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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 08/10/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-10-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Bond, Treasury Bond
Play-of-the-Day:  Let's Clear the Air
Market Sentiment: Breaking Ranks

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 8-08         WE 8-01         WE 7-25         WE 7-18
DOW     9191.09 + 37.12 9153.97 -130.60 9284.57 + 96.42 + 68.56
Nasdaq  1644.03 - 71.59 1715.62 - 15.08 1730.70 + 22.20 - 25.43
S&P-100  493.80 +  0.16  493.64 -  9.30  502.94 +  1.44 -   .98
S&P-500  977.59 -  2.56  980.15 - 18.53  998.68 +  5.36 -  4.82
W5000   9392.73 - 61.43 9454.16 -145.20 9599.36 + 52.70 - 64.23
RUT      453.94 - 14.14  468.08 -  0.80  468.88 +  4.12 -  9.01
TRAN    2579.03 - 16.88 2595.91 - 19.88 2615.79 + 39.50 + 30.71
VIX       21.29 -  1.49   22.78 +  2.84   19.94 -  1.42 +   .64
VXN       32.03 -  0.45   32.48 +  2.44   30.04 -  3.37 +   .61
TRIN       0.87            1.08            0.67            0.60
Put/Call   0.81            0.91            0.67            0.61
Avg Highs   189             462             365             522
Avg Lows     86              72              31              29
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Bond, Treasury Bond
by Jim Brown

Not quite the catchy moniker that James Bond uses and attractive
double agents don't swoon when they hear it but it still controls
our fate. As much as I hate to keep writing about it I hate more
watching the markets tick up or down in lock step with changes
in the bond market. That was exactly what happened this week
with the closing rebound on Friday only coming after the bond
market closed.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


S&P Chart - Daily


Wilshire 5000 Chart - Daily


It has been a pattern all week with the market making major
moves after the bond market closed and the perceived danger
passed. I am going to try and explain the problem with
pictures and I promise I will be brief. The yields on bonds
have gone from abnormally low levels to abnormally high levels
and it caught the stock market off guard just like it caught
bond traders off guard. While everyone was pleased to see
yields fall this week after the three day bond auction they
did not drop far. They also did not drop below support at
4.20%. The stock market watched the yields with a nervous
twitch all day Friday to see if the panic selling in bonds
was over. The yield rise into the close was disturbing but
the Dow managed to close with a +30 point spurt on short
covering and possible Saddam speculation.

10-year Treasury Yields - 60 min


While the markets were pleased to see the drop from the 4.95%
high on August 1st the drop to 4.28% on Friday was really just
an oversold correction and not meaningful in the long term
scheme. The chart below shows how minor the drop was this week.

10-year Treasury Yields - Daily


Why do we care what is happening in the bond market? Because
the bond market yields impact the economy and stocks and they
are permanently linked. I will get to the details in a minute
but suffice to say if yields go down (bonds up) the economy
benefits and the market rises. Conversely if yields go up the
economy suffers and the market falls. This chart shows the
relationship between the S&P (red) and 10-year yield (black).
Note the basic divergence in March and April and then the
extreme divergence in June. In June the extremes in yield
lows and market highs were abnormal. Now that yields have
risen and do not appear to be falling the natural tendency
would be for the S&P to revert back to the historical
divergence and move to a lower level.

10-year Treasury Yields/S&P - Daily


Now that I have totally bored you I will try and wrap this up
quickly. The market direction is locked to the bond yields
because the cost of borrowing affects everything we do. Costs
for new equipment, inventory, office buildings, computers and
home mortgages all depend on rates. Every quarter point has an
impact as we have seen from Fed rate changes over the years.
We have had the equivalent of four 25-point rate hikes over
the last six weeks. This is far faster than the Fed has acted
in recent memory. Image the carnage in the market if the Fed
had announced a surprise 25 point rate hike four times in the
last six weeks. The Dow would be trading at 8000 instead of
9000. Now I ask you, what is the difference? The rates still
changed and the market has not yet reacted. It is as if the
market is hoping to wake up on Monday and find out it was just
a nightmare. Don't hold your breath.

According to bond junkies this has been the worst quarter for
bonds since 1987 and we all know what happened then. While the
conditions are considerably different in 2003 the damage may
take some time to work out of the system. Traders simply do
not know what to expect. Everyone is looking at everyone else
for direction.

While indecision is running rampant there is a stealth bear
market in techs hiding behind the major indexes. The Nasdaq
has traded down five of the last six days and lost -71 points
for the week. Why you ask? First because the techs were up as
much as 50% since the lows and funds eager to show gains and
unsure of the future are locking in profits. In any bull move
and especially one as strong as we have had there is normally
a 10% correction or better when the move runs out of steam.
It appears the Nasdaq is feeling this pain especially after
Cisco failed to encourage investors.

Secondly there may still be some potholes in the recovery
road. Taiwan Semiconductor reported a revenue decline due to
seasonal inventory adjustments by its customers. Not a big
deal but any decline in revenue is cause for concern by
investors today. NVDA warned that sales for the next quarter
would be less than expected and gross margins were shrinking.
NVDA is a big customer of TSM and that drove TSM even lower.
UMC reported a 40% drop in earnings for the 2Q and said it
expects 3Q shipments to drop 10%. These concerns drove the
SOX to an -11.84 loss for the day and a four-week low. The
SOX is still very extended from its 260 low in February and
a +57% gain to the July high of 408. It is already -10% off
its high with support in the 360 range.

SOX Chart - Daily


Also discouraging is the Russell-2000, which has dropped -28
points from its July highs and is still some distance from
support at 440. The Russell is the best indicator of fund
direction. When conditions are seen to be improving funds
venture away from large cap safety and into the small cap
market where the really large gains can be made if they pick
a winner. If they see weakness ahead they abandon the small
caps and run back to big cap liquidity and perceived safety.
This week we saw small caps and techs drop and the Dow rise
as money flowed back into the safety of cyclical big caps.

