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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 11/16/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-16-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Big News Ahead
Play-of-the-Day:  Inflection Point
Market Sentiment: A Shadow of Pessimism


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 11-14        WE 11-07        WE 10-31        WE 10-24 
DOW     9768.68 - 41.11 9809.79 +  8.67 9801.12 +218.66 -139.33 
Nasdaq  1930.26 - 40.48 1970.74 + 38.53 1932.21 + 66.62 - 46.77 
S&P-100  519.01 -  1.69  520.70 +  0.72  519.98 +  9.73 -  6.87 
S&P-500 1050.35 -  2.86 1053.21 +  2.50 1050.71 + 21.80 - 10.41 
W5000  10244.66 - 45.10 10289.7 + 65.24 10224.5 +241.02 -114.88 
RUT      532.96 - 10.00  542.96 + 14.74  528.22 + 21.79 - 13.93 
TRAN    2927.64 - 51.65 2979.29 + 66.18 2913.11 + 85.86 - 20.03 
VIX       16.94 +  0.01   16.93 +  0.83   16.10 -  1.61 +  0.09 
VXO       17.63 +  0.07   17.56 +  0.41   17.15 -  1.78 -  0.26 
VXN       26.16 +  0.96   25.20 +  0.31   24.89 -  0.56 +  0.12 
TRIN       1.35            1.21            1.02            1.44 
Put/Call   0.69            0.78            1.12            0.91 
WE = week ending
================================================================= 

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Big News Ahead
by Jim Brown

The markets received another dose of mixed economic news on
Friday as well as some mixed earnings news. The result was
more indecision as to direction and another aimless day spent
wandering about on low volume. If November and December are
going to follow through on the historical best two months of
the year rally they are going to have to hurry.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


The mixed economic reports began with the PPI at +0.8% and 
four times the expectations at +0.2%. Higher beef prices 
benefiting from the lack of cattle exports from Canada were
a strong component. Higher auto prices needed to offset the
high sales incentives was the other major price jump. Still,
the core rate, minus food and energy, also rose +0.5%. Sure
glad we don't need food and energy to live. Shucks if we took
out the spike in auto prices as well the index would only be
up +0.2% and inline with estimates. Obviously none of us can
live without those components so the +0.8% inflation in prices
put some more fear into analysts that the Fed would have to
act sooner rather than later. 

The MARTS Retail Sales number for October fell -0.3% and more
than expected. The biggest drop was in auto parts, gas stations
and food and beverage stores. The drop in gas stations could
be attributed to the drop in oil prices in October but on 
Friday oil prices again hit a three-month high. This drop in 
retail store sales is not really severe enough to be a problem
but it was the second consecutive monthly drop. Slowing cash 
flow now that the tax checks are gone and the lack of mortgage
refis are the real culprit. This was the first two consecutive
months of drops since Jan-2002. 

Industrial Production fell slightly in October to only +0.2%
from September's +0.5%. Remember that blowout last month and
in July? (+0.8%) Back to reality again at a mediocre +0.2 and
Capacity Utilization rose a miniscule +0.1% from 74.9 to 75%.
This is a far cry from the hopes of rising demand causing 
ranks of new employees to be hired and new assembly lines
purchased. With 25% capacity still unused there is not going
to be a surge in equipment purchases or hiring any time soon.
Production of consumer goods and business equipment fell in
October after several months of gains. This follows my theory
that the 3Q GDP bounce was simply a production of merchandise
for the holiday season and they are going back to business as
usual already. That usual business has become filling orders
as they appear and no inventory building. Those inventories
are still at record lows and any real increase in demand 
could cause a very strong spike in Industrial Production but
so far it has failed to appear.

Depending on what numbers you believe, consumers are a 
bipolar group. The November Michigan Sentiment Survey rose to
93.5 for a jump of +4 points over the October numbers. This
was the high for the year and analysts were jumping all over
this with glowing outlooks. More lies from men in ties would
be my first thought. Retail sales is dropping like a rock
from the highs in Aug/Sep. Auto sales are slowing. Home sales
are slowing and mortgage loan applications hit a 52-week low
last week. Wal-Mart missed earnings because the broadest 
measure of sentiment, their customers, were curtailing their
spending. Why is the sentiment survey up when all the 
economics appear to be weakening. Could it be that consumers
have just bought the recovery story completely and are camped
out on the beach to watch the tidal wave arrive? The numbers
are not adding up on my calculator but I am all for a big
jump in expectations and a happy consumer. Happy people buy
things and they could be already mentally cashing their 
January tax checks two months early. 

Regardless of how we read the economic reports from Friday or
how we see consumer sentiment the markets did not like what
they saw. With all the reports public but the sentiment the
futures were trending lower and the indexes opened down. As
if by magic just as the markets appeared ready to tank a
major buy program appeared to push the Dow within 8 points
of 9900 and the Nasdaq to nearly 1980. Nice try by somebody
with deep pockets but no cigar. The instant the buy program 
completed the markets took back control and headed for the 
basement. The bulls tried to buy the dip at prior support 
of 9820 and 1950 but they could only slow the process, not 
stop it. Shortly after 1:PM there was one more attempt to 
rally the troops but the sellers were ready. Multiple 
support levels were broken on both indexes and the Dow 
ended up taking a loss for the week closing down -69 on 
Friday. The Nasdaq took the biggest hit closing nearly -50 
points off the morning high and right at the lows of the 
day. While this may sound very bearish we need to keep it 
in perspective. Both indexes are still above the lows for 
the week. They did lose ground for the week but only about 
-40 points each. Definitely not a major crash despite the 
magnitude of the day's drop. It was the speed of the 
intraday drop that concerned traders not the distance.

Volume was still light at 3.8 billion shares total but 
contrary to the strong bullish ratios from Wednesday the
declining volume was better than 3:1 over advancing volume.
Sounds bad but remember that Wednesday's triple digit gain
came on 6:1 up volume over down. We have to keep things in
perspective and part of that view has to include the new
52-week highs at over 700 on both Thursday and Friday. No
weakness there. So what happened?

