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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 11/06/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 11-06-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      New Highs Before New Jobs
Watch List:       JCOM, CCU, AMZN, CSCO and more!
Market Sentiment: The Markets Wait


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      11-06-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9856.97 + 36.10  9870.60  9773.12 1.77 bln   1848/1341
NASDAQ   1976.37 + 17.00  1977.91  1953.34 2.14 bln   1782/1325
S&P 100   523.84 +  3.59   524.27   518.14   Totals   3630/2666
S&P 500  1058.05 +  6.24  1058.94  1046.93
W5000   10324.30 + 61.20 10330.54 10220.74
RUS 2000  542.94 +  4.03   542.95   537.08
DJ TRANS 2985.49 + 52.80  2985.49  2924.50
VIX        16.74 -  0.12    17.37    16.62
VXO VIX-O  17.58 +  0.02    18.60    17.58
VXN        25.35 +  0.15    26.14    25.27
Total Volume 4,279M
Total UpVol  2,910M
Total DnVol  1,322M
52wk Highs  854
52wk Lows    23
TRIN       0.77
NAZTRIN    0.63
PUT/CALL   0.77
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

New Highs Before New Jobs

Bullishness breaking out all over on positive economic news
and hopes for good news tomorrow. The Nasdaq led the day on
the strength of Cisco earnings and it rescued the Dow from
a sure sell off. Traders bought the rumor of a good Jobs
report tomorrow morning and the indexes closed near the
highs of the day.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


Starting the day off was the Chain Store Sales for October
at +3.2% and nearly half the +5.9% rate for September. The
same store sales rates across various retailers painted a
picture of weather related slowness with warmer weather
delaying the purchase of winter clothes. Halloween goods
were reportedly strong but seasonal apparel was weak. The
Bank of Tokyo is currently projecting a rebound to +5%
growth in November and +4% in December as the economy
continues to recover and comparisons with a weak 2002
become easier.

The biggest surprise for the day was the huge drop in the
Jobless Claims. The claims for last week dropped -43,000
from the prior week which was revised up to 391K just as
we expected. The very unexpected drop was well below the
consensus estimates of 376,000. This dropped the four-week
moving average to 380,000 and its lowest level since Jan
2001. Any level under 400,000 signifies a stabilizing
labor market and a number under 350,000 indicates a
recovering labor market. Continuing claims have also
fallen below 3.6 million for the last three weeks.
This huge drop in claims is similar to the drop in 1992
when the economy was recovering from that recession and
the Iraq war. Hopefully this is the start of a new trend.
You know I cannot let this extreme deviation from the norm
pass without expressing doubts about the numbers. Of the
52 states/territories that report claims ONLY SEVEN actually
reported a drop in claims. 45 reported a rise in claims.
Initially I immediately thought California must have had
an impact on the drop due to the fires but they actually
reported an increase of +13,539 for the week. I cannot
find anything that would explain the drop given the state
ratios but I would still be skeptical until next weeks
revision. The market was also skeptical. There was a very
small spike on the announcement which immediately sold off
and no gains for the entire morning.

Other bullish data that was also ignored was the Productivity
for Q3 which increased at a whopping +8.1%. This was the
biggest jump since Q1-2001. Helping fuel this gain was an
increase in the hours worked. This increase in productivity
was also due to the continued trimming of the work force.
Fewer workers, longer hours, restructured manufacturing
plants and more orders produced more output. The constant
pressure to raise earnings in a down economy has forced
employers to do more with less. The faster the order demand
increases the more productivity will jump as the basic lines
are in place and capacity utilization is still only in the
75% range.

Last night Cisco beat estimates and soared in after hours
trading. Overnight the futures sold off substantially from
those highs after the Nikkei dropped -285 points despite
the reasonably good tech news. After the very good Jobless
Claims and high Productivity numbers this morning there was
no bounce at the open and the Dow sank to support at 9780
right out of the gate. Traders were in shock again. Just
like the very bad Layoff report earlier in the week they
just did not know what to do with the numbers. If they were
ready to sell good news it was more good news than they were
ready to accept. The Dow hugged support at 9780 until just
after noon and actually absorbed a very large amount of
selling in that range. The volume was very strong until
about 11:30 as the battle for control was fought and then
it just suddenly stopped. The markets remained soft but
slowly saw a pickup in the buying as the afternoon
progressed as bulls bought the jobs rumor and shorts
covered just in case the rumor was true.

