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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 11/12/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 11-12-2003
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:
--------------

Market Wrap:      Striking Distance

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
     11-12-2003            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9848.83 +111.04  9859.34  9729.42 1.66 bln   2182/ 644
NASDAQ   1973.11 + 42.36  1973.11  1935.86 1.84 bln   2330/ 784
S&P 100   524.19 +  5.53   524.76   518.56   Totals   4512/1428
S&P 500  1058.53 + 11.96  1059.10  1046.57
RUS 2000  540.66 + 12.09   540.66   528.57
DJ TRANS 2953.20 + 25.96  2953.95  2923.80
VIX        16.75 -  0.79    17.85    16.55
VXO        16.99 -  1.01    18.56    16.79
VXN        25.55 -  1.00    26.81    25.32
Total Volume 3,854M
Total UpVol  3,263M
Total DnVol    543M
52wk Highs     586
52wk Lows       26
TRIN          0.60
PUT/CALL      0.80
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Striking Distance
by James Brown

It appears that word of the rally's demise has been premature.
Buyers came back into the markets with a vengeance.  The S&P
completely erased the last three days of losses while the Dow and
the NASDAQ Composite came close to accomplishing the same feat.
Buying was strong in technology stocks as semiconductors,
hardware, Internets and software all posted strong gains.  Yet
even the fervor for tech issues couldn't out pace the rally in
gold.  December gold futures shot up nearly $7 to $395 an ounce.
The last time gold came close to the $400 mark was March 1996.

World indices were mostly positive but none of them put in the
same kind of performance that U.S. stocks produced.  The DJIA
gained 111 points (+1.14%) to close at 9848.  The S&P 500 added
12 points (+1.15%) to close at 1058 putting it within four points
of its 52-week high.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ added more than 2
percent to close at 1973 and within striking distance of NASDAQ
2000.  It was a very broad based rally with nearly every sector
index closing in the green, several up two percent or more,
except for the UTY utility index, which dropped fractionally.
Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners almost 22 to 6 on the NYSE
and 23 to 7 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume outpaced down volume 5-to-1
on the NYSE and 8.5-to-1 on the NASDAQ.  That's not quite the
bullish internals that Jim was looking for in his wrap last night
but they're close.

Chart of the DJIA:


Chart of the NASDAQ:



Wednesday was filled with a multitude of headlines.  Most of them
positive and they fueled the rally through out the session.  The
move in gold was a big one.  Oddly, the rally in gold isn't
necessarily a "plus" for stocks in general as it is typically
seen as a defensive play against bearish markets and a weak
dollar.  The $6.90 jump in December gold futures put it close to
the $400 mark and pushed the shiny metal to levels not seen in
seven years.  The dollar's strong drop against the euro powered
the move in gold and many are expecting it to break the $400 mark
soon.  Goldbugs have been "predicting" such an event would occur
for months and a close above the $400 level would be a huge
psychological breakout.  The hunger for the commodity pushed the
XAU gold & silver index up 5.57% to 101.86.  The XAU index hasn't
traded this high since October of 1997.


Bonds were also making headlines.  The bond market was closed for
Veteran's day yesterday and traders were interested to see how
the market reacted to Wednesday's $16 billion 5-year note auction
after Monday's 3-year auction turned out mediocre.  Fortunately,
there was strong demand for the new 5-year notes.  Some suspect
it was safe-haven buying as things heat up in Iraq again.  By the
end of the day bonds were higher across the board, which pushed
yields lower.  Tomorrow we'll see the government auction off
another $17 billion in 10-year notes.  After today's auction
demand is expected to be strong.


There were dozens of individual stories driving stocks higher and
as expected most of them sprang from the tech sector.
Semiconductor stocks got another shot in the arm after Gartner
Inc said their forecast predicted global chip sales to rise 20
percent next year.  The SOX semiconductor index rose 3.36% to its
best closing high in over a year as all 18 components closed with
a gain.  We may see the rally continue tomorrow.  After the bell
today Applied Materials (AMAT), the world's biggest chip
equipment maker, announced earnings that beat estimates by a
penny.  Net income may have dropped 90 percent from a year ago
but the company says it's turning a corner and orders for next
quarter should rise 20%.  New orders rose strongly last quarter
and the company's book-to-bill ratio hit 1.05-to-1 for the first
time in a year.  The stock was trading higher after hours.

