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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 08/28/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 08-28-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Showdown at Jackson Hole
Watch List:       UOPX, HAR, TGT, CR and more!
Market Sentiment: Q2 GDP on fire!

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      08-28-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9374.21 + 40.40  9392.59  9261.57 1.41 bln   2192/ 978
NASDAQ   1800.18 + 18.10  1800.65  1772.98 1.44 bln   1942/1225
S&P 100   501.24 +  2.51   502.07   495.90   Totals   4134/2203
S&P 500  1002.84 +  6.05  1004.12   991.42
W5000    9719.88 + 68.20  9728.74  9603.52
RUS 2000  495.81 +  4.89   495.81   487.90
DJ TRANS 2668.45 + 35.80  2672.05  2629.65
VIX        19.93 -  0.41    21.31    19.81
VXN        30.31 +  0.26    31.47    30.13
Total Volume 3,058M
Total UpVol  2,223M
Total DnVol    763M
52wk Highs  554
52wk Lows    37
TRIN       0.85
NAZTRIN    0.57
PUT/CALL   0.61
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========


Showdown at Jackson Hole

The markets displayed a bipolar personality on Thursday as
traders prepared to get the lowdown at the showdown. Greenspan
speaks on Friday morning on Monetary Policy and Uncertainty and
by all accounts this will be a pivotal speech. Bond traders are
ticked about the hide and seek game that sent bonds to a 45
year high and then no follow through from the Fed. Analysts
expect Greenspan to clearly lay out the plan for future policy
and a failure to do that could be very negative. Word games
are history, they want to hear some hard policy.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


S&P Chart


The day started out positive with Jobless Claims rising +3000
to 394,000. One more week below 400,000 but only barely. The
four-week moving average rose to 396,250 and continuing claims
rose +26,000 to 3.657 million. The headline number was lower
than I expected after the blackout but we are still two weeks
away from the week I expect to reflect the true numbers. The
week ending 9/12 would be the first week after the Labor Day
holiday marks an end to summer. It is the "back to work" bell
and those putting off the task will have to punch the alarm
and trudge off to the employment office to begin the hunt
again. While the Labor Dept claimed there was no impact due to
the blackout last week, they revised that number up +5,000 to
391,000 this week due to the blackout.

The most surprising report for the day was the GDP for the 2Q.
It was revised up to +3.1% from +2.4% when everyone expected
a major downward revision. The revision was due to higher
consumer spending than was previously expected at +3.8%.
Corporate profits were up +10.8% and the 3rd consecutive
quarterly gain. Durable goods consumption rose to 24.1% from
22.6% in the first estimate. Inventories fell -$20.9 billion,
down from the prior estimate of -$17.9 billion. The inventory
drop was attributed to fear of a lingering war and the impact
on the economy. It is likely this drop in inventories is what
prompted the bounce in the July economic numbers as that
pipeline was replenished after the quick war and the victory
over SARS. This is a very bullish report and shows an economy
that is growing much faster than previously thought. The only
problem is it reflects the second quarter and we are nearing
the end of the third. With all the cautious comments out of
the tech companies it is not clear if this bounce has legs
or it has already run its course.

Supporting the GDP view was the Chicago Fed National Activity
Index which came in at -0.20 and much improved over the -0.32
in June. This was the third consecutive monthly improvement
but it is still moving very slowly and indicates a below
normal growth trend. Employment was the major laggard and
continues to decline at 6.2%.

The most negative report for the day was the Monthly Mass
Layoffs which showed there were 2,087 mass layoffs which will
put 226,435 employees out of work. With the announcements in
July the layoffs will normally occur over the next 90 days.
That puts us right in the middle of the actual job cuts now.
We will see what real impact this has when the Nonfarm Payrolls
are announced next Friday. As usual manufacturing bore the
brunt of the pain with -136,410 job losses. This was up
from only -40,845 in June. The headline number at 226K was
an increase of nearly 70,000 over the June numbers. State
and local governments were responsible for 7% of the job cuts
as the local budgets are still recoiling from the bubble in
tax income. The economy will continue to grow slowly with a
constant loss of jobs and rising unemployment. You must have
a paycheck to consume more than basic necessities. Forrester
Research said they saw 3.5 million white-collar jobs leaving
the US over the next ten years with the primary beneficiary
being India. This is above the 10 million blue-collar jobs
expected to flow out of country in the same period. Tough
to pay $20 an hr in the US when you can pay $1 an hour
overseas with far fewer taxes and benefits.