The rumor is of course the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. The
consensus estimates run from +50,000 to +63,000 jobs. The
whisper numbers run from +125,000 to a whopping +200,000
jobs. Helping to fuel this rumor were comments from both
Greenspan and Bernanke on jobs growth. Sound familiar?
Remember last month when five Fed heads hit the airwaves
the day before the Payroll report with strong comments on
the jobless recovery? The various comments led investors
to believe that the jobs number was going to be a disaster
and everyone was shorting heavily ahead of the number. The
actual number was for a gain of +57,000 jobs and the market
exploded on short covering after the news. Of course the
Fed heads already knew the number when they went on their
speaking binge. It was a perfect setup and the markets
fell for it completely.

Using the same thought process we discussed on the monitor
today what we should expect after the Greenspan/Bernanke
two step on jobs. Adding in the -43,000 drop in jobless
claims and traders were thinking moon shot. First, the
Jobless Claims were for last week and are only an advance
number and will not be a factor in the payroll number.
The payroll number is based on a survey done around the
third week of the month. The jobless claims were in the
391,000 range for that week. This produces a potential
for a disappointment on Friday. The +57,000 gain last
month was the first gain in seven months and well over
the consensus estimate of -25,000. Now, since the dynamic
duo knew the outcome before they started speaking today
were they trying to give investors hope because the number
is going to disappoint or were they just trying to jump
on the popularity wagon to push a positive release to
even better heights? We will not know until tomorrow but
the markets are setup for a potential disappointment if
the consensus numbers are not beaten.

Still what will a disappointment mean to the markets. With
the rally on the bad layoff news this week it appears the
markets are bad news driven more than good. We sold off on
the good Jobless and Productivity and rallied on the layoffs.
Everyone believes there is a recovery in progress and every
piece of bad news we get now will just keep the Fed on the
sidelines longer. It is a bad news/good news joke in
progress. Despite the positive reports this morning the Fed
Funds futures are still not predicting any change until May.
This and the "considerable period" comments from the Fed
have taken the risk out of the bond market for the near term
and should continue to fuel the recovery. The first quarter
will see another round of tax checks to help the consumer
sector and that should be the final shot that the Fed will
ignore before the rate hike cycle begins. If they could
I am sure they would like to wait until Q3-2004 and give
the home builder sector one more massive injection of
liquidity before the lid slams shut. The Fed Funds rate
is not the real controlling factor for consumer interest
but the bond market controls that sector. The bond rates
are already rising and that will put pressure on the
recovery but they cannot get too far ahead with the Fed
funds at one percent.

A bigger challenge to the market this month is the mutual
fund trading scandal. Every day the number of funds under
investigation grows and now the investigation is moving
into the brokers who recommended those funds. The NASD
said today they had found problems with a dozen major
brokers and were expanding their probe. The evidence of
the impact of the scandal came in the cash flow numbers
today. Remember two weeks ago when TrimTabs was saying
that October could go down as a record month for inflows
with an estimated $30 billion? Surprise, October flows
slowed dramatically with the advent of the probes and the
current tally shows October ending with only $17 billion
in inflows. That $13 billion drop from the estimates could
easily have been a result of offsetting outflows or simply
a hesitance to put more money into funds that may be guilty.
Two weeks ago funds saw $4 billion in inflows, last week
only $1.2 billion. If the spigot is tightening until the
scandal is over then we could be in for a long dry spell.
There are rumors of an impending settlement with funds but
we are far too early in the process to know how each fund
may be impacted by the settlement. It could literally be
in the billions and it could cause some funds significant
cash flow problems. I think this may be the sleeping
giant that could awaken to bite us.