Russell-2000 Chart - Daily


Cluttering the field of vision is the global outlook. Italy
announced it was in recession for the first time in eleven
years on Friday. Not that Italy is a huge world economy but
it is another domino in the economic chain. According to the
chip companies Asia has not recovered completely from SARS
yet. Oil prices continue to hover at $32 a barrel with no
relief in sight. No earthshaking problems but still smoke on
the horizon.

Next week we have to deal with a Fed meeting on Tuesday. We
are expecting nothing out of the Fed meeting except a rewording
of the last policy statement which was a rewording of the last
statement before that. The Fed funds futures are showing a
zero chance of a rate cut. There is a good possibility retail
traders will still buy the rumor in hopes of a surprise. The
Fed has repeatedly said they are very accommodative and do
not think another cut is needed. The wild card here is the
bond yields. Greenspan has got to be wringing his hands over
the spike in rates just when he was promising to keep rates
low for the duration of his term. He has to weigh the potential
risk to the stock market with the need to do/say something to
scare the bond market. Should they decide to say something
deflationary (sorry, unwelcome disinflation) they could knock
bond yields back into June but it could create a stock market
panic. Now, do they want to risk the market falling under the
weight of rising yields along with the economy OR give bonds
a swift kick and then prop up the market with some fedspeak
the following week? The multitude of possibilities is dizzying.

Next week starts out slow economically with nothing on Monday
and only the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. The rest of the week is
packed full of reports but after the Fed statement they may
not matter. You do not want to hear this but with earnings
over gentlemen prefer bonds. I know, it is a corny line but
it is the truth. They will watch the bonds more than the
economics next week. Conservative pension funds typically
switch from stocks to bonds when the yields reach 4.50%. We
saw some of those asset allocation programs early this week.
We closed on Friday at 4.28% and not very far away from the
magic number. We also have $60 billion in new supply on bond
dealers books and they will be trying to dump that off to the
end buyers. This will also depress cash flow available for
stocks.

Last Sunday I mentioned the potential for a roller coaster
ride and this week certainly followed through on that
prediction. The high for the week was 9209 and the low 8997
with plenty of spikes and dips in the middle. The coming week
should not change. I expect more of the same as we continue
to test the highs and the lows of our trading range. We have
been locked in the 9000-9300 range since July 1st and have
resisted all attempts to trade lower despite historical
precedent. The longer we stay in this range the better the
chance of a very strong and lasting move when we break out.
Unfortunately that break could go either way. If the economics
continue to line up positively then the longer we stay in this
area the better chance of an upside break. The Dow closed
right in the middle of the range on Friday and is in neutral
territory. The Nasdaq, Russell and SOX are not so safe and
could test their support levels early next week. With INTC,
MSFT, ORCL, DELL, QCOM and SUNW all threatening to break
support I would say it was a safe bet but Fed meetings have
a funny way of impacting the market. Check out the declining
new highs and increasing new lows in the statistics header of
this commentary. Keep those seatbelts fastened, this roller
coaster has plenty of ride left.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bearish)
=========================

Sharper Image - SHRP - close: 24.65 change: -1.12 stop: 18.79

Company Description:
Sharper Image is a specialty retailer that is nationally and
internationally renowned as a leading source of new, innovative,
high-quality products that make life better and more enjoyable.
A significant and growing proportion of sales are of proprietary
products created by the Company's product development group,
Sharper Image Design.  The Company operates over 130 stores
throughout the United States, mails millions of its award-winning
catalogs each month and advertises through other direct response
media including television.  The Company's products may also be
purchased on the Internet via its online store at
sharperimage.com.  The Company also has an online auction site
where consumers can place bids to win Sharper Image products at
lower prices; the auction site is accessed from the home page of
the Company's Web site.  The Company also markets its products
through business-to-business sales for corporate marketing
programs and wholesale customers.  (Source:  Company Press
Release.)

Why We Like It:
We're basing this play on technical considerations seen in SHRP's
chart.  Friday, SHRP broke through the neckline of a clean and
well-formed head-and-shoulders formation.  Along the way, it also
broke through support at 25.75 and 25.00, falling 4.35 percent on
almost double daily average volume.  Meanwhile, the $RLX gained
1.52 percent.

The target of the H&S formation projects down just below SHRP's
200-dma at $20.68, but we'll be targeting $21.00, just above that
level.  That H&S neckline gives us a well-defined stop to watch,
too, and we're setting our stop at $26.75, a point above the
neckline.  Entries can be made at the current level or on a
rollover anywhere beneath $25.00.

What happened to SHRP?  We're not sure.  Thursday, SHRP announced
an 11 percent increase in July in same-store sales.  Total sales
rose 20 percent from the year-ago period.  Internet sales jumped
60 percent.  The company said it still expected Q2 earnings to be
at 2 to 3 cents per share, and the CEO characterized this
statement as "confirming our increased guidance."  The CEO
mentioned the great momentum.

Is there something disturbing buried in this report?  Is it that
June same-store sales climbed 15 percent and total company sales
increased 28 percent, greater than July's numbers?  SHRP's July
same-store sales certainly increased more than those of most
other retailers we checked, with the exception of CHS, with that
company's same-store sales increasing 15.7 percent.  SHRP is on a
P&F buy signal, but has reversed into an "O" column and is in
danger of giving a high-pole warning if it drops too much
further.

This stock looks primed to fall, but it needs to do so quickly.
The company will announce earnings August 21, and we'll be
closing the play ahead of that earnings announcement.

Annotated Chart for SHRP:


Picked on Aug 10 at  24.65
Change since picked: -0.00
Earnings Date:    07/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  260 thousand




================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Breaking Ranks
Jonathan Levinson

Given the exciting intermarket action this past week, I've been
looking forward to reviewing the weekly closing candle charts to
see how our recent trends have progressed.  There are some
surprises on the weekly charts.

For most of 2003, we have seen treasuries and equities trading
together on what I have interpreted to be a generalized rising
tide of liquidity.  This "hot money" was chasing stocks, bonds,
gold and other currencies, and the US Dollar Index was the most
bearish chart of the bunch.