There were multiple reasons that prompted investors to 
reconsider holding stocks over the weekend. GE started off
the day with a major broker cutting earnings estimates by 
a full nickel. This put GE, which has been under pressure,
on the defensive from the opening bell. GE closed at the 
low of the day at 27.86 and a three month low on volume of
27 million shares. That is 40% more than the average daily
volume of 19 mil shares. 

Microsoft announced they would be taking a charge this
quarter for employee stock option conversions and made
some statements about continuing legal problems. MSFT has
also been under pressure all week and it closed at the low
of the day and a three month low of 25.46.

CSCO found itself under pressure after Chambers sold two
million shares. This is not a relative amount for Chambers
but it helped to push CSCO back to 22.27 and erase the gains
for the week. 

The major news and possibly the major reason for the speedy
afternoon exit was an announcement by the SEC that they 
would announce a major settlement on Monday with a 
substantial financial penalty against a major broker. The
advance warning with no clue as to the nature and identity
of the culprit pushed financial stocks over the edge. Later
in the day one SEC official said in an interview that this
would be an entirely new area of investigation and not
related to mutual fund market timing or late trading. This
started the rumors flying and the consensus is the broker
will be censured for selling higher commission funds to
unsuspecting clients when possible. 

This was not the only new fund worries. American Express
came under pressure when it was announced the NASD and the
SEC had investigated fund trading and enforcement action 
had been recommended against them. They were not alone. 
Schwab announced they were under investigation by the SEC
and had found instances of improper trading in their funds.
While these two companies may have been seen as above the 
prior scandal it is clear that no stone is being left 
unturned. In addition to AMX and SCH there were new 
announcements of subpoenas or findings of problems at Legg
Mason, Raymond James, Labranche and Prudential. Fidelity 
Investments also said they had slashed their investments 
in PRU, MMC, TROW and BEN as the scandal begin to grow. 

The explosion of negative news in the blue chip companies
like AXP, PRU and SCH and the SEC warning that something 
big is coming on Monday probably proved too much risk for
investors. Funds are still under pressure from investors
shifting money but there is still money flowing into funds.
The bullish 4Q sentiment continues to flow according to
the fund trackers. AMG Data said $3.5 billion flowed into
funds last week. TrimTabs.com claimed an inflow of +$4.4B.
AMG said the four-week moving average rose to $5.4 billion
and the highest level since May-2001. Obviously all the
numbers contradict each other as the different companies
calculate numbers differently. Both will have even more
trouble in the future now that funds like Putman have 
stopped giving out fund flow data. I guess they were tired
of hearing sound bites every two minutes about how much
money investors had withdrawn from their funds. Fearing 
a monkey see, monkey do pattern they stopped the reporting.
It was learned on Friday that Putman may face additional
charges as more information is made public. They already
have 16 class action lawsuits in progress. Spitzer also
announced on Friday that he was not only looking at just
fund timing and late trading but was branching out into 
all the other areas including the annuity business. This
scandal is not going away anytime soon. 

Not only were the big caps hit today, led by GE and MSFT,
but the techs that had gained the most recently were the
hardest hit. After very good chip news this week the SOX
lost -3% led by AMAT which lost -6.7% and Intel which lost
-3% for the week. I mentioned on Thursday to watch drugs 
for money rotating out of techs. On Friday with the market
in the tank the $DRG.x rose +5.22 or +1.62% to cap a week
where it jumped from Tuesday's low of 304 to 326 at the 
close on Friday. (+7.2%) There are multiple reasons given
for the sudden attention to drugs like the potential for 
a Medicare bill and some more consolidation in the industry.
There is always a reason given but the coincidence is amazing. 
The jump in market cap on PFE, which traded a whopping
40 million shares on Friday, pushed PFE to be the third
largest company by market cap at $265 billion. It ranks
behind GE $280B and MSFT $276B. CSCO which once had a
market cap of $550B has shrunk to only $157B, well behind
INTC at $220B.

Next week is shaping up to be a whopper. Not only is it
an option expiration week but there are tremendous forces
at work. According to the Stock Traders Almanac the week
before Thanksgiving has been up TEN years in a row. That
is a very good record that has traditionally been helped
by the best two months of the year syndrome that begins
in November. Unfortunately the history books cannot tell
us what new scandal is going to be announced by the SEC
on Monday. 

What we do know is the economic calendar will be light
next week with only Business Inventories and NY State
Manufacturing Survey on Monday followed by the CPI on
Tuesday. If the CPI shows more inflation creeping into 
consumer prices you can bet the market will not be pleased.

My bias is neutral for next week. For any other week of
the year with the same factors leading into it I would
expect a negative result. However, I think the drop on
Friday was due to the fund news and the SEC announcement.
The very unusual announcement on Friday that there was
going to be a very big announcement on Monday was simply
too much of an unknown for traders to risk. How big is
very big? What new crime were they going to describe?
Who was the culprit? Citibank, BAC, ONE? Nobody knows. 
It could even be Fidelity or Merrill. When is the next
announcement going to be the last straw for investors?
This unknown going into a Friday close with the Ramadan
terror threat was just too much. I almost forgot to 
mention that at 12:30 Dow component XOM was handed an
$11.9 billion judgment payable to the state of Alabama.
Needless to say the market was under attack from all sides.

I would continue to watch the internals once the SEC news
has passed. The bullish bid is still there and with the
ten year record for next week fresh in investors minds
the odds are very good they will try to buy every dip. 
Assuming the SEC announcement on Monday does not alter
reality as we know it the odds are good that Dow 9725
will hold as support. I would buy a bounce at that level
once the news is out. However, should that level break
the next stop could be significantly lower, possibly in
the 9600-9650 range. The Nasdaq is at strong support at
1925-1930 and should that break we could easily see 1880.
Neither of those worst case scenarios would be life changing
for the markets. The uptrend would still be intact or maybe
I should say the sideways trend since we have not made any
substantial progress in over a month. The key is clearly
the SEC announcement on Monday but given their penchant
for showboating it may end up as no big deal when the 
smoke clears. Buy the bounce and sell the break but don't
get married to your positions until a trend appears. You
remember a trend don't you? That is where the market goes
in one direction for more than two days. Until then a long
term position may be measured in hours. 
   
Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bearish)
=========================


Solectron Corp. - SLR - close: 5.58 change: -0.19 Stop: 6.12

Company Description:
Solectron Corporation provides integrated supply chain solutions 
that span the entire product life cycle, including technology, 
manufacturing and services. The company has four operating 
segments: Global Operations, Technology Solutions, Global 
Services and MicroSystems. Through Global Operations, it provides 
customers with pre-manufacturing, manufacturing, materials 
management and fulfillment services for printed circuit boards, 
backplanes, system enclosures and complete electronic products. 
Technology Solutions provides modular memory and embedded systems 
design and related manufacturing services. Global Services is the 
company's primary provider of post-manufacturing services with 
solutions from the time a product is put in service until it is 
removed from the market. MicroSystems offers a broad portfolio of 
enabling solutions to the communications, automotive and military 
markets.

Why we like it:
While there is still a lot of strength to be found in the 
Technology sector, investors are definitely becoming more 
discriminating about their purchases.  That can be seen in shares 
of SLR, which has been a real laggard since late October, when it 
broke below its 50-dma (currently $6.09).  The $5.50 level has 
been key support going back to early October, but with the weak 
price action of the past two days, that support is definitely at 
risk.  Once it gives way, SLR should have a rather quick trip 
down to the next solid support near $4.50, also the site of the 
200-dma.  Certainly there is the possibility of the stock finding 
near-term support at $5.00, but that level looks less significant 
and we think the bears will likely press their advantage once the 
$5.50 level breaks.

This is definitely an aggressive play, especially with the PnF 
still on a Buy signal.  But with the ability to set a reasonably 
tight stop at $6.12 (just over the 50-dma and the top of the most 
recent failed rebound), SLR does present a favorable risk-reward 
dynamic.  The best entry appears to be on the break of our $5.50 
trigger, looking for a steady decline from there.  But traders 
willing to take the risk of missing the move can look for a 
subsequent failed rally below $5.70.  SLR will have to hit our 
trigger in order for it to be considered a live play.

Annotated Chart of SLR:


Picked on November 16th at  $5.58
Change since picked         +0.00
Earnings Date            12/22/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   5.35 mln




================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

A Shadow of Pessimism
- J. Brown

Friday just ended two weeks in a row that traders thought the 
markets would hit Dow 10,000 and NASDAQ 2,000.  Two weeks of 
churning sideways for the major averages when they should have 
been climbing on a host of positive economic news.  You probably 
heard the term before but is all the good news "already baked 
into the cake?"  The sell-off on Friday fueled some strong 
bearish internals with decliners out pacing advancers 17 to 11 on 
the NYSE and 20 to 10 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume more than 
doubled up volume on the NYSE and was nearly five times stronger 
on the NASDAQ.  These are pretty negative but they don't eclipse 
the strong positive internals from Wednesday's rally.  

Something I will note that should raise an eyebrow or two is the 
net long and short positions in the new CBOT data below.  
Commercial traders, who tend to be right more often than not, 
have been net short the NDX futures for the last four weeks in a 
row if not longer.  Obviously with the NDX and NASDAQ near one-
year highs it has been somewhat painful to be short but 
institutions can withstand a lot more pain than retail traders.  
What raises a note of caution to me is how commercial traders 
have been slowly raising their net short positions week after 
week.  There haven't been any huge jumps but their conviction for 
a reversal in the NDX is growing.  Small Traders tend to be on 
the wrong side of the trade and just like clockwork have slowly 
pushed their net longs in the NDX futures to the most bullish 
position in weeks.  It definitely makes one ponder the 
possibilities, especially given the extremely low volatility 
indices.

As Jim discussed in his wrap one of the growing investor 
sentiment issues that could be the next market hurdle is the 
mutual fund scandal.  Thus far it has had limited affect on the 
markets and fund flows remain positive.  Unfortunately, the list 
of culprits and institutions that have "uncovered" improper 
trading practices is growing.  Friday, two of the biggest names 
in the business, American Express and Charles Schwab, revealed 
that they are now under investigation by the SEC and/or the NASD.  
Meanwhile, the rest of the mutual fund community continues to 
announce new findings, layoffs, disciplinary actions or 
subpoenas.  The newest development is the SEC announcement on 
Friday that they would unveil a major settlement against a major 
player on Wall Street this Monday.  This sent the XBD broker-
dealer index to a 4% loss on Friday.  The SEC must be taking 
their cues from sweeps week television to leave the markets with 
such a cliffhanger.  Until the SEC makes their announcement 
trading could be cautious on Monday.  

Traders will also keep their ears open for any news from the huge 
COMDEX technology conference going on this week.  Comdex is one 
of several analyst conferences and these can be a stage for 
companies to announce good or bad news.  Fortunately, the markets 
do have an historical bias to be up the week before Thanksgiving.  
At least that's what the Stock Trader's Almanac is reporting but 
the combination of options expiration and a growing mutual fund 
scandal might prompt November to join August as a month that 
failed to hold to historical norms. 

Trade carefully.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9903
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9786

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9813
 50-dma: 9639
200-dma: 8908

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1063
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1050

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1053
 50-dma: 1034
200-dma:  956

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1453
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1407

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1429
 50-dma: 1389
200-dma: 1209


-----------------------------------------------------------------

There is little change in the volatility indices despite Friday's
gains in all of them.  They remain near all-time or five-year 
lows and continue to suggest the markets are at a top.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.94 +0.47
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 17.63 +0.79
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 26.16 +0.71


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.69        785,626       541,118
Equity Only    0.55        662,739       361,347
OEX            1.17         32,520        38,086
QQQ            1.25         33,039        41,201


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.4    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    72.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    - 3     Bull Correction
S&P 500       80.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       80.0    - 1     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-dma: 1.14
10-dma: 1.14
21-dma: 1.12
55-dma: 1.10


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1100      1010
Decliners    1710      2088

New Highs     215       192
New Lows       16        12

Up Volume    537M      294M
Down Vol.   1054M     1437M

Total Vol.  1601M     1797M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/11/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders continue to stall on making any big bets.
They remain slightly net short in the big S&P contracts. We
see the same hesitation in the small traders with little
overall change.  


