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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 08/17/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-17-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Breakout Coming?
Play-of-the-Day:  Rolling, Rolling, Rolling
Market Sentiment: No Fear

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 8-15         WE 8-08         WE 8-01         WE 7-25
DOW     9321.69 +130.60 9191.09 + 37.12 9153.97 -130.60 + 96.42
Nasdaq  1702.01 + 57.98 1644.03 - 71.59 1715.62 - 15.08 + 22.20
S&P-100  498.30 +  4.50  493.80 +  0.16  493.64 -  9.30 +  1.44
S&P-500  990.67 + 13.08  977.59 -  2.56  980.15 - 18.53 +  5.36
W5000   9547.51 +154.78 9392.73 - 61.43 9454.16 -145.20 + 52.70
RUT      471.92 + 17.98  453.94 - 14.14  468.08 -  0.80 +  4.12
TRAN    2623.66 + 44.63 2579.03 - 16.88 2595.91 - 19.88 + 39.50
VIX       20.20 -  1.09   21.29 -  1.49   22.78 +  2.84 -  1.42
VXN       29.21 -  2.82   32.03 -  0.45   32.48 +  2.44 -  3.37
TRIN       1.01            0.87            1.08            0.67
Put/Call   0.53            0.81            0.91            0.67
Avg Highs   338             189             462             365
Avg Lows     62              86              72              31
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================


Breakout Coming?
by Jim Brown

Despite the extremely low volume of only 1.5 billion shares
across all markets the Dow ended within two points of a new
52-week closing high. The previous high was 9323 on June-17th
and that level could be history if the current trend continues
on Monday. Could this be the breakout the bulls are waiting for?

The Dow has traded over 9300 on eight days since the 9323 close
nearly two months ago. It has moved up, down and sideways for
much of those two months but is finally showing an increasing
amount of resilience. Considering all the negative factors we
have seen this week this is an amazing feat. Current support
has risen to 9285 and short of a strong shift in sentiment we
could see a breakout next week. That will not be an easy task
and the deck is still stacked against it but the bulls appear
to have mastered the art of climbing the wall of worry. They
will have to pass their greatest test next week.

Friday had limited economic hurdles for the market with the
biggest challenge just getting open and staying open. The CPI
came in at +0.2% as expected with the core rate +0.2% also.
The energy component rose +0.4% and helped hold the index up.
Medical care also rose +0.5% and continued its +3.8% gain over
the last 12 months. Core inflation has held to +1.5% for the
last four months and suggests both deflation and inflation
risks have stabilized.

Helping encourage investors was a jump in Industrial Production
of +0.5% and well over estimates of +0.1%. All major components
reported increases but with Capacity Utilization at 74.5 it was
only .2 above the 20-year lows we have seen over the prior two
months. This was good news but not as good as most traders
hoped. The whisper number was 75.0 and we did not come close.
This suggests the economy is continuing to improve but at a
snails pace that may not create a 4Q recovery. The factor which
will help the most is the low inventory levels which will mean
a strong ramp in production should any real demand appear.

Going against the positive CPI and Industrial Production
numbers was the NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The
headline number fell to only 10 from 20.8 in July and 27.6
in June. This plummeting indicator was ignored by the markets
with the power problems taking the headlines. New Orders fell
to 12.5 from 15.1 but the employment component rose to zero
from -9.5. The six-month outlook rose to 59.5 from 51.8. We
could be seeing some summer decline but the improving jobs
and outlook components could be signs of a rebound for the
Fall.

Unfortunately the next Empire Survey will likely show the
impact of the blackout and could easily drop into negative
territory. This could also happen with the NY NAPM. Just
when we were beginning to get clean data we will now have
to wait for two more months for these reports to rebound
from what could be a serious dip. Even if the reports were
going to be negative for the current month they will be
ignored as "blackout" reports. This will also be seen in
the Jobs Report for August as this was the survey week.
Jobless Claims will be impacted for next Thursday and any
low number will be ignored.

The Michigan Sentiment report was rescheduled for Tuesday
from Friday as a result of the blackout. Now, the question
here is will the numbers be as of Thursday or as of Monday?
Obviously any survey taken over the weekend would show a
dramatic drop in sentiment and even if Tuesday's numbers
are tame the revision in two weeks will be negative.

One positive result of the blackout was the flight to quality
and into bonds. Yields fell back below the 52-week highs from
Thursday but still remained at extreme levels. The 10-year
closed at 4.528 after reaching a low of 4.484 intraday. Once
the power problems are over and that should be before Monday,
we could see the bond flight return. According to the bond
junkies the 10/30 year instruments saw their worst week in
recent history with the yields on the 10-year jumping from
the prior Friday's lows of 4.19% to Thursday's high of 4.668%.
That spread is nearly unheard of in the bond markets in a
single week. However, contrary to the market reaction when
yields soared to their previous high on August 1st the Dow
closed back at its highs and has apparently shaken off the
bond fears.

