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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-24-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      The Music Stopped
Play-of-the-Day:  Detection at Work
Market Sentiment: About-Face

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 8-22         WE 8-15         WE 8-08         WE 8-01
DOW     9348.87 + 27.18 9321.69 +130.60 9191.09 + 37.12 -130.60
Nasdaq  1765,32 + 63.31 1702.01 + 57.98 1644.03 - 71.59 - 15.08
S&P-100  497.42 -  0.88  498.30 +  4.50  493.80 +  0.16 -  9.30
S&P-500  993.06 +  2.39  990.67 + 13.08  977.59 -  2.56 - 18.53
W5000   9612.43 + 64.92 9547.51 +154.78 9392.73 - 61.43 -145.20
RUT      485.51 + 13.59  471.92 + 17.98  453.94 - 14.14 -  0.80
TRAN    2641.56 + 17.90 2623.66 + 44.63 2579.03 - 16.88 - 19.88
VIX       20.27 +  0.07   20.20 -  1.09   21.29 -  1.49 +  2.84
VXN       29.47 +  0.26   29.21 -  2.82   32.03 -  0.45 +  2.44
TRIN       1.36            1.01            0.87            1.08
Put/Call   0.91            0.53            0.81            0.91
Avg Highs   720             338             189             462
Avg Lows     58              62              86              72
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

The Music Stopped
by Jim Brown

If you read my wrap from Thursday night you know what the title
means. The move to the sidelines was orderly and patient but it
was persistent. The difference in sentiment between the open and
the close was as different as night an day but in reality nothing
changed. The Nasdaq dropped -46 points from its morning high but
only ended down -12 points for the day and up +63 for the week.
Yes, it was a dramatic move but all things considered it meant
nothing.

Economically the day was a dud. The ECRI (the who cares report)
was flat again at 127.6. The only material change was in the 6mo
growth rate which fell to 12.7 from last weeks 13.2. No big deal
here. Cooling home sales and rising interest rates are dampening
the growth in this index.

The only other report was the Internet E-Commerce Sales for Q2.
It came in at $12.48 billion and up from $11.93 billion in Q1.
Sales were up +27.8% from Q2-2002. While dollar volume is rising
the percentage of Internet sales to all sales is dropping slightly.
It was 1.59% in the 4Q-2002 and fell to 1.45% in Q2. Most analysts
had expected sales volume to drop instead of rise but the overall
impact of the report was negligible.

Nobody cared about the economics because Intel surprised everyone
by raising guidance before the open. Futures rocketed from 1002
to 1012 between 8:30 and 9:30. The markets opened up at new highs
with Intel in both the Dow and the Nasdaq. The Dow raced to touch
9499.97 and a level not seen since June-20th 2002. Weekly levels
of resistance were blown away in a few ticks but the index fell
03 short of touching the electric fence at 9500. The Nasdaq hit
1812 and a level not seen since April-19th 2002. The sun was
shining, birds were singing and everybody was praising Abby Cohen
and her latest earnings upgrade for the S&P. That all happened
before 10:AM.

When the clock struck 10:00 the bull's tech express turned into
a pumpkin and the wheels quickly fell off the rally. I say this
only tongue in cheek because nothing has really changed. The
drop from the highs of the day was dramatic but it occurred
on low volume and it was very orderly. Decliners beat advancers
2:1 but new highs still hit 721 and new lows only 53. The VIX
was not off or under the scale with a low of 19.41 but it has
climbed for four days from its 19.06 low on Monday. No news
there. So what derailed the tech express in light of the Intel
announcement?

Intel itself was the primary cause of the change in sentiment.
Intel CEO Craig Barrett went on record Thursday by saying they
were seeing some selective buying in PCs but he qualified it
with "We're not seeing a big upgrade cycle and we're not seeing
IT budgets being raised." Ok, we can all buy that and thank you
for the clarification. He knew what was coming and wanted to
blunt the reaction. Friday morning Intel raised revenue estimates
from +6% growth to +11% growth for the quarter over last year
and raised the gross margin to 56% from 54%. The new $7.55B
estimate was higher than the consensus estimates of $7.24B by
about $300M. The margin gains are being fueled by a move to the
higher end products like chips for notebooks and servers. We
have heard from Dell, HPQ and GTW that PC sales are soft with
the only consumer interest in laptops. Servers are so cheap
that companies are beginning to selectively upgrade but the real
key was the stronger than expected back to school bounce.

Consumers are taking their tax checks and refi funds and buying
new computers for students. Intel said they did not see it
coming because of the very low visibility in the market. Also
helping them is the price war between Dell, HPQ and the white
box makers. The prices are so low for the commodity PC that
retail buyers are being lured into the back to school market
where they would not have ventured before. The $499 computer
is flooding the market and the only winner is Intel. The box
makers all buy the same chips and they are cutting their throat
on the sell side to keep the volume up. You can imagine Intel's
delight to see the chips flowing out the door like cocaine to
street dealers. There is no profit in the food chain unless you
are at the top and everybody is continuing to deal just to
support their habits.

