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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 11/18/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 11-18-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Do You Hear Singing?
Watch List:       MGAM, TTWO, SYMC, RJR and more!
Market Sentiment: Is The Top Behind Us?


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      11-18-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9624.16 - 86.70  9750.46  9622.39 1.62 bln   1288/1850
NASDAQ   1881.75 - 27.90  1926.00  1881.75 1.86 bln   1183/1929
S&P 100   512.22 -  4.01   518.82   512.09   Totals   2471/3779
S&P 500  1034.15 -  9.48  1048.77  1034.00
W5000   10082.84 - 89.60 10227.18 10081.66
RUS 2000  521.68 -  4.53   531.39   521.58
DJ TRANS 2866.95 - 26.20  2915.34  2866.95
VIX        19.11 +  0.51    19.17    17.78
VXO (VIX-O)19.90 +  1.08    19.90    18.33
VXN        29.65 +  1.84    29.71    27.88
Total Volume 3,805M
Total UpVol  1,060M
Total DnVol  2,605M
52wk Highs  318
52wk Lows    32
TRIN       1.58
NAZTRIN    1.79
PUT/CALL   0.76
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Do You Hear Singing?

Some traders claimed to be hearing the proverbial fat lady
singing today but I am not convinced. There were numerous
reasons for the drop but none of them were catastrophic. The
markets simply need a breather and the opportunity to rotate
into different sectors. While the four day Dow drop may seem
like a disaster if you are long it is only a blip in the
longer term trend. What does bother me is the weakness into
the close and events on the horizon so grab those reading
glasses and let's get started.

Dow Chart


Compx


S&P Chart


The morning economic reports were not very positive. The
Chain Store Sales for last week fell -0.8% and gave back
two thirds of the prior weeks gains. Overall the trend for
the last two months has been very choppy with excuses the
norm and sales weak. The Bank of Tokyo left the estimates
for the month at +4.0% but they are going to have to hurry.
Fortunately the Thanksgiving shopping is still ahead and
there is a good chance there will be a rebound.

Inflation is still at 40-year lows according to the Consumer
Price Index, which was released this morning. The index was
flat at +0.0% with the core rate only +0.2%. This raised the
rate for the last twelve months to only +1.3% and only a
tenth of a point from the +1.2% 40-year low in September.
On the surface this frees the Fed from worrying about the
inflation monster for at least another month. The bad news
is that the real prices we pay were rising with beef prices
at a 24 year high. The internal number that skewed the
results was a -3.9% decline in energy prices. That offset
some of the other gains but you can bet the Fed knows how
to count and will be looking at the internal components.

The home building market may be losing some of its luster
according to the NAHB numbers for November which dropped to
69 from 72 in September. While this is still high it shows
the pressure from the higher mortgage rates. The buyer
traffic fell to 46 from 52 and was the largest drop of
any component. CTX bucked the number today with a positive
outlook and suggesting that the boom will last. They said
that 2005 was looking very strong. This enthusiasm carried
over into their stock price which jumped +2.08 to 101.38 on
the outlook and a 2:1 stock split announcement.

The Fed is apparently not worried about the creeping
inflation and two Fed heads actually brought up the deflation
potential again. There comments on deflation/inflation along
with comments about being on the sidelines for some time
were welcomed by bond traders. Bonds were bought to the
relief of everyone but that did not help stocks.

Strong earnings from Home Depot failed to help the markets
out of their slump. HD credited tax check liquidity and
several natural disasters as well as an overhaul of their
stores for the strong sales in all sectors. Sales were up
nearly +15% with earnings at 50 cents beating estimates
by four cents. HD lost -50 cents on the day after trading
up strongly at the open.

The biggest factor dragging on the market was the various
terror alerts and incidents. With Ramadan ending next Tuesday
it is almost a sure thing there will be an escalation in
events over the next week. The threats are coming fast and
furious and most are directed at friendly Arab nations and
the U.S. There was a strong rumor during the day that traders
were moving to the sidelines due to the Bush trip to London.
Even with security at the highest possible level it is still
more risky than the same exposure in the U.S. Traders were
worried that putting Bush at higher risk during the last
week of Ramadan was too tempting a target for terrorists.
This trip had been planned for 18 months so plenty of time
for them to get their act together.