The most amazing component of the recent market has been the
performance of the Russell-2000. Since the 450 low on August
7th it has been moving vertically until it hit the downtrend
resistance on Friday. Considering the light volume we cannot
make any specific analysis from the halt at resistance but
this index bears watching for next week. If it can break out
of the three year down trend then we could be off to the races.
I mentioned the Russell last Sunday when it was at 453 and at
the bottom of the initial August dip. I cautioned that should
450 fail we could test real support at 440. The instant rebound
from 450 was encouraging and showed that funds were putting
money back into small caps and the bond fears were easing.

Russell-2000 Chart



Almost as impressive as the Russell but on a different scale is
the Dow which has completely reversed from the test of 9000 on
August 6th. The Dow has recovered to close within two points of
a new closing high and has done so under difficult circumstances.
For the last two days Dow 9285 has held like a rock and could
be providing a spring board for next week. Still we could just
as easily slip back into out two month trading range.

Dow Chart


The Nasdaq is showing the least amount of excitement of the
major indexes. The Nasdaq closed right on 1700 for the second
consecutive day and it appears the bounce from the August lows
could be running out of steam. The Nasdaq is about 30 points
below its downtrend resistance if you include the artificial
spike on July-31st. If you factor that out then 1705 is the
current resistance and that is where we stopped on Friday. The
Dell earnings did little to excite tech buyers but then they
had much more on their minds on Friday. Dell did close up +95
cents on the news. Dell was the only major Nasdaq tech component
in the green.

Nasdaq Chart


Also showing more weakness than the Dow is the S&P, which has
been moving down in an orderly fashion from its June highs.
The S&P has resistance at 992.50 and then again at 1000. The
broader market is showing less resilience than the narrow Dow.
The Dow has been buoyed by strong gains in MMM, UTX, WMT, MCD,
AA and T. The composition of the Dow makes it more responsive
to cyclical strengths and that is what we are seeing now.

S&P Chart - daily


There was not much happening on Friday other than the endless
news stories on the blackout and economic factors for next week
are slim. That makes this commentary brief today. There are not
many ways to say we are at strong resistance on the Dow and
very close to a breakout but other indexes are not confirming.
With only 562 million shares trading on the NYSE and 704 million
on the Nasdaq you cannot draw any real conclusions from Friday's
trading.

Next week is very slim economically with reports on Housing
Starts and the rescheduled Michigan Sentiment not until Tuesday.
Wednesday is blank and Thursday only has Jobless, Philly Fed
and Leading Indicators. Friday is also blank and that allows
the markets to wander on their own for most of the week.
Without being too repetitive we are at resistance and poised
to either break out or down very easily. The Dow could actually
move to a new high without the Nasdaq and S&P following and
that would set up some even stronger divergence than we saw
last week.

We have the perfect storm setting up. The blackout should be
history by Monday. The buying in bonds on Friday as a flight to
quality could see a reversal on Monday once the power problem
is resolved. Traders not able to make it in on Friday should
be back at work. There are no economic reports to confuse the
issue. Options have expired with little market reaction and the
residue of position squaring should provide enough volatility
at the open to show where true resistance and support levels
are hiding. The numbers at Friday's close are bogus due to the
extremely low volume. There is a strong feeling among traders
that we will see a big move next week. The only question is
which way?

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bearish)
=========================

The Healthcare Company - HCA - cls: 36.64 chng: -0.16 stop: 38.05

Company Description:
HCA owns and operates approximately 200 hospitals and other
healthcare facilities in 24 states, England and Switzerland. [The
company is] dedicated to providing healthcare services that meet
each community's local healthcare needs. [The company seeks] to
integrate various services to deliver patient care with maximum
quality and efficiency. [Their] approach includes focusing on
quality; streamlining operations; sharing technology, equipment
and personnel where appropriate; and using economies of scale
when contracting for medical supplies and administrative
services. (Source:  Company Website)

Why We Like It:
Description of HCA tag it the No. 1 U.S. hospital chain, and as
befits the first place winner in any category, it's been
gathering some attention over the last week.  Late last week,
Merrill Lynch raised its rating on HCA to "buy" from "neutral."
Early this week, Bank of America raised its price target to
$40.00 from $35.00.  Buried under those releases, however, is a
sell rating issued by Fulcrum Global Partners, whose analyst
labeled as irrational the gains made after the company warned in
mid July.  When HCA released earnings a week later, they also
announced plans to cut back capital spending in 2004 and sell
$500 million in 10-year notes.  The Board of Directors threw in a
quarterly dividend, however.

We agree with the Fulcrum Global Partners analyst who thought
investors were missing the point.  She spoke of the gains made on
the day of the warning, but we took a look at the gains since the
middle of July, when those developments first surfaced.  We note
that those gains butted HCA against the top of a regression
channel and underneath the 200-dma.  Now HCA appears to be
rolling down beneath both, and we think it's headed back into the
gap support near $33.50.

