Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 10/05/2003

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-05-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Prosperity Breaking Out All Over
Play-of-the-Day:  What a Dish!
Market Sentiment: No Doubt


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
***************************************************************
        WE 10-03        WE 9-26         WE 9-19         WE 9-12
DOW     9572.31 +259.23 9313.08 -331.74 9644.82 +173.27 - 31.79
Nasdaq  1880.57 + 88.50 1792.07 -113.63 1905.70 + 50.67 -  3.21
S&P-100  515.17 + 15.56  499.61 - 21.01  520.62 +  8.32 -  0.19
S&P-500 1029.85 + 33.00  996.85 - 39.45 1036.30 + 17.67 -  2.76
W5000   9990.30 +343.82 9646.48 -407.5910054.07 +176.76 - 29.38
RUT      512.28 + 27.00  485.28 - 34.92  520.20 + 11.14 +  0.19
TRAN    2784.85 +121.02 2663.83 -130.88 2794.71 + 59.11 - 11.69
VIX       19.50 -  2.73   22.23 +  3.16   19.07 -  1.18 +  0.88
VXN       29.20 -  1.68   30.88 +  1.14   29.74 -  2.94 + 11.98
TRIN       0.60            1.42            1.35            1.11
Put/Call   0.75            0.98            0.68            0.90
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================


Prosperity Breaking Out All Over
by Jim Brown

To the surprise of everyone the jobs number was positive
instead of negative and the resulting explosion caught the
bears completely off guard. The Dow gapped up to near its
52-week highs as broadcasters tripped all over themselves
trying to explain why the consensus estimates were so wrong.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


S&P Chart


The Jobs Report showed a gain of +57,000 jobs in September
and the -93,000 loss in August was revised up to -41,000.
This is a net increase of +109,000 jobs and the markets
were caught completely unprepared. The gains were driven
by stronger hiring in services and construction. The
unemployment rate remained at 6.1% due to a drop in the
labor force participation rate to 66.1%. That means many
workers gave up looking for a job and are no longer in the
census. The number of workers that have been out of work
for more than 27 weeks rose to 23.2% and levels not seen
since 1992. Hourly earnings fell by a penny and the first
time they have fallen since 1989.

While jobs have been the missing piece of the puzzle the
positive report did have some negative implications. The
drop in hourly wages imply that consumer spending could
slow and that deflation concerns may be increasing. Also
reversing estimates was the news that the state survey
adjustment was projecting a loss of -145,000 jobs instead
of the +200,000 gain analysts were expecting. The chief
economist for Banc One was expecting a gain of +300,000.
This is the book balancing between the state and federal
numbers each June. The September jobs report is the first
look at the numbers and they will be revised as we move
forward.

Temporary workers increased and produced a bullish spin
to the news. Companies tend to put on temporaries to test
the water before adding permanent employees. If this is
the case then the coming trend could be improving. This
was the fifth straight month that temporary jobs were
added.

The only other economic report was the ISM Services which
came in at 63.3 compared to consensus at 62.8. While slightly
higher than consensus it was still a drop from the 65.1 we
saw last month. As I said on Thursday this was a throw away
number as long as it was over 60 and the 63.3 was icing on
the cake. With the jobs bounce already underway when this
number was released at 10:AM there was only a slight move
from the markets. Last months number was an index high so
a slight pullback was anticipated. The employment component
did fall -1.9% so there is still trouble in employment
even in the booming services sector. New orders fell -7.7%
to 59.9 in September.

Individual stock news was pretty much ignored with the race
to cover shorts but there were some significant events. HPQ
announced it would give $25,000 in free services to any
company that switched to HPQ from SUNW for its servers.
While this makes great headlines in a week where SUNW has
been the tech scapegoat it will have little or no impact
on SUNW or HPQ. HPQ would have easily discounted their
servers on any quote for much more than the $25K they are
offering. The switch from SUNW to HPQ would likely be a
multi hundred thousand dollar effort with hundreds if not
thousands of man hours and not something that $25K will
impact. Great marketing ploy and HPQ got much more than
$250K worth of advertising just from the announcement. It
would be interesting to know six months from now how many
companies actually collected on the offer.

BVF was a highlight on Friday and did not open for trading
until 1:45 and closed down -$6.67 or -18% on news that a
truck carrying up to $20 million in drugs was involved in
a multi car accident. The drugs will have to be returned
to the plant and re-certified as saleable before being
put back into the pipeline. BVF said it would impact
earnings for the quarter.

ADTN jumped +9.15 (+14%) on raised guidance to 42 cents
when analysts were only expecting 36 cents per share.
Revenue was expected to be up +6%. This telecom equipment
maker exploded on the good news while TLAB barely broke
even after warning that it was cutting another 10% of its
work force and close a development center in Canada. The
company has already suffered seven rounds of job cuts in
the past two years and five straight quarters of losses.
ADTN said the improvement was in market share gains and
an improved business climate. Maybe TLAB should start
tailing the ADTN salesmen.

Emcor (EME) fell -8.66 to $34.79 after warning that their
second half guidance was dropping by -50%. The construction
services company said small task projects were dropping
due to competitive pressures. The company said the small
jobs were the first to be cut when cost savings were needed
and the last to return. Their outlook is still good once
the economy returns to prior levels. Sounds like a familiar
story.

Another Grasso story made the rounds on Friday. A Wall
Street Journal story said a NYSE specialist firm said
Grasso pressured them to buy more AIG stock to prevent a
drop in price. No big deal since the market makers are
supposed to provide a liquid market and try to avoid big
swings in the stock prices. The problem was that Grasso
did it after receiving complaints from the chairman of
AIG. Still no big deal until you hear that AIG Chairman
Hank Greenberg was a NYSE director and a member of the
compensation committee that approved Grasso's pay package.
This will see more press only because of the relationship
and the assumption Grasso is an easy target now.

