67,449 (9,810) (7.8%) 07/08/03 56,394 72,090 (15,696) (12.2%) 07/15/03 45,372 54,654 (9,282) (9.3%) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,696) - 07/08/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Much like the larger S&P futures there was little change in the NASDAQ 100 futures. Yet we must note one exception. The shuffling in the commercial long/short positions produced the most bearish reading in months. Close a few long contracts here, add a few short contracts here and we have a new relative high in net short positions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/24/03 28,780 47,425 (18,645) (24.4%) 07/01/03 28,662 48,265 (19,603) (25.5%) 07/08/03 30,489 48,311 (17,822) (22.6%) 07/15/03 28,467 49,154 (20,687) (26.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (20,687) - 07/15/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/24/03 24,519 7,064 17,455 55.3% 07/01/03 26,777 8,498 18,279 51.8% 07/08/03 26,136 9,035 17,101 48.6% 07/15/03 26,489 8,004 18,485 53.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Somewhat interesting behavior by the commercials last week. They scaled down their short positions, which significantly bumped up their net long holdings over all. This is effectively telling us that institutions still think the Industrials well be stronger in the coming weeks. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/24/03 19,373 11,565 7,808 25.2% 07/01/03 20,504 11,871 8,633 26.7% 07/08/03 20,752 11,860 8,892 27.3% 07/15/03 21,607 7,855 13,752 46.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/24/03 5,950 7,442 (1,492) (11.1%) 07/01/03 5,799 6,822 (1,023) ( 8.1%) 07/08/03 5,005 8,093 (3,088) (23.6%) 07/15/03 5,475 9,717 (4,242) (27.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 07-24-2003 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Play of the Day: Golden! Closed Play : BMS Split Announcements: EBAY, OSK Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Play-of-the-Day (bullish) =============== Newmont Mining - NEM - close: 35.40 change: +0.12 stop: 32.90 Company Description: Newmont Mining Corporation is a holding company and is principally engaged in gold mining. As of the end of 2002, the company had gold reserves of 86.9 million equity ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 63,000 square miles. NEM has operations in North America, South America, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Turkey. In 2002, the company obtained more than 69% of its equity gold production from politically and economically stable countries, namely the United States, Canada and Australia. Why we like it: It doesn't seem to matter whether the concern is inflation or deflation, it is nearly impossible to argue with the fact that gold is well established in its bullish long-term trend and gold stocks have been soaring again over the past week. The largest and strongest of gold stocks, NEM confirmed that bullishness on Wednesday, by breaking out above the $35 level for the first time since late 1997. The actual level of the breakout appears to be $34, as that resistance level has been holding the stock back since the middle of June. After breaking out to new 52-week highs in early June, the stock has been consolidating that breakout between $31-34 and confirmed its bullish state with today's 5.6% gain. Judging by the volume that accompanied today's move (80% above the ADV), this is a strong breakout and we're looking for the run to continue, possibly right into the company's earnings report on August 5th. The most recent dip to the 50-dma near $31 was met with solid buying, providing yet another measure of the stock's strength. With gold prices significantly higher than a year ago and production costs remaining fixed, investors appear to be looking for a positive report from the company when it releases earnings. And with gold prices on the rise again, odds are good for positive future guidance. Judging by the strength of today's bullish move, investors are getting aboard for a good old fashioned momentum run into the event. While there is some mild resistance near $36, if the increasing volume is any indication, NEM may just blast right on through, bringing our $39 target into view as a tangible pre- earnings goal. While momentum traders can certainly consider entries on a push through Wednesday's $35.30 intraday high, we'd prefer to see a pullback and rebound from the $33.50-34.00 area, confirming old resistance as new support, as well as filling in today's gap. Place stops initially at $32.90, which is just below Monday's intraday low of $32.93. Why This is our Play of the Day Normally, we wouldn't get excited about a 12-cent gain, but in light of the strong volume and weakness throughout much of the market, we're pretty happy with NEM's performance on its first day out of the gate. Nearly matching yesterday's very strong 7.6 million share volume, the stock topped 7 million on Thursday, trading just shy of $36 before getting hit by selling as the rest of the market melted down in the afternoon. But NEM