PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 09-23-2003 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Back to the Future Watch List: NSC, XICO, PIXR, TYC and more! Market Sentiment: More of the same ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 09-23-2003 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9576.04 + 40.60 9583.48 9511.41 1.60 bln 2002/1189 NASDAQ 1901.72 + 27.10 1901.73 1875.15 1.86 bln 2069/1201 S&P 100 516.12 + 2.81 516.61 512.19 Totals 4071/2390 S&P 500 1029.03 + 6.21 1030.12 1021.54 W5000 9993.48 + 65.70 10000.16 9923.72 RUS 2000 519.36 + 5.71 519.49 513.65 DJ TRANS 2800.38 + 21.20 2804.13 2779.70 VIX 19.47 - 0.18 19.97 19.31 VXN 26.98 - 0.96 28.04 26.90 Total Volume 3,735M Total UpVol 2,702M Total DnVol 956M 52wk Highs 606 52wk Lows 15 TRIN 0.90 NAZTRIN 0.43 PUT/CALL 0.85 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Back to the Future The markets closed almost exactly where we closed last Tuesday. After an entire week of thrills and chills we are right back where we were last week. Literally the Dow missed it by 7 points, S&P by .29 of a point. The Nasdaq was the star performer with a +15 point gain. The gains were less than the losses yesterday so despite the green close we are still down for the week. Relief bounce or dip buy is still undetermined. The Nikkei was closed today and as the source of our Monday weakness all eyes will be on the Japanese index tonight. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart The only economic report today was the Weekly Chain Store Sales which fell -1.8%. Analysts attributed the loss of sales to the hurricane, the monthly paycheck cycle and falling numbers of tax rebate checks. Last week they were claiming the underlying strength in retail sales was due to the hurricane and buying of building materials. They also said it was natural for a slump after a period of small growth. While I agree with all of these things isn't it amazing how the excuses come pouring out whenever there is an estimate miss? Wal-Mart held up the sector today with comments that sales were tracking at the high end of estimates. The real economic report today was an earnings warning from Verizon. The company said its 2003 earnings would fall short of prior estimates due to weak demand for services and rising labor contract costs. Verizon is the largest phone company and the weak demand could be signs the recovery is not gaining speed. They are seeing increased demand for wireless services as many customers switch to cell phone only and cancel existing land lines. It expects to add 4.5 million subscribers in 2003. Can you hear me now? Good for Verizon if you can and that commercial has new users flocking to the cell phone business. Unfortunately they have to constantly update their cell infrastructure while their expensive land lines are going dormant. It is a good news, bad news joke that will eventually benefit shareholders once the trend stabilizes. Still the other phone companies were weak today on fears that what is happening to the big guy will probably impact the smaller fish as well. Paychex reported a +6% rise in earnings due to a +24% spike in payroll services. While several high profile analysts were quick to say this was an indicator of a jump in hiring I beg to differ. I find it hard to believe that there was a 24% jump in employment this quarter. The economic numbers just do not show it. I believe their increase was due to a continued drop in jobs as small businesses cut out the clerical accounting help in favor of using a cheaper payroll service instead. It is just another in a long line of cost cutting measures to keep the doors open. I am sure a lot of it was due to their beefed up marketing campaign as well but that still supports the corporate cost cutting scenario. Dell may be about ready to take a page out of the Gateway play book. A Reuters report said Dell may be laying the groundwork to enter the flat screen TV market place, digital music players and handheld computers. Dell would love to get into the high dollar flat screen TV market like Gateway and then take on the big boys at their own game. Dell is the master at turning the manufacturing process into a pure commodity driven model with just in time shipping of components assuring the lowest price on a daily basis. They maintain a constant stream of price quotations from suppliers and because of Dell's volume the suppliers will cut their own profits to the bone to get the deal. Once Dell gets into the flat panel TV business the prices should start dropping quickly. The price war could be drastic. Dell was up on the news and nearing a 52-week high at $35. Would the last one out at Gateway please turn off the lights. The Nikkei was closed today and the US markets had to find their own way with no guidance from Japan. Regardless of the minor market gains today the dollar/yen fight is not over and it will come back to bite us. The Yen hit a three-year high to the dollar on Tuesday and comments from Japan would indicate it could go higher. The problem is the imbalance of trade and the US debt. If we buy a Japanese car the car company gives the US dollars to the Bank of Japan in exchange for Yen to pay their employees and suppliers. Normally a bank would then sell the dollars on the open market and buy back yen to replace the ones