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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 09/21/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-21-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Calm After The Storm
Play-of-the-Day:  Focus on This
Market Sentiment: Bulls Forge Deep Into Bear Territory


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 9-19         WE 9-12         WE 9-05         WE 8-29
DOW     9644.82 +173.27 9471.55 - 31.79 9503.34 + 87.52 + 66.95
Nasdaq  1905.70 + 50.67 1855.03 -  3.21 1858.24 + 47.79 + 45.13
S&P-100  520.62 +  8.32  512.30 -  0.19  512.49 +  9.13 +  5.94
S&P-500 1036.30 + 17.67 1018.63 -  2.76 1021.39 + 13.38 + 14.95
W5000  10054.07 +176.76 9877.31 - 29.38 9906.69 +136.23 +158.03
RUT      520.20 + 11.14  509.06 +  0.19  508.87 + 11.45 + 11.91
TRAN    2794.71 + 59.11 2735.60 - 11.69 2747.29 + 64.05 + 41.68
VIX       19.07 -  1.18   20.25 +  0.88   19.37 -  0.12 -  0.78
VXN       29.74 -  2.94   32.68 + 11.98   30.70 +  1.18 +  0.05
TRIN       1.35            1.11            1.04            0.78
Put/Call   0.68            0.90            0.72            1.29
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================


Calm After The Storm
by Jim Brown

While the cleanup begins on the hurricane battered east coast
the cleanup in the markets also began. The excesses from the
big gains on Thursday eased and the NYSE board began its search
for a new chairman and started the long task to rebuild its
image. The quadruple witching Friday ended calmly after traders
apparently cleared their books on Thursday

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


The only economic report on Friday was the Weekly Leading Index
and it came in at 129.5 which was +1.0 over last weeks reading.
This is a sleeper report and is not really a market mover as
most of the components have been announced earlier in the week.
Components of this index include Jobless Claims, Ten year yields,
NYSE Composite, money supply, etc. This is an index created
from all the other data for the week. Next week is devoid of
material economic reports until Thursday when we will be overrun
with numbers beginning with Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Help
Wanted Index, New Home Sales, Monthly Mass Layoffs and Existing
Home Sales. Friday has GDP and Michigan Sentiment.

While we will not get consumer sentiment numbers again until
next week the sentiment numbers that matter were announced
by AMG Data on Friday. U.S. stock mutual funds had inflows of
$2.2 billion in the week ended Sept 17th. This was the 17th
consecutive week that these funds have generated positive
flows. International funds saw inflows of $987 million and
small-cap funds received $615 million. The headline number
was up +$94 million from the prior week. With positive fund
flows continuing to feed the markets it is no wonder we are
still seeing some upward pressure.

The profit taking from Thursday's strong gains to new highs
was weak and on low volume. The Dow only gave back -10% of
its gains and the Nasdaq only slightly more. Considering the
current levels this should be considered very bullish. My
opinion is still the same concerning the huge spike and I
think it was option related short covering. We will not know
for sure until Tuesday. Impacting the markets on Friday other
than the options expiration was a rebalancing of the S&P
indexes and the FTSE Global Index. These were not major
movers as they were simply an adjustment of percentages of
stock held. As companies add or remove stock from the market
the index fund managers must add and subtract stock from
their portfolios to maintain an equal balance with the index.
For instance MSFT has increased its weighting in the S&P-500
by 0.72%. Funds must add 0.72% to their current positions.
If your fund position was 25 mil shares then you had to buy
an additional 180,000 at the close on Friday to bring your
position into parity. PFE saw its weighting drop -1.39% so
index funds needed to reduce their holdings by that amount.
Multiply this by several hundred stocks and you can see why
there was some serious volume at the close. HPQ announced
that is was going to buy back an additional $1 billion in
stock. This means the next quarterly rebalancing will
reflect the change in HPQ once they actually buys that stock
back.

I am not going to bore you today with repetitious stock news
from Friday because there was hardly any. It was a quiet news
day with most stories focusing on the Isabel damage and clean
up, the Grasso exit or the California recall election. This
was not a day where the news moved the markets. There were
no real economics and other than a couple of small cap
earnings warnings it was quiet. Boring and quiet. The calm
before the storm. I know, you have heard it before, but here
it is again. Is that thunder in the distance?

Volume on the exchanges was evenly split between advancers
and decliners and despite the negative headline numbers the
new 52-week highs rose to 824 and a two week high. The
quarterly quadruple witch appeared to be over after the open
based on the lack of volatility for the balance of the day.
The VIX closed at 19.07 and only .17 off the 52-week closing
low of 18.90. The investor sentiment levels rose to 56.1%
and bearish sentiment dropped to 19.4%. The Dow bullish
percent rose to 83.33, OEX 87.0, SPX 82.8, Compx 77.41.
In the OEX Bullish percent chart below you will notice that
the index is running off the top of the chart while the RSI
and MACD are showing clear bearish divergence. How much
higher can it go?