Some of the biggest targets are the various oil fields and
pipelines in Arab world. Saudi Arabia is said to be very
concerned that their pipelines could be attacked as well
as other critical points. Oil prices are rocketing as the
worry filters through the markets. Oil finished over $32
today and a multi month high. The growing terror threat is
also causing a run on the gold markets. Some say the Arabs
are buying gold as insurance against an oil knockout. There
is also the growing fighting in Iraq and a continuing flood
of insurgents from other countries. Several military analysts
are predicting a war with Syria soon. Evidently they are not
cooperating with the U.S. and are harboring terrorists. Any
U.S. attack on ANY other country in the region would seriously
destabilize the region and weaken support among other Arab
countries. I seriously doubt this is going to happen since
the Iraq conflict is getting worse instead of better but
the rumors are flying.

Another challenge is the falling dollar. With the Euro at
a two year high over the dollar it makes it more profitable
to sell oil to Europe instead of the U.S. This means the
prices we pay to offset the weaker dollar will be higher.
Also, according to the money watchers the money flow into
the U.S. markets from abroad has nearly stopped. The monthly
average inflows into the bond market for the prior four months
had been $39 billion. In October only $5 billion was invested
in our bonds. This is the equivalent of a trickle. The same
is said to be true of inflows into stocks. Overseas investors
are becoming increasingly worried that the U.S. will not be
able to fund the deficit, which could swell to $4 trillion
according to some estimates, without selling massive amounts
of debt over the next couple of years. They are also worried
that the Fed is going to be forced to raise rates to combat
inflation and that will stall the recovery and make the
deficit worse. Add in soaring oil prices and terrorist
threats of 100,000 American deaths in a coming attack and
foreigners think the risk is too great.

Foreign investors were also hit with trade sanctions against
China and worries that the U.S. is becoming more protectionist.
This was triggered when the U.S. imposed temporary "safeguard"
trade sanctions against textile products from China on Tuesday.
Under China's WTO accession agreement there was a provision
for caps on imports if the flow of goods became unbalanced.
U.S. manufacturers requested the sanction be imposed and that
limits imports to 7.5% of last years levels. Much of China's
textile exports are from state-owned firms subsidized further
by state-owned banks. Profit is not a motive but employment
of the population. Dumping of these products into the U.S.
market harms U.S. manufacturers.

The dollar hit a five month low against the Euro at $1.19
to buy 1 Euro. This 20% difference is well above the
historical highs of 80 cents to the Euro and is causing
havoc on the currency markets. George Soros is short the
dollar and has been taking every chance possible to hammer
it even more. The world events are simply adding to the
pressure.

Nikkei Chart


The Nikkei rallied +110 points last night to near 9900 but
the gain was minor compared to the -1500 points the index
had lost from the October highs. The rebound on Tuesday may
have only been a dead cat bounce or a small relief rally.
The continuing global pressures could continue to press the
Nikkei down to real support at 9500. Any decline like this
overnight would put some serious pressure on our markets.

Our markets do not need any more pressure. They are on the
verge of cracking and need for those mysterious buyers who
always seem appear at critical points to show up at the bell
tomorrow. The Dow, Nasdaq and SPX all closed under their
critical 50 day moving averages. This has provided support
since March. The indexes only broke that support by a few
points on a day where the Dow lost -86 points but it was a
very negative day. It was not that bad in points lost but
it appeared to be an acceleration of the recent down trend.
The Dow has closed down for four consecutive days on good
economic news. The total loss is only -220 points but that
drop has put us right on the verge of breaking that strong
support.

