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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 08/03/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-03-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Jobloss Recovery 
Play-of-the-Day:  Not Enough
Market Sentiment: First Friday of the Month

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 8-01         WE 7-25         WE 7-18         WE 7-11 
DOW     9153.97 -130.60 9284.57 + 96.42 9188.15 + 68.56 + 49.38 
Nasdaq  1715.62 - 15.08 1730.70 + 22.20 1708.50 - 25.43 + 70.48 
S&P-100  493.64 -  9.30  502.94 +  1.44  501.50 -   .98 +  6.40 
S&P-500  980.15 - 18.53  998.68 +  5.36  993.32 -  4.82 + 12.44 
W5000   9454.16 -145.20 9599.36 + 52.70 9546.66 - 64.23 +148.38 
RUT      468.08 -  0.80  468.88 +  4.12  464.76 -  9.01 + 17.42 
TRAN    2595.91 - 19.88 2615.79 + 39.50 2576.29 + 30.71 +130.27 
VIX       22.78 +  2.84   19.94 -  1.42   21.36 +   .64 -  0.89 
VXN       32.48 +  2.44   30.04 -  3.37   33.41 +   .61 +  0.33 
TRIN       1.08            0.67            0.60            0.94 
Put/Call   0.91            0.67            0.61            0.98 
Avg Highs   462             365             522             791 
Avg Lows     72              31              29              21       
WE= Week Ending
================================================================= 

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Jobloss Recovery 
by Jim Brown

Traders are beginning to believe that the jobless recovery has 
turned into a jobloss recovery instead. The economic numbers on
Friday did not help improve sentiment despite some positive signs
under the hood. The markets closed the week with a loss despite
a barrage of good numbers over the last several days. 

S&P Chart


Dow chart


Nasdaq Chart


The Consumer Sentiment improved slightly to 90.9 from the 
preliminary 90.3 for July. The expectations index fell from 86.4
to 83.7 but the present conditions index jumped to 102.1. This
surprised some traders as it was different to what the Consumer
Confidence showed earlier in the week. What it did not show was
a marked decrease in sentiment to confirm the confidence numbers.
Instead the gain in the present conditions was the biggest in a 
decade. Analysts think this is related to the higher take home 
pay, tax credit checks and recent market gains. Clearly it was 
not due to higher interest rates and analysts think the next 
report could show a drastic drop.

The Nonfarm Payroll report added to the frustration with a loss
of -44,000 jobs when +18,000 were expected. The June number was
also revised down to -72,000 and more than twice the -30,000 
initially reported. The May number was also revised down and 
this makes the sixth consecutive month of job losses. The 
unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 6.2% from 6.4% simply
due to 500,000 workers dropping out of the job market in disgust
without finding jobs. Sounds like a summer vacation to me. 9.06 
million workers are currently officially unemployed if you don't
count the -556,000 dropouts. Had there been no dropouts the
unemployment rate would have been 6.5%. March was the only other
month this year with a drop in the workforce at -64,000. If those
workers return in September after the summer vacation then the
unemployment rate could be even higher. The average workweek
for manufacturing fell to 40.1 hrs and 33.6 for nonmanufacturing.
Conditions may be slowly improving but so slowly that employers
cannot afford to hire more workers and are continuing to layoff
workers to cut costs. Temporary hiring picked up as employers
replaced full time employees with part time and added part time
to replace workers on vacation. This too shall pass when the 
summer is over. 

I went back to the 8/2/2002 report to see what had changed in 
the last 12 months. In 2002 the report made these points. "The
unemployment rate remained unchanged in July at 5.9%. However, 
part of this is the result of a contracting labor force and 
unemployed workers see few opportunities in the labor market 
and drop out." No change there. "Manufacturing losses continue 
to abate. Only 7,000 jobs were lost in July". Big change here
with -67,000 manufacturing jobs lost in 2003. "The labor market 
added 6,000 in July, but the gains for the previous months were 
revised up to 66,000, nearly double." Big change here as well
with six months of losses in 2003 instead of the four months 
of gains in August 2002. There were 8.1 million unemployed in 
Aug-2002 and 9.06 million in Aug-2003. Investors have to ask 
themselves, Are things really better now than they were in 
Aug-2002? The Dow traded in a 305 point range on the report 
Friday in 2002 with a high of 8508 and a low of 8203, closing 
at 8313. Interest rates on both the 10-year and 30-year were 
lower on the 2002 report date and dropping. 

Contrary to the negative picture above the ISM posted a number
over 50 at 51.8 for the first time five months. This does 
indicate an expansion. It was yet another positive in a week of
bullish economic reports. This was inline with expectations. 
New orders jumped to 56.6 from 52.2 and the third month for
that component over 50. This report indicates that a recovery
is in progress but at a snails pace. 

Personal Income rose by +0.3% in June despite falling hours
and wage pressure from job competition. Personal Spending also
rose +0.3%. Depending on which numbers you look at they were
not buying cars with the increase in wages. Compared to last
July the automakers reported drops in sales. GM -5.7%, Ford
-11.5%, Daimler Chrysler -7.5%. Compared to last month sales
rose to 17.3 million in annually adjusted terms. GM rose
+5.3%, Ford +3.3%, DCX +2.0%, Honda +1.5%, Toyota +1.9%. Sales
are limping in on the backs of incentives but the drop in
mortgage refinancing is going to impact those numbers. 

Construction Spending came in flat for June compared to +0.5%
estimates. Construction has either been flat or down since 
February. The market is still in turmoil with low mortgage
rates a drag on new apartment construction. A high vacancy
rate in commercial office buildings is depressing rents and
convincing investors to wait for a change before building 
new office projects. 

Overall the reports were not bad other than the Jobs report
so what happened to the markets? Friday was an ugly day and
when combined with Thursday it was a two day bear market. 
While there was no really big drop on Friday there was 
almost zero interest in buying. There was a strong rumor
buoyed by some truth that Saddam was cornered in a farm house
in Tikrit. The truth, U.S. forces surrounded and raided two
houses in Tikrit capturing two Saddam associates. The 
initial reports of the attack had Saddam in the house. The
market barely budged with only a +30 point bounce at 1:15. 
Last week this would have been good for a +100 point spike. 
Considering it came on a Friday it is even more amazing 
that nobody rushed to cover with the potential for a weekend
capture. The Dow ended with a close at 9153, only 15 points
above the low for the day but the volume was very low. 

Bonds continue to press the issue and there was some buying 
after the ISM report but it was very light. The rumors 
continued that there is a big bond fund in trouble and that
is keeping pressure on bonds. If somebody is in trouble then
the sharks will eventually sniff them out. There is also a
strong and persistent rumor that overseas investors, pension
funds and other governments are selling bonds by the boatload. 
They are responsible for more than half of the U.S. Treasury
debt and the spiraling deficits are scaring them. Japan holds
more than $400 billion, China $125 billion. They see the 
60% drop in refinancing applications in the last six weeks,
rates making a two year move in six weeks and the prospect
that the government could be forced to sell $1 trillion in
bonds in the next 12 months to support the deficit and the
war. 