Intel said other chips remain soft and Andy Bryant tried to tone
down the excitement with several well placed comments. He said
it is unclear if the unexpected bounce in the early part of the
quarter would continue in the coming weeks. He said their chip
plants were running at nearly full capacity and they were
experiencing some shortages. That is a problem he would love to
face in light of some plant closings over the last couple years.
They are leaner now and shortages would keep prices up. Part of
the higher margin guidance is because they have not lowered
their prices this quarter. This is a good sign that they do not
feel pressured by lack of demand.

So what caused the sell off? On the conference call Intel refused
to give any specific guidance or answer any pointed questions.
They said the bounce might only be a temporary result of the Dell
price war in anticipation of back to school sales. There was some
veiled rumors that it was the result of some channel stuffing
and volume requirements of dealers to get decent prices. They
repeated the claim that IT spending was not improving and they
had limited visibility going forward. Considering they just
raised guidance the conference call was anything but bullish.
They raised our hopes and then popped our balloon. However it
was not the first time this year for this to happen. In June
Intel raised guidance with the following comment. "The company's
Intel Architecture business is trending to the high end of the
normal seasonal pattern while demand for communications products
remains soft. All other expectations are unchanged". With that
comment Intel gapped open and capped the end of a two week
rally. In March Intel saw the exact same bounce into the
guidance statement only they guided to the lower end of the
range. The bottom line here is that it does not seem to make
any difference what they say. The smart money has already
bought the rumor and they sell the announcement. Note the
SOX chart shows an even more drastic reaction to the Intel
news.

Intel Chart


SOX Chart



On the trading floor the thought process was more in the "so
what" category. Everybody has been buying the rally for several
months in anticipation of exactly what Intel failed to say.
They did not want to hear a few computers were going to be
doing school work. After 2-4 weeks that boom will be history.
They wanted to hear that companies were dumping in mass their
Y2K dinosaurs and stepping into the Star Wars generation. They
wanted to hear that budgets were being raised +15-25% to add
infrastructure in the form of servers and routers. The markets
did not get what they wanted. They did not get what they thought
they paid for over the last three months. Instead of confirming
the recovery Intel went out of their way, twice, to say there
was no real improvement in IT spending. There is some evidence
that small businesses are starting to crack their checkbooks
but they have yet to brush away the cobwebs.

The market flamed out on Friday like a rocket that had run out
of fuel before reaching orbit. It was spectacular but far from
the beginning of a new bear market. Even with the drop the
Nasdaq still finished +63 for the week. While the Dow at +27
was less exciting it still finished the week positive. Both
indexes are still at the upper end of their trading ranges and
even with the -150 drop off the Dow's intraday highs it still
closed right on support that has been resistance for three
months. This is not an ugly picture. The uptrend support is
still intact.

Dow Chart


The Nasdaq closed -46 points off its high, oh my! So what? The
Nasdaq had jumped +172 points since the 1640 low on August-8th.
In only 10 trading days it had climbed +10.5%. Read my print,
profit taking was due. Still it only fell back to just below
the uptrend resistance at 1767 from August-2002. Not a shabby
performance and a perfectly logical place to stop.

Nasdaq Chart


The most disturbing chart for the bulls is the S&P-500. The
S&P has failed to confirm the Dow or Nasdaq and failed to break
or even hit the two prior highs at 1015 from June and July.
This is very troubling for the bulls but for traders it has
been very profitable. The "buy 960,short 1000" trading plan has
been working so well that traders hate to part with it. The
constant range bound market is still in place on the S&P. The
failure to break to a new high formed a triple top on the S&P
and the normal pattern would be for the next test of 960 to
fail. I doubt it will do that next week with the bullish
undertones to the market.

S&P Chart


The problem is not next week but next week could be a problem.
Confused. Typically the week before Labor Day is worthless.
The volume is so low you can go to lunch and not miss a candle.
Many traders take off the week before Labor Day. Considering
we are entering the holiday week on a down note it could set
the tone and with low volume drift lower. Volume is a tool
of the bulls and markets do not hold major up moves without
it. We have had very low volume this week and you see where we
ended. We had lots of volatility and lots of movement but no
conviction. It was all knee jerk reactions to news events.
Nobody has yet to explain to me why Chemical Ali was bad for
the market and why his capture was bullish.

The problem is actually the next week. When traders come back
from the Labor Day holiday they typically are ready for a
change. The institutions begin thinking about taking profits
before the October dip and their year ends. They will lighten
in September and buy the dip in October. In 1929 the market
top came on the day after Labor Day. In the last 75 Septembers
only 30 have finished with a gain. Portfolio managers come
back from the Hamptons with a broom in one hand and a financial
statement in the other. Dump the losers and take profits on the
winners. The day after Labor Day is normally bullish, up 7 of
the last 8 years, but the excitement ends there. The September
end of quarter portfolio restructuring is the worst quarter of
the year. Will that happen this year? Nobody knows but with
huge gains after a three years of losses it is a sure bet the
funds will want to capture some of them before they get away.

A tidbit I picked up on Friday may give us a clue. Insider
selling is typically a leading indicator of market health. If
they are buying then the outlook for their company is strong.
If they are selling the outlook is weak. According to trackers
when the insider selling reaches 20:1 over buying it is bearish.
Currently sellers are running 35:1 over buyers. It has been
over 20:1 for four months. What do Gates and Dell call it?
Diversification. Michael Dell's wife diversified by selling
one million shares last week. $32 million in back to school
money for the kids. Michael sold 10 million last week. $320
million will buy some real toys. With 268 million shares left
they are going to need a lot of diversification. Michael if
you are reading this I am available for adoption.