Tech investors also heard good news from IBM's CEO Sam Palmisano.
In an analyst meeting today Sam said he was "very optimistic"
about the long-term growth for IT.  Shares of IBM rose 1.48% to
close back over the $90 level.  Another hardware stock making
headway was Lexmark Intl (LXK), the computer printer maker.  LXK
was upgraded from a "neutral" to a "buy".  The UBS analyst also
raised their price target for LXK from $80 to $88.  Shares surged
over 4 percent and broke resistance at $75.  Yet another bullish
development for technology investors was news that Cisco Systems
(CSCO) would buy Latitude Communications (LATD) for $80 million.
Companies tend to hold on to cash unless business conditions are
improving (not that $80 million is a lot of cash to CSCO).

One technology stock forgotten in all this enthusiasm is
Microsoft (MSFT).  Shares of MSFT, while closing 18 cents higher
today, have really under performed its peers in the GSO software
index as well as its fellow Dow components.  Some suspect the
recent weakness could be some of these troubled funds trying to
raise cash for redemptions and the easiest place to do that are
highly liquid stocks like MSFT.  The ongoing anti-trust suit that
MSFT continues to face with EU regulators is just a good excuse
take money out.

Another Dow component making headlines was drug giant Merck & Co
(MRK).  Shares of MRK were hit with new selling this morning
after the company disclosed it would cease research for its MK-
0869 compound, better known as "substance P", which was being
developed for depression.  MRK said Phase III trials had failed
to prove the treatment performed any better than the placebo.
Major Wall Street analysts were split on their opinion of how
this would affect MRK going forward.  Surprisingly, shares of MRK
were positive by the closing bell.


Traders have a lot to look forward tomorrow and Friday.  Thursday
will bring economic reports on import/export prices, trade
balance and the weekly initial jobless claims, which are expected
to come in near the 365,000 mark.  We'll also hear from the
largest retailer on the planet Wal-Mart (WMT), who reports
earnings before the opening bell.  Estimates for WMT are 47 cents
a share.  Thus far WMT's weekly sales figures have been tracking
inline.  WMT's rival Target (TGT) will also be announcing
earnings tomorrow morning.  Estimates for TGT are 33 cents a
share.  One of the higher profile earnings announcements tomorrow
will be Dell (DELL).  DELL announces after the closing bell on
Thursday and estimates are for 26 cents a share with revenues
close to $10.5 billion.  What DELL has to say about business
going forward could have a big impact on tech stocks for Friday.
Friday will bring the Michigan Sentiment numbers and the PPI
report.  One comment on the AMAT earnings tonight...normally,
with the chip group so overbought one can expect a sell the news
reaction but with the NASDAQ so close to 2000 it may be just the
excuse traders need to finally tag that psychological level.


=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

WFC     Wells Fargo & Co New       56.73    +0.80
GSK     Glaxosmithkline Plc (ADR)  45.18    +1.22
XL      XL Capital Ltd             74.57    +2.09
KMI     Kinder Morgan Inc          52.92    +0.79
HET     Harrah's Entertainment     47.49    +1.69


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

PDG     Placer Dome Inc            16.79    +1.06
AMD     Advanced Micro Devices     18.08    +1.46
STLD    Steel Dynamics Inc         19.78    +1.03


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

NTT     Nippon Tel & Tel (ADS)     23.60    +2.25
DCM     NTT De Co Mo (ADR)         22.75    +1.52
SI      Siemens Aktien             70.82    +1.01
NEM     Newmont Mining Corp        43.96    +1.70
LXK     Lexmark Intl               76.10    +3.12
CSC     Computer Sciences Corp     44.19    +3.40
COH     Coach Inc                  37.89    +1.47


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

WFMI    Whole Food Markets Inc     58.73    -1.26
ENR     Energizer Holdings         36.51    -1.09
NTLI    NTL Inc                    57.27    -2.78


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NJ      Nidec Corp (ADR)          100.45    -0.45
NFX     Newfield Exploration       40.55    -0.19
VVC     Vectren Corporation        23.35    -0.28
NVGN    Novogen Ltd (ADS)          23.71    -2.37



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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 11-12-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bullish Plays:     CTSH
  Bearish Play Updates:  FLML