High yield bond funds saw outflows of $1.06 billion in
outflows last week and the single week record is $1.4 billion. 
The swap spreads soared +20 basis points in two days which is 
unheard of. The carry trade, where banks and hedge funds borrow
Yen from Japan at 1% or less to leverage into dollar-linked 
bonds, is collapsing. The Yen is gaining on the dollar and 
dollar bonds are falling through the floor. As the trend 
continues the squeeze becomes painful and companies are racing
to liquidate positions before huge losses pile up. Another 
problem is the pension shift. Whenever yields hit 4.5% and
we hit 4.59% Friday, conservative pension funds shift out of
risky stocks and into the safety of bonds. This could have
been the problem on Friday. Stocks were being sold and bonds
being bought by pension funds. Also, AMG data said that equity
funds saw the first week of outflows in a month for the week
ended on Wednesday. 

There are massive forces at work here that we do not see on
the surface. Hedge funds and bond junkies always over leverage
when bonds appear to be headed in one direction. With bonds
hitting a 45 year high there had to be a large number of 
over margined, over leveraged funds. With the bond disaster 
there has got to be casualties and those casualties have not
come to the surface yet. If you doubt the rumors of an 
impending failure look at the chart for FRE, which is only
about $1 from a multiyear low. LEH and BSC, both big bonds
firms are falling off the cliff as investors fear an imminent
disclosure. Even if they are not in trouble financially they
are probably going to take a hit. Don't forget gold. The same 
traders who leveraged bonds to the moon thinking the economy 
was going in the tank were doing the same with gold. It hit 
a two week low on Friday. Sometimes when it rains it pours. 

The GDP showed a +2.4% Q2 rate. Unfortunately 44% of that
jump came in government spending for the war. As Art Cashin
said several times on Friday, unless there is another war
scheduled for the fourth quarter that burst in spending is 
not going to happen again. Another factor depressing the 
markets is the impending Fed meeting on Aug-12th. The fed 
funds futures are showing a zero chance of another rate cut. 
Zero! There is nothing for traders to speculate on or to get 
excited about. The Fed speak has been a constant, "slow 
recovery in progress" and "over accommodative stance" which 
means don't even think about another rate cut. The threats of 
other nontraditional stimulus have been taken off the table 
and the Fed has effectively neutered itself. It will have to 
start talking the talk and walking the walk to get investors 
attention because the walk softly and carry a big stick only
works when your stick is bigger than 100 basis points. With
a stick the size of a toothpick you won't get much respect. 

The interest rate pressure is killing the homebuilders and 
the related industries. The drop in mortgage applications
and rise in rates has finally popped the building bubble. 
The soaring builder stocks, which trade at absurdly low PEs
of 8-12 are getting cheaper by the day. 

Despite all the problems the selling for the week was not
that bad. The S&P is on a streak of five winning months that
it has not had since 1998. The -18 point drop for the week 
was hardly a drop in the bucket. The Dow closed at 9153 and
is still well above support levels it has defended 
successfully since the beginning of June. The Nasdaq closed
over 1700 despite the selling. The sell off only seems worse
due to the 52-week highs hit on Thursday. When compared to 
those numbers and considering the bullish economic data the
outlook becomes more cloudy. The most negative event was the
failure of the 50 DMA on the S&P-500 at 985. This is the 
first close under the 50 since March 14th. If this holds on
Monday it could setup some serious technical selling. 

As I mentioned on Thursday, August has been the worst month
of the year for the markets for the last 15 years. That is
during good times and bad times. The first week of August 
is typically the worst week. Considering we did not get the
typical end of July decline for reasons including Udai, 
Qusai and Saddam, the market could just be tired. Add in
the ticking bond bomb and traders are ready to take some 
profits. The bulls are worried. They got the great economic 
news in every report but the Nonfarm Payrolls but the market
died. Saddam was thought to be trapped in a farmhouse in 
Tikrit and the market ignored it. The market rallied on 
every piece of bad news imaginable for months and failed 
miserably on the first really concrete evidence of a recovery.
Now I am bullish. Confused?

I am always early. I am still expecting a decline below 9000
but I think the time is growing short. July earnings are over
and we are a third of the way through the 3Q. Man, does time
fly. In about two weeks we will start seeing the mid quarter
updates. In four weeks we will start hitting the earnings
warnings. But, the pump is primed. There was a significant
number of companies that said business was improving. They
probably lied hoping the 3Q would rescue them but that is
not the point. The reports are actually showing a jobless
recovery and that was expected. It could be mid 2004 before
the jobs picture really picks up. However the manufacturing
picture is improving. We are showing a serious decline in
inventories across the board. This will have to be replenished
before the 4Q or the holiday season will flop. Intel said it
best this week. CEO Barrett said "IT spending will probably
remain flat for the rest of 2003." But, Intel cannot afford
to wait for business to pick up and they will be buying
35,000 PCs to replace their outdated equipment. They are
expecting others to wait but they cannot afford to wait for
the rush. There are countless others in the same shape with
Y2K computers slowly dying. Unfortunately he also said he 
only expected a growth rate of 15% over the next 5-10 years
IF the economy cooperated. Probably being a little cautious 
there and talking down future analyst estimates. 

On Thursday Merrill Lynch went bullish on chips saying the
demand was rising and orders were starting to stack up. On
Tuesday Bear Stearns raised their projected computer sales
for 2003 from 6% to 9% and said notebooks could grow to +22%.
We will get the Semiconductor billings for June on Monday
and that is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive
month. Right or wrong traders will be buying the dips on 
techs expecting a positive surprise in October. 

Copper and aluminum prices have been rising and that is 
commonly seen as a leading indicator of economic growth. 
Almost every hard product made has those metals inside. Add
the wire and cable for new construction and the metals touch
almost every sector. Cyclical stocks have been rocking. Check
out the charts on MMM, BCC, IP, IR and DOW just to mention a
few. 

Now before everyone gets carried away I may be bullish on
a long term basis but the next few weeks could be rocky. 
We are entering the three most volatile months of the year. 
They are volatile in good times and bad times. There are any
number of reasons for this which I will not go into today. 
Just check some historic charts and take my word for it. 
That means the huge gains made on paper over the last
several months are still at risk. Many funds will be 
adjusting their portfolios over the next three months. 
They will be selling the losers, picking more winners 
and positioning themselves for the fourth quarter run. The
current external market factors like an impending bond 
disaster could accelerate those moves. If you thought there
was another Long Term Capital about to explode over the 
front page and take a thousand points off the stock market
would you be in a hurry to take profits? 