Last week, we observed that treasuries had been sinking for
several weeks, and equities were weakening but relatively
stronger.  We saw that trend reverse this week, as treasuries
began rallying on Wednesday with the 5-year note auction, and
continued through to Friday.  On the ten-year note yield, we had
a bearish harami, printing an inside week within last week's
bullish candle and breaking the rising bullish trendline on the
TNX daily chart.   This is bullish for bonds.  Meanwhile, the
Nasdaq was the weakest of the equity indices, printing the second
of two black crows on a break below its ascending trendline for
the first time since the spring rally began.  The Dow and S&P
came close to printing the second of two black crows, but the
declines were less extended and the end-of-Friday buying pushed
the candle formation closer to a more bullish dragonfly doji
star.

The US Dollar Index printed a bearish harami cross, and
conversely gold gave us a bullish harami, with a positive inside
week following last week's bearish engulfing candle on the
December gold contract.  This is not as decisive a pattern as the
two black crows on the Nasdaq, and the US Dollar Index could well
resume its uptrend next week.  Nevertheless, this week was
negative for the US Dollar Index.

We are therefore left with the US Dollar Index bearish for the
week, gold bullish, equities bearish, led by the Nasdaq to the
downside, and bonds bullish.  The picture is one of liquidity
beginning to contract, with traders moving to the "quality" of
bonds and gold.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9361
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9191

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9166
 50-dma: 9121
200-dma: 8547

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1015
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  977

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  981
 50-dma:  987
200-dma:  912

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1207

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1249
 50-dma: 1240
200-dma: 1095


-----------------------------------------------------------------

We're still seeing some odd action in the volatility indices.
Normally, as the markets slip the VIX and VXN rise.  The S&P 100,
which the VIX is based on (actually on the option premiums for
the OEX), did bounce the last couple of sessions.  So the drop
in the VIX is no surprise.  However, the NDX has been slipping
lower so why is the VXN moving in concert with it?

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 21.29 -0.60
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) = 32.02 -2.00


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.81        522,821       422,526
Equity Only    0.63        386,796       243,811
OEX            1.01         23,861        24,096
QQQ            0.83         36,418        30,237


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          67.9    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    64.0    - 2     BEAR CONFIRMED
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       73.4    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       80.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.13
10-Day Arms Index  1.09
21-Day Arms Index  1.01
55-Day Arms Index  1.09


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1742      1437
Decliners    1056      1540

New Highs      68        92
New Lows       28        11

Up Volume    817M      516M
Down Vol.    429M      786M

Total Vol.  1288M     1327M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/05/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercial traders appear to be pruning some long positions and
moving that money to the short side.  As expected we see just
the opposite from the small trader.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/15/03      414,020   453,033   (39,013)   (4.5%)
07/22/03      411,206   442,131   (30,925)   (3.6%)
07/29/03      405,429   445,114   (39,685)   (4.7%)
08/05/03      395,633   450,988   (55,353)   (6.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/15/03      148,716    70,279    78,437    35.8%
07/22/03      155,891    76,466    79,425    34.2%
07/29/03      155,216    73,030    82,186    36.0%
08/05/03      159,971    72,951    87,020    37.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The bulls in the commercial group continue to add to their
positions here but we did see an increase in short positions
as well.  This is the most bullish the commercials have been
in quite some time.  Meanwhile the large spread between longs
and shorts for the small traders narrowed a bit.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/15/03      214,274   218,765    ( 4,491)  ( 1.0%)
07/22/03      249,392   249,386          6     0.0%
07/29/03      272,659   216,166     56,493    11.6%
08/05/03      310,662   249,004     61,658    11.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   61,658   - 08/05/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/15/03       45,372    54,654    (9,282)   (9.3%)
07/22/03       45,945    76,071   (30,126)  (24.7%)
07/29/03       44,437    93,144   (48,707)  (35.4%)
08/05/03       56,663    95,919   (39,256)  (25.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (48,707)  - 07/29/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

"Smart" money didn't do much last week as positions remain
relatively the same but we saw some small traders eliminate
a few long positions in the NDX.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/15/03       28,467     49,154   (20,687) (26.7%)
07/22/03       32,502     48,139   (15,637) (19.4%)
07/29/03       31,456     50,294   (18,838) (23.0%)
08/05/03       32,813     52,383   (19,570) (23.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,687)  - 07/15/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/15/03       26,489     8,004    18,485    53.6%
07/22/03       27,321     8,844    18,477    51.1%
07/29/03       25,691     7,810    17,881    53.4%
08/05/03       22,188     7,783    14,405    48.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

More shades of limbo here as well with the commercials
not making any new commitments and the small traders
holding steady going on a month now.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/15/03       21,607     7,855   13,752      46.7%
07/22/03       22,198     8,176   14,022      46.2%
07/29/03       23,696     9,572   14,124      42.5%
08/05/03       23,981     9,264   14,717      44.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/15/03        5,475     9,717   (4,242)   (27.9%)
07/22/03        6,110    10,898   (4,788)   (28.2%)
07/29/03        5,744    11,601   (5,857)   (33.8%)
08/05/03        5,716    10,422   (4,706)   (29.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-10-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:       NVLS

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:       HELE, HOTT
  New Bearish Plays:       SHRP
  Bullish Play Updates:    NEM
  Bearish Play Updates:    FDP, JPM, DAL, GPT

High Risk/Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:    SOHU

Stock Split Announcements: POOL, APPX


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Novellus Systems - NVLS - close: 33.32 change: -1.93 stop: 36.25

Company Description:
Providing equipment for advanced Semiconductor manufacturing,
NVLS focuses on advanced, high-productivity thin film deposition
systems and surface preparation systems used in the fabrication
of integrated circuits.  Utilizing Chemical Vapor Deposition
(CVD), Physical Vapor Deposition, electroplating, photoresist
strip and residue removal systems, the company's products provide
high film quality while attaining the high levels of productivity
required to meet the semiconductor industry's need for high-
volume, low-cost wafer production.

