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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 09/28/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-28-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Storm Warnings
Play-of-the-Day:  Leading the Way
Market Sentiment: Bully Scurry On Wall Street


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 9-26         WE 9-19         WE 9-12         WE 9-05
DOW     9313.08 -331.74 9644.82 +173.27 9471.55 - 31.79 + 87.52
Nasdaq  1792.07 -113.63 1905.70 + 50.67 1855.03 -  3.21 + 47.79
S&P-100  499.61 - 21.01  520.62 +  8.32  512.30 -  0.19 +  9.13
S&P-500  996.85 - 39.45 1036.30 + 17.67 1018.63 -  2.76 + 13.38
W5000   9646.48 -407.5910054.07 +176.76 9877.31 - 29.38 +136.23
RUT      485.28 - 34.92  520.20 + 11.14  509.06 +  0.19 + 11.45
TRAN    2663.83 -130.88 2794.71 + 59.11 2735.60 - 11.69 + 64.05
VIX       22.23 +  3.16   19.07 -  1.18   20.25 +  0.88 -  0.12
VXN       30.88 +  1.14   29.74 -  2.94   32.68 + 11.98 +  1.18
TRIN       1.42            1.35            1.11            1.04
Put/Call   0.98            0.68            0.90            0.72
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================


Storm Warnings
by Jim Brown

No, not another hurricane but the rumblings on the horizon are
growing and the storm clouds are beginning to gather. Investors
are putting the shutters on the windows and loading up on extra
put insurance as October approaches. Bullish investor sentiment
was extremely high last week so it is no surprise there may
be a change in climate ahead.

Economically Friday contained another batch of mixed messages
for the market with the GDP being revised up once again for
the 2Q to +3.3%. The gains came from a stronger inventory
build up than previously expected and gains in residential
building. While the headline number rose higher than expected
there were still some internal problems. Consumer spending
remained unchanged at +3.8% and the bounce in the headline
number was due mostly to the +6.6% jump in housing. Inventory
investment still remained negative as businesses continue to
lower risk and question future demand. Corporate after tax
profits fell even further to -5.0%. Overall the report was
positive but the buy the rumor sell the news crowd started
to whine that maybe the Q3 estimates which range from +4.9%
to as high as +7.0% could be too high. Duh! It appears the
bulls are starting to come off their six month high and the
headache of sobriety is starting to appear. Yes, the economy
is recovering, yes, earnings are going to be up and the GDP
could be over +4.0% but +7.0%? What we they thinking?

We also need to remember that the 2Q contained two months of
post war positioning for the coming recovery. You know, the
one that did not appear as expected. That GDP was built on
the hope that a quick war would take the worry out of the
economy and we would rebound to the moon. Also, the 2Q GDP
benefited in a +45.8% increase in the defense spending
component. This is the largest increase since 1951 and a
component that is not likely to be repeated. This sets up
the 3Q and 4Q for a disappointment if the economy does not
pick up the slack. A bright point in the GDP that could be
pointing to the next quarter leader was the jump in capital
spending for computers and software of +8.2%.

The only other major report was the Michigan Sentiment final
for September and it fell to 87.7 from 89.3. This makes the
3rd month of the last four that the index has declined from
the high of 92.1 in post war May. Present conditions and
future expectations both fell with the present conditions
taking the biggest hit. Lack of jobs continues to be the
biggest drag on sentiment followed by high energy prices.
Now that the tax rebate checks have passed consumers have
nothing to look forward to but winter. We will get the
nonfarm payrolls report next Friday and it is expected to
show a drop of -25,000 jobs or more.

The shortage of economic reports did not give the market
any good news to break it out of its dive. The news at the
open from Motorola was that they were going to have to
delay the delivery of their new highly featured phones for
the holidays. MOT traded down all day along with the chip
companies that feed the phones. About 3:PM MOT said that
the delay would not impact their broader line and they
would be shipping 31 new phones in the 4Q including 12
with cameras and 21 with color screens. This produced a
sharp rebound in its stock as shorts got squeezed.

The markets lost ground again on Friday and the Dow would
have been much worse had it not been for MMM. Banc of
America upgraded MMM from neutral to a buy and the stock
gained nearly +2.00 on a bad day. 3M also has a 2:1 stock
split that takes place after the close on Monday. Only
eight of the Dow components were positive for the day
and only MMM gained more than 50 cents.

You can scratch September off your investment calendar.
All the new highs and all the gains made in September are
now history. Without a miraculous recovery by Tuesday of
next week the month will close in the red. The Dow lost
-3.5% or -331 points last week. The Nasdaq dropped -6.0%,
-113 points. The Wilshire-5000 lost -407 points. Even the
transportation index got into the act with a drop of -131
points. The Russell dropped a whopping -35 points or nearly
-7%. Sectors that had been leaders got whacked badly. The
Biotech sector dropped -8.6%, Semiconductor -6.3% and
computers -6.6%. The Dow posted its worst weekly loss in
six months, the S&P in 8 months and the Nasdaq saw the worst
drop in 17 months. While all those negative numbers sound
terrible they have to be taken in context. The Nasdaq was
up +52% over just the last six months. Losing -6% is a
minor correction. The markets are still above the mid
August gains and well above July. That could be good news
or bad news depending on your point of view. It means we
have a nice cushion but it also means that cushion is likely
to get thinner.

