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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/23/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Tuesday 09-23-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Back to the Future
Watch List:       NSC, XICO, PIXR, TYC and more!
Market Sentiment: More of the same

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      09-23-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9576.04 + 40.60  9583.48  9511.41 1.60 bln   2002/1189
NASDAQ   1901.72 + 27.10  1901.73  1875.15 1.86 bln   2069/1201
S&P 100   516.12 +  2.81   516.61   512.19   Totals   4071/2390
S&P 500  1029.03 +  6.21  1030.12  1021.54
W5000    9993.48 + 65.70 10000.16  9923.72
RUS 2000  519.36 +  5.71   519.49   513.65
DJ TRANS 2800.38 + 21.20  2804.13  2779.70
VIX        19.47 -  0.18    19.97    19.31
VXN        26.98 -  0.96    28.04    26.90
Total Volume 3,735M
Total UpVol  2,702M
Total DnVol    956M
52wk Highs  606
52wk Lows    15
TRIN       0.90
NAZTRIN    0.43
PUT/CALL   0.85
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========


Back to the Future

The markets closed almost exactly where we closed last Tuesday.
After an entire week of thrills and chills we are right back
where we were last week. Literally the Dow missed it by 7 points,
S&P by .29 of a point. The Nasdaq was the star performer with a
+15 point gain. The gains were less than the losses yesterday
so despite the green close we are still down for the week.
Relief bounce or dip buy is still undetermined. The Nikkei was
closed today and as the source of our Monday weakness all eyes
will be on the Japanese index tonight.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


The only economic report today was the Weekly Chain Store Sales
which fell -1.8%. Analysts attributed the loss of sales to the
hurricane, the monthly paycheck cycle and falling numbers of
tax rebate checks. Last week they were claiming the underlying
strength in retail sales was due to the hurricane and buying
of building materials. They also said it was natural for a
slump after a period of small growth. While I agree with all
of these things isn't it amazing how the excuses come pouring
out whenever there is an estimate miss? Wal-Mart held up the
sector today with comments that sales were tracking at the
high end of estimates.

The real economic report today was an earnings warning from
Verizon. The company said its 2003 earnings would fall short
of prior estimates due to weak demand for services and rising
labor contract costs. Verizon is the largest phone company and
the weak demand could be signs the recovery is not gaining
speed. They are seeing increased demand for wireless services
as many customers switch to cell phone only and cancel existing
land lines. It expects to add 4.5 million subscribers in 2003.
Can you hear me now? Good for Verizon if you can and that
commercial has new users flocking to the cell phone business.
Unfortunately they have to constantly update their cell
infrastructure while their expensive land lines are going
dormant. It is a good news, bad news joke that will eventually
benefit shareholders once the trend stabilizes. Still the
other phone companies were weak today on fears that what is
happening to the big guy will probably impact the smaller
fish as well.

Paychex reported a +6% rise in earnings due to a +24% spike in
payroll services. While several high profile analysts were
quick to say this was an indicator of a jump in hiring I beg
to differ. I find it hard to believe that there was a 24% jump
in employment this quarter. The economic numbers just do not
show it. I believe their increase was due to a continued drop
in jobs as small businesses cut out the clerical accounting
help in favor of using a cheaper payroll service instead. It
is just another in a long line of cost cutting measures to
keep the doors open. I am sure a lot of it was due to their
beefed up marketing campaign as well but that still supports
the corporate cost cutting scenario.

Dell may be about ready to take a page out of the Gateway play
book. A Reuters report said Dell may be laying the groundwork
to enter the flat screen TV market place, digital music players
and handheld computers. Dell would love to get into the high
dollar flat screen TV market like Gateway and then take on
the big boys at their own game. Dell is the master at turning
the manufacturing process into a pure commodity driven model
with just in time shipping of components assuring the lowest
price on a daily basis. They maintain a constant stream of
price quotations from suppliers and because of Dell's volume
the suppliers will cut their own profits to the bone to get
the deal. Once Dell gets into the flat panel TV business the
prices should start dropping quickly. The price war could be
drastic.  Dell was up on the news and nearing a 52-week high
at $35. Would the last one out at Gateway please turn off the
lights.