Why we like it:
Ever since bottoming out in early February, the Semiconductor
index (SOX.X) has been marching higher in an orderly ascending
channel.  But the past few weeks have seen the index spending too
much time near the bottom of its channel for bulls to have been
comfortable, and it hasn't been able to even get back into the
top of the channel as the $400 level provided formidable
resistance.  The payoff for bearish traders came over the past
couple days, as Thursday saw the first close below the channel
bottom ($384) since February and that breakdown continued on
Friday with the SOX losing an additional 3% and it looks like the
breakdown has begun in earnest.  This negative sector action
certainly took its toll on shares of NVLS, which finally
succeeded in breaking the horizontal support ($34.50) that had
been supporting the stock for the past several weeks.  The stock
appears to have finally failed at the 50-dma ($36.50), with the
last bullish attempt turned back just as the 20-dma ($36.17)
crossed down through the 50-dma.

When NVLS traded $35, that was a PnF Sell signal and Friday's
trade at $34 extended the column of O's, removing the possibility
of a bear trap and giving a bearish price target of $27.  It is
unlikely that we'll see a drop straight to that level with the
bullish support line resting at $29, but a decline down near $30
certainly looks feasible.  The ideal entry would come on a failed
rebound below the $35.50 level, but there sure isn't anything
wrong with taking a momentum entry on a break below $33.15, just
below Friday's intraday low.  The first level of support likely
to be encountered is the 200-dma ($31.55), but we've really got
our eye on the ascending trendline from the October lows, which
currently crosses at $30.00 and is sure to create at least a
near-term bounce.  We're setting our stop initially at $36.25
(just above the 20-dma), but that should really only apply to
traders that wait for a failed rebound to enter the play.  Those
that are chasing the stock lower should use a tighter stop,
perhaps at $35.00.  If entering on a continued breakdown, make
sure to confirm the SOX is continuing to lose strength as well.

Annotated Chart of NVLS:


Picked on August 10th at  $33.32
Change since picked        +0.00
Earnings Date           10/20/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  8.91 mln



==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 21.03 change: +1.42 stop: 18.79

Company Description:
Helen of Troy Limited is a leading designer, producer and
marketer of brand name personal care consumer products.  The
Company's products include hair dryers, curling irons, hair
setters, women's shavers, brushes, combs, hair accessories, home
hair clippers, mirrors, foot baths, body massagers, paraffin
baths, liquid hair styling products, body powder and skin care
products.  The Company's products are sold by mass merchandisers,
drug chains, warehouse clubs and grocery stores under licensed
trade names.  The company also markets hair and beauty care
products under [various] trademarks to the professional beauty
industry. (Source: Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
HELE's chart shows many characteristics we like.  After
announcing earnings July 9, HELE gapped up above previous
resistance, climbing to a then four-year high.  Earnings of 50
cents per share far exceeded expectations of 24 to 25 cents per
share.  Rising sales and the settlement of litigation in June led
to the higher-than-expected earnings.  In addition, the company
announced a share buyback program and raised full-year profit
projections.

After gapping above $17.00 that day, HELE consolidated for
several weeks, and then broke out above next resistance at $20.00
on Friday.  Strong volume accompanied that breakout.  MACD turned
up again in the middle of a down phase and other oscillators
turned up, too.

That four-weeks-long consolidation means that the broken
resistance between $19.75-20.00 should now serve as strong
support.  We note that the 21-dma rises into the consolidation
band and provided the springboard for HELE's rise on Friday.
That 7.24 percent rise trumped that of the RLX's 1.52 percent
climb as well as Procter and Gamble's 1.00 percent rise.

We like almost everything we see on this chart.  The three-point
range in which HELE traded for a month predicts a minimal $3.00
rise from its breakout point, so we're setting a first target of
$23.00.  The stock is on P&F ascending triple top breakout buy
signal.

As much as we like what we see on this chart, we wouldn't be
surprised to see HELE pull back early next week after Friday's
big percentage gain.  Entries can be made at current levels or on
a pullback and bounce from anywhere above $20.00.

Annotated Chart for HELE:


Picked on Aug 10 at  21.03
Change since picked: -0.00
Earnings Date:    07/09/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  432 thousand




----


Hot Topic, Inc. - HOTT - close: 30.16 change: +0.93 stop: 28.39

Company Description:
Hot Topic, Inc. is a national mall-based specialty retailer of
music-licensed and music-influenced apparel, accessories and gift
items for young men and women principally between the ages of 12
and 22.  Torrid, the Company's second concept, is a mall-based
specialty retailer of plus-size fashion-forward apparel and
accessories that targets young women principally between the ages
of 15 and 29.  The Company currently operates 457 Hot Topic
stores in 49 states and Puerto Rico, 40 Torrid stores and
Internet stores www.hottopic.com and www.torrid.com.  (Source:
Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
Hot Topic is a hot stock and it shows.  Wednesday, HOTT raised
its Q2 earnings forecast, saying July same-store sales had been
strong.  Thursday, First Albany raised HOTT to a buy rating,
citing unnamed catalysts that it expects to give the stock "a new
leg."  Competitor AEOS received the cold shoulder from
Prudential, with a downgrade to a hold rating from a buy rating.

HOTT's volume increased both Thursday and Friday as HOTT sprang
from its 50-dma and pushed above its 21-dma and recent
resistance, closing at an all-time high.  MACD and other
oscillators turned up along with the price.

The stock has maintained an ascending channel since March.  The
best entry might be on a pullback to the midline of the
regression channel.  Since March, HOTT has a habit of springing
up strongly, easing back to support, and then climbing along the
top of its regression channel.  Support on any such pullback
might coincide with the support offered at the top of a double-
bottom pattern seen on the chart.