given to the car company. This cheapens the dollar and raises the value of the Yen and balances the currencies. However, to avoid this the BOJ has been buying US bonds with the dollars which effectively takes them out of the market and provides the US with a willing lender to support our deficit. This keeps interest rates down and the US functioning normally. It does not hurt Japan whose Yen is pegged to the dollar to keep those dollars from reentering the market. The current problem comes from a strong rumor that the Asian countries are becoming increasingly wary of the US debt as the deficit rises. The Democrats announced today that the Iraq action could cost $400 billion or more and drive the deficit to even higher levels. Several analysts have said they expect a $1 trillion deficit in 2004. With a trade war heating up and potentially high tariffs being discussed for Asian goods the worry is that Japan could stop buying US bonds. Since 46% of our bonds are purchased by overseas countries with Japan being a major portion of that number, any drop in purchases could drive up interest rates. Considering Japan is one of the largest US bond holders at over $500 billion according to some estimates they could make the dollar/yen problem even worse if they sold bonds and then sold the dollars in the marketplace. China would love to jump on the wagon as they have been buying something like $120 billion a year of US debt. Together they have a big club over the US economy. If they wanted to resort to financial terrorism or react to any new tariffs they could dump bonds/dollars and our interest rates would rocket to new highs and stop our recovery in its tracks. While they are not likely to do that because they A) have no other place to invest the money and b) depend on our dollars to finance their retail trade. They could exercise the threat of it to gain concessions from us. In order to do this they might tighten the purse strings just enough to get our attention. That is what traders are worried about. The US debt market is already heavy with the massive debt offerings (corporate and government) and any reduction of buying from Asia could be enough to offset the delicate balance. Stay tuned. The market recovery today was branded as new money coming into the market to buy the dip. It was also speculated that it was end of quarter window dressing by funds. Whatever the reason the Dow retraced almost exactly 50% of its Monday loss which would have been 9576. It closed at 9571. The Nasdaq was much stronger and came within five points of retracing 100% of the drop. Internets, chips and biotechs all rose with Internet stocks surpassing the Friday levels. Other sectors that were strong included hotels, gaming and airline stocks. AMZN rose to nearly $51 on no real news and dragged YHOO along with it. Adding to the upbeat markets was a rise in the hotel and gaming stocks with FS, HOT, MAR, HLT hitting new 52-week highs. The only really negative sector was defense after there were some negative comments about the procurement process having run its course. LMT and GD were two of the biggest losers. The bottom line for me was an apparently successful day for the markets. They shook off the panic drop from yesterday and moved back on the attack again. After an initial bounce at the open the indexes sold off and tested yesterday's lows but the test was brief. We did not rocket off the bottom but the trend was positive and gained speed on short covering when the Dow broke the 9550 level to the upside. The bounce was short lived as heavy sell volume appeared just before the close but the bulls still managed a respectable showing. Wednesday has no material economic reports with Mortgage Applications the only number to be released. That should show an increase with the drop in rates. The key will be the Nikkei tonight. Tonight is the first time it has traded since the -400 point drop on Sunday night. If it rebounds off the bottom then we could expect our markets to open up in relief that the potential bond bomb has been diffused. If funds are really marking up their portfolios for the end of the quarter statements then we are likely to go back to the recent highs tomorrow. With a heavy slate of economics on Thursday they will probably want to get in early and hope for short covering to push them higher before any bad news. The last two days of the week may not see any buying as the major earnings warnings come to a close. That would be the prime time to confess before the real earnings begin in October. For a potentially bad period in the markets this week started off bad but recovered well. The volume was light but the internals were strong with up volume three times down volume. For tomorrow Dow 9600 will be resistance as well as Nasdaq 1905. The S&P has resistance at 1032 and again at 1040. The rebound is confounding the bears and the bulls alike. Even the most adamant bulls feel like we should see a multiday bout of profit taking to insure a better base for later but the market is refusing to drop. Dip buying is alive and well and shorts are paying dearly for their conviction. AMZN rose nearly +3 on volume of 20 million shares. It is in the top ten stocks with the most short interest and those shorts are getting squeezed. I have been telling people this week not to get married to any short