In July of 1998 with the Dow at a new high of 9350, Long 
Term Capital, a hedge fund with assets of $4.8 billion and
liabilities many time in excess of that, imploded. Highly 
over leveraged in bonds and derivates and in hundreds of 
deals with other banks it was facing a $250 million a day 
loss due to rapidly declining bond markets stimulated by 
the Russian default initially and then by the smell of blood
as the rumors began to fly. With dozens of deals over $500 
million to other banks like JP Morgan, Salomon, Citigroup, 
Goldman Sachs, etc, a default by LTCM would cause massive 
liabilities to ripple through the investment community and 
endangered the current financial system. The Fed later
organized a multimillion rescue to protect the system but
the stock market fell to 7400 from the 9350 high when the
problem came public. -2000 points on a bond default from
a $4.8 billion hedge fund. How much would we get today if 
it was FRE, LEH or BSC? For a complete history of LTCM:
http://riskinstitute.ch/146490.htm
In another bond collapse one trader working for Barings, a
200 year old English bank, leveraged into over $60 billion 
of bonds and futures using only $615 million in capital. 
The company failed and the assets were sold for $1. Is it 
possible there is a ticking bond bomb? Absolutely. 

Everybody with big money knows that October is planting time.
August and September are harvest time. You reap the profits 
in Aug/Sep and reinvest them by planting in the October 
furrows. This year I fully expect that time table to be 
accelerated as eager fund managers try to beat the crowd to 
the punch. When? Who knows? We can only speculate that the 
next 90 days will be like a roller coaster in a hurricane. 
There will be peaks and valleys and dangerous cross currents
but when we come out of October we should be in good shape
if the recovery is still on track. Assuming the bond market
gets back on track without a disaster the race to beat the
crowd could begin quickly as long as economics continue to
improve. Just like every roller coaster ride you have ever 
been on, they scare the hell out of you in the middle but 
the end of the ride is always smooth and level. We need to 
step up to the ticket counter and get ready to pay our 
money because the ride is about to start. 

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bearish)
=========================

Greenpoint Fin. - GPT - cls: 49.37 chg: -0.89 stop: 51.01*new*

Company Description: 
GreenPoint Financial Corp., www.greenpoint.com, a $22 billion 
asset bank holding company, is among the most profitable of the 
50 largest banking companies in the country.  GreenPoint's 
businesses, a national mortgage business and a New York retail 
bank, are complementary to each other and therefore reduce the 
cyclical nature of earnings growth inherent in the financial 
services industry.  GreenPoint Mortgage, with originations of 
more than $33 billion in 2002, originates a wide variety of 
exclusively "A" quality loans, including agency qualifying loans 
and Jumbo A loans, and specializes in Alternative A mortgages.  
"Alt A" borrowers meet Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac standards for 
credit score, but want flexibility beyond agency guidelines for 
documentation requirements, property type, debt ratio or loan-to-
value ratio, and are willing to pay a premium for that 
flexibility.  GreenPoint's "Alt A" loan charge-off experience is 
comparable to conventional Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans.  
GreenPoint Bank, a New York State chartered savings bank, is the 
second largest thrift depository in the Greater New York area 
with $12 billion in deposits in 85 branches serving more than 
400,000 households.  (Source: Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
When is it not enough to report earnings up 14 percent from the 
year-ago period, announce a 3-for-2 stock split, and boost a 
quarterly dividend 15.2 percent?  It's not enough when those 
increased earnings resulted from the favorable environment 
created by low interest rates to your company's mortgage banking 
operations.  With bonds diving and yields climbing, those 
favorable interest rates become less favorable.  Thursday, 30-
year fixed mortgage rates hit 6.14 percent.  Refinancing 
applications dropped 50 percent in four weeks.  That previously 
favorable environment that had helped GPT offset weakness in net 
interest income and margin compression was perhaps no longer 
quite so favorable.  

Immediately after reporting, GPT dove, dropping four points in 
two days.  Stabilizing at support just above $50, GPT climbed 
again, but then rounded over into the right shoulder of a classic 
head-and-shoulder formation.  Friday, GPT broke through the 
neckline of that H&S, also dropping below 50 on a closing basis 
for the first time since late May.  GPT wasn't alone among 
financials in experiencing difficulties Friday.  The XRH, the 
Regional Bank Holders Index, dropped 1.57 percent; the IXM, the 
Financial Select Sector Index, dropped 2.03 percent; and the BIX, 
the S&P Banking Index, dropped 1.69 percent.

The H&S target projects down to the level of GPT's 200-dma at 
46.32, and we're setting our target just above that level, at 
46.51.  We note that volume has been picking up on down days.  
Traders can enter at current levels or at a rollover under 50.60. 
On our way down to $46.50, there's support at $49.00 and again at 
$47.00, but we believe any bounce at $49.00 would provide another 
entry opportunity.  

The stock split will take the form of a stock dividend, and it 
and the higher dividend will be payable August 20 to shareholders 
of record as of August 8.  So far, there's no sign of a split run 
a la the late 90's, but we'll be watching closely the end of next 
week to guard against an adverse move against us.  

Annotated Chart for GPT:


Picked on August 3 at $49.37
Change since picked:  + 0.00
Earnings Date:      07/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    581 thousand





================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

First Friday of the Month
Jonathan Levinson
 
We have a shortened trading month for August expiration due to 
the one day week just finished.  What have the past five sessions 
left us with?
 
This week was tumultuous in a number of different markets, but 
the pattern appears to be a clear reversal of the trends at work 
during the spring rally.  I won't harp on what is becoming a 
recurrent concept in my understanding of the markets, but 
liquidity drove us up, and appears to be letting us down.
 
We finished the week with bearish engulfing candles on the Dow 
futures, S&P futures, INDU and SPX.  On the Nasdaq futures and 
the COMPX, we got imperfect bearish haramis, but in any event, 
negative closes.  On the ten year note yield, a bullish three 
white soldiers pattern, as bonds continue to make new yearly 
lows.  Lastly, the US Dollar Index rallied higher, printing a 
bullish engulfing candle, while the August gold contract, 
bludgeoned in Friday's trading, printed a bearish engulfing for 
the week.
 