The economic calendar begins with Existing Home sales on Monday,
and Durable Goods, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence on
Tuesday. Skip Wednesday and pickup GDP, Chicago NAPM, Help
Wanted and Monthly Mass Layoffs on Thursday. Friday has Personal
Income, NY-NAPM, PMI and Michigan Sentiment again. The confidence
and sentiment numbers should be critical as well as the Chicago
and NY NAPM reports. As long as there is no critical damage in
these then the rally should continue with time outs for profit
taking. If anything the sell off on Friday took the pressure
off the shorts. They are no longer looking for high windows and
will be breathing easier over the weekend. Bulls are already
deciding where they can pick up some more bargains. Which side
you are on depends on whether you see the glass half full or
half empty. Personally I think the irrational exuberance from
last week filled it to overflowing and we need to pour a little
out before we can continue the process. There is no clear
answer but as long as the earnings and economic news continues
to improve the profit taking may be brief.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bullish)
=========================

Cohu, Inc. - COHU - close: 21.80 change: +0.81 - stop: 19.49

Company Description:
Cohu is a leading supplier of test handling solutions used by the
global semiconductor industry as well as a supplier of closed
circuit television, metal detection and microwave radio
equipment.  (Source:  Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
COHU caught the attention of several of our writers Friday when
it moved up on strong volume, and a study of its chart showed
many other likeable characteristics.  We noted that Friday's
candle popped above a trendline that had been in place since
early August 2002.  In addition, since May, COHU had been forming
a reverse H&S with a slanting neckline at that same trendline.
The move above the trendline confirmed that reverse H&S.  COHU's
P&F chart shows a fresh double top breakout signal.

The weekly chart turns up some resistance just above the current
level, up to $22.50-23.00, so it's possible that COHU might churn
around a bit at current levels before heading up to meet the
target predicted by the reverse H&S.  We're setting a target of
$26.00, just below the target predicted by the reverse H&S.

Volume has been strong all week and increased Friday, but we do
note that COHU's ADV is lower than the 200-250 thousand we
usually prefer as a cutoff, making this a somewhat risky play.
MACD turns back up, and RSI and stochastics remain strong.
Stochastics remain below the level they reached at the last price
peak, indicating possible bearish divergence if stochastics do
not continue to move higher.  So far, it appears that's exactly
what they'll do.

We're setting our stop at $19.49, just below the rising 10-dma at
$19.59.  The 21-dma ascends just beneath it, currently at $19.28,
and should meet and support the price if COHU retreats.

While we wish that COHU would pull back to $20.50 or so to
consolidate recent gains, that jump over long-held resistance on
strong volume may predict that it won't do so.  Friday's candle
displayed a long wick, but INTC's news and the reaction produced
similar candles on many charts, especially semi-related stocks.
Just in case this is the second candle of a three-candle evening-
star pattern, however, we're going to set a trigger at $22.00.
An alternative entry would be on a pullback and bounce from
anywhere above $20.50.

Annotated Chart for COHU:


Picked on Aug 24 at  21.80
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    07/26/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  154 thousand






================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

About-Face
-Jonathan Levinson
 
After week of immersion in the daily and intraday charts, we can
look to the big picture and see how the story has unfolded on the
weekly candlestick charts.
 
Stocks had a negative week, with the S&P leading to the downside,
followed by the Dow, with the Nasdaq finishing as the strongest
of the three.  The SPX closed at its weekly low, traversing a
wide range to the upside but failing to hold any of it.  This is
known in candlestick charting terms as a shooting star doji, and
projects further weakness on this timeframe.  The same formation
was printed by Dow.  The Nasdaq closed lower as well, but did not
"blow off" as much of its gains.  The resulting gravestone doji
candle is also bearish, but not as much as those of the SPX and
INDU.
 
The VIX printed a a bullish doji star on the weekly candle chart,
while the QQV and VXN gave us bullish doji hammers.  The term
"doji" is coming up a lot, and this smacks of reversal, with
topping / reversal candles on stocks coinciding with bottoming
/reversal candles on the volatility indices.
 
These signals on the weekly charts are indicative of the broader
trend, and do not rule out bounces or even rallies from here. 
But, on this longer timeframe, this was a week of reversals, and
next week will be crucial in confirming whether the market is
entering the next bearish wave.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9499
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9348

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9344
 50-dma: 9185
200-dma: 8592

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1015
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  993

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  991
 50-dma:  990
200-dma:  917

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1342
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1304

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1271
 50-dma: 1252
200-dma: 1108


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX just finished two days under the 20 level and Friday's market
weakness was enough to pop it back above this pivotal area.  The VXN
has rebounded from all time lows near 26.00 and is about to break above
the 30 mark.  By all indications we could be witnessing the market top
that these volatility indices have been forecasting for months now.  It
just took an extreme reading to signal the turning point.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.27 +0.56
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 29.47 +1.83

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.91        511,038       463,251
Equity Only    0.72        439,724       315,751
OEX            1.27         18,281        23,138
QQQ            0.75         29,991        22,467