A reading over 80, much less 87.00, is very rare. This is the
highest reading since 1996 and the oldest date I could chart.
It has only been over 80 three times in six years and it has
been over 80 since mid June. Think about it. Not only is it
very rare but this length of time over 80 is unheard of.



The VIX close at 19.07 is at a level only seen four times
since Jan-1999. This is very bearish but it is not a trigger
indicator. That means it can stay there for some period of
time before the reaction takes place.



I have shown this chart before but it bears repeating. Each
time since 1998 that the VIX moved under 19 the results were
the same. I don't make this up, I just report it. Everybody
says quit harping on the VIX. In my opinion anybody that
does not watch the VIX is asking for trouble. It is up to
you to decide to react to it or ignore it.

VIX/Dow 5-year chart


Let's recap the facts and the result:

Bullish investor sentiment at 56%  (bearish)
Bearish investor sentiment at 17%  (bearish)
Bullish percent on the OEX at 87.0 (very bearish)
VIX at 19 for the 4th time in 5 yrs. (bearish)
Bearish divergence on indicators
on the OEX bullish percent chart     (bearish)
Monday begins the worst four weeks  (bearish)
Markets at new highs after 7 mo run  (bearish)


It is statistics like those that are driving the bears crazy.
The market refuses to go down and extreme bullish indicators
are growing even more bullish on a daily basis. The off the
scale bullishness is feeding on itself and providing the
urge for investors to chase stocks even higher.

Next week is going to be a major test for the indexes. I
have been reporting for weeks that we were about to enter
the worst six weeks of the year from mid September to the
end of October. Well boys and girls we are now moving into
the worst four weeks of the year. This is the period after
September options expiration and before the October
expiration. Why?

Mutual funds have an October 31st fiscal year-end. This
means funds wanting to lock in profits and/or off set losses
have to sell over the next four weeks. They could wait
longer but the normal plan is to wait for the Sept option
expiration period to pass before dumping stocks. They try
to get all the portfolio rebalancing, including buying new
stocks, done before the October option expiration. This
compresses the time frame for all these events to occur
into the next 3-4 weeks. In a year where many stocks have
more than doubled in value since March the odds are good
that many funds are going to lock in profits to dress up
statements. After three years of a bear market the urge
to show a nice profit is going to be strong. Don't get me
wrong. The funds are not stupid. If the market opens up
on Monday and they feel the momentum is still there they
will try to stretch their gains just like everyone else.
Once the momentum appears to fade it may trigger the end
of that stretch attempt. The next three weeks are the three
most important weeks of the year for funds. This is where
all the planning and pain pays off and bonuses are earned.
Until those profits are translated into cash they can
disappear in an instant with any negative event. However,
not all funds sell and they do not sell all stocks. If
they think there is more upside in a stock and they do
not have anything better to replace it with then just
taking profits to take profits is a self defeating process.
Confused? The bottom line is that some will and some won't
and until it happens nobody has a clue.

I feel like Chicken Little. I have been reporting on the
"normal" market trends since late July and none of them
have come to pass. The fix was in and the retail traders
are convinced the worst is over and recovery is ahead.
This belief has produced a positive inflow of cash to
funds for the last 17 weeks. The Fed is going out of its
way to promise no rate hikes until well into the recovery
cycle. We are poised for a huge explosion in earnings if
the recovery comes to pass. At this point that is more
of "when" instead of "if" but it has not happened yet.
We are seeing a slow increase in the economy but maybe
not enough to justify the strong rally from March.

This brings us to next week. "Normally" this would be the
beginning of the lock in profits volatility period. However,
with the funds still pouring in and the investing public
counting dollars instead of sheep at night it remains to
be seen what will happen. The Dow and Nasdaq are in nosebleed
territory not seen in over a year and by many indicators
very overbought. This could produce a spectacular dip back
to the August lows or just another dip to be bought by the
bulls. Until it happens it is just speculation and nobody
has a clue. The market has embarrassed quite a few analysts
over the last couple months and has proved one thing more
often than not. The market will always do exactly the
opposite of what analysts expect at critical points.
Hopefully by doing my Chicken Little imitation again today
if the sky does fall you will be ready for it. If it doesn't
then no harm done. While Friday could have been the calm
after the storm there is a much better chance it was the
calm before the storm. Or should I say calm before the
next buying opportunity?

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================


TYCO Intl. - TYC - close: 21.90 change: +0.90 - stop: 19.99

Company Description:
Tyco International Ltd. is a diversified manufacturing and
service company. Tyco is the world's largest manufacturer and
servicer of electrical and electronic components; the world's
largest designer, manufacturer, installer and servicer of
undersea telecommunications systems; the world's largest
manufacturer, installer and provider of fire protection systems
and electronic security services and the world's largest
manufacturer of specialty valves. Tyco also holds strong
leadership positions in medical device products, and plastics and
adhesives. Tyco operates in more than 100 countries and had
fiscal 2002 revenues from continuing operations of approximately
$36 billion.  (Source:  Company Press Release.)