We got some more good news today from the Semiconductor
Industry Association. They upgraded their estimates for
revenue growth for 2003 to +15.8% and to +19.4% for 2004.
To put this into perspective the 2002 growth was only
+1.3%. This is good news for tech stocks and chips in
general as it means the top line is increasing. This
helped push the Nasdaq to close at 1976 and only a stones
throw from 2000. This was another new 52-week high for
the index. The semiconductor index hit a new high of 525
on the news.

The stage is set for Friday. Dow 10,000 and Nasdaq 2,000
are just one strong move above us. A blowout Jobs number
could cause massive short covering and bullish buying and
we could easily hit those numbers at the open. EXCEPT
that this would be too easy. There was some short covering
into the close but it was limited. Very few people appear
to be either short or concerned about being short. The
Jobless Claims this morning should have sent the indexes
to news highs at the open and it fizzled well before the
open. Blowout good news could actually have a reverse
impact on the markets. If jobs suddenly rocketed to +200K
as some whisper numbers expect then bonds would get killed
as well as stocks based on an acceleration of the rate
hike time table. You saw it this morning. Great news and
no positive market reaction.

That leaves us with a quandary. If the number is good and
the market sells off do we buy the dip? Worked every week
since March. If the number is bad do we buy the dip? I
believe that whatever happens the indexes are still shooting
for the 10000/2000 mark and traders will find some way to
justify buying stocks this close to the psychological
target. This could actually be investor suicide but bulls
are not interested in that concept. The general consensus
among traders (not investors) is the plan to short 10K/2K
with both hands. Regardless of what scenario pushes it to
that level the plan is no secret.

Now, we all know what happens when the entire trading
community agrees on a single plan? Disaster. It could be
a monster bear trap. The Fed has already shown that is has
no fear of doing whatever is required to juice the markets.
If ever there was an opportunity to catch traders off guard
this could be it. They could be feeding the market just
enough to keep the bullishness going until we get to that
level. Once all the bears load up on shorts the Fed could
trigger a massive support program and we blow out the top
to new highs well over 10K. I know there are a lot of
readers that think this is heresy. However one of the
Fed mandates is to power the economy and one way to do
that is the juice the markets. Governments buying securities
happens all the time and it would be no stretch of the
imagination to have Greenspan strike a deal with an Asian
country that is hoarding dollars. They could easily put
those dollars to work in our markets when signaled and
actually make a profit on the deal. The Fed intervenes in
markets for them on request so turnabout is fair play.
Obviously this is just speculation but there have been so
many unexplained buy programs at key turning points in the
past that it would be easier to believe this scenario than
one where millions of investors suddenly decided to invest
their life savings in the market at the same exact moment.
Don't fight the Fed. That axiom did not just appear over
night. It has been around far longer than most of us have
been trading.

The bottom line tonight is uncertainty. Nobody knows what
will happen at the open but I would expect the better odds
are for a sell the news event than an explosion on good
news. Either way if we do not have a big market move by
noon trading will probably go dormant and attention will
shift to the Richmond and Kansas City Fed reports on
Monday. We are at the highs and earnings are over. The
VXO is still around 17.50. Funds are in trouble and traders
could be disappointed by the Jobs report. Tomorrow may
be a tossup but next week could be a challenge.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------


j2 Global Communications - JCOM - close: 28.50 change: -1.35

WHAT TO WATCH: We recently had JCOM listed as a bearish play and
regretfully we had our stop set just a bit too tight and got
taken out on an intraday spike.  But the stock is once again
rolling over and looks like a solid breakdown candidate below
$28.25.  Look for an initial drop to $25, with the potential for
continuation down to strong support near $22.50.




---

Clear Channel Communications - CCU - close: 42.17 change: +1.30

WHAT TO WATCH: It has been a bit of a volatile ride for investors
in CCU over the past several weeks, with the stock ping-ponging
between $38-42.  But things changed in favor of the bulls on
Thursday, with the stock breaking and closing above $42.  This
looks like a legitimate breakout.  Entries near current levels
look viable ahead of an expected rally up towards the September
highs near $46.




