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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 11/13/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 11-13-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Easy as Dell, Oops!
Watch List:       MEDI, TRMS, TXU, ESRX and more!
Market Sentiment: Holding Gains

MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
      11-13-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9837.94 - 10.90  9852.90  9792.01 1.63 bln   1725/1388
NASDAQ   1967.35 -  5.80  1970.40  1956.41 1.80 bln   1515/1571
S&P 100   522.99 -  1.20   524.19   520.86   Totals   3240/2959
S&P 500  1058.41 -  0.12  1059.62  1052.96
W5000   10329.90 +  2.90 10341.08 10281.26
RUS 2000  541.20 +  0.54   542.39   537.81
DJ TRANS 2948.45 -  4.80  2954.12  2935.58
VIX        16.45 -  0.30    17.13    16.45
VXO VIX-O  16.84 -  0.15    17.67    16.62
VXN        25.42 -  0.13    26.01    25.24
Total Volume 3,700M
Total UpVol  1,701M
Total DnVol  1,952M
52wk Highs  649
52wk Lows    20
TRIN       1.26
NAZTRIN    1.27
PUT/CALL   0.76

Market Wrap

Easy as Dell, Oops!

At 3:20 the markets were rallying in advance of Dell's earnings
due out after the close and everyone was setting up their end
of day strategy. Suddenly the news was accidentally released
and the market went crazy. Stops were run to the upside and
the downside as everyone scrambled to enter/exit/protect trades.
After about 10 min the news was completely disseminated and the
urgency was over. That bout of volatility was the highlight of
the day.

Dow Chart

Nasdaq Chart

The morning started with some bullishness after the Jobless
Claims posted another week well away from the 400K level. The
claims for this week were only 366,000 and the claims from
last week were only revised up the normal 5000 to 353,000. It
appears the big drop from last week is going to stick and the
pace of layoffs is slowing. Continuing claims rose slightly
but the trend is still down. This is a major change in the
employment picture but we still need to see a consistent drop
below 350,000 to indicate a stabilizing labor market.

Import prices rose only +0.1% and less than expected. Export
prices rose +0.3% due to higher agricultural prices. Beef and
grains are soaring on the world market due to Canada's mad
cow problem and droughts in crop belts around the world. The
International Trade numbers showed a greater than expected
deficit of -$41.3 billion. Were it not for a large jump in
exports the numbers would have been much worse. We imported
$127 billion and exported $86 billion. Each was an increase
of about +3.7%. This would indicate the global economy is
improving although slowly.

A more negative tone was set by the Mortgage Application
Survey for last week, which at 626.0 was at a 52-week low.
Purchase applications fell -7.1% and refi applications fell
-10.1%. This was a substantial drop and shows what we have
been afraid of for months. The initial rise in rates caused
a flurry of activity in October as those laggards who had
been putting off taking the plunge were pushed into action.
Now that activity is waning as the rates appear to be ready
to start that long climb. Two Fed heads, Moskow and Poole,
said today that they do not see any rate hike soon but the
perception by the consumer is higher rates ahead.

The biggest negative for the morning was an earnings miss
by Dow component Wal-Mart. The king of the category killers
said increased competition, apparel write downs and too big
a focus on sale items cut their margins and lowered profits.
Considering the term competition is normally used against
WMT with the adjective unfair in front of it the turn about
is amazing. Also, WMT said that customers were focusing on
the sale items and not the broader range of merchandise.
This confirms the adage that you can sell anything if you
lower the price enough. Unfortunately you cannot make a
fat profit on the transaction.