Why We Like It:
We added TYC to our Watch List Thursday night. If we'd known that
JP Morgan was going to add TYC to its Focus List Friday morning,
we would have upped the stock to play status sooner.  JP Morgan
thought the company's turnaround was proceeding well, and added
that all units outside of Healthcare should see big margin
opportunities.

After the announcement, TYC gapped up from its most recent basing
pattern.  It gained 4.29 percent on triple the average daily
volume.  The stock hit a new 52-week high.  Indicators all look
bullish.

Two possible entries offer themselves.  TYC's weekly chart shows
some mild resistance near $22.00.  A breakout over $22.00 would
offer a momentum entry.  After Friday's big gain, however, it's
possible that TYC will pause to consolidate those gains.  A
rising best-fit trendline crosses near $20.40.  A pullback and
bounce from anywhere above $20.50 would offer an entry.

Annotated Chart for TYC:



Picked on Sep 21 at  21.90
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    07/29/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    8 million





================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================


Bulls Forge Deep Into Bear Territory
- J. Brown

The last couple of months have certainly been eye openers.  I'm
not just talking about Dick Grasso's pay package.  Look at the
weekly charts on the Industrials and the Nasdaq composite.  The
NASDAQ has been up five out of the last six weeks and the INDU
has been up six out of the last seven.  Making the trend even
harder to believe (if you're a bear) is that these gains have
come in the heart of bear territory: August & September.  August
has broken the seasonal trend of weakness and September is on
track to follow suit.

However, as I mentioned on Thursday we're stepping into a
dangerous part of the year.  This is the thickest part of bear
territory.  It's time to tighten up the laces on those hiking
boots and keep your eyes and ears open.  Bear attacks tend to be
quick!

The last two weeks of September and the first week or two of
October can be the most painful for the equity markets.  They
tend to be ripe with profit warnings about the third quarter.
Fortunately, this year the earnings warning have been low in
number as many analysts have already raised their expectations
for the markets as whole.

One of the rules for hiking in bear country is to make plenty of
noise so you don't startle the bear and provoke a violent
response.  There's nothing more dangerous than a surprised bear
except one that's also wounded and scared.  You'd have to admit,
given the market's performance wounded and scared is probably
their current condition.  Hopefully, the parade of positive
analyst comments in August and September followed with the roar
of the markets climbing higher may have been enough noise to
actually scare aware the casual ursine.

Next week's calendar is a little quiet.  Keep an eye on the
broker-dealers.  Bear Stearns blew away earnings this last week
and we'll hear from Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley and Goldman
Sachs on Tuesday.

FYI: no new CBOT data yet.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9686
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9644

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9531
 50-dma: 9319
200-dma: 8671

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1040
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1036

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1024
 50-dma:  999
200-dma:  927

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1406
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1392

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1369
 50-dma: 1299
200-dma: 1136


-----------------------------------------------------------------


If you looked at a chart of the VIX on Friday you probably saw the
long candlestick down towards the 16 level.  We believe that is just
a bad tick.  The real low of the day was near the 19 mark.  The
markets continue to push higher, showing less and less fear, which
makes the VIX drop lower and lower.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.07 -0.23
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 29.74 -0.01

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.68        970,777       660,827
Equity Only    0.53        805,493       432,906
OEX            0.82         59,414        49,129
QQQ            1.86         57,744       107,723


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.4    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    80.0    + 0     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   83.3    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       82.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       87.0    - 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.99
10-Day Arms Index  1.15
21-Day Arms Index  1.03
55-Day Arms Index  1.02


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1537      1594
Decliners    1250      1495

New Highs     198       266
New Lows        6         0

Up Volume    789M      882M
Down Vol.    917M      977M

Total Vol.  1743M     1887M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

! The COT Website has NOT updated their data since 09/09/03.

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/09/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

No change in sentiment for the commercial traders here.  Meanwhile
small traders forked out a little more cash to increase both
their long and short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/19/03      404,665   455,381   (50,716)   (5.9%)
08/26/03      410,378   472,987   (62,609)   (7.1%)
09/02/03      417,973   482,392   (64,419)   (7.2%)
09/09/03      418,958   486,209   (67,251)   (7.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03      162,034    87,064    74,970    30.1%
08/26/03      170,424    76,967    93,457    37.8%
09/02/03      169,030    75,748    93,282    38.1%
09/09/03      176,401    81,444    94,957    36.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders in the e-minis continue to pump up their
long positions.  The last numbers show the most bullish
posture in quote sometime.  Meanwhile the small trader has
rotated a little bit of money from short back to long.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/19/03      296,971   235,779     61,192    11.5%
08/26/03      338,766   234,841    103,925    18.1%
09/02/03      347,724   224,011    123,713    21.6%
09/09/03      370,909   237,610    133,299    21.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       90,428   125,980   (35,552)  (16.4%)
08/26/03       52,131   120,853   (68,722)  (39.3%)
09/02/03       56,709   134,094   (77,385)  (40.6%)
09/09/03       59,692   130,270   (70,578)  (37.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders are increasing their bets on the NDX
but they're still beating more heavily on a move lower.
Small Traders are also active with larger net positions
but they're still beating on the bulls.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       32,107     53,665   (21,558) (25.1%)
08/26/03       33,991     55,849   (21,858) (24.3%)
09/02/03       37,002     55,379   (18,377) (19.9%)
09/09/03       44,677     62,369   (17,692) (16.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       25,607    10,134    15,473    43.3%
08/26/03       26,108     8,864    17,244    49.3%
09/02/03       23,168    10,561    12,607    37.4%
09/09/03       28,788    13,370    15,418    36.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