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/21/03      394,176   411,246   (17,070)   (2.1%)
10/28/03      391,596   412,498   (20,902)   (2.6%)
11/04/03      391,079   415,136   (24,057)   (3.0%)
11/11/03      389,965   415,259   (25,294)   (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03
 
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03      136,643    88,290    48,343    21.5%
10/28/03      137,791    76,791    61,000    28.4%
11/04/03      137,829    78,206    59,623    27.6%
11/11/03      136,072    74,249    61,823    29.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Hmm... now we are seeing some action in the e-minis.  
Commercial traders have eliminated 12K short contracts and
upped their longs by 7K.  This has narrowed the gap but they
remain net short.  Small Traders have made big changes and 
reduced a big chunk (40K) of their long positions and 12K
of their shorts but they remain net long.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/21/03      226,985   236,906    ( 9,921)  ( 2.2%)
10/28/03      220,171   260,644    (40,473)  ( 8.4%)
11/04/03      242,409   270,785    (28,376)  ( 5.5%)
11/11/03      249,864   258,503    ( 8,639)  ( 1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03      168,236    56,564   111,672    49.7%
10/28/03      123,569    59,742    63,827    34.8%
11/04/03      135,525    63,006    72,519    36.5%
11/11/03       94,649    51,815    42,834    29.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Unfortunately we still don't see any big changes in the
NDX futures from the Commercial traders.  They have slowly
been upping their short positions, which is bearish for
the tech-heavy NDX.  Meanwhile small traders are at their
most bullish in four weeks.  Sounds like a potential top.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/21/03       36,314     43,305   ( 6,991) ( 8.8%)
10/28/03       36,168     46,272   (10,104) (12.3%)
11/04/03       34,159     48,293   (14,134) (17.1%)
11/11/03       35,889     49,201   (13,312) (15.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03       16,917     9,750     7,167    26.9%
10/28/03       21,640     8,830    12,810    42.0%
11/04/03       24,132     9,703    14,429    42.6%
11/11/03       26,212    10,730    15,482    41.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials still aren't making big bets in the INDU futures
and remain net long.  Small traders are hedging their bets a
bit by upping their longs and reducing their shorts by about
1,000 contracts each.  


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03       16,876     9,037    7,839      30.3%
10/28/03       20,504    11,366    9,138      28.7%
11/04/03       21,756    11,903    9,853      29.3%
11/11/03       20,209    11,660    8,549      26.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/21/03        5,392     8,842   (3,450)   (23.1%)
10/28/03        5,295     8,864   (3,569)   (25.2%)
11/04/03        5,099     9,160   (4,061)   (28.5%)
11/11/03        6,105     8,201   (2,096)   (14.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


-----------------------------------------------------------------



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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-16-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  CTSH

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bullish Play Updates:  RSH
  Bearish Play Updates:  T, PVN
  Closed Bullish Plays:  IR
  Closed Bearish Plays:  BG, STT

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     HPC
  New Bearish Plays:     SLR, TRMS
  Bullish Play Updates:  AU, GNTX, RAD, STLD
  Closed Bearish Plays:  MXO

Split Trader/Stock Splits
  Announcements:         MFLR


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 45.79 change: -0.79 stop: 42.75

It looks like we arrived just in time to sit through the next 
consolidation pattern in CTSH, as the stock continues to find 
resistance near $47.  On the hourly chart, the resistance is even 
more clear, demonstrating that once above $47.50, the stock ought 
to generate a bit of upside momentum, most likely to the top of 
the rising channel, which is currently at $49.25.  But in the 
meantime, we have the very real possibility that the stock will 
test the lower end of its 2-week consolidation pattern near $44.  
A rebound from that area (preferably from the 20-dma) would set 
up the optimum entry point while we wait for bullish strength to 
return.  We can reduce our risk in the play now by lifting our 
stop to $43.25, which is still below both the bottom of the 
rising channel ($43.30) and the 30-dma ($43.67).

Picked on November 12th at $46.86
Change since picked         -1.07
Earnings Date             1/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   1.04 mln






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


RadioShack - RSH - close: 31.66  change: -0.24  stop: 30.30

RSH bolted higher at Friday's opening, climbing just high enough 
to trigger our play before the stock's price succumbed to general 
market weakness.  Other electronics retailers such as Best Buy 
(BBY) and Circuit City (CC) also dropped, with each of those 
competitors dropping a higher percentage than RSH's 0.75 percent 
decline.  

RSH's decline came on less than three-fourths average daily 
volume.  Although volume confirmation isn't as important during a 
climb, a drop off in volume remains consistent with the belief 
that RSH consolidates. The various moving averages rise up 
beneath RSH's current price.  As happens with many stocks, we may 
see a brief dip down to those rising moving averages before RSH 
resumes its climb.  Any dips and bounces from above $30.50 could 
be used as an opportunity to enter new positions, but confirm 
that volume remains lower on the pullbacks than on the bounces.  
Perhaps check the S&P Retail Index $RLX to confirm strength in 
the retailers before considering new entries.

Annotated Chart for RSH:


Picked on Nov 12 at  32.15
Change since picked: -0.49
Earnings Date:    10/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.2 million




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


AT&T - T - close: 19.27  change: +0.06  stop: 20.05

At the end of the week, T announced another contract, this one a 
$2.3 million contract from Sykes Enterprises for an integrated 
networking solution.  Earlier in the week, T announced a contract 
with Skanska USA Building.  T's investors weren't impressed with 
the week's deals, however.  By Friday's close, T had tacked on 
mere cents to its stock price, with volume only slightly more 
than half daily average daily volume.  The day's candle was a 
doji printed just above the 200-dma and just below the recent 
resistance.

A doji printed after a climb can be a reversal signal, but this 
doji clouded the picture by printing within last week's 
congestion rather than at the top of that zone.  That doji may 
have less significance.  We certainly would have liked to have 
seen T close the week below the important 200-dma, but are 
gratified that it closed below $20.00, a number that is sure to 
have some resonance with investors checking their weekend 
newspapers for T's prices.  The North American Telecoms Index 
$XTC also printed a doji, but the $XTC's doji resulted in a .12 
percent decline.  

