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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 11/11/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 11-11-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Pause to Reflect
Watch List:       CMCSK, RSAS, BBY, JDAS and more!
Market Sentiment: Markets Slump Again

MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
      11-11-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9737.79 - 18.70  9761.20  9719.05 1.43 bln   1291/1892
NASDAQ   1930.75 - 10.90  1944.01  1923.50 1.63 bln   1088/2051
S&P 100   518.66 -  0.11   519.58   517.11   Totals   2379/3943
S&P 500  1046.57 -  0.54  1048.23  1043.46
W5000   10194.56 - 20.40 10221.12 10167.22
RUS 2000  528.57 -  4.64   533.42   526.76
DJ TRANS 2927.24 - 52.10  2963.76  2935.28
VIX        17.54 -  0.08    18.53    17.50
VXO (VIX-O)18.00 +  0.05    18.53    17.86
VXN        26.55 +  0.06    26.99    26.54
Total Volume 3,294M
Total UpVol  1,116M
Total DnVol  2,099M
52wk Highs  281
52wk Lows    25
TRIN       1.11
NAZTRIN    0.96
PUT/CALL   0.96

Market Wrap

Pause to Reflect

While the country paused to observe Veterans Day the markets
paused to reflect on direction. Volume for the last two days
has been very low with Monday failing to break three billion
shares across all markets. There were no material economic
reports and no material news. However, there was a material
change in the market internals.

Dow Chart

Nasdaq Chart

The only economic report was the weekly Chain Store Sales and
the number showed a significant +1.2% bounce. This was the
largest gain since +1.3% on Oct-4th but barely enough to
recover the drain over the last four weeks. The cold weather
finally appeared and drove shoppers to the stores to buy more
seasonal clothing. However, the Bank of Tokyo lowered their
estimates for the month to +4% from +5% based on the overall
trend. Retailers are still expecting a strong holiday season
but price competition is going to be tough. The price wars
online have already started and profits are going to be hard
to capture.

Since the markets were not moved by the numbers there was
another factor at work. The mutual fund cloud appears to be
growing and that worry kept the normally bullish holiday in
the negative column. According to Putman they suffered -$14
billion in mutual fund outflows last week. This was more than
the -$10 billion previously reported and in addition to -$9
billion in withdrawals on other managed assets. This is a
major hit to Putman in the range of about -5% of their fund
assets. Typically some funds keep 2% to 3% of their assets
in cash for redemptions and buying opportunities. This was
about twice their cash held in reserve. Alliance funds also
said they saw -$14 billion in withdrawals last week.

A Morningstar spokesman said they had talked to several fund
managers at Putman and they confirmed they were selling stock
to raise cash. How they were selling differed among managers.
Some were selling a "slice" or a percentage of everything in
the portfolio and others were just liquidating stocks they
no longer wished to hold. Since Putman is generally a large
cap fund family you only need to look at GE or MSFT to see
some selling pressure. Contrasting them with MMM and INTC
you can see that the weaker of those are being dumped while
the stronger earners are fairing better. It is not that GE
and MSFT do not produce strong profits but they both had
some qualifications in their earnings that caused analysts
to expect less growth in the future. Plus, they are the
biggest and most liquid large caps. Funds can get out easy
and not ripple the market. Also, funds seeing a cash drain
could continue to sell into any bounce to raise additional
cash for future redemptions and to replenish their normal
cash reserves.

Adding to the fund problems were comments today that the
founder of the Strong funds could be subject to criminal
prosecution for market timing his own funds for friends and
family. He created an additional $600,000 profits from the
trades and has volunteered to repay anyone that was harmed
by the process. What is harming investors is the constant
stream of bad news about these funds under fire. The Gallup
organization ran a poll in the last week of October and
before the latest volley of bad news. They found that 51%
of investors with money in funds would probably withdraw
their money from any fund with problems.

The bright side of this equation is these investors are pure
stock investors and that money will be put back to work in
other funds relatively quickly. Funds benefiting from the
switch are Fidelity and Vanguard which have not been charged.
Conflicting fund flow data also appeared today. AMG Data
said that $24 billion flowed into funds in October. This was
more than $17 billion that TrimTabs had estimated just last
week. We have seen this in the past as each firm calculates
the numbers differently. The numbers for November are sure
to be even more confusing as investors shuffle record amounts
of money into different funds.