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     RSH
  New Bearish Plays:     PVN
  Bullish Play Updates:  IR
  Bearish Play Updates:  BG, STT, T

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     STLD
  Bullish Play Updates:  AU, GNTX, RAD
  Bearish Play Updates:  MXO


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 46.86 change: +2.37 stop: 42.75

Company Description:
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation delivers full
lifecycle  solutions to complex software development and
maintenance problems that companies face as they transition to e-
business.  These information technology (IT) services are
delivered through the use of a seamless on-site and offshore
consulting project team.  The company's solutions include
application development and integration, application management
and re-engineering services.  Among CTSH's prominent clients are
ACNielsen Corporation, ADP, Inc., Brinker Int'l, Computer
Sciences, The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, First Data
Corporation and Nielsen Media Research.

Why we like it:
One look at the weekly chart of CTSH is likely to cause all but
the most unabashed bull to get vertigo.  The stock is up more
than 100% from its April lows in nearly a straight line.
Steadily working higher in an ascending channel for the past 6
months, the stock has consistently found support at the bottom of
that channel ($42.90) and/or the 30-dma ($43.18).  The dip in
late October barely dipped below the 20-dma (then at $40.80)
before finding support and tearing up the chart to tag a new high
just shy of $48.  Well, don't look now, but CTSH looks like it is
ready to give the upside another run.  Yesterday's dip to the 20-
dma (now at $44.09) was enthusiastically bought today, with the
stock surging higher by more than 5%, with the stock closing just
below its low of the day.  More importantly, today's close puts
CTSH just below it's all time high of $47.70, and it looks like a
real breakout is brewing.

Normally, in this sort of situation, we'd use a breakout trigger
to enter the play, but with the strength of the ascending
channel, we're going to pass on the trigger and look for entry on
either a pullback or a breakout from here.  Momentum traders that
are comfortable waiting for a breakout before entry will want to
use a $47.75 trigger.  Those looking for a pullback entry will
want to focus on the $44.50 area, as that should now be strong
support, backed up by the rising 20-dma.  Regardless of entry
strategy, we'll be using a stop just below the lower edge of the
rising channel at $42.75.  Based on the steady ascent, this could
be a longer-term play.  Our initial target will be $50, but we're
really looking for upside continuation into the $52-53 area.


Annotated Chart of CTSH:


Picked on November 12th at $46.86
Change since picked         +0.00
Earnings Date             1/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   1.03 mln





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Flamel Tech. S.A. - FLML - cls: 24.73 chng: +1.50 stp: 26.25

Well, that's frustrating, don't you think?  FLML was chugging
along in a cooperative manner, moving well into its August gap by
yesterday afternoon.  The bulls counter-attacked today though,
with FLML vaulting higher to the tune of 6.45% on stronger
volume.  This defines the $23 level as stronger support than
initially expected, but the jury is still out as to whether this
is a reversal or a one-day bounce.  Despite the rebound, we are
encouraged by the fact that the stock once again was rejected at
the 10-dma ($25.11).  This could be the setup for another bearish
entry point near resistance based on the nascent rollover at the
close.  Look for more price weakness in the morning before
initiating a new position though.  If FLML pushes back above the
10-dma though, odds are good that we're seeing a reversal and
will likely be forced to exit the play.  Maintain stops at $26.25
as the $26 level has been solid resistance for over a week now.

Picked on November 2nd at $25.25
Change since picked        -0.52
Earnings Date            1/29/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.61 mln






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


RadioShack - RSH - close: 32.15  change: +0.66  stop: 30.30

Company Description:
Fort Worth-based RadioShack Corporation is the nation's most
trusted consumer electronics specialty retailer of wireless
communications, electronic parts, batteries and accessories as
well as other digital technology products and services.  With
more than 7,000 outlets nationwide, it is estimated that 94
percent of all Americans live or work within five minutes of a
RadioShack store or dealer.  The company's knowledgeable sales
associates and brand position -- "You've Got Questions.  We've
Got Answers.(R)" -- support RadioShack's mission to demystify
technology in every neighborhood in America. For more information
on the company, visit the RadioShack Corporation Web site at
www.radioshackcorporation.com.

Why We Like It:
Monday, Prudential reiterated its overweight rating of RSH,
mentioning a $34.00 target, but we have another target in mind:
a P&F target.  Last week, RSH completed an ascending triple top
breakout buy signal, with a current upside target of $41.00.  We
want to capture a portion of that climb, setting our target at
$36.00.