Getting a job is still a challenge with the Help Wanted Index
still flat at 38 and only barely improved from its May low
of 35. The labor markets are not showing any increase in
hiring and the headline number is still six points below the
July numbers from 2002 when employment was terrible. While
the hiring may have bottomed in May it is not growing and it
could set a stage for a greater than 6.2% unemployment number
next week. The Jobs Report has shown six consecutive months
of job losses, nearly -500,000, and the estimates are for a
minimal gain of +10,000 in August. I find that hard to believe
but analysts are hugging the unchanged line so they can be
close to right either way it goes. If the Jobs Report were
to show a large negative OR a large positive it would directly
impact the current market sentiment in a big way. We are
priced for perfection as they like to say.

Friday will be focused entirely on the Greenspan speech despite
a flood of economic reports. We have PMI, NY-NAPM, Personal
Income, Risk of Recession and Michigan Sentiment again. All
but the PMI are before the open. The speech is at 10:EDT and
we will probably get the script a few minutes ahead of the
intro. Greenspan has typically used this particular speech
to explain why he has made the decisions in the past and what
decisions we can expect in the future. Considering the concern
over his head fake on bonds earlier this year and the resulting
implosion he will be hard pressed to prove he is in control
of anything but his personal checkbook. This is why analysts
think we could see fireworks. This is his best chance to
seize control once again or go down in flames for what could
be his final fling. There are rumors that he could be replaced
when his term is over due to the lingering impact of the stock
market implosion. Surpluses turned to deficits and retirement
accounts were decimated. The rumor is that Bush may want to
cut the ties to Greenspan's handling of the event and put a
new horse on the hot seat. Ball is in your court, Alan. Art
Cashin said on Thursday that if Alan disappoints traders will
be fleeing the market in planes, trains, buses, taxis and
any other vehicle they can find to escape the carnage. That
may have been an overstatement based on Thursday's performance.

Impacting our markets on Thursday was any lingering end of
month rebalancing or posturing and we had a couple serious
buy and sell programs. The first sell program hit at 9350
and knocked the Dow back to nearly 9250 before it expired.
The bounce was not immediate but two buy programs at 11:10
and 12:35 managed to push the index back the 9340 level where
it hit a wall for the rest of the afternoon. The Nasdaq broke
out of its 1782 resistance at the open and despite the early
sell program it rebounded back over that level very quickly.
The S&P was fighting a different battle and after hitting
the electric fence at 1000 on the initial bounce it struggled
all day to return to that level. Strong resistance at 998
kept the lid on it, at least until 3:PM.

Once the bond market closed at the high of the day the stock
market exploded past resistance on strong volume. At least
strong for a pre holiday Thursday. The Nasdaq led the charge
and shot up to close at 1800 and a 17 month high. The rest
of the indexes were dragged higher by the tech strength. The
S&P hit 1004 and closed very near to that high. The Dow
finally broke over the 9340 resistance and ended at 9382 and
very close to the 9392 high. This was a very bullish reversal
of the decline that began last Friday at 9500. The Dow fell
to 9233, a -267 point drop from the high and has now retraced
back to 9382. Very bullish when you remember what season we
are in. After the closing rally we are priced even more to
perfection considering the Friday events ahead of us.

After the close we got mid quarter updates from chip companies
NVLS and IDTI. NVLS affirmed estimates with no increase but
said they were going to take a $70 million charge to write
down excess inventory. The market did not like the concept
of inline affirmation and excess inventory and the stock lost
$1 in after hours. IDTI affirmed estimates and said revenues
would be flat to down -4%. They also lost ground in after hours.
Ironically, even after a record day the Nasdaq futures barely
even blinked. The SOX has soared back over 450 from its 425
low on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see what happens to
it tomorrow. There is a good chance there will be some short
covering at the open if Europe/Asia rallies on our performance.
If so then we could break 1800 with volume and cause yet
another wave of gains before Greenspan even begins speaking.
The short interest on the Nasdaq is huge with most professional
traders and institutions betting on the historical August
and September decline. The bears are going crazy and tomorrow
should push them a little farther over the edge. Do they
cover at the open or wait and hope Greenspan eats his foot
and the market tanks. Tough riding on the bleeding edge and
if you are short in front of this market you are bleeding.