With any jump in the market or in the perception of the
economy you would expect a corresponding decline in bonds.
What you would not expect is the magnitude of the decline.
The ten-year yield jumped to near 4.22% when it was trading
at only 3.12% at Wednesday's close. Traders claim this is
the worst volatility in 40 years in the bond market. The
100-year storm that FNM CEO Franklin Rains has claimed is
far from over. The on again off again bond market rally
is playing havoc with mortgage rates. A full point jump,
+33%, in two days on the ten-year is literally unheard of.
Builders took it on the chin in early trading but rallied
back in the afternoon on speculation that more jobs meant
more buyers.

If you are a bond junkie how do you hedge yourself
against a 33% change in yields in a 48 hr period? When
changes in yields are normally measured in 10-15 basis
points and not +186 basis points as on Friday there has
got to be pain. How that pain filters back through the
markets next week will be the key. Obviously it was a
knee jerk reaction and will probably equalize but those
forced out of positions today for big losses will not
appreciate that fact.

Another financial instrument got hammered on Friday. The
gold bugs woke up to a major move that knocked -13.70 off
the price of gold to close at $370. This knocked off all
the gains from September and put the metal back at Aug-27
levels. This is well off the 394.80 high just seven days
ago.

Going in the opposite direction was oil, which closed over
$30 once again on fears that Saudi Arabia was going to cut
production to offset rising Iraqi output. Also adding to
the confusion was strike worries from Nigeria and comments
from Venezuela that they wanted to see prices several dollars
higher. Just when you thought prices were going to settle
back down after soaring to over $2 a gallon in many areas
it appears supply is dwindling again. This undeclared tax
on the U.S. consumer and corporations alike will act to
slow any future recovery. When added to the hike in interest
rates this is a serious problem that most people fail to
consider.

Depending on whom you listen to there were either outflows
from funds in the week ended on Thursday or at best a drop
in the amount of money deposited. TrimTabs said inflows to
all funds fell -50% last week to only $2.39 billion but
the numbers are vague. It appears more than $3 billion
flowed out of the funds that are under investigation for
illegal trading. Janus supposedly lost -$2.6 billion over
the last week after they said they uncovered 12 arrangements
for improper trading of its funds. If that money actually
left Janus then there was some serious selling to raise it
and that could have been one of the major reasons for the
drop last week. That money is probably already sloshing
around in some other funds coffers and is either already
back in the market over the last three days or will be put
back in next week.

Fed Rant Ahead

Ok, I admit it. It was a perfect setup. The perfect sting
to benefit the greater good. Thursday night I mentioned
that it was very coincidental that five different Fed heads
all took it upon them selves to say how concerned the Fed
was about jobs on the very same day. The day before the
actual jobs report. Very coincidental and questionable I
said at the time. What I and obviously many other traders
thought was we were going to have a disaster of a Jobs
report and they were setting us up for it in advance to
ease the blow. After all they were really concerned and
they were really feeling our pain. Considering the Fed
gets a 24-48 hour advance notice of all the economic
reports they obviously knew in advance how bad it was.
BINGO! They knew in advance exactly how good it was and
they orchestrated the perfect short squeeze. Set everybody
up to lean to the downside and then knock them out of the
ring with the sucker punch. The perfect sting for active
traders.

But why go to all the trouble? Because it is easier to
manipulate the markets when the opportunity presents itself
than cut rates again. It costs them nothing and to 99.9%
of the public it is totally secret. Another reason is to
pump up taxes. Not only does the Fed want to pump up the
market long term to reflate tax collection but they need
to stimulate tax collection short term as well. Causing
wild gyrations in the market will promote trading and
trigger tax consequences short term. How many traders
were either stopped out of positions Friday or closed
them for unexpectedly large profits? Maybe millions. They
accomplished multiple goals at once. They took a period
where everybody was coiled up tight worried about an
October drop and blew them out of the water and completely
turned the market around to bring the bulls back to thinking
about new highs. Those hoping to buy the October dip are
much less certain that a dip will appear. Now they are
nervous that they might miss the train. Bullish emails
were flying Friday afternoon. Dow 10,000 was mentioned
numerous times. The normal October tribulation period
has been completely discounted after Friday's bounce.

If a company CEO did this to his stock he would go to jail.
The Fed can do it because they don't own the stocks. They
are operating in our best interest or at least in the best
interest of the country. My shorts that were stopped out
on Friday did not benefit from the Fed help. When you
are dealing with banker barons who have a federal "get
out of jail free" card it brings an entirely new meaning
to "don't fight the Fed." What I would have given to be a
fly on the wall when Bernanke called Alan at the close.
"Well, Al, how did I do? We really put the screws to those
those traders today. What have you got planned for next
week? This is more fun than printing money!"

Obviously I have no evidence to support any of the above
scenario and I am only speculating. I do know that the
Fed gets 24-48 hour advance notice of reports. We also
know for a fact that five Fed guys hit on Jobs in public
speeches after they got that advance information. You
connect the dots.

The markets exploded out of the gate on the jobs news with
the Dow gapping up to 9631 (+150) and completely bypassed
two critical resistance levels at 9500 and 9600. After an
initial but brief pullback the Dow moved to a high of 9666
at 1:PM, +185 points. The Nasdaq surged to a high of 1891
and +56 points. While the Dow traded briefly over its
prior 52-week closing high of 9659 the Nasdaq could not
make repeat the feat. At 2:45 the sell programs began to
fire and the Dow dropped back to up only +84 and 100 points
off its high. Still a very nice gain. The Nasdaq pulled
back to 1878 and +44 for the day. Despite the afternoon
selling this was a very strong performance for October.
This stretched the October winning streak to three
consecutive days. The Dow is up over +300 points already
for Oct and the Nasdaq +90.