Not only did the normally bulletproof WMT miss earnings but
they said consumers were remaining cautious. This was the
major hiccup. If WMT consumers, the most price conscious
shoppers in the worlds most competitive store, are holding
back on purchases because they are cautious then the entire
consumer driven recovery is in question. If these consumers
are hoarding cash then this is the broadest indicator of
sentiment available. WMT also said inventory levels were
higher than normal but manageable. This was another negative
to analysts. If WMT thinks inventory levels are too high
going into the holiday shopping season then the outlook for
that season may be too high. WMT lost -2.44 (-4.2%) on the
news and wiped out all the economic bullishness before the

Traders were unable to recover from the initial weakness
until late in the afternoon. The Nasdaq failed to capitalize
on the AMAT earnings after the close on Wednesday. They beat
the street by a penny and said order growth for the 4Q was
up +20%. AMAT dropped -70 cents and the SOX lost -5.32. The
culprit was the -16% drop in sales, a falling gross margin
and insider selling. While AMAT was pounding the drum on
the future traders were looking at the past and what could
be seen by some as an expensive stock price. In reality it
was just a sell the news event once again. The SOX had just
hit 531 and very near a new 52-week high and had plenty of
expectations already priced in. We also saw on Wednesday
that the Gartner Group had predicted +20% chip growth in
2004 and $210 billion in revenue for the chip sector. With
this bullish data pushing the chip sector up the negatives
in the AMAT report produced some disappointment.

This same scenario could be seen today when Dell announced
earnings that were inline with estimates. Sales in all
sectors were up strongly with their printer business up
+80%, servers +30% and so on. The stock fell in after hours
after Dell said that although revenue would be up +25% in
the 4Q earnings would not rise as much. The CFO continued
to say that sales to consumers were good but that business
spending had only stabilized. This has been the complaint
from every major tech stock that business buying has not
increase materially but has only ceased dropping and has
stabilized. Nasdaq futures were down -5.50 in after hours
after the Dell conference call.

Tomorrow we have a Greenspan speech in Washington and all
eyes will be glued to his every word. Today we heard from
Poole that he saw rates remaining at the current level
beyond March. This was an effort to head off the rising
bet that the Fed would hike at the March meeting if not
before, well before. Moskow also chimed in with a "Fed
can remain accommodative" for some time comment. Of course
it was quickly pointed out that the Fed could see itself
as accommodative even after several rate hikes. The current
rate is several points below the historical average. There
was no shortage of buyers for the $16 billion in 5-yr notes
on Wednesday and the $17 billion in 10-yr notes today. There
was also significant buying in bonds and the 10-yr note
yield fell -1.41 or -3.19% to 42.71 today.

92% of the S&P companies have announced earnings for the
3Q and the results are very strong with earnings growth
at +20.7% from the 3Q-2002. This was the second strongest
quarter in recent memory with Q2-2000 the strongest at
+21.6% growth. The 4Q earnings are also expected to be strong
but Chuck Hill at First Call said the comparisons stop there.
The growth for Q1-2004 is up for grabs considering the much
stronger 2003 comparisons. The Q3 growth was funded by the
tax cuts, mortgage refi boom and the low interest rates.
Q1 will see another boost from the tax checks but the
other two factors have slipped into the historical mode.

The mutual fund scandal saw its first settlement today with
Putman settling with the SEC and agreeing to make some major
changes in the way it does business and by paying some yet
to be determined penalty. MMC, the parent of Putman, saw a
sharp spike in price on the news. Unfortunately it was short
lived because the biggest threat is the state probes headed
by NY AG Spitzer. He is still on the attack and issuing new
probes into still more funds and is planning on criminal

GE, INTC and MSFT saw further weakness today and it appeared
the funds were still liquidating positions. IBM was the only
major big cap tech to keep its gains from yesterday when IBM
and GE helped push the indexes higher by making bullish
comments at the IBM conference. GE traded 25 million shares,
which is about 25% more than the average daily volume. The
volume in the market was not heavy with only 3.7 billion
across all markets.

Despite the lighter than average volume and the decline in
the averages the internals were still strong. New 52-week
highs were 696 compared to 590 on Wednesday when the indexes
were strongly bullish. Advancing/declining volume was even.
The Dow held on to the majority of its gains from Wednesday
and is poised to move higher. It held above support at 9800
and showed very little profit taking. Considering the strong
gains on Wednesday this was a win for the bulls. If you took
out the WMT loss the Dow would have finished in positive
territory around 9850. Tomorrow the bullish trend could
easily return. The Nasdaq tried three times to rally back
to positive territory and finished only 34 points from N2K.
It may have been a negative day for the indexes but it was
a positive day for the markets. I told you on Tuesday to
watch the internals for the real trend and we saw 5:1
advancing to declining volume on Wednesday. Very strong.
Continue to watch the internals to see if any weakness on
Friday is just a dip, like today, or the real thing.

