Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 08/07/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 08-07-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Competition Terminated
Watch List:       WMB, HAS, PMCS, BLL and more!
Market Sentiment: Option Market Warning

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      08-07-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9126.45 + 64.70  9135.00  9031.14 1.59 bln   1968/1224
NASDAQ   1652.18 -  0.50  1658.43  1641.74 1.60 bln   1470/1697
S&P 100   491.76 +  3.63   492.20   486.45   Totals   3438/2921
S&P 500   974.12 +  7.04   974.89   963.82
W5000    9362.38 + 54.90  9365.90  9276.22
RUS 2000  453.77 -  0.14   454.22   449.97
DJ TRANS 2550.77 + 17.00  2551.68  2529.73
VIX        21.89 -  1.41    23.57    21.73
VXN        34.02 -  0.40    35.83    33.98
Total Volume 3,406M
Total UpVol  1,714M
Total DnVol  1,638M
52wk Highs  164
52wk Lows    59
TRIN       1.12
NAZTRIN    1.39
PUT/CALL   1.02
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Competition Terminated

Arnold announced his candidacy for governor of California and
previously announced candidates began dropping out in droves.
Traders not in California could have cared less. The media
panic and rush to document every word and deed done by the
Running Man drowned out some pretty positive market news.
The intraday market action was positively dead and the major
markets traded well below their recent volumes. Yawn.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


S&P Chart - Daily


Wilshire 5000 Chart - Daily



The morning started off well with Chain Store Sales for July
soaring +4.3%, well over expectations. The good news was across
the board with several major retailers raising guidance for the
quarter. This was the strongest advance in 13 months. The good
news was due to sales from heavy discounting, the first wave
of tax rebate checks and warmer weather after a soggy May/June.
Department stores posted their first gain in same store sales
since November 2001. The hot weather prompted strong sales of
seasonal summer products with July being the 12th warmest on
record. WMT, FD, BBY, ANN and GPS all raised earnings guidance
on the better than expected news. July is the month that all
retailers try to dump the summer merchandise in preparation
for the shift to fall and back to school specials. It appears
the hot weather produced more sales than the tax checks since
the first wave began delivering on July-25th and would have
had limited impact at the register. This sets up August as a
banner month with all reports that back to school sales have
started off with a bang.

Adding to the premarket excitement was another drop in Jobless
Claims to 390,000 and the third consecutive week under 400K.
This was the last week of adjustment to offset expected auto
maker retooling layoffs. Next week we are on our own again and
with the +72,000 spike in continuing claims it is evident that
getting a job is still tough and getting tougher. Also, in two
weeks the summer vacation season will be over and many more
unemployed workers will get back the business of finding a job.
Temp workers will find themselves unemployed again with the
vacationing full timers back at work. The key week in my
opinion is the week ending September 12th. The first full,
post summer week should be a key indicator for the real health
of the job market.

Hurting the job market was the surging Productivity, which came
in today at +5.7% and well over estimates of +4.6%. The big
gains came from a sharp drop in hours worked and higher output.
This gain was more than twice the +2.1% in the first quarter.
Overall hours worked dropped -2.7% but manufacturing hours
worked dropped -6.1%. This huge drop in hours skewed the
headline number and while some traders took it as a positive
others did not. The reason hours worked dropped so significantly
is due to continued layoffs and less product demand. Employers
continue to be pressed to reduce costs and much of those costs
savings come from layoffs. Manufacturing output declined despite
the gain in the headline numbers. It will be interesting to see
what revisions are made to this productivity number next month.

Wholesale Inventories remained flat in June after two months
of declines. The only real rise in the components was a rise
in automobile inventories. That could be disturbing as it
indicates sales are slowing as the model year comes to a close.
Sales for all products did rise but not enough to make a
material change in the numbers.

Consumer Credit shocked analysts by dropping -$400 million
when they had expected a gain of +$6-$7 billion. Suddenly
consumers are not pulling that plastic out to pay for
purchases. Considering the sharp rise in retail sales this
number poses some confusion to analysts. It is unlikely the
consumer suddenly decided to pay cash just when interest
rates were putting a stop to the refinancing bonanza. It is
also possible this drop could be in response to the record
number of refinancings over the last two months and the
resulting payoff of high interest credit cards with the
proceeds. This number tends to be very volatile and is
subject to monthly revisions. The market reacted calmly to
the announcement due to the confusion numbers.

