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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 07/24/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 07-24-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Surprised?
Watch List:       AIG, POOL, IGT, WHR, MERQ and more!
Market Sentiment: Setting your sights

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      07-24-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9112.51 - 81.70  9281.42  9106.42 1.87 bln   1549/1670
NASDAQ   1701.42 - 17.80  1740.80  1700.29 1.87 bln   1512/1697
S&P 100   493.65 -  4.14   503.12   493.31   Totals   3061/3367
S&P 500   981.60 -  7.01   998.89   981.07
W5000    9457.57 - 57.90  9612.58  9453.27
RUS 2000  465.26 -  0.88   472.51   465.25
DJ TRANS 2592.95 + 20.80  2612.83  2571.09
VIX        20.46 +  0.02    20.66    19.63
VXN        31.45 +  0.67    31.68    30.10
Total Volume 3,989M
Total UpVol  1,566M
Total DnVol  2,383M
52wk Highs  517
52wk Lows    26
TRIN       1.30
PUT/CALL   0.75
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Surprised?

I was. Not that we had a big drop late in the afternoon but
that we had the big bounce in the morning. Most bulls I know
were scratching their heads at the close today the same way I
was scratching my head on Tuesday afternoon. I was in denial
all morning today and when the drop did begin it came so fast
I immediately became suspicious despite feeling relief. Relief
that I was not losing my mind over my July analysis. We are a
long way from proving that last statement but significantly
closer tonight than we were this morning.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


S&P Chart


The day got off to a flying start with the first Jobless Claims
number under 400,000 in 23 weeks. The 386,000 headline number
triggered massive short covering as surprised bulls started
buying and surprised bears began running for cover. The general
consensus was that a real economic recovery had begun. Hold that
thought for a minute. If the Jobless Claims were really under
400K would that mean a recovery had begun? No, just that the
statistical anomaly of 22 weeks over 400K had finally run its
course. It would take a string of weeks under 400K with
decreasing weekly numbers to even begin to indicate a jobs
recovery had begun. Now the bad news. This was "seasonally
adjusted data." The raw number was still over 400K, way over at
423,972. The numbers are adjusted for a normal influx of workers
furloughed from automakers in the last two weeks of July while
the retooling process takes place. This is historically when this
takes place. However, things are a little more fluid this year
and the adjustment could be over done. With automakers cutting
production earlier and adjusting assembly lines to compensate
for the weaker demand we may not have the same worker fluctuation
that we have always had in late July. All this boils down to you
cannot trust the numbers and they really do not mean anything.
It was one week and not a trend.

Another jobs report, the Monthly Mass Layoff report, showed that
1,691 new layoffs were announced in June for 157,595 workers.
This was only slightly below the 173,784 for May and 161,095
for April. Definitely no change in trend here. The manufacturing
sector continued to lose the most workers. Layoffs in California,
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, Texas, and Ohio accounted for
58% of all layoff events and 55% of initial claims for unemployment
insurance in June. Granted this is a lagging report as it is
layoffs announced in June but the actual layoffs occur over the
next 90 days from the announcement. That puts us right in the
middle of the layoff period.

Despite these reports the market charged off to within 38 points
of the high for the last 12-months at 9319. Did the economy suddenly
improve overnight? Was there a flood of positive earnings guidance
from major companies? Did Saddam Hussein surrender? No to all of
those questions. In fact there were several high profile comments
to suggest otherwise.

International Paper beat the street by two cents but warned that
they were seeing no improvement in the economy. They said they
were anticipating a very tough environment with demand remaining
flat. Sales were less than expected and prices are declining. FBN,
Furniture Brands International, the largest residential furniture
maker in the U.S. said it sees no signs of an economic rebound and
warned for the rest of the year. They said margins were compressing
and they were seeing increased promotional pressure. Whirlpool
dropped -3.14 after beating the street mostly on gains in their
global businesses not the U.S. business. Investors were concerned
that the shrinking margins and lack of U.S. gains were a sign for
the future.