The Nikkei was closed today and the US markets had to find
their own way with no guidance from Japan. Regardless of the
minor market gains today the dollar/yen fight is not over and
it will come back to bite us. The Yen hit a three-year high to
the dollar on Tuesday and comments from Japan would indicate
it could go higher. The problem is the imbalance of trade and
the US debt. If we buy a Japanese car the car company gives
the US dollars to the Bank of Japan in exchange for Yen to
pay their employees and suppliers. Normally a bank would then
sell the dollars on the open market and buy back yen to replace
the ones given to the car company. This cheapens the dollar
and raises the value of the Yen and balances the currencies.
However, to avoid this the BOJ has been buying US bonds with
the dollars which effectively takes them out of the market
and provides the US with a willing lender to support our
deficit. This keeps interest rates down and the US functioning
normally. It does not hurt Japan whose Yen is pegged to the
dollar to keep those dollars from reentering the market.

The current problem comes from a strong rumor that the Asian
countries are becoming increasingly wary of the US debt as the
deficit rises. The Democrats announced today that the Iraq
action could cost $400 billion or more and drive the deficit
to even higher levels. Several analysts have said they expect
a $1 trillion deficit in 2004. With a trade war heating up and
potentially high tariffs being discussed for Asian goods the
worry is that Japan could stop buying US bonds. Since 46% of
our bonds are purchased by overseas countries with Japan being
a major portion of that number, any drop in purchases could
drive up interest rates. Considering Japan is one of the
largest US bond holders at over $500 billion according to
some estimates they could make the dollar/yen problem even
worse if they sold bonds and then sold the dollars in the
marketplace. China would love to jump on the wagon as they
have been buying something like $120 billion a year of US
debt. Together they have a big club over the US economy. If
they wanted to resort to financial terrorism or react to any
new tariffs they could dump bonds/dollars and our interest
rates would rocket to new highs and stop our recovery in its
tracks. While they are not likely to do that because they A)
have no other place to invest the money and b) depend on our
dollars to finance their retail trade. They could exercise
the threat of it to gain concessions from us. In order to do
this they might tighten the purse strings just enough to get
our attention. That is what traders are worried about. The
US debt market is already heavy with the massive debt
offerings (corporate and government) and any reduction of
buying from Asia could be enough to offset the delicate
balance. Stay tuned.

The market recovery today was branded as new money coming
into the market to buy the dip. It was also speculated that
it was end of quarter window dressing by funds. Whatever the
reason the Dow retraced almost exactly 50% of its Monday loss
which would have been 9576. It closed at 9571. The Nasdaq was
much stronger and came within five points of retracing 100%
of the drop. Internets, chips and biotechs all rose with
Internet stocks surpassing the Friday levels. Other sectors
that were strong included hotels, gaming and airline stocks.
AMZN rose to nearly $51 on no real news and dragged YHOO
along with it. Adding to the upbeat markets was a rise in
the hotel and gaming stocks with FS, HOT, MAR, HLT hitting
new 52-week highs. The only really negative sector was
defense after there were some negative comments about the
procurement process having run its course. LMT and GD were
two of the biggest losers.

The bottom line for me was an apparently successful day for
the markets. They shook off the panic drop from yesterday and
moved back on the attack again. After an initial bounce at
the open the indexes sold off and tested yesterday's lows
but the test was brief. We did not rocket off the bottom
but the trend was positive and gained speed on short covering
when the Dow broke the 9550 level to the upside. The bounce
was short lived as heavy sell volume appeared just before
the close but the bulls still managed a respectable showing.

Wednesday has no material economic reports with Mortgage
Applications the only number to be released. That should
show an increase with the drop in rates. The key will be the
Nikkei tonight. Tonight is the first time it has traded since
the -400 point drop on Sunday night. If it rebounds off the
bottom then we could expect our markets to open up in relief
that the potential bond bomb has been diffused. If funds are
really marking up their portfolios for the end of the quarter
statements then we are likely to go back to the recent highs
tomorrow. With a heavy slate of economics on Thursday they
will probably want to get in early and hope for short covering
to push them higher before any bad news. The last two days of
the week may not see any buying as the major earnings warnings
come to a close. That would be the prime time to confess before
the real earnings begin in October.

For a potentially bad period in the markets this week started
off bad but recovered well. The volume was light but the
internals were strong with up volume three times down volume.
For tomorrow Dow 9600 will be resistance as well as Nasdaq
1905. The S&P has resistance at 1032 and again at 1040. The
rebound is confounding the bears and the bulls alike. Even
the most adamant bulls feel like we should see a multiday
bout of profit taking to insure a better base for later but
the market is refusing to drop. Dip buying is alive and well
and shorts are paying dearly for their conviction. AMZN rose
nearly +3 on volume of 20 million shares. It is in the top
ten stocks with the most short interest and those shorts
are getting squeezed. I have been telling people this week
not to get married to any short positions just because this
week is marked with big red Xs on the calendar. What you
believe about market direction is not important if the market
is going against you. Capital preservation is important. The
Dow and the Nasdaq are continuing to build monster bearish
wedges but showing no signs of breaking down. Based on the
charts above we could easily test 9700/1925 on the next uptick.
The charts are painting a very tantalizing scenario for shorts
and luring them back into the market on every downtick only
to be surprised over and over again.