Other than Arnold the big news of the day was the last auction
of treasury notes which went as expected. This was a relief for
the markets which were afraid the demand for bonds had dried
up. The bid-to-cover for the 10-year notes came in at 2.0 which
means there were bids for twice as many bonds as there were
bonds offered. The price went at 4.36% yield and only .01%
less than the market rate just before the auction. Once it was
completed the bond markets flip flopped on both sides of the
price and yields finished negative for the day at 4.22% as
traders decided maybe the worst was over and bought bonds. As
I sat and pondered this today it occurred to me that much of
the panic in the bond market could have been caused by the
26 primary dealers who took down the majority of the $60
billion in notes this week. If you knew that you were going
to have to eat $60 billion of product six weeks in advance it
would certainly behoove you to drive that price as far from
the record highs as possible. You are not going to make a lot
of money buying $60 billion in bonds at 45 year highs. Could
they really drive bonds down to where they could afford to
absorb that much inventory? Absolutely. If the major dealers
simply withdrew their bids then the weight of the market would
do the rest. It happens in the market every day. Once the panic
begins all they have to do is watch and continue to lowball
the bids to make sure it does not recover.

Meanwhile the rest of the consumer market has seen a record
rise in rates over the last six weeks as a result. Prior to
June 30th there was only one 25-point move in interest rates
in a single day over the last three years. There was eight of
those moves in the last three weeks. This is unprecedented
and a 100-year storm in the bond market according to Franklin
Raines, CEO of Fannie Mae. 30-year mortgage rates rose to
6.34% today after hitting 5.25% six weeks ago. Fannie Mae
came under attack today with a news article claiming FNM had
suffered huge losses due to the bond crash because they had
taken undue interest risks. The stock opened down sharply
but recovered intraday after FNM denied the allegations.
FNM sold $2 billion in 3-year notes on Thursday. Do you
think they could be plugging holes in their cash flow from
the 100-year storm? Earnings for the major financial stocks
for the 3Q are going to be real exciting as we see who took
a hit and who didn't.

The markets wandered higher after an early morning dip or
maybe I should say the Dow wandered higher. The Nasdaq was
weak all day and spent only a brief period in positive
territory. The markets expected a positive conclusion to the
three day bond auction but were nervous before the results
were announced at 1:PM. The fear was a weak auction which
would indicate more bond sales and higher rates ahead. When
the auction was over the indexes breathed a sigh of relief
and rallied to resistance only to be knocked back by selling
once again. As we approached the Consumer Credit at 3:PM
the bears managed to push the Dow back below 9100 for the
last time. Seven times the Dow crossed 9100 today before
finally ending at 9126.

The Nasdaq managed to get back to flat at the close but techs
are still suffering from the Cisco hangover. The Nasdaq is
well under 1700 at 1653 and down more than 100 points from the
1757 high last Thursday. Earnings after the close today did
little to provide hope for tomorrow despite some decent results.
The results from PIXR and NVDA were mixed with PIXR soaring on
the Finding Nemo film and NVDA warning on flat margins and
increasing expenses. With PIXR seen as a cyclical event and
one not likely to be repeated next quarter the futures were
trading down slightly in after hours.

All in all for the first week in August the markets have held
up extremely well. The Dow refuses to break 9000 and 9100 has
turned into the mother of all price magnets. As long as this
trend holds the end of quarter rebound could start from a nice
comfortable level. Should the trend fail and the Dow break 9000
it could get ugly fast. Traders are always encouraged when
volume accompanies an up move. That was not the case today. It
was simply a matter of the path of least resistance and a little
short covering after the bond auction failed to tank the market.
Volume on the NYSE was only 1.3 billion and 1.6 billion for the
Nasdaq.

Dow downtrend chart - 30 min


The markets closed at serious resistance and it might be
difficult to move up in the morning without some help from Asia
and Europe. The Dow has strong resistance at 9130 and closed at
9126. The Nasdaq has strong resistance at 1650 and it closed
just over that level at 1653. The S&P has strong resistance at
975 and it closed at 974.30. All of these indexes are poised to
either explode or implode at the open. There are no economic
reports on Friday and the markets will be left to find their
own level. Considering how they have ignored good news lately
they may be better off on their own. We have retraced +89 Dow
points of the -149 lost on Tuesday and the oversold conditions
have eased considerably. However, we are still down -235 points
from last Thursday's high of 9361. The two-week trend is still
down until we move back above 9200. Friday may not hold the
answer to the mystery as volume should be the lightest of the
summer with no catalyst to spark a move. Could be a good day
for Saddam to surrender.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Williams Companies - WMB - close: 7.02 change: +0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Launching higher in its second day of strong
gains, WMB finally broke out of the descending channel (bull
flag) in which it has been trapped since early June.  Look for
entry on a dip to test the top of that flag near $6.75 or else
wait for a break above Thursday's high.  While resistance will be
found near the 50-dma, continued strong buying should have the
June highs near $9 in play.




