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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 11/24/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 11-24-2003
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Techs Soar as Bulls Buy The Dip

Play of the Day:  Thar She Blows


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     11-24-2003            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9747.79 +119.26  9749.35  9629.87 1.59 bln   2188/ 666
NASDAQ   1947.14 + 53.26  1947.14  1907.29 1.76 bln   2249/ 880
S&P 100   519.31 +  7.54   519.33   511.77   Totals   4437/1546
S&P 500  1052.08 + 16.80  1052.08  1035.28
RUS 2000  539.51 + 13.58   539.51   525.93
DJ TRANS 2898.98 + 53.66  2899.54  2846.28
VIX        17.44 -  1.54    18.98    17.19
VXO        17.15 -  2.74    19.13    17.06
VXN        27.07 -  2.01    29.80    26.77
Total Volume 3,730M
Total UpVol  3,077M
Total DnVol    604M
52wk Highs     549
52wk Lows       32
TRIN          0.48
PUT/CALL      0.65
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Techs Soar as Bulls Buy The Dip
by James Brown

Stocks rushed higher on Monday as investors blew a collective
sigh of relief.  The weekend was a quiet one with no terrorist
events being reported as we approach the close of Ramadan, which
should end tomorrow.  This left investors with one focus and that
was the host of economic reports due to be announced tomorrow and
Wednesday.  The underlying theme today was "buy the dip" as UBS
said investor optimism rose to 20-month highs.  Investors are
expecting the economic news this week to be positive and reaffirm
that the world's largest economy is still on its path to
recovery.

Asian markets were relatively flat but European exchanges
reported strong gains.  The English FTSE rose 1.47% and the
German DAX rocketed 2.6%.  Both exchanges have bounced strongly
the last few days with the German DAX up more than 4% from its
recent intraday lows near 3590.  Bulls took their cue from their
European counterparts and U.S. exchanges witnessed a very broad-
based rally.  The only sector not in the green today was the XAU
gold & silver index, which closed down 1.59%.  December gold
futures fell about $5 to settle at $391.50 an ounce after the
U.S. dollar improved against the yen and the euro.

The buying pressure was strongest in technology stocks with the
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) index rising 3.34%.  All of the major
technology-related sector indices ($SOX, $NWX, $INX, $GSO, $GHA,
$DDX) added 3 percent or better with a few adding close to 4
percent in today's session.  Investors also saw strong gains in
airlines (+3.85%), biotech (+3.95%), homebuilders (+3.72%),
retail (2.59%) and the HMO index (+2.54%).  The rise in the
DJUSHB home construction index broke through the 600 level to
close at new all time highs.  By the closing bell the DJIA added
119 points to settle at 9747.  The NASDAQ Composite added 2.81%
(53 points) to close at 1947 and the S&P 500 added almost 17
points to close at 1052.

Market internals were very bullish.  Advancing stocks outnumbered
declining stocks 21 to 7 on the NYSE and 22 to 9 on the NASDAQ.
The only big losses were in the volatility indices with the VXO
(old VIX) falling 13.77% and the VIX down 8.1%.  The up/down
volume numbers were very optimistic with up volume approximately
5 times down volume across both exchanges.  Unfortunately, total
volume was rather mild and will probably continue to worsen as we
head toward the weekend in this holiday-shortened week.

Chart of the DJIA:



Chart of the NASDAQ:



Chart of the S&P 500:



Surprise, surprise!  As if the huge gains today didn't say it
enough but UBS reported that investor optimism has soared to 20-
month highs.  The UBS Index of Investor Optimism jumped to 93 in
November, a gain of 24 points.  According to the survey 57
percent of investors are optimistic about the country's economy
and 60 percent feel the economy to be in a recovery.  All of this
pent up optimism is great but it sets us up for one heck of a let
down if any of the major economic reports this week fail to
deliver.  Contrarian investors, who like to run opposite the
crowd have to be cringing, especially as the volatility indices
plummet today.

Tomorrow's economic reports will take center stage with the Third
Quarter Preliminary GDP numbers, the Redbook Retail Sales report,
the October Existing Home Sales figures, and the November
Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers.  Paramount on the
list is the GDP figures.  It was only a few weeks ago that the
Commerce Department reported a 7.2% annual pace from July through
September.  Now economists are estimating that the government
could revise these numbers even higher, not lower as previously
thought.  Some estimate that the new upward revision could put
GDP at 7.8 to 8.0 percent growth.  This would be the strongest
quarter since early 1984 where GDP grew at 9.0 percent.
Furthermore the National Association for Business Economics
believes the economy may expand by 4.5% in 2004, an upward
revision from their previous 4.0% forecast.

