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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 11/30/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-30-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Buyers Gave Thanks
Play-of-the-Day:  Down on a Downgrade
Market Sentiment: In the Turkey Trance


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 11-28        WE 11-23        WE 11-14        WE 11-07 
DOW     9782.46 +153.93 9628.53 -140.15 9768.68 - 41.11 +  8.67 
Nasdaq  1960.26 + 66.38 1893.88 - 36.38 1930.26 - 40.48 + 38.53 
S&P-100  520.74 +  8.97  511.77 -  7.24  519.01 -  1.69 +  0.72 
S&P-500 1058.20 + 22.92 1035.28 - 15.07 1050.35 -  2.86 +  2.50 
W5000  10352.22 +253.34 10098.8 -145.78 10244.6 - 45.10 + 65.24 
RUT      546.51 + 20.58  525.93 -  7.03  532.96 - 10.00 + 14.74 
TRAN    2921.23 + 75.91 2845.32 - 82.32 2927.64 - 51.65 + 66.18 
VIX       16.30 -  2.68   18.98 +  2.04   16.94 +  0.01 +  0.83 
VXO       16.71 -  3.18   19.89 +  2.26   17.63 +  0.07 +  0.41 
VXN       25.61 -  3.47   29.08 +  2.92   26.16 +  0.96 +  0.31 
TRIN       1.04            1.04            1.35            1.21 
Put/Call   0.69            0.80            0.69            0.78 
WE = week ending
================================================================= 

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Buyers Gave Thanks
by Jim Brown

The buyers rallied out of the gate on Monday after being 
depressed by new mutual fund disclosures and terror warnings
the prior week. They managed to push the indexes right back
to prior resistance and hold them there right into Friday's
close. In short, buyers gave thanks for the dip and bought
their Thanksgiving desert on sale. 

Dow Daily Chart


Nasdaq Daily Chart


S&P Daily Chart



There were no economic reports on Friday but Wednesday was
a banner day that needs a little review. The mostly bullish
report calendar was highlighted by a massive jump in the PMI
to 64.1 from 55.0. This is an eight year high and represents
the seventh consecutive month of gains. The component gains
were led by a jump in new orders to 73.3 from 59.2 and that
would indicate the recovery in the Chicago area is picking
up speed. Order backlog rose to 59.6 from 47.3. This report
was very bullish but it was met with a yawn. The bad news
was the jump in the prices paid component from 61.5 to 67.3.
This shows that inflation is beginning to gain traction and
the Fed is probably beginning to get nervous. 

The Jobless Claims fell again and faster than expected to 
only 351,000 and -9,000 below estimates. Claims were revised
up for the prior week by +7,000 to 362,000. Still this is 
continued good news for consumers and for the markets. If
jobless numbers continue to decline next week they could 
break the psychological 350,000 level and the level where
it is commonly assumed a real turnaround in employment has
occurred. This continued drop is bullish for the long term
market. The drop in claims over the last four weeks should
impact the non farm payroll report next Friday and estimates
are for a gain of +150,000 jobs. 

However, the October Monthly Mass Layoffs soared to 158,240
and nearly double the 82,647 reported in September. This is
in stark contrast to the Jobless Claims and the expectations
for the employment report next week. It is however a late
report for the October period where the other reports are
more current. Manufacturing and the West Coast reported the
most layoffs. 

The final Michigan Sentiment for November was inline with
estimates at 93.7 and unlike the Consumer Confidence failed
to soar to higher than expected levels. The expectations
component showed the biggest gains from 83.0 to 88.1. The
headline number finally exceeded the highs reached last
May with the post war rebound to 92.1. The Michigan Sentiment
is less dependent on business conditions than the Consumer
Confidence and the smaller bounce could be due to consumers
maintaining a wait and see attitude. 

The strongest report was the Durable Goods jump of +3.3%
compared to estimates of only +0.8%. This was the strongest
gain since Sept-2002 and coupled with the +2.1% jump in
September shows a rapidly accelerating recovery. On a year
over year basis the gain was +8.2% and the sharpest growth
in over three years. Unfilled orders continues to jump 
indicating that orders are coming in faster than they can 
be filled. This is good for the employment factor as 
manufacturers will begin to add workers to keep up with
the orders. 

The Beige Book described a broadening expansion over the 
last six weeks and suggested a positive outlook for retail
sales for the holiday. Areas improving included retail sales,
tourism and domestic travel. They did say that business 
travel remained weak. Outlooks for commercial real estate 
actually improved in several regions. This was one the most
positive Beige Book reports since 2001. 

After all the positive reports last week we have a lighter
calendar next week but it still contains some blockbuster
names. Monday we will get the ISM data for November and it
is only expected to be flat with the 57.0 reported in Oct.
Based on the positive gains over the last month this could
produce an upside surprise. On Wednesday we have the ISM
Services Index and Productivity. The ISM Services is also
expected to be flat or down at 64.0 but the Productivity
is expected to jump to +8.3% with whisper numbers in the 
+9.0% range. Friday rounds out the reporting week with the
Non Farm Payrolls and Factory Orders. Factory Orders are
expected to rise by +0.8% and the economy is expected to
have added +150,000 jobs. 