The bottom line for tomorrow. It all depends on Greenspan
and the betting line is he better have a grandstand
performance or we could see some strong weakness. How long
that weakness lasts is another matter. The day after Labor
Day has been up seven of the last eight years. Do you think
the bulls are betting on another repeat and the bears are
staying out of the way? Could be. Buy the dips until the
trend changes but be aware it could change at any moment.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

University of Phoenix Online - UOPX - close: 64.50 change: +5.17

WHAT TO WATCH: We keep wondering when this bullish run in the
Education stocks is going to end, and they keep breaking out to
new highs, driven by the reality that more and more people are
trying to retool for the changing and ever more challenging job
market.  UOPX pulled back over the past week and then blasted
sharply higher on Thursday, largely due to the strong guidance
provided by fellow education company APOL.  We don't like the
idea of chasing such a strong move, but a pullback and rebound
from the $61-62 area looks good for an entry into this well-
established trend.




---

Harmon International Ind. - HAR - close: 96.99 change: +3.36

WHAT TO WATCH: Will it never end?  HAR has been on a high-volume
ramp for the past 3 days as the shorts are getting creamed and
rushing to cover.  On Tuesday, the company handily beat
estimates, and yesterday CSFB raised their target to $105.  This
ramp can't go on forever and with the stock up nearly $10 in the
past 3 days, we certainly don't want to chase it.  But a pullback
near $94 might make for a nice continuation entry for those that
like to live on the edge.  The better entry would be on a drop
and consolidation near $90, but judging by the heavy buying
volume, that doesn't appear likely in the near term.




---

Target Corp. - TGT - close: 40.22 change: +1.10

WHAT TO WATCH: We've looked at TGT here in the not-so-distant
past, as it has been consolidating near $40 for the past two
months.  With the Retail index (RLX.X) still surging to new
yearly highs, TGT is starting to poke through that $40 barrier
and this looks like a good point to climb aboard.  Intraday dips
near $39 may provide a slightly better entry.  While there's some
resistance near $42, we're looking for the stock to climb to
stronger resistance at $44, with an outside chance at a run
towards the 2002 highs at $46.




---

Crane Co. - CR - close: 25.55 change: +0.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Nobody will mistake this for an exciting stock,
but sometimes dependability is better.  CR has been working
higher in an ascending channel for nearly 5 months and the dip
and rebound from the 20-dma (also the bottom of the channel) this
week looks like a favorable entry point.  The stock isn't a fast
mover, but looks like it could work higher to the $28 area, where
there is solid resistance from last April and May.




---


===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

GPS $20.28 - It has been a long road, but Retailer GPS is
steadily working its way out of the abyss into which it plunged
in the fall of 2001.  Today's breakout over $20 seems to pave the
way for a rally up to next strong resistance near $23.  So long
as the Retail index (RLX.X) continues to march to new yearly
highs, look for GPS to continue its recover, with dip buyers
likely to gain the most favorable entries.

CC $10.15 - Continuing to recover from its slide to below $5
earlier this year, CC is on the verge of breaking above some
major resistance and increasing volume indicates that move could
come soon.  A rally through $10.60 will have the stock moving
solidly into the gap left behind last October and we could see a
fairly quick (at least compared to the last several months) move
through that gap up to the $15 level, with a possible pause near
$13.  Wait for the breakout before playing.

NBR $40.43 - Oil stocks are on the move higher again and NBR is
certainly joining in the party.  After breaking out of its bull
flag in early August, the stock has been rising steadily in what
looks like a rising channel.  This week's dip and rebound from
above the 200-dma looks constructive, and we're looking for a
move back to $45 resistance within that rising channel over the
next few weeks.



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Q2 GDP on fire!
- J Brown

Today was all about the GDP numbers and the jobless claims
report.  The Q2 GDP numbers were revised upward from a +2.4% pace
to a much higher +3.1%.  This helped ease many fears that the
economy may not be improving fast enough.  Contributing to the
positive economic news was the weekly jobless claims report that
came in below the pivotal 400,000 level.  Economists had been
expecting a small bounce and they got it, +3,000 to 394,000
jobless claims.  Both reports came out before the opening bell
and despite the positive indications the markets tanked early in
the session. Fortunately, there was a lack of follow through and
the markets managed a steady rebound despite the lack volume
ahead of the Labor day weekend.