Friday we have several important economic events. We have
the PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Michigan
Sentiment. Considering how positive the economics for the
last couple weeks have been the bar may be very high for
these reports. The consensus estimates are for little gain
in the surveys but the whisper numbers could be much higher.
Unless there is a real disaster I predict they will be
ignored and the bulls will continue to buy the dips.

That is the current trend. Buy the dips not buy the tops.
Each time we near the prior highs the bids evaporate and
we go back down again. Despite the strong internals the
market still feels heavy. This is giving the bears hope
and helping to push it higher every time they are forced
to cover their shorts. One thing I noticed today was a
rotation into drug stocks. This could be a leading indicator
of some tech weakness ahead. Drugs have literally been
killed over the last year while techs have been climbing.
When institutional investors decide techs are overblown
they tend to rotate into drug stocks for safety until the
techs correct. This was the second day that drugs have
rallied and PFE, MRK, LLY, etc all rallied strongly. PFE
jumped +1.05 on 2.5 times its normal volume. PFE was helped
by some news that Lipitor slowed the buildup of plaque in
arteries. This is the kind of news that is typically used
as an excuse for the rotation but a quick look at a few
drug company charts shows the uptick started several days
ago. Watch the drugs for strength, the techs for weakness
and the internals for direction.

There was also a warning that was picked up by only a few
news outlets after the close. According to the reports
someone named Al-Hijazi and claiming to be a commander
close to Osama is warning that a huge attack against the
U.S. is going to kill as many as 100,000 and will be
launched during Ramadan. A different report said the attack
would be before the Solar eclipse on November 23rd. While
I seriously doubt this will come to pass it may create a
cloud over any Friday gains. Investors may not want to be
long over the weekend.

As long as the Dow continues to hover just below 9900 we
are always in striking distance of Dow 10,000 and the
unofficial target for some profit taking. Nasdaq 2000 is
also close and could easily be touched first. One of the
reasons we may be having trouble moving higher is the
nearness to those levels. If the entire professional
trading community is planning on selling there then we
could be seeing front running of those levels. The bulls
are buying the dips but not the tops and that leaves us
stuck in the range until the deadlock is broken. If you
need proof that the sentiment is still off the scale
bullish you need only look at the VXO which closed at
16.84 and another five year low today.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.


Medimmune Inc. - MEDI - close: 26.53 change: +1.53

WHAT TO WATCH: It definitely takes an optimist to see a bullish
tinge to MEDI's chart, as the stock has been steadily headed
south for the past 2 months now.  But with price now rebounding
from strong support near $25 and on strong volume today, this
could be the beginning of a bullish reversal.  This one isn't for
the timid, but could provide a nice ride up to the vicinity of
$31-32 if there's some life to this nascent rebound.


Trimeris, Inc. - TRMS - close: 23.93 change: -0.99

WHAT TO WATCH: The excitement over new drug candidates seems to
have faded of late, as TRMS has broken below one support level
after another.  Thursday's session was particularly gloomy, with
the stock shedding nearly 4% on above average volume and barely
clinging to support near $23.  The breakdown seems imminent and
using a trigger below $23 should yield a solid entry with room to
run to the downside.  Next solid support appears near $18, near
the 1999 lows.


TXU Corp. - TXU - close: 22.00 change: -0.38

WHAT TO WATCH: Utility stocks have been pulling back a bit over
the past couple weeks, so we can cut TXU some slack.  But the
daily chart looks an awful lot like a pending breakdown.  Entries
on a break below Thursday's low should have room to fall down to
solid support at $20.


Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 60.70 change: +2.53

WHAT TO WATCH: ESRX has been mired in a persistent downtrend for
more than 3 months now, but that pattern broke with emphasis on
Thursday.  The stock broke above the top of the descending
channel, gaining more than 4% enroute to ending the day just
above the 200-dma.  A continued upswing above Thursday's high
looks good for new entries, targeting $65 on the upside.