While the 10-, 21-, and 50-dma's all slant up in bullish fashion,
the 200-dma dives down to meet HCA at its current level and has
not yet flattened.  RSI turns down.  Volume did not pick up as
HCA rose.  HCA also currently trades in the $37-38 resistance
zone from its weekly chart.  While we don't think HCA will
crater, we do think it may be due for a pullback to the ascending
trendline that's been forming since April.  With the 200-dma at
$37.52, we're placing our stop at $38.05.

Annotated Chart for HCA:


Picked on Aug 15 at  36.64
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  4.3 million




================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================


No Fear
Jonathan Levinson

For the week, bonds moved lower, while the dollar and gold moved
higher, and the equities indices all posted gains.  The Dow and
S&P 500 both printed bullish morning start candle formations,
while the Nasdaq printed an upside inside week, known in
candlestick terms as a bullish harami.

The bear market in volatility continued, with QQV, VIX and VXN
all closing near their year lows.  The picture was no doubt
distorted by triple-witching Friday, but equities remain in a
significantly low volatility environment.  The put to call ratio
on Friday was very low, again subject to options expiration
doubts, but the combination of weekly gains in the equity indices
and low volatility and put to call readings should give bulls
pause.  Markets do not tend to go up significantly when everyone
is bullish.

Bonds sold off, driving yields to new yearly highs.  On the
theory that the spring rally was liquidity-driven, the erosion of
liquidity from the bond market is another cause for concern for
equity markets, as they may well be next in line.  If, however,
the money freed up by sales of treasuries seeks a new target,
equities could be biding their time before the next leg up in
this year's rally.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9361
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9321

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9203
 50-dma: 9154
200-dma: 8570

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1015
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  990

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  980
 50-dma:  989
200-dma:  915

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1253

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1234
 50-dma: 1243
200-dma: 1101


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX and VXN dropped fractionally as equities rose
fractionally.  The VIX remains close to its  widely regarded 20
level, and with the VXN below 30, equities continue to appear
toppy.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.20 –0.31
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 29.21 –0.06


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.53        891,171       471,754
Equity Only    0.43        767,588       329,007
OEX            1.16         31,536        36,593
QQQ            1.01         70,301        70,997


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          68.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    65.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       74.6    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       82.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.87
10-Day Arms Index  1.00
21-Day Arms Index  0.98
55-Day Arms Index  1.10


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1505      1423
Decliners    1197      1423

New Highs     194       203
New Lows       28        11

Up Volume    391M      286M
Down Vol.    327M      384M

Total Vol.   733M      690M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/12/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials added slightly to their long positions in the S&P,
whilesmall traders maintained their positions, adding a net 761
contracts for the week.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/22/03      411,206   442,131   (30,925)   (3.6%)
07/29/03      405,429   445,114   (39,685)   (4.7%)
08/05/03      395,633   450,988   (55,353)   (6.5%)
08/12/03      399,414   456,767   (57,353)   (6.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/03      155,891    76,466    79,425    34.2%
07/29/03      155,216    73,030    82,186    36.0%
08/05/03      159,971    72,951    87,020    37.4%
08/12/03      158,821    71,040    87,781    38.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials added heavily to their long positions in the e-mini,
posting their most bullish reading of the year, while small
traders added further to their short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/22/03      249,392   249,386          6     0.0%
07/29/03      272,659   216,166     56,493    11.6%
08/05/03      310,662   249,004     61,658    11.0%
08/12/03      306,014   217,233     88,781    17.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   88,781   - 08/12/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/03       45,945    76,071   (30,126)  (24.7%)
07/29/03       44,437    93,144   (48,707)  (35.4%)
08/05/03       56,663    95,919   (39,256)  (25.7%)
08/12/03       62,534   106,403   (43,869)  (26.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (48,707)  - 07/29/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercials and small traders moved in the same direction on the
NDX, as commercials lightened up slightly on their short
positions, while small traders added to their longs.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/03       32,502     48,139   (15,637) (19.4%)
07/29/03       31,456     50,294   (18,838) (23.0%)
08/05/03       32,813     52,383   (19,570) (23.0%)
08/12/03       34,374     53,015   (18,641) (21.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,687)  - 07/15/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/03       27,321     8,844    18,477    51.1%
07/29/03       25,691     7,810    17,881    53.4%
08/05/03       22,188     7,783    14,405    48.1%
08/12/03       23,957     7,871    16,086    50.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials added slightly to their long positions on the Dow, but
the move was sufficient to post a new bullish high for the year,
close to reaching the October 2001 high of 15,135 contracts.
Small traders added more substantially to their shorts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/03       22,198     8,176   14,022      46.2%
07/29/03       23,696     9,572   14,124      42.5%
08/05/03       23,981     9,264   14,717      44.3%
08/12/03       24,942     9,878   15,064      43.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/22/03        6,110    10,898   (4,788)   (28.2%)
07/29/03        5,744    11,601   (5,857)   (33.8%)
08/05/03        5,716    10,422   (4,706)   (29.2%)
08/12/03        6,933    13,248   (6,315)   (31.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-17-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:    IRF
  Bearish Play Updates:    NVLS