RSH also announced a contract with ATC Logistics and Electronics,
with that contract expected to add 300 new RadioShack jobs.  With
retailers expecting a strong holiday season, the RLX climbed
Wednesday, and RSH participated.  After breaking above its early
September high, it's been consolidating just above the breakout
level. MACD turns up strongly, and RSH looks ready to break out.
Trigger the play on a breakout above this week's $32.25 high.

Annotated Chart for RSH:


Picked on Nov 12 at  32.15
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    10/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.2 million




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 10.88 chng: -0.12 stop: 11.55

Company Description:
As one of the top ten US credit card companies, PVN issues mainly
secured credit cards to more than 12 million customers, many of
whom have spotty credit histories.  The company also offers
standard and premium crecit cards to those with better credit.
In addition to credit card products, the company also offers a
suite of loan products and membership services.  Soliciting new
customers via direct mail, phone calls, and online advertising,
PVN has more than $27 billion in assets under management and over
14 million customers.

Why we like it:
Financial stocks may have been performing well throughout the
broad market rally, but PVN stumbled badly after being downgraded
to Neutral by UBS the day after their earnings report.  That sent
the stock plunging from $13 to just below $11 before a mild
bounce commenced.  That bounce failed at the $11.50 level and has
been rolling over in the past few days.  Based on today's
fractional break of the 10/30 low, it looks like the
consolidation pattern of the past 2 weeks is going to resolve
itself to the downside.  When it does, we'll have a nice little
flag pattern working in our favor.  Frequently, midway through a
large move, a stock will build a sideways consolidation pattern
and then when it breaks in the direction of continuation, we can
calculate an end target based on the pattern.  The distance
traveled after the break should be roughly equal to the distance
traveled leading into the consolidation.  The initial move in the
case of PVN was roughly $2, from $13 down to $11.  If the stock
breaks to the downside, then we should see continuation  down to
roughly the $9 level.

We're going to use a trigger for PVN at $10.80, which is just
below today's intraday low.  Entries taken on the initial break
look good for momentum players, while more timid traders might
get fortunate enough to see a subsequent failed rebound from the
$11.00-11.25 area.  While we're targeting a drop to the $9 area
(very near the 200-dma), we would be remiss if we didn't point
out the reality that there is some mild support near $10.50 and
significant support closer to $10.  By the time that $10 support
is reached, we should have enough cushion in the play to allow us
to hold on for lower levels ahead.  Risk-reward is favorable as
well, with a nice tight stop at $11.55, which is just above the
high of the consolidation pattern of the past couple weeks.

Annotated Chart of PVN:


Picked on November 12th at $10.88
Change since picked         +0.00
Earnings Date             1/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   2.79 mln





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 60.39 change: +1.76 stop: 58.30

The price action in IR was certainly not encouraging early this
week, with the stock falling precipitously on Monday and losing a
bit more ground yesterday, trading within 10 cents of our $58.30
stop.  But the bulls defended support at the 30-dma ($58.55)
today and sent the stock higher by a full 3%, once again closing
over $60.  Today's rebound certainly looks convincing, especially
with the close near the day's high and daily Stochastics trying
to reverse back into a bullish climb.  The best entries into the
play have been coming on the pullbacks and today's rebound may
have been the best shot we're likely to get.  Momentum entries
can still be taken on a breakout over $61.80, which would have IR
back in the top of its rising channel.  That breakout would have
us looking at IR finally having a real shot at rallying towards
the top of its channel, now at $65.25.  If entering new positions
on a breakout, look for increasing volume to confirm bullish
conviction.

Picked on October 29th at $60.68
Change since picked        -0.29
Earnings Date            1/21/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.20 mln






  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Bunge Limited - BG - close: 26.00 change: -0.12 stop: 27.55

After an encouraging start to the play, BG has been trying our
patience over the past week, rebounding from just above $26 and
coming close to hitting our stop yesterday.  Wednesday's action
delivered a tight consolidation candle, and with daily
Stochastics (5,3,3) looking weak near overbought territory, this
could prove to be the rebound entry patient traders have been
waiting for.  The 20-dma ($27.30) and the 30-dma ($27.49) should
now act as resistance and as long as BG rolls over below $27.50,
the rollover can be used as a fresh entry.  More conservative
traders may want to wait for a break below $26.60 before entering
though, as that would show some bearish conviction with the break
below this week's intraday lows.  We're still targeting a drop
into the $24.00-24.50 area, but we'll definitely need to see
heavier selling volume to make that happen.  Maintain stops at
$27.55.