No change in investor sentiment for the professional traders
here.  There is little change for the small trader but they
have bumped up their long positions a tad.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       21,088    18,984    2,104       5.3%
08/26/03       24,586    10,386   14,200      40.6%
09/02/03       25,462    10,447   15,015      41.8%
09/09/03       25,807    10,756   15,051      41.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/19/03       15,717     9,143    6,574     26.4%
08/26/03       14,115     5,592    8,523     43.2%
09/02/03        6,629    13,402   (6,773)   (33.8%)
09/09/03        7,429    13,796   (6,367)   (30.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------



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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-21-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  ADBE, FDC
  Closed Bullish Plays:  RSAS

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     TYC
  Bullish Play Updates:  GOLD, ZMH, TARO
  Closed Bullish Plays:  WPI

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     ABGX
  Bullish Play Updates:  GLW, ORB, QCOM, TER

Stock Split/Announcement:  BLUD

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 41.37 change: -0.14 stop: 38.75

ADBE didn't waste any time, extending its gains from Wednesday,
as shares of this software stock surged over $41.50 on both
Thursday and Friday.  ADBE is now trading at levels not seen
since May of 2002 and if the bulls can clear the 5/02 highs of
$43.32, then it looks like a sure thing that we'll see a run to
next significant resistance in the $47-48 area.  We'll stick with
our recommendation for exiting the play at that point, as
reaching that height would virtually guarantee a serious bout of
profit taking.  New entries are simple at this point.  A pullback
to confirm support in the $39-40 area can be used by the dip
buyers, while momentum entries can be had on a breakout over
$41.65.  Look for continued strong volume and bullish action from
the Software index (GSO.X) to confirm new entries.  Our stop
remains at $38.75, which is just below the 20-dma, as well as the
top of the 9/11/03 gap.

Picked on September 17th at  $40.47
Change since picked           +0.90
Earnings Date              12/10/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     3.13 mln



---

First Data Corp. - FDC - cls: 42.53 chng: +0.96 stop: 40.35*new*

Just when it seemed that FDC was never going to find its way to
higher levels, the stock finally found favor among the bulls and
they broke it out on big volume (nearly double the ADV) on
Friday.  That performance presented quite the contrast to the
consolidation taking place in the rest of the market and it was
probably due to the SunTrust Robinson Humphrey upgrade from
Underweight to Overweight.  FDC has been a rather slow moving of
late and Friday's move puts the stock near the top of its rising
channel off the August lows.  So our preferred strategy for
entries is now to wait for a pullback and rebound from the
$41.25-41.75 area, confirming that old resistance is now support.
Remember, our upside target is just for a move back to the $44-45
area, for a retest of the June highs, so chasing the stock higher
from here really doesn't make sense on a risk/reward basis.  So
when that level is reached, we're recommending taking profits.
Raise stops this weekend to $40.35.

Picked on September 3rd at  $41.01
Change since picked          +1.52
Earnings Date             10/14/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    4.55 mln





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

RSA Security - RSAS - close: 15.50 change: -0.08 stop: 14.50

RSAS has treated us well, especially considering its short tenure
on the play list.  After breakout out above the $14 level on
Monday, the stock really caught fire, reaching as high as $15.78
late in the week before settling at $15.50.  Remember that our
target for exiting the play was $16-17, and with price stalling
just below that area, we're going to err on the side of caution,
rather than pushing it.  RSAS is up more than 13.5% from our
picked price and this looks like a good spot to harvest those
gains.  Aggressive traders that are willing to hang out a bit
longer can hold out for a run into that $16-17 area, but they
should accompany that strategy with a tight stop of $15.25, just
under Friday's consolidation lows.

Picked on September 10th at  $13.65
Change since picked           +1.85
Earnings Date              10/16/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        633 K





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

TYCO Intl. - TYC - close: 21.90 change: +0.90 - stop: 19.99

Company Description:
Tyco International Ltd. is a diversified manufacturing and
service company. Tyco is the world's largest manufacturer and
servicer of electrical and electronic components; the world's
largest designer, manufacturer, installer and servicer of
undersea telecommunications systems; the world's largest
manufacturer, installer and provider of fire protection systems
and electronic security services and the world's largest
manufacturer of specialty valves. Tyco also holds strong
leadership positions in medical device products, and plastics and
adhesives. Tyco operates in more than 100 countries and had
fiscal 2002 revenues from continuing operations of approximately
$36 billion.  (Source:  Company Press Release.)