Obviously there is plenty of room for disappointment in
those numbers with the ISM the only potential for a real
upside surprise. This sets up next week to be confusing 
for most traders. 

The month end for November went out with a whimper with
both the Dow and Nasdaq gaining less than 10 points each
on Friday. Wednesday was not much better with the Dow
only gaining +15 an the Nasdaq +10. Shucks Tuesday was
flat also with the Dow +16 and the Nasdaq -4. The only
really bullish day in a normally bullish week was Monday
which stormed out of the gate as I expected. That left the
indexes trending positive but unable to make any real gains
for the rest of the week. 

Where was the month end portfolio window dressing? Where
were those monster bullish days we have seen in Thanksgiving
week in the past? Economics were good, terrorists were on
holiday and there was not any really negative stock news.
The indexes failed several times at resistance but managed
to close very close on Friday. Dow 9800, Nasdaq 1960, S&P
1060 have proved to be difficult. Actually the S&P at 1060
has been the failure point for the entire month. The Dow
at 9800, Nasdaq 1960 while current resistance and are 
actually lower highs for those indexes. Dow 9900 and Nasdaq
1980 were the prior resistance highs. Could this be a leading
indicator for next week with the bearish divergence by the
Dow?   

Dow Weekly Chart



While the overall market sentiment is still strongly bullish
there are numerous cracks trying to appear around the edges. 
In the chart above you can see the long term down trend 
resistance from the market highs in Jan 2000. Except for 
the May-16th 2001 temporary spike above the line the trend
is very clear. The Dow ran full speed into the 9900 down 
trend several times in November and failed each time. The 
current down trend resistance has declined to 9850. There
are many analysts who feel this resistance will hold and we
are going to begin another down leg soon. 

The thought process is that the market is fully valued at 
this level until the Q4 earnings are known. Everyone is
hoping for top line revenue growth based on the economics
but not wanting to bet on it. Lately each time we near the
9800 level the buyers simply evaporate. Like I said last 
week they are willing to buy the dip but not the top. Until
they are willing to push the bears out of their comfort 
zone we will remain trapped at this level.  

Nasdaq Weekly Chart

 
The Nasdaq is not without its own level of resistance but
more horizontal than down trending. The Nasdaq has strong
resistance from 1960 to 2050 and that is not going to be
broken quickly. Even a break over 2050 only leads to more 
strong resistance at 2250. 

With Monday typically bullish from fund inflow purchases 
I am a long way from predicting any sell off. I am simply
suggesting that moving up from here may be difficult. The
markets have huge overhead supply from 10,000 and above
from traders hoping to get out of positions they have held
since we traded in the 10,000 range for about seven months
in early 2002. This level represents very strong congestion.

In order to get through this congestion we need a catalyst.
There are no events in the near future that should fill this
bill. With the Dow up +33% from the March lows and the Nasdaq
+56% the indexes are starting to look tired. Not weak, just
tired. Like a marathon runner turning the corner at 22 miles
and finding the last four miles are all up hill the markets
are suffering from chest pains and leg cramps but determined
to finish the race. Finish, but not sprint out into the lead. 

As we move into the last four weeks of the year, 22 trading
days, the goal is still Dow 10,000. This is the yardstick 
where the market recovery will become official. It is the
psychological finish line and it is tantalizing us just a
few points ahead. Actually the nearness of the goal could
be preventing a material sell off. The optimism is so strong
that everyone expects it to be reached. Why sell now when
we are so close? Good point but like the investors who have
been holding since we last broke under Dow 10,000 their 
patience may be wearing thin. 

I said we need a catalyst and short of Osama and Saddam 
being found sharing a hideout in Tikrit the good news is
already priced into the market. +8% recovery in the GDP?
Priced in. Jobless Claims under 350,000? Priced in. Non
Farm Payrolls +150,000? Priced in. PMI 64.1? Priced in.
Consumer Confidence soaring to 91.7? Priced in. Over the
last eight months the market has discounted those events
and now that they have come to pass there is little to 
look forward to. At least nothing visible in our immediate
future. The 4Q earnings will be critical. If there is top
line growth then we could ratchet up expectations for 2004
to the next level. If not then investors will probably
subtract some expectation premium from markets. 

The only real expectation in our future is for the beginning
of the next rate hike cycle. The next Fed meeting is only a
week away on Dec-9th and there will be quite a bit of rate 
hike apprehension going into that announcement. Fed funds
futures are suggesting a March rate hike and the Fed needs
to give the markets further assurance that there will be
no hikes for a "considerable period" or the reaction could
be negative. We are entering the period where talk is cheap
and the Fed will likely try to talk its way out of trouble
to delay the rate hikes until the last minute. I expect the
Fed heads to hit the campaign trail next week with carefully
crafted statements meant to calm the bond and equity markets.