The excuses for the correction are appearing from every
direction. Earnings worries, profit taking, portfolio
adjustment, year end fund selling, etc. I do not think it
is any one of those specifically but more likely just a
normal calendar correction that we have been expecting for
weeks. Nothing to worry about unless you are long. Whenever
the market tanks the talking heads on stock TV start grasping
for reasons to fill the airwaves and make it appear they know
what is going on. Sometimes they get it right. Regardless
of the reason for this drop it was expected and it will be
over soon. Soon on my calendar could be 1-3 weeks. Our
only task now is deciding where to go long.

According to First Call earnings for the 3Q are expected
to rise +19% for the S&P. The 4Q is currently pegged at
+22% to +26%. This is an amazing rebound on paper but when
you look at the same periods last year the comparisons
should be easy. Tech earnings for the year are expected
to be up +80%. Think about it, +80% from what? Many tech
companies lost money last year or barely broke even. Only
the big guys like MSFT, CSCO and INTC really piled it on
at the bottom of the bear market. The 3Q of last year was
the bottom of the bear market and that makes the comparisons
easy for Q3-2003 but it does not mean techs are raking in
the dough.

The economy must be getting better or companies have simply
cut their estimates to the point they have no risk in
making them. This time last year there had been over 500
earnings warnings for the quarter. This year there is less
than 50% of that number. Companies announcing positive
guidance are up +20% in the same period. The only problem
facing the markets now is confidence in the numbers. With
some analysts literally predicting a GDP over +6% for the
3Q there is a significant amount of hesitation on what to
believe.

Funds with large profits are trapped between holding on
to see if the fairy tale comes true or taking profits now
to preserve their strong gains. Hedge fund managers who
get paid out of the profits to the tune of 20%-50% of
the gains have got a huge bet riding on the line. If your
fund is up +30% to +70% for the year the urge to take
profits and lock in bonuses is very strong. This occurs
every year at this time so the event is not new. The only
difference is that there are huge profits this year instead
of the huge losses over the last two years. This makes the
urge to lock in now much stronger.

There is also an axiom on Wall Street to Sell Rosh Hashanah
(9/27) and buy Yom Kippur (10/06). Whether that is a valid
cycle or not remains to be seen but it definitely corresponds
with the normal end of September drop. Whatever the reason
you want to blame on the selling you have to admit that the
market sentiment has taken a negative turn. That turn may
not have much farther to go before it reaches the first
pause point.

The Dow stopped falling at 9300 Friday and that was the
initial support point we have been discussing. Should the
9300 level fail and I think that could happen next week we
could easily see the 25% retracement level at 9100 be the
next pause point. I am too bullish despite my skepticism
over the rate of recovery to expect the Dow to break 9000.
There is simply too much support between 9000-9100 for the
bears to break. It is possible but we should see a huge buy
the dip move between 9000-9100. Should that break it could
severely damage the bullish case and a rapid drop to the
50% retracement level at 8550 could result. Again, I do
not expect that but we need to be aware of the potential.
One critical note from Friday was the break of the Dow
50-dma at 9350. It was actually broken slightly on Thursday
but the Dow rebounded to 9358 on Friday and then failed
again significantly. This should be seen as a definite sign
of more weakness ahead.

Dow Chart


The Nasdaq was the biggest loser for the week but it is still
in danger of dropping further. The next support is 1750 which
is about 42 points away. The most likely target is still the
risk range between 1600-1650. That sounds terrible but even
the worst case drop to 1600 is only another -10% drop and
considering the gains would just be a normal October
correction. The Nasdaq broke a critical level on Friday and
closed under 1800. This was a psychological level and was
critical for bullish sentiment. Every century mark the index
gives up puts it just that much farther from 2000 in the eyes
of the bulls. The odds are very good we are not going to drop
straight to 1600 next week or the week after. Any drop under
1750 will be accompanied by plenty of kicking and screaming
and dip buying. The Nasdaq has not broken the 50-dma at 1775
but it is very close.

Nasdaq Chart


The broader market index of the S&P came within 2 points of
decent support at 992 on Friday. The next critical support
is 975 and 965. The 975 level should be a substantial stopping
point and we could see a decent bounce. Under 965 support is
pretty thin until 943 or so but if we break the 965 level the
market will have worse problems to deal with. The S&P also
broke its 50 DMA at 1001 on Friday. It was support in late
August but has already failed in the current drop.