positions just because this week is marked with big red Xs on the calendar. What you believe about market direction is not important if the market is going against you. Capital preservation is important. The Dow and the Nasdaq are continuing to build monster bearish wedges but showing no signs of breaking down. Based on the charts above we could easily test 9700/1925 on the next uptick. The charts are painting a very tantalizing scenario for shorts and luring them back into the market on every downtick only to be surprised over and over again. With this being the 3rd year of a presidential term and the administration doing everything possible to juice the economy I firmly believe we are going to see a continued bullish tone to the market. I just expected a normal October dip from mutual fund portfolio rebalancing first. But then, it is not October yet and I can still rationalize the end of quarter markup scenario as the reason for the bounce. I just keep wondering what reason I am going rationalize next week. Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively! Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Investment Tech Group, Inc. - ITG - close: 21.12 change: +1.30 WHAT TO WATCH: With all its primary moving averages converging near the $18 level and turning up, shares of ITG were due for a breakout from the past 3 months of consolidation. that breakout arrived over the past 2 days and price pushed right up to the top of the January gap near $21.25. The stock may need to consolidate a bit before continuing higher, but an initial move to the $24-25 area seems likely. A pullback and rebound from the vicinity of $20 can be used to achieve a better entry point. --- Autozone, Inc. - AZO - close: 94.09 change: +4.36 WHAT TO WATCH: AZO is getting back to its old ways of blowing away analyst earnings estimates and repeated that familiar process again yesterday with earnings of $2.24 vs. estimates of $1.95. Investors cheered on Tuesday, launching the stock higher by nearly 5% on volume that quadrupled the ADV. Look for a pullback near the $92 level to provide a better entry and then target a move to the century mark. --- JetBlue Airways, Corp. - JBLU - close: 60.26 change: +2.30 WHAT TO WATCH: Airline stocks should all aspire to the heights achieved by JBLU in the past 18-months and the stock notched another new all-time high on Tuesday, as it was added to the S&P MidCap 400 index tonight. Look for favorable entries on a pullback near the 10-dma or on a breakout above today's intraday high of $60.50. --- Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 30.19 change: +1.11 WHAT TO WATCH: There have been lots of stocks breaking to new 52- week highs lately, but there are a lot less setting new all-time highs. SBUX added itself to that prestigious list on Tuesday with its first close over the $30 level, which came on strong volume. Look for upside continuation to have the $32 and then $34.50 levels in play. Note how the stock seems to move in roughly $2.50 increments and then consolidate for the next leg up. Look for favorable entry on an intraday pullback near the $29.00-29.50 area. =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== BSTE $37.65 - Who says there aren't any bearish plays out there? Shares of BSTE have been getting pummeled the past few days, losing another 4.8% on Tuesday. With yesterday's break of the 200-dma, this slide could continue all the way to the $30 level. The key is finding a favorable entry point, which would ideally come on a failed rebound back near the $39.50-40.00 area. PCLN $29.49 - Is PCLN losing out to the competition? It certainly seems that way from the look of the daily chart, with the stock shedding another 7% on Tuesday. There's the potential for some support near current levels and that could give a favorable bearish entry on a rollover below the 50-dma. But a drop below Tuesday's intraday low should have the $25 level in reach before the week is out, at least by the looks of the huge selling volume. MERX $17.40 - The pattern of consolidation and then a fresh breakout is very much alive in shares of MERX, as the stock surged to another 52-week high today on strong volume. Breaking above the $16.50 resistance should now have the $20 level (the top of the consolidation band from 2001-2002) in play. Any pullback near the $16.50 level should provide a favorable entry. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== More of the same - J. Brown Investor sentiment continues to be strongly bullish as the markets shrugged off another day of dollar fears. Leading the headlines was President Bush's address to the United Nations asking for unity to rebuild Iraq. The markets failed to react one way or the other to his speech. The biggest clue to investor's mindset could be the internals. The advance decline numbers were positive once again with 18 winners for every 10 losers on the NYSE and 19 advancers per 11 losers on the NASDAQ. Up volume was more than double down volume on the Big Board and almost four times down volume on the NASDAQ. As one trader commented today, we have a lack of willing sellers. Until investors decide to unload shares and lock in some profits the general trend should be a drift higher. The resiliency in the tech sectors has probably driven hair-pulling bears to baldness. We're still hearing comments about a return to a bubble mentality as the Internets like AMZN and YHOO etch new highs. Tomorrow is pretty quiet on the economic front and we'll be left to the current prevailing winds, which still point higher. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 9686 52-week Low : 7197 Current : 9576 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9532 50-dma: 9329 200-dma: 8676 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1040 52-week Low : 768 Current : 1029 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1024 50-dma: 1000 200-dma: 929 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1406 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1388 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1388 50-dma: 1302 200-dma: 1139 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Little change in the volatility or fear indices as investors continue to show "no fear". CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.49 -0.16 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 26.98 -0.96 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.86 556,650 476,000 Equity Only 0.74 478,215 352,383 OEX 1.29 10,498 13,529 QQQ 2.74 27,007 74,023 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 73.1 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 81.0 + 1 Bear Correction Dow Indust. 83.3 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 82.2 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 86.0 - 1 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Day Arms Index 1.08 10-Day Arms Index 1.14 21-Day Arms Index 1.05 55-Day Arms Index 1.02 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1809 1959 Decliners 1016 1153 New Highs 141 257 New Lows 10 2 Up Volume 1057M 1443M Down Vol. 525M 373M Total Vol. 1591M 1852M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- ! The COT Website has NOT updated their data since 09/09/03. Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/09/03 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 No change in sentiment for the commercial traders here. Meanwhile small traders forked out a little more cash to increase both their long and short positions. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/19/03 404,665 455,381 (50,716) (5.9%) 08/26/03 410,378 472,987 (62,609) (7.1%) 09/02/03 417,973 482,392 (64,419) (7.2%) 09/09/03 418,958 486,209 (67,251) (7.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 18,486 - 6/17/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/19/03 162,034 87,064 74,970 30.1% 08/26/03 170,424 76,967 93,457 37.8% 09/02/03 169,030 75,748 93,282 38.1% 09/09/03 176,401 81,444 94,957 36.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercial traders in the e-minis continue to pump up their long positions. The last numbers show the most bullish posture in quote sometime. Meanwhile the small trader has rotated a little bit of money from short back to long. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/19/03 296,971 235,779 61,192 11.5% 08/26/03 338,766 234,841 103,925 18.1% 09/02/03 347,724 224,011 123,713 21.6% 09/09/03 370,909 237,610 133,299 21.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/19/03 90,428 125,980 (35,552) (16.4%) 08/26/03 52,131 120,853 (68,722) (39.3%) 09/02/03 56,709 134,094 (77,385) (40.6%) 09/09/03 59,692 130,270 (70,578) (37.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders are increasing their bets on the NDX but they're still beating more heavily on a move lower. Small Traders are also active with larger net positions but they're still beating on the bulls. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/19/03 32,107 53,665 (21,558) (25.1%) 08/26/03 33,991 55,849 (21,858) (24.3%) 09/02/03 37,002 55,379 (18,377) (19.9%) 09/09/03 44,677 62,369 (17,692) (16.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/19/03 25,607 10,134 15,473 43.3% 08/26/03 26,108 8,864 17,244 49.3% 09/02/03 23,168 10,561 12,607 37.4% 09/09/03 28,788 13,370 15,418 36.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL No change in investor sentiment for the professional traders here. There is little change for the small trader but they have bumped up their long positions a tad. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/19/03 21,088 18,984 2,104 5.3% 08/26/03 24,586 10,386 14,200 40.6% 09/02/03 25,462 10,447 15,015 41.8% 09/09/03 25,807 10,756 15,051 41.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/19/03 15,717 9,143 6,574 26.4% 08/26/03 14,115 5,592 8,523 43.2% 09/02/03 6,629 13,402 (6,773) (33.8%) 09/09/03 7,429 13,796 (6,367) (30.