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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 09/29/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 09-29-2003
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Oversold, Window Dressing Bounce
Play of the Day:  Nice Bounce!

===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
      09-29-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9380.24 + 67.16  9395.32  9293.22 1.56 bln   1991/ 839
NASDAQ   1824.56 + 32.49  1824.59  1786.57 1.66 bln   1880/1195
S&P 100   505.02 +  5.41   505.03   499.23   Totals   3871/2034
S&P 500  1006.58 +  9.73  1006.89   995.31
RUS 2000  492.71 +  7.42   492.86   482.13
DJ TRANS 2710.29 + 46.46  2710.42  2660.66
VIX        21.67 -  0.56    22.85    21.64
VXN        30.66 -  0.22    31.88    30.62
Total Volume 3,222M
Total UpVol  2,365M
Total DnVol    803M
52wk Highs      56
52wk Lows       68
PUT/CALL      0.84
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========


Oversold, Window Dressing Bounce
by James Brown

The U.S. markets ended a three-day slide with a bounce as we step
one day closer to ending the third quarter.  The morning session
was actually rather weak as traders pulled back over concerns for
the drop in the U.S. dollar.  The $INDU pierced the 9300 mark
shortly after 11:00 AM ET before rebounding skyward more than 100
points.  Many commentators remarked that after last week's
painful sell-off the markets were short-term oversold and due for
a bounce.  Combine that with the normal end-of-quarter window
dressing by fund managers who sell some of their worst losers and
buy recent market winners to improve the look of their portfolio
and it's not much of a surprise to see the major indices green
today.

The bounce today was wide spread with every major sector index
trading higher save for the RLX retail index, which closed down
fractionally.  Wal-Mart continues to sing the same tune that
weekly sales are ringing in at the high-end of their estimates
but investors chose to react to negative news from J.C.Penney
(JCP).  JCP said its department stores' same-store sales were
coming in at the low-end of its forecast, while its catalog and
Internet sales were doing better than expected.  The American
consumer continues to endure the weak job market but they appear
focused on stretching that dollar at the checkout counter.  This
morning's economic reports showed that August Personal Spending
rose 0.8 percent, which was in-line with expectations.  The
August Personal Income data settled at +0.2 percent, below
estimates of +0.3 percent.

Speaking of the dollar, the U.S. greenback dropped to a new
three-year low against the Japanese yen and a fresh three-month
low against the euro.  Rumors were flying this morning.  One of
them was that the Bush administration had changed their stance on
a "strong" dollar.  Treasury Department spokesman Rob Nichols was
widely quoted today with his comment, "We are not going to
respond to every goofy market rumor on currencies...there is no
change in policy."  Nichol's comments did little to stem the
decline in the dollar, which dropped against 15 of the 16 most
widely traded currencies.  Thus far the Bank of Japan has not
intervened since the G7 meeting last week but word has it
Japanese officials are blistering under the sudden rise in the
yen against the dollar.  The dollar's move below the 111 level
against the yen was also fueled by speculation that U.S. Treasury
Secretary Snow is planning to be tougher on global trade issues
with Japan.  Meanwhile the strength in the euro spiked higher on
what many believed was a wave of short-covering when the euro
passed $1.155 against the dollar.  The euro closed at $1.1608
against the dollar.

This weakness in the U.S. dollar against the yen had Asian
markets falling again.  The Japanese NIKKEI dropped 88 points to
10,299 while the Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 148 points to
11,141.  European exchanges were also lower but the declines were
shallow.  Market internals here at home were mostly bullish but
not excessively so.  Advancing stocks beat decliners 19 to 8 on
the NYSE and almost 19 to 12 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was two to
three times down volume on both exchanges but over all volume was
modest.  The Dow Jones Industrials closed up 67 points to 9380.
The NASDAQ Composite jumped more than 32 points to 1824 and the
S&P 500 index added almost 10 points to 1006.

Chart of the DJIA:


Chart of the NASDAQ:


The lion's share of gains today landed in the technology issues
with the DDX disk drive index up 2.2%, the GHA hardware index
+2.09%, the GSO software index up 1.95%, the INX internet index
up 2.27%, the NWX networking index up +2.7% and the SOX
semiconductor index bouncing +1.93%.  The chips were not the
biggest winners today but they helped drive the rally with
positive comments over the weekend and this morning.  The
Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported that August
sales are up 4% and the SIA continues to see strength throughout
the industry.  Monthly sales improvements have been a growing
trend for the sector and helped power much of the February-
September rally.  This morning there were some analyst comments
on the SIA report with a JPM analyst raising their 2003 industry
sales growth forecasts from 12% to 15%.  Plus, another broker
upgraded a slew of chip stocks in a morning report claiming a
sustainable recovery for the chip equipment industry should
happen in the next three quarters.

Of course it wouldn't be a Monday without some merger news.  Less
than two weeks after French insurer AXA declared it had signed an
agreement for its U.S. subsidiary to buy the MONY Group (MNY) for
$1.5 billion in cash we have another insurance merger.  This
morning Canada's Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) announced it would
acquire John Hancock Financial Services (JHF) for $10.5 billion.
The merger was announced on Sunday and investors reacted
negatively to the news with MFC and JHF both down on the session.
The initial reaction on the street was that JHF was being sold
too cheap.  Terms of the deal will have JHF shareholders
receiving 1.1853 shares of Manulife for each share of JHF.  The
new company will be based in Toronto.