On the RADAR Screen

MRX $67.78 - Shares of MRX have really been on a tear since late
October and today the stock broke out to new multi-year
highs...again.  But this isn't the time to look for an entry, as
the stock is right up against the top of its rising channel.
Look for a pullback to confirm support in the $65 area before
considering bullish entry.

BRL $79.00 - Can you say breakout?  BRL is right on the cusp of
delivering another ini what has been a series of breakout moves
in recent months.  Despite being in the upper half of its rising
channel, a breakout over $79.40 will have the stock at new all-
time highs and could be used for new momentum entries.  More
cautious traders will want to watch for a pullback entry near the
midline of the rising channel.

ICN $22.58 - What goes up, must come down.  Shares of ICN surged
higher last Thursday on news of the company initiating Phase III
trials on its anti-viral compound Viramidine.  But the excitement
seems to have worn off and the stock fell back inside its gap
today.  This could make for a quick and aggressive bearish play
enroute to filling the gap back near the $19 level.

Market Sentiment

Holding Gains
- J. Brown

The major averages may have closed in the red today but losses
were mild and after yesterday's big rally investors shouldn't
complain.  Considering that Wal-Mart, the biggest retailer on the
planet (and Dow component), missed earnings by a penny bulls
should count themselves lucky that the DJIA only dropped 10
points.  The market's strength today really was the big story.
WMT said that shoppers continued to be cautious which is not what
investors or Wall Street wants to hear.  For the last few weeks
we've heard nothing but how strong this coming holiday shopping
season was likely to be.  Now WMT is casting a big shadow over
those expectations.

This morning's economic reports and initial jobless claims were a
non-event.  Jobless claims came in low as expected and marked
another week under the pivotal 400,000 level.  Tomorrow could be
a big day with the PPI, retail sales (likely to be anti-
climatic), industrial production and utilization numbers and the
Michigan Sentiment report.


Market Averages


52-week High:  9903
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9837

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 9816
 50-dma: 9634
200-dma: 8899

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1062
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1058

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1053
 50-dma: 1034
200-dma:  955

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1453
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1439

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1430
 50-dma: 1388
200-dma: 1207


Wow! We have a new closing low for VXO (old VIX) at 16.84.
The VIX hasn't been this low in years.  Of course
there is nothing to stop it from dropping lower and that
may be the case as the markets hover near one-year highs.
This remains a growing storm cloud for the bulls.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.47 -0.28
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.84 -0.15
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 25.45 -0.10


          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.78        721,852       560,283
Equity Only    0.63        609,893       383,694
OEX            0.73         25,410        18,445
QQQ            1.34         28,087        37,747


Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.4    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    71.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   83.3    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       80.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       81.0    + 1     Bull Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


 5-dma: 1.07
10-dma: 1.09
21-dma: 1.10
55-dma: 1.10

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning


Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1590      1516
Decliners    1227      1539

New Highs     278       268
New Lows       14        15

Up Volume    827M      850M
Down Vol.    813M      976M

Total Vol.  1662M     1840M
M = millions


Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/04/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

It's been a long week since last we looked at the COT data
and we're still not seeing any big moves by the Commercial
traders.  The same holds true for small traders but they did
reduce some of their short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/14/03      391,972   410,299   (18,327)   (2.3%)
10/21/03      394,176   411,246   (17,070)   (2.1%)
10/28/03      391,596   412,498   (20,902)   (2.6%)
11/04/03      391,079   415,136   (24,057)   (3.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03      133,940    86,418    47,522    21.6%
10/21/03      136,643    88,290    48,343    21.5%
10/28/03      137,791    76,791    61,000    28.4%
11/04/03      137,829    78,206    59,623    27.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

E-MINI S&P 500

Hmm... we are seeing some movement in the e-minis.  Commercials
have upped their short positions by 24K contracts.  Small Traders
may have gotten the hint too.  Short interest is up but the real
change is the 45K drop in long contracts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/14/03      221,897   233,066    (11,169)  ( 2.5%)
10/21/03      226,985   236,906    ( 9,921)  ( 2.2%)
10/28/03      220,171   260,644    (40,473)  ( 8.4%)
11/04/03      242,409   270,785    (28,376)  ( 5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03      161,208    59,213   101,995    46.3%
10/21/03      168,236    56,564   111,672    49.7%
10/28/03      123,569    59,742    63,827    34.8%
11/04/03      135,525    63,006    72,519    36.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