This puts the bulls, bears and traders on exactly opposite
sides of the fence. The bulls have completely written off
the possibility of an October decline. I get tons of hate
mail if I even mention the historical trends. (That should
be a strong contrarian indicator on its own.) The bears,
while expecting the mother of all October dips are scared
to pull the trigger and attempt to short the market even
at these levels. Being convinced there is a dip in our
future and being brave enough to put money on the line
and fight the Fed requires vastly different levels of
commitment. Traders don't care which way we go and have
no clue which way we are going. I published a chart on
Thursday showing the almost daily reversals of sentiment
over the last month. Friday's action did not help change
that picture.

Technically speaking, and that is what I am doing when I
talk about the market levels, we are at a critical point
in the market and in time. It seems almost daily since the
rebound began three days ago that I get numerous emails
calling me to task for mentioning a potential October dip.
I got no emails for the prior week when we were slipping
but now they are flying fast with all the reasons why we
should be bullish. I have no argument with being bullish.
I agree we should be long term bullish but that is not
the point. The point is not being bullish or bearish but
being careful as traders. It is simply ridiculous to go
blindly through October as though historical trends did
not exist. The trends MAY not repeat this October but
that does not mean we should not be wary. You would not
try to cross a busy street without first looking both
ways before you stepped off the curb. Be bullish all you
want but at least be aware of the potential land mines
in your path.

Technically speaking the Dow is better off where it closed
than at the highs of the day. Closing at 9650 would have
been an open invitation for shorts to take a free shot at
the open on Monday. Closing at 9575 is just far enough
below several resistance levels to make them think twice
before taking the leap. On the long side the bulls do not
have to grit their teeth and hold their nose to buy at the
52-week high. They can calmly look at the market action on
Monday and decide where to make their buys. With support
at every 50 point increment below us there are plenty of
potential dip buying entry points. Closing 100 points off
the highs took all the pressure off the bulls and put the
worry back on the side of the bears. Still the odds of a
gap fill in our future are really strong.

The Nasdaq has very strong resistance at 1900 and equally
strong support at 1800. 1865 is probably the price magnet
in the middle. The Nasdaq was the strongest index Friday
and was up +4.7% for the week. The networkers were up +6.8%.
While the Friday close represents exactly a 50% gain for
the Nasdaq since the March lows many individual stocks
have huge gains for the year. INTC +89%, EBAY +128%, SAMN
+131%, AMZN +170%. Fundamentally speaking this is a huge
reason why getting over 1900 could be a challenge over the
next two weeks.

Everybody knows earnings start next week. The first Dow
component announces on Tuesday with Alcoa taking the plunge.
Tuesday heats up with YHOO, DNA, SONS, COST. The number of
companies increases daily with GE leading the list on
Friday. The earnings really heat up the week of the 13th
with the biggest accumulation of big caps including IBM
and INTC. Earnings expectations have ratcheted up over the
last two weeks to nearly +20% for the S&P. Considering the
strength of the recovery this is huge. The rally has been
huge and many think the expectations are already priced
into the market and leave us nowhere to go if companies
just hit these numbers. I have no opinion about the
potential earnings other than I do not expect a lot of
better than expected results. The warnings have been
especially light and that has helped ramp up expectations.
We all know what happens when companies just meet
expectations. The result is normally not pleasant. With
expectations so high it is going to be tough to exceed
them enough to please most bullish investors.

What we have is a critical point in the markets. Not a
bullish or bearish point but simply a collection of related
items all rushing together over the next two weeks. It is
small wonder these are the most volatile two weeks of the
year. Other than the small dip that ended on Tuesday we
have not really seen any fund selling yet. As I stated
earlier that bout of weakness could have been Janus flight
more than any generic portfolio shuffling. That leaves the
fund portfolios packed full of profits and racing toward
their October fiscal year end. The most likely scenario
would be some spark over the next two weeks that triggers
some profit taking. Whether that spark is earnings or just
a point on the calendar is anybody's guess.

Just because there is a good chance of profit taking in
our future does not mean we should not be bullish. The
jobs report was the first really positive sign that the
employment is starting to cycle up again. That is very
bullish but it is just a sign and not a major event. With
140 million jobs in the country an addition of +57,000 is
not statistically significant. It is significant only to
the sentiment and to investor confidence. Traders might
remember that despite the positive jobs report the PMI,
Personal Income, Chain Store Sales, Consumer Confidence,
Construction Spending, ISM, Jobless Claims and Factory
Orders were all worse than expected. But who is counting?
While they were weaker than expected nothing goes straight
up and there were extenuating circumstances. We had a
blackout and a hurricane in the reporting period. I am
only trying to paint the entire picture and get you to
step back from the microscopic focus on the jobs report.

I am bullish long term but I still expect some profit
taking in October. What you expect depends on your point
of view and your time horizon. If you are a long term
stock investor then the short term fluctuations are just
a nuisance factor. You probably are hoping for a dip to
buy. If your time frame is 2-3 weeks then you should
revisit your stop loss plan. If your timeframe is only
2-3 days then you already have an opinion about immediate
market direction and I am not going to influence you.