Just as we saw a tidal wave of liquidity caused by the home 
mortgage boom and the fed's "anti-disinflation" operations during 
the spring rally, floating bonds, stocks and commodities, this 
week brought us exactly the reverse.  We saw mortgage and refi 
activity reverse, a huge "bearish engulfing" decline as reported 
in Wednesday's market wrap, and the Fed was busy draining in its 
open market operations as well.  If it continues, as the weekly 
candles suggest, we should see rates continue higher, equities 
continue lower, along with gold and a rising US dollar.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9361
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9153

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9190
 50-dma: 9078
200-dma: 8527

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1015
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  980

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  987
 50-dma:  984
200-dma:  910

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1264

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1265
 50-dma: 1233
200-dma: 1088


-----------------------------------------------------------------


Both the VIX and VXN are bouncing from recent lows but it will take 
the creation of a new relative high to convince us that a change in
sentiment is at hand.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 22.78 +1.54
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 32.48 +1.26


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.91        480,735       436,251
Equity Only    0.74        334,416       246,327
OEX            0.71         35,395        25,000
QQQ            1.54         21,840        33,550


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          69.2    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    75.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    - 7     Bull Correction
S&P 500       76.2    - 1     Bull Correction
S&P 100       82.0    - 2     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.05
10-Day Arms Index  1.03
55-Day Arms Index  1.12


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     785      1001
Decliners    2039      2028

New Highs      93       159
New Lows       63         9

Up Volume    411M      591M
Down Vol.   1146M      872M

Total Vol.  1590M     1475M

M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/29/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Still looking at a lack of major change in the large S&P futures
contracts.  Commercial traders and small traders have yet to make
any big moves lately.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/08/03      415,053   453,720   (38,667)   (4.5%)
07/15/03      414,020   453,033   (39,013)   (4.5%)
07/22/03      411,206   442,131   (30,925)   (3.6%)
07/29/03      405,429   445,114   (39,685)   (4.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03
 
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03      152,239    74,749    77,490    34.2%
07/15/03      148,716    70,279    78,437    35.8%
07/22/03      155,891    76,466    79,425    34.2%
07/29/03      155,216    73,030    82,186    36.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Quite the opposite of the large S&P futures above, we're seeing
some big differences in the e-mini positions.  Commercial traders
have turned very bullish while the small traders is increasing
their net bearish positions.  These are new milestones for both.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
07/08/03      192,815   224,124    (31,309)  ( 7.5%)
07/15/03      214,274   218,765    ( 4,491)  ( 1.0%)
07/22/03      249,392   249,386          6     0.0%
07/29/03      272,659   216,166     56,493    11.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   56,493   - 07/29/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03       56,394    72,090   (15,696)  (12.2%)
07/15/03       45,372    54,654    (9,282)   (9.3%)
07/22/03       45,945    76,071   (30,126)  (24.7%)
07/29/03       44,437    93,144   (48,707)  (35.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (48,707)  - 07/29/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is very little change in positions for either the 
small trader or the commercials.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
07/08/03       30,489     48,311   (17,822) (22.6%)
07/15/03       28,467     49,154   (20,687) (26.7%)
07/22/03       32,502     48,139   (15,637) (19.4%)
07/29/03       31,456     50,294   (18,838) (23.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,687)  - 07/15/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03       26,136     9,035    17,101    48.6%
07/15/03       26,489     8,004    18,485    53.6%
07/22/03       27,321     8,844    18,477    51.1%
07/29/03       25,691     7,810    17,881    53.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

It's the same story here.  Maybe it's the summer doldrums
that's leaving the size of futures positions in a very sideways
trend.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03       20,752    11,860    8,892      27.3%
07/15/03       21,607     7,855   13,752      46.7%
07/22/03       22,198     8,176   14,022      46.2%
07/29/03       23,696     9,572   14,124      42.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/08/03        5,005     8,093   (3,088)   (23.6%)
07/15/03        5,475     9,717   (4,242)   (27.9%)
07/22/03        6,110    10,898   (4,788)   (28.2%)
07/29/03        5,744    11,601   (5,857)   (33.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-03-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bullish Plays:     ALTR
  Bullish Play Updates:  MU, PLNR

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bearish Plays:     GPT, JPM
  Bullish Play Updates:  CTAS, NEM, PETM
  Bearish Play Updates:  DAL, HOV
  Closed Bullish Plays:  HSIC

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  BEAS


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Altera Corp. - ALTR - cls: 19.75 chg: +0.57 stop: 18.69

Company Description:
Celebrating its 20th anniversary this year, Altera Corporation is 
the world's pioneer in system-on-a-programmable-chip (SOPC) 
solutions.  Combining programmable logic technology with software 
tools, intellectual property, and technical services, Altera 
provides high-value programmable solutions to approximately 
14,000 customers worldwide.  (Source:  Company News Release.)

Why We Like It:
On a day when the COMPX lost more than 1 percent the 
semiconductors crept up with the SOX, the Philadelphia 
Semiconductor Index, gaining 1.05 percent.  ALTR outperformed its 
parent index, however, gaining 2.97 percent.  

That's a long way to come since being downgraded July 14 by Smith 
Barney to inline from outperform, with the firm citing valuation 
concerns.  Smith Barney's analyst set a $15 price target for 
ALTR.  On July 22, ALTR reported in-line income of 9 cents per 
share, up from the previous year's 6 cents per share.  Revenue 
beat expectations and the company's projections as sales rose 21 
percent above those of the first quarter and jumped 74 percent 
above those of the year-ago quarter.  ALTR declined that day, but 
maintained support near $18.00, and continued building a base 
there for a few more days before moving up again.  

As ALTR approaches the psychologically important $20.00 level, 
MACD has turned up and RSI turned up again in the middle of a 
down phase.  Although the importance of the $20.00 level appears 
evident on the daily chart, the weekly chart also depicts a 
bullish cup-and-handle formation with a lip at $20.00.  ALTR's 
P&F chart shows a buy signal, with prices above the bullish 
support line and currently in an "X" column.  The P&F chart gives 
a P&F target of $41.00, but there's P&F resistance at $25.00 and 
we'll be targeting numbers just shy of that level.

We're going to use a TRIGGER at $20.01 to leg us into the play.  
Our initial stop loss will be $18.69.

Annotated Chart for ALTR:


Picked on August 3 at $19.75
Change since picked:   +0.00
Earnings Date:      07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    8.2 million




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Micron Technology - MU - cls: 15.11 chng: +0.47 stop: 14.20*new*

Just as we were becoming concerned that MU was going to be unable 
to hold above the $14 support level, the Semiconductor index 
(SOX.X) managed to pull off another rebound from the bottom of 
its multi-month ascending channel, rising back over $390 by the 
end of Friday's session.  That rebound is actually quite 
impressive given the fact that the NASDAQ lost 1% on the day and 
the SOX ended up being the only Technology sector to end the day 
in the green.  MU put on a stellar performance on Friday, gaining 
better than 3%, and ending back over $15 for the first time since 
the breakout nearly 2 weeks ago.  This looks very encouraging and 
traders that took advantage of the recent dip to just above $14 
should be in good shape.  The only obstacle to a retest of the 
7/23 high of $15 is the upper Bollinger band at $15.28.  Given 
the downward slope of the band right now, it will likely take a 
couple days before MU will be able to push up to challenge those 
relative highs.  Based on the way MU stayed above the 20-dma 
($14.31) through last week's bout of profit taking, we're inching 
our stop up to $14.20.