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bearish Plays:       HCA
  Bullish Play Updates:    HELE, HOTT, NEM
  Bearish Play Updates:    DAL, SHRP, JPM

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:       AGIX
  Bullish Play Updates:    LSI
  Bearish Play Updates:    SOHU


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Int'l Rectifier - IRF - cls: 33.84 chng: +0.38 stop: 31.00*new*

It certainly wasn't a day to write home about with the major
exchanges seeing by far their lightest volume of the year, but
our bullish Chip play inched its way higher by a bit over 1% and
is sneaking up on the $34 level.  At the same time, the
Semiconductor index (SOX.X), while near unchanged for the day,
appears once again to be setting up for a serious assault on
major resistance in the $400-410 area.  The top of the ascending
channel for IRF is now at $34.50, so either there will be a
strong push higher next week to break out of the top of the
channel, or we'll see a mild pullback to consolidate, while
allowing the top of the channel to move higher and allow for more
room to the upside.  While we'd prefer the former outcome, the
latter is more likely, with the SOX likely to be rejected at
least one more time from that strong resistance zone.  This close
to the top of the channel, we want to shy away from momentum
entries and will instead recommend looking for pullbacks near the
$32 area (the center of the channel) for new entries.  Note that
our stop moves up to $31 this weekend, near the top of the most
recent consolidation and well below the 10-dma ($31.71).

Picked on August 13th at  $32.99
Change since picked        +0.85
Earnings Date           10/30/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     889 K



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Novellus Systems - NVLS - close: 35.72 change: +0.12 stop: 36.25

Friday's light volume session did nothing to shed any light on
whether the Semiconductor sector (SOX.X) is going to break out or
roll over from the formidable $400-410 resistance area yet again.
So lackluster was the action that the SOX ended the day less than
a point from where it began.  Our NVLS play once attain
challenged resistance at $36 and our $36.25 stop, but they both
managed to hold, at least for one more day.  As noted in the
Wednesday update, we're losing confidence in this play, with the
reversal of the prior week's breakdown, but since both the stock
and the sector are still pinned under resistance, we're going to
give it some more time to work.  While aggressive entries near
current levels might provide a truly attractive risk reward
ratio, we'd prefer to wait for a drop back under $35 before
committing fresh capital.  Wait for the weakness in NVLS and look
for confirming weakness from the SOX.

Picked on August 10th at  $33.32
Change since picked        +2.40
Earnings Date           10/20/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  8.88 mln





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

The Healthcare Company - HCA - cls: 36.64 chng: -0.16 stop: 38.05

Company Description:
HCA owns and operates approximately 200 hospitals and other
healthcare facilities in 24 states, England and Switzerland. [The
company is] dedicated to providing healthcare services that meet
each community's local healthcare needs. [The company seeks] to
integrate various services to deliver patient care with maximum
quality and efficiency. [Their] approach includes focusing on
quality; streamlining operations; sharing technology, equipment
and personnel where appropriate; and using economies of scale
when contracting for medical supplies and administrative
services. (Source:  Company Website)

Why We Like It:
Description of HCA tag it the No. 1 U.S. hospital chain, and as
befits the first place winner in any category, it's been
gathering some attention over the last week.  Late last week,
Merrill Lynch raised its rating on HCA to "buy" from "neutral."
Early this week, Bank of America raised its price target to
$40.00 from $35.00.  Buried under those releases, however, is a
sell rating issued by Fulcrum Global Partners, whose analyst
labeled as irrational the gains made after the company warned in
mid July.  When HCA released earnings a week later, they also
announced plans to cut back capital spending in 2004 and sell
$500 million in 10-year notes.  The Board of Directors threw in a
quarterly dividend, however.

We agree with the Fulcrum Global Partners analyst who thought
investors were missing the point.  She spoke of the gains made on
the day of the warning, but we took a look at the gains since the
middle of July, when those developments first surfaced.  We note
that those gains butted HCA against the top of a regression
channel and underneath the 200-dma.  Now HCA appears to be
rolling down beneath both, and we think it's headed back into the
gap support near $33.50.

While the 10-, 21-, and 50-dma's all slant up in bullish fashion,
the 200-dma dives down to meet HCA at its current level and has
not yet flattened.  RSI turns down.  Volume did not pick up as
HCA rose.  HCA also currently trades in the $37-38 resistance
zone from its weekly chart.  While we don't think HCA will
crater, we do think it may be due for a pullback to the ascending
trendline that's been forming since April.  With the 200-dma at
$37.52, we're placing our stop at $38.05.