After the close today VRSN posted earnings inline with estimates
but said the prolong slump in technology spending was continuing.
The CEO said the information technology and telecom recovery has
not yet materialized. KLAC said they were not seeing a broad
based increase in business activity but some of their customers
were reporting an upturn in their business that could produce an
upturn in sales in the future. Plenty of qualifiers in that
sentence. Borland Software guided flat to down based on seeing no
improvement in the economy. FLEX announced results of +0.4% that
missed street estimates and warned that revenues would be lower
due to weak demand. The FLEX CEO said it was difficult to know
if an upturn was under way. Let's see falling sales and lowered
guidance might be a clue. CLS also reported a loss of -18 cents
when analysts were only expecting -4 cents. The guided lower for
the next quarter and said they were going to layoff another 2000
to 3000 workers. CLS and FLEX are two of the biggest electronics
manufacturers and if a recovery was underway they would be the
first to see it.

JDSU, the largest supplier of fiber optic components said sales
going forward would be weaker. The JDSU CEO said the market remains
tough and we really do not have any visibility from our customers.
NT reported a loss on $2.3 billion in sales and said the business
conditions remain difficult and their customers were continuing
to spend cautiously. The said they remain cautious about the next
six months. TQNT warned that 3Q and 4Q revenue and earnings would
be below prior estimates. Avaya posted a small profit on sinking
sales but did say they were seeing some revenue stabilization and
some positive signs that IT is strengthening. Also, very qualified.
Other companies that raised guidance included MSCC, PCLN and BNBN.

EBAY posted its best earnings ever at 37 cents, raised guidance
and announced a 2:1 split. EBAY dropped -$5.00 in after hours.
Why? EBAY, like the market was priced to perfection and investors
expected EBAY to beat estimates by a wider margin. The company
said revenue could reach $2.75 billion, a jump of +$250 million.
EBAY is one of the highest priced Internet stocks with a PE over
120. Another problem was a reduction in guidance due to purchase
of the Chinese auction site EachNet. That will subtract -2 cents
in the 3Q and -1 cent in the 4Q. EBAY has a market cap of $37
billion, about one seventh of Wal-Mart's with revenue that is only
1% of Wal-Mart's.

Gateway ended the earnings for the day with another loss of -22
cents on falling revenue. GTW back earlier guidance of -19 cents
for the next quarter although those numbers tend to fade around
mid quarter. They have lost money 10 of the last 11 quarters.
GTW actually said that despite a decline in their PC sales
they were seeing signs of life in the market. Considering they
are nearly giving away computers to maintain any market share in
the battle between Dell and HPQ they are probably finding a few
takers on their promotional products.

After the smoke cleared today and the charts quit moving it was
pretty clear that a couple of buy programs, likely asset allocation
from bonds, and some serious short covering pushed the Dow back
over 9250 but the plan ran out of steam trying to hold it there.
When the S&P failed to hold the 994 level (992 for futures) the
bottom fell out in a hurry. Considering it took until 2:15 for
that failure to occur it was a pretty spectacular effort. After
the morning bounce the war was waged in a very narrow range and
the vultures lined up on the sidelines waiting to see up was
going to get trampled. The bulls lost. There were multiple
rumors helping to torch the rally. One had the terror alert
level being raised due to a retaliation plot after the death of
Udai and Qusai. Another had a single engine plane zooming in on
a presidential motorcade. Still another had the big three
brokerages Salomon, Goldman and JP Morgan dumping huge S&P sell
programs on the futures market. The last one may have some shred
of truth.

The fact that the rumors were flying emphasized that some bears
were out on a limb. When they are about to go down for a big loss
some will resort to anything to try and stimulate the market in
their direction. If that was the intent they did a good job as
the Nasdaq fell all the way back to 1700 once again and the Dow
is poised to break 9100 at the open if the negative futures
tonight hold until tomorrow. Helping mix things up will be
Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 and Home Sales at 10:am. The real
economic problems don't begin until next week when the calendar
begins looking like a mine field in Korea. ISM, Confidence, Jobs,
Sentiment, GDP, PMI, ECI, Beige Book, Income, Spending. Put on
your flack jacket beginning on Monday. This could lead to some
more weakness tomorrow. The massive drop at the close that turned
a +100 point gain into nearly a -100 point loss has probably
given some bulls indigestion. 60% of the S&P have now reported
earnings and 70% of the Dow. With the balance of the earnings
spread out over the next several weeks there is nothing anyone
will learn that they have not already heard. The recovery is
limping along at best and the markets have failed at higher
levels four times since mid June. If they are going higher they
have a tough road ahead and a lot of traders to convince that
the July decline is not going to happen this year.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------