---

Hasbro Inc. - HAS - close: 19.07 change: +0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: When we last looked at shares of HAS, we were
looking for a breakout over the $18.50 level and it was nice to
see the stock cooperate, running up to the $19.20 area.  Well,
after a brief pullback, it looks like an encore performance is
setting up.  Look for a breakout over $19.25 and target a near-
term move to $21.




---

PMC-Sierra - PMCS - close: 10.49 change: -0.32

WHAT TO WATCH: Sitting right on the neckline, PMCS is about to
give a nice breakdown from its Head & Shoulders pattern that has
been forming since early June.  Look for a break of $10.35 to
trigger entry and target a downside objective of $8, which is
just above the 200-dma.




---

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 48.86 change: +0.36

WHAT TO WATCH: BLL's launch off its July lows was a tough play to
catch, but more timid bulls are getting a second chance  The
stock has pulled back from the 200-dma, and is consolidating just
above $47 support.  Entries here should work up to the 200-dma,
and a breakout above that important level could have the bulls
targeting $54.





===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

RSH $25.62 - The bullishness found in shares of BBY today
certainly didn't spill over into the other electronics retailers,
as RSH continued its slide below the 50-dma, putting it right on
the cusp of a H&S breakdown.  Look for a break of the neckline at
$25.25 and target a move down to the $22.50-23.00 support area.

ADP $37.42 - It isn't exciting, but ADP is certainly consistent.
Ignoring the gyrations in the broad market, the stock has been
steadily marching higher in a tight-range ascending channel and
appears ready to break higher again.  A break above $38 could
inject some excitement into the stock though, uncorking a short-
term move up to $40.

AMD $7.56 - It may be the weak little brother of Chip giant INTC,
but AMD is trying to put in a bullish move here after basing
above both its 50-dma and 200-dma for most of the past month.
Look for a break above $7.75 to set off a rally with a likely
near-term target of $8.50 and potential for a move above $9.00.



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Option Market Warning
Jonathan Levinson

Today's session opened lower and saw traders fearful of an
anticipated decline.  Yesterday's close was very bearish for the
Nasdaq as well as the S&P, and all but the shortest cycle
indicators were warning bulls of impending downside.

Predictably, the put to call ratio shot higher from its first
readings, as did the VIX.  The CBOE p/c ratio started at 1.04 and
spiked to 1.29 for the second half hour of trading, drifting down
to a low of .95 in the afternoon before bouncing anew.  The VIX,
meanwhile, opened flat in the 23.50 area, and sunk lower
throughout the session.

We observed in the futures monitor that the opening put to call
ratio was too high for bears' comfort, and reiterated the warning
with the 1.29 print.  Looking at the chart of the VIX, it appears
that sellers of puts were willing to part with their contracts
for decreasing amounts of premium as the session progressed.

While these secondary indicators are not certain because of the
wide range of options strategies available, it appears that put
writers were dumping puts at an increasing rate throughout the
session.  If there is such as thing as "smart" money, which is
seriously open to debate, it was making bullish bets throughout
the duration of the session, and increasingly so as the session
wore on.  Regardless of the economic news or chart patterns, such
action intraday is a clear warning from the options market for
bears to tighten their stops, and bulls to look for possible
entries.

As we approach options expiration week next week, options will
become an increasingly important driver of underlying price.
While one can debate whether derivative instruments which move
the markets are truly derivatives or not, smart traders will be
keeping a watchful eye on the different option volatility and
volume indicators in the upcoming sessions.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9361
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9126

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9175
 50-dma: 9111
200-dma: 8544

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1015
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  974

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  983
 50-dma:  987
200-dma:  912

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1217

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1256
 50-dma: 1239
200-dma: 1094


-----------------------------------------------------------------

As Jon pointed out in his commentary above, the VIX and VXN appear
to be acting rather oddly.  The big move down from Wednesday's high
in the VIX would make one think there was a large rally in the
market to necessitate such a reduction in investor concern.  We saw
no such rally.  Remember, the VIX tends to go up as the markets fall
and vice versa.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 21.89 -1.41
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 34.02 -0.40