S&P Chart


Next week is filled with economic reports that could be
critical to sustaining the longer term rally or accelerating
the dip. Monday is light with Personal Income and Spending
but the pace picks up on Tuesday with NY-NAPM, Consumer
Confidence, PMI and Risk of Recession. Wednesday has ISM,
Construction Spending and Challenger Layoff Report. Thursday
has Jobless Claims and Factory Orders followed by Nonfarm
Payrolls on Friday. The biggies of course are the NAPM, ISM
and Nonfarm Payrolls. ISM is expected to be flat and that
should raise some eyebrows. If the GDP is going to blow out
at +7% then why should the ISM show no growth? Could be some
reeling in of expectations. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is
expected to show a loss of -25,000 jobs. Last month they
were expecting it to be flat and it lost -93,000. If they
miss on the downside again it could cause concern. The upside
would be another serious drop in jobs could provoke the Fed
to launch another stimulus program. I doubt it would be a
rate cut but they might feel driven to do something else
to provide stimulus.

For next week traders should look to be light on their feet
and not get married to any longs OR shorts for that matter.
With the previous bullishness in the market the volatility
could be huge. Whenever I say that I get emails saying "what
does that mean?" It is a polite way of saying we could move
a hundred points in either direction at a moments notice.
You never know what level will trigger a monster buy program
that causes shorts to run for cover on heavy volume. Also,
for every buy program there could be a hedge fund just hoping
for the next rebound to dump another load into the bounce.
This erratic behavior means you can be stopped out on both
longs and shorts in the same day and possibly more than once.



The best plan for the next two weeks is sell any unreasonable
spikes and buy any bounces off support. The chart above shows
an example of an unreasonable spike. After two days of
declines a strong buy program triggered at 985 in the middle
of the day and the shorts were caught completely off guard.
The buy program was in response to the unreasonable drop at
the beginning of the day which was also totally out of
character. So buy unreasonable drops, sell unreasonable
spikes and buy known support levels. That support on the S&P,
rather use that than the Dow for obvious reasons, is 990-992,
975, 965. Resistance is 1012, 1020, 1030. Sell resistance,
buy support and take profits early.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================


Biovail Corp. - BVF - close: 36.75 change: -0.35 stop: 40.00

Company Description:
Biovail Corporation is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the
development, manufacture and marketing of medications utilizing
advanced drug delivery technologies for the treatment of chronic
medical conditions.  The company's primary focus is on three
major areas: cardiovascular (including Type II diabetes), central
nervous system and pain management.  The company also has a full-
service independent Contract Research Division that provides
clinical research and laboratory testing services for its product
development projects and for third-party international and
domestic pharmaceutical companies, including several
developmental partners.

Why we like it:
Normally defensive stocks like Pharmaceuticals and Health
Care related issues have provided no shelter for investors
during this latest round of selling, as the Pharmaceutical
index (DRG.X) headed straight south last week, barely
holding above its 200-dma on Friday.  Shares of BVF have
been trying to put in a bottom over the past 2 months,
rebounding from the 200-dma on 3 different occasions.  That
all came to a screeching halt last week, as selling in the
broad market intensified the downward move already in
progress and the stock ended the week with an 11% loss.  The
real key was the break of the 200-dma (currently $38.77) on
Wednesday, which opened the door for the stock to continue
sharply lower and Friday's close just fractionally eclipsed
the closing low from late July.  The stock went back on a
PnF Sell signal with yesterday's trade below $38, and the
current vertical count is $30.

After last week's sharp slide, BVF seems overdue for an
oversold rebound.  The extent of that rebound will give us
an idea of the viability of this play to the downside.  Look
for a rebound failure in the $38.00-38.75 area to provide
the best entry point, with additional resistance provided at
the 200-dma.  Traders that would prefer to enter on weakness
will want to wait for a decline under $35, which will take
out the late-July and early-May lows.  After that support
gives way, look for BVF to make its way down to the $30
level, which in addition to being the current PnF vertical
count, is also the site of strong historical support.  Given
the fact that a near-term bounce is likely, place stops
initially at $40.00, which will be above the 50-dma
(currently $40.10) by early next week.

Annotated Chart of BVF:


Picked on September 28th at  $36.75
Change since picked           +0.00
Earnings Date              10/28/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     2.07 mln





================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================


Bully Scurry On Wall Street
-J. Brown

Five out of the last six sessions for the DJIA and the S&P 500
have been negative with the selling picking up speed in the last
three days.  Bulls are running for cover as the bears finally
make an appearance during their traditional September feeding
time.  The $INDU lost 3.5 percent last week with the NASDAQ
Composite dropping even faster, down 5.5 percent.

The recent weakness was very wide spread as bears made their late
September appearance an international one.  The G7 finance summit
launched a worldwide drop after issuing a statement to deter
currency manipulation.  The dollar quickly fell against the yen
and the Japanese NIKKEI average lost almost 900 points off its
fresh 15-month high.  European exchanges also lost ground as
traders took profits, expecting the weaker dollar to impact
exporters to the U.S.

