PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 08-12-2003 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Ok, Now What? Watch List: TGT, NTAP, PDLI, MNST and more! Market Sentiment: Volume patterns ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 08-12-2003 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 8310.06 + 92.70 9310.27 9208.80 1.36 bln 2211/ 996 NASDAQ 1687.01 + 25.50 1687.48 1660.66 1.30 bln 2162/1028 S&P 100 499.74 + 4.62 499.76 494.45 Totals 4373/2024 S&P 500 990.35 + 9.76 990.41 979.90 W5000 9530.43 + 99.10 9530.72 9431.38 RUS 2000 466.95 + 7.68 466.95 459.27 DJ TRANS 2607.47 + 21.70 2607.51 2583.89 VIX 20.21 - 1.21 21.60 20.19 VXN 30.21 - 1.91 32.90 29.89 Total Volume 2,863M Total UpVol 2,242M Total DnVol 573M 52wk Highs 309 52wk Lows 41 TRIN 0.86 NAZTRIN 0.72 PUT/CALL 0.77 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Ok, Now What? The long awaited FOMC meeting is history and the outcome was no surprise to anyone. The Dow rocketed to close over 9300 and the Nasdaq is nearing 1700 once again. What is wrong with this picture? Conviction, total lack of conviction and growing disbelief that the economics will hold. Bears and bulls alike are scratching their heads as the indexes move up but the confirming volume is continuing to shrink. Today was the second lowest volume day, behind Monday as first, since May with less than three billion shares for the third consecutive day. Dow Chart Nasdaq Compx Chart S&P Chart Wilshire-5000 Chart Two economic reports today were far from positive for the bulls. The Chain Store Sales rose only +0.1% from the prior week despite sales tax holidays in six states and the second wave of tax credit checks. Back to school sales are reportedly off to a strong start but with only a +0.1% gain in sales it would appear anemic. Even more troublesome was the Richmond Fed manufacturing Survey which came in at -7 for July. This was a substantial weakening of the conditions and every component lost ground. New Orders fell to -13 from zero, Shipments fell to -7 from +1. Order Backlog fell to -17 from -15 and the six-month outlook fell to 28 from 41. There was nothing positive in this release and after two months of improvement it appears the trend has reversed. The survey showed four consecutive months of retraction which ended in June with a barely positive +1 for the headline number. The drop back into negative territory was the worst showing in three months. Expected shipments fell to the lowest level since October-2001. This report was in sharp contrast to the national ISM survey announced last week, which showed an improvement in conditions. If the Richmond Fed Survey is a leading indicator for the August ISM then we could be in trouble. Note how the Richmond Fed has performed in relation to the ISM over the last seven months. It actually was more positive in the June period but we see significant divergence in July. One problem with the ISM bounce was the 44% increase from defense spending which inflated the ISM. Without those defense numbers the ISM may have been much closer to negative. More analysts are beginning to worry that the bounce in the July numbers across the board were a reaction to the temporary post war economic bounce. If that bounce fails to grow legs soon the fall economic recovery could evaporate once again. After the close today there were some more discouraging signs that all is not improving as much as traders had hoped. AMAT announced earnings that beat the street after one time items but then guided analysts lower for the coming quarter. New orders fell -41% from the year ago quarter but +9% above the 2Q. The company said the semiconductor sector appeared to have bottomed after a three year spending drought but then guided analysts that revenue would be flat to only slightly up for the next quarter. They estimate earnings of 4-5 cents when analysts consensus was six cents. The CEO said expectations were high that users would upgrade to the new 12 inch wafer products but he said that bookings were less than expectations. AMAT said it appeared capex spending would be flat to only slightly improved over 2002 levels. AMAT fell in after hours trading. Also reporting after the bell was MXIM, which reported inline with estimates said bookings for next quarter only rose +2% and were less than analysts had expected. CSC also reported inline with estimates but said the harsh climate has resulted in a slow-down in corporate spending but government contracts had held up well. They currently have $38 billion in federal contracts in the pipeline. They guided inline with estimates but some analysts said the slow down in non-government orders was a concern. The biggest news of the day was the FOMC meeting and the monetary policy announcement. The results were as expected with no rate change and with the Fed even going so far as to say the current rate environment could be maintained for a considerable period. This comment was an attempt by the Fed to calm the bond market and slow the current explosion in rates. This does not mean those rates