Picked on November 2nd at $27.10
Change since picked        -0.36
Earnings Date            1/29/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     500 K





---

State Street Corp. - STT - cls: 50.35 chng: -0.07 stp: 51.75*new*

To say that our STT play has been a disappointment so far would
be an understatement, as the stock has been chopping along in a
tight range between $49.75-51.65 for over a week now.  Our
trigger at $49.35 has still not been reached, so we remain
comfortably on the sidelines, waiting for STT to prove its
intentions.  There is a definite pattern of lower highs over the
past several sessions, but that could be either a pattern of
weakness or we could be witnessing a bullish descending triangle
forming on the chart.  The action plan remains the same.  We need
to wait for the trigger to be hit, and then momentum entries
below that level can be considered.  More cautious traders can
look for a failed bounce after that trigger is hit, with a likely
entry in the $50-51 area.  With last Friday's intraday high of
$51.65, we can lower our stop to $51.75 and improve the potential
risk-reward ratio, with our downside target remaining at $44-45.

Picked on November 5th at $50.74
Change since picked        -0.39
Earnings Date            1/13/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.65 mln




---

AT&T - T - close: 19.37  change: +0.30  stop: 20.05

Tuesday, Lehman initialized T at an overweight rating with a
$24.00 price target, but the day's candle was a doji printed just
above the 200-dma.  That candle indicated uncertainty about
moving the stock higher.  The Lehman rating countered the JP
Morgan underweight rating last week.  Wednesday, matters changed.
T announced a $7.5 million networking contract it received from
the Skanska USA Building, with Skanska being a commercial
construction and project development company.  The contract will
run over three years.  Investors reacted by sending T higher, but
we wonder if the gains were specific to T or if T was riding on
the coattails of other telecommunications stocks.  NTT's strong
performance in Japan after its earnings release probably helped
all telecommunications stocks.  The North American Telecoms Index
$XTC also gained today.

The pop back above the 200-dma and the rising daily oscillators
look worrisome.  We do note that volume did not pick up as T
rose, so that volume did not confirm the gains.  On Wednesday, T
found resistance at its 21-dma as well as from the late October
gap.  We also notice that the current climb could be another bear
flag rising into resistance.  If so, we hope to see it turn down
below $20.00 and our stop.  Those considering new entries should
probably wait until a rollover beneath the 200-dma again.

Annotated Chart for T:


Picked on Oct 29 at  19.07
Change since picked: +0.30
Earnings Date:    10/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  7.0 million






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 19.78 change: +1.03 stop: 17.99

Company Description:
Steel Dynamics, Inc. [provides] a broad range of flat-rolled
products to the market, including light gauge micro-alloyed and
high strength steels for demanding automotive applications.
(Source:  Company Press Release.)

Why We Like It:
Late last week, the World Steel Dynamics said it expected a
world-wide shortage of steel in Q1 of the next year.  Across the
globe, shares of steel manufacturers have risen.  U.S. steel
manufacturers have been in the news, too, as countries demanded
that Bush remove the steel tariffs he enacted to protect U.S.
steel manufacturers.

Wednesday, STLD broke above weekly resistance that had held since
mid-1999, and it did so on volume that was more than double
average daily volume.  As if that weren't enough to pique our
interest, we notice that STLD produced a double-top breakout
signal back in March with an upside target of $57.00.  While we
have no intentions of hanging around through the twists and turns
that might eventually bring STLD up to $57.00, we wouldn't mind
hanging on for an upside target of $25.00.

Because STLD has not yet had a reversal from the X column that
formed that P&F target, the target might go higher.  It's also
possible that STLD will pull back at some point into that first
three-box reversal, so we're placing this entry in the high-risk,
high-reward category.

MACD bearish divergences have abounded in stocks and indices as
they've added to recent gains, but not in STLD.  MACD has
followed prices higher, not signaling divergence.  RSI and 5(3)3
stochastics already trend at levels indicating overbought
conditions, as would be expected in a strongly trending stock.