Why We Like It:
We added TYC to our Watch List Thursday night. If we'd known that
JP Morgan was going to add TYC to its Focus List Friday morning,
we would have upped the stock to play status sooner.  JP Morgan
thought the company's turnaround was proceeding well, and added
that all units outside of Healthcare should see big margin
opportunities.

After the announcement, TYC gapped up from its most recent basing
pattern.  It gained 4.29 percent on triple the average daily
volume.  The stock hit a new 52-week high.  Indicators all look
bullish.

Two possible entries offer themselves.  TYC's weekly chart shows
some mild resistance near $22.00.  A breakout over $22.00 would
offer a momentum entry.  After Friday's big gain, however, it's
possible that TYC will pause to consolidate those gains.  A
rising best-fit trendline crosses near $20.40.  A pullback and
bounce from anywhere above $20.50 would offer an entry.

Annotated Chart for TYC:



Picked on Sep 21 at  21.90
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    07/29/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    8 million





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Randgold - GOLD - close: 25.82 change: +0.03 - stop: 24.15*new*

Randgold got ahead of the HUI, the gold bugs index, and gold,
breaking above its long-term trendline last week. GOLD printed
first a high-wave candle, then a doji, and then an inverted
umbrella as it climbed.  We think it just got ahead of the HUI
and gold, both of which look ready to break out of their own
consolidation patterns.

The high volume on a day when the close was lower than the open
appears bearish, but a study of intraday patterns shows that
volume spikes occurred when GOLD climbed, not fell.  The bearish
kiss on the stochastics is balanced by an MACD that appears to be
cupping up again.

We've raised our stop to $24.15.  While new entries can still be
sought on a bounce from above the rising red trendline, first
confirm strength in the HUI and gold before considering such an
entry.

Annotated Chart for GOLD:


Picked on Aug 24 at  23.40
Change since picked: +2.42
Earnings Date:    08/12/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  360 thousand



----

Zimmer Holdings - ZMH - close: 53.69 change: -0.59  - stop: 51.49

ZMH hit our $54.00 trigger on Thursday, but without the expansion
of volume we suggested was needed for confirmation.  We'll follow
the play as if it's been triggered, however.

ZMH turned down Friday.  That was the day ZMH confirmed its 99
percent ownership of Centerpulse shares.  ZMH made a $3.4-billion
offer for the Swiss orthopaedics company in its bid to become the
world's largest orthopaedics group.  We think Friday's downturn
was probably a sell-the-event reaction, although we also note
that Stryker, SYK, and some other medical-device manufacturers
declined.

Although MACD flattened and RSI rolled down, stochastics remained
bullish.  Often mixed indicator signals hint that a period of
consolidation will ensue and that may happen with ZMH, too. The
10-dma rises beneath the current price, snaking above the midline
support of the rising regression channel.  Friday's candle sprang
up satisfactorily from its test of the $53.00 level that was
support during its last consolidation period.  Further entries
could be sought on a push above Friday's high, but first confirm
an expansion in volume.

Annotated Chart for ZMH:


Picked on Sep 17 at   53.87
Change since picked:  -0.18
Earnings Date:    07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  2.2 million



---

Taro Pharm. - TARO - close: 58.47 change: +0.39 stop: 57.00*new*

As resilient as the Energizer Bunny, shares of TARO just keep
going and going.  The stock has been so consistent, that Friday's
fractional gain marked the 10th consecutive daily gain.  Price
has steadily been working its way through resistance left behind
in June and July.  The last measure of resistance between the
current price and new highs is that left behind in early July in
the $59.00-60.50 area.  Conservative traders will want to harvest
gains in that area, while more aggressive traders can hang on for
a potential breakout to new highs.  We are not recommending new
positions this close to major resistance.  In fact, we're getting
more aggressive with the stop, raising it to $57 this weekend.
This keeps the risk-reward ratio balanced at roughly 1:1 for any
further gains between here and our $60 target.  Either TARO will
continue upwards to tag that target and provide a solid or take
us out of the play on a trailed stop for a more modest gain.
Either way, we win!

Picked on September 10th at  $54.65
Change since picked           +3.82
Earnings Date              10/23/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        365 K






============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


Watson Pharma. - WPI - close: 44.15  change: -0.47  - stop: 43.50

Perhaps the WPI news department wasn't churning out the press
releases fast enough at the end of the week, because WPI
retreated from its second test of the $45.00 level.  Although it
was encouraging to see WPI spring back above its 10-dma today,
we're afraid that it's headed down for a test of our stop and a
possible confirmation of a double-top pattern.