Picked on July 23rd at   $15.38
Change since picked       -0.27
Earnings Date            9/17/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  11.5 mln




---

Planar Systems - PLNR - cls: 23.62 chg: -0.50 stop: 22.98*new*

A comparison of the COMPX and PLNR intraday charts shows what 
happened to PLNR on Friday.  The same shape appears on both 
charts although PLNR held on longer than the COMPX.  While the 
COMPX hit a relative low just after 10:30, PLNR clung to support 
another couple of hours.  Early in the day, prices pierced 
resistance.  We believe that, given half a chance, PLNR would 
have broken through that resistance.  

That's small comfort to traders watching prices slip.  RSI now 
rolls down and may be headed for another test of its ascending 
trendline.  That trendline has been arresting RSI dips since 
April, with each dip to the trendline signaling an imminent 
upturn in RSI and price, too.  We hope that's what happens this 
time.  Just in case it doesn't, we're snuggling up our stop to 
22.98.  PLNR has not traded below that level for two weeks.  The 
21-dma rises sharply beneath current prices, and soon should lend 
its support to the 23 level, too.  

While RSI declines, we would not suggest new entries on 
pullbacks.  Traders who like to enter on momentum can target a 
move over Friday's high, although those traders should remember 
that we expect to see some hesitation as PLNR approaches 26.50.

Annotated Chart for PLNR:


Picked on July 20 at $23.89
Change since picked:  -0.27
Earnings Date:     07/16/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   174 thousand






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Greenpoint Fin. - GPT - cls: 49.37 chg: -0.89 stop: 51.01*new*

Company Description: 
GreenPoint Financial Corp., www.greenpoint.com, a $22 billion 
asset bank holding company, is among the most profitable of the 
50 largest banking companies in the country.  GreenPoint's 
businesses, a national mortgage business and a New York retail 
bank, are complementary to each other and therefore reduce the 
cyclical nature of earnings growth inherent in the financial 
services industry.  GreenPoint Mortgage, with originations of 
more than $33 billion in 2002, originates a wide variety of 
exclusively "A" quality loans, including agency qualifying loans 
and Jumbo A loans, and specializes in Alternative A mortgages.  
"Alt A" borrowers meet Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac standards for 
credit score, but want flexibility beyond agency guidelines for 
documentation requirements, property type, debt ratio or loan-to-
value ratio, and are willing to pay a premium for that 
flexibility.  GreenPoint's "Alt A" loan charge-off experience is 
comparable to conventional Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans.  
GreenPoint Bank, a New York State chartered savings bank, is the 
second largest thrift depository in the Greater New York area 
with $12 billion in deposits in 85 branches serving more than 
400,000 households.  (Source: Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
When is it not enough to report earnings up 14 percent from the 
year-ago period, announce a 3-for-2 stock split, and boost a 
quarterly dividend 15.2 percent?  It's not enough when those 
increased earnings resulted from the favorable environment 
created by low interest rates to your company's mortgage banking 
operations.  With bonds diving and yields climbing, those 
favorable interest rates become less favorable.  Thursday, 30-
year fixed mortgage rates hit 6.14 percent.  Refinancing 
applications dropped 50 percent in four weeks.  That previously 
favorable environment that had helped GPT offset weakness in net 
interest income and margin compression was perhaps no longer 
quite so favorable.  

Immediately after reporting, GPT dove, dropping four points in 
two days.  Stabilizing at support just above $50, GPT climbed 
again, but then rounded over into the right shoulder of a classic 
head-and-shoulder formation.  Friday, GPT broke through the 
neckline of that H&S, also dropping below 50 on a closing basis 
for the first time since late May.  GPT wasn't alone among 
financials in experiencing difficulties Friday.  The XRH, the 
Regional Bank Holders Index, dropped 1.57 percent; the IXM, the 
Financial Select Sector Index, dropped 2.03 percent; and the BIX, 
the S&P Banking Index, dropped 1.69 percent.

The H&S target projects down to the level of GPT's 200-dma at 
46.32, and we're setting our target just above that level, at 
46.51.  We note that volume has been picking up on down days.  
Traders can enter at current levels or at a rollover under 50.60. 
On our way down to $46.50, there's support at $49.00 and again at 
$47.00, but we believe any bounce at $49.00 would provide another 
entry opportunity.  

The stock split will take the form of a stock dividend, and it 
and the higher dividend will be payable August 20 to shareholders 
of record as of August 8.  So far, there's no sign of a split run 
a la the late 90's, but we'll be watching closely the end of next 
week to guard against an adverse move against us.  

Annotated Chart for GPT:


Picked on August 3 at $49.37
Change since picked:  + 0.00
Earnings Date:      07/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    581 thousand




---


J.P. Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 33.36 change: -1.69 stop: 35.85

Company Description:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a global financial services firm with 
operations in over 60 countries. The Company's principal bank 
subsidiaries are The Chase Manhattan Bank, Morgan Guaranty Trust 
Company and Chase Manhattan Bank USA, National Association.  Its 
principal non-bank subsidiaries are its investment bank 
subsidiaries, Chase Securities Inc. (CSI) and J.P. Morgan 
Securities Inc. (JPMSI). The bank and non-bank subsidiaries of 
JPMorgan Chase operate nationally, as well as through overseas 
branches and subsidiaries, representative offices and affiliated 
banks.

Why we like it:
If you've been following the Brokerage stocks like we have 
lately, you noticed the big violation on Friday.  The 
Broker/Dealer index (XBD.X) finally broke below the $550 support 
level that had been propping it up since early July.  After the 
initial violation early in the day, the XBD continued downwards, 
adding to the validity of the breakdown.  JPM caught our 
attention due to the way it has been trading sideways in the $33-
36 area (except for the brief spike surrounding earnings, which 
was clearly a bull trap) since the breakout in early June.  
Friday's 4.8% selloff on volume that more than doubled the ADV 
certainly looks bearish, and the violation of the 50-dma ($33.89) 
increases the likelihood that this is the beginning of an 
extended move.  Believe it or not though, the stock hasn't yet 
truly broken down.  Critical support on the candle chart is at 
$33, and we're going to use a trigger at that level.  Adding to 
the significance of that level is the PnF chart, which will issue 
a new Sell signal on a trade at $33 and bring with it a tentative 
vertical count of $25.


Looking at the standard candle chart though, we can see that 
there is likely to be some solid support near $30-31, reinforced 
by the 200-dma (currently $29.53).  Once below that support 
though, JPM ought to seek out strong support in the $27-28 area, 
which had been strong resistance until the breakout in late 
April.  Since we're using an entry trigger at $33, we should be 
safe to set our initial stop at $35.85, just above last week's 
intraday highs.  Aggressive traders will want to enter on the 
initial breakdown, while more conservative players may want to 
wait for the subsequent oversold rebound to enter on a rollover 
near the $34 level, which is just above the 50-dma, both of which 
should now act as resistance.