Monday is Yom Kippur and many traders will not be at work.
Normally this would be a low volume day. After three days
of gains I would expect another consolidation day due to
the low volume. It takes strong volume to move the markets
upward and that volume could be lacking on Monday. Use it
as a day to research individual stocks to see which ones
have better than average relative strength and which ones
report earnings late in the cycle. For example with JNPR
reporting earnings next week any positive results would be
reflected in expectations for other networkers that report
a week or two later. Playing JNPR, which reports on the 9th,
does not give you much time and I never recommend holding
over an earnings event. By taking a position in FDRY or
CSCO, only an example, both of which report much later
you could profit from the reaction to the JNPR news with
much less risk.

The next two weeks are one of the most enjoyable "trading"
periods of the year. Moves tend to be quick, volume high
and reversals frequent. I can't wait. I spent many long
hours last week studying chart setups and playing with
different indicators. I suggest you do the same. I suggest
you prepare an October game plan. Decide where you want
to enter new trades both bullish and bearish and decide
where you want to exit those trades once entered. Plan
for bounces and plan for dips. If you plan your trades
in advance then the emotion of things like the jobs report
spike will not cause a knee jerk reaction that costs you
money. There were a lot of traders that went long at the
top of the bounce on Friday because they thought the
market was going to run away from them. If that is your
game plan then go for it. My game plan is still the same
as it was last Sunday. I am going to buy dips at support
and sell spikes to resistance. I am going to let October
play out any way it wants and just follow along for the
ride. Once you form a hard opinion about market direction
you may find yourself humbled. I know from many years of
experience.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================


EchoStar - DISH - close: 40.02  change: +0.89 - stop: 37.49

Company Description:
EchoStar Communications Corporation (Nasdaq:DISH) serves over 9
million satellite TV customers through its DISH Network(TM), the
fastest-growing subscription television service in the nation.
DISH Network delivers advanced digital satellite television
services, including hundreds of video and audio channels,
Interactive TV, HDTV, sports and international programming,
professional installation and 24-hour customer service. DISH
Network is the leader in the sale of digital video recorders
(DVRs).

Why We Like It:
This week, DISH completed a $2.5 billion debt offering.  The
company had previously announced that it planned to use the funds
garnered to repurchase debt and to bid for assets of bankrupt
Loral Space & Communications. With that out of the way, DISH
found support at its 10-dma and moved above the midline of its
rising regression channel.  Friday's candle also represented an
upside breakout of its recent bull flag.

It was that rising regression channel and the ascending triple
top breakout P&F buy signal that caught our attention.  As DISH
found support and climbed above the midline of its regression
channel, RSI and stochastics turned up, too, with MACD lines
approaching a bullish cross.  We like the way that DISH often
finds support from its rising 30-dma, sometimes piercing it
intraday but most times closing above the moving average.  We're
setting our stop at $37.49, just under the 30-dma and near the
bottom of the rising regression channel.

Entries can be found on a pullback and bounce from anywhere above
$39.00 or from a move over Friday's intraday high.  One caution
exists, however.  Although DISH created that ascending triple top
breakout P&F buy signal in late September, its original P&F buy
signal had an upside target of $41.00.  We note that the
September 3 high was $40.95, just under that original P&F buy
signal.  Momentum traders might consider waiting for a push above
that $41.00 original signal.  Our target is $45.00, although we
anticipate another bull-flag pullback near $42.00-42.50 when DISH
again hits the top of its rising regression channel.

(Note: Different quote sources have listed a $40.02 close for
DISH, rather than the $39.95 displayed on this chart.)

Annotated Chart for DISH:


Picked on Oct 03 at  39.95
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    08/13/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  2.2 million





================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================


No Doubt
- J. Brown

There should be no doubt as to investor sentiment these days.
The gain in the September jobs report on Friday was the missing
piece to the economic puzzle.  For months bears have been harping
on the weak job market and finally bulls have some improvement
they can point to.  Of course, as Jim points out in his wrap, the
+57,000 jobs (+100,000 if you count the revision in August) is
not even a drop in the bucket to the number of jobs needed.
However, it is improvement and hopefully signs of a reversal in
the trend of declining jobs and not just a seasonal blip.

If bears were on the defense earlier, Friday's economic reports
should have them running for cover and short covering was a major
influence on Friday's gains.  Investors will now be free to focus
on the up coming earnings season instead of worrying about every
little economic report.  Yet 100% focus on corporate earnings
will be a double-edged sword.

The good news is that expectations for Q3 results are extremely
positive.  The bad news is that expectations for Q3 results are
extremely positive.  Should results fail to meet or beat these
raised expectations we could easily see a reversal of fortunes.
Currently, analysts expect earnings for companies in the S&P 500
to come in +15 to +16 percent compared with +6.8 percent growth
last year.  Bulls will also point to the lack of earnings
warnings this time.  The ratio of companies who have lowered
estimates compared to those raising estimates is about 1.5 to 1,
which is a big improvement over the recent trend of 3 to 1.

Looking ahead we could see some consolidation of the recent gains
on Monday due to the Yom Kippur holiday.  However, investors will
probably use any weakness to buy the dip ahead of the earnings
parade.  Speaking of which, Alcoa starts the earnings parade on
Tuesday this week.  Estimates are for Alcoa to turn in 30 cents a
share.  Later in the week we hear from bluechip heavy-weight
General Electric on Friday.

If there is one thing that traders should expect in October it's
volatility so trade carefully.