The closing sentiment was negative and we closed on the
lows of the day. The Dow at 9624 is well below the lofty
levels near 9900 just three days ago. The Dow 10,000 hopes
have been dashed and replaced with Dow 9500 fears. Looking
at the charts tonight those fears could easily come true
this week should the markets not be able to mount a rebound
at tomorrows open.

Helping depress the open already was late news of 47
currency traders being arrested in New York for scamming
small investors. Details are very sketchy at 7:PM but
there is plenty of film footage of handcuffed traders
being loaded into FBI vans. The futures dropped
substantially on the news and are now near their closing
lows.

There was also more mutual fund news after the close with
claims that the founder of Strong Funds had been accused of
front running his funds purchases. According to reports he
bought large quantities of small cap stocks that his funds
were going to buy and then resold them at a profit when the
fund went into the market to buy stock. This came on top of
news that the Janus International CEO had been terminated
along with several managers for improper trades. It was also
announced that investors withdrew another -$7 billion from
Putman in the last week making more than $25 billion over
the last three weeks. Putman's assets were down almost -10%
and Calpers announced they were withdrawing another $1.2
billion in managed assets. With withdrawals coming in faster
than deposits it is no wonder the equity markets are under
pressure.

Need more reasons for financials to be under pressure?
FRE was under pressure after it was announced that Federal
investigators are looking into investment transactions that
were arranged by major investment banks like LEH, MWD, MER
and Citibank. Apparently they structured temporary transactions
to move profits off the FRE books so that FRE would not have
to report windfall profits from derivative transactions. In
one instance Citibank was said to have hidden $700 million
in profits so that FRE could report earnings inline with
estimates. Many of the banks earned fees in excess of $25
million a year for assisting in these transactions.

In a week where all the news has been bad there was one
highlight. Merrill Lynch upgraded GE to buy with a target
of $33. Surprised? Merrill Lynch cut estimates on GE just
last week from $1.65 to $1.60 for the year. With the upgrade
the same analyst now believes GE will hit $1.85 earnings in
2005. His reason for the upgrade? The double-digit earnings
growth from his lowered estimate last week. Duh! This
analyst had a buy on GE from $57 all the way down to $22
when he went to neutral. GE was over $28 when he cut it
last week and $27.50 when he upgraded it today. GE jumped
to a high of $28.92 on the upgrade and declined to 28.50
at the close. Guess they had bought all the GE they wanted
on the way down and needed to lighten the load some.

Wednesday could be exciting. We do not have any major
economic announcements but there is sure to be a flurry of
news events to rile the markets. If the Dow can hold over
9600 we have a chance of pulling out of this slump. Just
remaining flat could give the bargain hunters confidence
and we could see a relief bounce. However, with Bush
overseas, the end of Ramadan still a week away and breaking
news on the continuing trading scandals we are not likely
to breakout into a new bullish trend. We just need to
consolidate peacefully and let time pass. The week before
Thanksgiving has been bullish for the last 10 years but it
is going to have to hurry to close this week in positive
territory. Regardless of the market move tomorrow the
overall market health is still strong. This is a normal
profit taking event helped by the strong news flow. Unless
the Dow breaks below 9000 the uptrend is still intact.
Until the end of Ramadan next Tuesday I would not be in
a hurry to buy the dips. Just look at it as research time
and a future buying opportunity.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Multimedia Games, Inc. - MGAM - close: 44.11 change: +1.39

WHAT TO WATCH: After 3 consecutive days of steady losses in the
broad market, it's tough to find solid bullish play candidates,
but MGAM certainly qualifies.  After dipping near the 10-dma, the
stock caught a solid bounce and appears ready to break out to new
highs.  Use a trigger above $44.90 and look for a move up towards
the 450 level.




---

Take-Two Interactive - TTWO - close: 33.47 change: -2.63

WHAT TO WATCH: That giant sucking sound is the rush of investors
out of video game stocks on the heels of disappointing sales.
TTWO plunged over the past two days and the stock is right on the
verge of breaking another key support level.  Trigger entry on a
drop below $32 and target a move down to strong support at $28
near the 200-dma.  There's the potential for a bounce from the
$30 area, but based on the strong volume on today's slide, it may
take a bit of time for this decline to come to a stop.