HOTT's so hot that it might not pull back, however.  The break
through to an all-time closing high and above round-number
resistance at $30.00 might bring on momentum players, sending the
stock up higher in an old-fashioned earnings run into its August
20 earnings.  A momentum entry at current levels might be the
only opportunity provided for new entries.  No matter what the
entry provided, however, this play needs to work fast as we'll be
closing it ahead of earnings on the 20th.

Annotated Chart for HOTT:


Picked on Aug 10 at  30.16
Change since picked: -0.00
Earnings Date:    08/20/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  448 thousand




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Sharper Image - SHRP - close: 24.65 change: -1.12 stop: 18.79

Company Description:
Sharper Image is a specialty retailer that is nationally and
internationally renowned as a leading source of new, innovative,
high-quality products that make life better and more enjoyable.
A significant and growing proportion of sales are of proprietary
products created by the Company's product development group,
Sharper Image Design.  The Company operates over 130 stores
throughout the United States, mails millions of its award-winning
catalogs each month and advertises through other direct response
media including television.  The Company's products may also be
purchased on the Internet via its online store at
sharperimage.com.  The Company also has an online auction site
where consumers can place bids to win Sharper Image products at
lower prices; the auction site is accessed from the home page of
the Company's Web site.  The Company also markets its products
through business-to-business sales for corporate marketing
programs and wholesale customers.  (Source:  Company Press
Release.)

Why We Like It:
We're basing this play on technical considerations seen in SHRP's
chart.  Friday, SHRP broke through the neckline of a clean and
well-formed head-and-shoulders formation.  Along the way, it also
broke through support at 25.75 and 25.00, falling 4.35 percent on
almost double daily average volume.  Meanwhile, the $RLX gained
1.52 percent.

The target of the H&S formation projects down just below SHRP's
200-dma at $20.68, but we'll be targeting $21.00, just above that
level.  That H&S neckline gives us a well-defined stop to watch,
too, and we're setting our stop at $26.75, a point above the
neckline.  Entries can be made at the current level or on a
rollover anywhere beneath $25.00.

What happened to SHRP?  We're not sure.  Thursday, SHRP announced
an 11 percent increase in July in same-store sales.  Total sales
rose 20 percent from the year-ago period.  Internet sales jumped
60 percent.  The company said it still expected Q2 earnings to be
at 2 to 3 cents per share, and the CEO characterized this
statement as "confirming our increased guidance."  The CEO
mentioned the great momentum.

Is there something disturbing buried in this report?  Is it that
June same-store sales climbed 15 percent and total company sales
increased 28 percent, greater than July's numbers?  SHRP's July
same-store sales certainly increased more than those of most
other retailers we checked, with the exception of CHS, with that
company's same-store sales increasing 15.7 percent.  SHRP is on a
P&F buy signal, but has reversed into an "O" column and is in
danger of giving a high-pole warning if it drops too much
further.

This stock looks primed to fall, but it needs to do so quickly.
The company will announce earnings August 21, and we'll be
closing the play ahead of that earnings announcement.

Annotated Chart for SHRP:


Picked on Aug 10 at  24.65
Change since picked: -0.00
Earnings Date:    07/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  260 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Newmont Mining - NEM - cls: 38.33 chng: +1.38 stop: 36.25*new*

We could almost sense the pressure building for a breakout from
the 2-week continuation coil that NEM had been building since
late July.  The first hints that the breakout was drawing near
was the stock's ability to probe the $37 level on Wednesday and
Thursday.  Part of the stock's strength may have come from
comments the company's president, who predicted a gold price of
$450 over the next 12 months and reiterated the company's non-
hedging stance.  Whatever the cause, NEM broke out with
conviction on Friday, gapping above $37 and surging higher on
strong volume throughout the day, ending at the daily high and a
new 5-year high.  From the beginning, we've been targeting a move
to $39, as $39-40 would be the measured target after the breakout
from the bull flag consolidation.  We aren't recommending new
positions at this point, and would instead suggest it is time to
firm up your exit strategy.  Once NEM trades above $39, we'll be
exiting the play and harvesting our gains.  Note that we've
raised our stop to $36.25, which is just below the 20-dma
($36.28) as well as a level of support that shouldn't be tested
until reaching the resistance zone we're targeting.

Picked on July 23rd at   $35.28
Change since picked       +3.05
Earnings Date            7/31/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  4.52 mln




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Fresh Del Monte Prod. - FDP - cls: 26.03 chng: +0.12 stop: 27.50

Apparently, we set our trigger in just the right place on our FDP
play, as the past two days have seen the stock bounce from
$25.80, exactly the 7/21 intraday low we mentioned on Wednesday.
The 50-dma ($25.85) was also tested the past two days and so far
it has held.  But once FDP breaks below $25.75, it should
generate some decent followthrough, with our initial $24 target
being achieved in short order.  Wait for the $25.70 trigger to be
hit and then enter on the breakdown.  More conservative traders
may want to wait for a subsequent failed bounce in the $26.00-
26.50 area to take an entry.  Keep stops set at $27.50.

Picked on August 6th at  $26.20
Change since picked       -0.17
Earnings Date          10/28/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    545 K




---


J.P. Morgan Chase - JPM - cls: 32.99 chng: +0.14 stop: 34.75*new*

Although it cooperated for us quite nicely last week in breaking
below the $33 level and giving us a confirmed H&S breakdown, JPM
has been rather stingy about delivering any further downside
action.  Early in the week, the stock rebounded from support just
above $32 and has spent the past few sessions trading in a tight
band of consolidation.  That's alright though, as the stock seems
to be finding resistance well below $33.50 and with the 10-dma
($33.95) falling to meet price action, the bulls will have to put
up or shut up next week.  We had noted the possibility for
support near the $32 level so the anemic rebound from that area
is no great surprise.  Look for a rollover below the 10-dma as
one possible entry point, with momentum traders getting their
wish with a break below $32.40 (Monday's intraday low).  With the
20-dma now at $34.75 and threatening to break under the 50-dma,
it should be safe to remove some risk from the play, lowering our
stop to $34.75.