This time it's the Small Traders making a move in the NDX
futures.  Long contracts are up nearly a third to more than
21K.  Commercials are still comatose but the trend is growing
slowly more bearish with a small bump in short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03       34,639     41,880   ( 7,241) ( 9.5%)
10/21/03       36,314     43,305   ( 6,991) ( 8.8%)
10/28/03       36,168     46,272   (10,104) (12.3%)
11/04/03       34,159     48,293   (14,134) (17.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03       16,822     9,046     7,776    30.1%
10/21/03       16,917     9,750     7,167    26.9%
10/28/03       21,640     8,830    12,810    42.0%
11/04/03       24,132     9,703    14,429    42.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02


There is very little change here for the Small Trader but
Commercial Traders have upped both their longs and their shorts.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/14/03       16,595     9,433    7,162      27.5%
10/21/03       16,876     9,037    7,839      30.3%
10/28/03       20,504    11,366    9,138      28.7%
11/04/03       21,756    11,903    9,853      29.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/14/03        6,427     8,495   (2,068)   (13.9%)
10/21/03        5,392     8,842   (3,450)   (23.1%)
10/28/03        5,295     8,864   (3,569)   (25.2%)
11/04/03        5,099     9,160   (4,061)   (28.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 11-13-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

Play of the Day:           Breakout Squared

Tech Stock Closed Plays:   FLML

Stop Loss Adjustments:     -none-

Stock Split Announcements: CLBK

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

Play-of-the-Day  ( bullish  )

Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 20.10 change: +0.32 stop: 17.99

Company Description:
Steel Dynamics, Inc. [provides] a broad range of flat-rolled
products to the market, including light gauge micro-alloyed and
high strength steels for demanding automotive applications.
(Source:  Company Press Release.)

Why we like it:
Late last week, the World Steel Dynamics said it expected a world-
wide shortage of steel in Q1 of the next year.  Across the globe,
shares of steel manufacturers have risen.  U.S. steel
manufacturers have been in the news, too, as countries demanded
that Bush remove the steel tariffs he enacted to protect U.S.
steel manufacturers.

Wednesday, STLD broke above weekly resistance that had held since
mid-1999, and it did so on volume that was more than double
average daily volume.  As if that weren't enough to pique our
interest, we notice that STLD produced a double-top breakout
signal back in March with an upside target of $57.00.  While we
have no intentions of hanging around through the twists and turns
that might eventually bring STLD up to $57.00, we wouldn't mind
hanging on for an upside target of $25.00.

Because STLD has not yet had a reversal from the X column that
formed that P&F target, the target might go higher.  It's also
possible that STLD will pull back at some point into that first
three-box reversal, so we're placing this entry in the high-risk,
high-reward category.

MACD bearish divergences have abounded in stocks and indices as
they've added to recent gains, but not in STLD.  MACD has followed
prices higher, not signaling divergence.  RSI and 5(3)3
stochastics already trend at levels indicating overbought
conditions, as would be expected in a strongly trending stock.

We have a quandary about the entry for this stock.  While $20.00
is clearly important round-number resistance, Wednesday's strong
volume confirms the importance of the breakout over that long-term
weekly resistance.  While we're reluctant to enter just ahead of
$20.00, we think pullbacks and bounces from above $19.00 would
make ideal entries.  Such entries might not be offered, however,
and in that case, strong-volume moves above $20.00 would make
appropriate momentum entries.  We're setting a stop at $17.99,
just below the rising 21-dma.