---

Symantec Corp. - SYMC - close: 61.35 change: -4.71

WHAT TO WATCH: Competitive comments from CA had shares of SYMC
plunging sharply lower on Tuesday and this is definitely too
large a move to have us interested in a chase.  But the break
below strong support on huge volume also speaks of a move that is
for real.  Look for a failed bounce under the 50-dma (preferably
near $64) to provide for a lower risk entry, in anticipation of a
drop to support near $57 and then $55.




---

RJ Reynolds Tobacco Hlds - RJR - close: 51.01 change: +0.08

WHAT TO WATCH: Tobacco stocks have been back in style lately and
RJR has had an impressive recovery from just below $30 just a few
months ago.  Each consolidation near recent highs leads to a
breakout and RJR looks ready to do it again.  Use a trigger above
$51.75 and target next resistance in the $55-56 area.





===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

QCOM $45.43 - It may seem strange to mention QCOM in a bullish
light after losing nearly 3% on Tuesday, but we've got our eye on
the bigger picture.  QCOM was due for a bout of profit taking,
but technically still looks strong, holding above the bottom of
its channel and the 50-dma.  This current weakness may turn out
to be the prelude to a great long entry on a rebound from strong
support in the $44-45 area.

AMZN $48.50 - We mentioned AMZN as a bearish candidate last week,
and we were looking for a failed rebound from $55 for entry.
That lined up almost perfectly before the stock began plunging
lower, ending at $48.50 today.  This looks like too much of a
downward move to chase right now, but a failed bounce below the
50-dma ($52.96) could be just the ticket for a continuation entry
on the way to breaking below $45 and drilling all the way down to
$40.

BCR $76.01 - Marching steadily lower after breaking the $78
support level, BCR looks like it may just be getting started.
While the 50-dma may provide some mild support near $75, this
stock looks destined to come back and retest strong support in
the $72 area.  There's no need to get in a hurry or chase BCR
lower though.  The best entries will come on the heels of a
failed bounce that stalls out below the 20-dma.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Is The Top Behind Us?
- J. Brown

The major U.S. stock indices (DJIA, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ
Composite) have all broken their rising simple 50-dma's.  This is
certainly a bearish technical development and given the rise in
the volatility indices one begins to wonder if the markets have
finally put in a short-term top.

Market internals were bearish as the DJIA and NASDAQ closed lower
for their fourth decline in a row.  Decliners out paced advancing
stocks 17 to 11 on the NYSE and 15 to 14 on the NASDAQ.  The Big
Board saw most of the selling with down volume twice as strong as
up volume.  Only four of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial components
closed in the green.

Yesterday's late day bounce appeared to have "buy the dip"
written all over it but the follow through failed to appear
Tuesday morning.  Making headlines were growing concerns over the
U.S. dollar, which is trading near its lows against the Japanese
yen and the euro.  The weak dollar is fueling the rise in gold
and the shiny metal is trading above the $400 mark in after hours
tonight.

Looking at the technical indicators below (in the sentiment)
traders will notice that the short-term 5-dma on the ARMS index
or TRIN is fast approaching the 1.50 level.  Typically readings
over 1.50 tend to be bullish buy signals but last time the 5-dma
hit the 1.65 mark before the markets turned.  Plus, these TRIN
signals tend to be a little early.  It sounds like we have
farther to fall.

Levels to watch involve the 1020 area on the SPX, the 1840-1850
area on the NASDAQ, and the 9500 mark on the DJIA.  A breakdown
below these support levels could denote a possible trend change
and not just profit taking.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9903
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9624

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9777
 50-dma: 9644
200-dma: 8924

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1063
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1034

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1050
 50-dma: 1035
200-dma:  958

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1453
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1364

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1417
 50-dma: 1389
200-dma: 1213


-----------------------------------------------------------------

We are finally beginning to see the volatility indices react and
the market top could now be behind us.  The question now is will
the selling continue?