caught a solid bounce from the $35 level to close in the black. Gold futures surged another $3 to $362 on Thursday and as long as economic uncertainty has the yellow metal in favor, look for NEM to continue its winning ways. We'd still prefer a pullback near $34 to provide for the best entries on the subsequent rebound, although we may have to settle for a rebound from the $34.75-35.00 area. Momentum entries may work above $36, but we're less in favor of that approach due to the proximity of the upper Bollinger band. Annotated Chart of NEM: Picked on July 20th at $35.28 Change since picked +0.12 Earnings Date 8/05/03 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 4.22 mln ================================================================= Active Trader / Non-Tech Stocks ================================================================= =========== CLOSED PLAY =========== -------------- Closed Bearish -------------- Bemis Company - BMS - close: 43.81 change: +0.36 stop: 43.90 After accidentally holding the play over the company's earnings release, it looked like we had caught a lucky break, with shares of BMS still confined to a narrow and weak trading range. But in a sort of delayed reaction, the stock surged sharply higher at the open on Thursday, triggering our tightened stop enroute to an intraday high of $44.55. Despite the late-day pullback from that early ramp, we've got to abide by our stop and close the play tonight for a small gain. Picked on July 9th at $45.18 Change since picked -1.37 Earnings Date 07/23/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 267 K ================================================================= Stock Split Announcements ================================================================= EBAY auctions off a 2-for-1 stock split After the closing bell, EBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) reported its Q2 earnings announcement. In that report it was revealed that the Board of Directors announced a 2-for-1 stock split of the company's common shares. The company's stock split will be payable on August 28th, 2003, to shareholders on record as of August 4th. The stock split will be in the form of a 100% stock dividend. This is EBAY's first stock split since the second quarter of 2000. About the company: eBay is the world's online marketplace(TM). Founded in 1995, eBay created a powerful platform for the sale of goods and services by a passionate community of individuals and businesses. On any given day, there are millions of items across thousands of categories for sale on eBay. eBay enables trade on a local, national and international basis with customized sites in markets around the world. (Source: Company Press Release) -- OSK manufactures a 2-for-1 stock split During today's trading session and with their earnings report, Oshkosh Truck Corp's (NYSE:OSK) Board of Directors announced a 2- for-1 stock split of the company's common shares. The company's stock split will be payable on August 13th, 2003, to shareholders on record as of August 6th. The stock split will be in the form of a 100% stock dividend. This is OSK's first stock split since the middle of 1999. About the company: Oshkosh Truck Corporation is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of a broad range of specialty commercial, fire and emergency and military trucks and truck bodies under the Oshkosh., McNeilus., Pierce., Medtec., Geesink and Norba brand names. Oshkosh's products are valued worldwide by fire and emergency units, defense forces, municipal and airport support services, and concrete placement and refuse businesses where high quality, superior performance, rugged reliability and long-term value are paramount. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BLL Ball Corp 49.81 +1.21 BVN Compania De Minas Buena 33.40 +2.11 CFR Cullen Frost Bankers 35.84 +1.01 VCI Valassis Communications 27.78 +0.74 SAH Sonic Automotive 25.31 +1.65 DFG Delphi Financial 49.95 +2.50 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- SRA Serono Sa (ADS) 16.40 +1.30 CYTC CYTYC Corp 12.62 +1.42 MENT Mentor Graphics 16.19 +1.08 QLTI QLT Inc 16.77 +1.38 TTN Titan Corp 14.40 +3.14 AZR Aztar Corp 17.60 +1.62 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- AIG American Intl Group 62.20 +1.95 DOW Dow Chemical 33.75 +1.80 SI Siemens Aktien 55.70 +1.12 AMZN Amazon.com Inc 41.31 +1.20 CA Computer Associates 25.22 +2.98 ERTS Electronic Arts Inc 81.68 +4.02 AL Alcan Inc 34.00 +1.06 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- EDS Electronic Data Systems 20.80 -2.15 BDX Becton Dickinson & Co 36.90 -1.72 SDS Sungard Data Systems 25.14 -2.44 ABC AmerisourceBergen 64.40 -2.58 ESRX Express Scripts 64.42 -7.48 IDPH IDEC Pharmaceuticals 34.11 -1.94 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- PCAR Paccar Inc 71.26 -2.35 MEDI MedImmune 39.03 -1.07 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.
Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.
To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "firstname.lastname@example.org"
Option Investor Inc