With oscillators slanting up, it's possible that T could continue 
to consolidate or could perhaps climb up to test the 30-dma, now 
at $19.58.  Watch for rollovers beneath that average as 
opportunities for new entries.  Perhaps confirm weakness in the 
$XTC before entering.

Annotated Chart for T:


Picked on Oct 29 at  19.07
Change since picked: +0.20
Earnings Date:    10/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  7.0 million



---

Providian Financ. - PVN - cls: 10.30 chng: -0.45 stop: 11.20*new*

Holy Perfect Timing, Batman!  We sure nailed the entry on PVN to 
a 'T' with Thursday's dip and slight rebound looking like the 
bears testing the waters before Friday's more than 4% slide to 
close at the low of the day.  It's hard not to like the volume 
picture here, with the selling volume steadily picking up 
strength since the break below our $10.80 trigger.  There's still 
the possibility of a bounce from $10 support, but at the current 
rate of descent, PVN looks to be on schedule for that rendezvous 
with the 200-dma (currently $9.12).  A failed rebound below 
$10.75 can be used for new entries, but we'd shy away from 
momentum entries to the downside due to the potential for a near-
term bounce from the $10 area.  While we're still targeting a 
move down to the 200-dma, more conservative traders may want to 
jump off a bit early as the stock nears the $9.50 level.  Lower 
stops to $11.20, which is above Wednesday's intraday high, as 
well as the 10-dma ($11.07).

Picked on November 12th at $10.88
Change since picked         -0.58
Earnings Date             1/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   2.86 mln






============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 59.53 change: -0.33 stop: 58.30

IR has been toying with us for over 2 weeks now, giving us hints 
of a breakout on more occasions than we can count, but here it is 
back below $60 again.  Tired of the relentless chop, we're losing 
confidence that the stock will ever get moving to the upside.  
Rather than continue to let it frustrate us, we're dropping IR 
tonight in favor of some new plays.  Traders still holding open 
positions should use any renewed strength early next week to gain 
a more favorable exit.

Picked on October 29th at $60.68
Change since picked        -1.15
Earnings Date            1/21/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.20 mln





  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------


Bunge Limited - BG - close: 27.50 change: +0.21 stop: 27.55

Despite getting off to a respectable start, our BG play just 
refused to do anything bearish last week.  Steadily recovering 
off the lows of the prior week right through Friday's session, 
the stock hit an intraday high of $27.60, topping our stop by a 
nickel before dropping back a bit into the close.  We were 
expecting another failed rebound and while this one may still 
fail, we're not comfortable keeping the play open after it has 
traded right back into major resistance and held its ground.  
Traders that weren't stopped out on Friday should use any 
weakness on Monday to secure a better exit.

Picked on November 2nd at $27.10
Change since picked        +0.40
Earnings Date            1/29/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     500 K




---


State Street Corp. - STT - cls: 50.75 chng: -0.46 stp: 51.75

After more than a week of lurking on our playlist without hitting 
its trigger, we've simply run out of patience with STT.  We were 
looking for a solid break below the $49.35 level and since the 
bears weren't able to pull that off, it looks like the bulls are 
going to try for a bonified rebound.  Since we haven't been 
triggered yet, we're going to err on the side of caution and 
close the play.  It still looks like it could break down, but the 
lack of directional movement over the past week reduces the 
likelihood of a substantial break.  We're dropping STT tonight to 
make room for better plays.

Picked on November 5th at $50.74
Change since picked        +0.01
Earnings Date            1/13/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  1.65 mln






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


Hercules Inc. - HPC - close: 10.36 change: +0.11  stop: 9.99

Company Description:  
Hercules manufactures and markets chemical specialties globally 
for making a variety of products for home, office and industrial 
markets.  (Source:  Company Press Release.)

Why We Like It:
Share of HPC got pummeled amidst a shakeup in corporate executive 
positions in early October.  Although the shakeup did not result 
in any downgrades that we can find, the stock plummeted, falling 
below $10.00 before it stabilized after its earnings report in 
late October.  HPC's earnings report revealed that the company 
benefited from the weak dollar vs. the euro, and the weak dollar 
may continue to help HPC.  HPC has been stabilizing for a month, 
testing its 200-dma, and it appears ready to push above next 
resistance at $10.50.  Since most stocks retrace at least 50 
percent of a big move, we expect a bounce up to $11.00 at a 
minimum, and want to capture a portion of that big percentage 
gain.  

Oscillators hint that the breakout may come soon.  Trigger this 
play on a move above $10.51.  Set the target at $10.95, just 
below the 50 percent retracement of the decline and the stop at 
$9.99, just below the 200-dma.  This high risk vs. reward 
parameter makes this a high-risk play suitable for aggressive 
traders only.   Be particularly watchful at $10.70, the site of 
the 38.2 percent retracement of the decline and also the site of 
a gap from early July.  Some traders might want to reset their 
stops to their entry levels as that $10.70 level is approached.

Annotated Chart for HPC:


Picked on Nov 14 at  10.36
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    10/30/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  864 thousand




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------



Solectron Corp. - SLR - close: 5.58 change: -0.19 Stop: 6.12

Company Description:
Solectron Corporation provides integrated supply chain solutions 
that span the entire product life cycle, including technology, 
manufacturing and services. The company has four operating 
segments: Global Operations, Technology Solutions, Global 
Services and MicroSystems. Through Global Operations, it provides 
customers with pre-manufacturing, manufacturing, materials 
management and fulfillment services for printed circuit boards, 
backplanes, system enclosures and complete electronic products. 
Technology Solutions provides modular memory and embedded systems 
design and related manufacturing services. Global Services is the 
company's primary provider of post-manufacturing services with 
solutions from the time a product is put in service until it is 
removed from the market. MicroSystems offers a broad portfolio of 
enabling solutions to the communications, automotive and military 
markets.