To put all the prior comments in perspective I am not looking
for a dramatic week ahead. The first trigger will be the ISM
on Monday then the INTC mid quarter update on Thursday. If
INTC raises guidance then we might make that 10,000 goal. If
they talk down estimates then I expect to remain range bound.
The Jobs number on Friday had better be positive or the 
vacuum left by the imploding markets is liable to suck your
keyboard into your monitor. Forget the reports from last 
week the ISM and JOBS are the only reports than matter now.

What I am looking for is a potential retest of 9800-9850 on 
Monday from mutual fund cash hitting the markets. That is
of course assuming the cash outflows from funds under 
pressure does not offset the inflows. With the dollar still
falling we cannot expect help from overseas investors. We 
are on our own. If the ISM is less than exciting I would 
expect a return to 9700 and the middle of our current range
to wait for the Jobs number on Friday. If the Jobs report
is uninspiring then I would expect one more dip before
a potential Santa Claus rally. Institutions would like to 
clear the decks for one more push to Dow 10K in late December
so they can dress up their statements with D10K comments.
With the VXO at 16.50 there should not be a lot of upside
left so I am still expecting a sales event with a touch of
Dow 10,000. Everybody put Dow 10K on your holiday gift list
and lets get 2004 kicked off with a bang. 

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bearish)
=========================

FuelCell Energy - FCEL - close: 13.46 change: -0.30  stop: 14.85

Company Description:
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (www.fuelcellenergy.com), based in Danbury, 
Connecticut, is a world-recognized leader for development and 
commercialization of high efficiency fuel cells for electric 
power generation. The Company's Direct FuelCell(R) (DFC(R)) 
technology eliminates external fuel processing to extract 
hydrogen from a hydrocarbon fuel. This results in a product whose 
cost, combined with high efficiency, simplicity and reliability, 
results in product advantages for stationary power generation. 
The Company has been developing DFC technology for stationary 
power plants with the U.S. Department of Energy through the 
National Energy Technology Laboratory, whose advanced fuel cell 
research program is focused on developing a new generation of 
high performance fuel cells that can generate clean electricity 
at power stations or in distributed locations near the customer, 
including hospitals, schools, data centers and other commercial 
and industrial applications.  Its wholly owned subsidiary, Global 
Thermoelectric Inc., is a leader in the development of solid 
oxide fuel cell (SOFC) products and the world's largest 
manufacturer and distributor of thermoelectric stationary power 
generators for use in remote locations. (Source:  Company Press 
Release)

Why We Like It:
We're in favor of clean electricity and high efficiency, but the 
technical considerations in this chart prompted our interest.  In 
early November, shortly after FCEL's shareholders agreed to the 
acquisition of Global Thermoelectric, FCEL filed SEC form 8-K, 
and FCEL and Enbridge agreed to a distribution pact, FCEL began 
dropping.  On November 19, Robert W. Baird downgraded the company 
from neutral to underperform, setting a $10.00 target.  The stock 
gapped down that day, dropping after a few days to a low of 
$12.72 before beginning to climb.  We were watching, waiting for 
the rollover we thought was inevitable.  That rollover might be 
beginning now.

Last week, FCEL climbed to test the linked 10 and 50-dma's. 
Wednesday's trade demonstrated investors' indecision about 
driving the price higher, as the day's trading produced a doji.  
Friday, price began declining beneath that 50-dma again.  We 
think it might soon roll down toward $10.00 and its 200-dma.  
FCEL has a P&F sell signal with an $8.50 downside target, so a 
test of $10.00 appears doable.  Because of expected round-number 
support at $10.00, we're setting our target just above that 
level, at $10.25.  Participants can enter at the current level or 
on bounces that roll down beneath the 50-dma.  Verify that volume 
stays low on such bounces.

Annotated Chart for FCEL:


Picked on Nov 28 at  13.46
Change since picked: -0.00
Earnings Date:    12/16/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  753 thousand





================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

In the Turkey Trance
- J. Brown

The stock market was in a slow drift higher on Friday but the 
DJIA and the NASDAQ composite still managed some huge gains 
adding +2.89 and +6.95 points, respectively.  Traditionally the 
day before and after Thanksgiving is bullish and this year didn't 
disappoint, although I probably would have expected a bigger 
post-turkey day rally.

The news on Friday was focused on two things.  The start of the 
holiday shopping season with "Black Friday" and the President's 
surprise visit to Baghdad.  Wall Street calls the day after 
Thanksgiving "Black Friday" not for any morbid reason but because 
it was often seen as a barometer for how the Christmas shopping 
season would pan out.  Plenty of retailers do a huge chunk (20% 
to 50%) of their annual sales during the holidays.  If shopping 
is strong on the Friday after Thanksgiving it indicated that the 
retailers would end the month "in the black" or with a profit 
instead of a loss.  Of course we've been hearing for weeks now 
how analysts believe this could be the best shopping season since 
1999.  Expectations are high and it could lead us to a Santa 
Claus rally.