Another worry is that funds under attack or expected to
come under attack could start looking at locking in their
gains to produce strong year end ads in order to rebuild their
image. This could produce selling into any bounce to try and
maximize gains.

Other worries are slipping through the markets. There is a
persistent rumor that Greenspan could make a preemptive
strike and raise rates 25 points at the December meeting.
The move while miniscule would signal an end to the neutral
bias and show that the Fed was ready to attack the coming
inflation flu. Personally I think this is pure bull and not
worth a honorable mention but it is making the rounds. The
reason I do not expect any Fed action other than maybe a
bias change or the removal of the "considerable period"
clause from the statement is due to the lack of a recovery.
Yes, I said it but it is not what you think.

The official estimates for the 4Q GDP are hitting the wires
again and they range from +3.9% to +4.0%. But the estimates
for the 2004 GDP have been raised to +4.2%. You were expecting
more? Forrester Research announced this week that IT spending
for all of 2004 is only expected to grow +4%. They said they
expect companies to remain cautious until the recovery is
well under way. Once the rate hikes start there is likely to
be a period of consolidation and hesitation until we see if
the hikes kill the recovery. More bull since all recoveries
are accompanied by higher rates but that is another story.
What will slow the markets is ten year rates over 4.75%.
This is the level where conservative funds can feel
comfortable switching from risky stocks to safe bonds.

The problem it appears is the validity of the GDP numbers
for the 3Q. There are different trains of thought on why the
GDP numbers were so high. The general consensus was pumping
of autos at little or no profit to keep the pipelines moving
and the continued activity in the housing sector. I suspect
it may be a little more basic than that. If you remember the
Retail Sales for September were +5.9% and everybody was
bragging about how fast the consumer was ramping up. This
followed a hot August pace at +5.1%. Most people do not
realize that merchandise for the coming holidays must be
ordered 3-6 months or even more in advance. The drop dead
order date for most merchandise is the end of August or
early September. With the lowest inventory to sales levels
on record and a strong ramp in August and September the urge
to order holiday merchandise was probably strong. How much
of this holiday ordering impacted the 3Q GDP is unknown.
What is known is that any holiday orders that contributed
to the +7.2% GDP surge are now history. That merchandise is
either in stores or will be in stores over the next week to
take advantage of the Thanksgiving shopping spree. This means
there could be a pause in orders and production for consumer
goods until retailers see how the holiday season progresses.
It could also mean that the November jobs report could show
a loss of jobs once again.

The true test will be the 4Q-GDP, which is not announced
until late January. We also need to see if the job growth
sticks or whether that was a one time bounce. We will see
the Nov. Jobs on Dec-5th. With the next Fed meeting not
until Dec-9th it is far too soon to start worrying about
a preemptive rate hike. Anybody that thinks they know
Greenspan's next move in advance is on drugs. While he will
want to be on the lookout for the inflation flu it is not
even a remote risk at present. He can do more to further the
recovery by sitting on his hands than by trying to micromanage
the bounce. He is widely credited with killing the last bubble
so I doubt he wants to step in front of the canons again so

Despite the minor sell off of the last three days the market
sentiment is still very bullish. Only today did the internals
begin to show weakness but on holiday volume it would be
tough to draw any conclusions. About the only fly in the long
term ointment is the vast discrepancy between insider buying
and insider selling. According to Thompson Financial there
was only $52 million dollars of inside buying in October.
This is not even a drop in the bucket much less bullish
confirmation of the future economic outlook. They also show
that insider selling was exploding with $59 of insider selling
for every $1 of insider buying. This is the WORST ratio since
records have been kept. (15 years) This is a long term
sentiment indicator that has proven accurate in the past.

A short-term indicator is the number of new highs/lows. The
number of new highs topped out in the recent rally at +1172
on Nov-3rd. They eased off slightly and then rebounded to
1066 on Friday. Monday there were 600 and today 281. While
this is a significant drop both Monday and Tuesday were very
low volume days and are not statistically valid. Should the
volume pick up on Wednesday as expected and the numbers
continue to decline then it would be very negative. The VXO
spent most of the day over 18 due to three days of light
selling but fell back under 18 just before the close. Despite
the selling there is still no fear in the markets.