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          70.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    75.0    + 3     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       77.4    + 1     Bull Correction
S&P 100       84.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.97
10-Day Arms Index  0.92
21-Day Arms Index  0.99
55-Day Arms Index  1.09


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     838      1022
Decliners    1996      2061

New Highs      76       115
New Lows       10         4

Up Volume    396M      673M
Down Vol.   1161M     1002M

Total Vol.  1566M     1685M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/19/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

There is nothing eye opening to report in the large S&P futures
contracts today.  Commercials remain slight more short than long
and small traders are significantly long the market.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/29/03      405,429   445,114   (39,685)   (4.7%)
08/05/03      395,633   450,988   (55,353)   (6.5%)
08/12/03      399,414   456,767   (57,353)   (6.7%)
08/19/03      404,665   455,381   (50,716)   (5.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03      155,216    73,030    82,186    36.0%
08/05/03      159,971    72,951    87,020    37.4%
08/12/03      158,821    71,040    87,781    38.2%
08/19/03      162,034    87,064    74,970    30.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Meanwhile for the e-mini contracts commercial traders are
still net long.  Small traders are still net short but we
saw a big increase in long positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/29/03      272,659   216,166     56,493    11.6%
08/05/03      310,662   249,004     61,658    11.0%
08/12/03      306,014   217,233     88,781    17.0%
08/19/03      296,971   235,779     61,192    11.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   88,781   - 08/12/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       44,437    93,144   (48,707)  (35.4%)
08/05/03       56,663    95,919   (39,256)  (25.7%)
08/12/03       62,534   106,403   (43,869)  (26.0%)
08/19/03       90,428   125,980   (35,552)  (16.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (48,707)  - 07/29/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Hmm... interesting development here.  Commercial traders
are still net short the NDX so that's not a surprise but
the extreme just brushed a new "high" so to speak.  Retail
traders are still net long but there was a big bump in
short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       31,456     50,294   (18,838) (23.0%)
08/05/03       32,813     52,383   (19,570) (23.0%)
08/12/03       34,374     53,015   (18,641) (21.3%)
08/19/03       32,107     53,665   (21,558) (25.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,558)  - 08/19/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       25,691     7,810    17,881    53.4%
08/05/03       22,188     7,783    14,405    48.1%
08/12/03       23,957     7,871    16,086    50.5%
08/19/03       25,607    10,134    15,473    43.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Wow!  We see a big change in sentiment by the commercial
traders in the DJ futures.  Short positions doubled indicating
a growing expectation that the market could rollover.
Right on cue the retail trader is picking the wrong direction
and more than doubled their long positions while slashing
their shorts.  This sort of extreme flip-flop would indicate
a market reversal in the making.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       23,696     9,572   14,124      42.5%
08/05/03       23,981     9,264   14,717      44.3%
08/12/03       24,942     9,878   15,064      43.3%
08/19/03       21,088    18,984    2,104       5.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/29/03        5,744    11,601   (5,857)   (33.8%)
08/05/03        5,716    10,422   (4,706)   (29.2%)
08/12/03        6,933    13,248   (6,315)   (31.3%)
08/19/03       15,717     9,143    6,574     26.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   6,574  -  8/19/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-24-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Tech Stocks
  New Bullish Plays:     COHU
  Closed Bullish Plays:  IRF

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     GOLD
  New Bearish Plays:     C
  Bearish Play Updates:  ABC, HCA
  Closed Bullish Plays:  HELE

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  TWR
  Bearish Play Updates:  AGIX
  Closed Bullish Plays:  LSI


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Cohu, Inc. - COHU - close: 21.80 change: +0.81 - stop: 19.49

Company Description:
Cohu is a leading supplier of test handling solutions used by the
global semiconductor industry as well as a supplier of closed
circuit television, metal detection and microwave radio
equipment.  (Source:  Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
COHU caught the attention of several of our writers Friday when
it moved up on strong volume, and a study of its chart showed
many other likeable characteristics.  We noted that Friday's
candle popped above a trendline that had been in place since
early August 2002.  In addition, since May, COHU had been forming
a reverse H&S with a slanting neckline at that same trendline.
The move above the trendline confirmed that reverse H&S.  COHU's
P&F chart shows a fresh double top breakout signal.

The weekly chart turns up some resistance just above the current
level, up to $22.50-23.00, so it's possible that COHU might churn
around a bit at current levels before heading up to meet the
target predicted by the reverse H&S.  We're setting a target of
$26.00, just below the target predicted by the reverse H&S.

Volume has been strong all week and increased Friday, but we do
note that COHU's ADV is lower than the 200-250 thousand we
usually prefer as a cutoff, making this a somewhat risky play.
MACD turns back up, and RSI and stochastics remain strong.
Stochastics remain below the level they reached at the last price
peak, indicating possible bearish divergence if stochastics do
not continue to move higher.  So far, it appears that's exactly
what they'll do.

We're setting our stop at $19.49, just below the rising 10-dma at
$19.59.  The 21-dma ascends just beneath it, currently at $19.28,
and should meet and support the price if COHU retreats.

While we wish that COHU would pull back to $20.50 or so to
consolidate recent gains, that jump over long-held resistance on
strong volume may predict that it won't do so.  Friday's candle
displayed a long wick, but INTC's news and the reaction produced
similar candles on many charts, especially semi-related stocks.
Just in case this is the second candle of a three-candle evening-
star pattern, however, we're going to set a trigger at $22.00.
An alternative entry would be on a pullback and bounce from
anywhere above $20.50.

