PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 08-27-2003 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: -------------- Market Wrap: Technology Crawls Higher Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 08-27-2003 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9333.79 - 6.66 9346.98 9306.49 1.28 bln 797/ 976 NASDAQ 1782.13 + 11.48 1783.12 1764.63 1.34 bln 447/ 316 S&P 100 498.73 + 1.07 500.02 492.75 Totals 1244/1292 S&P 500 996.79 + 0.06 998.05 993.33 RUS 2000 490.92 + 4.41 491.44 485.91 DJ TRANS 2632.63 - 4.07 2637.37 2622.90 VIX 20.34 + 0.01 21.07 20.28 VXN 30.05 + 0.71 31.52 29.41 Total Volume 2,794M Total UpVol 1,902M Total DnVol 824M 52wk Highs 368 52wk Lows 49 TRIN 0.92 PUT/CALL 1.08 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Technology Crawls Higher by James Brown It was a lethargic day on Wall Street. Major market indices barely budged. A lack of economic reports today and potential apprehension for the reports coming out tomorrow and Friday could have put investors on the defensive. Of course that's assuming there were any investors paying attention with so many financial professionals on vacation. Volume continues to be light on Wall Street and it's only going to get lighter as we approaching the Labor Holiday weekend. Financials seemed to feel the brunt of the selling but the damage was meager for the BIX and BKX indices. Tech stocks took the opportunity to inch higher fueled by a round of upgrades for the semiconductor sector. The SOX index lead the way with a 2.95% gain closing just under 450. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Harris Nesbitt Gerard all upgraded specific chip stocks. Following the SOX higher was the DDX disk drive index, GHA hardware index, NWX networking index, GSO software index and even the INX Internet index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly split down the middle with 13 winners and 16 losers led lower by SBC Communications, Johnson and Johnson and 3M. The $INDU closed down less than 7 points near 9333. Meanwhile the NASDAQ Composite inched higher to close up about eleven and a half points at 1782. The S&P 500 remains almost unchanged at 996. Not helping the mood of the markets were small losses across the Pacific in the Asian exchanges but these were countered by small gains in their European counterparts. Market internals reflected a slightly different story with advancing issues outpacing decliners by 16 to 11 on the NYSE and 18 to 11 on the NASDAQ. New highs were growing again with 271 swallowing the 16 new lows between the two exchanges. Up volume bested down volume as well, indicating that despite recent statements from Wall Street pundits, the path of least resistance may be up. Optimists will note that we continue to see money move into small caps as the Russell 2000 index added another five points on top of its recent rebound. Chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average: Chart of the NASDAQ Composite: It certainly felt like the market was asleep but technology bulls took advantage of the slumbering bears to drive all of the tech- related indices higher. Other indices making gains were the DFI defense index and the RLX retail index. Last night Sears came out with positive comments saying August sales were doing better than expected. Plus traders saw Dollar Tree (DLTR) add almost four percent after beating earnings estimates and raising guidance. However, probably the most impressive gain was the XAU gold & silver index. The XAU added 4.3 percent to close at 91.34. Aside from some intraday highs in September of 1999, today is the best closing high since April of 1998. If the XAU can close above 93.50 it will be the best close since October of 1997. With the markets in a lull before the holiday and the end of week economic reports financial media turned their spotlight on Richard Grasso, Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. Grasso has been with the company for 36 years and just signed a new agreement to extend his contract by two more years to 2007 paying him a base salary of $1.4 million and an annual bonus of at least $1 million. No one argues that he is richly paid but what shocked and alarmed some investors and industry professionals was the $140 million that the NYSE just paid Grasso. The exchange said the $140 million was Grasso's accrued savings, retirement benefits and incentive awards. I imagine there are plenty of people in line to interview for that job when he decides to retire. Traders need to be careful as we endure Thursday and Friday's sessions. Tomorrow, before the bell, will be the weekly unemployment claims. Wall Street is looking for a slight increase to 390,000 and hopes if there is an upside surprise