As far as investor sentiment, the VIX and VXN continue to read at
very low and dangerous levels but the slow drift up in the
markets appears to be the most damaging to the bears.  I looked
at several hundred charts today and the overwhelming theme was
bullish with several fresh breakouts or bounces from previous
resistance.  Now everyone knows we're approaching September and
you've heard multiple times how it is traditionally the worst
month of the year.  Well, August is typically a pretty poor month
for the markets and thus far the major indices are going to close
it with a gain so September may turn out to be a surprise as
well.

The minefield that investors will need to navigate is the
numerous mid-quarter corporate reports set to come out in
September.  The biggest landmine of all may be Greenspan's
appearance tomorrow in Wyoming, which Jim covers in more detail
on the wrap this evening.  Trade carefully and watch those stops.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9499
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9374

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9369
 50-dma: 9191
200-dma: 8607

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1015
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1002

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  994
 50-dma:  990
200-dma:  918

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1342
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1332

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1302
 50-dma: 1258
200-dma: 1114


-----------------------------------------------------------------


The VIX and VXN continue to drift lower just as the markets drift
higher.  While we know it's dangers to trade with the markets at
extremes there is nothing to prevent these reading from becoming
more extreme.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.93 -0.41
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 30.31 +0.26

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.61        494,942       302,766
Equity Only    0.49        418,387       206,314
OEX            1.07         12,931        13,871
QQQ             .83         80,191        67,117


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          70.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    74.0    + 1     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       77.6    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       82.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.98
10-Day Arms Index  0.94
21-Day Arms Index  0.96
55-Day Arms Index  1.06


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1929      1855
Decliners     866      1184

New Highs     143       177
New Lows        6         6

Up Volume   1020M     1062M
Down Vol.    353M      372M

Total Vol.  1400M     1449M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/19/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

There is nothing eye opening to report in the large S&P futures
contracts today.  Commercials remain slight more short than long
and small traders are significantly long the market.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/29/03      405,429   445,114   (39,685)   (4.7%)
08/05/03      395,633   450,988   (55,353)   (6.5%)
08/12/03      399,414   456,767   (57,353)   (6.7%)
08/19/03      404,665   455,381   (50,716)   (5.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03      155,216    73,030    82,186    36.0%
08/05/03      159,971    72,951    87,020    37.4%
08/12/03      158,821    71,040    87,781    38.2%
08/19/03      162,034    87,064    74,970    30.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Meanwhile for the e-mini contracts commercial traders are
still net long.  Small traders are still net short but we
saw a big increase in long positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/29/03      272,659   216,166     56,493    11.6%
08/05/03      310,662   249,004     61,658    11.0%
08/12/03      306,014   217,233     88,781    17.0%
08/19/03      296,971   235,779     61,192    11.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   88,781   - 08/12/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       44,437    93,144   (48,707)  (35.4%)
08/05/03       56,663    95,919   (39,256)  (25.7%)
08/12/03       62,534   106,403   (43,869)  (26.0%)
08/19/03       90,428   125,980   (35,552)  (16.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (48,707)  - 07/29/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Hmm... interesting development here.  Commercial traders
are still net short the NDX so that's not a surprise but
the extreme just brushed a new "high" so to speak.  Retail
traders are still net long but there was a big bump in
short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       31,456     50,294   (18,838) (23.0%)
08/05/03       32,813     52,383   (19,570) (23.0%)
08/12/03       34,374     53,015   (18,641) (21.3%)
08/19/03       32,107     53,665   (21,558) (25.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,558)  - 08/19/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       25,691     7,810    17,881    53.4%
08/05/03       22,188     7,783    14,405    48.1%
08/12/03       23,957     7,871    16,086    50.5%
08/19/03       25,607    10,134    15,473    43.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Wow!  We see a big change in sentiment by the commercial
traders in the DJ futures.  Short positions doubled indicating
a growing expectation that the market could rollover.
Right on cue the retail trader is picking the wrong direction
and more than doubled their long positions while slashing
their shorts.  This sort of extreme flip-flop would indicate
a market reversal in the making.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/29/03       23,696     9,572   14,124      42.5%
08/05/03       23,981     9,264   14,717      44.3%
08/12/03       24,942     9,878   15,064      43.3%
08/19/03       21,088    18,984    2,104       5.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/29/03        5,744    11,601   (5,857)   (33.8%)
08/05/03        5,716    10,422   (4,706)   (29.2%)
08/12/03        6,933    13,248   (6,315)   (31.3%)
08/19/03       15,717     9,143    6,574     26.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   6,574  -  8/19/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------





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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 08-28-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Play of the Day:     Shining Brightly

Stop-Loss Adjustments: GOLD

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Play-of-the-Day  ( Bullish )
===============

Randgold - GOLD - close: 24.81 change: +0.67 - stop: 21.99*new*

Company Description:
Randgold Resources is an African gold mining and exploration
business incorporated in the Channel Islands in 1995 and listed
on the London Stock Exchange in 1994 and on Nasdaq in 2002.
(Source:  Company Website.)