Annotated Chart of JPM:


Picked on July 30th at   $33.36
Change since picked       +0.00
Earnings Date           10/15/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  9.55 mln





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 40.03 change: -1.18 stop: 38.50

Well, our CTAS play certainly gave us plenty of excitement to 
round out the week, first with a strong breakout through the $40 
level on Thursday to trigger the play and then a just as powerful 
selloff on Friday to bring it right back to that pivotal $40 
level.  So what does it all mean?  Is it a convenient pullback to 
support following the breakout, making way for new entries.  Or 
is price action telling us the breakout was a bull trap?  Good 
questions!  Until proven wrong, we're going to go with the former 
interpretation, partially because the close back over $40 on 
Friday looks encouraging, but also because Friday's slide came on 
significantly lighter volume than that seen on the upward push on 
Wednesday and Thursday.  That would seem to indicate the pullback 
is simply that, not a reversal.  A dip and rebound from above the 
200-dma ($39.32) looks good for entries, using a stop at $38.50 
(below the 10-dma and the bottom of the 7/24 gap).  Traders 
looking for confirmation of the validity of the breakout will 
want to see CTAS back over $41 before playing.

Picked on July 30th at   $39.90
Change since picked       +0.13
Earnings Date           10/14/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.16 mln



---

Newmont Mining - NEM - cls: 35.58 chng: -0.52 stop: 33.75

It certainly wasn't an auspicious week for our gold play, as NEM 
spend most of its time testing the $35 support level after 
Monday's rejection from the $37 level early in the day.  It 
really wasn't NEM's fault, as the stock was simply responding to 
the sharp pullback in the price of gold, which tumbled nearly $8 
on Friday, coming to rest just above wedge support at $344 and 
the 200-dma at $342.  Given that reality, NEM actually held up 
very well last week, which would seem to indicate this is just an 
orderly pullback.  But the key will be those support levels for 
gold and $35 for NEM.  Should gold lose support, it will likely 
pull NEM back under the $35 level and then we'll be looking at a 
potential test of the stock's recent breakout level near $34.  
That would be the last ditch level for the bulls to defend the 
stock before admitting that the breakout lacked conviction.  On 
the other hand, if gold rebounds from above the 200-dma, then a 
rebound from $35 could be a good entry point.  Maintain stops at 
$33.75 for now.

Picked on July 23rd at   $35.28
Change since picked       +0.30
Earnings Date            7/31/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  4.48 mln




---

PETsMART, Inc. - PETM - cls: 19.23 chg: -0.65 stop: 18.29

On a day when the markets struggled, PETM did too, but found 
support at its 21-dma, outperforming the RLX retail index by this 
measure.  Other measures of relative strength exist, however and 
we notice that PETM's 3.27 percent drop underperformed the retail 
index's 0.78 percent decline.

RSI turned down and now touches its supporting ascending 
trendline.  Watch next week for a violation of that trendline as 
that violation might be a first sign of a deeper pullback to 
come.  The 50-dma now measures 17.98 but rises strongly toward 
our 18.29 stop, the site of historical support/resistance.  Above 
that lies the ascending trendline of the regression channel 
that's been containing PETM's prices since March.  PETM may be 
headed down for a test of that channel's support before rising 
again.  Traders looking for a new entry could target a bounce 
anywhere above $18.70, but should first ensure that RSI has 
turned back up, confirming the bounce.   

Annotated Chart for PETM:


Picked on July 27 at 19.99
Change since picked: -0.76
Earnings Date:    08/28/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.4 million





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Delta Air Lines - DAL - cls: 11.23 chg: -0.67 stop: 12.21

The pilot insists on seatbelts staying buckled on this play.  
Thursday, DAL bumped around like an airliner caught in 
turbulence.  It traded as low as $10.31 and as high as $12.10, a 
huge percentage move for this low-dollar stock, but one that 
preserved the look of the "b" distribution pattern DAL has been 
building. Friday, prices moved back down toward the bottom of the 
pattern. Most importantly, Friday's decline flew the prices back 
below the 200-dma.  

DAL's 5.63 percent decline on Friday trumped the 1.23 percent 
loss of competitor Continental Airlines (CAL), the 3.08 percent 
loss of Northwest Airlines (NWAC), the 4.28 percent loss of AMR, 
and the 2.36 percent loss of the airline index, the XAL.  Early 
in the week, terrorism worries had pummeled the airline stocks, 
but they rebounded Thursday as U.S. officials denied that the 
number of air marshals would be trimmed.  Late in the week, DAL 
also inaugurated several new routes, including a nonstop jet 
service between Nashville and New York, and between St. Louis and 
JFK.  The company introduced special fares and named a vice 
president in charge of global diversity and community affairs. 

None of the good or at least more reassuring news proved 
effective in combating the negative sentiment affecting the 
airline companies.  Friday, Northwest Airlines (NWAC) admitted 
that it would not be able to buy back $225.41 million worth of 
shares issued to employees in the mid-90's in exchange for labor 
concessions.  Although some have been bought back, the deadline 
for buying back the remainder was Friday.  In addition, UAL 
reported a net loss that widened from the previous year.

We're keeping our stop at $12.21 and our target at $9.00.  
Traders seeking a new entry could target a momentum drop through 
11.00.  

Annotated Chart for DAL:


Picked on July 30 at 11.15
Change since picked: +0.08
Earnings Date:    07/17/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.3 million



---


Hovnanian Ent. - HOV - cls: 47.92 chng: -1.43 stop: 50.25*new*

With bond yields continuing to hold near their highs, investors 
in the Housing sector appear to really be getting nervous, and 
that is clearly seen by the critical breakdown in the Dow Jones 
Home Construction index ($DJUSHB), which broke that $414 support 
level we've been focusing on.  That helped to solidify the 
continuing weakness in our HOV play, with Thursday's break of the 
$50 level continuing with a plunge as low as $47.51 on Friday.  
We're getting very close to our $45-46 target on the play, so we 
don't want to consider new entries anymore.  Focus should now 
turn to maximizing gains in the play.  A drop into that target 
zone should be used to harvest gains on a very profitable play.  
Look for downside confirmation from the $DJUSHB on Monday to 
confirm a continued move towards our profit target.  With less 
than $2 to go until reaching the top of that zone, we're getting 
aggressive with our stop this weekend, lowering it to $50.25, 
which is just above Friday's intraday high.  While that is below 
the 10-dma that has been providing resistance, the new stop makes 
sense in that it keeps the risk-reward balance set at roughly 1:1 
for traders still holding out for that final drop.  Conservative 
traders may want to exit near current levels if the stock shows 
signs of strength on Monday.  In either event, we'll be closing 
the play as soon as either our new stop or the $46 level is 
touched.