Annotated Chart for COHU:


Picked on Aug 24 at  21.80
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    07/26/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  154 thousand





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


Int'l Rectifier - IRF - close: 38.44 change: +0.53 stop: 34.75

Capped off by INTC's bullish comments on Friday morning, the
Semiconductor index has had quite the run over the past couple
weeks, vaulting from below the bottom of its violated ascending
channel to well above the top of that channel, a 24% move!  Our
IRF play was no slacker either, reaching as high as $39.90 this
morning, a mere dime below our final target of $40.  Given the
sharp pullback through the remainder of the day, we're going to
call it quits on the play tonight, very happy with the 16.5% gain
from where we picked it a week and a half ago.  Today's candle in
both IRF and the SOX has the look of a blowoff top (a new high
and then a sharp high-volume reversal), and we'd prefer to
monitor this picture from the sidelines.

Picked on August 13th at  $32.99
Change since picked        +5.45
Earnings Date           10/30/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     914 K





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Randgold - GOLD - close: 23.40 change: +0.90 - stop: 21.49

Company Description:
Randgold Resources is an African gold mining and exploration
business incorporated in the Channel Islands in 1995 and listed
on the London Stock Exchange in 1994 and on Nasdaq in 2002.
(Source:  Company Website.)

Why We Like It:
Friday, Martin Pring, the author of several texts on technical
analysis, spoke on CNBC and noted the upside expected in gold
stocks.  He spoke about the HUI, the gold bugs index.  We're glad
he mentioned the HUI, because we had already noticed that one
component, GOLD, appeared to be breaking out.

After rallying, gold futures have been consolidating in a
symmetrical triangle with the presumption being that the breakout
will be to the upside.  Depending on how the upper trendline is
constructed, gold futures may actually already have edged over
the upper trendline.  The HUI pulled back on Thursday and Friday,
but has been regularly consolidating, then breaking out and
moving up about ten points.  We think it's time to consider a
bullish gold play.

GOLD closed at a new daily and weekly high on Friday.  It's on a
P&F buy signal.  Volume picked up, too.  MACD lines separated and
turned up, and RSI and stochastics both turned up again.  We'd
like to play GOLD at current levels, but we're aware of that
symmetrical triangle on the gold futures and also of an ascending
trendline connecting the last three GOLD highs.  That trendline
crosses just above $24.00.  To ensure that this breakout is real,
we're setting a trigger at $24.50.  A move above $24.00 will also
give a new P&F buy signal, confirming the breakout.  Our stop is
$21.49, and aggressive traders could target a pullback and bounce
from that level rather than waiting for the trigger to be hit.

Annotated Chart for GOLD:


Picked on Aug 24 at  23.40
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    08/12/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  360 thousand




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Citigroup, Inc. - C - close: 43.10 change: +3.83 stop: 45.75

Company Description:
Citigroup Inc. is a diversified global financial services holding
company whose businesses provide a broad range of financial
services to consumer and corporate customers.  The company has
over 192 million customer accounts in over 100 countries and
territories.  C's activities are conducted through Global
Consumer, which delivers a wide array of banking, lending,
insurance and investment services; Global Corporate, which
provides corporations, governments, institutions and investors
with a broad range of financial products and services and Global
Investment Management, which offers a broad range of life
insurance, annuities and asset management products and services.
Additionally, the company's Investment Activities division
consists of the firm's venture capital activities.

Why we like it:
While Technology stocks may be the engine of growth in the
market, The Financial sector is the fuel that keeps the engine
running.  Simply put, if the Financial sector doesn't
participate, any rally in the broad market is going to have an
uphill battle in front of it.  Despite the DOW and NASDAQ indices
shooting to new 52-week highs last week, the action in the
Financial sectors should be giving the bulls pause.  The Banking
index (BKX.X) posted another lower high and broke below the 50-
dma on Friday, now more than 5% off its July closing high.  We
can see a corresponding pattern of weakness in shares of C, which
rolled from another lower high last week, solidly falling below
the 50-dma ($44.64).  While the standard scale PnF chart doesn't
show the potential for a Sell signal anytime soon, dialing down
to the 0.5-point box size reveals a very interesting picture.
Since early June, C has rebounded on four separate occasions from
the $42.50 level, each time unable to trade $42.  Should that
support break, the stock will be on a PnF Sell on this
unconventional scale, which will generate a tentative bearish
price target of $38.  Not a huge move to be sure, but $5 from
here is still a 10% move.

There's another factor working in our favor on that break of $42,
as it would represent a break of the neckline of the H&S pattern
that has been building since June.  Measuring the distance from
the head ($48) to the neckline ($42) gives an even more
optimistic price target of $36 (42-6).  The key will be whether
the neckline can break.  Aggressive traders can consider new
positions on another failed rebound below the 50-dma (currently
$44.64) in anticipation of that breakdown, while the more
conservative approach will be to wait for the breakdown to occur
before playing.  There's the potential for support to materialize
near $40, and then we'll have to contend with the 200-dma
($38.82), but $38 looks like a viable target for which to shoot.
Look for continued weakness from the BKX to confirm downside
potential for C.  If the BKX loses the $850 level (which will
constitute a break of its own H&S neckline), then it ought to
seek out its 200-dma below $800 and that will help to pressure C
down towards its own 200-dma.  Set initial stops at $45.75, just
over the recent failed rally peak.