American International Group - AIG - close: 62.20 change: +1.95

WHAT TO WATCH: Beating earnings by a couple cents this morning
was enough to break AIG above the $61 resistance level that has
kept the bulls in check since January and it made that move on
very strong volume.  A pullback to test that breakout level could
setup a nice bullish play with an initial target of $66.




---

SCP Pool Corporation - POOL - close: 37.95 change: +2.00

WHAT TO WATCH: Record-setting earnings vaulted shares of POOL
higher on Thursday by more than 5.5%, giving another leg to the
breakout move already in progress.  This marks a new all-time
high for the stock an judging by the strong volume, there's no
end in sight.  Look for some consolidation of today's breakout
move and then look to enter new bullish positions on a rebound
from above $36, which should now be strong support.




---

International Game Technology - IGT - close: 26.85 change: +0.62

WHAT TO WATCH: Despite a sharp pullback in the broad market this
afternoon, IGT held tough near the high of the day and looks like
it is ready to breakout again, continuing the strong bullish
action that took a brief pause following the stock's recent 4-
for-1 split.  Look for entry on a breakout to new highs above
$27.15.




---

Whirlpool Corp. - WHR - close: 62.81 change: -3.14

WHAT TO WATCH: Smashed lower by nearly 5% on Friday, WHR showed
the visible signs of investor displeasure following its earnings
report this morning.  Following a failed bounce from just below
$63, the stock rolled over at the end of the day and looks poised
to deliver a major breakdown.  Strong support has been evident
for more than a month just above $62, and a break of that level
could have some serious downside on the menu.  Look for initial
support near the 50-dma, and then target a move back down to $57-
58.




---

Mercury Interactive - MERQ - close: 41.39 change: +0.52

WHAT TO WATCH: While at first glance the chart doesn't look
pretty, MERQ has been consistently finding support near its 50-
dma and did so again earlier this week.  With solid earnings
already under its belt, the stock looks poised to take another
run at its recent highs near $45.50.  Use a trigger of $42, just
above today's intraday high.




---


===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

MENT $16.19 - Popping sharply higher this morning on the heels of
its strong earnings and increased guidance for Q3, shares of MENT
are right on the cusp of a strong breakout.  The stock has been
working higher in an ascending channel since early March and
today's rebound from the bottom of that channel certainly looks
encouraging.  Wait for the breakout over $16.60 and target a
quick move to the $18.00-18.50 resistance area.

BDX $36.90 - In an all too rare example of "sell the news" shares
of BDX were punished today for 'only' beating estimates by 3
cents and suffered a nearly 4.5% slide on heavy volume.  The
closing action brought the stock right to the edge of a major
breakdown and based on the heavy volume, that breakdown could
occur as early as tomorrow.  Trigger on a drop under $36.40 and
target a move to the 200-dma.

UHS $46.82 - Following yesterday's breakout, UHS pulled back on
Thursday, testing old resistance at $46.50 as new support.  A
rebound from above $46 may serve as a launching pad for this
strong Health Care stock to make a run at the $49-50 resistance
zone.



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Setting your sights
Jonathan Levinson

The VIX broke below 20 today and stayed there for several hours
today, as the price of gold broke 360.  In the meantime, the put
to call ratio was looking moderate, the oscillators were edging
toward possibly higher levels, and the US Dollar Index was
rallying off its lows.  There was a bullish surprise in the jobs
data as well, with initial claims falling below 400,000 for the
first time in several months.  This last is news to cheer.

The markets put in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows this
week, with a "senseless" rally on the news of Hussein's sons
being killed.  Ben Bernanke held out the promise of a fresh
assault on the value of the dollar, which would be as bullish for
equities as it was the last time he did it during the fall of
2002.