RSI rolled down out of territory indicating overbought
conditions, and both MACD and stochastics are beginning to lose
some of their bullish tenor.  We've booked big gains in this play
and think we'd rather keep them than risk giving them back.

Picked on Aug 27 at  40.74
Change since picked: +3.41
Earnings Date:    08/05/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.1 million





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


Abgenix Inc. - ABGX - close: 16.58 change: +0.78 stop: 14.60

Company Description:
Operating in the biopharmaceutical field, Abgenix develops and
intends to commercialize antibody therapeutic products for the
treatment of a variety of disease conditions including transplant
related diseases, inflammatory and autoimmune disorders, and
cancer.  Harnessing the power of the mouse, ABGX has developed
XenoMouse technology, a proprietary technology which the company
believes enables quick generation of fully human antibody product
candidates using mice.  The company also owns a technology that
enables the rapid identification of antibodies with desired
function and characteristics, referred to as SLAM technology.

Why we like it:
Continuing to lead the overall NASDAQ market higher, the
Biotechnology index (BTK.X) logged a new 52-week closing high on
Thursday at $494 and bucking the trend of consolidation on
Friday, actually pushed a couple points higher on Friday.  That
made the BTK the only technology sector on Friday to actually
post a gain.  There are several stocks in the sector that are
looking bullish, but ABGX looked particularly strong last week,
as it marched steadily higher and then broke out to new 16-month
highs above $16.50 on Friday with the support of strong volume.
While there is some resistance looming near $17.25, it looks like
ABGX has room to run to the $20 level before encountering strong
resistance.  A quick glance at the PnF chart shows the underlying
strength, as the stock is on a Buy signal, in a column of X,
above the bearish resistance line and with a bullish price target
of $22.  So targeting a move to the $20 level certainly seems
reasonable.

After the initial breakout over $15 earlier this month, ABGX came
back down and confirmed new support just below that level before
continuing higher with last week's breakout.  The lows of that
consolidation give us a clear level for defining our stop at
$14.60.  Another interesting observation we can make is that
Friday's strong upward move launched off of a test of the 10-dma
(now at $15.54).  Looking at the strong upward move from earlier
in the month, we can see that it also launched off of the 10-dma
(then at $12.59), so going forward we can define another rebound
from the 10-dma as an attractive entry point into this bullish
run.  That may not happen in the near-term and a more realistic
pullback entry looks like a dip and rebound from the $15.90-16.00
area.  We're hesitant to suggest breakout entries at this point,
due to the aforementioned $17.25 resistance and the fact that
price was turned back on Friday from just below the upper
Bollinger band (currently $17.17).  But aggressive traders
willing to take the risk down to our stop can certainly attempt
it provided continued strength in the BTK index supports such a
strategy.

Annotated Chart of ABGX:


Picked on September 17th at  $16.58
Change since picked           +0.78
Earnings Date              10/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     1.55 mln



============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Corning, Inc. - GLW - cls: 10.00 change: +0.27 - stop: 8.98*new*

That's the kind of action we like to see in a new bullish play.
GLW has gained almost 7 percent from Wednesday's closing price,
and those gains have been confirmed by strong volume.  Friday,
GLW hit a new 52-week high, offering further bullish signs.  MACD
lines separate and turn up in full bullish run, and RSI continues
up, too.

We've raised our stop to $8.98, just under the rising 10-dma and
the midline of the rising regression channel.  Conservative
traders might like to move that stop closer to their entry level.

Now that GLW has hit $10.00, traders may see some of that
hesitation we mentioned might occur at this level.  If so,
traders will have a new entry point on a pullback and bounce
anywhere above $9.20.  Momentum entries might be offered on a
push through $10.00, but confirm volume on such a breakout.

Annotated Chart for GLW:


Picked on Sep 17 at   $9.35
Change since picked:  +0.65
Earnings Date:    07/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  6.8 million



----

Orbital Sciences - ORB - cls: 9.70  chng: -0.03 - stop: 8.99*new*

Thursday, ORB found support at the midline of its rising
regression channel and climbed.  During Friday's weak trading,
ORB held its own.  Stochastics curve back up again, but RSI
hooked down slightly, producing mixed oscillator evidence.  We've
noticed that ORB often follows a big-candle day with several days
of consolidation or a mild dip, so ORB may be beginning that same
pattern again after Thursday's big gain. The DFI, the defense
index, also treaded water on Friday, however, so ORB may merely
have been following a closely linked sector's behavior.

Volume measured a light 228 thousand on Friday, consistent with a
consolidation pattern. Oscillator evidence was mixed, as also
often occurs with consolidation.  If another period of
consolidation is occurring, we do wish ORB had reached a higher
high before beginning that consolidation, but perhaps greater
weight should be given to ORB's higher weekly close, the highest
since August, 2000.

New entries could be found on another pullback and bounce from
the rising 10-dma and the midline of the regression channel, but
those entries would not have much cushion before ORB hits
expected hesitation at the $10.00 round-number resistance.
Entries could also be sought on a breakout above $10.00, but
confirm that volume expands on the breakout.