Annotated Chart for HCA:


Picked on Aug 15 at  36.64
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  4.3 million




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 21.49 change: -0.18 stop: 19.60

Is it time for beauty rest?  HELE did not participate in the 0.83
percent gains made by the retail index, the RLX, on Friday.
Instead, HELE eased 0.83 percent.  We're reassured by the moving
averages, all still sloping up, and the MACD, RSI, and
stochastics, also all still climbing.  Those bearish divergences
we've been noting on some oscillators may be pointing to a need
for HELE to consolidate those recent gains.  When a stock has
trended this strongly, stochs and RSI get pinned in overbought
levels, not able to go higher, and so often signal bearish
divergence.

Just in case, we raised our stop Wednesday.  Conservative traders
might like to raise it further, to $19.99, just under the 10-dma
at $20.03.  New entries could be made on a pullback and bounce
from anywhere above $20.00.  Our first target remains $22.80-
23.00.

Annotated Chart for HELE:


Picked on Aug 10 at  21.03
Change since picked: +0.46
Earnings Date:    07/09/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  432 thousand




---


Hot Topic, Inc. - HOTT - cls: 31.66 chng: +0.46 stop: 30.25*new*

An old-fashioned earnings run and split run combined:  what could
be better than that?  Tax checks and back-to-school spending.
The teens who make up Hot Topic's customer base are sure to be
standing with their hands out, waiting for some of the expected
$400/child to spend on school clothes.  Some analysts
characterize HOTT as a company that "gets it," too, as far as
understanding the type of clothes teens want.

HOTT investors got it Friday, too, sending the stock to a new
closing high.  Volume dropped to half daily volume, but that was
true across the exchanges as traders stayed home after the power
outages.  We would discount the bearish import of the low volume
on Friday's rise.  We do note, however, that volume had already
been decreasing as the price rose, perhaps a danger sign.

Unless HOTT craters Monday morning, we won't be in this play long
enough to worry about that price/volume divergence.  HOTT reports
earnings Wednesday, so we'll be closing the play early next week.
We advise participants to begin closing out their positions on
strength.  We've set a new stop at $30.25.  We would not advise
new positions now, ahead of earnings.

Annotated Chart for HOTT:


Picked on Aug 10 at  30.16
Change since picked: +1.50
Earnings Date:    08/20/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  448 thousand




----


Newmont Mining - NEM - cls: 38.50 chng: -0.13 stop: 37.40*new*

We're having some fun now!  Actually, sleeping through Friday's
session would have proved to be more exciting than actually
watching the "action".  Our NEM play traded in a painfully tight
56 cent range near the top of its recent move, and it's no great
surprise with the December gold futures contract (GC03Z) trading
a paltry 60 contracts vs. a normal day where from 1400 to 2500
contracts change hands.  This is mostly the result of the power
outage in the Northeast and with no action in the futures
contract, it was no surprise to see the gold shares trade in
muted fashion as well.  We'll have to wait for more clarity next
week.  NEM is very close to our profit target of $39 and it has
been dancing around up here for most of the week.  Conservative
traders should have already harvested gains, which just leaves
those with a more aggressive risk profile holding on for a
potential move into the $39-40 area, at which point, they should
also take the money and run.  There's not much we can do to limit
our risk in the play from here, but we are inching our stop up to
$37.40, just under Wednesday's intraday low.  Just to be
perfectly clear, we are not recommending new entries at this
time.

Picked on July 23rd at   $35.28
Change since picked       +3.22
Earnings Date            7/31/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  4.60 mln





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Delta - DAL - close: 11.10  change: -0.19 stop: 11.86

The arrest of collaborators trying to sell shoulder-launched
surface-to-air missiles to undercover agents and the suspension
of some British airways flights due to unnamed security risks
troubled the airliners earlier in the week.  What else could go
wrong in the belabored airline industry?  A power outage that
resulted in hundreds of cancelled flights for the nation's
airliners.

The XAL dropped 0.57 percent Friday amid the chaos caused by the
power outages, and DAL dropped a heftier proportion, falling 1.68
percent.  Like many other stocks on Friday, DAL traded about half
its average daily volume, but the light volume can probably be
attributed to the chaos caused by the outages, too, rather than a
lack of conviction in the downside.

DAL tried hard to push above resistance Friday, testing both
historical resistance and the 21-dma.  The daily candle pierced
both those levels, but the small red body of the candle closed
below them.  MACD curls up, but remains below zero.  RSI had been
turning up, but hooked slightly down at the end of the day.

DAL's pattern still fits that of a bear-flag climb into
resistance.  Now the 200-dma has zoomed across to block advances
beyond our stop.  New entries could be considered on a rollover
from current levels.  Traders who prefer to enter on momentum
could enter on a drop below 10.25, but risk/reward parameters
might not be optimal for that entry since our target is $9.00.