The other big story of the day was President Bush's super-secret 
trip to Iraq.  Bush showed up just in time to speak to, serve 
dinner to and eat with some 600 army soldiers for Thanksgiving.  
The press is giving it a lot of positive coverage and it appears 
to have lifted more spirits than just those on the front line.  

Investor sentiment feels rather positive.  Many expect investors 
to come back on Monday in a buying mood.  Yet the real question 
is how this attitude mixes with the hordes of money managers 
whose only focus is to preserve their current gains until 
December 31st.  This lack of risk-taking could leave us in a 
range-bound market.  We have a handful of economic reports this 
coming week although nothing too earth shattering.  The real 
focus will probably be the FOMC meeting on Dec. 9th. 




-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9903
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9782

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9717
 50-dma: 9670
200-dma: 8978

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1063
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1058

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1046
 50-dma: 1038
200-dma:  965

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1453
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1424

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1395
 50-dma: 1394
200-dma: 1228


-----------------------------------------------------------------

After a shortened week of mild gains there appeared to be some
put buying, possibly to protect profits, as the VIX and VXO
both edged slightly higher.  Together all three volatility 
indices remain at extreme lows and suggest very high levels
of caution for bullish investors.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.32 +0.09
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.71 +0.80
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 25.63 +0.00 unchanged


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.69        270,108       186,728
Equity Only    0.55        218,810       121,315
OEX            1.25         19,658        24,570
QQQ            1.11          7,850         8,707


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.2    + 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    73.0    + 1     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       79.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       78.0    + 0     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.84
10-dma: 1.16
21-dma: 1.10
55-dma: 1.15


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1526      1706
Decliners    1106      1179

New Highs     312       174
New Lows       12        11

Up Volume    337M      512M
Down Vol.    225M      164M

Total Vol.   576M      684M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------


Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/18/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Will it never end?  The commercial traders refuse to move any
positions or make any more big bets in the full S&P futures
contracts.  They've been oscillating in the current range for
weeks.  Small traders have bumped up both their short and long
positions but they remain relatively equidistance from each other.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/28/03      391,596   412,498   (20,902)   (2.6%)
11/04/03      391,079   415,136   (24,057)   (3.0%)
11/11/03      389,965   415,259   (25,294)   (3.1%)
11/18/03      393,893   414,442   (20,549)   (2.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03
 
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/28/03      137,791    76,791    61,000    28.4%
11/04/03      137,829    78,206    59,623    27.6%
11/11/03      136,072    74,249    61,823    29.4%
11/18/03      147,842    80,047    67,795    29.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The e-minis are seeing some action.  Commercials upped their
short positions but not by too much.  Small traders also 
raised their short positions by 10K contracts (almost 20% of
outstanding shorts).


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/28/03      220,171   260,644    (40,473)  ( 8.4%)
11/04/03      242,409   270,785    (28,376)  ( 5.5%)
11/11/03      249,864   258,503    ( 8,639)  ( 1.7%)
11/18/03      249,286   264,083    (14,797)  ( 2.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/28/03      123,569    59,742    63,827    34.8%
11/04/03      135,525    63,006    72,519    36.5%
11/11/03       94,649    51,815    42,834    29.2%
11/18/03       95,119    61,975    33,144    21.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders are still stuck in limbo with outstanding
longs and shorts in NDX futures barely budging the last few
weeks.  Meanwhile small traders have turned more bullish with
a nice jump in outstanding long positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/28/03       36,168     46,272   (10,104) (12.3%)
11/04/03       34,159     48,293   (14,134) (17.1%)
11/11/03       35,889     49,201   (13,312) (15.6%)
11/18/03       35,608     49,689   (14,081) (16.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/28/03       21,640     8,830    12,810    42.0%
11/04/03       24,132     9,703    14,429    42.6%
11/11/03       26,212    10,730    15,482    41.9%
11/18/03       32,034    10,356    21,678    51.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Ditto here as well...commercials are not making any new big
bets and keeping the number of long and short contracts 
relatively unchanged.  Small traders appeared to have scaled
back on longs and inched up their shorts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/28/03       20,504    11,366    9,138      28.7%
11/04/03       21,756    11,903    9,853      29.3%
11/11/03       20,209    11,660    8,549      26.8%
11/18/03       20,746    11,080    9,666      30.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/28/03        5,295     8,864   (3,569)   (25.2%)
11/04/03        5,099     9,160   (4,061)   (28.5%)
11/11/03        6,105     8,201   (2,096)   (14.7%)
11/18/03        5,655     8,607   (2,952)   (20.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