Annotated Chart for ORB:


Picked on Sep 3 at   $9.18
Change since picked: +0.52
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand



----

Qualcomm - QCOM - close: 45.05 change: -0.68 - stop: 42.75

Friday started out with telecoms leading declines in overseas
markets, so the stage was set for U.S. telecoms to experience a
negative day.  Then QCOM CEO Irwin Jacobs commented that China
had decided to delay to 2004--and probably late 2004--the
decision on next-generation mobile phones.  China has been
debating using QCOM's technology or a domestic version.  While
the news wasn't totally unexpected, it couldn't be characterized
as good news.

QCOM retraced some of its recent gains, printing another inside-
day candle, as did the XTC, the North American Telecoms Index.
QCOM printed another inside-day candle earlier in the week.
Traders who employed the inside-day technique, going long on a
breakout above that inside-day high, benefited.  This inside-day
candle may provide another entry point.  In fact, it may provide
two.  Traders could enter on a breakout above the inside-day
high, but we would alter the technique in this case, counseling
that traders wait for a breakout over $46.00 before triggering an
inside-day long position.  Another entry could be sought if QCOM
declines below the inside-day low but bounces from above $43.00.

One difference shows up when studying Wednesday's inside-day
candle and Friday's.  Wednesday's candle did not retrace more
than 50 percent of the previous day's candle.  Friday's did, and
it also closed slightly below that 50 percent retracement.  The
retracement wasn't far below the 50 percent level, so evidence is
mixed, but a more than 50 percent retracement sometimes means
that a further decline can be expected, so the pullback entry may
be the one offered.

MACD remains strong.  Stochastics and RSI continue trending in
overbought territory, as often happens with a strongly trending
stock.  We've raised our stop to $42.75, just below the rising
10-dma at $43.21.

Annotated Chart for QCOM:


Picked on Aug 27 at  41.00
Change since picked: +4.05
Earnings Date:    07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 	10 million



---

Teradyne Inc. - TER - close: 22.00 change: +0.28 stop: 20.50

The Semiconductor index (SOX.X) may have been stymied by solid
resistance near the $460 level once again last week, but that
didn't stop our TER play from continuing to log new 52-week
highs.  After breaking above the early September highs just over
$21, on Tuesday, the bulls just kept pushing to higher highs,
right into the end of the week.  Sure the price has been
volatile, but that's convenient for those looking to enter on the
pullbacks.  Note that the long tail on Thursday's candle (down to
$19.34) was the result of a single 3000 share transaction, and
looks like a bad tick.  Ignoring that trade, TER has been working
higher in its ascending channel for over a month now.  The top of
the channel is currently at $23 (the site of our first major
resistance), so conservative traders might want to harvest some
gains near that level.  The bottom of the channel is just over
$20.50, making that level ideal placement for our stop.  An
intraday dip back to the $21 level can be used for a fresh entry
point, with an eye towards achieving our final upside target of
$25.

Picked on September 3rd at  $20.11
Change since picked          +1.89
Earnings Date             10/14/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.96 mln






==================================================================
STOCK SPLIT/ANNOUNCEMENT
==================================================================


Immucor (BLUD) identifies a 3-for-2 stock split.

Midday on Friday Immucor, Inc (NASDAQ:BLUD) announced that its
Board of Directors had approved another 3-for-2 stock split of its
common shares.  The split, to take effect as a 50% stock dividend
will be payable on November 14th, 2003 to shareholder on record as
of October 24th.

This newest stock split should raise BLUD's shares outstanding to
19.5 million.  This is BLUD's fifth stock split since its IPO in
December 1985.

About the company:
Founded in 1982, Immucor manufactures and sells a complete line of
reagents and systems used by hospitals, reference laboratories and
donor centers to detect and identify certain properties of the
cell and serum components of blood prior to transfusion. Immucor
markets a complete family of automated instrumentation for all of
our market segments.
(Source: Company Press Release)



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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-21-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of September 22nd, 2003
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

===========================================
Market Watch for the week of September 22nd
===========================================


Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

AZO    AutoZone Inc.         Mon, Sep 22  After the Bell    1.92


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

FDS    FactSet Research Sys  Tue, 16 Sep  Before the Bell   0.37
CBK    Christopher & Banks   Tue, Sep 23  -----N/A-----     0.21
GS     Goldman Sachs         Tue, Sep 23  Before the Bell   1.22
LEH    LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC Tue, Sep 23  Before the Bell   1.34
MWD    Morgan Stanley        Tue, Sep 23  Before the Bell   0.69
SCHL   Scholastic            Tue, Sep 23  After the Bell   -0.68
WOS    Wolseley              Tue, Sep 23  -----N/A-----      N/A