Why This is our Play of the Day
There certainly isn't anything to dislike in our new play on STLD,
with the stock blasting to a new 4-year high on Wednesday and
following that up today with another 1.6% gain and its first close
over $20 since April of 1999.  Based on the strong volume that is
accompanying this rally out of the bull flag formation, we're
looking for higher levels ahead.  Next upside resistance comes in
at $22, but it doesn't really start to solidify until the $23-24
area.  This breakout over $20 certainly looks like a nice momentum
move and we're in favor of new entries on further strength.  Of
course, more conservative traders may still want to hold out for a
near-term pullback - perhaps to the $19.25-19.50 area, confirming
old resistance as new-found support.  In either event, we're
maintaining our stop just below $18, with support likely to be
strong at the combination of the recent consolidation lows near
$18.40 and the 20-dma ($18.26).

Annotated Chart of STLD:

Picked on November 12th at  $19.78
Change since picked:         +0.32
Earnings Date:             1/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        319 K

Tech Stocks

Closed Short Play

Flamel Tech. S.A. - FLML - cls: 27.85 chng: +3.12 stp: 26.25

With Tuesday's close just above $23, it seemed FLML was going to
achieve our downside target without much of a struggle.  But
something in the wind changed yesterday, with the stock
rebounding sharply to close just below $25 resistance.  We
expressed caution in last night's update, but there wasn't yet
enough strength to believe this rebound would be anything other
than another entry point.  Any bearish rollover hopes were dashed
at the open though, with the stock blasting through our $26.25
stop on the opening bar and then continuing higher right into the
closing bell for a total gain of more than 12.5%.  Clearly, our
concerns of a potential reversal were fulfilled today and FLML
must be dropped as a losing play.

Picked on November 2nd at $25.25
Change since picked        +2.60
Earnings Date            1/29/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.61 mln

Stop Loss Adjustments

No Stop Adjustments

Stock Split Announcements


CLBK declares 5-for-4 stock split and a quarterly dividend

During today's trading session, Commercial Bankshares, Inc.
(NASDAQ:CLBK) announced that its Board of Directors has approved a
5-for-4 stock split of its common shares.

The payable date for the stock split is set for January 2nd, 2004
to shareholders on record December 11th, 2003.  This is CLBK's
first stock split since the fourth quarter of 2002.

In addition to the stock split, CLBK has announced a regular cash
dividend of $0.16 per common share and a special cash dividend in
the amount of $0.05 per common share.  The dividends will be
payable on January 2nd, 2004 to shareholder on record December
12th, 2003.  The cash dividends will be paid on the newly issued
shares of CLBK (a.k.a. dividends will be paid on a post-split

About the company:
Commercial Bankshares, Inc. is the parent company of Commercial
Bank of Florida, a $780 million, state chartered, FDIC insured
commercial bank and a member of the Federal Reserve. The Bank
operates 14 branches in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida.
The Company's stock is traded on Nasdaq under the symbol CLBK.
(Source: Company Press Release)

  Trading Ideas

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             79.10     +0.61
GSK     GlaxoSmithKline (ADR)      46.76     +1.58
CVX     ChevronTexaco              75.75     +1.04
NOC     Northrop Gruman            91.41     +1.23
BR      Burlington Resources       49.50     +0.94
ASD     American Standard Cos      96.81     +0.58

Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)

AEOS    American Eagle Outftrs     18.34     +1.02
ARM     Arvinmeritor               18.76     +1.27
QADI    Qad Inc                    13.70     +1.17
AUDC    Audiocodes Ltd             10.59     +1.31
CACS    Carrier Access Corp        13.01     +1.23

Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)

PFE     Pfizer Inc                 33.45     +1.05
MRK     Merck & Co                 45.80     +1.55
LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             69.05     +2.86
BDX     Becton Dickinson & Co      37.85     +1.39
WFMI    Whole Foods Market Inc     64.68     +5.95
PNW     Pinnacle West Capital      37.99     +1.11

Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)

WMT     Wal-Mart                   55.52     -2.44
TIF     Tiffany & Co               44.70     -3.43
FDO     Family Dollar Stores       40.24     -1.58
ICN     ICN Pharmaceuticals        22.58     -1.44
ESPD    eSpeed Inc                 23.30     -3.10
BEBE    Bebe Stores                25.26     -2.17

Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

GP      Georgia-Pacific Corp        25.81     -1.19
NTLI    NTL Inc                     55.15     -2.12
MICC    Millicom Intl Cellular      61.20     -3.75

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