-----------------------------------------------------------------



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-30-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  NXTL, ZBRA

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bullish Play Updates:  FLIR, JCP
  Bearish Play Updates:  MCK

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     SIRI
  New Bearish Plays:     FCEL
  Bullish Play Updates:  JNPR, RAD, STLD
  Closed Bullish Plays:  HPC


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Nextel Comms - NXTL - close: 25.33 change: +0.06 stop: 23.00

As expected, Friday's shortened session didn't provide much in 
the way of trading opportunities in our new play on NXTL.  The 
attempted rally at the open was quickly reversed and the stock 
spent the remainder of the short session clawing its way back 
into positive territory, ending with a fractional gain.  The 
reversal from the early bounce should be no great surprise, as 
the stock is currently testing the upper Bollinger band ($25.27) 
and the top of its rising channel ($25.65).  Also recall that the 
$26 level was expected to offer some resistance, so we're 
sticking by our recommendation to buy a dip back near the $24.00-
24.25 area, with strong support likely to be found just below 
there as the 10-dma ($23.78), 20-dma ($23.86) and 30-dma ($23.51) 
converge.  Maintain stops at $23, wait for the pullback entry and 
then ride NXTL higher, as the upper B-Band and channel lines 
permit further upward movement.

Picked on November 26th at  $25.27
Change since picked          +0.06
Earnings Date              1/15/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    17.0 mln





---

Zebra Tech - ZBRA - close: 63.57 change: +0.41  stop: 59.98*new*

On holiday volume that was less than one sixth the average daily 
volume, ZBRA added to its gains Friday, closing at a new high.  
While we attribute the light volume to the holiday trading 
pattern, we also note that ZBRA printed a small-bodied candle at 
the top of its recent rise.  That type of candle hints that ZBRA 
may be due for a pullback, but any potential reversal signal must 
be confirmed by Monday's trading pattern.  If ZBRA opens below 
$63.00 on Monday, some traders might want to take at least 
partial profit.  We're raising our official stop to $59.98, just 
below the rising 21-dma, now at $60.00.   Some play participants 
might want to ensure that they now don't lose money on this now-
profitable play and set their personal stops at breakeven levels.  

Pullbacks and bounces from above the 10-dma might be appropriate 
for new entries in this well-performing play, but we're too close 
to our $65.00 target to consider new momentum entries on 
breakouts. 

Annotated Chart for ZBRA:


Picked on Nov 19 at  60.20
Change since picked: +3.37
Earnings Date:    10/23/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  618 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


FLIR Systems - FLIR - close: 34.46 change: -0.02 stop: 32.00

Traders looking for some excitement on Friday had to be 
disappointed with FLIR's 63-cent range on volume that failed to 
even reach 100K.  It was a throwaway consolidation session, 
leaving FLIR in much the same condition where we left it on 
Wednesday -- just below it's all-time high, but with daily 
Stochastics having been buried in overbought now for the past 7 
sessions.  It certainly feels like a bit of consolidation or even 
a mild pullback is due.  The strongest near support appears to be 
near $33, although there is the potential for a dip and rebound 
at $33.50 or $34.00, both areas where the stock has consolidated 
on the way up.  The 20-dma has now reached $32.50 and even on a 
sharp pullback, we're looking for that average to continue in its 
supportive role.  So it appears safe to raise our stop to $32.40.

Picked on November 23rd at  $33.90
Change since picked          +0.56
Earnings Date              1/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       422 K





---


J.C. Penney Co. - JCP - close: 24.88  change: -0.20  stop: 23.49*new*

Friday opened with CNBC commentators mentioning that retailers 
were being stingy with the sales this year, hoping to keep 
margins high in what is expected to be a strong holiday season.  
In return, investors proved stingy with their purchases of 
shares, with Friday's volume about one-fourth average daily 
volume.  Without volume to support prices, JCP dropped even 
though the S&P Retail Index $RLX gained.  

Although the drop did not prove deep, it did produce a bearish 
candle to follow Tuesday's and Wednesday's doji.  That completes 
a bearish reversal signal.  We notice that JCP followed a nearly 
identical pattern in October, producing first two doji and then a 
bearish candle before it pulled back.  It's possible that JCP may 
be ready for another pullback, this one from an equal high.  If 
so and if oscillators also roll down, then those oscillators 
signal bearish divergence with price.  They would be rolling down 
from lower highs while price rolled down from equal highs.  

Supporting moving averages have edged closer underneath the 
current price than they had in October, so we think it likely 
that any potential pullback will be shallower than October's.  
We're raising our stop to $23.49, just below the 50-dma.  If JCP 
bounces from above the 30-dma(black), as we hope it will do, new 
entries could be taken on such bounces.  Verify that volume 
expands, however, before entering new positions.