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.11 +0.51
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 19.90 +1.08
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 29.65 +1.84


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.76        745,954       565,047
Equity Only    0.63        568,928       355,730
OEX            0.87         49,631        43,197
QQQ            0.84         45,598        38,306


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          72.9    - 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    68.0    - 4     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       79.2    - 2     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       79.0    - 1     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-dma: 1.46
10-dma: 1.29
21-dma: 1.20
55-dma: 1.14


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1133      1410
Decliners    1701      1570

New Highs     167       166
New Lows       21        28

Up Volume    501M      521M
Down Vol.   1091M      634M

Total Vol.  1602M     1173M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/11/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercial traders continue to stall on making any big bets.
They remain slightly net short in the big S&P contracts. We
see the same hesitation in the small traders with little
overall change.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/21/03      394,176   411,246   (17,070)   (2.1%)
10/28/03      391,596   412,498   (20,902)   (2.6%)
11/04/03      391,079   415,136   (24,057)   (3.0%)
11/11/03      389,965   415,259   (25,294)   (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03      136,643    88,290    48,343    21.5%
10/28/03      137,791    76,791    61,000    28.4%
11/04/03      137,829    78,206    59,623    27.6%
11/11/03      136,072    74,249    61,823    29.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Hmm... now we are seeing some action in the e-minis.
Commercial traders have eliminated 12K short contracts and
upped their longs by 7K.  This has narrowed the gap but they
remain net short.  Small Traders have made big changes and
reduced a big chunk (40K) of their long positions and 12K
of their shorts but they remain net long.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/21/03      226,985   236,906    ( 9,921)  ( 2.2%)
10/28/03      220,171   260,644    (40,473)  ( 8.4%)
11/04/03      242,409   270,785    (28,376)  ( 5.5%)
11/11/03      249,864   258,503    ( 8,639)  ( 1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03      168,236    56,564   111,672    49.7%
10/28/03      123,569    59,742    63,827    34.8%
11/04/03      135,525    63,006    72,519    36.5%
11/11/03       94,649    51,815    42,834    29.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Unfortunately we still don't see any big changes in the
NDX futures from the Commercial traders.  They have slowly
been upping their short positions, which is bearish for
the tech-heavy NDX.  Meanwhile small traders are at their
most bullish in four weeks.  Sounds like a potential top.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03       36,314     43,305   ( 6,991) ( 8.8%)
10/28/03       36,168     46,272   (10,104) (12.3%)
11/04/03       34,159     48,293   (14,134) (17.1%)
11/11/03       35,889     49,201   (13,312) (15.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03       16,917     9,750     7,167    26.9%
10/28/03       21,640     8,830    12,810    42.0%
11/04/03       24,132     9,703    14,429    42.6%
11/11/03       26,212    10,730    15,482    41.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials still aren't making big bets in the INDU futures
and remain net long.  Small traders are hedging their bets a
bit by upping their longs and reducing their shorts by about
1,000 contracts each.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/21/03       16,876     9,037    7,839      30.3%
10/28/03       20,504    11,366    9,138      28.7%
11/04/03       21,756    11,903    9,853      29.3%
11/11/03       20,209    11,660    8,549      26.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/21/03        5,392     8,842   (3,450)   (23.1%)
10/28/03        5,295     8,864   (3,569)   (25.2%)
11/04/03        5,099     9,160   (4,061)   (28.5%)
11/11/03        6,105     8,201   (2,096)   (14.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03



-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 11-18-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (C) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================


Play of the Day:  New Lows

Stop Loss Adjustments:     TRMS

Stock Split Announcements: CTX

Trading Ideas
 We're sorry.  There will be no Trading Ideas tonight.