-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9686
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9572

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9439
 50-dma: 9373
200-dma: 8709

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1040
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1029

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1013
 50-dma: 1004
200-dma:  933

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1406
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1375

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1343
 50-dma: 1313
200-dma: 1151


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The market strength has sent the VIX back under the 20 mark and
the old VIX (now VXO) backs towards the 20 level.  Given the
bullishness in the markets I wonder if we'll see new yearly lows
on the VIX soon.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.50 –1.30
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 29.20 –2.05

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.75        811,472       609,997
Equity Only    0.55        632,898       351,244
OEX            1.01         47,644        48,034
QQQ            2.54         33,282        84,515


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          72.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    72.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   83.3    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       77.2    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       79.0    + 0     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.90
10-Day Arms Index  1.18
21-Day Arms Index  1.42
55-Day Arms Index  1.38


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1978      2128
Decliners     853       963

New Highs     235       179
New Lows       13         3

Up Volume   1407M     1583M
Down Vol.    443M      384M

Total Vol.  1862M     1988M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/30/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Wow!  It looks like the commercials traders went to sleep.  There
was almost no change in either the number of longs or number of
short positions.  Everyone must have been waiting on the September
Jobs report.  Small Traders were upping their bets with small
increases in both longs and shorts but still heavily long.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/02/03      417,973   482,392   (64,419)   (7.2%)
09/09/03      418,958   486,209   (67,251)   (7.4%)
09/23/03      395,123   397,858   ( 2,735)   (0.0%)
09/30/03      395,713   397,577   ( 1,864)   (0.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/02/03      169,030    75,748    93,282    38.1%
09/09/03      176,401    81,444    94,957    36.8%
09/23/03      139,482    87,981    51,501    22.6%
09/30/03      144,681    96,801    47,880    19.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

We did see some movement in the e-minis.  Commercials added about
50K new longs while only adding 14K new shorts.  Small Traders took
some money off the table with a redemption in their longs by more
than 40K.  However, small traders are still heavily bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/02/03      347,724   224,011    123,713    21.6%
09/09/03      370,909   237,610    133,299    21.9%
09/23/03      109,417   204,026   ( 94,609)  (30.2%)
09/30/03      163,828   218,991   ( 55,163)  (14.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/02/03       56,709   134,094   (77,385)  (40.6%)
09/09/03       59,692   130,270   (70,578)  (37.1%)
09/23/03      175,750    62,558   113,192    47.5%
09/30/03      131,698    65,259    66,439    33.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Much like the large S&P futures contracts, the commercial
traders appear to be asleep with very little change this
last report.  Small traders were also comatose with just a
couple of thousand new long contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/02/03       37,002     55,379   (18,377) (19.9%)
09/09/03       44,677     62,369   (17,692) (16.5%)
09/23/03       32,648     42,565   ( 9,917) (13.2%)
09/30/03       33,571     42,993   ( 9,422) (12.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
09/02/03       23,168    10,561    12,607    37.4%
09/09/03       28,788    13,370    15,418    36.6%
09/23/03       17,862     9,880     7,982    28.8%
09/30/03       19,803     9,917     9,886    33.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

There seems to be a theme here for commericals... no movement.
This time the small traders joined them in their sit back and
wait mode.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/02/03       25,462    10,447   15,015      41.8%
09/09/03       25,807    10,756   15,051      41.2%
09/23/03       15,911     9,123    6,788      27.1%
09/30/03       16,561     8,932    7,629      31.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
09/02/03        6,629    13,402   (6,773)   (33.8%)
09/09/03        7,429    13,796   (6,367)   (30.0%)
09/23/03        7,505     7,779   (  274)   ( 1.8%)
09/30/03        7,578     8,125   (  547)   ( 3.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------



=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-05-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     DISH
  New Bullish Plays:     MMC
  Bullish Play Updates:  TYC, GENZ, ZMH
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BVF

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  ORB, DRTE
  Clossed Bearish Plays: ASKJ


==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

EchoStar - DISH - close: 40.02  change: +0.89 - stop: 37.49

Company Description:
EchoStar Communications Corporation (Nasdaq:DISH) serves over 9
million satellite TV customers through its DISH Network(TM), the
fastest-growing subscription television service in the nation.
DISH Network delivers advanced digital satellite television
services, including hundreds of video and audio channels,
Interactive TV, HDTV, sports and international programming,
professional installation and 24-hour customer service. DISH
Network is the leader in the sale of digital video recorders
(DVRs).

Why We Like It:
This week, DISH completed a $2.5 billion debt offering.  The
company had previously announced that it planned to use the funds
garnered to repurchase debt and to bid for assets of bankrupt
Loral Space & Communications. With that out of the way, DISH
found support at its 10-dma and moved above the midline of its
rising regression channel.  Friday's candle also represented an
upside breakout of its recent bull flag.

It was that rising regression channel and the ascending triple
top breakout P&F buy signal that caught our attention.  As DISH
found support and climbed above the midline of its regression
channel, RSI and stochastics turned up, too, with MACD lines
approaching a bullish cross.  We like the way that DISH often
finds support from its rising 30-dma, sometimes piercing it
intraday but most times closing above the moving average.  We're
setting our stop at $37.49, just under the 30-dma and near the
bottom of the rising regression channel.

Entries can be found on a pullback and bounce from anywhere above
$39.00 or from a move over Friday's intraday high.  One caution
exists, however.  Although DISH created that ascending triple top
breakout P&F buy signal in late September, its original P&F buy
signal had an upside target of $41.00.  We note that the
September 3 high was $40.95, just under that original P&F buy
signal.  Momentum traders might consider waiting for a push above
that $41.00 original signal.  Our target is $45.00, although we
anticipate another bull-flag pullback near $42.00-42.50 when DISH
again hits the top of its rising regression channel.

(Note: Different quote sources have listed a $40.02 close for
DISH, rather than the $39.95 displayed on this chart.)