With this being the 3rd year of a presidential term and the
administration doing everything possible to juice the economy
I firmly believe we are going to see a continued bullish tone
to the market. I just expected a normal October dip from mutual
fund portfolio rebalancing first. But then, it is not October
yet and I can still rationalize the end of quarter markup
scenario as the reason for the bounce. I just keep wondering
what reason I am going rationalize next week.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown
Editor



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Investment Tech Group, Inc. - ITG - close: 21.12 change: +1.30

WHAT TO WATCH: With all its primary moving averages converging
near the $18 level and turning up, shares of ITG were due for a
breakout from the past 3 months of consolidation.  that breakout
arrived over the past 2 days and price pushed right up to the top
of the January gap near $21.25.  The stock may need to
consolidate a bit before continuing higher, but an initial move
to the $24-25 area seems likely.  A pullback and rebound from the
vicinity of $20 can be used to achieve a better entry point.




---

Autozone, Inc. - AZO - close: 94.09 change: +4.36

WHAT TO WATCH: AZO is getting back to its old ways of blowing
away analyst earnings estimates and repeated that familiar
process again yesterday with earnings of $2.24 vs. estimates of
$1.95.  Investors cheered on Tuesday, launching the stock higher
by nearly 5% on volume that quadrupled the ADV.   Look for a
pullback near the $92 level to provide a better entry and then
target a move to the century mark.




---

JetBlue Airways, Corp. - JBLU - close: 60.26 change: +2.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Airline stocks should all aspire to the heights
achieved by JBLU in the past 18-months and the stock notched
another new all-time high on Tuesday, as it was added to the S&P
MidCap 400 index tonight.  Look for favorable entries on a
pullback near the 10-dma or on a breakout above today's intraday
high of $60.50.




---

Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 30.19 change: +1.11

WHAT TO WATCH: There have been lots of stocks breaking to new 52-
week highs lately, but there are a lot less setting new all-time
highs.  SBUX added itself to that prestigious list on Tuesday
with its first close over the $30 level, which came on strong
volume.  Look for upside continuation to have the $32 and then
$34.50 levels in play.  Note how the stock seems to move in
roughly $2.50 increments and then consolidate for the next leg
up.  Look for favorable entry on an intraday pullback near the
$29.00-29.50 area.






===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

BSTE $37.65 - Who says there aren't any bearish plays out there?
Shares of BSTE have been getting pummeled the past few days,
losing another 4.8% on Tuesday.  With yesterday's break of the
200-dma, this slide could continue all the way to the $30 level.
The key is finding a favorable entry point, which would ideally
come on a failed rebound back near the $39.50-40.00 area.

PCLN $29.49 - Is PCLN losing out to the competition?  It
certainly seems that way from the look of the daily chart, with
the stock shedding another 7% on Tuesday.  There's the potential
for some support near current levels and that could give a
favorable bearish entry on a rollover below the 50-dma.  But a
drop below Tuesday's intraday low should have the $25 level in
reach before the week is out, at least by the looks of the huge
selling volume.

MERX $17.40 - The pattern of consolidation and then a fresh
breakout is very much alive in shares of MERX, as the stock
surged to another 52-week high today on strong volume.  Breaking
above the $16.50 resistance should now have the $20 level (the
top of the consolidation band from 2001-2002) in play.  Any
pullback near the $16.50 level should provide a favorable entry.



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================


More of the same
- J. Brown

Investor sentiment continues to be strongly bullish as the
markets shrugged off another day of dollar fears.  Leading the
headlines was President Bush's address to the United Nations
asking for unity to rebuild Iraq.  The markets failed to react
one way or the other to his speech.

The biggest clue to investor's mindset could be the internals.
The advance decline numbers were positive once again with 18
winners for every 10 losers on the NYSE and 19 advancers per 11
losers on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was more than double down volume
on the Big Board and almost four times down volume on the NASDAQ.

As one trader commented today, we have a lack of willing sellers.
Until investors decide to unload shares and lock in some profits
the general trend should be a drift higher.  The resiliency in
the tech sectors has probably driven hair-pulling bears to
baldness.  We're still hearing comments about a return to a
bubble mentality as the Internets like AMZN and YHOO etch new
highs.