Picked on July 30th at   $33.36
Change since picked       -0.37
Earnings Date           10/15/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  9.68 mln




---


Delta - DAL - close: 10.77 change: +0.23 stop: 12.01

Thursday, Goldman Sachs raised estimates on airline stocks AMR
and CAL, saying the firm expected 2003 losses to be narrower than
previously anticipated, but we couldn't find any mention of DAL.
Perhaps DAL piggybacked on the gains of its competitors, however,
as all three airlines gained in late-week trading.  DAL's 2.18
percent gain trailed that of ARM, CAL, and the XAL, the airline
index.

If Goldman Sachs neglected to mention DAL, THE WALL STREET
JOURNAL did not.  Friday's editions focused on three DAL
executives who have left or are about to leave, taking their
bankruptcy-proof pensions with them.  The article mentions that
most analysts consider DAL's employee-pension obligations
underfunded.

We were surprised that the airlines weren't impacted by
statistics showing that jet fuel spot prices rose 9.4 percent
week-over-week in New York, an increase of 24 percent from last
year's prices.  Ticket prices rose, too, however, perhaps
offsetting the higher fuel costs.

It's possible that DAL's price will also rise into early next
week, testing the former support offered at the bottom of the
previous week's consolidation band.  DAL's 200-dma flattens, also
offering resistance, and the 21-dma curves down to a level just
above our 12.01 stop.  We think that 21-dma should roll down to
meet the 200-dma at 11.76 by the time DAL could rise that far,
linking the resistance of the two moving averages.

Those seeking new entries could enter on a rollover anywhere
under $11.25.  Aggressive traders seeking a momentum entry could
enter on a drop through $10.00, but that entry would not offer
optimum risk/reward as our target lies at $9.00, at the bottom of
the rising regression channel from DAL's weekly chart.

Annotated Chart for DAL:


Picked on July 30 at 11.15
Change since picked: -0.38
Earnings Date:    07/17/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.3 million




---


Greenpoint Fin. - GPT - close: 50.61 change: +0.73 stop: 51.01

This week's rebound in mortgage loan applications, reported by
the Mortgage Bankers Association, played havoc with a play setup
that appeared close to perfect.  Instead of breaking down out of
its consolidation pattern, GPT headed up to test resistance.

GPT broke through two levels of resistance: the supposed H&S
neckline and psychological resistance at $50.00.  While that's
discouraging, we also see historical resistance at GPT's current
level and layered above it, too.  Nearby resistance comes from a
descending trendline that has been checking GPT's movements since
the middle of July, horizontal resistance at $50.65, and the
resistance from the 21- and 50-dma's, now at $51.39 but turning
down to meet GPT as it rises.

RSI broke through its pattern of lower highs, but the stochastics
have not yet done so.  MACD remains below zero.  It's possible
that GPT may test resistance or consolidate the early part of
next week, but prices should find it difficult to drive much
higher.  We have our stop in place in case they do.  We would not
suggest new entries while RSI trends higher.

Annotated Chart for GPT:


Picked on August 3 at 49.37
Change since picked:  +1.24
Earnings Date:     07/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   581 thousand




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

SOHU.com - SOHU - close: 30.46 change: +1.01 stop: 34.30 *new*

We weren't the only ones to notice how much the Internet-related
ADR's had climbed over the last year.  Friday, Reuters featured
an article about SOHU, SINA, and NTES, mentioning their
phenomenal gains.  The article cited triple-digit growth in
online advertising and mobile text messaging as drivers of the
stock prices.

We wish they hadn't noticed these companies or those gains that
we think might be a bit too bubble-like.  All three tacked on
major gains Friday, with SOHU's 3.43 percent gains the smallest
percentage gains of the three.  Other Internet-related ADR's not
mentioned in the article also gained, however, with IIJI,
Internet Initiative Japan, tacking on a whopping 15.69 percent.
All had been beaten down last week and were perhaps due for
bounces.  SOHU, SINA, and NTES gained on much bigger-than-average
volume, however, not something we want to see.

Before adding those gains, SOHU dove down to $26.93, within $0.43
of our $26.50 target.  We expect that this stock has attracted a
lot of shorts as it moved from $4.00 to more than $40.00 in less
than a year, and we suspect that some shorts saw an opportunity
to cover at lower prices on Friday, leading to the spike in
prices.  We hope some of our own readers took the opportunity to
reap some of those profits.

We think SOHU will drop again.  Prices have plummeted more than
$10.00 since July highs and it was time for a bounce.  In
addition, the violated ascending trendline has not yet been
retested, and we think a retest was due.  That support near
$26.50 was a likely place for the bounce to occur, and the reason
behind our choice of that level as our target.  Studying the
chart, we still see bearish divergence on the oscillators and
several layers of resistance that converge near $34.30.

We also think it possible that $34.00 level will be retested.
Play participants who do not want to weather a retest of overhead
resistance with almost $2.00/share in unrealized gains might
elect to book those profits.

The chart appears to show a budding head-and-shoulder formation,
and if that formation is valid, a test of shoulder-level next
resistance may be in order.  The oscillators do not yet predict
even enough strength to test that resistance.  MACD appears
bearish.  Stochastics give a bullish kiss, but have not yet
curved up out of territory indicating oversold conditions.
Traders seeking a new entry could target a rollover anywhere
under $34.00, the right-shoulder level of a possible head-and-
shoulder formation.

Annotated Chart for SOHU:


Picked on August 6 at 32.27
Change since picked:  -1.81
Earnings Date:     07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   4.6 million





=================================================================
Stock Split Announcements
=================================================================

POOL dives into a 3-for-2 stock split

Before today's opening bell, SCP Pool Corporation's (NASDAQ:POOL)
Board of Directors declared a 3-for-2 stock split of its common
shares.  The stock split will take the form of a 50% stock
dividend.

The stock dividend will be payable to September 12th, 2003 to
shareholders on record as of August 22nd.  This will increase the
POOL's common shares to approximately 35.25 million.