Annotated Chart for JCP:


Picked on Nov 21 at  24.45
Change since picked: +0.43
Earnings Date:    11/11/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  2.5 million




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


McKesson Corp. - MCK - close: 29.20 change: +0.25 stop: 30.30

One week after initiating coverage, our MCK play is still 
trolling along above the $28 breakdown trigger and struggling to 
break above the dual resistance offered by the 10-dma ($29.10) 
and 20-dma ($29.18).  MCK edged above that resistance on Friday 
and should that fractional breakout hold on Monday, then the 
bulls will most likely take a run at stronger resistance at $30.  
Fortunately, we're still waiting for our trigger to be hit and if 
the stock continues higher from here then it will simply be a 
potential play that never materialized.  We need to wait for the 
breakdown before playing.  Aggressive entries can be taken on the 
initial drop under support, while more conservative traders will 
want to wait for a subsequent failed rebound to roll over below 
$28.50.

Picked on November 23rd at  $28.26
Change since picked          +0.94
Earnings Date              1/22/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    1.71 mln






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 2.08 chng: +0.10 stop: 1.85

Company Description:
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. broadcasts digital-quality audio from 
three orbiting satellites throughout the continental United 
States.  The company delivers 60 streams of 100% commercial-free 
music in virtually every genre and over 40 streams of news, 
sports, weather, talk, comedy, public radio and children's 
programming.  Sirius' broad range of music, as well as its news, 
sports and entertainment programming, is not available on 
conventional radio in any market in the United States.  The 
company holds one of only two licenses issued by the Federal 
Communications Commission (FCC) to operate a national satellite 
radio system.  Its satellite radio system consists of its FCC 
license, satellite system, national broadcast studio, terrestrial 
repeater network and satellite telemetry, tracking and control 
facilities. 

Why we like it:
The Satellite Radio industry is a very small playing field, with 
the only players being SIRI and XMSR.  While XMSR is clearly the 
strongest of the two stocks, SIRI appears poised to play catch up 
and is just starting to move out of the base it built from August 
2002 through May of 2003.  The first significant breakout was in 
early June with the breakout over $1.50 resistance.  After a long 
consolidation above that resistance-turned support, the stock 
managed to break out again, surging as high as $2.68.  Over the 
past 6 weeks, the stock has once again been drifting lower, and 
this pullback has taken the form of a bear flag.  The rebound off 
the $1.90 area last week got a serious shot of adrenaline on 
Friday, with the stock gaining better than 5% to end just below 
the upper bound of the descending channel.  A breakout above the 
top of that pattern should set up a fresh bullish move and 
potentially a test of the October highs near $2.65-2.70.  

The PnF chart is starting to really look bullish as well, with 
the May/June breakout giving a fresh Buy signal and a bullish 
price target of $5.88.  We don't expect a breakout to that 
altitude anytime soon, but a rally up to the $2.70 level 
certainly looks feasible.  In addition to the top of the flag 
($2.11) offering resistance, there is also potential resistance 
at the 50-dma ($2.15) and the 20-dma ($2.17).  We're going to use 
a $2.12 entry trigger on the play just above the top of the flag.  
That initial breakout can be used for aggressive entries, 
although more conservative traders may want to wait for price to 
move above $2.18, clearing moving average resistance before 
playing.  There's no question this is an aggressive play, so 
we're going to use a wider stop, setting it initially at $1.85, 
just under last week's intraday low.  Note that XMSR broke out 
strongly on Friday, reaching its highest level since late 2000.  
That breakout was probably partially responsible for the strength 
in SIRI, so we would recommend monitoring XMSR for continued 
signs of strength to confirm upside action in SIRI.

Annotated Chart of SIRI:


Picked on November 30th at   $2.08
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    49.8 mln




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------



FuelCell Energy - FCEL - close: 13.46 change: -0.30  stop: 14.85

Company Description:
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (www.fuelcellenergy.com), based in Danbury, 
Connecticut, is a world-recognized leader for development and 
commercialization of high efficiency fuel cells for electric 
power generation. The Company's Direct FuelCell(R) (DFC(R)) 
technology eliminates external fuel processing to extract 
hydrogen from a hydrocarbon fuel. This results in a product whose 
cost, combined with high efficiency, simplicity and reliability, 
results in product advantages for stationary power generation. 
The Company has been developing DFC technology for stationary 
power plants with the U.S. Department of Energy through the 
National Energy Technology Laboratory, whose advanced fuel cell 
research program is focused on developing a new generation of 
high performance fuel cells that can generate clean electricity 
at power stations or in distributed locations near the customer, 
including hospitals, schools, data centers and other commercial 
and industrial applications.  Its wholly owned subsidiary, Global 
Thermoelectric Inc., is a leader in the development of solid 
oxide fuel cell (SOFC) products and the world's largest 
manufacturer and distributor of thermoelectric stationary power 
generators for use in remote locations. (Source:  Company Press 
Release)

Why We Like It:
We're in favor of clean electricity and high efficiency, but the 
technical considerations in this chart prompted our interest.  In 
early November, shortly after FCEL's shareholders agreed to the 
acquisition of Global Thermoelectric, FCEL filed SEC form 8-K, 
and FCEL and Enbridge agreed to a distribution pact, FCEL began 
dropping.  On November 19, Robert W. Baird downgraded the company 
from neutral to underperform, setting a $10.00 target.  The stock 
gapped down that day, dropping after a few days to a low of 
$12.72 before beginning to climb.  We were watching, waiting for 
the rollover we thought was inevitable.  That rollover might be 
beginning now.