Annotated Chart for DISH:


Picked on Oct 03 at  39.95
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    08/13/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  2.2 million




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Marsh & McLennan - MMC - close: 48.18 change: +0.24 stop: 49.75

Company Description:
As the world's largest insurance brokerage company, MMC could be
called the ultimate middleman.  After purchasing UK broker
Sedgwick Group, the firm formed Marsh, Inc. to hold its risk and
insurance units including J & H Marsh & McLennan (risk and
insurance brokering); Guy Carpenter & Co. (reinsurance); Seabury
& Smith (insurance program management services); and Marsh &
McLennan Risk Capital (insurance industry investment and advisory
services).  The company also owns Putnam Investments, which
provides investment management services such as research and
accounting for publicly held investment companies.

Why we like it:
MMC rallied sharply off the March lows with the rest of the
market, reaching its zenith in the middle of June.  But that's
where the similarity ends.  Since that high, the stock has been
tracing out a very clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows
and is currently below all of its moving averages except for the
200-dma ($47.41), and it looks like that break could come any day
now.  The PnF chart has been on a Sell signal ever since touching
the $49 level in early August.  The vertical count from that Sell
signal is $42, which just happens to be the site of solid
historical support.  The only thing in the way of achieving that
target appears to be the 200-dma, which provided enough support
for that rebound last week.  But as you can see from the chart
below, no rebound over the past few months has been able to get
MMC over that descending trendline.

We're going to err on the side of caution and initiate coverage
with a trigger at $47.35, just under the 200-dma.  Certainly it
appears that a better entry might be had on a failed bounce below
the descending trendline, but we want to force the stock to give
us the breakdown before stepping into the play.  After the trade
below our trigger, entries can be taken according to individual
preference.  Entries on the breakdown should work just fine, but
more cautious traders may want to wait for a successive failed
bounce below the $48.50 level, which has been providing closing
resistance for over a week.  Friday's failed pop over the $49
level is precisely what we like about MMC, as any bullish action
is quickly reversed.  There's some congestion in the $46-47 area,
but once the bears chew through that, the $42 level looks like a
viable downside target.  We're initially setting our stop at
$49.75, which is above both the descending trendline ($49.25) and
the 50-dma ($49.56).

Annotated Chart of MMC:


Picked on October 5th at  $48.18
Change since picked        +0.00
Earnings Date           10/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.74 mln



============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

TYCO - TYC - close: 21.22  change: +0.30 - stop: 19.99

The start of TYC ex-CEO Dennis Kozlowski's trial prompted many a
mention of TYC this week.  TYC would like to combat the negative
image being presented, however, and Thursday revealed a new ad
campaign that celebrates its new management team.  TYC execs
appeared in full-page ads in newspapers such as The New York
Times and The Wall Street Journal.  Perhaps the positive
publicity helped, or perhaps TYC just rebounded with the markets,
but the end of the week saw TYC climb back above the trendline
that has been so important in TYC's trading pattern.

Friday, TYC bounced off its 21- and 30-dma's, and also managed a
close above the 10-dma and the $21.20 resistance that held it
back in early September.  RSI turned back up, perhaps peeking
just above the rising trendline it had violated early last week.
Stochastics turn back up, too.

New entries can be found on a push above Friday's high, a level
that also marks the top of a gap from the 9/18 close to the 9/19
open.  Some might prefer to wait for a move above $22.00.  New
entries can still be found on intraday moves back down to and
bounces from the ascending trendline.

Annotated Chart for TYC:


Picked on Sep 21 at  21.90
Change since picked: -0.68
Earnings Date:    07/29/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    8 million



----

Genzyme Corp. - GENZ - cls: 49.10 chng: +0.70 stop: 45.75*new*

Since rebounding from the bottom of its long-term rising channel,
shares of GENZ have been making steady upward progress, helped
along by the strong rise in the overall market.  Thursday's gains
brought the stock right up to the site of its 20-dma (now $48.37)
and Friday's opening surge took it above that level to test $50
before fading throughout the rest of the day.  But a gain is a
gain and we'll take what little was offered by the close of the
week.  We had initially expected the $50 level to offer some mild
resistance, so the fact that it was turned back from that area on
Friday is no great concern.  Volume is still looking strong, as
price continues its rebound from the bottom of the channel.
Target new entries either on a pullback near the $47.50-48.00
area.  With so many possible levels of resistance between here
and $52, it's hard to pick a viable level for a momentum entry.
Conservative traders should still target harvesting gains near
$52, while those willing to go for the gusto can hope for a
breakout and run at the top of the channel near $57.  Note that
we've raised our stop to $45.75, which is still just below the
bottom of the channel.

Picked on October 1st at  $47.50
Change since picked        +1.60
Earnings Date           10/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  2.88 mln



---

Zimmer Holdings - ZMH - cls: 56.69 chng: +0.51 - stop: 54.24*new*

Thursday, TYC completed its acquisition of Centerpulse.
Investors liked the idea.  The stock had been consolidating in a
symmetrical triangle, and broke out of that triangle to the
upside.  It rose to test the top of its ascending regression
channel.  RSI rose along its own rising trendline, confirming the
move.  That rising trendline may not be relevant much longer,
however.  It's risen so high that RSI would likely violate the
trendline with the smallest downside oscillation.

MACD remains bullish, and stochastics turned back up into
territory indicating overbought conditions.  When a stock trends
strongly, as ZMH has been doing, stochastics can trend at
overbought levels for some time as is obvious from ZMH's chart.
Downturns in the stochastics might signal nothing more than
consolidation.