We have a quandary about the entry for this stock.  While $20.00
is clearly important round-number resistance, Wednesday's strong
volume confirms the importance of the breakout over that long-
term weekly resistance.  While we're reluctant to enter just
ahead of $20.00, we think pullbacks and bounces from above $19.00
would make ideal entries.  Such entries might not be offered,
however, and in that case, strong-volume moves above $20.00 would
make appropriate momentum entries.  We're setting a stop at
$17.99, just below the rising 21-dma.

Annotated Chart for STLD:


Picked on Nov 12 at  19.78
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    10/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  359 thousand






============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


AngloGold - AU - close: 43.43 change: +2.63  stop: 39.25*new*

With the CBOE Gold Index $GOX gaining more than 6 percent on
Wednesday, AU did not want to be left behind and tacked on a 6.45
percent gain.  Climbing on volume that was about 50 percent
higher than normal, AU climbed within $1.60 of our $45.00 target.
MACD looks strong.  While stochastics have moved into territory
indicating overbought conditions, they can remain pinned at that
level while a stock trends.  In that condition, stochastics
downturns may not signal selling opportunities but rather
imminent consolidation.

It looks as if AU should probably consolidate the recent gains,
but we're not sure if that's going to happen. We've raised our
official stop to $39.25, just below the apex of the triangle from
which AU broke, triggering our long play.  More conservative
traders might want to set their stops higher, perhaps just below
$40.00 or even just below Tuesday's $40.41 high.  We would not
suggest momentum entries at this point, but pullbacks and bounces
from above $41.50 might be appropriate entries for new plays.
Confirm strength in the $GOX first.

Annotated Chart for AU:


Picked on Nov 7 at   41.10
Change since picked: +2.33
Earnings Date:    10/31/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.0 million



-----


Gentex Corp - GNTX - close: 41.99 change: +1.80 stop: 39.15*new*

Automakers performed strongly Wednesday, and this long play
benefited from their strength.  GNTX added 4.48 percent, climbing
on almost double the average daily volume.

The pullback earlier in the week established support at $40.00.
MACD turns up strongly, and GNTX looks ready to climb.  Further
pullbacks and bounces from the $40.00-41.00 level would provide
new entries on this well-performing bullish play.  Our target
remains $45.00, and we're raising our stop to $39.15, just below
the rising 21-pma.  Conservative traders might set a higher stop,
perhaps below Tuesday's pullback low.

Annotated Chart for GNTX:


Picked on Oct 29 at  39.69
Change since picked: +2.30
Earnings Date:    10/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  520 thousand



----


Rite Aid - RAD - close: 6.21  change: +0.14  stop: 5.75

RAD pulled back Monday, but by Wednesday, it was climbing again.
With the Retail Index RLX moving up to challenge $390.00
resistance, RAD added to the gains made Tuesday when it bounced
from its 10-dma.

That pullback provided for new entries, but we wish volume were
picking up with the climb. We think investors might be waiting
for another move over recent highs, so look for an explosion of
volume to confirm breakout entries.  As we mentioned last week,
P&F resistance lies at $6.50, so some might prefer to wait for a
break over $6.50 for momentum entries.

Annotated Chart for RAD:


Picked on Nov 05 at   5.95
Change since picked: +0.26
Earnings Date:    09/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.5 million




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Maxtor Corp. - MXO - close: 11.90 change: +1.03 stop: 12.98

MXO has certainly gone out of its way to not deliver an
actionable entry point into the play so far, with last week's
decline continuing down to south of $11 by yesterday's close.
The rebound we were waiting for finally arrived today with the
stock vaulting higher by nearly 9.5%, and that rebound came on
volume 50% over the ADV and very close to the levels seen on the
decline of the past few days.  MXO's rebound halted just below
the critical $12 level today and this could either be the entry
point we want or the beginning of a reversal move.  If the stock
powers higher again tomorrow and moves through the $12.50 level,
then we'll want to stand aside.  However, a rollover from the
$12.00-12.25 area looks viable for an aggressive downside entry,
with an eye towards a drop down to the $10 support level.
Remember, we don't just want to see into strength on the rebound,
despite the fresh PnF Sell signal.  Wait for the rollover before
playing and maintain stops at $12.98, just over the 50-dma.

Picked on November 9th at $12.15
Change since picked        -0.25
Earnings Date            1/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  3.94 mln











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