At the same time gold bugs witnessed their beloved metal mark a
fresh 7-year high before promptly falling.  The XAU gold & silver
index has really taken a beating the last two sessions, falling
out of its rising channel.  Yet gold (December) futures remain in
their own rising channel and above the $380 an ounce mark.

The profit taking has been strong and all of September's gains
have evaporated into losses marking 2003 as yet one more year
where the historical trends have held in place.  Yet as Jim
mentions in the wrap this weekend, looking at the YTD gains for
the major indices this week's drop is nothing but overdue.  We
still have one week before the October earnings season begins and
this coming week is full of economic reports to stall the fall or
accelerate it.

From the looks of it the markets still have further downside with
the DJIA's breakdown below the 50-dma, which was duplicated by
the S&P 500.  Furthermore, we could still see more window
"undressing" with the end of the quarter on Tuesday as funds take
some profits.




-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9686
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9313

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9505
 50-dma: 9342
200-dma: 8687

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1040
52-week Low :  768
Current     :  996

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1020
 50-dma: 1001
200-dma:  930

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1406
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1309

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1362
 50-dma: 1305
200-dma: 1144


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The volatility indices are still bouncing higher but have yet to
truly mark a trend change or any relative new highs but this could
change if the major indices keep dropping.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 22.23 -0.03
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 30.88 +0.23

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.98        575,209       562,769
Equity Only    0.87        420,092       364,314
OEX            0.55         31,050        17,233
QQQ            5.63         17,408        98,060


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          71.8    - 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    79.0    + 0     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       78.2    - 3     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       80.0    - 4     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.66
10-Day Arms Index  1.29
21-Day Arms Index  1.17
55-Day Arms Index  1.07


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     876       778
Decliners    1917      2281

New Highs      51        83
New Lows       23         8

Up Volume    441M      178M
Down Vol.   1225M     1642M

Total Vol.  1716M     1831M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/23/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

The latest option/futures expiration appears to have reduced
some outstanding positions and commercial shorts saw the biggest
drop.  Suddenly, professional longs are dead even with shorts.
Meanwhile, small traders closed a large chunk of long positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/26/03      410,378   472,987   (62,609)   (7.1%)
09/02/03      417,973   482,392   (64,419)   (7.2%)
09/09/03      418,958   486,209   (67,251)   (7.4%)
09/23/03      395,123   397,858   ( 2,735)   (0.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/26/03      170,424    76,967    93,457    37.8%
09/02/03      169,030    75,748    93,282    38.1%
09/09/03      176,401    81,444    94,957    36.8%
09/23/03      139,482    87,981    51,501    22.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

We have a major reversal in the works here.  Commercial long
positions dropped about 260K, instantly changing sentiment to
bearish.  Small traders had a change of heart and suddenly
went excessively long, which is ironic now that the SPX just
broke support.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/26/03      338,766   234,841    103,925    18.1%
09/02/03      347,724   224,011    123,713    21.6%
09/09/03      370,909   237,610    133,299    21.9%
09/23/03      109,417   204,026   ( 94,609)  (30.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/26/03       52,131   120,853   (68,722)  (39.3%)
09/02/03       56,709   134,094   (77,385)  (40.6%)
09/09/03       59,692   130,270   (70,578)  (37.1%)
09/23/03      175,750    62,558   113,192    47.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

The recent expiration appears to have reduced the number
of outstanding positions but sentiment remains bearish for
commercials and bullish for small traders.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/26/03       33,991     55,849   (21,858) (24.3%)
09/02/03       37,002     55,379   (18,377) (19.9%)
09/09/03       44,677     62,369   (17,692) (16.5%)
09/23/03       32,648     42,565   ( 9,917) (13.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/26/03       26,108     8,864    17,244    49.3%
09/02/03       23,168    10,561    12,607    37.4%
09/09/03       28,788    13,370    15,418    36.6%
09/23/03       17,862     9,880     7,982    28.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The same can be said for the $INDU futures with outstanding
positions dropping, the sentiment remains the same with
commercials feeling bullish.  However, small traders are
feeling a lot more neutral with a drop in short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/26/03       24,586    10,386   14,200      40.6%
09/02/03       25,462    10,447   15,015      41.8%
09/09/03       25,807    10,756   15,051      41.2%
09/23/03       15,911     9,123    6,788      27.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/26/03       14,115     5,592    8,523     43.2%
09/02/03        6,629    13,402   (6,773)   (33.8%)
09/09/03        7,429    13,796   (6,367)   (30.0%)
09/23/03        7,505     7,779   (  274)   ( 1.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-28-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  ADBE
  Bearish Play Updates:  UTSI

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bearish Plays:     BVF
  Bullish Play Updates:  FMX, TYC, ZMH