We suspect that ZMH might again consolidate as it tends to do
once hitting the top of its regression channel.  We also notice
that the RXP, the Morgan Stanley Health Care Products Index, does
not perform as well as ZMH and closed down Friday.  While ZMH is
not a component of this index, several other medical device
companies are.  The RXP's decline might be attributed to the
steep decline in MDT, falling 4.91 percent Friday.  Prudential
cut Medtronic's rating to underweight.  While ZMH continues to
perform strongly and we've noticed that stocks in this sector
tend to trade independently of one another, we wish the sector
performed strongly, too.  We're raising the stop to $54.24 in
case sentiment carries over to other medical-device companies.
If ZMH does consolidate, new entries might be found on pullbacks
and bounces from above $55.50.

Annotated Chart for ZMH:


Picked on Sep 17 at   53.87
Change since picked:  +2.82
Earnings Date:    07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  2.2 million




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Biovail Corp. - BVF - close: 31.10 change: -6.67 stop: 40.00

After bouncing between support near $36.50 and resistance near
$38.50, BVF finally made a directional move on Friday and it
really moved!  Halted at the open, the stock plunged shortly
after noon when trade resumed in response to the company cutting
its Q3 guidance and Merrill Lynch, CIBC and Morgan Stanley all
slashing their rating on the stock.  Tapping a low of $30.80, the
stock caught a feeble rebound to just above $32.50 and then
dropped back to close just above $31.  There's certainly no sign
of strength there, so why are we dropping it this weekend?  Our
initial target for the play was $30 and we got awfully close to
that on Friday.  By pulling the plug here, it should provide the
opportunity to harvest gains into further weakness on Monday.
For those daring souls that want to hold out for more, we'd
suggest using a stop no higher than $32.75, which is just above
Friday's intraday high.

Picked on September 28th at  $36.75
Change since picked           -5.65
Earnings Date              10/28/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     1.99 mln





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Orbital Sciences - ORB - cls: 9.63  chng: +0.00 - stop: 9.24*new*

Every week or so since the ORB play has been open, ORB has
announced a new government contract, and it did so again
Thursday.  That contract involves an $11 million order for a
Minotaur space launch vehicle from the U.S. Air Force.

Instead of responding positively to the news, ORB traded
sideways, printing first a small-bodied candle on Thursday and
then a doji on Friday.  RSI flattens, too, while ORB
consolidates.  While the DFI, the Amex Defense Index, rose, we
note that other defense-related stocks such as BA printed doji,
too.

ORB's pattern appears to be a bull-flag pattern building inside
the ascending regression channel.  We note that ORB often prints
doji or small-bodied candles during similar consolidation
patterns, and that volume often drops off appropriately during
those consolidation periods.  As long as volume continues to
expand on the breakouts, the pattern continues to be bullish.

The 10-dma and 21-dma's now converge just under $9.50, with the
30-dma again snaking along the lower support line of the rising
regression channel.  ORB will hit the bottom of that rising
trendline near $9.40.  We've raised our stop to $9.24, just under
the rising 30-dma.  MACD lines now converge, with those lines
close to another bullish cross.  New entries could be sought on a
pullback and bounce from above $9.50, but we're beginning to be
concerned about the series of lower highs ORB may be printing.
Traders who prefer to enter on momentum might now wait for a push
above $10.00, confirming that volume expands with the push.

Annotated Chart for ORB:



Picked on Sep 3 at   $9.18
Change since picked: +0.45
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand



---

Dendrite Int'l - DRTE - cls: 16.05 chng: +1.06 stop: 14.59*new*

In an almost perfect mirror-image repeat of the action seen in
mid-September, our DRTE play built some support and used that as
a launching pad for a breakout to new multi-year highs.  After
the surge to just below $16 in late September, the stock pulled
back and found support just above $14.50, as volume withered to
almost non-existent.  Volume looked much stronger on Friday as
the stock vaulted higher by 7%, ending over $16 and looking like
it wants to go higher.  Traders that entered on the last dip
towards support should be eyeing the top of the channel $16.60 as
a spot to harvest some near-term gains.  We're in no hurry to bid
farewell to DRTE, but acknowledge that the stock will likely have
a hard time moving above the top of its channel, as each of the
prior tests in the past 10 months have been turned back.  We're
raising our stop to $14.59, just under the last reaction low.
Look to exit on strength early next week and then troll for a
fresh entry on a pullback into the $15.00-15.25 area.

Picked on September 24th at  $15.55
Change since picked           +0.50
Earnings Date              10/23/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        180 K





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - cls: 18.79 chng: +0.96 - stop: 18.61

Friday, the INX, the CBOE Internet Index, gained 3.29 percent.
ASKJ beat that, gaining 5.38 percent.  That's great if this had
been a bullish play, but not so great for our bearish play.  ASKJ
violated our $18.61 stop on both an intraday and closing basis.
Earlier in the week, an article commented that the Internet
stocks might be ramping up ahead of earnings season beginning
next week, and ASKJ certainly participated although its earnings
remain more than two weeks away.

Although ASKJ printed a doji, a signal of indecision, the stock
closed above its simple 50-dma, a sign of strength.  RSI rolled
up into bullish mode.  MACD lines tried to flatten and the
histogram moved up although it remains below signal.  Possible
"b" distribution pattern or not, ASKJ looks ready to bounce with
the other Internets.