Annotated Chart of C:


Picked on August 24th at  $43.10
Change since picked        +0.00
Earnings Date           10/13/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  13.1 mln





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


AmerisourceBergen - ABC - close: 59.31 change: -0.83 stop: 62.05

There's just no way to paint Friday's market action in a bullish
light, as the early ramp failed 30 minutes into the day, with
each and every rebound attempt rebuffed right into the closing
bell.  Our ABC play made an initial surge above $60 which quickly
dropped back near Thursday's lows, leading to midday
consolidation before the slide into the close that left the stock
resting just above its 200-dma ($59.19).  While we like the
downward action, it was a bit disappointing to see it come on
rather light volume that was barely half the ADV.  This hints
that perhaps there will be a near-term rebound from this area,
but so long as it fails below the 20-dma (now at $61.57), the
bearish picture will remain intact.  So shorting into a rebound
failure still looks good for aggressive entries, while those
looking to enter on weakness will want to use either a break
below the 200-dma.  Then there's the potential for support to
appear near $58 (the reaction low from early August) before
continuing down to our initial target of $56.  Recall that level
is the site of the bullish support line on the PnF chart and will
likely result in a near-term rebound.  Maintain stops at $62.05
until the 200-dma breaks.

Picked on August 10th at  $60.00
Change since picked        -0.69
Earnings Date           10/23/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.38 mln





---


Healthcare Co. - HCA - cls: 35.92 chng: -0.18 - stop: 37.51*new*

Although competitor Select Medical (SEM) announced the opening of
a new hospital in Nebraska, the HCA news department was quiet.
$IXV, the Healthcare Select Sector Index, declined 1.37 percent
on Friday.  Although HCA declined a less-drastic 0.50 percent, we
like the form the decline took.  HCA opened near its high of the
day and then declined steeply during rest of the morning.  It
consolidated during the afternoon, forming a pattern of lower
highs, and finally closed near the low of the day.

That action printed a bearish candle that closed just below HCA's
21-dma.  We wish HCA had also closed below the gap from early
August, but it now rests only ten cents below the bottom of that
gap.  A study of HCA's chart shows that this is a stock that
often gaps, however, and it would suit us just fine if it did
that next week, gapping down past next support and heading toward
our $33.50 target.  We do note, however, that the 50-dma has
risen to $33.96.  That average can be expected to provide at
least minimal support.  Conservative traders might consider a
target of $34.25, just above the June 2 high of the day.

RSI still turns down and stochastics only now begin to turn down,
not yet fully rolling beneath the level indicating overbought
conditions.  HCA looks as if it has plenty of room to fall, but
we do note that it's at the midline support of its rising
regression channel as well as at the bottom of early August's
gap. It's possible that HCA could attempt another bounce back up
to the support that was broken on Thursday.  If so, trader
seeking new entries could enter on a bounce and rollover anywhere
below $36.50.

Annotated Chart for HCA:


Picked on Aug 15 at  36.64
Change since picked: -0.73
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  4.3 million




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 21.50  change: +0.05 stop: 20.89

On a day when the RLX and many other retailers dove, HELE held up
well on Friday.  The stock reached down to touch support and
rebounded, springing above the 10-dma.  Unfortunately that
support turned out to be $.14 below our $20.89 stop.

Early this week, HELE appointed a new VP and CFO, bringing on
board a man who had held a similar capacity in various other
companies.  On July 16 and 19, financials were released,
including the 8-K.  We're not sure whether any of that
information impacted HELE or whether it was just time for some
profit-taking.

Friday's volume was low and the spring up from support brought it
only to the bottom of its recent consolidation pattern.  MACD,
RSI, and stochastics all look toppy, but have not yet fully
rolled down and may signal nothing more than consolidation when
they do.  We had been noting the bearish divergence on the
oscillators, but that sometimes occurs with oscillators such as
RSI and stochastics.  Those oscillators top out and can't move
any higher, unlike MACD.  MACD appeared to be heading slightly
upward, perhaps confirming the higher prices.

Picked on Aug 10 at  21.03
Change since picked: +0.47
Earnings Date:    07/09/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  432 thousand





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Tower Automotive - TWR - cls: 4.22 chng: +0.03 stop: 3.75*new*

While there wasn't any news to drive the action, shares of TWR
had a pretty wild day on Friday.  Dipping back near $4.00 at the
open, then surging to just under $4.40 and then closing right in
the middle of that range following the late-day swoon.  The stock
still managed to eke out a fractional gain on the day, keeping
the uptrend intact, but there are some danger signs to be aware
of.  The stock is coming up into the $4.30-4.40 area, which
represented resistance last month, and daily Stochastics are
starting to hook downwards as a result of the drop at the end of
the day.  On the positive side of the ledger though, the stock
once again found support near the 50-dma (currently $4.05) and
closed over the 20-dma ($4.13) for the second day in a row.
Rebounds from above the $4.00 level still look good for new
entries ahead of a continuation of the bullish trend that is
still in place.  Raise stops to $3.75, just under the last series
of closing lows.