it remains below the 400,000 mark. We'll also get the Q2 GDP numbers. Actually, it's just the revision of the Q2 GDP numbers, which came in at +2.4%. That was a lot higher than the +1.4% expectation. There appears to be some disagreement on whether the revision will be up or down. Tomorrow will also reveal the latest help wanted index readings. Friday, if anyone is still paying attention and not packing the car for a weekend getaway, will produce the Personal Income and Spending numbers before the opening bell. During Friday's session we'll hear the Michigan Sentiment report and the Chicago PMI index result. There are not a lot of reasons to be buying stocks ahead of the weekend when most investors will be waiting to hear from these various economic reports. Trade carefully. ================= Trading Ideas ================= This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PBR Petroleo Brasileiro SA 21.48 +0.68 HRB H&R Block Inc 43.15 +1.41 WEN Wendy's International Inc 31.33 +1.84 BVN Compania De Minas Buena 38.42 +1.87 BTH Blyth Inc 27.92 +0.74 OSG Overseas Shipholding Group 24.95 +0.77 DCEL Dobson Communications A 8.19 +0.81 OPSW Opsware Inc 6.46 +0.60 JASA Jo-Ann Stores Inc 29.98 +1.00 IPSU Imperial Sugar Company 11.00 +0.99 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- PMCS PMC-Sierra Inc 14.05 +1.09 CY Cypress Semiconductor 18.13 +1.39 FCS Fairchild Semiconductor 16.97 +2.01 CMNT Computer Network Tech 7.60 +1.02 FARO FARO Technologies Inc 11.88 +1.72 CFI CULP Inc 8.28 +1.28 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- QCOM Qualcomm Inc 41.00 +1.40 CL Colgate-Palmolive Co 55.35 +1.44 ITU Banco Itau S A (ADR) 38.79 +2.07 RSH Radioshack Corp 29.09 +1.13 DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc 38.70 +1.47 HAR Harman International Ind 93.63 +2.38 LF Leapfrog Enterprises Inc 36.95 +2.60 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CAH Cardinal Health Inc 56.72 -1.03 APOL Apollo Group Inc CI A 60.52 -1.31 ABC Amerisouthbergen Corp 56.20 -1.45 STRA Strayer Education Inc 92.85 -2.33 HUG Hughes Supply Inc 36.81 -1.97 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- None ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 08-27-2003 section 2 of 2 Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Tech Stocks Bullish Play Updates: COHU Active Trader (Non-tech) New Bullish Plays: WPI New Bearish Plays: STJ Bullish Play Updates: GOLD Bearish Play Updates: ABC, C Closed Bearish Plays: HCA High Risk/Reward New Bullish Plays: QCOM Bullish Play Updates: TWR ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Cohu, Inc. - COHU - close: 21.45 change: +0.38 - stop: 19.49 All week, firms have been upgrading semi-related stocks. Monday Soundview raised its total on many techs, focusing on semi and semi-related companies. Wednesday, Bear Stearns and Lehman added a few. While we didn't find COHU mentioned among those stocks, we hope that this semi-equipment maker will benefit from the upgrades, too. Earlier in the week, that didn't appear to be the case. COHU retreated below the ascending trendline that had been capping its movements for more than a year, a trendline that also marked the neckline of its inverse H&S formation. COHU found support at $21.00, however, and began climbing again, today closing either on that trendline or a little above it, depending on how thickly the trendline is drawn. RSI cups back up again and MACD remains strong. We think COHU may have some backing and filling to do yet, but we do like the way that the 10- and 21-dma's rise quickly. Once they rise beneath the price to provide support, we hope to see COHU move up again and trigger our play. Annotated Chart for COHU: Picked on Aug 24 at 21.80 Change since picked: -0.35 Earnings Date: 07/26/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 154 thousand ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Watson Pharma. - WPI - close: 40.74 change: +1.05 - stop: 38.69 Company Description: Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc., headquartered in Corona, CA, is a leading specialty pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures, markets and distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical products. Watson pursues a growth strategy combining internal product development, strategic alliances and collaborations and synergistic acquisitions of products and businesses. (Source: Company Press Release.) Why We Like It: WPI's earnings release was initially met with selling. After the selling was done, investors focused on WPI's increased sales rather than the earnings, brought lower by comparisons that included a year-ago gain from a legal settlement. The last several weeks, WPI announced several developments