There were several companies making headlines today.  Boeing (BA)
led the list as it fired its CFO Mike Sears "for cause".
Evidently, Sears had unethically hired one Darleen Druyun, an Air
Force official.  The two had communicated about future employment
with Boeing before Druyun removed herself from acting as a
government official in business deals regarding Boeing.  Druyun
was apparently involved in BA's tanker-leasing deal and the Joint
Strike Fighter contract.  Shares of BA closed up 3 cents on the
session.

Time Warner (TWX), previously known as AOL Time Warner, reported
that it had sold its music business for $2.6 billion.  Buying the
music division was an investor group lead by Thomas H. Lee
Partners, Bain Capital, Providence Equity Partners and Edgar
Bronfman Jr.'s Lexa Partners.  Shares of TWX rose better than 2
percent on the news.

Jumping more than 5% today was Boston Scientific (BSX).  Weeks
ago Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) tried to get a preliminary injunction
against Boston Scientific to stop development and marketing of
its Taxus drug-coated stent, which would compete with JNJ's
Cypher stents.  The majority of analysts did not expect JNJ to
win the suit but it had kept a lid on BSX's share price.  Today a
U.S. District Judge has denied JNJ's request.  Analysts believe
drug-coated stents could be a $4 billion business in the U.S. by
2005 and BSX is going to be stiff competition for JNJ.

Another Dow component making the rounds was Wal-Mart (WMT).  WMT
affirmed that its November same-store sales were tracing inline
with estimates for 3 to 5 percent growth.  Most believe that this
holiday season will probably be the best since 1999.  Recent
earnings announcements from a number of apparel stores have been
strong and investors have high hopes the trend will continue.

Tech investors will also be happy to hear that Novellus (NVLS),
the manufacturer for tools used to make semiconductors, raised
its earnings guidance after the closing bell.  NVLS' CEO told
investors in a mid-quarter update that expected orders were on
track to rise 25% to $275 million.  The company said total
revenues for the quarter should actually come in at $220 million,
topping analyst estimates of $217 million.  NVLS raised their net
income guidance to the top of their range at 6 cents, a penny
above consensus estimates.  The SOX added 3.6% today but given
its bounce from the rising 30-dma this NVLS news could propel it
to current overhead resistance near the 530 level.

This hasn't been the best year for using historical trends to
time market performance but once again traders are faced with a
strong history for bullishness during Thanksgiving week.  The
general concern is that volume tends to dry up as market players
go home for the holiday.  The low volume will then exacerbate
moves in either direction.  The real danger here is the numerous
economic reports on Wednesday, one of the lowest volume days of
the week.  A positive surprise and we may or may not get the pop
higher one might be expecting.  Yet a negative surprise could
catch many off guard and quickly send us lower.  In spite of my
cautionary tone today's gains, which erased most of last week's
losses, confirms that buyers are still there.  The upward trend
hasn't been broken just yet.  Another couple of positive days and
we could see NASDAQ 2000 by Thanksgiving.



===============
Play-of-the-Day  ( bullish )
===============


Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 18.30 chng: +0.88 stop: 16.90*new*

Company Description:
Juniper Networks, Inc. is a provider of network infrastructure
solutions that transform the business of networking by converting
bandwidth into a dependable and secure corporate asset.  The
company's products, services and solutions enable service
providers and other network-intensive businesses to support and
deliver services and applications on an efficient and low-cost
integrated network.  Products are designed and purpose-built for
service provider networks and offer its customers high performance
with less complexity and cost than legacy alternatives.

Why we like it:
When we initiated coverage of JNPR on Wednesday, it looked like
the stock was ripe for a rebound from dual support at the bottom
of the rising channel (now $17.00) and the 50-dma ($17.19).  A
couple days have passed and very little price action has
transpired, with the stock holding just above $17, but not yet
able to mount a credible bounce.  In addition to the channel and
the 50-dma, JNPR has the lower Bollinger band ($16.86) rising to
provide support for that bounce.  A rebound from as low as $17.00
looks good for new entries ahead of our expected bounce, first to
the midline of the channel near $19 and then up to the top of the
channel, now at $20.75.  Risk in the play can be tightly
controlled with our stop set at $16.25, just under the 10/23
intraday low.