Picked on July 16th at   $54.25
Change since picked       -6.33
Earnings Date           08/27/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.03 mln
Chart:




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


Henry Schein - HSIC - cls: 57.21  chg: -1.23 stop: 55.45

Quoting services show discrepancies in HSIC's Friday closing 
level, with some services quoting our 57.21 figure and some 
quoting 57.16.  There's no discrepancy, however, about how much 
we hate to let go of this play ahead of August 5 earnings. During 
Friday's weakness, HSIC declined only to next support near 56.80 
and bounced.  Friday's action turned RSI and stochastics down, 
but with the 21-dma rising strongly beneath support, we think any 
HSIC pullbacks will be shallow.  

Unless earnings disappoint.  That's the danger of holding over an 
earnings announcement and the reason we're closing this play this 
weekend.  We suggested Wednesday that traders might begin 
harvesting some of the handsome gains that had been accrued early 
in the week from this quick play, and we hope many did ahead of 
the end-of-week pullback.  Thursday gave traders an opportunity 
exit on strength, with HSIC climbing quickly to 59.49 before 
dropping just as quickly and then recovering.  

Picked on July 27 at 56.75
Change since picked: +0.46
Earnings Date:    08/05/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  346 thousand





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

BEA Systems - BEAS - close: 13.07 change: -0.13 stop: 12.65*new*

Our BEAS play survived a critical test on Friday, after a sharp 
drop at the open.  Falling as low as $12.75 in the opening hour, 
the stock managed to find buyers at the bottom of its ascending 
channel.  But the breakout over $13 clearly seems to be 
weakening, with the trend of lower highs over the past several 
days.  We've been gradually raising our stop just below the 20-
dma (currently $12.65) and Monday's session could prove to be 
make or break for the play.  While volume has been running lower 
than the ADV during this latest decline, it has also been rising 
over the past couple days and a break below $12.75 could see an 
increase in selling volume as investors concede that the breakout 
has failed.  We're not advocating new entries at this point, as 
BEAS seems closer to that breakdown than another test of the $14 
resistance level.  Raise stops to $12.65 this weekend, which will 
be below the 20-dma on Monday.  More conservative traders may 
just want to exit the play on another drop under $13.00.

Picked on July 20th at   $12.79
Change since picked       +0.28
Earnings Date            8/14/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  11.0 mln






=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-03-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 4th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of August 4th
==========================================


-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

AAA    Altana AG             Mon, Aug 04  Before the Bell      N/A
CEPH   Cephalon, Inc.        Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.31
CHD    Church & Dwight Co.   Mon, Aug 04  Before the Bell     0.42
CIG    Co Ener de Minas Ger  Mon, Aug 04  -----N/A-----       0.29
CUZ    Cousins Prop Incorp   Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.52
HNT    Health Net, Inc.      Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.61
HTG    Heritage Prop Invest  Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.64
HBC    HSBC Holdings plc     Mon, Aug 04  04:00 am ET          N/A
MET    MetLife Inc.          Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.70
PRE    PartnerRe Ltd.        Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      1.45
PPS    Post Properties, Inc  Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.49
QGENF  Qiagen N.V.           Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.07
STO    Statoil ASA           Mon, Aug 04  Before the Bell     0.20
SGY    Stone Energy          Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      1.33
PFG    Principal Finl Group  Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell      0.61
TP     TPG NV                Mon, Aug 04  Before the Bell     0.37
X      United States Steel   Mon, Aug 04  -----N/A-----      -0.06
WWCA   Western Wireless      Mon, Aug 04  After the Bell     -0.11
WRC    Westport Res Corp     Mon, Aug 04  -----N/A-----       0.18


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AGI    Alliance Gaming Corp. Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----       0.27
ACAS   Am Capital Strategies Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.66
AMH    AmerUs Group Co.      Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.93
BOX    BOC Group PLC         Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----        N/A
VNT    C. A. Nacl Tele de VenTue, Aug 05  After the Bell     -0.14
CVC    Cablevision Systems   Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell    -0.28
CDX    Catellus Development  Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.37
FUN    Cedar Fair LP         Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----       0.43
CKFR   CheckFree             Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.23
CSCO   Cisco Systems         Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.15
CSR    Credit Suisse Group   Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell      N/A
CEI    Crescent Rl Est Eq    Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.41
CMLS   Cumulus Media Inc.    Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.07
DTC    Domtar Inc.           Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----        N/A
EIX    Edison International  Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.42
EDMC   Education Management  Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.25
EMR    Emerson Electric      Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----       0.74
EXPE   Expedia, Inc          Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.31
EXPD   Expeditors Intl       Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.26
FE     FirstEnergy           Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----       0.53
FMS    Fresenius Med Care    Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell      N/A
GLG    Glamis Gold Ltd       Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.04
GRP    Grant Prideco Inc     Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.05
GTM    GULFTERRA ENERGY PART Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.36
HSIC   Henry Schein          Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.72
HPC    Hercules              Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.21
HPT    Hospitality Prop TrustTue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----       0.91
ICN    ICN Pharmaceuticals   Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.27
ICOS   ICOS Corporation      Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell     -0.42
IACI   INTERACTIVECORP       Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.17
MBI    MBIA Inc.             Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     1.12
MDP    Meredith Corporation  Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.58
OHP    Oxford Health Plans   Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.81
TLK    P.T. Telkom           Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----        N/A
PRU    Prudential Financial  Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.60
PSA    Public Storage        Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----       0.68
RA     Reckson Ass Rlty      Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.54
RMD    ResMed                Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.36
RYAAY  Ryanair Holdings      Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.33
TRK    Speedway Motorsports  Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.87
TLD    TDC A/S               Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell      N/A
TLTOB  Tele2 AB              Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell      N/A
G      The Gillette Company  Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.29
MNY    The MONY Group Inc.   Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.07
SVM    The ServiceMaster Co  Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.23
TM     Toyota Motor Corp     Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----        N/A
TRZ    Trizec Properties     Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.41
UNM    UnumProvident Corp    Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.40
WMI    Waste Management      Tue, Aug 05  -----N/A-----       0.34
WPI    Watson PharmaceuticalsTue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.44
HLTH   WebMD                 Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.10
WTW    Weight Watchers Intl  Tue, Aug 05  After the Bell      0.51
WON    Westwood One          Tue, Aug 05  Before the Bell     0.24