concerning new generic drugs in its pipeline. Together with Mylan Laboratories, WPI gained FDA acceptance for the resubmission of a new drug application for an antidepressant patch, and also asked the FDA to approve a copycat form of PFE's Glucotrol XL tablet for adult- onset diabetes. A competitor, ADRX, has already gained tentative approval for its generic form of the drug. When we turned to WPI's chart, we noticed interesting developments there, too. WPI had been trading in a descending channel since retreating from its June high, but this week, it found support at its grouped 10-, 21-, and 50-dma's. Wednesday, it sprang above the top of the regression channel and also moved and closed above $40.00, a key psychological level. We think it's ready to challenge that June high again and perhaps move up to $46.00. Wednesday's slightly higher-than-average daily volume encouraged us, too, because volume tended to be anemic across the markets. WPI's 2.65 percent gain also topped the 0.12 percent rise of the $DRG, the Pharmaceutical Index. We note that stochastics and RSI appear bullish, and that MACD is pushing above zero again after a brief sojourn below that level. We're setting our stop at $38.69, just beneath those grouped moving averages and last week's consolidation. WPI did push up against its upper Bollinger band (not shown) in Wednesday's trading, a Bollinger band that has not yet turned up, so it's possible that the price could retreat back to test the top of that regression channel again before it resumes climbing. Entries could be taken at the current price or at a pullback and bounce anywhere above $39.75. One caution arises when studying the P&F chart. WPI's recent retreat created a double bottom breakdown P&F sell signal and the stock remains beneath its bearish resistance line, now just ahead at $42.00. Although a trade at $41.00 will reverse WPI into a "X" column, indicating at least short-term strength, cautious traders might want to wait until WPI has moved above that bearish resistance line before considering an entry. Annotated Chart for WPI: Picked on Aug 27 at 40.74 Change since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date: 08/05/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 51.80 change: -1.78 stop: 55.15 Company Description: St. Jude Medical is engaged in the development, manufacturing and distribution of medical technology products for the cardiac rhythm management, cardiology and vascular access and cardiac surgery markets. The company has two principal business segments, Cardiac Rhythm Management (CRM) and Cardiac Surgery (CS). The CRM division is focused on bradycardia pulse generator and tachycardia implantable cardioverter defibrillator systems, interventional cardiology catheters and vascular closure devices. The CS group provides mechanical and tissue heart valves and valve repair products as well as suture-free devices to facilitate coronary artery bypass operations. Why we like it: Following a sharp selloff in June and July, shares of STJ finally managed to find support near $48 and rebounded back to the $54 level late last month. After struggling near that level, the stock gave an apparent breakout move over the $56 level, that was just as quickly reversed, leading to another 2 weeks of consolidation near the $54 level. If that sounds like symmetry, you've got it nailed. Over the past month, STJ has traced out a nearly perfect Head & Shoulders pattern with the head at $56.75 and the neckline near $53 for a difference of $3.75. That would make the downside objective from the pattern only $49.25, and from today's close just under $52, it hardly seems worth the effort. But keep in mind that is just a minimum price objective, and we think the price is going to fall significantly lower, due in large part to the bearish picture portrayed on the PnF chart. With STJ back in a column of O's and on a Sell signal with a bearish price target of $46, suddenly we have a better risk/reward proposition. In reality, there may be some support found near $47, as that is near the 200-dma ($47.67), as well as the current site of the PnF bullish support line. A near-term rebound back to test the broken neckline at $53 would be the ideal entry situation, with the 10-dma ($53.66) and 20-dma ($54.02) bearing down to reinforce that resistance. We're not real excited about chasing the stock lower at this point, as price is pressing right against the lower Bollinger band, but for those of you willing to take the risk, the trigger would be a trade under $51.75, today's intraday low. We're initially placing our stop at $54.60, just above last Friday's intraday high, as well as the 50-dma ($54.42). There could be some support found near the psychological $50 level, as it provided resistance on the way up in April, and then there's potential support near the $49 level, both from the July closing lows and the H&S downside target. We're recommending that conservative traders target a move down to the 200-dma, while those with a greater tolerance for bounce risk can look for a move down to the $46 target from the PnF chart. Annotated Chart of STJ: Picked on August 27th at $51.80 Change since picked +0.00 Earnings Date 10/15/03 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 2.18 mln ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Randgold - GOLD - close: 24.14 change: +1.96 - stop: 21.49 This week, GOLD joined ANGJ in the bidding for Ashanti Goldfields, but GOLD's 8.84 percent climb on Wednesday could probably be better attributed to the climb seen in gold and the gold miners than to specific developments within GOLD. The HUI ramped up 6.12 percent. While it's been tempting to raise our trigger and difficult to see an almost 9 percent gain slip away, we do note that gold struggles with the $374 level, and feel that our $24.50 trigger coordinates well with gold's possible breakout of its symmetrical triangle. GOLD seems prepared to lead the way, breaking above resistance again Wednesday after pulling back earlier in the week. Tuesday, it had tested its 10-dma, but sprang up from that moving average. RSI turned back up and the stochastics look as it they're trying to do so, too, although from territory indicating overbought conditions. GOLD has been trending, however, and stochastics are not always a reliable tool in a trending market. GOLD and gold look ripe for either a breakout or another pullback. We may need to wait until traders return from summer vacations next week to prod both equity markets and gold out of the recent range-bound trading. GOLD's activity of late hints at the direction gold will take, at least. Annotated Chart for GOLD: Picked on Aug 24 at 23.40 Change since picked: +0.74 Earnings Date: 08/12/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 360 thousand -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- AmerisourceBergen - ABC - cls: 56.20 chng: -1.45 stop: 60.50*new* It may have been a lackluster day in the broad markets, but that didn't stop the bears from once again leaning on shares of ABC. Following yesterday's drop to new multi-month lows, the stock opened just below $58 on Wednesday and slid sharply lower in the opening hour, finding support near $56.50. Then after holding near that level throughout the day, the stock once again weakened into the close, ending just above the low of the day. Confirming the strength of this downward move, volume surged to more than double the daily average, and despite the fact that daily Stochastics are now oversold and price is pressing against the lower Bollinger band, it looks like there is more downside in store. But with price now resting on the PnF chart's bullish support line, a near-term rebound seems likely. A near-term rebound back into the $58.00-58.50 area should find stiff resistance with reinforcement coming from the 200-dma, now at $59.01. A failure of that rebound would make for an excellent entry into the play, with our stop now lowered to $60.50, just above both the 20-dma ($60.37) and the intraday highs from last Thursday and Friday. Our downside target remains $54 and a decline to that level should be used for harvesting accrued gains. Picked on August 10th at $60.00 Change since picked -3.80 Earnings Date 10/23/03 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 1.39 mln --- Citigroup, Inc. - C - close: 42.96 change: -0.35 stop: 45.75 The KBW Bank index (BKX.X) is still holding above the neckline ($854) of its Head & Shoulders pattern and that more than anything seems to be helping C to avoid breaking down from its own H&S pattern. C's neckline can be placed in the $42.00-42.50 area, and so far the stock has been finding support just above that area all week. With price holding above that level and daily Stochastics bottoming out in oversold territory, a near- term bounce seems likely, making the most favorable entry point be a failed rally near $44, which is both historical resistance, as well as the site of the declining 10-dma ($43.95) and 20-dma ($44.07) More conservative traders will want to wait for the break under $42, which will also create that PnF Sell signal on the unconventional 0.5-point box size chart. Once the neckline of the H&S pattern is broken, then we'll have a measuring objective of $36 based on the H&S pattern and $38 from the PnF chart. So the conservative approach will be to exit on a rebound from the $38 area, while more aggressive traders can hold on for an eventual decline to $36. If entering