Earnings are still in progress with over 200 late reporters
due out in the next three days. JCP fell today after announcing
a -56% drop in earnings due to losses at its Eckerd Drug Store
chain. ANF dropped -2.5% after the bell after announcing a drop
in same store sales of -9% and warned that the 4Q sales could
be flat. They guided analysts to 93 cents for the 4Q and that
was less than the $1.00 that was expected. AMAT announces on
Wednesday and WMT and Dell on Thursday. CSCO gave cautious
comments at their shareholder meeting and said that customers
remain extremely conservative despite the apparent recovery
in progress. Chambers said this was the least "risk taking"
environment he had ever seen. He also said he was only
cautiously optimistic that the telecommunications sector
was rebounding. Not a very cheerful overall outlook. Adding
to the gloom was a serious drop, -303 points, in the Nikkei
last night to punctuate a -1000 point drop in the last three

To recap all the above we have verified selling in mutual
funds, unverified rumors of a preemptive rate hike, heavy
insider selling and disappointing results by JCP and ANF.
CSCO appeared to be backing up slightly and the Nikkei is
imploding. Despite all the bad news the Dow is only down
-115 points in the last three sessions. The Nasdaq is down
-46 points. This is hardly a sell off or even light profit
taking. Now that the jobs report has passed traders appear
to be just taking a breather. The two-day holiday and that
is what it was if you look at the volume, was a chance for
everyone to step back and look at the picture and decide
what they are going to do over the next six weeks. Six
weeks! That is all that is left in this year. Do they keep
them and hope for the rally to continue or do they sell
them and chalk up huge gains. Based on the minimal
reaction to nearly $30 billion in fund withdrawals I would
say the plan was to hold and hope for more.

The next three days are going to be critical. Monday and
Tuesday were throwaways due to the holiday. Friday was also
in that category because of the job shock. Now all the news
has been digested and the direction we take between now and
Friday could be our direction for the rest of the year. The
lack of material selling could be a leading indicator but
there are very strong opinions on both sides. Watch the
internals the rest of the week and hope for strong volume.
The bulls need for the new highs to break 1000 again and
the advance/decline volume needs to be better than 3:1 in
favor of advancers. If we get that then we might get another
chance at Dow 10,000. If we get 3:1 down volume on more
than four billion shares then it may be time to step aside.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.


Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - close: 30.40 change: -0.87

WHAT TO WATCH: Today's news of a retail alliance between CMCSK
and Staples did little for the bulls, as the stock went sharply
the other way, losing 2.78% and coming to rest right at the 50-
dma.  Today's break of the ascending trendline does not bode well
and could be the beginning of a move down to the $27-28 area.
Ideal entries will come from a failed rebound near $31, although
momentum entries below the 50-dma could work as well.


RSA Security, Inc. - RSAS - close: 14.13 change: +1.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Since breaking down in mid-October following
disappointment over earnings, shares of RSAS have been
consolidating between $13-14.  That range broke today, with the
stock soaring nearly 10% higher on volume that more than doubled
the ADV.  It is notable that the intraday high was stopped at the
confluence of the 30-dma and 50-dma.  Upside continuation to the
bottom of the gap just over $15 looks like a high-odds bet,
although a better entry may come on a pullback and rebound from
the $13.60-13.80 area.  Should the stock really be getting
started on a renewed bullish move, the $16.50 looks reasonable as
a target.


Best Buy Company - BBY - close: 59.50 change: +0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: With the middle of November, attention is shifting
to the holiday season and BBY is poised to benefit nicely if
consumers continue to be in a spending mood.  The stock has been
holding very near its all-time highs for the past couple weeks
and looks poised for a breakout.  Use a trigger at $60 and look
for upside continuation to at least the $65 area.


JDA Software Group - JDAS - close: 20.22 change: -0.36

WHAT TO WATCH: Technical setups don't get much better for the
bears.  JDAS had a huge gap up following its earnings report and
then the stock stalled out near $22.  This week, the stock has
really tipped over and it probed below $20 and into the gap and
looks poised for a real breakdown.  Use a trigger of $19.80, just
below today's low and use a target of $17.50, at the bottom of
the gap.