Why we like it:
While there is still a lot of strength to be found in the 
Technology sector, investors are definitely becoming more 
discriminating about their purchases.  That can be seen in shares 
of SLR, which has been a real laggard since late October, when it 
broke below its 50-dma (currently $6.09).  The $5.50 level has 
been key support going back to early October, but with the weak 
price action of the past two days, that support is definitely at 
risk.  Once it gives way, SLR should have a rather quick trip 
down to the next solid support near $4.50, also the site of the 
200-dma.  Certainly there is the possibility of the stock finding 
near-term support at $5.00, but that level looks less significant 
and we think the bears will likely press their advantage once the 
$5.50 level breaks.

This is definitely an aggressive play, especially with the PnF 
still on a Buy signal.  But with the ability to set a reasonably 
tight stop at $6.12 (just over the 50-dma and the top of the most 
recent failed rebound), SLR does present a favorable risk-reward 
dynamic.  The best entry appears to be on the break of our $5.50 
trigger, looking for a steady decline from there.  But traders 
willing to take the risk of missing the move can look for a 
subsequent failed rally below $5.70.  SLR will have to hit our 
trigger in order for it to be considered a live play.

Annotated Chart of SLR:


Picked on November 16th at  $5.58
Change since picked         +0.00
Earnings Date            12/22/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   5.35 mln



---


Trimeris, Inc. - TRMS - close: 23.20 change: -0.73 Stop: 26.25

Company Description:
Trimeris is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery 
and development of a class of antiviral therapeutics called viral 
fusion inhibitors (Fis).  The company's most advanced product 
candidates, T-20 and T-1249, are for the treatment of human 
immunodeficiency virus (HIV), type I.  T-20 is a first-generation 
FI that prevents HIV from entering and infecting cells, while T-
1249 is a rationally designed second-generation FI in an earlier 
stage of development.  Using its proprietary viral fusion 
platform technology, TRMS has identified and filed patent 
applications disclosing numerous discrete peptide sequences that 
appear to inhibit fusion for several viruses.

Why we like it:
The bulls made innumerable attempts over the past 2 years to 
break shares of TRMS to the upside on hope and hype over the 
company's Fuzeon AIDS treatment.  The last attempt was in the 
middle of July and when that failed, the stock fell back to 
strong support near $40.  Things took a nasty turn in mid-
September though, as TRMS broke below that level and then 
continued to slide all the way to $24, with that decline capped 
off by a sharp gap lower on news that the company's Fuzeon drug 
sales had been smaller and slower than expected.  After 
recovering from the bad news, investors bid the stock up to the 
$28 level, filling in the gap in preparation for another slide to 
support.  That was the perfect setup for a double bottom bounce, 
except that there was no bounce this time around.  TRMS plunged 
through the $24 support and are now resting at the March 2001 
reaction low.  If the stock breaks $23.00, then there really is 
no significant support to be found until $20.

But the $20 support may be insufficient to stem this slide, with 
investors apparently losing interest with TRMS' disappointing 
debut of Fuzeon still weighing on the stock.  Next support below 
there comes in at roughly $18, giving us a viable risk-reward 
setup, where we can target $20 to the downside, using a stop at 
$25.50, just above the $25 resistance of the past 4 days and the 
20-dma ($25.47).  We're going to forgo using a trigger with TRMS, 
as we may be able to get a better entry prior to that breakdown.  
Any failed bounce below $24 looks good for aggressive entries, 
although more conservative traders will want to wait for the 
break below $23 before playing.

Annotated Chart of TRMS:


Picked on November 16th at $23.20
Change since picked         +0.00
Earnings Date            10/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      621 K





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


AngloGold - AU - close: 44.50 change: +0.58  stop: 40.99*new*

AU came within $0.45 of our $45.00 target on Friday.  While 
that's great news, AU cannot continue to ramp up at the steep 
incline it's sustained lately.  We're not sure whether that 
consolidation will come before AU hits our trigger or after.  
MACD remains strong and volume has been increasing as AU climbs, 
confirming the strength, so there's not yet evidence of a 
pullback or consolidation to begin now.  In addition, the XAU 
pushed above $100.00 this week, and does not yet exhibit any 
weakness since climbing above that level.

However, conservative traders might elect to take profits here.  
We're raising our stop to $40.99, just below recent resistance, 
but conservative traders who do not want to close out the play 
might choose a higher stop.  One possibility would be $41.99, 
just below the rising trendline that has been supporting AU's 
prices since November 7.  Those seeking new entries could watch 
for a pullback and bounce from that trendline. Confirm strength 
in the $XAU before entering.

Annotated Chart for AU:


Picked on Nov 7 at   41.10
Change since picked: +3.40
Earnings Date:    10/31/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.0 million



-----


Gentex Corp - GNTX - close: 40.76 change: -0.48  stop: 39.15

Thursday, Prudential cut its rating of GNTX to a neutral rating 
from its previous overweight rating.  GNTX opened slightly above 
$40 that day, dipped just below that level and then climbed. The 
day's trading pattern produced a candle that sprang up from 
support.  Friday's trading pattern showed the opposite, a candle 
that sprang down from resistance.  Both candle bodies remained 
with the consolidation pattern that GNTX has been establishing 
above $40.00 and above the trendline that demarks its inverse H&S 
neckline.  

Volume proved lower on Friday's pullback than on Thursday's 
bounce from support and MACD still slants higher.  However, the 
MACD divergence that we've noted in the past continues, signaling 
caution.  We also note that both F and GM fell on Friday, 
increasing the caution to those considering new pullback-and-
bounce entries.  Confirm strength in the automakers before 
considering those entries on bounces from above the rising 
trendline.  Momentum entries would be offered on a break above 
$42.00, but confirm an expansion in volume before considering 
such an entry. 

Annotated Chart for GNTX:


Picked on Oct 29 at  39.69
Change since picked: +1.07
Earnings Date:    10/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  520 thousand



----


Rite Aid - RAD - close: 6.13  change: -0.14  stop: 5.75

Wal-Mart's (WMT) disappointing results and outlook hit the 
drugstore companies hard, too.  Why?  Companies such as RAD, CVS, 
and WAG benefit most from sales of front-of-the-store items such 
as cosmetics and candies, and WMT's statement included 
information buyers were concentrating on the cheapest items in 
the store. Still, with weakness in the retailers compounded by 
weakness in the broader markets, we were glad to see RAD continue 
its consolidation above $6.00.