Why This is our Play of the Day
We waited throughout last week for JNPR to catch a bounce from the
bottom of its channel and the 50-dma ($17.23) to no avail.  But
that bounce arrived with conviction on Monday, with the stock
gaining more than 5%, clearing both the 10-dma ($17.89) and the
20-dma ($18.12) in the process.  Daily Stochastics have now turned
bullish and our next upside objective will be the $19 resistance
level, which also happens to be the midline of the ascending
channel.  Once above there, JNPR will be in position to challenge
its early November highs and then perhaps take a run at the top of
the channel near $21.  Another dip and rebound from above the 30-
dma ($17.75) can be used for new entries, as can a push above
today's $18.38 intraday high.  Raise stops to $16.90, which is
just below the 50-dma and the bottom of the channel.

Annotated Chart of JNPR:



Picked on November 19th at  $17.69
Change since picked          +0.61
Earnings Date              1/08/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    10.2 mln



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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 11-24-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Loss Adjustment: JNPR

Active Trader Plays
 Closed Bearish Play:  PVN

High Risk/Reward Plays
 Closed Bearish Play:  CYD, TRMS

Stock Split Announcement: DFG


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments:
==================================================================


JNPR - long
Adjust from $16.25 up to $16.90


==================================================================
Active Trader Non-tech (AT) section
==================================================================

CLOSED PLAY
-----------

  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------


Providian Financial - PVN - cls: 11.14 chng: +0.34 stop: 11.20

Everything was looking good for awhile in our PVN play as the
stock broke down below strong support and continued lower on
strengthening volume.  When the stock tagged $10.00 a week ago,
it looked like we were well on our way to reaching our target
near the 200-dma.  Alas, it wasn't to be as last Monday's dip
turned out to be the bottom of the move.  Strong buying volume
prevailed today, driving the stock briefly through our $11.20
stop for the first close over the 20-dma since this downtrend
began in late October.  Clearly it's time to move on and any
early weakness tomorrow should be used to close out remaining
bearish positions.

Picked on November 12th at $10.88
Change since picked         +0.26
Earnings Date             1/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   2.92 mln






==================================================================
High Risk/Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

CLOSED PLAY
-----------

  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------


China Yuchai Intl - CYD - close: 29.31 change: +3.56  stop: 29.01

With China’s Shanghai Composite gaining more than 3 percent in
Wednesday’s trading, many Chinese-related stocks opened higher in
U.S. trading, too.  CYD was no exception, opening higher and then
gaining throughout the day.  Although CYD stayed within the
rectangular congestion pattern that’s part of its potential
bearish distribution pattern, RSI turned up and other oscillators
hint at an upturn, too.  These suggest that CYD might break
through the top of that congestion band.  Since this play has not
yet triggered, we think it’s time to drop it and look for a
better-performing play.

Picked on Nov 19 at  26.55
Change since picked: +2.76
Earnings Date:    03/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  4.0 million



---


Trimeris, Inc. - TRMS - close: 23.40 chng: +0.58 stop: 23.40

Continuing the rebound that began on Friday, shares of TRMS
bounced hard this morning, helped along by the strength in the
Biotechnology sector (BTK.X), which led the sector leaders with a
3.95% advance.  TRMS shot over $24 early in the day, easily
hitting our $23.40 stop before falling back a bit during the
midday lull, only to come back and end right at our stop.  As we
cautioned over the weekend, it looked like the break from the
descending channel last week portended a trend change and today's
surge justified our fears.  Any open positions should have been
stopped out today, and we're dropping the play tonight near where
we initiated coverage for a par result.

Picked on November 16th at $23.20
Change since picked         +0.20
Earnings Date            10/15/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      629 K






==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------


DFG shareholders benefit from 3-for-2 split and dividend increase

Before today's opening bell, Delphi Financial Group, Inc.
(NYSE:DFG) announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 3-
for-2 stock split of its common shares, as well as a 50% increase
in their regular cash dividend.

The payable date for both the stock split and dividend increase is
set for December 22nd, 2003 to shareholders on record December
8th.  On a post-split basis, the regular cash dividend will be
$0.08 per share of common stock held.


About the company:
Delphi Financial Group, Inc. is an integrated employee benefit
services company. Delphi is a leader in managing all aspects of
employee absence to enhance the productivity of its clients and
provides the related insurance coverages: group life, long-term
and short-term disability, excess workers' compensation for self-
insured employers, travel accident and dental. Delphi's asset
accumulation business emphasizes individual fixed annuity
products. Delphi's common stock is listed on the New York Stock
Exchange under the symbol DFG and its corporate website address is
www.delphifin.com.
(Source: Company Press Release)



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To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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