---

Amazon.com, Inc. - AMZN - close: 54.99 change: -1.75

WHAT TO WATCH: It seemed the Internets would never fall out of
favor, but that certainly appears to be what is happening right
now.  AMZN is leading the weakness and with today's break back
inside its ascending channel, the stock has risk down to the $50
area, with potential down to strong support at $47.  Use a
trigger below $54 and a stop of $57.




---

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 22.90 change: +1.10

WHAT TO WATCH: It may be a bit soon to play it after the company
announced earnings yesterday, but investors seemed to like the
news, launching the stock through major resistance for a 5% gain
on more than 115 million shares today.  A pullback to confirm new
support in the $22.00-22.50 area will likely make the best entry
into the play, with $25 being a viable upside target.






===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================


MMM $79.60 - This is definitely not for the faint of heart, as
MMM has risen enough since July to give a bull vertigo when
looking at the weekly chart.  But the price action near $80
resistance looks interesting and a breakout above that level
appears to have room to run.

DNA $84.45 - Shares of DNA got hit by a serious bout of profit
taking over the past several weeks, but things are changing this
week, with a rebound from support near $80 helping to create a
breakout over recent congestion.  Look for a return to the recent
highs near $88 and a potential breakout, with $95 being a longer-
term target.

PGR $76.01 - The Insurance stock for momentum bulls, PGR looks
like it is about to embark on another breakout move.  Nearly 5
months after first reaching the $76 level, the stock has once
again achieved that goal, this time with a very bullish looking
ascending channel chart pattern.  Use a trigger over $76.25 and
look for an initial move to $80, with potential for higher levels
based on the way the stock tends to trade.




===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

The Markets Wait
- J. Brown

The sentiment will be brief tonight because investors are all
waiting on one thing - the Jobs report tomorrow.  Or more
specifically the non-farm payrolls report.  The general estimate
is for an increase of 67,000 jobs but several big analyst firms
have estimates in the 120,000 to 125,000 range.  There is even a
whisper number closer to 200,000.  Should the report disappoint
it could be very painful for the bulls.  Jim does an excellent
job discussing the jobs report in his wrap tonight.

The CSCO report last night had set up tech traders with
expectations for a rally today so the early morning weakness came
as a surprise.  Yet by the close most stocks were higher with the
heaviest buying in technology (software, semiconductors, biotech)
and the heaviest selling in gold.  The market internals were
pretty bullish and are much more revealing than the closing
numbers on the DJIA or the COMPX.

Advancing issues outpaced decliners 17 to 11 on the NYSE and 17
to 12 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was about double down volume on
the NYSE and the NASDAQ.  Total volume was decent.

Trade carefully.  There are a lot of traders just waiting for the
indices to hit the psychological markers at 10,000 and 2,000 on
the Dow and NASDAQ.  Whether that proves to be a top or the
beginning to our next surge higher is up for grabs but I'd be
extra cautious about betting on the bulls.  They're looking
mighty tired.




-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9896
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9856

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9767
 50-dma: 9604
200-dma: 8855

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1061
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1058

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1047
 50-dma: 1030
200-dma:  950

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1445
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1440

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1416
 50-dma: 1380
200-dma: 1196


-----------------------------------------------------------------

There is little change here.  The fear indices were little
changed as the broader markets crawled higher.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.74 -0.12
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 17.58 +0.02
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 25.35 +0.15


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.77        669,108       512,323
Equity Only    0.61        548,140       336,513
OEX            1.03         15,694        16,108
QQQ            0.73         22,150        16,076


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.7    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    74.0    - 2     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       80.6    + 1     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       79.0    + 0     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.08
10-dma: 1.06
21-dma: 1.06
55-dma: 1.10


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1704      1782
Decliners    1101      1261

New Highs     291       296
New Lows       14        12

Up Volume   1115M     1426M
Down Vol.    591M      646M

Total Vol.  1725M     2086M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/28/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