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     ASKJ
  Bullish Play Updates:  ORB, DRTE
  Clossed Bullish Plays: GLW


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 40.65 change: -0.66 stop: 39.25

It was a see-saw week for our ADBE play as it bounced between
$40-42 in volatile fashion.  In light of the strong selling in
the broad market, especially technology shares, we're impressed
with how well ADBE held up.  The Software index (GSO.X) slid
sharply over the past 3 days (down 6.2%), and still the bulls
managed to defend the $40 level in ADBE.  Further selling in the
GSO might finally crack the bulls' resolve, but a rebound from
the $39.50-40.00 area still looks like a viable entry strategy.
Note that the 20-dma has risen to $39.64 and should reinforce
that support zone.  More conservative traders may want to wait
for a rebound in the GSO to drive ADBE above $42 (Thursday's
intraday high) before playing.  Maintain stops at $39.25.

Picked on September 17th at  $40.47
Change since picked           +0.18
Earnings Date              12/10/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     3.08 mln




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

UTStarcom, Inc. - UTSI - cls: 31.24 chng: -1.75 stop: 35.25*new*

We couldn't have asked for a better start to our UTSI play, as
the stock cracked below our $35 trigger shortly after the open on
Thursday and quickly plunged as low as $31.72 before finally
finding some buying interest.  The subsequent rebound ran out of
steam near the $34 level and tipped over into the close, with
NASDAQ stocks being sold into slavery in the final hour.
Friday's session didn't go any better for the bulls, as UTSI
gapped down and headed steadily lower right into the closing
bell.  Once again, selling volume was strong and the stock
appears destined to tag our initial target of $30 early next
week.  Conservative traders may want to harvest some gains near
that level, while those willing to hold on stand a better than
even chance of seeing the stock fall all the way to our final
target at $28, currently right at the 200-dma.  Another failed
rebound below $34 looks like the best setup for new entries, as
chasing the stock lower from current levels seems a bit too
aggressive, given the 15% slide in the past 4 sessions.  Lower
stops to $35.25.

Picked on September 24th at  $35.08
Change since picked           -3.84
Earnings Date              10/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     3.72 mln





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Biovail Corp. - BVF - close: 36.75 change: -0.35 stop: 40.00

Company Description:
Biovail Corporation is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the
development, manufacture and marketing of medications utilizing
advanced drug delivery technologies for the treatment of chronic
medical conditions.  The company's primary focus is on three
major areas: cardiovascular (including Type II diabetes), central
nervous system and pain management.  The company also has a full-
service independent Contract Research Division that provides
clinical research and laboratory testing services for its product
development projects and for third-party international and
domestic pharmaceutical companies, including several
developmental partners.

Why we like it:
Normally defensive stocks like Pharmaceuticals and Health Care
related issues have provided no shelter for investors during this
latest round of selling, as the Pharmaceutical index (DRG.X)
headed straight south last week, barely holding above its 200-dma
on Friday.  Shares of BVF have been trying to put in a bottom
over the past 2 months, rebounding from the 200-dma on 3
different occasions.  That all came to a screeching halt last
week, as selling in the broad market intensified the downward
move already in progress and the stock ended the week with an 11%
loss.  The real key was the break of the 200-dma (currently
$38.77) on Wednesday, which opened the door for the stock to
continue sharply lower and Friday's close just fractionally
eclipsed the closing low from late July.  The stock went back on
a PnF Sell signal with yesterday's trade below $38, and the
current vertical count is $30.

After last week's sharp slide, BVF seems overdue for an oversold
rebound.  The extent of that rebound will give us an idea of the
viability of this play to the downside.  Look for a rebound
failure in the $38.00-38.75 area to provide the best entry point,
with additional resistance provided at the 200-dma.  Traders that
would prefer to enter on weakness will want to wait for a decline
under $35, which will take out the late-July and early-May lows.
After that support gives way, look for BVF to make its way down
to the $30 level, which in addition to being the current PnF
vertical count, is also the site of strong historical support.
Given the fact that a near-term bounce is likely, place stops
initially at $40.00, which will be above the 50-dma (currently
$40.10) by early next week.

Annotated Chart of BVF:


Picked on September 28th at  $36.75
Change since picked           +0.00
Earnings Date              10/28/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     2.07 mln




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Femsa Fomento - FMX - close: 37.78 change: -0.21 - stop: 36.59

After climbing out of its consolidation band earlier this week,
FMX hasn't yet hit our trigger, set above Wednesday's $38.76
high.  Volume dropped off while FMX tested recently broken
support, a pattern consistent with consolidation.  If FMX does
rise and hit our trigger, it will have built a stronger base,
establishing former resistance as support.  We're willing to
wait, letting that process occur.

An interesting development occurred in the Mexican bottling
industry this week.  According to an AP article, the Mexican
government proposes to change the way tequila is bottled and sold
in the U.S.  Currently about 83 percent of the tequila is bottled
in the U.S. after being shipped in bulk from Mexico.  The Mexican
government wants to ban those bulk shipments, ostensibly
protecting product quality.  Others suspect that the measure is
intended to keep jobs in Mexico.  The government proposes to put
the measure into effect in January 2005, giving the Mexican
companies time to prepare.  While FMX bottles beer and soft
drinks, we wonder if the proposal might eventually benefit FMX
and other Mexican bottlers, if enacted.  We took a look at on-
balance volume, a measure of whether volume increases on up moves
or down moves, and OBV has been increasing strongly since early
August.  Perhaps others are wondering if FMX will benefit, too.

That development's impact on FMX remains uncertain, however.  As
we study the chart, we see MACD slanting generally up, but
flattening slightly as it moves above signal.  Stochastics and
RSI hinge down, indicating that FMX might not yet be through
consolidating.  Prices might even decline toward the grouped
averages between the current level and $37.39.  FMX is still
fomenting its next move.

Annotated Chart for FMX:


Picked on Sep 24 at  38.46
Change since picked: -0.68
Earnings Date:    07/28/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  299 thousand



----

TYCO - TYC - close: 20.82  change: -0.21 - stop: 19.99

TYC announced many changes in corporate leadership this week.
Wednesday, we mentioned TYC's appointment of GE veteran James
Harman to serve as VP of advertising and branding, with Harman
entrusted with the goal of rebuilding TYC's image.  Thursday, the
company created a new VP position over Environment, Health and
Safety.  Robert Frantz, the new VP, also hails from a GE
division.  Those announcements, in which the company positioned
itself as a company moving away from its former detrimental
image, was combated by news surrounding the next week's trial of
former TYC Chairman Dennis Kozlowski.

Amid general market weakness, we're not sure that investors paid
much attention to any of those developments.  Volume dropped as
TYC began its end-of-week slide down toward its supporting
trendline.  Friday's candle was a small-bodied candle.  TYC
managed a close above the trendline and also above the still-
rising 21-dma.

As TYC approached its trendline, so did RSI approach its own
trendline.  RSI appears to be flattening slightly, as it did on
the last two approaches before its upturn.  Next week, watch for
an upturn of the RSI along its trendline as an early sign of
returning strength.  With an RSI bounce from its trendline and a
TYC bounce from current levels, traders could consider new
entries, but confirm general market strength before doing so.  A
punch down through that RSI trendline might indicate that TYC
will soon break support, too, as the RSI often leads.  An RSI
trendline break might also confirm weakness in TYC.

Annotated Chart for TYC:


Picked on Sep 21 at  21.90
Change since picked: -1.08
Earnings Date:    07/29/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    8 million



----

Zimmer Holdings - ZMH - close: 55.52 change: +0.65 - stop: 53.00

Amid general market weakness, ZMH managed a 1.85 percent gain on
Friday.  It outperformed medical-device companies SYK and MDT,
both of which declined Friday.  Although the RXP, the Morgan
Stanley Health Care Products, does not include ZMH as a
component, it does include the other two companies, and the RXP
also lost ground Friday.

ZMH appears to be building support above the midline of its
rising regression channel, perhaps preparing to repeat last
week's charge up to the top of the channel.  The 10-dma has risen
beneath the current prices, and the 21-dma is not far behind.
MACD still slants generally upward, and we were especially
pleased to see the way RSI appears to be turning up after
approaching its rising trendline.  As we mentioned earlier this
week, an RSI decline beneath that trendline might not be
particularly meaningful in ZMH's case.  That trendline has risen
so high that it's due to be violated soon on even a small RSI
dip.

Perhaps some traders used the pullback and Friday's small bounce
as an entry.  Those who did not might note that ZMH printed an
inside-day candle.  Using the inside-day technique and
correlating it with the top of the recent consolidation,
aggressive traders might consider new entries on a move above
$55.80.  Those entries face another possible pullback as ZMH soon
hits the top of its rising channel again, however.  So far, those
pullbacks continue to be shallow and not particularly worrisome,
but readers considering new breakout entries should be aware of
the possibility.

Annotated Chart for ZMH:


Picked on Sep 17 at   53.87
Change since picked:  +1.65
Earnings Date:    07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  2.2 million





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Ask Jeeves, Inc. - ASKJ - close: 17.15  change: -2.55 - stop:

Company Description:
Ask Jeeves, Inc. is a provider of Web-wide search technologies,
providing consumers with authoritative and fast ways to find
relevant information to their everyday searches. Ask Jeeves
deploys its search technologies on Ask Jeeves (Ask.com and
Ask.co.uk), Teoma.com, and Ask Jeeves for Kids (AJKids.com). In
addition to its Web sites, Ask Jeeves syndicates its monetized
search technology and advertising units to a network of affiliate
partners. Ask Jeeves is based in Emeryville, California, with
offices in New York, Boston, New Jersey, Los Angeles and London.