Tomorrow is pretty quiet on the economic front and we'll be left
to the current prevailing winds, which still point higher.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9686
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9576

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9532
 50-dma: 9329
200-dma: 8676

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1040
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1029

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1024
 50-dma: 1000
200-dma:  929

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1406
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1388

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1388
 50-dma: 1302
200-dma: 1139


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Little change in the volatility or fear indices as investors
continue to show "no fear".

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.49 -0.16
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 26.98 -0.96

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.86        556,650       476,000
Equity Only    0.74        478,215       352,383
OEX            1.29         10,498        13,529
QQQ            2.74         27,007        74,023


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.1    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    81.0    + 1     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   83.3    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       82.2    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       86.0    - 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.08
10-Day Arms Index  1.14
21-Day Arms Index  1.05
55-Day Arms Index  1.02


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1809      1959
Decliners    1016      1153

New Highs     141       257
New Lows       10         2

Up Volume   1057M     1443M
Down Vol.    525M      373M

Total Vol.  1591M     1852M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

! The COT Website has NOT updated their data since 09/09/03.

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/09/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

No change in sentiment for the commercial traders here.  Meanwhile
small traders forked out a little more cash to increase both
their long and short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/19/03      404,665   455,381   (50,716)   (5.9%)
08/26/03      410,378   472,987   (62,609)   (7.1%)
09/02/03      417,973   482,392   (64,419)   (7.2%)
09/09/03      418,958   486,209   (67,251)   (7.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03      162,034    87,064    74,970    30.1%
08/26/03      170,424    76,967    93,457    37.8%
09/02/03      169,030    75,748    93,282    38.1%
09/09/03      176,401    81,444    94,957    36.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders in the e-minis continue to pump up their
long positions.  The last numbers show the most bullish
posture in quote sometime.  Meanwhile the small trader has
rotated a little bit of money from short back to long.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/19/03      296,971   235,779     61,192    11.5%
08/26/03      338,766   234,841    103,925    18.1%
09/02/03      347,724   224,011    123,713    21.6%
09/09/03      370,909   237,610    133,299    21.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       90,428   125,980   (35,552)  (16.4%)
08/26/03       52,131   120,853   (68,722)  (39.3%)
09/02/03       56,709   134,094   (77,385)  (40.6%)
09/09/03       59,692   130,270   (70,578)  (37.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders are increasing their bets on the NDX
but they're still beating more heavily on a move lower.
Small Traders are also active with larger net positions
but they're still beating on the bulls.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       32,107     53,665   (21,558) (25.1%)
08/26/03       33,991     55,849   (21,858) (24.3%)
09/02/03       37,002     55,379   (18,377) (19.9%)
09/09/03       44,677     62,369   (17,692) (16.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       25,607    10,134    15,473    43.3%
08/26/03       26,108     8,864    17,244    49.3%
09/02/03       23,168    10,561    12,607    37.4%
09/09/03       28,788    13,370    15,418    36.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

No change in investor sentiment for the professional traders
here.  There is little change for the small trader but they
have bumped up their long positions a tad.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/19/03       21,088    18,984    2,104       5.3%
08/26/03       24,586    10,386   14,200      40.6%
09/02/03       25,462    10,447   15,015      41.8%
09/09/03       25,807    10,756   15,051      41.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/19/03       15,717     9,143    6,574     26.4%
08/26/03       14,115     5,592    8,523     43.2%
09/02/03        6,629    13,402   (6,773)   (33.8%)
09/09/03        7,429    13,796   (6,367)   (30.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Tuesday 09-23-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Play of the Day:     Software Still Strong

Stop-Loss Adjustments: ADBE, FDC, ZMH

Active Trader Closed Play:  GOLD

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Play-of-the-Day  ( Bullish )
===============


Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 41.46 change: +1.38 stop: 39.25

Company Description:
A long-time leader in desktop publishing software, ADBE provides
graphic design, publishing, and imaging software for Web and
print production.  Offering a line of application software
products for creating, distributing, and managing information of
all types, the company generates nearly 75% of sales through
publishing software products such as Photoshop, Illustrator, and
PageMaker.  Its Acrobat Reader, which uses portable document
format (PDF) is popping up all over the Internet, as businesses
shift from print to digital communications.  In addition, ADBE
licenses its industry standard technologies to major hardware
manufacturers, software developers, and service providers, as
well as offering integrated software solutions to businesses of
all sizes.