It's been a long week since last we looked at the COT data
and we're still not seeing any big moves by the Commercial
traders.  The same holds true for small traders but they did
reduce some of their short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/07/03      390,232   402,964   (12,732)   (1.6%)
10/14/03      391,972   410,299   (18,327)   (2.3%)
10/21/03      394,176   411,246   (17,070)   (2.1%)
10/28/03      391,596   412,498   (20,902)   (2.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/07/03      138,644    88,018    50,626    22.3%
10/14/03      133,940    86,418    47,522    21.6%
10/21/03      136,643    88,290    48,343    21.5%
10/28/03      137,791    76,791    61,000    28.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Hmm... we are seeing some movement in the e-minis.  Commercials
have upped their short positions by 24K contracts.  Small Traders
may have gotten the hint too.  Short interest is up but the real
change is the 45K drop in long contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/07/03      212,273   225,377    (13,104)  ( 3.0%)
10/14/03      221,897   233,066    (11,169)  ( 2.5%)
10/21/03      226,985   236,906    ( 9,921)  ( 2.2%)
10/28/03      220,171   260,644    (40,473)  ( 8.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/07/03      134,990    63,560    71,430    36.0%
10/14/03      161,208    59,213   101,995    46.3%
10/21/03      168,236    56,564   111,672    49.7%
10/28/03      123,569    59,742    63,827    34.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

This time it's the Small Traders making a move in the NDX
futures.  Long contracts are up nearly a third to more than
21K.  Commercials are still comatose but the trend is growing
slowly more bearish with a small bump in short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/07/03       33,253     40,861   ( 7,608) (10.3%)
10/14/03       34,639     41,880   ( 7,241) ( 9.5%)
10/21/03       36,314     43,305   ( 6,991) ( 8.8%)
10/28/03       36,168     46,272   (10,104) (12.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/07/03       18,182     9,688     8,494    30.5%
10/14/03       16,822     9,046     7,776    30.1%
10/21/03       16,917     9,750     7,167    26.9%
10/28/03       21,640     8,830    12,810    42.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

There is very little change here for the Small Trader but
Commercial Traders have upped both their longs and their shorts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/07/03       16,277     9,528    6,749      26.2%
10/14/03       16,595     9,433    7,162      27.5%
10/21/03       16,876     9,037    7,839      30.3%
10/28/03       20,504    11,366    9,138      28.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/07/03        7,392     7,910   (  518)   ( 3.4%)
10/14/03        6,427     8,495   (2,068)   (13.9%)
10/21/03        5,392     8,842   (3,450)   (23.1%)
10/28/03        5,295     8,864   (3,569)   (25.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03



-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 11-06-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================


Play of the Day:           Into The Gap

Stop Loss Adjustments:     FLML, T, IR

Stock Split Announcements: CRRC

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Play-of-the-Day  ( bearish )
===============

Flamel Tech. S.A. - FLML - cls: 24.30 chng: -0.56 stop: 27.50*new*

Company Description:
Flamel Technologies S.A. is a biopharmaceutical company
principally engaged in the development of two polymer-based
delivery technologies for medical applications. The company's
Micropump technology is a multi-particulate technology for oral
administration of small molecule drugs with applications in
controlled release, tastemasking and bioavailability enhancement.
FLML has three major products based on its Micropump technology:
Asacard, a controlled-release formulation of aspirin for the
treatment of cardiovascular disease; Metformin XL, a controlled-
release form of Metformin that is in development for use for the
treatment of Type II diabetes, and Genvir, a controlled-release
acyclovir for the treatment of genital herpes. In addition, Flamel
has developed new herbicide delivery systems and has patented a
biomaterial, ColCys.