Picked on August 10th at   $4.10
Change since picked        +0.12
Earnings Date           10/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     554 K






  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

AtheroGenics - AGIX - close: 13.05  change: -0.01 stop: 13.30

AGIX spent the week taunting us.  For a week, AGIX tested the
stop and then fell back.  Friday, it happened again, with AGIX
coming within $0.13 of the stop.

While we're pleased that the resistance has held, we don't like
the way AGIX climbed above its 10-dma on Thursday and again on
Friday.  AGIX has not traded above its 10-dma since August 12.
We do note, though, that the close above the 10-dma on August 10
was succeeded by a quick drop, and we hope that happens this time
as AGIX completes its test of broken resistance and rolls down
again.

Volume has decreased all week as AGIX climbed and tested that
resistance.  RSI flattened and so did MACD.  Stochastics had been
rising, but they now hint at a bearish roll in mid-rise.  That
possible stochastics rollover has not yet been accomplished,
however, and it's still possible that AGIX could hit our stop.
The 21-dma has been sloping down strongly and now lies just ahead
at $13.49.  We hope it applies just enough pressure to keep AGIX
from moving any higher.

Those seeking a new entry should wait on a fall beneath $12.75 or
possibly $12.60.  Although volume confirmation isn't as necessary
with a decline as it is with a rise, volume confirmation would be
nice to have on a rollover entry.

Annotated Chart for AGIX:



Picked on Aug 17 at  12.12
Change since picked: +0.93
Earnings Date:    07/24/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  251 thousand





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


LSI Logic - LSI - close: 11.35 change: +0.09 stop: 10.10

INTC fired up the chip-related stocks Friday morning when it
raised the Q3 revenue forecast range by 5 percent, but then
quenched the fire when the conference call began. Not much had
changed after all, with many commenting late in the day that this
back-to-school period always marks INTC's best quarter. LSI
traded a high of $11.88 early in the day, then dropped and
consolidated near its low for the rest of the day.

Even before the INTC statement Friday morning, the sector had
already been the recipient of much good news. Late this week,
chip-related stocks received a boost when JP Morgan raised
ratings on Lam Research (LRCX) and Varian Semiconductor Equipment
(VSEA), and Lehman raised its raising on the European chip
sector. Thursday, Intel's (INTC) CEO spoke at a conference in
Taiwan, saying that he was seeing some companies replace PC's
although he didn't yet feel comfortable characterizing the
increase as a turnaround.

Some market participants muttered that the recent gains made
chip-related stocks overpriced, however, and they appeared to be
quick to take profits today. Few doubt that a slow recovery has
begun, but some feel that recovery has already been priced into
the stocks.

Shares came very close to our target of $12.00 on Friday morning
but given the failed rally in the SOX, LSI and every other chip
stock we think it's time to close this play. At $11.35, LSI is
still up nearly 20 percent from our picked price so we're not
going to complain.

Picked on August 13 at 9.46
Change since picked:  +1.89
Earnings Date:     07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   4.5 million






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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-24-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 25th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of August 25th
==========================================


Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ACF    AmeriCredit Corp.     Mon, Aug 25  After the Bell      0.16
MCDTA  McDATA Corporation    Mon, Aug 25  After the Bell      0.07


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BMO    Bank Of Montreal      Tue, Aug 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
BNS    Bank of Nova Scotia   Tue, Aug 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
BNL    BUNZL PLC             Tue, Aug 26  Before the Bell      N/A
DLTR   Dollar Tree Stores    Tue, Aug 26  After the Bell      0.24
HRB    H&R Block, Inc.       Tue, Aug 26  After the Bell      0.01
HAR    Harman Intl Ind       Tue, Aug 26  -----N/A-----       1.02
MRX    Medicis               Tue, Aug 26  After the Bell      0.59
MBT    Mobile Telesystems    Tue, Aug 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
RGS    Regis Corporation     Tue, Aug 26  Before the Bell     0.50
RY     ROYAL BK CDA MONTREAL Tue, Aug 26  -----N/A-----        N/A
SMTC   Semtech               Tue, Aug 26  After the Bell      0.09
TKA    Telekom Austria AG    Tue, Aug 26  Before the Bell      N/A
TOL    Toll Brothers         Tue, Aug 26  Before the Bell     0.81
TTC    Toro                  Tue, Aug 26  Before the Bell     0.97


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BTH    Blyth Inc.            Wed, Aug 27  Before the Bell     0.22
BFb    Brown-Forman Corp     Wed, Aug 27  Before the Bell     0.66
CHS    Chico's FAS           Wed, Aug 27  After the Bell      0.26
COCO   Corinthian Colleges   Wed, Aug 27  Before the Bell     0.37
DCI    Donaldson             Wed, Aug 27  After the Bell      0.59
MIK    Michaels Stores       Wed, Aug 27  After the Bell      0.33
TECD   Tech Data Corporation Wed, Aug 27  -----N/A-----       0.36