Why we like it:
ADBE didn't waste any time, extending its gains from Wednesday,
as shares of this software stock surged over $41.50 on both
Thursday and Friday.  ADBE is now trading at levels not seen
since May of 2002 and if the bulls can clear the 5/02 highs of
$43.32, then it looks like a sure thing that we'll see a run to
next significant resistance in the $47-48 area.  We'll stick with
our recommendation for exiting the play at that point, as
reaching that height would virtually guarantee a serious bout of
profit taking.  New entries are simple at this point.  A pullback
to confirm support in the $39-40 area can be used by the dip
buyers, while momentum entries can be had on a breakout over
$41.65.  Look for continued strong volume and bullish action from
the Software index (GSO.X) to confirm new entries.  Our stop
remains at $38.75, which is just below the 20-dma, as well as the
top of the 9/11/03 gap.

Why This is our Play of the Day
Proving the bulls haven't given up in the least, shares of ADBE
burst higher out of the starting gate this morning, recouping all
of their Monday losses by the middle of the day and adding
fractionally to those gains by the closing bell.  That 3.44% gain
came on above average volume too, so traders that took advantage
of that entry point near $40 are looking pretty smart here
tonight.  We've been looking for the 20-dma ($39.28) to provide
solid support on the pullbacks, so it was encouraging to see
today's rebound launch off of the 10-dma ($39.94).  Successive
intraday rebounds from above $40 look attractive for new entries,
while momentum traders can use a move through $41.75 (just above
today's intraday high) to open new positions, especially if th3e
Software index (GSO.X) can finally push through its own
resistance near $146.  If entering on strength, don't forget that
ADBE will likely find some near-term resistance in the $43.00-
43.50 area, which is the site of the May 2002 highs.  Note that
we're raising our stop to $39.25, just under the 20-dma.

Annotated Chart of ADBE:


Picked on September 17th at  $40.47
Change since picked           +0.99
Earnings Date              12/10/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     3.10 mln



=========================
Stop-Loss Adjustments
=========================


ADBE – Raise from $38.75 up to $39.25

FDC – Raise from $40.35 up to $41.05

ZMH – Raise from $51.49 up to $53.00


===============================
ACTIVE TRADER (AT) CLOSED PLAYS
===============================


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Randgold - GOLD - close: 25.50 change: -0.86 - stop: 24.15

Late last week, we thought GOLD had gotten ahead of its
underlying commodity, gold, and the HUI, breaking out ahead of
them and then pausing while the sector and the commodity caught
up.  Both gold and the HUI, the gold bugs index, appeared ready
to break out of their own consolidation formations.  Both moved
up Monday, as did GOLD, but GOLD's higher close didn't tell the
entire story.  The stock created a bearish candle that closed far
nearer the low of the day than the high of the day.  Tuesday's
trade sent GOLD down further.  Although we like the way GOLD
bounced from its 10-dma and long-term trendline, showing that
trendline now to be holding as support, we don't like GOLD's
continued underperformance relative to its sector.  Volume has
been higher, too, although an examination of intraday volume
shows that the volume spike occurred as GOLD hit that trendline
and then bounced from it.  That could be a sign of accumulation,
but we're not going to wait around and see.  We're closing the
play.

Picked on Aug 24 at  23.40
Change since picked: +2.10
Earnings Date:    08/12/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  360 thousand




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ITG     Investment Technology      21.12     +1.30
AZO     AutoZone Inc               94.09     +4.36
CRMT    America's Car-Mart         27.86     +3.92
MHP     McGraw-Hill                61.85     +1.67
DUSA    DUSA Pharmaceuticals        6.45     +0.77
KZL     Kerzner Intl Ltd           37.60     +1.70

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

NICE    Nice-Systems Ltd           18.70     +1.65
CREE    CREE Inc                   19.59     +1.66
RHT     Right Mgmt Consultants     18.28     +2.33
GERN    Geron Corp                 14.80     +5.23
MERX    Merix Corp                 17.40     +1.29
VXGN    Vaxgen Inc                 12.55     +2.67

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

AMZN    Amazon.com                 50.44     +2.97
KIND    Kindred Healthcare         35.80     +2.34
OVTI    Omnivision Tech            49.89     +2.44
SBUX    Starbucks Corp             30.19     +1.11
JBLU    JetBlue Airways            60.26     +2.30
ERES    EResearch Tech             38.33     +4.12
HB      Hillenbrand Industries     57.64     +2.77

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

VZ      Verizon Communications     33.13     -1.58
BLS     BellSouth Corp             24.35     -1.04
LMT     Lockheed Martin            45.97     -1.85
GD      General Dynamics           79.69     -3.54
NOC     Northrup Grumman           87.96     -3.53
GYI     Getty Images               35.33     -2.50

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

GS      Goldman Sachs              89.06     -3.60
DRL     Doral Financial Corp       45.89     -2.18




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