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 09-23-2003 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Play of the Day: Software Still Strong Stop-Loss Adjustments: ADBE, FDC, ZMH Active Trader Closed Play: GOLD Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Play-of-the-Day ( Bullish ) =============== Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 41.46 change: +1.38 stop: 39.25 Company Description: A long-time leader in desktop publishing software, ADBE provides graphic design, publishing, and imaging software for Web and print production. Offering a line of application software products for creating, distributing, and managing information of all types, the company generates nearly 75% of sales through publishing software products such as Photoshop, Illustrator, and PageMaker. Its Acrobat Reader, which uses portable document format (PDF) is popping up all over the Internet, as businesses shift from print to digital communications. In addition, ADBE licenses its industry standard technologies to major hardware manufacturers, software developers, and service providers, as well as offering integrated software solutions to businesses of all sizes. Why we like it: ADBE didn't waste any time, extending its gains from Wednesday, as shares of this software stock surged over $41.50 on both Thursday and Friday. ADBE is now trading at levels not seen since May of 2002 and if the bulls can clear the 5/02 highs of $43.32, then it looks like a sure thing that we'll see a run to next significant resistance in the $47-48 area. We'll stick with our recommendation for exiting the play at that point, as reaching that height would virtually guarantee a serious bout of profit taking. New entries are simple at this point. A pullback to confirm support in the $39-40 area can be used by the dip buyers, while momentum entries can be had on a breakout over $41.65. Look for continued strong volume and bullish action from the Software index (GSO.X) to confirm new entries. Our stop remains at $38.75, which is just below the 20-dma, as well as the top of the 9/11/03 gap. Why This is our Play of the Day Proving the bulls haven't given up in the least, shares of ADBE burst higher out of the starting gate this morning, recouping all of their Monday losses by the middle of the day and adding fractionally to those gains by the closing bell. That 3.44% gain came on above average volume too, so traders that took advantage of that entry point near $40 are looking pretty smart here tonight. We've been looking for the 20-dma ($39.28) to provide solid support on the pullbacks, so it was encouraging to see today's rebound launch off of the 10-dma ($39.94). Successive intraday rebounds from above $40 look attractive for new entries, while momentum traders can use a move through $41.75 (just above today's intraday high) to open new positions, especially if th3e Software index (GSO.X) can finally push through its own resistance near $146. If entering on strength, don't forget that ADBE will likely find some near-term resistance in the $43.00- 43.50 area, which is the site of the May 2002 highs. Note that we're raising our stop to $39.25, just under the 20-dma. Annotated Chart of ADBE: Picked on September 17th at $40.47 Change since picked +0.99 Earnings Date 12/10/03 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 3.10 mln ========================= Stop-Loss Adjustments ========================= ADBE – Raise from $38.75 up to $39.25 FDC – Raise from $40.35 up to $41.05 ZMH – Raise from $51.49 up to $53.00 =============================== ACTIVE TRADER (AT) CLOSED PLAYS =============================== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Randgold - GOLD - close: 25.50 change: -0.86 - stop: 24.15 Late last week, we thought GOLD had gotten ahead of its underlying commodity, gold, and the HUI, breaking out ahead of them and then pausing while the sector and the commodity caught up. Both gold and the HUI, the gold bugs index, appeared ready to break out of their own consolidation formations. Both moved up Monday, as did GOLD, but GOLD's higher close didn't tell the entire story. The stock created a bearish candle that closed far nearer the low of the day than the high of the day. Tuesday's trade sent GOLD down further. Although we like the way GOLD bounced from its 10-dma and long-term trendline, showing that trendline now to be holding as support, we don't like GOLD's continued underperformance relative to its sector. Volume has been higher, too, although an examination of intraday volume shows that the volume spike occurred as GOLD hit that trendline and then bounced from it. That could be a sign of accumulation, but we're not going to wait around and see. We're closing the play. Picked on Aug 24 at 23.40 Change since picked: +2.10 Earnings Date: 08/12/03 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 360 thousand ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ITG Investment Technology 21.12 +1.30 AZO AutoZone Inc 94.09 +4.36 CRMT America's Car-Mart 27.86 +3.92 MHP McGraw-Hill 61.85 +1.67 DUSA DUSA Pharmaceuticals 6.45 +0.77 KZL Kerzner Intl Ltd 37.60 +1.70 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- NICE Nice-Systems Ltd 18.70 +1.65 CREE CREE Inc 19.59 +1.66 RHT Right Mgmt Consultants 18.28 +2.33 GERN Geron Corp 14.80 +5.23 MERX Merix Corp 17.40 +1.29 VXGN Vaxgen Inc 12.55 +2.67 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- AMZN Amazon.com 50.44 +2.97 KIND Kindred Healthcare 35.80 +2.34 OVTI Omnivision Tech 49.89 +2.44 SBUX Starbucks Corp 30.19 +1.11 JBLU JetBlue Airways 60.26 +2.30 ERES EResearch Tech 38.33 +4.12 HB Hillenbrand Industries 57.64 +2.77 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- VZ Verizon Communications 33.13 -1.58 BLS BellSouth Corp 24.35 -1.04 LMT Lockheed Martin 45.97 -1.85 GD General Dynamics 79.69 -3.54 NOC Northrup Grumman 87.96 -3.53 GYI Getty Images 35.33 -2.50 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- GS Goldman Sachs 89.06 -3.60 DRL Doral Financial Corp 45.89 -2.18 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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