It's difficult to know which of our many indicators to follow in
divining market direction.  Other than by trading mechanically,
which many do, one must rely on a healthy dose of intuition in
the attempt to "hear" the combined message of the indicators.  To
practice this art requires not tighter focus, but distance from
the screen.  Today's selling was "impulsive", insofar as it
exceeded the speed and extent of the buying surges during recent
sessions.  Once again, on a longer term basis, it feels as if the
top of the rally is in.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9353
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9112

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9132
 50-dma: 9002
200-dma: 8482

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1015
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  981

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  990
 50-dma:  977
200-dma:  905

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1253

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1269
 50-dma: 1216
200-dma: 1076


-----------------------------------------------------------------

There was much commotion made today over the VIX finally piercing
its historical sell signal of 20 today.  Typically, when the VIX
hits 20 it's a sign that the markets have topped and further weakness
is in store.  The VIX has been vacillating above 20 for so long that
many felt we may never actually see the 20 level hit.  Now just
because the VIX hit 20 today doesn't mean the markets are going to
drop tomorrow.  Using the volatility index is not an exact science.
We could easily see it trade down to 19 or lower, which usually
means investor bullishness is reaching extremes.  However, we
can't ignore this signal and bullish traders are advised to monitor
their stop losses carefully.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.44 +0.00
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 31.45 +0.67


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.75        653,637       488,014
Equity Only    0.64        515,611       332,345
OEX            0.59         33,358        19,567
QQQ            2.03         30,648        62,359


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          69.5    - 2     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    76.0    - 2     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   86.6    + 3     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       76.2    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       84.0    + 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.93
10-Day Arms Index  0.96
21-Day Arms Index  1.11
55-Day Arms Index  1.13


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1384      1443
Decliners    1463      1594

New Highs     105       185
New Lows       21        11

Up Volume    772M      748M
Down Vol.   1066M     1095M

Total Vol.  1846M     1858M

M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/15/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Stuck in limbo.  The large S&P contracts saw little movement by
both the small traders and the large commercial traders.
Investors could be waiting to get some sort of reading on trader
sentiment after the first week of earnings has been completed.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
06/24/03      405,382   447,526   (42,144)   (4.9%)
07/01/03      415,976   453,005   (37,029)   (4.3%)
07/08/03      415,053   453,720   (38,667)   (4.5%)
07/15/03      414,020   453,033   (39,013)   (4.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/24/03      159,405    85,182    74,223    30.3%
07/01/03      150,232    75,937    74,295    32.8%
07/08/03      152,239    74,749    77,490    34.2%
07/15/03      148,716    70,279    78,437    35.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The S&P e-mini contracts saw more shuffling than the larger
contracts (above) but overall there is little to discern.  Except
for the slight less bearish bias in the Commercials who bumped up
their long positions while scaling back a few of their shorts,
which effectively reduced their net short to a meager 4500
contracts.  Meanwhile the small traders lightened up on both long
and short contracts but remain rather bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
06/24/03      150,208   201,724    (51,516)  (14.6%)
07/01/03      175,893   216,993    (41,100)  (10.5%)
07/08/03      192,815   224,124    (31,309)  ( 7.5%)
07/15/03      214,274   218,765    ( 4,491)  ( 1.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  ( 4,491)  - 07/15/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/24/03       84,081    44,347    39,734    30.9%
07/01/03       57,639    67,449    (9,810)   (7.8%)
07/08/03       56,394    72,090   (15,696)  (12.2%)
07/15/03       45,372    54,654    (9,282)   (9.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,696)  - 07/08/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Much like the larger S&P futures there was little change in the
NASDAQ 100 futures.  Yet we must note one exception.  The
shuffling in the commercial long/short positions produced the most
bearish reading in months.  Close a few long contracts here, add a
few short contracts here and we have a new relative high in net
short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/24/03       28,780     47,425   (18,645) (24.4%)
07/01/03       28,662     48,265   (19,603) (25.5%)
07/08/03       30,489     48,311   (17,822) (22.6%)
07/15/03       28,467     49,154   (20,687) (26.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,687)  - 07/15/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
06/24/03       24,519     7,064    17,455    55.3%
07/01/03       26,777     8,498    18,279    51.8%
07/08/03       26,136     9,035    17,101    48.6%
07/15/03       26,489     8,004    18,485    53.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Somewhat interesting behavior by the commercials last week.  They
scaled down their short positions, which significantly bumped up
their net long holdings over all.  This is effectively telling us
that institutions still think the Industrials well be stronger in
the coming
weeks.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/24/03       19,373    11,565    7,808      25.2%
07/01/03       20,504    11,871    8,633      26.7%
07/08/03       20,752    11,860    8,892      27.3%
07/15/03       21,607     7,855   13,752      46.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
06/24/03        5,950     7,442   (1,492)   (11.1%)
07/01/03        5,799     6,822   (1,023)   ( 8.1%)
07/08/03        5,005     8,093   (3,088)   (23.6%)
07/15/03        5,475     9,717   (4,242)   (27.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 07-24-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Play of the Day:     Golden!