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BBBY   Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.Wed, Sep 24  After the Bell   0.30
COGN   Cognos                Wed, Sep 24  After the Bell   0.18
CGA    Corus Group plc       Wed, Sep 24  Before the Bell   N/A
DRI    Darden Restaurants    Wed, Sep 24  -----N/A-----    0.38
LNR    LNR Property          Wed, Sep 24  -----N/A-----    0.88
MKC    McCormick & Company   Wed, Sep 24  Before the Bell  0.29
PAYX   Paychex               Wed, Sep 24  Before the Bell  0.20
SCS    Steelcase Inc.        Wed, Sep 24  After the Bell   0.02
VE     Veolia Environnement  Wed, Sep 24  -----N/A-----     N/A
V      Vivendi Universal     Wed, Sep 24  -----N/A-----     N/A


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

COMS   3Com                  Thu, 18 Sep  After the Bell  -0.14
AM     Am Greetings Corp     Thu, Sep 25  Before the Bell -0.17
RIMM   Res In Motion Lmted   Thu, Sep 25  -----N/A-----    0.07
RAD    Rite Aid Corporation  Thu, Sep 25  -----N/A-----   -0.04
SLR    Solectron             Thu, Sep 25  -----N/A-----   -0.05


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

BKST    Brookstone Inc            3:2      Sep  23rd   Sep  24th
SNPS    Synopsys Inc              2:1      Sep  23rd   Sep  24th
SAFE    Invivo Corp               3:2      Sep  26th   Sep  29th
CCBI    Commercial Capital Bancorp3:2      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
KVA     KV Pharmaceutical         3:2      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
MMM     3M                        2:1      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
ABVA    Alliance Bankshares Corp  3:2      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
PLMD    PolyMedica Corp           2:1      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
WERN    Werner Enterprises Inc    5:4      Sep  30th   Oct   1st
GPRO    Gen-Probe Inc             2:1      Sep  30th   Oct   1st
BMTC    Bryn Mawr Bank Corp       2:1      Oct   1st   Oct   2nd


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The first half of the week is empty of major economic reports
but Thursday and Friday are full.  Home sales on Thursday and
the Sentiment numbers on Friday are probably the biggest ones
to watch.  We're still in earnings warning season.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 09/22/03
----------------
UBS Warburg Global Life Sciences Conference


----------------
Tuesday, 09/23/03
----------------
Redbook Retail Sales
UN General Assembly - President Bush speaks about 10:30 AM ET.
UBS Warburg Global Life Sciences Conference
Merrill Lynch Global Pharmaceutical Conference.

-------------------
Wednesday, 09/24/03
-------------------
API/Dept. of Energy Oil/Gasoline inventories.
UBS Warburg Global Life Sciences Conference


------------------
Thursday, 09/25/03
------------------
Initial Claims  (BB)  09/13  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:      N/A
Durable Orders (BB)     Aug  Forecast:    0.6%  Previous:     1.0%
Help-Wanted Index (DM)  Aug  Forecast:      39  Previous:       38
Existing Home Sales(DM) Aug  Forecast:   6.07M  Previous:    6.12M
New Home Sales (DM)     Aug  Forecast:   1110K  Previous:    1165K
Wells Fargo Securities Consumer Conference
Natural Gas Inventories

----------------
Friday, 09/26/03
----------------
GDP-Final (BB)           Q2  Forecast:    3.1%  Previous:     3.1%
Chain Deflator-Final (BB)Q2  Forecast:    0.9%  Previous:     0.8%
Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)Sep  Forecast:    89.2  Previous:     88.2
Greenspan speaks to US Congressional Black Caucus.


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ALL     Allstate Corp              37.48     +0.53
BDX     Becton Dickinson & Co      38.00     +0.60
AVB     Avalonbay Communities      47.44     +0.65
LRY     Liberty Property Trust     36.61     +0.82
HPT     Hospitality Prop. trust    33.10     +0.73
TBCC    TCB Corp                   22.75     +0.99

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

RHAT    Red Hat Inc                 9.88     +1.48
IBC     Interstate Bakeries Corp   14.92     +1.42
VSAT    ViaSat Inc                 18.25     +1.64
ITB     Gartner Group              12.30     +1.01
SPRT    SupportSoft Inc            11.50     +1.19
IMAX    Imax Corp                   8.85     +1.12

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

SLB     Schlumberger Ltd           50.99     +1.74
NKE     Nike Inc                   61.50     +4.25
DGX     Quest Diagnostic           64.00     +1.29
BLK     Blackrock Inc              51.38     +1.22
NTLI    NTL Inc                    53.37     +2.30
TEK     Tektronix Inc              25.67     +1.32
COLM    Columbia Sportswear        55.25     +1.05

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

GILD    Gilead Sciences            59.96     -2.29
NWL     Newell Rubbermaid          22.43     -1.57
ABC     AmerisourceBergen          54.83     -1.82
AVY     Avery Dennison             51.06     -1.33
FWHT    FindWhat.com               20.21     -6.81

-------------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

FWRD    Forward Air Corp           29.70     -1.04
ODFL    Old Dominion               32.00     -1.67



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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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