Annotated Chart for DAL:


Picked on July 30 at 11.15
Change since picked: -0.05
Earnings Date:    07/17/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.3 million




---


Sharper Image - SHRP - close: 25.85  change: -0.10 stop: 18.79

In a classic sign of indecision among investors, SHRP's trade
Friday produced a high-wave doji, a candle that closed near its
open but traded in a wide range around that opening and closing
level.  The action scrambled the indicators, too, with RSI
beginning to roll beneath its trendline of lower highs, but with
stochastics rolling up.  The anemic volume Friday must be
discounted due to the effect of the power outages, but SHRP's
volume had been declining all week as it climbed toward the
violated H&S neckline.  SHRP also underperformed the RLX,
dropping on a day the RLX gained 0.83 percent.

Still, that high wave candle came close to piercing our stop.
Doji sometimes serve as reversal signals, and we hope that's true
this time, too.  The doji's upper shadow tested the 21-dma at
$26.43, but SHRP could not maintain that level and fell below
both that average and the 10-dma by the close.  Because SHRP
climbed so near our stop, we would not suggest new entries at
this level, but momentum entries could be made on a drop through
$24.00.  Our target remains $21.00.

Annotated Chart for SHRP:


Picked on Aug 10 at  24.65
Change since picked: +1.20
Earnings Date:    08/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  260 thousand




---


J.P. Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 33.66 change: -0.24 stop: 34.75

As expiration weeks go, this one just past was both boring and
exciting at the same time, at least if you were among those that
were affected by the power outage in the Northeast.  For the rest
of us, we were stuck watching an expiration Friday on Valium,
where little of consequence occurred.  Like so many other stocks,
JPM traded in a very narrow 52 cent range and ended down just a
bit after stretching the number of days in that bear flag pattern
to 8.  With volume very light, the 20-dma ($34.08) managed to
hold as resistance and the daily Stochastics are hinting at a
bearish rollover.  This looks like it could be a solid entry
point, but only if next week delivers some follow through
weakness both in JPM and in the Broker/Dealer index (XBD.X),
which is stubbornly back over the $550 resistance level.  More
conservative traders will need to see the stock break back under
$33 and preferably $32.40 (the August 4th intraday low) before
venturing into new positions.

Picked on July 30th at   $33.36
Change since picked       +0.30
Earnings Date           10/15/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  9.52 mln




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

AtheroGenics - AGIX - close: 12.12  change: -0.03 stop: 13.30

Company Description:
AtheroGenics is focused on the discovery, development and
commercialization of novel drugs for the treatment of chronic
inflammatory diseases, including heart disease (atherosclerosis),
rheumatoid arthritis and asthma.  The company has four drug
development programs in the clinic.  AtheroGenics' lead compound
AGI-1067 is being evaluated in a pivotal Phase III clinical trial
called ARISE (Aggressive Reduction of Inflammation Stops Events)
as an oral therapy for the treatment of atherosclerosis.  AGIX-
4207, the company's second clinical compound derived from its
proprietary v-protectant (TM) technology platform, is a novel,
oral agent being tested in a Phase II clinical program for the
treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.  AGIX-4207 I.V. is an
intravenous rheumatoid arthritis treatment that has completed a
Phase I clinical study.  AGI-1096 is a novel, oral agent that has
completed a Phase I clinical trial for the prevention of organ
transplant rejection.  (Source:  Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
When a company is involved in the development of so many helpful
drugs, we'd like to recommend it as a long, but we can't do that
for AGIX.  It printed a double-bottom breakdown on its P&F chart,
and its candlestick chart looks ugly, too.  Apparently Wachovia
was a step ahead of us when it cut AGIX's investment rating to
market perform from outperform on July 25, a day after AGIX
reported earnings.  Wachovia didn't see the price increasing over
the next twelve months.  AGIX has dropped more than a dollar
since Wachovia cut its rating despite the news that it had
completed patient enrollment in a Phase IIb study on one of its
drugs.

This week, the stock's performance wasn't helped when the company
announced plans to sell $75-80M in notes in a convertible debt
offering.  The stock has been dropping since on big volume.
Chart characteristics include a confirmed head-and-shoulders
formation, a drop beneath an ascending trendline, and then
consolidation in what appears to be a "b" distribution pattern.
We suggest an entry on an $11.99 trade.  Conservative traders
might wait until a drop below $11.60.  We're targeting $10.50,
just above the 200-dma and the downside target for the H&S
formation.

Annotated Chart for AGIX:


Picked on Aug 17 at  12.12
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    07/24/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  251 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

LSI Logic - LSI - close: 9.59  change: +0.10 stop: 8.99

LSI outperformed the SOX Friday on a percentage basis, climbing
on a day the SOX dropped 0.18 percent.  Although LSI has not yet
broken through $9.70, we like the way the small candles hug the
top of the trading range, just under that trigger.  Friday's
trading turned the stochastics up more strongly, and hinged the
RSI back up, too.  MACD makes a bullish kiss from above zero.