On the RADAR Screen

MALL $11.95 - Ending right at critical resistance yesterday,
shares of MALL took to the skies today with another nearly 10%
advance.  Normally we'd ignore a stock after such a large move,
but this was such a strong break through major resistance that it
just might be worth a high risk play.  We wouldn't advocate
chasing it higher, but a pullback and rebound from $11.00-11.25
looks playable for upside continuation to the next major
resistance near $14.

SY $19.83 - Can you say breakout?  That's what SY delivered on
Tuesday, with a nearly 7% advance on huge volume.  We're not wild
about chasing it higher, but a pullback to confirm support at old
resistance near $19 looks like a great opportunity for entry.

MGAM $44.85 - In the mood for a chase?  MGAM has been on fire the
past 3 days and judging by the huge volume, it isn't likely to
slow down anytime soon.  This week's breakout has MGAM setting
new all-time highs and looks like a great momentum run in
progress.  Only very aggressive traders should consider chasing
it higher though.  The better approach would be to wait for a
pullback and rebound from the $42 area.

Market Sentiment

Markets Slump Again
- J. Brown

It was a slow day on Wall Street with the bond markets closed for
Veteran's Day but that didn't stop the current trend of profit
taking from etching another decline in both the Dow and the
NASDAQ averages.  The morning got started with some earnings from
several retailers.  Overall the news was positive and Merrill
Lynch upgraded half a dozen stocks to a "buy" up from "neutral".
It was enough to push the RLX retail index into the green but
this was one of the few sectors that managed to close positive.
Drugs, Gold and chips saw meager bounces while the rest of the
markets drifted lower.

There was heavy selling in both the biotech and airlines sectors
for back-to-back sessions.  "Heavy" being a relative term for the
airline index, which tends to move slowly, although it did close
under its simple 50-dma.  Meanwhile crude oil futures closed
above $31, which may explain some of the weakness in airlines.
Without any big economic news analysts and pundits turned to the
interest rate discussion again.  The argument takes various forms
from when the FOMC may have to raise rates again (from Q2 of 2004
to early 2005) to a healthy economy naturally producing higher
interest rates on its own via the bond market.  Whatever your
personal view it seems like idle chatter today as stocks
experience some overdue selling and potentially setting up for
the next leg higher.  Yet somehow I don't think the selling is
quite done yet.

In the meantime the rest of Wall Street is eyeing the string of
economic reports set to come out on Thursday and Friday of this
week.  As if we needed any more proof that the economy has
finally turned the corner and on its way back to recovering.
Friday is the big day with the PPI, Retail Sales, Production and
Utilization and Michigan Sentiment numbers.


Market Averages


52-week High:  9903
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9737

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 9804
 50-dma: 9624
200-dma: 8881

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1062
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1046

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1051
 50-dma: 1033
200-dma:  953

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1453
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1409

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1426
 50-dma: 1385
200-dma: 1203


The recent market weakness has pushed the volatility indices
higher but we're still near multi-year lows.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.54 -0.08
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 18.00 +0.05
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 26.55 +0.06


          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.96        537,257       514,414
Equity Only    0.73        447,950       326,768
OEX            0.64         24,273        15,499
QQQ            4.68         14,388        67,297


Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.4    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    71.0    - 4     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   83.3    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       80.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       80.0    + 0     Bull Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


 5-dma: 1.19
10-dma: 1.03
21-dma: 1.08
55-dma: 1.10

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning


Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1086      1073
Decliners    1713      1974

New Highs     195       237
New Lows       19        22

Up Volume    499M      546M
Down Vol.    871M     1053M

Total Vol.  1397M     1618M
M = millions


Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/04/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

It's been a long week since last we looked at the COT data
and we're still not seeing any big moves by the Commercial
traders.  The same holds true for small traders but they did
reduce some of their short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/14/03      391,972   410,299   (18,327)   (2.3%)
10/21/03      394,176   411,246   (17,070)   (2.1%)
10/28/03      391,596   412,498   (20,902)   (2.6%)
11/04/03      391,079   415,136   (24,057)   (3.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03      133,940    86,418    47,522    21.6%
10/21/03      136,643    88,290    48,343    21.5%
10/28/03      137,791    76,791    61,000    28.4%
11/04/03      137,829    78,206    59,623    27.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