Why We Like It:
Internet-related stocks accelerated their gains over recent
months, and ASKJ zoomed up along with the rest.  One source lists
its 52-week range as $0.92 to $22.75.  Along the way, ASKJ
garnered a few initializations of coverage from analysts, with
Deutsche Bank and First Albany listing the company as a buy with
target prices of $17 and $18, respectively.  Other firms listed
ASKJ at less appealing equal-weight, peer-perform, or market-
perform ratings.

That $22.75 high occurred just this week, but ASKJ has fallen
hard since then.  Friday's almost 13 percent decline trumped the
more modest decline of the INX, the CBOE Internet Index, but was
matched by the significant declines in Internet-related stocks
such as SOHU, SINA, and NTES, some of which also provide
directory-type services.  The decline took ASKJ below its 50-dma.
The stock also closed below one of the many rising trendlines
that can be drawn fanning out below ASKJ's current price.  The
rise has been so steep that those trendlines are numerous,
shooting off a various angles.  Pick a level, and there's a
trendline.

We're paying more attention to other technical developments than
we are to those numerous trendlines.  One technical development
is ASKF's fall below important moving averages and another can be
found in the bearish configuration of the daily indicators.
We're also paying attention to the P&F high pole warning Friday's
trading created.  A trade below $16.50 will create a new sell
signal on ASKJ, its first sell signal this year.

We're in a quandary on the entry for this bearish play.  The
ideal entry would occur on a bounce and rollover from anywhere
beneath $20.00.  ASKJ's close near the steepest of its rising
trendlines suggest that it might attempt that rise.  Intraday
indicators register levels showing oversold conditions.  However,
those indicators have not yet turned up, and the intraday
candlestick formations hint at a possible bearish "b"
distribution pattern.  That type of pattern often breaks to the
downside.  Daily MACD, stochastics, and RSI configurations hint
at much more downside before a bounce.

Conservative traders might want to watch for that bounce and
rollover, foregoing the play if the bounce never occurs, while
traders who like momentum plays could consider a momentum entry
on a fall beneath Friday's low.  That play would be an aggressive
play taking on maximum risk, however.  Our target is $14.25, just
above the $14.00 support, but the initial stop is placed at
$20.76.  That's a reasonable stop for a rollover entry but a wide
one for a momentum entry below Friday's low.

Annotated Chart for ASKJ:


Picked on Sep 28 at $17.15
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    10/22/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Orbital Sciences - ORB - cls: 9.22  chng: +0.00 - stop: 8.99

Analysts did their best to shoot down the defense-related sector
this week, with Smith Barney, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley
all cutting their outlook on the sector.  Although the DFI, the
defense index, does not include ORB as one of its components, ORB
struggled along with other defense-related issues.

That struggle took ORB to the bottom of its rising channel.
Friday, it again opened lower, but held steady, perhaps finding
support at the bottom of the channel and the 30-dma, an average
that has been supporting its climb since May.  ORB printed a
small-bodied candle with an upper shadow that tested the 21-dma.
That type of candle sometimes serves as the second candle of a
three-candle reversal signal.  The confirmation of that reversal
signal would come from a higher trade Monday, with a closing
price higher than the opening price.

Volume expanded slightly again as ORB climbed on Friday, also a
gratifying sign.  ORB is not yet cleared for launching, however.
MACD remains bearish.  New entries could still be found on
bounces from the current level, but first confirm strength in the
DFI.

Annotated Chart for ORB:


Picked on Sep 3 at   $9.18
Change since picked: +0.04
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand



---

Dendrite Int'l - DRTE - close: 14.94 change: -0.31 stop: 13.60

Given the way that it was ignoring the broad market weakness,
DRTE looked like it might continue its breakout, but the
intensified selling on Thursday finally cracked the bullish
facade.  Over the past couple sessions, the stock has begun to
roll over, albeit in a gentle and declining-volume manner.  This
nascent pullback is forcing us to redirect our attention to the
long-term ascending channel, which should continue to contain
price action.  There's the possibility of support holding near
$14.50, supported by the 20-dma ($14.46) and that would make for
a decent entry point.  On a more severe pullback, look for
support to be found near the 50-dma ($13.85), just above the
bottom of the channel.  Entries at either of those levels should
provide plenty of upside potential for the next trip to the top
of the channel (currently $16.40).  Maintain stops at $13.60.

Picked on September 24th at  $15.55
Change since picked           -0.61
Earnings Date              10/23/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        181 K




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Corning, Inc. - GLW - cls: 9.01  change: -0.01 - stop: 8.98

Friday, the $SML, the S&P Smallcap Index, fell 1.82 percent, and
the high-flying small caps came to ground.  GLW fell, too,
stopping us out of the long play early in the morning.  By the
end of the day, GLW had climbed off that day's low, closing just
above its 21-dma and our stop. GLW also printed the second candle
of a possible reversal signal, but it's far from clear whether
next week's action will complete that reversal signal.  MACD
lines turned down and touched, with the MACD histogram now below
signal.  Volume fell as the week progressed and GLW declined, but
still remained significantly above the daily average.