When volume returns next week after Friday's anemic trading, we
hope to see LSI break above our trigger.  It's tempting to enter
ahead of the trigger, but we've noticed that some bull flag
breakouts stall at equal highs lately, and we want to protect
against that possibility.  LSI's P&F ascending triple top
breakout predicts that we can still reap plenty of gains even if we wait patiently for that breakout.

Annotated Chart for LSI:


Picked on August 13 at 9.46
Change since picked:  +0.13
Earnings Date:     07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   4.5 million




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

SOHU.com - SOHU - close: 32.42  change: +1.21 stop: 34.30

The CBOE Internet Index, the $INX, climbed Friday and so did many
of SOHU's peers among the Chinese Internet-related stocks.  Not
SOHU.  The stock edged ever closer to a breakdown out of its
possible bear flag.  Depending on how that bear flag is drawn, it
may have closed beneath the formation.

Whether SOHU has violated the bear flag or only tests the bottom
support, it closed beneath its 10, 21, and 50-dma's.  RSI turned
back down and stochastics flattened after having tried to rise.
MACD slants strongly down and is below zero.  Stochastics and RSI
both appear to signal oversold conditions, but they can stay
pinned at that level as a decline picks up steam.  We hope that's
what happens with SOHU, too.

Because SOHU found support at $26.93 on the last steep decline,
we're raising our target to $27.00 from the previous $26.50.  New
entries could still be made on a rollover anywhere beneath
$34.00, but we're not sure that SOHU will provide that new entry.
Momentum entries could be made on a move through Friday's low,
but that type of entry would not offer good risk/reward
parameters with our new first target so close.

Some traders might elect to stay in the trade for a test of the
neckline of the H&S, but the most conservative exit would at
$27.00.

Annotated Chart for SOHU:


Picked on August 6 at 32.27
Change since picked:  -2.24
Earnings Date:     07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   4.6 million





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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-17-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 18th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of August 4th
==========================================


------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

A      Agilent Technologies  Mon, Aug 18  After the Bell     -0.07
DRYR   Dreyer's Gnd Ice Crm  Mon, Aug 18  After the Bell       N/A
LOW    Lowe's Companies      Mon, Aug 18  Before the Bell     0.69
TOY    Toys R Us             Mon, Aug 18  Before the Bell    -0.05


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BJ     BJ's Wholesale Club   Tue, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.32
CLL    Celltech Group PLC    Tue, Aug 19  Before the Bell      N/A
CCH    Coca-Cola Hlnic Btlng Tue, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.46
DV     DeVry                 Tue, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.20
HD     Home Depot Inc        Tue, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.54
INTU   Intuit                Tue, Aug 19  After the Bell     -0.07
NTAP   Network Appliance     Tue, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.07
PETC   PETCO ANIMAL SUPPLIES Tue, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.19
PCG    PG&E Corporation      Tue, Aug 19  -----N/A-----       0.39
SKS    Saks Incorporated     Tue, Aug 19  Before the Bell    -0.20
SPLS   Staples, Inc.         Tue, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.16
SCMR   Sycamore Networks     Tue, Aug 19  After the Bell     -0.05


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ADCT   ADC                   Wed, Aug 20  After the Bell     -0.01
BLI    Big Lots, Inc.        Wed, Aug 20  Before the Bell    -0.02
BCM    Can Imp Bank of Comm  Wed, Aug 20  Before the Bell      N/A
CSB    Ciba Spec Chem HoldingWed, Aug 20  Before the Bell      N/A
EV     Eaton Vance Corp.     Wed, Aug 20  Before the Bell     0.39
MW     Men's Wearhouse       Wed, Aug 20  After the Bell      0.26
OVTI   Omnivision Tech       Wed, Aug 20  After the Bell      0.20
PDCO   Patterson Dental      Wed, Aug 20  Before the Bell     0.44
ROST   Ross Stores, Inc.     Wed, Aug 20  Before the Bell     0.70
STOSY  Santos Ltd.           Wed, Aug 20  -----N/A-----        N/A
SCM    Swisscom AG           Wed, Aug 20  Before the Bell      N/A
SNPS   Synopsys              Wed, Aug 20  After the Bell      0.80
TLB    Talbots               Wed, Aug 20  -----N/A-----       0.31