E-MINI S&P 500

Hmm... we are seeing some movement in the e-minis.  Commercials
have upped their short positions by 24K contracts.  Small Traders
may have gotten the hint too.  Short interest is up but the real
change is the 45K drop in long contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/14/03      221,897   233,066    (11,169)  ( 2.5%)
10/21/03      226,985   236,906    ( 9,921)  ( 2.2%)
10/28/03      220,171   260,644    (40,473)  ( 8.4%)
11/04/03      242,409   270,785    (28,376)  ( 5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03      161,208    59,213   101,995    46.3%
10/21/03      168,236    56,564   111,672    49.7%
10/28/03      123,569    59,742    63,827    34.8%
11/04/03      135,525    63,006    72,519    36.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


This time it's the Small Traders making a move in the NDX
futures.  Long contracts are up nearly a third to more than
21K.  Commercials are still comatose but the trend is growing
slowly more bearish with a small bump in short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03       34,639     41,880   ( 7,241) ( 9.5%)
10/21/03       36,314     43,305   ( 6,991) ( 8.8%)
10/28/03       36,168     46,272   (10,104) (12.3%)
11/04/03       34,159     48,293   (14,134) (17.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03       16,822     9,046     7,776    30.1%
10/21/03       16,917     9,750     7,167    26.9%
10/28/03       21,640     8,830    12,810    42.0%
11/04/03       24,132     9,703    14,429    42.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02


There is very little change here for the Small Trader but
Commercial Traders have upped both their longs and their shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03       16,595     9,433    7,162      27.5%
10/21/03       16,876     9,037    7,839      30.3%
10/28/03       20,504    11,366    9,138      28.7%
11/04/03       21,756    11,903    9,853      29.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/14/03        6,427     8,495   (2,068)   (13.9%)
10/21/03        5,392     8,842   (3,450)   (23.1%)
10/28/03        5,295     8,864   (3,569)   (25.2%)
11/04/03        5,099     9,160   (4,061)   (28.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 11-11-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (C) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

Play of the Day:  One Last Chance

Stop Loss Adjustments:     FLML

Stock Split Announcements: MRTN

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

Play-of-the-Day  ( bearish )

Maxtor Corp. - MXO - close: 10.87 change: -0.44 stop: 12.98

Company Description:
Maxtor Corporation is a provider of hard disk drives for a variety
of applications, including desktop computers, Intel-based servers,
near-line storage systems and consumer electronics. The company's
desktop products are marketed under the Fireball, DiamondMax and
MaXLine brand names, and consist of 3.5-inch hard disk drives with
storage capacities ranging from 20 to 300 gigabytes per platter
and speeds of 5,400 RPM (revolutions per minute) and 7,200 RPM.
The company also provides a line of high-end 3.5-inch hard disk
drives for use in high-performance, storage-intensive applications
such as workstations, enterprise servers and storage subsystems.
These Intel-based server products are marketed under the Atlas
brand name and provide storage capacities of 18.4 to 146.9
gigabytes at speeds of 10,000 RPM and 15,000 RPM.

Why we like it:
Despite the mild losses in the overall market on Friday, shares of
MXO got clocked for a nearly 11% loss on volume that more than
doubled the ADV.  Interestingly, there was no company-specific or
sector news to explain the severe drop.  Nonetheless, the drop
created some serious problems for the bulls and has the bears
waking from hibernation.  The first sign of trouble was the drop
through the 50-dma ($12.97) and this is the first time the stock
has been below that measure since early May.  Next, MXO fell
through the 10/23 low ($12.40) and finally, the trade at $12
created a fresh PnF Sell signal (the first in a year), with a
tentative bearish price target of $9.  Looking at the daily chart,
the $9 level certainly does seem to be important, as it is the
site of strong support, which will be reinforced by the rising
200-dma (currently $8.57).