Picked on Sep 28 at $17.15
Change since picked: +1.64
Earnings Date:    10/22/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-05-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of October 6th, 2003
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

===========================================
Market Watch for the week of September 22nd
===========================================


Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

None


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AA     ALCOA                 Tue, Oct 07  -----N/A-----     0.30
AMB    AMB Property Corp     Tue, Oct 07  After the Bell    0.51
APOL   Apollo Group          Tue, Oct 07  Before the Bell   0.34
PEP    PepsiCo               Tue, Oct 07  Before the Bell   0.62
RI     Ruby Tuesday          Tue, Oct 07  Before the Bell   0.36
YUM    Yum! Brands, Inc.     Tue, Oct 07  After the Bell    0.52


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BRO    Brown & Brown         Wed, Oct 08  After the Bell    0.37
COST   Costco Wholesale Corp Wed, Oct 08  Before the Bell   0.47
DNA    Genentech, Inc.       Wed, Oct 08  After the Bell    0.25
ISCA   Intl Speedway         Wed, Oct 08  Before the Bell   0.68
RPM    RPM INTL INC          Wed, Oct 08  Before the Bell   0.40
SONS   Sonus Networks        Wed, Oct 08  -----N/A-----    -0.01
SVU    Supervalu Inc.        Wed, Oct 08  Before the Bell   0.46
SBL    Symbol Technologies   Wed, Oct 08  -----N/A-----     0.08
WIN    Winn-Dixie Stores     Wed, Oct 08  After the Bell    0.00
YHOO   Yahoo, Inc.           Wed, Oct 08  After the Bell    0.09


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ABT    Abbott Laboratories   Thu, Oct 09  Before the Bell   0.53
ACN    Accenture             Thu, Oct 09  Before the Bell   0.25
ADX    Adams Express         Thu, Oct 09  -----N/A-----      N/A
ARA    ARACRUZ CELULOSE S A  Thu, Oct 09  -----N/A-----     0.57
CBSH   Commerce Bancshares   Thu, Oct 09  Before the Bell   0.73
FNFG   1st Niagara Finl GroupThu, Oct 09  Before the Bell   0.15
JNPR   Juniper Networks      Thu, Oct 09  After the Bell    0.03
MDC    M.D.C Holdings        Thu, Oct 09  Before the Bell   1.68
MAR    Marriott Intl         Thu, Oct 09  Before the Bell   0.38
STI    SunTrust              Thu, Oct 09  Before the Bell   1.17


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

ATYT   ATI Technologies      Fri, Oct 03  Before the Bell   0.10
GE     General Electric      Fri, Oct 10  Before the Bell   0.40
INFY   Infosys Technologies  Fri, Oct 10  Before the Bell   0.45
MTB    M&T Bank Corporation  Fri, Oct 10  Before the Bell   1.37
OCENY  Oci N.V.              Fri, Oct 10  Before the Bell    N/A


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

MYL     Mylan Laboratories Inc    3:2      Oct   8th   Oct   9th
TXUI    Texas United Bancshares   3:2      Oct  15th   Oct  16th
CELL    Brightpoint Inc           3:2      Oct  15th   Oct  16th
MPR     Met-Pro Corporation       4:3      Oct  15th   Oct  16th
THFF    First Financial Corp      2:1      Oct  15th   Oct  16th
PCBK    Pacific Continental Corp  4:3      Oct  15th   Oct  16th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Q3 earnings announcements really don't get started for another
week but we'll see some early birds begin to announce starting
this Tuesday.  Thursday and Friday this week have the heaviest
economic reports.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 10/06/03
----------------
None


-----------------
Tuesday, 10/07/03
-----------------
Consumer Credit (DM)    Aug  Forecast:   $6.0B  Previous:    $6.0B


-------------------
Wednesday, 10/08/03
-------------------
Wholesale Invntories(DM)Aug  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.0%


------------------
Thursday, 10/09/03
------------------
Initial Claims  (BB)  10/04  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     399K
Export Prices ex-ag.(BB)Sep  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.0%
Import Prices ex-oil(BB)Sep  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:    -0.2%
Natural Gas Inventories (report)
September Same-Store Sales come out


----------------
Friday, 10/10/03
----------------
Trade Balance (BB)      Aug  Forecast: -$41.0B  Previous:  -$40.3B
PPI (BB)                Sep  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.4%
Core PPI (BB)           Sep  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.1%



Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available



======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ING     ING Groep Nv               20.10    +0.53
WLP     Wellpoint Health Network   81.01    +1.00
APA     Apache Corp                71.70    +1.30
CSC     Computer Sciences Corp     40.02    +1.47
TRI     Triad Hospitals Inc        32.03    +0.96
IPCR    IPC Holdings Ltd           36.11    +0.65


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ASML    ASML Hldgs Nc Ny Red Shs   15.06    +1.24
JNPR    Juniper Networks           16.63    +1.39
AMKR    Amkor Technology Inc       16.57    +1.24
TWTC    Time Warner Telecom Inc    10.29    +1.11
ADIC    Advanced Digital Info      15.54    +1.39


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

AZN     Astrazeneca Plc            46.01    +1.69
TEF     Telefonica Inc (ADR)       37.07    +1.23
CAJ     Canon Inc (ADR)            50.20    +2.23
BF      BASF Ag (ADS)              45.98    +1.74
AMZN    Amazon.Com Inc             52.87    +2.80
AA      Alcoa Inc                  28.15    +1.02
VRTS    Veritas Software Corp      33.93    +1.93
ERTS    Electronic Arts Inc        98.28    +1.77
A       Agilent Technologies Inc   23.00    +1.01


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MDT     Medtronic Inc              45.88    -2.37
NEM     Newmont Mining Corp        37.88    -2.04
AU      Anglogold Ltd              36.30    -2.01
BVF     Biovail Corp               31.10    -6.67
WTW     Weight Watchers Intl Inc   40.50    -1.39


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

RA      Reckson Assoc Rlty         23.00    -0.35
ARLP    Alliance Rsrce Partners    29.27    -0.66


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives