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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 10/16/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 10-16-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Under Whelming
Watch List:       STCR, WEBX, XMSR, JBHT and more!
Market Sentiment: Tug of War

MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
      10-16-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9791.72 - 11.30  9823.42  9730.38 1.71 bln   1848/1314
NASDAQ   1950.14 + 11.00  1951.76  1930.28 1.76 bln   1822/1355
S&P 100   523.51 +  1.37   525.06   520.44   Totals   3670/2669
S&P 500  1050.07 +  3.31  1052.94  1044.04
W5000   10210.84 + 36.00 10234.32 10152.12
RUS 2000  529.64 +  2.29   530.49   526.05
DJ TRANS 2872.58 +  8.90  2891.61  2865.78
VIX        17.19 -  0.50    18.05    16.86
VXO VIX-O  19.12 -  0.14    19.83    18.70
VXN        25.47 -  1.30    27.13    25.37
Total Volume 3,729M
Total UpVol  2,332M
Total DnVol  1,313M
52wk Highs  675
52wk Lows    16
TRIN       0.97
NAZTRIN    0.94
PUT/CALL   0.65

Market Wrap

Under Whelming

That was the term used to describe earnings reports from several
Dow components that failed to live up to the great expectations.
IBM, CAT and MO failed to impress investors and between the three
they were responsible for over -50 Dow points. Take those three
stocks out of the mix and the Dow would have set another new
high. Interesting statistic but if small consolation to those
expecting a continued rally.

Dow Chart

Nasdaq Chart

S&P Chart

It was a day of mixed economics but those that were positive
were very positive. The Jobless Claims dropped to 384,000 and
an eight month low. Ring a bell? That is because last weeks
claims were also an eight month low at 382,000 but those numbers
were revised up +6,000 to 388K. That took away the eight month
title and passed it to this week with a higher number. Just
word games but the bottom line was two consecutive weeks under
400K and the four-week moving average fell to the lowest level
since February. Continuing claims rose to 3.67 million and a
level not seen since June-28th. Layoffs may be easing but jobs
are still hard to find. Last week the markets rallied strongly
on the drop to 382,000 claims but this week they barely noticed.
The Manpower CEO said that despite some recent signs of minor
improvement he was unable to call an end to the current labor
problems. His company is a leading indicator of job growth and
he said improvement was still weak.

The Consumer Price Index jumped +0.3% in September with energy
prices continuing to rise. The core CPI rose only +0.1% and
pushed the annual rate to a new 38 year low of +1.2%. Obviously
the pricing environment remains very weak and this prompted Fed
Governor Parry to warn that inflation could fall further and
that deflation was still the bigger risk. The markets ignored
his comments.

Business Inventories fell more than expected at -0.4% compared
to estimates of only a -0.1% drop. While this is a cause for
concern this was August data and the market does not normally
react to it. The same information is reported in several other
reports on a more timely basis. This was the fourth consecutive
monthly drop in inventories. Total business sales also fell in
August by -0.2%. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at an all time
low of 1.36. This would indicate a rapid buildup could occur if
demand were to increase. That increase has yet to happen.

Industrial Production rose +0.4% as expected but August was
revised from a minor gain to a minor loss at -0.1%. This
indicates only a very minor pickup in manufacturing. Automakers
were responsible for the majority of the gains with incentives
enticing even more consumers to upgrade. Capacity Utilization
rose only slightly to 74.8% from 74.5% in August. With 25%
excess capacity there is no need to buy more equipment or
upgrade plants. This excess capacity is contributing to the
decline in prices and drop in inflation.

The NAHB Housing Index rose to 72 from 68 in September and
jumped to the highest level since December 1999. The dip in
mortgage rates over the last month prompted a quick rebound
in housing activity. All components of the index were up. The
seasonal activity also helped with homes hitting the market
from the spring starts. While these numbers are up the number
of new mortgage applications is already slipping and could
be the beginning of a long term trend. Of course the housing
bears have been claiming this for many months and the sector
continues to grow.

The most bullish report was the Philly Fed Survey, which blew
away estimates of 16.0 with a headline number of 28.0. This
was far better than anyone had expected and was the fifth
consecutive month of expanding conditions. Shipments, New
Orders and Employment rose strongly. However, inventories
fell to -2.5 and the six month outlook fell to 55 from 66.
This mix of conditions indicate that there may have been a
burst of activity but the long term outlook has not really
improved. Because most manufacturers receive orders and bids
for orders many months in advance the business they received
last month was expected many months ago. They are now looking
at orders for 3-6 months from now and without some increase
in demand soon those orders may not come through. Several
analysts mentioned today that the 1Q-2004 could actually be
weak as the real 4Q business patterns are reviewed. Everyone
is expecting a strong 4Q but as of yet it is still just an
expectation. If it appears on schedule then we could be off
to the races but if it is weaker than expected then the 1Q
could see yet another round of cost cutting.

Last night we got earnings from IBM and as the headline to
this article said, the results were less than exciting. The
company met estimates and even said they could see hiring
10,000 new employees next year. Investors were not impressed.
The key comment came from the CEO who said that although he
was seeing signs of stabilization "it was too soon to call
it a recovery." When coupled with Intel's comments that they
were seeing strength in Europe/Asia but the U.S. orders were
still soft you can see why tech investors were becoming
worried. 4% of IBM earnings came from currency gains and
not sales. Dow component IBM lost -3.46 for the day.

Another Dow component Caterpillar lost -4.02 after raising
its outlook for 2003 to $3.00. Sounds good but analysts
were already expecting CAT to make $3.15 and the stock was
punished severely. CAT said retirement of $40 million in
bonds and higher costs offset gains in sales. They stressed
gains made in cost cutting but that does not normally please

KO missed estimates by two cents despite a +2% gain in profits
from currency gains. They were upbeat about sales and outlook
but the two cent miss knocked nearly -$1.00 off the stock at
the open. It recovered to close at $44.99 and +50 cents off
its lows. Another Dow component, MO, reported earnings of
+1.22 per share and beat the street by a penny but sales were
slipping. Revenue jumped +4.7% to $20.9billion but primarily
due to a favorable currency gains of +$940 million. Again,
not a normal gain and MO dropped at the open but regained
most of the losses by the close.

Dow component HON reported earnings that dropped -20% but
were inline with analysts estimates. They also guided inline
with analyst estimates for Q4. Yet another Dow component UTX
beat the street by three cents on the strength of its elevator
business overseas. UTX was one of the strongest gainers with
a +70 cent bounce to a new 52-week high.

After the close there was a flurry of tech earnings as over
200 companies reported today. The overall tech earnings were
positive tonight with BRCM, XLNX, AMD, AVID, DCLK, LEXR, PMCS,
PLCM, RMBS, WEBX, FCS and ATML all beating the street. Only
PXLW missed estimates. EBAY was the biggest company to report.
They hit their numbers and raised THEIR estimates for revenue
but their estimates for Q4 were for less than analysts had
expected. EBAY dropped nearly -$4 in after hours. EBAY has
a habit of disappointing analysts who constantly expect them
to earn more. The estimates are always more than EBAY's and
almost always sets up a failure situation.

Despite the few high profile misses today earnings are coming
in above expectations with 92% of the S&P companies either
meeting or beating estimates. This is a very strong ratio but
they are competing against a very weak 2002-Q3. Despite the
weak comparisons First Call said the overall results were
+6.4% above expectations. Top line growth is running at +8%
and bottom line growth at +18%. There is positive momentum
in almost all sectors.

IDC reported today that PC shipments had risen +15% in Q3
with the strongest gains in Europe. In the U.S. growth was
primarily in government and the consumer sector with slow
growth in the business sector. IDC had previously projected
+10.4% growth. The incentive was blowout specials and extreme
competition in consumer PCs. Dell grew sales +27.9% with HPQ
hot on their trail with a +28% gain. The combined sales of
the next three vendors did not come close to those numbers.
Dell is still in the top spot in the U.S. but HPQ is closing
the gap according to IDC with strong momentum going into the
4Q. Dell's total market share for the quarter was 17.4% on
6.67 million units compared to HPQ at 17.1% and 6.55 million

Not everyone was positive with NOK saying sales would be flat
or only up slightly. They reported that prices were still
falling due to intense competition. Maytag lost ground after
saying that competition from cheaper products primarily in
the vacuum cleaner sector had impacted results. They are
closing plants and restructuring in an effort to lower costs
to compete more effectively in the market. They are shifting
their manufacturing to Mexico to benefit from the cheaper
labor. Sounds familiar. Analysts expected 57 cents and MYG
posted only 46 cents.

HDI continued to fall on reports of stagnant sales and fears
they would miss 4Q estimates. Sales slipped in the 3Q from
the prior year and analysts fear they are a leading indicator
for a slow down in the consumer sector. HDI is normally
exempt from economic conditions as they are normally back
ordered on their popular models. They announced plans to
only increased the 2004 production estimates by +8.9% and
contrary to historical double digit trends. If the sales
growth trend has changed it could project weakness in the
other high end toys and luxury cars.

While the earnings picture is really very positive the mixed
messages from a few high profile misses and opposing economic
signals worked to keep the Dow locked in its trading range
for one more day. The Dow has been trading between 9700-9800
for the last six days. It closed once again under 9800 and
could either be poised to rocket ahead or begin profit taking
once earnings are over. The Dow has been very strong and the
bulls are still supplying an underlying bid on every dip.

The Nasdaq managed to close at a new 52-week high but still
below the intraday high set yesterday. The flurry of great
tech earnings after the close are being overshadowed by the
guidance change by EBAY and the massive after hours drop.
The Nasdaq futures are down -4.00 but like IBM last night
the broader strength in chips could offset the EBAY loss by

Friday is option expiration and the volume today was very
light. The direction for the averages is still up for grabs
and after more than 200 companies reporting earnings today
the good news is likely to be priced in. With 92% of companies
beating estimates, as expected, there may not be enough
excitement left to push the indexes much higher. I speculated
this week that Thursday could be the market high and next
Tuesday the pivotal day once expiration settlement has
occurred. I still believe that Tuesday will be critical and
it remains to be seen if the indexes will trend down from
here on year end fund selling over the next two weeks. The
lack of any upward progress over the last week could be
telegraphing a cooling of the bullish sentiment. This cooling
is far from a sure thing. I receive emails daily suggesting
Dow 11,000 could be reached soon. With earnings estimates
still rising for the 4Q, now officially at +22%, unofficially
at +26%, there is plenty of reason to expect more gains
before the year is out. However, once earnings are "perceived"
to be over for this quarter the urge to take some cash off
the table could be strong.

Using the roller coaster analogy from Tuesday, after a long
climb we are beginning to level out. We still cannot see over
the top to glimpse what is ahead but the tension is building.
If the normal trend is buy the rumor, sell the news then what
rumors are investors going to buy next week? Friday is flat
economically with only Residential Construction and the final
revision of the October Consumer Sentiment. Neither should be
market moving. Next week is blank economically with only the
Semi Book-to-bill on Monday night of importance. This leaves
nothing to stimulate investors except for more earnings and
we already know how that book ends. Typically the farther we
get into earnings the weaker they become. The bigger blue
chips with the best earnings announce first with the crowd
of small to midcaps stretched over the next three weeks.
There are still some big names left for investors to follow
so we have not reached the credits on the earnings movie yet.
You do sit through the credits when you go to the movies,
right? We still have MSFT, AMZN and MMM leading a list of
over 700 companies that will announce next week. There will
be plenty of news but the question is will it be enough news
to power the markets higher? Keep those seatbelts fastened.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.


Starcraft Corp - STCR - close: 33.51 change: -0.48

WHAT TO WATCH: This pick up truck and SUV maker has been
channeling lower in a great bull flag consolidation pattern.
Bulls just need to see a convincing breakout above its trend of
declining highs to put shorts on the run.  STCR's MACD indicator
just turned bullish today as the stock price flirts with its
simple 50-dma.  Earnings are tough to nail down so do your
homework.  Our target would be $40.00.


WebEx Communications - WEBX - close: 25.32 change: +2.10

WHAT TO WATCH: Closing at new 18-month highs and surging higher
by 9 percent were shares of WEBX just hours before their Q3
earnings report.  After the bell this afternoon the company
announced earnings of 18 cents/share beating estimates by 4
cents.  Revenues were up strongly and the company gave an upbeat
guidance for the fourth quarter.  The question now is whether or
not that was a strong enough report to keep the shorts on the
run.  Shares have been enjoying a short squeeze with the latest
numbers reporting short interest over 40% of the float.


XM Satellite Radio - XMSR - close: 20.31 change: +1.48

WHAT TO WATCH: XMSR has also been hitting new highs in the month
of October and shares hit a new one-year high today.  We noticed
that volume started coming in strong in the second half of the
session fueling the rally.  The $21 level has been resistance
since November of 2000 and shorts could be panicking with the
stock so near a multi-year breakout.  XMSR also has very strong
short interest near 40% of the float.


J.B.Hunt Transport - JBHT - close: 25.02 change: -1.25

WHAT TO WATCH: Trucker JBHT has been rolling higher for months.
Its double bottom in February and March of this year near $11.50
set the stage for a powerful rally to $28.50 last week.  Now
shares are under pressure as investors take profits.  JBHT
reported Q3 earnings on Tuesday of this week and the results were
great.  Revenues jumped to $622 million.  Earnings were
exceptional at 41 cents compared to last year's 21 cents and
current estimates for 32 cents a share.  Unfortunately, JBHT
warned that the Q4 '03 would mirror last years where earnings
slipped about 20% and the company would probably face another
driver shortage.  The stock has broken its rising channel and
support at the simple 50-dma and the $26.00 mark.  A 38.2%
retracement of the March-October run would put JBHT near $22.00.

Market Sentiment

Tug of War
- Linda Piazza

Thursday, those who believe in an improving economy engaged in a
tug-of-war with those who believe differently.  With the sides
equally weighted, U.S. bourses soon settled into the pin-them-to-
a-number trading pattern that has become typical of Thursday's
trading during option expiration week.  Early earnings and
economic releases did little to arm either side with more
strength than the other.  September CPI met expectations of a 0.1
percent increase, and core CPI increased 0.3 percent, slightly
higher than the expected 0.2 percent increase.  Initial claims
fell 4,000 from the previous week's number, and capacity
utilization and industrial production met expectations.  The
Nikkei closed above 11,000 for the first time in a month, but the
European markets were headed down.  Markets weighed IBM's outlook
against Ford's.  After digesting the various earnings reports,
economic reports, and foreign market performances, market
participants wrestled the markets to equilibrium levels . . .
until the noon release of the October Philadelphia Fed number.

At a surprisingly high 28, that Philadelphia Fed number far
exceeded the previous month's 14.6 number and the expected 15.6-
to-16 figure.  Orders, hours worked, shipments, the number of
manufacturers reporting improved business conditions, and the
number of factories expecting to hire new workers in the next six
months all rose.  The release of that number armed the bulls and
weakened the knees of the bears, initiating a wave of short-
covering that drove the Dow from its 9758 level at noon to a high
of 9823 an hour later.  The S&P 500 spiked from 1047 to a high of
almost 1053.  Not one to be left out of a short-covering party,
the COMPX scrambled from 1940 to almost 1952.

Within two hours, however, the bears had managed to tug the
bullish side back, with all three indices testing their pre-
release levels again.  Then shorts capitulated and the bulls sent
the markets up again, although none of the markets reached their
early afternoon highs.  By the close, advancing issues had beat
declining issues by 19:13 on the NYSE and 18:13 on the Nasdaq.
Up volume beat down volume on both exchanges, and the new highs
had reached 564, measured against only 14 new lows.  Bullish
sentiment prevailed.

The battle may not be finished.  After-hours reports included
EBAY's warning that the company might miss Q4 earnings and SUNW's
wider Q1 loss balanced against AMD's narrowing of its Q3 loss to
9 cents.   Fortunately for those dizzied by the tug of war,
earnings and economic reports lighten on Friday.  Most earnings
will be reported before the bell.  Also released before the bell
will be September building permits and housing starts.  Building
permits are issued when excavation begins and normally lead the
housing starts figure.  Although these were not market-moving
numbers in the past, they have sometimes gained that status in
recent months as the housing sector has become so important in
our economy.  They have been coming under closer scrutiny as the
specter of rising interest rates looms over the sector.  The
prior numbers were 1.886 million building permits and 1.82
million housing starts, and the expectation is for a lower 1.835
million building permits and a higher 1.827 million housing
starts.  Housing starts had declined last month, but building
permits had picked up, indicating that residential construction
might remain strong several months out.

Just after the market opens, the Preliminary October Michigan
Sentiment number will be released.  The previous number was 87.7,
and expectations are for 88.2 for October.  At 2:00 ET, the
September Treasury Budget will be released, with expectations
varying widely.  However, with tomorrow being an option
expiration Friday, we expect to see an early effort to establish
an equilibrium level and hold the markets at that level
throughout the day.  Whether that effort will be any more
successful than Thursday's effort remains to be seen.


Market Averages


52-week High:  9850
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9791

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 9697
 50-dma: 9467
200-dma: 8767

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1053
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1050

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1040
 50-dma: 1014
200-dma:  940

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1439
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1426

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1401
 50-dma: 1339
200-dma: 1169


Hmmm... we're seeing new all-time lows on the Nasdaq's VXN and new
lows for the adjusted VIX near 17.  The old VIX (now VXO) is still
flashing caution signs at 19.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.19 -0.50
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) = 19.11 -0.15
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 25.47 -1.30


          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.65      1,050,740       678,903
Equity Only    0.51        757,559       385,965
OEX            1.17         43,019        50,509
QQQ            7.71         29,874        51,017


Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    79.0    + 0     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   83.3    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       80.9    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       78.7    + 0     Bull Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


 5-Day Arms Index  0.98
10-Day Arms Index  0.94
21-Day Arms Index  1.13
55-Day Arms Index  1.06

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning


Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1661      1771
Decliners    1145      1285

New Highs     299       313
New Lows       13         6

Up Volume   1007M     1086M
Down Vol.    609M      646M

Total Vol.  1660M     1760M
M = millions


Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/07/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

After two weeks of little movement we're beginning to see
commercial traders edge toward a more bearish position.  Looking
at the small traders we see a reduction in short positions and
they remain overall net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/09/03      418,958   486,209   (67,251)   (7.4%)
09/23/03      395,123   397,858   ( 2,735)   (0.0%)
09/30/03      395,713   397,577   ( 1,864)   (0.0%)
10/07/03      390,232   402,964   (12,732)   (1.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/09/03      176,401    81,444    94,957    36.8%
09/23/03      139,482    87,981    51,501    22.6%
09/30/03      144,681    96,801    47,880    19.8%
10/07/03      138,644    88,018    50,626    22.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

E-MINI S&P 500

We're definitely seeing a small trend in the commercials'
positions in the e-minis.  Long positions have jumped strongly,
outpacing new short positions, and the overall net short
attitude is dwindling.  Retail traders remain heavily net