This is the POOL's first stock split since 2001.

About the company:
SCP Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor
of swimming pool supplies and related products. Currently, SCP
operates 192 service centers in North America and Europe, through
which it distributes more than 60,000 national brand and private
label products to approximately 45,000 customers. For more
information about SCP, please visit www.scppool.com.
 (Source: Company Press Release)

---

APPX injects a 3-for-2 stock split in the form of dividend

Before the opening bell, American Pharmaceutical Partners, Inc.'s
(NASDAQ:APPX) Board of Directors approved a 3-for-2 stock split
of its common shares.  The stock split will take the form of a
stock dividend.

The stock dividend will be payable to September 2nd, 2003 to
shareholders on record as of August 18th.  Fractional Shares will
be paid in cash. This will increase the APPX's common shares to
approximately 69.5 million.

This is APPX's first stock split since being listed in 2003

About the company:
American Pharmaceutical Partners, Inc. is a specialty drug
company that develops, manufactures and markets injectable
pharmaceutical products, focusing on the oncology, anti-infective
and critical care markets. The company is one of the largest
producers of injectables, with more than 130 generic products in
more than 350 dosages and formulations. APP has acquired the
exclusive North American rights to manufacture and market ABI-
007, a proprietary nanoparticle injectable oncology product that
has completed Phase III clinical trials for metastatic breast
cancer and for which the FDA has granted "Fast Track"
designation. The NDA submission has commenced and it is
anticipated that the entire submission will be completed in 2003.
The company believes that it has established the only commercial
scale protein-engineered nanoparticle manufacturing capability in
the United States. For more information, visit APP's website at
www.appdrugs.com .
(Source: Company Press Release)



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-10-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 11th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of August 11th
==========================================


------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

CFFN   Capitol Federal Finl  Mon, Aug 11  -----N/A----        0.16
CPG    Chelsea Property Grp  Mon, Aug 11  After the Bell      0.81
DADE   Dade Behring          Mon, Aug 11  After the Bell      0.26
DQE    DQE                   Mon, Aug 11  After the Bell      0.23
JHX    James Hardie Ind      Mon, Aug 11  -----N/A----         N/A
OSIP   OSI Pharmaceuticals   Mon, Aug 11  After the Bell     -0.98
PSUN   Pac Sunwear CaliforniaMon, Aug 11  After the Bell      0.24
PRGO   Perrigo               Mon, Aug 11  Before the Bell     0.05
PBR    Petrobras             Mon, Aug 11  -----N/A----        1.34
PUB    PUBLICIS Groupe SA    Mon, Aug 11  Before the Bell      N/A
LQU    Quilmes Industrial    Mon, Aug 11  After the Bell       N/A
SYY    SYSCO Corporation     Mon, Aug 11  Before the Bell     0.35
VAL    Valspar               Mon, Aug 11  -----N/A----        0.76
WRI    Weingarten Rlty Inv   Mon, Aug 11  -----N/A----        0.85


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ANF    Abercrombie & Fitch   Tue, Aug 12  After the Bell      0.33
ANPI   Angiotech Pharm       Tue, Aug 12  After the Bell     -0.20
AMAT   Applied Materials     Tue, Aug 12  After the Bell      0.04
AXA    AXA                   Tue, Aug 12  01:30 am ET          N/A
BSY    Brit Sky Broadcasting Tue, Aug 12  05:00 am ET          N/A
CLX    Clorox                Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.68
CSC    Computer Sciences CorpTue, Aug 12  -----N/A----        0.51
DE     Deere & Company       Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.83
ESPD   eSpeed, Inc.          Tue, Aug 12  After the Bell      0.14
FOSL   Fossil, Inc.          Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.20
JCP    JC Penney             Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell    -0.05
LZB    La-Z-Boy Inc.         Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.18
MVL    Marvel Enterprises    Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.31
MXIM   Maxim Integrated Prod Tue, Aug 12  After the Bell      0.24
MDT    Medtronic Inc.        Tue, Aug 12  -----N/A----        0.37
OMX    Officemax             Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell    -0.13
PTP    Plat Underwriters HoldTue, Aug 12  After the Bell      0.33
REG    REGENCY CTRS CORP     Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.69
RRI    Reliant Resources     Tue, Aug 12  -----N/A----        0.19
TECH   Techne                Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.30
IPG    The Interpublic Grp CoTue, Aug 12  After the Bell      0.15
MAY    May Department Stores Tue, Aug 12  -----N/A----        0.27
TJX    The TJX Companies Inc Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.23
WGR    Western Gas Resources Tue, Aug 12  Before the Bell     0.53
WMB    Williams Companies    Tue, Aug 12  -----N/A----       -0.03


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ANN    AnnTaylor Stores      Wed, Aug 13  After the Bell      0.40
ATO    Atmos Energy Corp     Wed, Aug 13  After the Bell      0.00
BRCD   Brocade Comm Sys Inc. Wed, Aug 13  After the Bell      0.01
CAI    CACI International    Wed, Aug 13  After the Bell      0.41
RIO    Comp Vale Rio Doce    Wed, Aug 13  -----N/A----        1.45
DISH   EchoStar Comm Corp.   Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell     0.19
EP     El Paso Corp.         Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell     0.13
EQR    Equity Residential    Wed, Aug 13  -----N/A----        0.56
FD     Federated Department  Wed, Aug 13  -----N/A----        0.54
FOX    Fox Entertainment Grp Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell     0.24
HMY    Harmony Gold Mining   Wed, Aug 13  02:00 am ET         0.09
MLS    Mills Corporation     Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell     0.82
NTLI   NTL INC               Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell      N/A
QTRN   Quintiles Transnatl   Wed, Aug 13  -----N/A----        0.14
NWS    The News Corporation  Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell     0.16
TIF    Tiffany & Co.         Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell     0.24
UBS    UBS                   Wed, Aug 13  01:00 am ET          N/A
WMT    Wal-Mart Stores Inc.  Wed, Aug 13  Before the Bell     0.50