will return to prior lows but there should be a return to normalcy. Coupled with the implied promise not to raise rates was another warning that deflation, or "the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low" as stated in the announcement, was still a threat. They said that "an unwelcome fall in inflation" was greater than the risk of rising inflation. On the positive side they said underlying growth in productivity was continuing to support economic activity (same sentence in June announcement) and spending was firming. The Fed did everything they could to say positive things while keeping irrational exuberance in check. If they were too bullish then the bond junkies would start dumping bonds and pushing up rates. If they were too bearish stocks would tank and damage the recovery sentiment. The markets celebrated the Fed action but not immediately. Nearly 30 minutes passed after the announcement before a flurry of buy programs at Dow 9200 support pushed the averages to the highs for the day. Once the buy programs ended the markets bled points for about 30 minutes until a market on close order imbalance prompted another buying surge. Shorts faced with indexes pressing the highs for the day, week and month decided to surrender and bought the close. The Dow closed over 9300 and the highest close in over a month. Only -50 points from the 52-week high it was very encouraging to traders. While the close was impressive the week is far from over. The economic calendar is chock full of large reports over the next three days and this is a triple digit expiration week. We have PPI, CPI and sentiment along with numerous other reports. The earnings expectations are very high and as we saw from AMAT, MXIM and CSC tonight the future is not that rosy. Above all the Fed announcement was already priced in and the market reaction surprised most professional traders. Tuesday was the fifth consecutive gain for the Dow and a +310 point gain off last weeks lows. Also confounding the bears is the calendar. August is historically the worst month for the major averages and especially when there have been big gains. Instead of weakness we are seeing new 52-week highs beginning to grow and the volatility indicators falling. The VIX closed at 20.21 and only .58 away from a new 52-week low. That is only .28 away from the July 28th low of 19.93 and the beginning of the two week Dow decline. Note the market reaction in the charts below when the VIX neared 20 in recent weeks. It is not always immediate but it will happen. VIX/Dow Chart You be the judge. We had a nice rally and a nice bout of normal profit taking. Was it enough? There are still very large paper profits still on the books. With the Fed on hold until after the Nov-2004 elections and economics that suggest the bottom is behind us, is the future so bright we need to wear shades? Nobody can tell the future in advance but it appears there continues to be a bullish undertone in the markets. Bulls are buying the dips and climbing the wall of worry so fast they look like candidates for the Olympic pole vault. Last week we had serious sell programs hit on every good piece of economic news. Today we had buy programs control the outcome. What gives? There is only one thing ruining this picture. Without this one piece of data all the gains over the last five days are seriously at risk. That piece of data is volume. We had the three lowest volume days in months beginning last Friday. Volume has been declining since last Thursday's 3.98 billion. Friday 2.9B, Monday 2.68B and Tuesday 2.8B. Three consecutive days under 3.0 billion shares traded on all markets. When volume returns we are going to get some huge moves. The problem is which side is going to find the conviction first? Were the bulls waiting for the Fed meeting to validate their assumptions so they could add to positions? If so then the upside volume should increase substantially on Wednesday. Were the bulls waiting for the Fed and hoping to get one more injection of speed to inflate their parachutes as they sell to the retail traders venturing back into the market? Maybe the bears were waiting for the Fed meeting to avoid any nasty surprises before piling on for the slide into October. Nobody knows in advance but they will know when the next big volume surge hits stocks. Tomorrow, Friday or next week is the question. We are at levels where the bulls have failed on high volume several times before. They will have to enlist help to climb from here. There is plenty of help out there but it needs to be convinced to buy at the top. Everybody know what normally happens in September/October and until they can be convinced the Halloween party has been cancelled they may elect to watch from the sidelines. Either way the next week could be exciting. Watch the volume for direction. Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively! Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Target Corp. - TGT - close: 40.00 change: +0.85 WHAT TO WATCH: With Retail stocks breaking out all over and the Retail index (RLX.X) vaulting to a new 52-week high, bullish momentum is with the group. Shares of TGT haven't been slacking off either, breaking out to fresh 52-week highs on Tuesday. Further strength above today's intraday high looks good to run towards strong resistance in the $44-45 area. --- Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 16.97 change: +1.25 WHAT TO WATCH: No stranger to our bullish playlists, NTAP is looking strong again after the bulls defended strong support near $15 and sent the stock soaring for a nearly 8% gain on Tuesday. A bit of profit-taking could ensue before the stock continues higher, so buying a pullback near $16 looks like a winning strategy ahead of a continuation up to test resistance near $18 and then possibly $19.50. --- Protein Design Labs - PDLI - close: 14.34 change: +1.73 WHAT TO WATCH: A 13% gain in one day? That looks like too big a move to chase, but given the volume (nearly triple the ADV) on Tuesday, this could be the beginning of something really big. News that the company might be close to agreeing on licensing and royalty terms on asthma treatment Xolair seemed to be the catalyst behind today's move. We'd feel better about entries on a pullback near the 20-dma, but clearly this is a stock to watch. --- Monster Worldwide - MNST - close: 24.03 change: +2.08 WHAT TO WATCH: Is the job market improving? Not appreciably according to the government reports, but MNST investors say otherwise, as they have gone on a buying spree the past couple days, solidifying the stock's rebound from its ascending trendline just below $21. With volume on the rise, look for the stock to retest its recent highs in the $27-28 area in short order. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== MME $49.89 - We talked about MME on the way down and sure enough the stock found support just above $45. But the bounce appears to be losing momentum. Give it a couple more days to move into strong resistance near $52-53, and we should have a nice short play made to order. ESE $42.50 - Look out below! Shares of ESE got slammed lower on Tuesday in response to the company's earnings report, as investors ran for the exits. Should the $42 support level give way, it could be a quick trip to the 200-dma just below $38. IR $55.49 - Another breakout in the making, shares of IR look primed for an explosive move higher, especially after surging to close a penny below the 7/22 intraday high. A break above $55.50 will have the stock in fresh multi-year high territory and should have the next solid level of resistance ($60) coming into play. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Jonathan Levinson Today saw impressive upside fireworks from the bulls following the requisite post-FOMC uncertainty. The indices, which had traded sideways until 2:15, dipped and then launched nearly vertical rallies. A brief pause and pullback was followed by a second vertical move into the close. The Dow is now up 5 sessions in a row, and the chart appears very bullish. However, volume is falling off on a daily basis, with today's volume the lowest of the current rally. The reason for today's drop in volume, FOMC uncertainty, is reassuring to bulls because of its non-recurrence for many weeks to come. However, the net effect is the same, namely a lack of strength at current levels. Traders pay close attention to "gaps" in the price charts, because gaps have a tendency to fill. The reason is that a gap involves a sudden move in which volume is so low that no trades execute as price lurches to its new level. The implication is that should price return to the gap level, there are no buyers or sellers committed to the level in advance, and price has a tendency to fill the gap. Low volume sessions are a step closer to gaps, in that support is relatively weak on low volume upside days, just as resistance is weak on low volume downside days. Bulls will want to see plenty more buyers committing to current levels in order to reinforce today's gains. However, the tendency of volume to drop on each successive upside day for the past week demonstrates a lack of enthusiasm at higher prices, and implies that the current up-move is corrective. If volume does not accelerate with an upward movement in price, the current gains will remain dubious. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 9361 52-week Low : 7197 Current : 9310 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9171 50-dma: 9136 200-dma: 8556 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1015 52-week Low : 768 Current : 990 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 979 50-dma: 988 200-dma: 913 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1316 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1240 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1240 50-dma: 1241 200-dma: 1097 ----------------------------------------------------------------- As would be expected the volatility indices or "fear" indices have fallen the last several sessions just as the $INDU, SPX and OEX have rallied the last four-to-five sessions. Climbing equity prices means investors have less and less fear which makes them complacent and vulnerable to the next move, which is typically lower. The VIX is back at 20 again. It is the "magic" level, which should flash a big bright warning sign to traders: potential market top in the making! CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.21 –1.21 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) = 30.21 –1.91 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.77 614,537 470,794 Equity Only 0.50 443,018 221,049 OEX 1.26 31,363 39,433 QQQ 0.71 25,820 18,419 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 68.2 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 64.