A bevy of averages slopes up beneath the current price, with both 
the blue 21-dma and the black 30-dma now above our $5.75 stop.  
Oscillator evidence remains mixed, as sometimes happens in a 
consolidating stock.  Since RAD tends to fall back in bull flags, 
dipping down to the 30-dma before rising again, we wouldn't be 
surprised to see that happen this time, either.  Pullbacks and 
bounces from the 30-dma continue to offer new entries, although 
WMT's cautious outlook might suggest caution on entries in this 
retailing play, too.  Some might prefer to wait for a volume-
backed move above last Friday's high for new entries. 

Annotated Chart for RAD:


Picked on Nov 05 at   5.95
Change since picked: +0.18
Earnings Date:    09/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.5 million



----


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 19.80 change: -0.30 stop: 17.99

After announcing its intention to offer an additional $100 
million of its 9-1/2 percent Senior Unsecured Notes, with the 
proceeds to be used to pay off indebtedness and finance capital 
expenditures, STLD pulled back.  Volume proved light on the 
pullback, however, and only the RSI showed the impact.  Both 
stochastics and MACD remain bullish.  Although STLD closed the 
week below $20.00, it closed above resistance that had held for 
years, with that weekly close above that resistance an important 
coup for the stock.

Look for new entries on pullbacks and bounces from above $19.00 
or on volume-backed moves above Friday's high.  MACD remains 
strong, moving higher as price moves higher.

Annotated Chart for STLD:  


Picked on Nov 12 at  19.78
Change since picked: +0.02
Earnings Date:    10/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  359 thousand





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Maxtor Corp. - MXO - close: 11.87 change: +0.22 stop: 12.98

MXO is a great example of a play that went our direction, but 
never provided an acceptable entry when we wanted it.  Since 
plunging below $11, the stock has rebounded back to find 
resistance at $12, just below where we initially started 
coverage.   If anything, MXO looks like it is in the early stages 
of a rebound following its precipitous selloff.  There may still 
be a bearish play setting up in the near future, but right now 
we're having a hard time seeing it, especially with Friday's 
strong performance in light of the weakness on the overall 
NASDAQ.  We're dropping MXO this weekend and reporting it as the 
one that got away.

Picked on November 9th at $12.15
Change since picked        -0.28
Earnings Date            1/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =  3.94 mln






=================================================================
Split Trader/Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------


MFLR sets it sails for a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares

Mid session today, Mayflower Co-operative Bank, Inc. (NASDAQ:MFLR) 
announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 3-for-2 stock 
split of its common shares.

The payable date for the stock split is set for November 28th, 
2003 to shareholders on record November 21st.  Fractional shares 
will be paid in cash based upon the closing price of MFLR after 
market close November 21st. This is MFLR's first stock split since 
their 3-for-2 stock split in the first quarter of 1999.

Amid the company's stock split announcement, they reported that 
they expect their next quarterly cash dividend will be paid in 
December of 2003.  They also announced that the dividend rate 
should reflect the impact of the stock dividend payable on 
November 28th.

About the company:
Mayflower Co-operative Bank is a Massachusetts-chartered Co-
operative Bank specializing in residential and commercial lending 
and traditional banking services. The Bank serves southeastern 
Massachusetts from its main office in Middleboro, Massachusetts 
and full service branch offices in Plymouth, Wareham, Rochester 
and Bridgewater, Massachusetts. Total assets of Mayflower Co-
operative Bank at July 31, 2003 were $208.0 million and 
stockholder's equity was $17.0 million. All of the Bank's deposits 
are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) 
and the Share Insurance Fund (SIF) of Massachusetts.
(Source: Company Press Release)



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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-16-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 17, 2003
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of November 17th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------


Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

A      Agilent Technologies  Mon, Nov 17  After the Bell    0.05
ANPI   Angiotech Pharm       Mon, Nov 17  -----N/A-----    -0.16
DRYR   Dryr's Grnd Ice Crm   Mon, Nov 17  After the Bell     N/A
EON    E.ON AG               Mon, Nov 17  Before the Bell    N/A
ITY    Imperial Tobacco GroupMon, Nov 17  Before the Bell    N/A
JAS    Jo-Ann Stores, Inc.   Mon, Nov 17  After the Bell    0.51
LOW    Lowe's Companies      Mon, Nov 17  Before the Bell   0.53
OOM    MMO2                  Mon, Nov 17  Before the Bell    N/A
TOY    Toys R Us             Mon, Nov 17  Before the Bell  -0.10


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ADI    Analog Devices Inc.   Tue, Nov 18  After the Bell    0.23
BJ     BJ's Wholesale Club   Tue, Nov 18  Before the Bell   0.27
CNO    CONSECO INC           Tue, Nov 18  After the Bell     N/A
DKS    Dick's Sporting Goods Tue, Nov 18  Before the Bell   0.16
EPC    Epcos                 Tue, Nov 18  -----N/A-----      N/A
HD     Home Depot Inc        Tue, Nov 18  Before the Bell   0.46
NTAP   Network Appliance     Tue, Nov 18  After the Bell    0.09
ROST   Ross Stores, Inc.     Tue, Nov 18  Before the Bell   0.65
SKS    Saks Incorporated     Tue, Nov 18  Before the Bell   0.03
SPLS   Staples, Inc.         Tue, Nov 18  -----N/A-----     0.32
VOD    Vodafone Group Public Tue, Nov 18  -----N/A-----      N/A
ZLC    Zale Corporation      Tue, Nov 18  Before the Bell  -0.35

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BLI    Big Lots, Inc.        Wed, Nov 19  -----N/A-----    -0.04
HOTT   Hot Topic             Wed, Nov 19  After the Bell    0.28
INTU   Intuit                Wed, Nov 19  After the Bell   -0.26
LALW.OBLaidlaw Intl, Inc.    Wed, Nov 19  After the Bell     N/A
MRVL   Marvell Technology GrpWed, Nov 19  After the Bell    0.24
MW     Men's Wearhouse       Wed, Nov 19  After the Bell    0.20
OVTI   Omnivision Tech       Wed, Nov 19  After the Bell    0.31
PETC   PETCO ANIMAL SUPPLIES Wed, Nov 19  After the Bell    0.26
TLB    Talbots               Wed, Nov 19  -----N/A-----     0.60
TKA    Telekom Austria AG    Wed, Nov 19  Before the Bell    N/A
TTEK   Tetra Tech            Wed, Nov 19  After the Bell    0.28
UGI    UGI                   Wed, Nov 19  Before the Bell  -0.18