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/09/03      370,909   237,610    133,299    21.9%
09/23/03      109,417   204,026   ( 94,609)  (30.2%)
09/30/03      163,828   218,991   ( 55,163)  (14.4%)
10/07/03      212,273   225,377   ( 13,104)  ( 3.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/09/03       59,692   130,270   (70,578)  (37.1%)
09/23/03      175,750    62,558   113,192    47.5%
09/30/03      131,698    65,259    66,439    33.8%
10/07/03      134,990    63,560    71,430    36.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


We're still not seeing much movement in commercials willing
to commit one way or the other in the NDX.  They're currently
net short but the margin is fading.  Small traders haven't
changed much either and remain net long.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/09/03       44,677     62,369   (17,692) (16.5%)
09/23/03       32,648     42,565   ( 9,917) (13.2%)
09/30/03       33,571     42,993   ( 9,422) (12.3%)
10/07/03       33,253     40,861   ( 7,608) (10.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
09/09/03       28,788    13,370    15,418    36.6%
09/23/03       17,862     9,880     7,982    28.8%
09/30/03       19,803     9,917     9,886    33.3%
10/07/03       18,182     9,688     8,494    30.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02


It's the same story here in the DJ futures.  There is little
change between the commercials or the small traders over all

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/09/03       25,807    10,756   15,051      41.2%
09/23/03       15,911     9,123    6,788      27.1%
09/30/03       16,561     8,932    7,629      31.5%
10/07/03       16,277     9,528    6,749      26.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
09/09/03        7,429    13,796   (6,367)   (30.0%)
09/23/03        7,505     7,779   (  274)   ( 1.8%)
09/30/03        7,578     8,125   (  547)   ( 3.5%)
10/07/03        7,392     7,910   (  518)   ( 3.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 10-16-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

Play of the Day:     Pushing Higher

Tech Stocks
  Closed Bearish Plays:  HTCH

Stock Splits/Announcements:  LSTR

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

Play-of-the-Day  ( Bullish )

TYCO - TYC - close: 22.35 change: +0.45 stop: 20.79

- Company Description -
Tyco International Ltd. is a diversified manufacturing and
service company. Tyco is the world's largest manufacturer and
servicer of electrical and electronic components; the world's
largest designer, manufacturer, installer and servicer of
undersea telecommunications systems; the world's largest
manufacturer, installer and provider of fire protection systems
and electronic security services and the world's largest
manufacturer of specialty valves. Tyco also holds strong
leadership positions in medical device products, and plastics and
adhesives. Tyco operates in more than 100 countries and had
fiscal 2002 revenues from continuing operations of approximately
$36 billion.  (Source:  Company Press Release.)

- Most Recent Update on TYC, Oct 15, 2003 -
Although press releases with TYC in the headline still tended to
center on Kozlowski's trial, one press release this week noted
that the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit affirmed a $24
million judgment against Bourns, Inc., with that judgment in
favor of TYCO Electronics.  Bourns manufactures electronic
components, and the suit involved misappropriated trade secrets
and interference with employee contracts.  It was filed by
Raychem, predating TYCO Electronics' purchase of Raychem.

TYC also announced that it was hiring Trammell Crow (TCC) to help
the company develop a plan to cut its real estate costs.  The
company also announced a $4 million deal awarded to one of its
units, Tyco Healthcare Group.

While these developments occurred, TYC consolidated beneath the
$22.00 resistance.  Wednesday's drop on big volume looked
worrisome, but a study of the intraday chart showed a huge volume
spike early in the day when TYC was moving up toward $22.00.  The
majority of the day's volume occurred on that move.  Other
indicators proved inconclusive, as stochastics begin to trend in
overbought territory, MACD flattens, and RSI tries to turn down.
The downturn in RSI may be troublesome, however, as it's turning
down from a lower high while price is making an equal high.  That
could be bearish divergence if the RSI rollover continues.

New entries can still be sought on pullbacks and bounces from
above $21.25, while those who prefer to enter on momentum can
wait for a breakout above this week's $22.09 high.

- Why This is our Play of the Day -
Despite the steady stream of potentially negative press releases
and news articles shares of TYC just keep on climbing.  The trend
of higher lows has blossomed into a breakout over the $22.00
level and the $22.09 mark we suggested as a trigger yesterday.
Volume was decent with 11.4 million shares compared to the
average of just 8 million.  Traders can hope for some follow
through on the breakout tomorrow but if the markets are weak,
look for a dip back to $22 as an entry point.

Annotated Chart for TYC:

Picked on Sep 21 at  21.90
Change since picked: +0.45
Earnings Date:    11/04/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    8 million

Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section

  Closed Bearish Plays

Hutchinson Tech. - HTCH - close: 35.29 change: +1.87 stop: 34.75

Unfortunately, our caution on HTCH was justified today.  There
appeared to be no news-driven reason for the run up but HTCH
surged 5.59% today.  The move pushed through resistance at its 21
& 30-dma and resistance near $34.50.  HTCH's MACD now looks
bullish.  We've obviously been stopped out at $34.75.

Picked on October 8th at  $32.20
Change since picked        +3.09
Earnings Date           11/03/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     503 K

Stock Splits/Announcements

LSTR lands a 2-for-1 stock split

Before today's opening bell, Landstar System, Inc's (NASDAQ:LSTR)
Board of Directors declared a 2-for-1 stock split of its common

The payable date on the stock split is November 13th, 2003 to
shareholders on record November 3rd.  This is LSTR's second stock
split since being listed on the NASDAQ in 1993.

About the company:
Landstar System, Inc. is a non-asset-based provider of
transportation capacity delivering safe, specialized
transportation services to a broad range of customers throughout
North America. The company identifies and fulfills shippers'
needs through the coordination of individual businesses comprised
of independent sales agents, business capacity owners, and other
transportation capacity providers. The term, business capacity
owner, refers to Landstar's independent contractors who operate a
small business and provide the equipment necessary to haul
(Source: Company Web Site)

  Trading Ideas

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ALL     Allstate Corp              39.90     +0.73
PGR     Progressive Corp           75.35     +0.85
HRB     H&R Block Inc              47.00     +1.25
TXT     Textron Inc                47.15     +0.64
LUK     Leucadia Natl              40.54     +0.69
UDI     United Defense Industries  30.51     +1.39

Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)

ADIC    Advanced Digital Info       17.63     +1.11
GNSS    Genesis Microchip           16.50     +1.30
NENG    Network Engines Inc         10.00     +1.11
MNTG    Mtr Gaming Group            10.88     +1.03
CCRD    Concord Communications      18.04     +1.74
WJCI    WJ Communications            6.10     +1.44

Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)

UNH     UnitedHealth Group          53.38     +2.05
FO      Fortune Brands              62.63     +1.88
QLGC    QLogic Corp                 53.89     +2.41
RDN     Radian Group                50.90     +1.40
BCR     C.R.Bard Inc                76.83     +3.53
CYN     City National Corp          56.95     +3.21
XMSR    XM Satellite Radio          20.31     +1.48

Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)

IBM     Intl Business Machines      89.28     -3.46
CAT     Caterpillar Inc             74.33     -4.39
AAPL    Apple Computer Inc          23.25     -1.57
MIL     Millipore Corp              41.92     -6.00
JBHT    JB Hunt Transport           25.02     -1.25
DLX     Deluxe Corp                 39.29     -1.71
PNR     Pentair Inc                 36.85     -3.21
FBAN    FNB Corp                    32.70     -2.38

Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

S       Sears Roebuck & Co          48.80     -2.61
DE      Deere & Co                  56.91     -1.97
IR      Ingersoll-Rand Ltd          57.81     -1.82
B       Barnes Group Inc            27.43     -0.42

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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:


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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.


Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


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