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.02        530,986       542,475
Equity Only    0.91        405,949       369,369
OEX            0.90         27,394        24,674
QQQ            4.45         23,708       105,511


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          67.7    - 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    66.0    - 4     BEAR CONFIRMED
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       73.4    - 1     Bull Correction
S&P 100       80.0    - 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.16
10-Day Arms Index  1.06
21-Day Arms Index  1.05
55-Day Arms Index  1.10


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1708      1414
Decliners    1103      1598

New Highs      48        81
New Lows       15        12

Up Volume    983M      591M
Down Vol.    599M     1016M

Total Vol.  1603M     1634M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/29/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Still looking at a lack of major change in the large S&P futures
contracts.  Commercial traders and small traders have yet to make
any big moves lately.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/08/03      415,053   453,720   (38,667)   (4.5%)
07/15/03      414,020   453,033   (39,013)   (4.5%)
07/22/03      411,206   442,131   (30,925)   (3.6%)
07/29/03      405,429   445,114   (39,685)   (4.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03      152,239    74,749    77,490    34.2%
07/15/03      148,716    70,279    78,437    35.8%
07/22/03      155,891    76,466    79,425    34.2%
07/29/03      155,216    73,030    82,186    36.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Quite the opposite of the large S&P futures above, we're seeing
some big differences in the e-mini positions.  Commercial traders
have turned very bullish while the small traders is increasing
their net bearish positions.  These are new milestones for both.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/08/03      192,815   224,124    (31,309)  ( 7.5%)
07/15/03      214,274   218,765    ( 4,491)  ( 1.0%)
07/22/03      249,392   249,386          6     0.0%
07/29/03      272,659   216,166     56,493    11.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   56,493   - 07/29/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03       56,394    72,090   (15,696)  (12.2%)
07/15/03       45,372    54,654    (9,282)   (9.3%)
07/22/03       45,945    76,071   (30,126)  (24.7%)
07/29/03       44,437    93,144   (48,707)  (35.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (48,707)  - 07/29/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is very little change in positions for either the
small trader or the commercials.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03       30,489     48,311   (17,822) (22.6%)
07/15/03       28,467     49,154   (20,687) (26.7%)
07/22/03       32,502     48,139   (15,637) (19.4%)
07/29/03       31,456     50,294   (18,838) (23.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,687)  - 07/15/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03       26,136     9,035    17,101    48.6%
07/15/03       26,489     8,004    18,485    53.6%
07/22/03       27,321     8,844    18,477    51.1%
07/29/03       25,691     7,810    17,881    53.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

It's the same story here.  Maybe it's the summer doldrums
that's leaving the size of futures positions in a very sideways
trend.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/08/03       20,752    11,860    8,892      27.3%
07/15/03       21,607     7,855   13,752      46.7%
07/22/03       22,198     8,176   14,022      46.2%
07/29/03       23,696     9,572   14,124      42.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/08/03        5,005     8,093   (3,088)   (23.6%)
07/15/03        5,475     9,717   (4,242)   (27.9%)
07/22/03        6,110    10,898   (4,788)   (28.2%)
07/29/03        5,744    11,601   (5,857)   (33.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------





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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 08-07-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Play of the Day:     All Aboard!

Closed Plays:        ALTR, CTAS, BEAS

Split Announcements: JCOM, PSUN, UTSI, COH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Play-of-the-Day  ( Bullish )
===============

Newmont Mining - NEM - close: 36.95 change: +0.07 stop: 35.15

Company Description:
Newmont Mining Corporation is a holding company and is principally
engaged in gold mining.  As of the end of 2002, the company had
gold reserves of 86.9 million equity ounces and an aggregate land
position of approximately 63,000 square miles.  NEM has operations
in North America, South America, Australia, New Zealand,
Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Turkey.  In 2002, the company obtained
more than 69% of its equity gold production from politically and
economically stable countries, namely the United States, Canada
and Australia.

Why we like it:
Gold bugs rejoice!  While there wasn't much life in the price of
the yellow metal on Wednesday, with the August futures contract
ending at $350, our NEM play caught a very strong rebound from the
10-dma ($35.92), ending the day at $36.88, a new 5-year high.
We've been looking for entries either on a bounce from just above
$35 or on a breakout through last week's intraday high of $36.90.
So far, this week has provided both, with Monday's intraday low of
$35.29 and today's intraday high of $37.00.  Volume was on the
high side as well, confirming the strength of the breakout, and
once over $37, NEM should be able to make steady progress towards
our $39 target.  Traders still looking for new entries will want
to look for either another rebound from the 10-dma or a clean
break above $37.  Raise stops to $31.15, just below the bottom of
the recent consolidation pattern.