Why we like it:
While it isn't setting any speed records, FLML is performing
nicely so far, having crept its way below the $25 support level on
Wednesday, although just barely.  Ever since this downtrend began,
the 10-dma ($26.86) has been providing intraday resistance and it
did just that again on Tuesday as FLML rolled over again.  The
price is now technically into the gap from late August.  That's
the first step along the path to reaching our $20 target and
traders that took an entry on the failed rebound at the 10-dma
yesterday look to be in good shape.  Additional failed bounces
near that moving average can still be used for entry, while
momentum traders can now look for entry on a break below today's
intraday low ($24.20).  There may be some mild support found in
the $22.25-22.50 area on the way down, so conservative traders can
look to harvest some gains near that level, once reached.  Lower
stops to $28, which is just above the intraday highs on Tuesday.

Why This is our Play of the Day
Making steady progress since breaking into the late-August gap,
FLML has just been inching its way lower in very methodical
fashion.  That last failed bounce earlier this week rolled over
right at the 10-dma (now at $26.43) and we should see that
behavior repeated between now and the time the stock fills in its
gap down to the $21.30 level.  Of course, we're still targeting a
drop to $20 due to the fact that it looks like a more substantial
support level than the bottom of the gap.  Failed bounces below
the 10-dma look like the best entry strategy for now, although
with the way FLML continues to deteriorate, entering on a break
below today's intraday low ($23.97) should work as well.  Lower
stops to $27.55 tonight, which is just above the top ($27.50) of
the failed rebound from earlier in the week.

Annotated Chart of FLML:



Picked on November 2nd at $25.25
Change since picked        -0.95
Earnings Date            1/29/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.58 mln



=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

FLML - short
Adjust from $28.00 down to $27.50

T - short
Adjust from $20.49 down to $20.05

IR - long
Adjust from $57.50 up to $58.30



=================================================================
Stock Split Announcements
=================================================================


CRRC publishes a 3-for-2 stock split and quarterly cash dividend

Mid session today, Courier Corporation (NASDAQ:CRRC) announced that
its Board of Directors has approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its
common shares and a quarterly cash dividend.

The payable date for the stock split is set for December 5th, 2003
to shareholders on record November 17th.  Along with the stock
split CRRC announced a quarterly cash dividend of 13.125 cents per
share of common stock.  This is 17% higher than their previous
quarter cash dividend of 11.25 cents per pre-split share of common
stock.  The payable date for the new quarterly cash dividend is
set for December 5th, 2003 to shareholders on record November
17th.  This is CRRC's first stock split since the middle of 2001.

About the company:
Courier Corporation publishes, prints and sells books.
Headquartered in North Chelmsford, MA, Courier has two lines of
business: full-service book manufacturing and specialty
publishing. For more information, visit www.courier.com.
(Source: Company Press Release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

UTX     United Technologies        87.33     +0.93
GCI     Gannett Co                 85.57     +0.86
BNK     Banknorth Group            32.65     +0.60
ROST    Ross Stores                53.75     +1.63
WL      Wilmington Trust           34.68     +0.64
BJ      BJ's Wholesale             26.56     +0.56

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ARXX    Aeroflex Inc               11.63     +1.25
TOO     Too Inc                    18.28     +1.38
TTEC    Teletech Holdings           8.01     +1.32
SMTL    Semitool Inc               11.30     +1.45
SIPX    Sipex Corp                 10.76     +1.08
ACET    Aceto Corp                 17.89     +1.72

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

CSCO    Cisco Systems              22.90     +1.10
BUD     Anheuser-Busch             50.49     +1.27
UNP     Union Pacific              64.93     +1.62
HIG     Hartford Financial Srv     57.45     +2.44
GPS     Gap Inc                    20.28     +1.57
TJX     TJX Companies              22.20     +1.55
FD      Federated Dept             48.26     +1.21

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

IACI    Interactive Corp           32.66     -1.53
KSS     Kohl's Corp                52.30     -1.90
TLB     Talbots Inc                29.64     -3.36
MWRK    Mothers Work               24.37     -3.86

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

RIO     Vale Do Rio Doce           44.00     -1.20
DLTR    Dollar Tree Stores         36.86     -1.53
NFLX    Netflix Inc                50.83     -7.89
RX      IMS Health                 22.55     -0.32



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