Last week, FCEL climbed to test the linked 10 and 50-dma's. 
Wednesday's trade demonstrated investors' indecision about 
driving the price higher, as the day's trading produced a doji.  
Friday, price began declining beneath that 50-dma again.  We 
think it might soon roll down toward $10.00 and its 200-dma.  
FCEL has a P&F sell signal with an $8.50 downside target, so a 
test of $10.00 appears doable.  Because of expected round-number 
support at $10.00, we're setting our target just above that 
level, at $10.25.  Participants can enter at the current level or 
on bounces that roll down beneath the 50-dma.  Verify that volume 
stays low on such bounces.

Annotated Chart for FCEL:


Picked on Nov 28 at  13.46
Change since picked: -0.00
Earnings Date:    12/16/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  753 thousand





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 18.87 change: +0.20 stop: 17.20

The lack of action in shares of JNPR on Friday was no great 
surprise given the holiday-shortened session.  But the anemic 
volume didn't hold the stock back from inching ever closer to the 
$19 resistance level, which was the site of the highs in early 
October, as well as being the midline of the rising channel.  
Once JNPR breaks above that level, it should have the bulls 
setting their sights first on the $20 level and then the top of 
the channel, now at $21.  Intraday dips near the 20-dma ($18.25) 
still look good for new entries, while momentum players can enter 
on the breakout into the upper half of the channel.  Look for 
confirming strength from the Networking index (NWX.X), preferably 
breaking above $254 resistance before initiating momentum 
entries.  Maintain stops at $17.20, just under the 50-dma 
($17.35) and the lower channel line.

Picked on November 19th at  $17.69
Change since picked          +1.18
Earnings Date              1/08/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    10.2 mln





---


Rite Aid - RAD - close: 6.15  change: +0.04  stop: 5.75

When trading closed Wednesday, RAD had produced a gravestone 
doji, a possible reversal signal, and it had done so just under 
resistance.  We counseled play participants to watch for an open 
below the doji as that could be a first sign that the reversal 
signal would be confirmed.  RAD did open beneath the doji, but 
soon climbed.  It took out Wednesday's high, too, but didn't 
quite move above the new descending trendline before prices 
retreated.

While Friday's action did not constitute either the completion of 
a reversal signal or an upside breakout, price action did 
maintain the bullish slant of RSI and stochastics, and kept the 
MACD from turning down.  We wish Friday's candle had not had that 
small upper shadow that showed the pullback from resistance, but 
the candle was a strong one overall.  We're guessing that 
Friday's post-holiday volume did not prove strong enough to boost 
the price above that trendline, but the shadow was not long 
enough to create much worry. When volume returns next week, we 
hope to see RAD push higher again.

RAD's 0.65 percent gain fell just beneath CVS's 0.73 percent 
gain, but well ahead of WAG's 0.08 percent gain.  Those seeking 
new entries might watch for a break above the new ascending 
trendline.

Annotated Chart for RAD:


Picked on Nov 05 at   5.95
Change since picked: +0.20
Earnings Date:    09/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.5 million




---


Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 20.02 change: -0.30 stop: 18.49*new*

Friday, the World Trade Organization postponed the showdown over 
the steel tariffs imposed by President Bush, tariffs that the WTO 
could decide to label illegal.  Bush's administration asked for 
the postponement, raising speculation that the administration 
might take steps on its own to end or change the policy.  The 
uncertainty produced a harami or inside-day candle on Friday's 
trade, with the close just above $20.00.  As often happens when a 
stock produces a pattern that's indicative of indecision, the 
oscillators show a mixture of bullish and bearish 
characteristics.  RSI, always fast to react, hooked down, while 
stochastics curved up from inside territory indicating overbought 
conditions.  MACD remains flat, but appeared to be trying to 
curve up.  Volume usually drops during any type of consolidation 
pattern.  That tendency, coupled with the post-holiday weak 
volume, resulted in a day in which STLD traded less than 100,000 
shares.

We're raising our stop just below the rising 30-dma.  
Conservative traders might watch the 10-dma, exiting if STLD 
drops below that average and below Wednesday and Friday's lows.  
A downside break of an inside day usually predicts more downside.  
However, less conservative traders might elect to watch for a 
test of the rising 30-dma, expecting that average to support STLD 
as it did throughout October.  Those seeking new entries could 
enter on an upside break of the inside day.