Closed Play :        BMS

Split Announcements: EBAY, OSK

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Play-of-the-Day  (bullish)
===============

Newmont Mining - NEM - close: 35.40 change: +0.12 stop: 32.90

Company Description:
Newmont Mining Corporation is a holding company and is principally
engaged in gold mining.  As of the end of 2002, the company had
gold reserves of 86.9 million equity ounces and an aggregate land
position of approximately 63,000 square miles.  NEM has operations
in North America, South America, Australia, New Zealand,
Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Turkey.  In 2002, the company obtained
more than 69% of its equity gold production from politically and
economically stable countries, namely the United States, Canada
and Australia.

Why we like it:
It doesn't seem to matter whether the concern is inflation or
deflation, it is nearly impossible to argue with the fact that
gold is well established in its bullish long-term trend and gold
stocks have been soaring again over the past week.  The largest
and strongest of gold stocks, NEM confirmed that bullishness on
Wednesday, by breaking out above the $35 level for the first time
since late 1997.  The actual level of the breakout appears to be
$34, as that resistance level has been holding the stock back
since the middle of June.  After breaking out to new 52-week highs
in early June, the stock has been consolidating that breakout
between $31-34 and confirmed its bullish state with today's 5.6%
gain.  Judging by the volume that accompanied today's move (80%
above the ADV), this is a strong breakout and we're looking for
the run to continue, possibly right into the company's earnings
report on August 5th.

The most recent dip to the 50-dma near $31 was met with solid
buying, providing yet another measure of the stock's strength.
With gold prices significantly higher than a year ago and
production costs remaining fixed, investors appear to be looking
for a positive report from the company when it releases earnings.
And with gold prices on the rise again, odds are good for positive
future guidance.  Judging by the strength of today's bullish move,
investors are getting aboard for a good old fashioned momentum run
into the event.  While there is some mild resistance near $36, if
the increasing volume is any indication, NEM may just blast right
on through, bringing our $39 target into view as a tangible pre-
earnings goal.  While momentum traders can certainly consider
entries on a push through Wednesday's $35.30 intraday high, we'd
prefer to see a pullback and rebound from the $33.50-34.00 area,
confirming old resistance as new support, as well as filling in
today's gap.  Place stops initially at $32.90, which is just below
Monday's intraday low of $32.93.

Why This is our Play of the Day
Normally, we wouldn't get excited about a 12-cent gain, but in
light of the strong volume and weakness throughout much of the
market, we're pretty happy with NEM's performance on its first day
out of the gate.  Nearly matching yesterday's very strong 7.6
million share volume, the stock topped 7 million on Thursday,
trading just shy of $36 before getting hit by selling as the rest
of the market melted down in the afternoon.  But NEM caught a
solid bounce from the $35 level to close in the black.  Gold
futures surged another $3 to $362 on Thursday and as long as
economic uncertainty has the yellow metal in favor, look for NEM
to continue its winning ways.  We'd still prefer a pullback near
$34 to provide for the best entries on the subsequent rebound,
although we may have to settle for a rebound from the $34.75-35.00
area.  Momentum entries may work above $36, but we're less in
favor of that approach due to the proximity of the upper Bollinger
band.