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 80.0 + 0 Bull Correction S&P 500 74.0 + 0 Bull Correction S&P 100 80.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 0.85 10-Day Arms Index 1.04 21-Day Arms Index 1.00 55-Day Arms Index 1.10 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2008 2096 Decliners 803 965 New Highs 113 108 New Lows 11 9 Up Volume 1009M 1099M Down Vol. 321M 205M Total Vol. 1346M 1321M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/05/03 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders appear to be pruning some long positions and moving that money to the short side. As expected we see just the opposite from the small trader. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 07/15/03 414,020 453,033 (39,013) (4.5%) 07/22/03 411,206 442,131 (30,925) (3.6%) 07/29/03 405,429 445,114 (39,685) (4.7%) 08/05/03 395,633 450,988 (55,353) (6.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 18,486 - 6/17/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/15/03 148,716 70,279 78,437 35.8% 07/22/03 155,891 76,466 79,425 34.2% 07/29/03 155,216 73,030 82,186 36.0% 08/05/03 159,971 72,951 87,020 37.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 The bulls in the commercial group continue to add to their positions here but we did see an increase in short positions as well. This is the most bullish the commercials have been in quite some time. Meanwhile the large spread between longs and shorts for the small traders narrowed a bit. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 07/15/03 214,274 218,765 ( 4,491) ( 1.0%) 07/22/03 249,392 249,386 6 0.0% 07/29/03 272,659 216,166 56,493 11.6% 08/05/03 310,662 249,004 61,658 11.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 61,658 - 08/05/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/15/03 45,372 54,654 (9,282) (9.3%) 07/22/03 45,945 76,071 (30,126) (24.7%) 07/29/03 44,437 93,144 (48,707) (35.4%) 08/05/03 56,663 95,919 (39,256) (25.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (48,707) - 07/29/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 "Smart" money didn't do much last week as positions remain relatively the same but we saw some small traders eliminate a few long positions in the NDX. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 07/15/03 28,467 49,154 (20,687) (26.7%) 07/22/03 32,502 48,139 (15,637) (19.4%) 07/29/03 31,456 50,294 (18,838) (23.0%) 08/05/03 32,813 52,383 (19,570) (23.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (20,687) - 07/15/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/15/03 26,489 8,004 18,485 53.6% 07/22/03 27,321 8,844 18,477 51.1% 07/29/03 25,691 7,810 17,881 53.4% 08/05/03 22,188 7,783 14,405 48.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL More shades of limbo here as well with the commercials not making any new commitments and the small traders holding steady going on a month now. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 07/15/03 21,607 7,855 13,752 46.7% 07/22/03 22,198 8,176 14,022 46.2% 07/29/03 23,696 9,572 14,124 42.5% 08/05/03 23,981 9,264 14,717 44.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/15/03 5,475 9,717 (4,242) (27.9%) 07/22/03 6,110 10,898 (4,788) (28.2%) 07/29/03 5,744 11,601 (5,857) (33.8%) 08/05/03 5,716 10,422 (4,706) (29.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 08-12-2003 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Play of the Day: Resurgent Retail Stop Loss Updates: HELE, HOTT Split Announcements: HOTT Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Play-of-the-Day ( Bullish ) =============== Hot Topic, Inc. - HOTT - cls: 30.72 chng: +0.38 stop: 28.65*new* Company Description: Hot Topic, Inc. is a national mall-based specialty retailer of music-licensed and music-influenced apparel, accessories and gift items for young men and women principally between the ages of 12 and 22. Torrid, the Company's second concept, is a mall-based specialty retailer of plus-size fashion-forward apparel and accessories that targets young women principally between the ages of 15 and 29. The Company currently operates 457 Hot Topic stores in 49 states and Puerto Rico, 40 Torrid stores and Internet stores www.hottopic.com and www.torid.com. (Source: Company Press Release) Why we like it: Hot Topic is a hot stock and it shows. Wednesday, HOTT raised its Q2 earnings forecast, saying July same-store sales had been strong. Thursday, First