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ACDO   Accredo Health        Thu, Aug 28  -----N/A-----       0.32
APOL   Apollo Group          Thu, Aug 28  Before the Bell     0.34
BHP    BHP Billiton Ltd      Thu, Aug 28  Before the Bell     0.13
DG     Dollar General Corp.  Thu, Aug 28  Before the Bell     0.14
OTE    Hellenic Telecom      Thu, Aug 28  Before the Bell      N/A
AHO    Koninklijke Ahold NV  Thu, Aug 28  -----N/A-----        N/A
PETM   PetsMart              Thu, Aug 28  Before the Bell     0.17
REXMY  REXAM PLC             Thu, Aug 28  Before the Bell      N/A
TD     Toronto Dominion Bank Thu, Aug 28  -----N/A-----        N/A
VIP    Vimpel Communications Thu, Aug 28  -----N/A-----        N/A
ZLC    Zale Corporation      Thu, Aug 28  Before the Bell     0.20


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

CECO    Career Education Corp     2:1      Aug  22nd   Aug  25th
FOBB    First Oak Brook Bancshares3:2      Aug  25th   Aug  26th
CELL    Brightpoint Inc           3:2      Aug  25th   Aug  26th
CBK     Christopher & Banks Corp  3:2      Aug  27th   Aug  28th
BER     W. R. Berkley Corp        3:2      Aug  27th   Aug  28th
EBAY    eBay                      2:1      Aug  28th   Aug  29th
JBHT    J.B. Hunt Transport Serv  2:1      Aug  29th   Sep   1st
RCII    Rent A Center             5:2      Aug  29th   Sep   1st
AFP     United Capital Corp       2:1      Aug  29th   Sep   1st
JCOM    J2 Global Communication   2:1      Aug  29th   Sep   1st
CHDX    Chindex International Inc 2:1      Sep   2nd   Sep   3rd
HOTT    Hot Topic Inc             3:2      Sep   2nd   Sep   3rd
PFB     PFF Bancorp Inc           7:5      Sep   5th   Sep   8th
RBKV    Resource Bankshares Corp  3:2      Sep   5th   Sep   8th
PSUN    Pacific Sunwear of CA Inc 3:2      Sep   5th   Sep   8th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Wall Street still has a few straggling earnings report but any
traders not on vacation will be watching a full week of economic
reports.  Home sales, consumer confidence, GDP, personal income
and spending, etc.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 08/25/03
----------------
Existing Home Sales(DM) Jul  Forecast:   5.90M  Previous:    5.83M


----------------
Tuesday, 08/26/03
----------------
Durable Orders (BB)     Jul  Forecast:    0.9%  Previous:     2.3%
Consumer Confidence(DM) Aug  Forecast:    79.7  Previous:     76.6
New Home Sales (DM)     Jul  Forecast:   1140K  Previous:    1160K


-------------------
Wednesday, 08/27/03
-------------------
None


------------------
Thursday, 08/28/03
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)   08/23  Forecast:    391K  Previous:     386K
GDP-Prel. (BB)           Q2  Forecast:    2.9%  Previous:     2.4%
Chain Deflator Prel.(BB) Q2  Forecast:    1.0%  Previous:     1.0%
Help Wanted Index (DM)  Jul  Forecast:      39  Previous:       38


----------------
Friday, 08/29/03
----------------
Personal Income (BB)    Jul  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.3%
Personal Spending (BB)  Jul  Forecast:    0.8%  Previous:     0.3%
Mich Sentiment-Rev.(DM) Aug  Forecast:    90.2  Previous:     90.2
Chicago PMI (DM)        Aug  Forecast:    55.8  Previous:     55.9


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MTD     Mettler Toledo Intl Inc    38.70     +0.75
FBN     Furniture Brands Intl      26.53     +0.57
MNC     Monaco Coach Corp          18.83     +0.98
TSA     Sports Authority Inc       31.50     +1.62
CETV    Central European Media     23.02     +0.82
AGM     Federal Agri Mtg CI C      27.95     +1.70
SGMA    Sigmatron International Inc19.50     +1.50


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ADSK    Autodesk Inc               17.67     +1.46
SRNA    Srena Software Inc         18.77     +2.68
TIVO    Tivo Inc                   10.91     +1.21
CYD     China Yuchai Int Ltd       17.17     +1.23


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

ADI     Analog Devices Inc         41.51     +1.01
SYMC    Symantec Corp              54.74     +1.52
MRVL    Marvell Technology Group   41.69     +3.33
CBE     Cooper Industires Inc      50.90     +1.96
JWN     Nordstrom Inc              25.07     +1.07
IMDC    Inamed Corporation         70.64     +3.52
ELBO    Electronics Boutique Hld   31.63     +2.82


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

BAC     Bank of America Corp       78.38     -2.61
UBS     UBS Ag Ord. Shares         54.74     -1.28
BDX     Becton Dickinson & Co      36.08     -1.27
FCX     Freeport Mcmoran C&G       27.28     -1.75
ANT     Anteon Intl Corp           29.92     -3.32
CBK     Christopher & Banks Corp   40.63     -2.37


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

ELUX    Electrolux Ab (ADR)        42.43     -0.74
ABK     Ambac Financial Group      64.30     -1.17
NYT     New York Times Co          44.36     -0.17
BCR     C.R. Bard Inc              67.54     -1.67
RMD     Resmed Inc                 42.47     -0.93
FR      First Industrial Rlty      29.95     -0.33
ISCA    International Speedway Corp39.09     -1.05




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