Picked on Sep 17 at   $9.35
Change since picked:  -0.34
Earnings Date:    07/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  6.8 million





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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-28-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of September 29th, 2003
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

===========================================
Market Watch for the week of September 22nd
===========================================


Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

WAG    Walgreen              Mon, Sep 29  Before the Bell   0.27

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

STZ    Constellation Brands  Tue, Sep 30  After the Bell    0.64
PBG    Pepsi Bottling Group  Tue, Sep 30  Before the Bell   0.66


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

FDO    Family Dollar         Wed, Oct 01  Before the Bell  0.28


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

None


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

ATYT   ATI Technologies      Fri, Oct 03  Before the Bell  0.10
AVT    Avnet                 Fri, Oct 03  -----N/A-----    0.09


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable


SAFE    Invivo Corp               3:2      Sep  26th   Sep  29th
CCBI    Commercial Capital Bancorp3:2      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
KVA     KV Pharmaceutical         3:2      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
MMM     3M                        2:1      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
ABVA    Alliance Bankshares Corp  3:2      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
PLMD    PolyMedica Corp           2:1      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
WERN    Werner Enterprises Inc    5:4      Sep  30th   Oct   1st
GPRO    Gen-Probe Inc             2:1      Sep  30th   Oct   1st
BMTC    Bryn Mawr Bank Corp       2:1      Oct   1st   Oct   2nd
MYL     Mylan Laboratories Inc    3:2      Oct   8th   Oct   9th

--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

It's the end of the Quarter on Tuesday.  Will we see window
dressing or undressing?  With just a week or two before the
Q3 earnings announcements, the markets will be driven by the
parade of economic reports this week.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 09/29/03
----------------
Personal Income (BB)     Aug  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.2%
Personal Spending (BB)   Aug  Forecast:    0.8%  Previous:     0.8%


-----------------
Tuesday, 09/30/03
-----------------
Consumer Confidence(DM) Sep  Forecast:    82.0  Previous:     81.3
Chicago PMI (DM)        Sep  Forecast:    55.5  Previous:     58.9


-------------------
Wednesday, 10/01/03
-------------------
Auto Sales (NA)         Sep  Forecast:    6.1M  Previous:     6.1M
Truck Sales (NA)        Sep  Forecast:    8.1M  Previous:     9.3M
ISM Index (DM)          Sep  Forecast:    55.0  Previous:     54.7
Construction Spendng(DM)Aug  Forecast:    0.4%  Previous:     0.2%
API weekly statistics
Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference
RBC Capital Markets Consumer Conference

------------------
Thursday, 10/02/03
------------------
Initial Claims  (BB)  09/27  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     381K
Factory Orders (DM)     Aug  Forecast:    0.6%  Previous:     1.6%
Natural Gas Inventories

----------------
Friday, 10/03/03
----------------
Nonfarm Payrolls (BB)   Sep  Forecast:    -30K  Previous:     -93K
Unemployment Rate (BB)  Sep  Forecast:    6.2%  Previous:     6.1%
Hourly Earnings (BB)    Sep  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
Average Workweek (BB)   Sep  Forecast:    33.7  Previous:     33.6
ISM Index (DM)          Sep  Forecast:    63.8  Previous:     65.1


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

AT      Alltel Corp                46.71    +0.85
JHF     John Hancock Fin Svcs In   34.30    +2.25


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ZIGO    Zygo Corp                  45.02    +1.60


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

MMM     3M Company                143.45    +1.84
RIMM    Research In Motion Ltd     37.29    +1.57
BKMU    Bank Mutual Corp           43.00    +2.70


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

RTP     Rio Tinto Plc (ADR)        87.50    -1.10
CCU     Clear Channel Comm Inc     36.98    -1.11
CCL     Carnival Corp              32.91    -1.26
OMC     Omnicom Group Inc          72.40    -1.90
MFC     Manulife Financial Corp    30.20    -1.13
HCA     HCA Inc                    34.55    -1.01
ERTS    Electonic Arts Inc         81.75    -1.84
KB      Kookmin Bank               32.58    -1.58
MEDI    Medimmune Inc              32.00    -2.06
AU      Anglogold Ltd              36.95    -1.95
RCL     Royal Caribbean Cruises    28.53    -1.63


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

FDO     Family Dollar Stores Inc   40.86    -0.41
LM      Legg Mason Inc             72.79    -1.65
BVN     Compania De Minas Buena    38.56    -2.08
FAF     First American Corp        24.23    -0.18
TMA     Thornburg Mortgage Inc     24.80    -0.33
IDXX    Idexx Laboratories Inc     43.04    -0.77



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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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