Annotated Chart of NEM:


Picked on July 20th at   $35.28
Change since picked       +0.12
Earnings Date            8/05/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  4.22 mln



=================================================================
Active Trader / Non-Tech Stocks
=================================================================

===========
CLOSED PLAY
===========

  --------------
  Closed Bearish
  --------------


Bemis Company - BMS - close: 43.81 change: +0.36 stop: 43.90

After accidentally holding the play over the company's earnings
release, it looked like we had caught a lucky break, with shares
of BMS still confined to a narrow and weak trading range.  But in
a sort of delayed reaction, the stock surged sharply higher at
the open on Thursday, triggering our tightened stop enroute to an
intraday high of $44.55.  Despite the late-day pullback from that
early ramp, we've got to abide by our stop and close the play
tonight for a small gain.

Picked on July 9th at    $45.18
Change since picked       -1.37
Earnings Date          07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    267 K





=================================================================
Stock Split Announcements
=================================================================

EBAY auctions off a 2-for-1 stock split

After the closing bell, EBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) reported its Q2
earnings announcement.  In that report it was revealed that the
Board of Directors announced a 2-for-1 stock split of the
company's common shares.

The company's stock split will be payable on August 28th, 2003, to
shareholders on record as of August 4th.  The stock split will be
in the form of a 100% stock dividend.

This is EBAY's first stock split since the second quarter of 2000.


About the company:
eBay is the world's online marketplace(TM). Founded in 1995, eBay
created a powerful platform for the sale of goods and services by
a passionate community of individuals and businesses. On any given
day, there are millions of items across thousands of categories
for sale on eBay. eBay enables trade on a local, national and
international basis with customized sites in markets around the
world. (Source: Company Press Release)

--


OSK manufactures a 2-for-1 stock split

During today's trading session and with their earnings report,
Oshkosh Truck Corp's (NYSE:OSK) Board of Directors announced a 2-
for-1 stock split of the company's common shares.

The company's stock split will be payable on August 13th, 2003, to
shareholders on record as of August 6th.  The stock split will be
in the form of a 100% stock dividend.

This is OSK's first stock split since the middle of 1999.

About the company:
Oshkosh Truck Corporation is a leading designer, manufacturer and
marketer of a broad range of specialty commercial, fire and
emergency and military trucks and truck bodies under the Oshkosh.,
McNeilus., Pierce., Medtec., Geesink and Norba brand names.
Oshkosh's products are valued worldwide by fire and emergency
units, defense forces, municipal and airport support services, and
concrete placement and refuse businesses where high quality,
superior performance, rugged reliability and long-term value are
paramount. (Source: Company Press Release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BLL     Ball Corp                  49.81     +1.21
BVN     Compania De Minas Buena    33.40     +2.11
CFR     Cullen Frost Bankers       35.84     +1.01
VCI     Valassis Communications    27.78     +0.74
SAH     Sonic Automotive           25.31     +1.65
DFG     Delphi Financial           49.95     +2.50

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

SRA     Serono Sa (ADS)            16.40     +1.30
CYTC    CYTYC Corp                 12.62     +1.42
MENT    Mentor Graphics            16.19     +1.08
QLTI    QLT Inc                    16.77     +1.38
TTN     Titan Corp                 14.40     +3.14
AZR     Aztar Corp                 17.60     +1.62

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

AIG     American Intl Group        62.20     +1.95
DOW     Dow Chemical               33.75     +1.80
SI      Siemens Aktien             55.70     +1.12
AMZN    Amazon.com Inc             41.31     +1.20
CA      Computer Associates        25.22     +2.98
ERTS    Electronic Arts Inc        81.68     +4.02
AL      Alcan Inc                  34.00     +1.06

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

EDS     Electronic Data Systems    20.80     -2.15
BDX     Becton Dickinson & Co      36.90     -1.72
SDS     Sungard Data Systems       25.14     -2.44
ABC     AmerisourceBergen          64.40     -2.58
ESRX    Express Scripts            64.42     -7.48
IDPH    IDEC Pharmaceuticals       34.11     -1.94

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

PCAR    Paccar Inc                 71.26     -2.35
MEDI    MedImmune                  39.03     -1.07






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