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AZ     Allianz AG            Thu, Aug 14  -----N/A----         N/A
AEOS   American Eagle Outfit Thu, Aug 14  Before the Bell     0.11
AMLN   Amylin PharmaceuticalsThu, Aug 14  Before the Bell    -0.36
ADI    Analog Devices Inc.   Thu, Aug 14  After the Bell      0.21
BEAS   BEA Systems           Thu, Aug 14  After the Bell      0.07
BE     BearingPoint, Inc.    Thu, Aug 14  Before the Bell     0.15
BRP    Brasil Telecom Partic Thu, Aug 14  -----N/A----        0.49
CXR    COX RADIO INC         Thu, Aug 14  Before the Bell     0.17
DELL   Dell, Inc.            Thu, Aug 14  After the Bell      0.24
DT     Deutsche Telekom      Thu, Aug 14  02:00 am ET          N/A
EON    E.ON AG               Thu, Aug 14  Before the Bell      N/A
GMST   Gemstar-TV Guide Int  Thu, Aug 14  After the Bell     -0.05
ING    ING Groupe NV         Thu, Aug 14  06:00 am ET          N/A
KSS    Kohl's                Thu, Aug 14  4:00 pm ET          0.31
L      Liberty Media Group   Thu, Aug 14  After the Bell       N/A
MTA    Matav                 Thu, Aug 14  -----N/A----         N/A
TGT    Target Corporation    Thu, Aug 14  Before the Bell     0.40
EL     The Estie Lauder Co   Thu, Aug 14  Before the Bell     0.26
TKC    Turkcell Iletsim      Thu, Aug 14  -----N/A----         N/A
UBB    Unibanco - S.A.       Thu, Aug 14  -----N/A----        0.62
UCOMA  UnitedGlobalCom, Inc. Thu, Aug 14  -----N/A----         N/A


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

CEP    Centerpulse AG        Fri, Aug 15  Before the Bell      N/A
NAV    Navistar Intl         Fri, Aug 15  Before the Bell     0.25


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

RARE    Rare Hospitality          3:2      Aug  11th   Aug  12th
ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare        3:2      Aug  12th   Aug  13th
OSK     Oshkosh Truck             2:1      Aug  13th   Aug  14th
REBC    Redwood Empire            3:2      Aug  13th   Aug  14th
SCHN    Schnitzer Steel           2:1      Aug  14th   Aug  15th
RNT     Aaron Rents               3:2      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
ARRO    Arrow Intl                2:1      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
JEF     Jeffries Group            2:1      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
GPT     GreenPoint Financial Corp 3:2      Aug  20th   Aug  21st
TSCO    Tractor Supply Company    2:1      Aug  21st   Aug  22nd
TTI     Tetra Technologies Inc    3:2      Aug  21st   Aug  22nd
CECO    Career Education Corp     2:1      Aug  22nd   Aug  25th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Earnings continue to dwindle, and most of the major market movers have
already announced.  Economic reports will likely overshadow earnings
this week as we have a full house of economic reports with Retail
Sales, CPI, PPI, Production and Utilization, and Michigan Sentiment.
However, the major meeting this week will be the FOMC meeting on
Tuesday.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 08/11/03
----------------
None


----------------
Tuesday, 08/12/03
----------------
FOMC Meeting  (DM)


-------------------
Wednesday, 08/13/03
-------------------
Business Inventories(BB)Jun  Forecast:  -0.10%  Previous:   -0.20%
Retail Sales (BB)       Jul  Forecast:   0.80%  Previous:    0.50%
Retail Sales ex-auto(BB)Jul  Forecast:   0.50%  Previous:    0.70%
Export Prices ex-ag.(BB)Jul  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:   -0.10%
Import Prices ex-oil(BB)Jul  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:    0.50%


------------------
Thursday, 08/14/03
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   08/09  Forecast:    395K  Previous:     390K
Trade Balance (BB)      Jun  Forecast: -$41.5B  Previous:  -$41.8B
PPI (BB)                Jul  Forecast:   0.20%  Previous:    0.50%
Core PPI (BB)           Jul  Forecast:   0.00%  Previous:   -0.10%
FOMC Minutes (DM)


----------------
Friday, 08/15/03
----------------
NY Emp State Index (BB) Aug  Forecast:    20.5  Previous:     22.6
CPI (BB)                Jul  Forecast:   0.20%  Previous:    0.20%
Core CPI (BB)           Jul  Forecast:   0.10%  Previous:    0.00%
Indl Production (BB)    Jul  Forecast:   0.20%  Previous:    0.10%
Capacity Utilization(BB)Jul  Forecast:  74.40%  Previous:   74.30%
Mich Sentiment-Prel.(DM)Aug  Forecast:    91.0  Previous:     90.9


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available




======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ECA     EncanaCorp                 37.12     +0.73
ITU     Banco Itau Sa (ADR)        36.05     +1.01
AZO     Autozone                   82.91     +2.28
ASD     American Standard Cos      77.18     +0.75
FNF     Fidelity National          29.10     +0.64
BDK     Black & Decker             40.20     +0.96

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

RSCR    Res-Care Inc                6.22     +1.40

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

MCD     McDonalds Corp             23.89     +1.83
BBY     Best Buy Co                47.90     +1.41
DE      Deere & Co                 51.18     +1.38
AU      Anglogold Ltd              35.34     +1.74
URBN    Urban Outfitters           43.44     +2.17
HELE    Helen of Troy              21.03     +1.42
UFPI    Universal Forest Products  23.50     +1.04
ASA     ASA Ltd                    41.74     +1.03
PDII    PDI Inc                    24.25     +2.67
TASR    Taser Intl                 20.47     +1.82

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SNDK    SanDisk Corp               47.90     -3.92
CEPH    Cephalon Inc               43.68     -2.38
SHRP    Sharper Image              24.65     -1.12
BDG     Bandag Inc                 33.12     -1.07

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

DIGE    Digene Corp                30.74     -2.16



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