Why This is our Play of the Day
While the rest of the market can't make up its mind whether to
rally or fall, the action in the Gold sector is looking pretty
healthy.  The Amex Gold Bugs index (HUI.X) is threatening to break
out to new highs, the price of gold is holding above strong
support, and our NEM play is flirting with a breakout of its own.
The past 2 days have seen the stock trading at or above the $37
level at some point during the day and traders who entered on that
breakout should be well-positioned for the expected rise.  Those
waiting for a pullback to support above $36 before playing
(specifically at the 10-dma) may get their chance as well.  Once
the stock closes above $37, it is likely to pick up steam and
achieve our $39 target in relatively short order.  Buy the
breakout over $37 (or today's $37.12 intraday high if you prefer)
or a rebound from above the 10-dma, as it looks like this train is
about to leave the station.

Annotated Chart of NEM:


Picked on July 23rd at   $35.28
Change since picked       +1.67
Earnings Date            7/31/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  4.47 mln


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================


Tech Stock
----------


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


Altera Corp. - ALTR - close: 18.40  change: -0.49 stop: 18.69

We shoulda have closed this play yesterday.  Better yet, we
coulda set a trigger one cent higher, and the play never woulda
triggered.  Monday, ALTR moved to a day's and week's high of
20.05, triggering our play before dropping through the rest of
the week.  Wednesday, it climbed as high as $19.05 before
dropping through the rest of the day, hitting our stop within
fifteen minutes of the open.  Although the $SOX hit support and
bounced slightly into the close, ALTR never even made that
effort, closing near the day's low of $18.29.  It looks as if
it's headed down to test next support between $17.75-18.00.  If
that support fails to hold, $16.00 appears to be next.

Picked on August 3 at 19.75
Change since picked:  -1.35
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  8.2 million




Active Trader
-------------

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 39.13 change: +0.20 stop: 38.50

Chalk it up to bad timing, poor stop placement or just poor
selection, our CTAS play just never worked out for us and after
our stop was hit today, it is time to pull the plug.  In
actuality, you could have made money on the play if you bought
the breakout over $40 last Thursday and quickly exited when the
stock rolled over just below $42.  But that's not a claim we can
make.  With resistance once again appearing near $40 and today's
violation of the $38.50 level, we just don't feel good about
sitting around waiting for CTAS to come back to life and charge
through resistance.  We'll take our fractional loss and then
scare up some fresh candidates for the weekend.

Picked on July 30th at   $39.90
Change since picked       -0.77
Earnings Date           10/14/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.19 mln





High Risk/Reward
----------------

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


BEA Systems - BEAS - close: 12.76 change: -0.13 stop: 12.74

For all its gyrating around over the past 3 weeks, we've got to
admit being pretty disappointed with our BEAS play.  Oh sure, it
actually ran as high as $13.78, and there were numerous
opportunities for traders to harvest some minor gains above the
$13.50 level, but we really thought a breakout over $14 was in
the cards.  With the stock closing under $13 for the second day
in a row and closing under the 20-dma for the first time in a
month, we want to take our leave of BEAS.  So perhaps it is a
blessing in disguise that we were stopped out today, saving us
another day of watching the stock bleed lower.

Picked on July 20th at   $12.79
Change since picked       -0.03
Earnings Date            8/14/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  10.6 mln






=================================================================
Stock Split Announcements
=================================================================

JCOM messages shareholders on a 2-for-1 stock split

Before today's opening bell, J2 Global Communication Inc's
(NASDAQ:JCOM) Board of Directors announced a 2-for-1 stock split
of the company's common shares.

The company's stock split will be payable on August 29th, 2003, to
shareholders on record as of August 18th.  The stock is up 180%
over the past year.  This split will increase JCOM's shares to
approximately 22.8 million.

This is JCOM's first split since the first quarter of 2001.


About the company:
Founded in 1995, j2 Global Communications, Inc., provides
outsourced, value-added messaging and communications services to
more than five million customers around the world. j2 Global's
network spans more than 1,000 cities in 19 countries on five
continents. The Company offers its patented services and software
through three distinct sales channels: Web, Corporate and Licensed
Services, and markets those services under the j2., eFax.,
jConnect., jFax., Consensus(TM), Hotsend., PaperMaster., Protofax.
and Documagix. brands. As of June 30, 2003, j2 Global had achieved
25 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and six consecutive
quarters of positive earnings. For more information about j2
Global, please visit www.j2global.com .
(Source: Company Press Release)


---

PSUN racks up another 3-for-2 stock split

Before today's opening bell, Pacific Sunwear of California Inc's
(NASDAQ:PSUN) Board of Directors declared a 3-for-2 stock split of
the company's common shares.