on a breakdown of the H&S pattern, look for confirmation from the BKX breaking its own H&S neckline. Maintain stops at $45.75 Picked on August 24th at $43.10 Change since picked -0.14 Earnings Date 10/13/03 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 13.4 mln ============ CLOSED PLAYS ============ -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Healthcare Co. - HCA - close: 37.50 change: +0.39 - stop: 37.51 Monday, HCA competitor HMA agreed to buy five hospitals from Tenet Healthcare, with some of the hospitals giving HMA its first presence in Missouri. HMA started climbing Monday, and HCA climbed right along beside its competitor. While it's possible that HMA's plans engendered positive feelings toward all stocks in the sector, we attribute HCA's gains to another factor. Tuesday, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced that it had bought 10 million shares of HCA in June. HCA climbed Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Wednesday, HCA had climbed past our $37.51 stop by about 11:15 ET. Although HCA had declined below our stop again by the day's close, the week's gains had turned the RSI and stochastics back up again from mid-fall. Wednesday's gains were accomplished on greater-than-average daily volume on a day when the volume across the indices proved anemic. Picked on Aug 15 at 36.64 Change since picked: +0.86 Earnings Date: 07/22/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Qualcomm - QCOM - close: 41.00 change: +1.54 - stop: 37.99 Company Description: QUALCOMM Incorporated (www.qualcomm.com) is a leader in developing and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. Headquartered in San Diego, Calif., QUALCOMM is included in the S&P 500 Index and is a 2003 FORTUNE 500(R) company traded on The Nasdaq Stock Market(R) under the ticker symbol QCOM. (Source: Company Press Release.) Why We Like It: It's been a long time since we've heard the distinctive echoing voice repeating "Qualcomm" on CNBC, but perhaps it's time for the canned voice to be resurrected. QCOM's stock appears to have been. The P&F chart proves the case, with a new quadruple top breakout accomplished on Wednesday's trade above $40.00 and then $41.00. QCOM's original P&Fs buy signal promises upside to $58.00, but we're not going to follow it that far. We're basing this play on technical considerations, and the bar chart also shows interesting developments. QCOM's move on Wednesday bumped it above the neckline of an inverse H&S that has been building since December. The upside target of that inverse H&S lies at about $50. Our target is $49.50, just shy of that $50.00 mark. As QCOM moves up, it will cross through several congestion zones, so we anticipate some backing and filling along the way. MACD appears strong. Although both RSI and 21(3)3 stochastics measure overbought conditions, they can stay pinned at those levels in a strongly trending market, and this appears to be one. Watch the Networking Index, the NWX, close to giving its own P&F buy signal, and the Nasdaq Telecommunications Index, the $IXTC. The $IXTC remains on a sell signal and is below its bearish resistance line, but is close to reversing into an "X" column. Annotated Chart for QCOM: Picked on Aug 27 at 41.00 Change since picked: +1.54 Earnings Date: 07/23/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 10 million ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Tower Automotive - TWR - close: 4.18 change: +0.04 stop: 3.75 After an encouraging start, our TWR play has run into stiff resistance near the $4.20 level and the stock has been consolidating near that level for the past week, with one brief foray up near $4.40. At the same time, intraday support seems to be building in the vicinity of the converged 10-dma ($4.07) and 50-dma ($4.06). Intraday dips and rebounds from above the $4.00 level look favorable for new entries, while those looking to enter on strength will need to wait for a push back over $4.25, preferably on strong volume. Speaking of volume, it has been virtually nonexistent in TWR this week, running only about a third of the ADV. It may be that we'll have to wait until after the long weekend for volume to come back in, and that means the best approach for new entries this week is to buy the dips. We're still targeting a near-term move to $4.80, with an outside chance of a push up to the $5.00. Taking an exit from the play in that $4.80-5.00 area remains our recommended strategy. Maintain stops at $3.75. Picked on August 10th at $4.10 Change since picked +0.08 Earnings Date 10/21/03 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 559 K ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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