Influencing trading tomorrow will be a number of factors but most
pundits expect the averages to be erratic.  First and foremost it
is the end of the month for September.  The last 52 years have
shown September to be the worst month of the year for equities.
This month's losses have been rather mild given the gains in the
first two weeks but we will still close in the red unless we see
significant bounce tomorrow.  More importantly it is the last day
of the quarter.  This is the last chance for fund managers to
"dress up" their portfolio before they print your end-of-quarter
statements.  Managers will be dumping their losers and buying
some of the stronger performers to show you what a great job
they're doing.  Hopefully, they've been at least tracking the
market.  Currently, the U.S. is on track for its first back-to-
back quarterly advances since 2000.  As of Monday's close the
NASDAQ is up 36.6 percent YTD while the DJIA is up 12.4 percent
and the S&P 500 is up 14.4 percent (YTD).

A potential stumbling block for tech traders tomorrow will be Sun
Microsystems (SUNW) earnings warning tonight after the bell.
SUNW will be replacing a $12 million profit with a $1.04 billion
loss.  The company is writing down this non-cash charge for the
fourth quarter of its FY '03.  The stock was down 9 percent in
after hours trading.  A few years ago this would have cast a dark
cloud over the entire sector and possibly the market as a whole
but SUNW is just a shadow of its former self and investors may
regulate the news as company-specific.

Investors will also need to keep their eyes open for the
September Consumer Confidence report due out shortly after the
opening bell.  Economists expect the confidence number to dip
from 81.3 to 80.6; if the report comes out any weaker it could
undermine the markets after Friday's negative Michigan Sentiment
data.  Economists are also expecting a small dip in the Chicago
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) but the report should still show
an expanding manufacturing sector.




===============
Play-of-the-Day  ( BEARISH )
===============


Dendrite Int'l - DRTE - cls: 15.14 chng: +0.20 stop: 13.75*new*

Company Description:
Dendrite International provides multiple sales and marketing
solutions and related services to life sciences clients.  The
company was originally established to provide sales force
automation solutions for the pharmaceutical industry.  In 2002,
the company further expanded its offerings to include knowledge-
based, technology-driven solutions that increase the
effectiveness of sales, marketing and clinical processes for
pharmaceutical and other life sciences clients.  These include
customer relationship management solutions, information
management, business intelligence and analytics, and commercial
operations management.

Why we like it:
Given the way that it was ignoring the broad market weakness,
DRTE looked like it might continue its breakout, but the
intensified selling on Thursday finally cracked the bullish
facade.  Over the past couple sessions, the stock has begun to
roll over, albeit in a gentle and declining-volume manner.  This
nascent pullback is forcing us to redirect our attention to the
long-term ascending channel, which should continue to contain
price action.  There's the possibility of support holding near
$14.50, supported by the 20-dma ($14.46) and that would make for
a decent entry point.  On a more severe pullback, look for
support to be found near the 50-dma ($13.85), just above the
bottom of the channel.  Entries at either of those levels should
provide plenty of upside potential for the next trip to the top
of the channel (currently $16.40).  Maintain stops at $13.60.

Why This is our Play of the Day
Early market weakness dragged shares of DRTE just a bit lower
from Friday's close to the $14.60 level.  That was the moment of
truth for the bulls and they responded in heroic fashion giving
the stock a very strong bounce off of that support level, which
used to be resistance.  While price came back in a bit in the
afternoon, it is encouraging to see another close back over $15
and above the center-line of the ascending channel that has been
building since last November.  Recall from the weekend update
that we were looking for a rebound from the $14.50 area, and
today's intraday low certainly seemed close enough.  Another
rebound from above the 20-dma (currently $14.49) can be used for
new entries, as can a breakout above the recent highs ($15.70).
Above there, the next likely resistance will be found at the top
of the channel ($16.50).  Recall that our initial profit target
is $18.50, but we don't expect a quick trip to that level, as
DRTE is likely to continue working higher within its channel.
Raise stops to $13.75, which is just below both the 50-dma
($13.89) and the bottom of the rising channel.

Annotated Chart of DRTE:



Picked on September 24th at  $15.55
Change since picked           -0.41
Earnings Date              10/23/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        181 K




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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 09-29-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Loss Updates:   DRTE

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================


DRTE - Raise from $13.60 up to $13.75


==================================================================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

D       Dominion Resources Inc     62.15    +0.85
XL      XL Capital Ltd             77.48    +1.41
CIN     Cinergy Corp               36.98    +0.64
SUN     Sunoco Inc                 39.88    +0.58
MRBK    Mercantile Bankshares Cp   40.36    +0.61


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

KLM     KLM Royal Dutch Airls      14.31    +1.23
TTMI    TTM Technologies Inc       13.99    +1.14
ZIGO    ZYGO Corp                  17.42    +2.40
PDFS    PDF Solutions              11.65    +2.20


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

PRU     Prudential Financial Inc   38.06    +1.05
MTB     M&T Bank Corp              87.75    +1.66
MBT     Mobile Telesys Corp        76.00    +3.97
JBLU    Jetblue Airways Corp       62.13    +2.87
WFMI    Whole Goods Market Inc     55.82    +2.41


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MMM     3M Company                140.54    -2.91
MLEA    Millea Holdings Inc (ADR)  55.00    -1.04
MFC     Manulife Financial Corp    29.18    -1.02
ANPI    Angiotech Pharmaceutical   43.34    -1.28
ESPD    Espeed Incorporated CI A   22.10    -1.09


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

WPC     WP Carey & Co LLC          31.96    -0.12
CSWC    Capital Southwest Corp     57.50    -1.25



=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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