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

AEOS   Am Eagle Outfitters   Thu, Nov 13  Before the Bell   0.24
ARO    Aeropostale, Inc.     Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell    0.56
ADSK   Autodesk, Inc.        Thu, Nov 20  -----N/A-----     0.14
BKS    Barnes&Noble          Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell    0.09
BGP    Borders Group Inc.    Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell   -0.02
BRCD   Brocade Cmmu Sys, Inc.Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell    0.02
CLE    Claire's Stores       Thu, Nov 20  -----N/A-----     0.47
FL     Foot Locker, Inc.     Thu, Nov 20  -----N/A-----     0.34
FRED   Fred's                Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell   0.23
GPS    Gap Inc.              Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell    0.27
SJM    J. M. Smucker Company Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell   0.65
LMIN   Lastminute.com        Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell    N/A
LTD    Limited Brands        Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell   0.04
NGG    Ntl Grid Transco plc  Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell    N/A
JWN    Nordstrom             Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell    0.22
NOVL   Novell                Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell    0.03
PETM   PetsMart              Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell   0.20
SFD    Smithfield Foods      Thu, Nov 20  -----N/A-----     0.26
SCM    Swisscom AG           Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell    N/A
TKP    Technip               Thu, Nov 20  -----N/A-----     0.26
DIS    Walt Disney           Thu, Nov 20  After the Bell    0.15
WSM    Williams-Sonoma       Thu, Nov 20  Before the Bell   0.19


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

KKD    Krispy Kreme Doughnut Fri, Nov 21  Before the Bell   0.23


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

BLUD    Immucor, Inc              3:2      Nov  14th   Nov  17th
MSEX    Middlesex Water Company   4:3      Noc  14th   Nov  17th
LYTS    LSI Industries Inc        5:4      Nov  14th   Nov  17th
ERTS    Electronic Arts           2:1      Nov  17th   Nov  18th
SYMC    Symantec Corp             2:1      Nov  19th   Nov  20th
JBLU    JetBlue Airway            3:2      Nov  20th   Nov  21st
DIOD    Diodes Inc                3:2      Nov  25th   Nov  26th
JAH     Jarden Corporation        3:2      Nov  26th   Nov  27th
MFLR    Myflwr Co-operative Bank  3:2      Nov  28th   Dec   1st


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Wall Street has a full week ahead.  Various economic reports dot 
each day this week and we'll hear from numerous analysts 
conferences.


==============================================================
                       -For-           

----------------
Monday, 11/17/03
----------------
Business Inventories(BB)Sep  Forecast:    0.0%  Previous:    -0.4%
NY Empire State Indx(BB)Nov  Forecast:    27.0  Previous:     33.7
CSFB Financial Services & Insurance Conference
COMDEX 2003 Fall Expo

-----------------
Tuesday, 11/18/03
-----------------
CPI (BB)                Oct  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.3%
Core CPI (BB)           Oct  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
CSFB 4th Annual Large Cap Pharmaceutical Confernce
Lehman Brothers 2003 Chip & Computer System Conf
Merrill Lynch Banking Conference

-------------------
Wednesday, 11/19/03
-------------------
Housing Starts (BB      Oct  Forecast:  1.850M  Previous:   1.888M
Building Permits (BB)   Oct  Forecast:  1.850M  Previous:   1.875M
Semi Book-to-Bill Report

------------------
Thursday, 11/20/03
------------------
Initial Claims  (BB)  11/15  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     366K
Leading Indicators (DM) Oct  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:    -0.2%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)   Nov  Forecast:    25.0  Previous:     28.0


----------------
Friday, 11/21/03
----------------
Treasury Budget (DM)    Oct  Forecast: -$72.5B  Previous:  -$54.1B


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available




======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             79.69    +0.59
BMY     Bristol-Myers Squibb Co    26.75    +0.79
CAH     Cardinal Health Inc        61.00    +1.61
BR      Burlington Resources Inc   50.05    +0.55
APC     Anadarko Petroleum Corp    44.76    +0.82
APA     Apache Corp                72.31    +0.64
CMX     Caremark Rx Inc            26.90    +0.65
DGX     Quest Diagnostics Inc      70.20    +0.74
VLO     Valero Energy Corp         44.41    +0.71


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

SCON    Superconductor Tech         6.38    +1.22
PTRY    Pantry Inc                 19.75    +1.11
OPNT    Opnet Technologies Inc     15.46    +1.21


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

LLY     Eli Lilly & Company        71.28    +2.23
JNJ     Johnson & Johnson          51.15    +1.78
NVS     Novartis Ag (ADS)          40.86    +1.22
AVE     Aventis                    57.41    +2.61
SNY     Sanofi-synthelabo (ADS)    33.20    +1.34
PGR     Progressive Corp           79.50    +3.22
APOL    Apollo Group Inc CI A      66.54    +1.22


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MWD     Morgan Stanley             54.94    -2.75
AMGN    Amgen Inc                  58.25    -1.70
BTY     British Tecommun Plc       30.06    -1.04
BEN     Franklin Resources Inc     46.25    -2.40
TIF     Tiffany & Co               43.36    -1.34
BSC     Bear Stearns Companies     71.90    -3.21
LM      Legg Mason Inc             81.05    -3.77
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svc    46.86    -1.44


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

GS      Goldman Sachs Group Inc    93.80    -2.22
TOC     Thomson Corp               32.89    -0.69
PAYX    Paychex Inc                38.85    -1.25
CPB     Campbell Soup Co           26.00    -0.53
MAY     May Department Stores Inc  28.46    -0.63
GLH     Gallaher Group Plc (ADS)   40.40    -0.30



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