After such a large one-day drop, picking the right entry point is
a real challenge.  There's too much risk in chasing the stock
lower, especially with price closing below the lower Bollinger
band ($12.24).  So we're going to take a different approach and
use somewhat of a different trigger for the play.  We're looking
for a bounce early next week, similar to what was seen after the
plunge on 10/22.  Since this is the second big downdraft in just a
few weeks, we're expecting the bounce to be weaker this time
around.  With the understanding that if MXO just continues to
plunge, we'll miss out on the play, we're using a trigger on the
expected bounce.  When MXO bounces up to touch the 50-dma, there
ought to be plenty of supply appearing, so we'll use a $13.00
trigger on the play.  Aggressive traders can look to enter on a
trade at that level, while the more conservative approach will be
to wait for rejection from that price level.  There is likely to
be some support found first at $11.75, then $11 on the way to our
$10 target.  We might be pleasantly surprised by a continuation
down towards the 200-dma, but we'll happily settle for a 20% move
from Friday's closing price and a 30% move from our trigger.  Once
triggered, we'll use an initial stop of $14.25, which is safely
above both last week's highs and the 20-dma ($14.02).

Why This is our Play of the Day
There's only one thing better than having a play move sharply in
your favor and that is having the move take place AFTER you've
gotten an opportunity for a solid entry.  We got the first one
with our MXO play, catching sight of the stock after Friday's
sharp slide.  Unfortunately, we gambled on a dead-cat bounce to
provide entry and it never arrived.  Since then, MXO has shed
another 10.5% and is nearing initial support at $10.  We're going
to take one more shot at getting an entry on a failed rebound, but
we're still not interested in chasing the stock lower.  Look for a
bounce to stall out in the $12.00-12.25 area to trigger the play
to live status and we'll still target $10 to the downside.  If MXO
hits $10 before delivering the entry we're looking for, then we'll
sadly drop it as a missed opportunity.  Note that our stop has now
moved down to $12.98, just above the 50-dma.

Annotated Chart of MXO:

Picked on November 9th at $12.15
Change since picked        -1.28
Earnings Date            1/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  3.95 mln

Stop Loss Adjustments

FLML - short
Adjust from $27.50 down to $26.25

Stock Split Announcements


MRTN announces its second stock split of the year

Before today's opening bell, Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRTN)
announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 3-for-2 stock
split of its common shares.

The payable date for the stock split is set for December 5th, 2003
to shareholders on record November 21st.  After the stock split
MRTN will have approximately 13.7 million shares outstanding.
This would be MRTN's 2nd stock split this year, and third stock
split since being listed on the Nasdaq in 1986.

About the company:
Marten Transport, Ltd., with headquarters in Mondovi, Wis.,
strives to be the premier supplier of time- and temperature-
sensitive truckload motor carrier services to customers
nationwide. At the end of the third quarter, Marten operated a
fleet of 2,193 tractors and 2,800 trailers, all 53-foot trailers.
The company serves customers with more demanding delivery
deadlines or those who ship products requiring modern temperature-
controlled trailers to protect goods. The company's common stock
is traded on The Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol MRTN.
(Source: Company Press Release)

  Trading Ideas

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

XL      XL Capital Ltd             72.63     +2.06
DF      Dean Foods                 32.08     +0.73
NMGa    Neiman Marcus              51.65     +0.98
MALL    PC Mall Inc                11.95     +1.05

Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)

SY      Sybase Inc                 19.86     +1.33
SGMS    Scientific Games           14.90     +1.50
RSAS    RSA Security               14.13     +1.21
OO      Oakley Inc                 12.75     +1.83
TOO     Too Inc                    19.56     +1.26
CSTR    Coinstar Inc               17.22     +1.70

Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)

MAR     Marriott Intl Inc          46.41     +1.10
FD      Federated Dept Stores      50.11     +1.61
TIF     Tiffany & Co               48.78     +1.58
BJ      BJ's Wholesale             27.05     +1.15
ZLC     Zale Corp                  55.02     +1.77
MGAM    Multimedia Games           44.85     +1.87

Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)

DISH    Echostar Communications    32.05     -4.75
INFY    Infosys Technologies       82.36     -2.62
MYL     Mylan Labs                 21.85     -2.15
HAR     Harman Intl               119.00     -6.20
PDX     Pediatrix Medical          50.16     -3.52
CYD     China Yuchai Intl Ltd      26.73     -5.75
ERES    eResearch Tech             37.45     -1.75
USNA    Usuana Health Science      32.05     -6.35

Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

WLS     William Lyon Homes         61.37     -1.06
JBSS    John Sanfilippo & Son      36.17     -3.23
CRDN    Ceradyne Inc               39.81     -3.94

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