Why we like it:
Friday, Martin Pring, the author of several texts on technical
analysis, spoke on CNBC and noted the upside expected in gold
stocks.  He spoke about the HUI, the gold bugs index.  We're glad
he mentioned the HUI, because we had already noticed that one
component, GOLD, appeared to be breaking out.

After rallying, gold futures have been consolidating in a
symmetrical triangle with the presumption being that the breakout
will be to the upside.  Depending on how the upper trendline is
constructed, gold futures may actually already have edged over
the upper trendline.  The HUI pulled back on Thursday and Friday,
but has been regularly consolidating, then breaking out and
moving up about ten points.  We think it's time to consider a
bullish gold play.

GOLD closed at a new daily and weekly high on Friday.  It's on a
P&F buy signal.  Volume picked up, too.  MACD lines separated and
turned up, and RSI and stochastics both turned up again.  We'd
like to play GOLD at current levels, but we're aware of that
symmetrical triangle on the gold futures and also of an ascending
trendline connecting the last three GOLD highs.  That trendline
crosses just above $24.00.  To ensure that this breakout is real,
we're setting a trigger at $24.50.  A move above $24.00 will also
give a new P&F buy signal, confirming the breakout.  Our stop is
$21.49, and aggressive traders could target a pullback and bounce
from that level rather than waiting for the trigger to be hit.

Why This is our Play of the Day
There are few sectors of the market that look as fundamentally
strong as the Precious Metals sector, as it continues to be
underpinned by the recent and expected future weakness in the
dollar.  On Wednesday, the Gold And Silver index (XAU.X) staged a
mighty move, closing above $91 and just eclipsing the prior high
from August 20th.  That represents the best close for the XAU
since late 1997.  Not only did GOLD move to a new high yesterday,
but it pushed up for another 2.75% gain today and is in clear
breakout territory.  Today's gain is particularly encouraging,
because it propelled the stock through an ascending trendline
connecting the January and May peaks, and this gives the
impression that the bullish trend is strengthening.  Pullbacks
into the $23.50-23.75 area look like a good opportunity to get
onboard, while momentum entries can be considered on a breakout
over today's $25.00 intraday high.  Raise stops to $21.99, just
below the top of the August 20th gap.

Annotated Chart of GOLD:


Picked on Aug 24th at    $23.40
Change since picked:      +1.41
Earnings Date:         08/12/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     342 K


=========================
Stop-Loss Adjustments
=========================


GOLD – Raise from $21.49 up to $21.99


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

NGAS    Daughtery Resources         5.13     +0.53
DCEL    Dobson Communications       8.98     +0.79
CRK     Comstock Resources         14.75     +0.65
RCII    Rent-A-Center              79.29     +0.85
RL      Polo Ralph Lauren          29.41     +0.76
MYG     Maytag Corp                26.81     +1.23

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

GNTA    Genta Inc                  16.00     +1.24
WDC     Western Digital            11.48     +1.98
PALM    Palm Inc                   18.03     +1.04
LTXX    LTX Corp                   14.99     +2.56
NKTR    Nektar Therapeutics        11.20     +1.43
ZIGO    Zygo Corp                  11.30     +1.35

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

ZMH     Zimmer Holdings            51.57     +2.85
UTEK    Ultratech Inc              29.27     +1.30
UOPX    University of Phoenix      64.50     +5.17
HAR     Harman Intl                96.98     +3.35
PETM    PetsMart Inc               23.34     +2.39
MIK     Michaels Stores            44.78     +5.35
IVGN    Invitrogen Corp            57.98     +1.90

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

. None ..

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MRX     Medicis Pharmaceutical     59.66     -1.44
WMAR    West Marine Inc            21.30     -1.86
EBAY    eBay Inc                  109.52     -1.98
TECH    Techne Corp                33.85     -0.62




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