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ARO    Aeropostale, Inc.     Thu, Aug 21  After the Bell      0.05
AMCR   Amcor Limited         Thu, Aug 21  -----N/A-----        N/A
ADSK   Autodesk, Inc.        Thu, Aug 21  After the Bell      0.10
BKS    Barnes&Noble          Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.16
BGP    Borders Group Inc.    Thu, Aug 21  After the Bell      0.02
BFb    Brown-Forman Corp     Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.67
CIEN   CIENA Corporation     Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell    -0.10
CLE    Claire's Stores       Thu, Aug 21  -----N/A-----       0.43
DYS    Dist Servicio D&S SA. Thu, Aug 21  -----N/A-----       0.07
FL     Foot Locker, Inc.     Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.24
FRED   Fred's                Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.11
GPS    Gap Inc.              Thu, Aug 21  -----N/A-----       0.21
HRL    Hormel Foods Corp     Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.27
SJM    J. M. Smucker Company Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.50
KKD    Krispy Kreme Doughnut Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.20
LANC   Lancaster Colony Corp Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.60
LTD    Limited Brands        Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.16
MRVL   Marvell Technology    Thu, Aug 21  -----N/A-----       0.21
JWN    Nordstrom             Thu, Aug 21  After the Bell      0.39
NOVL   Novell                Thu, Aug 21  -----N/A-----      -0.03
SFD    Smithfield Foods      Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.20
WSM    Williams-Sonoma       Thu, Aug 21  Before the Bell     0.14


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

PNY    Piedmont Natural Gas  Fri, Aug 22  -----N/A-----      -0.28
KPN    Royal Kpn N.V.        Fri, Aug 22  Before the Bell      N/A
WPPGY  WPP Group PLC         Fri, Aug 22  Before the Bell     1.03


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

RNT     Aaron Rents               3:2      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
ARRO    Arrow Intl                2:1      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
JEF     Jeffries Group            2:1      Aug  15th   Aug  18th
GPT     GreenPoint Financial Corp 3:2      Aug  20th   Aug  21st
TSCO    Tractor Supply Company    2:1      Aug  21st   Aug  22nd
TTI     Tetra Technologies Inc    3:2      Aug  21st   Aug  22nd
CECO    Career Education Corp     2:1      Aug  22nd   Aug  25th
FOBB    First Oak Brook Bancshares3:2      Aug  25th   Aug  26th
CELL    Brightpoint Inc           3:2      Aug  25th   Aug  26th
CBK     Christopher & Banks Corp  3:2      Aug  27th   Aug  28th
BER     W. R. Berkley Corp        3:2      Aug  27th   Aug  28th
EBAY    eBay                      2:1      Aug  28th   Aug  29th
JBHT    J.B. Hunt Transport Serv  2:1      Aug  29th   Sep   1st
RCII    Rent A Center             5:2      Aug  29th   Sep   1st
AFP     United Capital Corp       2:1      Aug  29th   Sep   1st
JCOM    J2 Global Communication   2:1      Aug  29th   Sep   1st


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The past earnings season is slowly coming to a halt as this weeks
earnings are predominantly on the retail side.  However it looks
like split season is well underway, as a grunt load of companies
are due to announce over the next two weeks.   There are not as
many economic reports this week as there was last week, but
traders should keep an eye on the Mich Sentiment-Prel. due out on
Tuesday and the Philadelphia Fed coming out on Thursday.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 08/18/03
----------------
None


----------------
Tuesday, 08/19/03
----------------
Housing Starts (BB)     Jul  Forecast:  1.790M  Previous:   1.803M
Building Permits (BB)   Jul  Forecast:  1.800M  Previous:   1.817M
Mich Sentiment-Prel.(DM)Aug  Forecast:    91.5  Previous:     90.9
Treasury Budget (DM)    Jul  Forecast: -$42.0B  Previous:  -$29.2B


-------------------
Wednesday, 08/20/03
-------------------
None


------------------
Thursday, 08/21/03
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   08/16  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     398K
Leading Indicators(DM)  Jul  Forecast:    0.4%  Previous:     0.1%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)   Aug  Forecast:    10.0  Previous:      8.3


----------------
Friday, 08/22/03
----------------
None


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available




======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FII     Federated Investors B      29.63     +0.56
DYII    Dynacq International Inc   20.52     +0.75
SGR     Shaw Group Inc              8.26     +0.98
MRTN    Marten Transport Ltd       22.20     +1.25


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

APCC    American Power Conversion  17.98     +1.82
ADIC    Advanced Digital Info      12.16     +1.92
PWR     Quanta Services Inc         6.90     +1.52
CHP     C&D Technologies Inc       17.49     +1.72
FCEL    Fuelcell Energy Inc         9.40     +1.60
BGC     General Cable Corp          8.15     +1.15
AMSC    American Superconductor    13.20     +3.95


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

BGG     Briggs & Stratton Corp     56.98     +1.87
OTEX    Open Text Corp             31.50     +3.91
SCSC    Scansource Inc             38.36     +4.23
IMGC    Intermagnetics General Crp 23.91     +3.47
SFCC    SFBC International Inc     27.38     +1.19


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NFI     Novastar Financial Inc     53.02     -3.68


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

None



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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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