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AAP    Advance Auto Parts    Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      1.05
ASX    Adv Semi Engineering  Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----       0.04
ACF    AmeriCredit Corp.     Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      0.21
AOC    Aon Corporation       Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.45
AIV    Apartment Inv & Man   Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      0.90
RMK    Aramark Corporation   Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.30
ADP    Automatic Data Proc   Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----        N/A
AVT    Avnet                 Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----       0.10
AXS    Axis Capital Hold LmtdWed, Aug 06  After the Bell       N/A
BAY    Bayer                 Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----        N/A
EAT    Brinker International Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.56
CPN    Calpine Corporation   Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----       0.03
CNQ    Canadian Nat Res Lmtd Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----       1.13
CHINA  chinadotcom corp      Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.02
DVN    Devon Energy Corp     Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     1.52
EOG    EOG Resources         Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----       0.84
FST    Forest Oil Corp       Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      0.57
GALN   Galen Holdings PLC    Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.45
HIG    Hartford Finl Serv    Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      1.18
KSE    KeySpan               Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.14
LAMR   LAMAR ADVERTISING CO  Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.02
MGA    Magna International   Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----       1.68
MAS    Masco                 Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.46
MCCC   Mediacom Comm Corp    Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell    -0.22
MME    Mid Atlantic Med Serv Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      0.76
NVO    Novo-Nordisk          Wed, Aug 06  -----N/A-----        N/A
OGE    OGE Energy            Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.30
PSC    Philadelphia Suburban Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.23
RL     Polo Ralph Lauren CorpWed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.04
PL     Protective Life Corp  Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.67
DNY    RR Donnelley          Wed, Aug 06  Before the Bell     0.21
SRV    Service Corp Intl     Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      0.07
SHU    Shurgard St Centers   Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell      0.65
SIRI   Sirius Satellite RadioWed, Aug 06  Before the Bell    -0.11
TOT    Total                 Wed, Aug 06  During the Market   1.54
TRN    Trinity Industries    Wed, Aug 06  After the Bell     -0.17


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ABN    ABN Amro Holdings     Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell      N/A
AEG    AEGON N.V.            Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----       0.25
ATK    Alliant Techsystems   Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.82
BCS    Barclays Bank PLC     Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell      N/A
BRL    Barr Laboratories     Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.71
BF     BASF                  Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----        N/A
BNN    BRASCAN CORP          Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----       0.36
BGG    Briggs & Stratton CorpThu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     1.20
CZN    Citizens Comm         Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.11
CNA    CNA Financial Corp    Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.35
DF     Dean Foods            Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.57
ELX    Emulex                Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----       0.22
EVC    Entravision Comm Corp Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell    -0.01
HCC    HCC Insurance HoldingsThu, Aug 07  After the Bell      0.51
IDA    Idacorp Holding       Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.32
KGC    Kinross Gold          Thu, Aug 07  After the Bell      0.01
LNC    Lincoln National      Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.86
LTR    Loews Corp.           Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     1.36
MAC    Macerich Co           Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----       0.83
CLI    Mack-Cali Realty Corp Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.90
NXL    New Plan Excel Rlty   Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----       0.47
NVDA   NVIDIA Corporation    Thu, Aug 07  After the Bell      0.12
PNRA   Panera Bread          Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.18
PIXR   Pixar Animat Studios  Thu, Aug 07  After the Bell      0.22
ROIAK  Radio One             Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.10
RUK    Reed Elsevier NV/Plc. Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----        N/A
SRE    Sempra Energy         Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell     0.60
SPIL   SILICONWARE PRECISION Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----       0.02
TS     TENARIS S A           Thu, Aug 07  -----N/A-----       0.61
UVV    Universal Corporation Thu, Aug 07  After the Bell       N/A
UVN    Univision Comm        Thu, Aug 07  After the Bell      0.13
WIN    Winn-Dixie Stores     Thu, Aug 07  After the Bell      0.28
XMSR   XM Satellite Radio    Thu, Aug 07  Before the Bell    -1.28
 

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

HME  Home Properties         Fri, Aug 08  Before the Bell     0.76
KNBWY  Kirin Brewery Company Fri, Aug 08  -----N/A-----        N/A
VNO  Vornado Realty Trust    Fri, Aug 08  -----N/A-----       1.05
WR  Westar Energy, Inc.      Fri, Aug 08  Before the Bell      N/A


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

RARE    Rare Hospitality          3:2      Aug  11th   Aug  12th
ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare        3:2      Aug  12th   Aug  13th
OSK     Oshkosh Truck             2:1      Aug  13th   Aug  14th
REBC    Redwood Empire            3:2      Aug  13th   Aug  14th
SCHN    Schnitzer Steel           2:1      Aug  14th   Aug  15th
RNT     Aaron Rents               3:2      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
ARRO    Arrow Intl                2:1      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
JEF     Jeffries Group            2:1      Aug  15th   Aug  18th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Wall Street still has plenty of earnings announcements to process
but it's the economic news that is making headlines and moving
the market.  This week most of the economic reports are on Thursday.


==============================================================
                       -For-           

----------------
Monday, 08/04/03
----------------
Factory Orders (DM)     Jun  Forecast:    1.5%  Previous:     0.4%


----------------
Tuesday, 08/05/03
----------------
ISM Services (DM)       Jul  Forecast:    58.0  Previous:     60.6


-------------------
Wednesday, 08/06/03
-------------------
None


------------------
Thursday, 08/07/03
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   08/02  Forecast:    393K  Previous:     388K
Productivity-Prel (BB)   Q2  Forecast:    2.2%  Previous:     1.9%
Wholesale Invntories(DM)Jun  Forecast:    0.0%  Previous:    -0.3%
Consumer Credit (DM)    Jun  Forecast:   $6.9B  Previous:    $7.3B


----------------
Friday, 08/08/03
----------------
None


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available




======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CYH     Community Health Sys       23.00     +0.80
WGO     Winnebago Industries       42.49     +2.93
TGIC    Triad Guaranty Inc         47.29     +1.29
MMS     Maximus Inc                33.00     +3.00
UHCO    Universal American          7.39     +0.67
MALL    PC Mall Inc                 8.40     +1.04

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

WFII    Wireless Facilities Inc    13.46     +1.42
IT      Gartner Group Inc           9.88     +1.09
SLNK    Spectralink Corp           18.38     +1.80
BPUR    Biopure Corp                7.30     +1.33
PEET    Peet's Coffee & Tea        19.57     +1.21

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
IRF     Intl Rectifier Corp        30.87     +3.27
RIMM    Research In Motion         27.28     +3.20
BOBJ    Business Objects           25.43     +1.15
FS      Four Seasons               45.86     +2.96
UNTD    United Online              33.64     +2.26
NIHD    NII Holdings               51.33     +2.18
RAH     Ralcorp Holdings           28.07     +1.03

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

JPM     JP Morgan                  33.36     -1.69
XL      XL Capital                 74.99     -4.51
JHF     John Hancock               30.61     -2.04
CFC     Countrywide Financial      65.08     -1.73
TBH     Telecom Brazil Sa          23.93     -1.75
ACGL    Arch Capital Group         32.00     -2.30

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

UBS     UBS Ag                     57.86     -0.44
CF      Charter One Financial      31.71     -0.81
SKYF    Sky Financial              22.74     -0.51
RWT     Redwood Trust              38.75     -2.05
SYNO    Synovis Life Tech          24.87     -1.83



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