The company's stock split will be payable on September 5th, 2003,
to shareholders on record as of August 25th.  The stock is up 180%
from its October 2002 lows.  This split will increase PSUN's
shares to approximately 77.3 million.

This will be PSUN's third 3:2 stock split since the middle of
1999.

About the company:
Pacific Sunwear is a leading specialty retailer of everyday casual
apparel, accessories and footwear designed to meet the needs of
active teens and young adults. As of Aug. 2, 2003, the company
operated 650 PacSun stores, 75 PacSun outlet stores and 114
d.e.m.o. stores for a total of 839 stores in 49 states and Puerto
Rico. PacSun's Web site address is www.pacsun.com.
(Source: Company Press Release)

---



UTSI wires shareholders a proposal of a 2-for-1 stock split

Minutes before the opening bell, UTStarcom Inc's (NASDAQ:UTSI)
Board of Directors talk of plans to pursue a 2-for-1 stock split
of the company's common shares.

The company's said the stock split would be in the form of a stock
dividend, should shareholders approve of the split.

Since being listed on the NASDAQ in 2000, the company has yet to
split its stock.


About the company:
Founded in 1991 and headquartered in Alameda, California,
UTStarcom is a leading global provider of wireless and wireline
access and IP switching solutions. The company designs,
manufactures, sells, and installs an integrated suite of future-
ready access network and next-generation switching solutions. We
enable wireless and wireline operators in fast-growth markets
worldwide to offer voice, data, and Internet access services
rapidly and cost effectively by utilizing their existing
infrastructure.  UTStarcom's products provide a seamless migration
from wireline to wireless, from narrowband to broadband, and from
circuit- to packet-based networks by employing "Next Generation
Network Technology. Now." The company's customers include public
telecommunications service providers that operate wireless and
wireline voice and data networks in rapidly growing communications
markets around the world.
(Source: Company Press Release)


---

COH bags another 2-for-1 stock split

Minutes after the closing bell, Coach Inc's (NYSE:COH) Board of
Directors declared a 2-for-1 stock split of the company's common
shares.  The stock split will take the form of a special dividend,
where each shareholder will get one share of the company's common
stock for every share outstanding.

The company's stock split will be payable on October 1st, 2003, to
shareholders on record as of September 17th.  This stock split
will increase COH's shares to 183 million.

This is COH's first stock split since the middle of last year.

About the company:
Coach, with headquarters in New York, is a leading American
marketer of fine accessories and gifts for women and men,
including handbags, women's and men's small leathergoods, business
cases, weekend and travel accessories, footwear, watches,
outerwear, jewelry, sunwear, furniture and related accessories.
Coach is sold worldwide through Coach stores, select department
stores and specialty stores, through the Coach catalogue in the
U.S. by calling 1-800-223-8647 and through Coach's website at
www.coach.com. Coach's shares are traded on The New York Stock
Exchange under the symbol COH.
(Source: Company Press Release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

RD      Royal Dutch Petrol         44.62     +1.12
KRB     MBNA Corp                  22.82     +0.82
ECA     Encana Corp                36.39     +1.27
BR      Burlington Resources       49.03     +1.59
APA     Apache Corp                65.15     +2.25
FD      Federated Dept Stores      40.59     +1.74

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

THC     Tenet Healthcare           14.57     +1.52
MSS     Measurement Specialities    9.46     +1.46

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

WMT     Wal-Mart Stores            57.00     +1.26
HIG     Hartford Fncl Srvcs        53.40     +2.66
BBY     Best Buy Co                46.49     +5.81
PSA     Public Storage Inc         37.00     +1.21
HU      Hudson United              40.14     +1.26
ANN     Ann Taylor Stores          30.85     +1.55
STRA    Strayer Education          89.08     +1.02

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

LMT     Lockheed Martin            49.70     -1.20
LTR     Loews Corp                 42.72     -2.99
CNA     CNA Financial              22.65     -2.02
CG      Carolina Group             21.80     -3.26
RJR     RJ Reynolds                33.14     -1.21
MIK     Michaels Stores            35.31     -1.77

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

GISX   Global Imaging Systems      24.04     -0.60




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