Albany raised HOTT to a buy rating, citing unnamed catalysts that it expects to give the stock "a new leg." Competitor AEOS received the cold shoulder from Prudential, with a downgrade to a hold rating from a buy rating. HOTT's volume increased both Thursday and Friday as HOTT sprang from its 50-dma and pushed above its 21-dma and recent resistance, closing at an all-time high. MACD and other oscillators turned up along with the price. The stock has maintained an ascending channel since March. The best entry might be on a pullback to the midline of the regression channel. Since March, HOTT has a habit of springing up strongly, easing back to support, and then climbing along the top of its regression channel. Support on any such pullback might coincide with the support offered at the top of a double- bottom pattern seen on the chart. HOTT's so hot that it might not pull back, however. The break through to an all-time closing high and above round-number resistance at $30.00 might bring on momentum players, sending the stock up higher in an old-fashioned earnings run into its August 20 earnings. A momentum entry at current levels might be the only opportunity provided for new entries. No matter what the entry provided, however, this play needs to work fast as we'll be closing it ahead of earnings on the 20th. Why This is our Play of the Day Following on the heels of last week's upbeat Retail sales numbers, the Retail index (RLX.X) has been surging strongly for the past 5 sessions and staged a major breakout to new 52-week highs at $348 today. Today's 1.8% gain helped to rekindle the fire in HOTT, which recovered from an early dip near $29.50 to close at $30.72, also a new 52-week high. It would have been nice to see stronger volume on the breakout, but what can you expect from an FOMC meeting day in August? Dips into the $29.50- 30.00 area still look favorable for entry, as does a breakout above today's $30.76 high. Just keep in mind that the fuse is short on the play, as the company is due to release earnings next Wednesday, so when the fire begins to die out, the best course of action will likely be to harvest gains and move on. Raise stops just slightly to $28.65, just below the 20-dma ($28.67). Annotated Chart of HOTT: Picked on Aug 10 at 30.16 Change since picked: -0.00 Earnings Date: 08/20/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 605 K ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= Bullish ------------ HELE – Raise from $18.79 up to $19.05 HOTT – Raise from $28.39 up to $28.65 ================================================================= Stock Split Announcements ================================================================= HOTT retails a 3-for-2 stock split After today's closing bell, Hot Topic Inc's (NASDAQ:HOTT) Board of Directors declared a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares. The stock dividend will be payable to September 2nd, 2003 to shareholders on record as of August 21st. Fractional shares will be paid in cash. This will increase HOTT’s shares to approximately 47.5 million. This is the HOTT’s first stock split since the first quarter of 2002. It's last few splits were 3:2 in February 2002, a 2:1 in December 2000 and a 2:1 in December 1999. About the company: Hot Topic, Inc. is a national mall-based specialty retailer of music-licensed and music-influenced apparel, accessories and gift items for young men and women principally between the ages of 12 and 22. Torrid, the Company's second concept, is a mall-based specialty retailer of plus-size fashion-forward apparel and accessories that targets young women principally between the ages of 15 and 29. The Company currently operates 459 Hot Topic stores in 49 states and Puerto Rico, 41 Torrid stores and Internet stores www.hottopic.com and www.torrid.com. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CHA China Telecom 26.95 +0.51 FPL FPL Group Inc 62.36 +0.67 COF Capital One Financial Corp 50.49 +2.40 SOTR SouthTrust Corp 28.87 +0.66 IR Ingersoll-Rand Limited 55.49 +1.71 CSC Computer Sciences Corp 43.62 +0.93 EOG EOG Resources Inc 41.74 +0.98 SCG Scana Corp 33.90 +0.75 BBI Blockbuster Inc 18.70 +0.70 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- NTAP Network Appliance Inc 16.97 +1.25 PDLI Protein Design Labs 14.34 +1.73 EAGL Eagle Inc. 17.75 +1.46 LCAV LCA-Vision New 15.10 +2.12 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- TJX TJX Companies Inc 21.05 +1.13 DE Deere & Co 53.51 +2.53 MNST Monster Worldwide Inc 24.03 +2.08 APPX Amer Pharmaceutical Ptnr 44.91 +1.18 RMD Resmed Inc 43.60 +2.10 GPN Global Permits Inc 35.96 +2.11 WGR Western Gas Resources 39.95 +2.52 MVL Marvel Enterprises Inc 21.50 +2.85 FOSL Fossil Inc 27.80 +1.63 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AIV Apartment Invest & Mgmt 37.62 -1.03 ZRAN Zoran Corp 22.86 -1.05 ESE Esco Technologies 42.50 -2.00 PGTV Pegasus Communications 22.05 -1.05 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- None ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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