=================================================================
Play-of-the-Day  (Bearish)
===============

Trimeris, Inc. - TRMS - cls: 23.20 chng: -0.73 stop: 25.00*new*

Company Description:
Trimeris is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery
and development of a class of antiviral therapeutics called viral
fusion inhibitors (Fis).  The company's most advanced product
candidates, T-20 and T-1249, are for the treatment of human
immunodeficiency virus (HIV), type I.  T-20 is a first-generation
FI that prevents HIV from entering and infecting cells, while T-
1249 is a rationally designed second-generation FI in an earlier
stage of development.  Using its proprietary viral fusion platform
technology, TRMS has identified and filed patent applications
disclosing numerous discrete peptide sequences that appear to
inhibit fusion for several viruses.

Why we like it:
The bulls made innumerable attempts over the past 2 years to break
shares of TRMS to the upside on hope and hype over the company's
Fuzeon AIDS treatment.  The last attempt was in the middle of July
and when that failed, the stock fell back to strong support near
$40.  Things took a nasty turn in mid-September though, as TRMS
broke below that level and then continued to slide all the way to
$24, with that decline capped off by a sharp gap lower on news
that the company's Fuzeon drug sales had been smaller and slower
than expected.  After recovering from the bad news, investors bid
the stock up to the $28 level, filling in the gap in preparation
for another slide to support.  That was the perfect setup for a
double bottom bounce, except that there was no bounce this time
around.  TRMS plunged through the $24 support and are now resting
at the March 2001 reaction low.  If the stock breaks $23.00, then
there really is no significant support to be found until $20.

But the $20 support may be insufficient to stem this slide, with
investors apparently losing interest with TRMS' disappointing
debut of Fuzeon still weighing on the stock.  Next support below
there comes in at roughly $18, giving us a viable risk-reward
setup, where we can target $20 to the downside, using a stop at
$25.50, just above the $25 resistance of the past 4 days and the
20-dma ($25.47).  We're going to forgo using a trigger with TRMS,
as we may be able to get a better entry prior to that breakdown.
Any failed bounce below $24 looks good for aggressive entries,
although more conservative traders will want to wait for the break
below $23 before playing.

Why This is our Play of the Day
Shares of TRMS were already looking pretty weak when we initiated
coverage over the weekend, and the weakness in the broad market
has certainly helped things along.  That $23 support gave way
yesterday morning and we were encouraged by the complete lack of
participation in the late-day bounce.  The bulls gave the upside a
feeble shot this morning, but the old support at $23 had turned to
resistance and the stock sold off from there, ending the day at
its low and at the lowest point since late 1999.  Of course the
weakness in the Biotechnology sector (BTK.X), which lost 2.27%
today, didn't hurt.  It certainly looks as if TRMS is well on its
way to our $20 target.  Successive failed rebounds below $23.25
look viable for new entries, while momentum traders still have
enough downside potential to work with that a break below $22 can
be used for aggressive entry as well.  We're lowering our official
stop to $25, which will be below the 20-dma ($25.06) by tomorrow.
More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop at
$24.40, just over the 10-dma ($24.34).

Annotated Chart of TRMS:



Picked on November 16th at $23.20
Change since picked         -1.10
Earnings Date            10/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      629 K



=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================


TRMS - short
Adjust from $26.25 down to $25.00



=================================================================
Stock Split Announcements
=================================================================

ANNOUNCEMENT
------------

CTX proposes 2-for-1 stock split

Shortly before today's opening bell, Centex Corporation (NYSE:CTX)
announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 2-for-1 stock
split of its common shares.

The split is subject to shareholder approval.  As of yet, the
shareholder meeting has not yet been scheduled, but is anticipated
to take place within the next 120 days.  The BoD hopes to increase
the authorized common shares from 100 million to 300 million.
Upon approval of the stock split, CTX will have approximately 125
million shares outstanding

The company will also keep their annual cash dividend at 16 cents
a share but will pay it on a post-split basis (effectively
doubling it).


About the company:
Through its subsidiaries, Dallas-based Centex, a Fortune 250
company, ranks as one of the nation's premier companies in the
Home Building, Financial Services, Home Services and Construction
Services industries.
(Source: Company Press Release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

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