Annotated Chart for STLD:  


Picked on Nov 12 at  19.78
Change since picked: +0.24
Earnings Date:    10/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  359 thousand





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


Hercules Inc. - HPC - close: 10.04 change: -0.36  stop: 9.99

Earlier in the week, we warned that HPC would likely retreat 
toward its grouped averages before making another attempt at our 
trigger, and did it ever retreat!  It retreated so far that it 
closed beneath its 200-dma and the ascending support of its right 
triangle.  This high-risk play was initiated on the hopes that 
HPC would retrace half its recent drop, but the pattern now looks 
to be broadening into a bear flag that looks ready to break down 
soon.  We're dropping this untriggered play. 

Picked on Nov 14 at  10.36
Change since picked: -0.32
Earnings Date:    10/30/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  864 thousand






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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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contact Contact Support.

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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-30-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of December 1, 2003
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of December 1st
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------


Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

DCI    Donaldson             Mon, Dec 1  After the Bell      0.56
MCDTA  McDATA Corporation    Mon, Dec 1  After the Bell      0.00


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ADCT   ADC                   Tue, Dec 2  After the Bell      0.00
BNS    Bank of Nova Scotia   Tue, Dec 2  During the Market    N/A
CHS    Chico's FAS           Tue, Dec 2  After the Bell      0.27
CPRT   Copart                Tue, Dec 2  After the Bell      0.16
JWa    John Wiley & Sons     Tue, Dec 2  Before the Bell     0.40
MBT    Mobile Telesystems    Tue, Dec 2  Before the Bell      N/A
NAV    Navistar Intl         Tue, Dec 2  Before the Bell     0.71
TSA    Sports Authority      Tue, Dec 2  After the Bell      0.14
V      Vivendi Universal     Tue, Dec 2  During the Market    N/A


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

CMVT   Comverse Technology   Wed, Dec 3  After the Bell     -0.02
MBG    Mandalay Resort Group Wed, Dec 3  After the Bell      0.62
NMGa   Neiman Marcus Group   Wed, Dec 3  After the Bell      1.16
PLL    Pall Corp.            Wed, Dec 3  After the Bell      0.18
SNPS   Synopsys              Wed, Dec 3  After the Bell      0.41
UU     United Utilities      Wed, Dec 3  Before the Bell      N/A


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

BTH    Blyth Inc.            Thu, Dec 4  Before the Bell     0.72
DLM    Del Monte Foods       Thu, Dec 4  -----N/A-----       0.18
DG     Dollar General Corp.  Thu, Dec 4  -----N/A-----       0.20
NSM    National SemiconductorThu, Dec 4  -----N/A-----       0.32
PFP    Premier Farnell Plc   Thu, Dec 4  Before the Bell      N/A


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

ABS    Albertson's           Fri, Dec 5  Before the Bell     0.36

----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

NFI     NovaStar Financial, Inc   2:1      Dec   1st   Dec   2nd
MMSI    Merit Medical Systems Inc 4:3      Dec   2nd   Dec   3rd
MRTN    Marten Transport, Ltd     3:2      Dec   5th   Dec   8th
CRRC    Courier Corporation       3:2      Dec   5th   Dec   8th
ATA     Apogee Technology, Inc    2:1      Dec  11th   Dec  12th
CKFB    CKF Bancorp, Inc          2:1      Dec  11th   Dec  12th
TRID    Trident Microsystems Inc  3:2      Dec  12th   Dec  15th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

We're officially in the holiday season now and traders will be
looking for a Santa Claus rally by Christmas.  This week's 
economic reports are spread out on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Vehicle sales, ISM index, construction spending, productivity,
unemployment and more all come out this week.


==============================================================
                       -For-           

----------------
Monday, 12/1/03
----------------
Auto Sales (NA)         Nov  Forecast:    5.5M  Previous:     5.1M
Truck Sales (NA)        Nov  Forecast:    7.5M  Previous:     7.4M
ISM Index (DM)          Nov  Forecast:    57.0  Previous:     57.0
Construction Spndng (DM)Oct  Forecast:    0.5%  Previous:     1.3%


-----------------
Tuesday, 12/2/03
-----------------
None


-------------------
Wednesday, 12/3/03
-------------------
Productivity-Rev. (BB)    Q3  Forecast:    8.3%  Previous:     8.1%
ISM Services (DM)        Nov  Forecast:    64.0  Previous:     64.7


------------------
Thursday, 12/4/03
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)    11/29  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     351K


----------------
Friday, 12/5/03
----------------
Nonfarm Payrolls (BB)    Nov  Forecast:    150K  Previous:     126K
Unemployment Rate (BB)   Nov  Forecast:    6.0%  Previous:     6.0%
Hourly Earnings (BB)     Nov  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.1%
Average Workweek (BB)    Nov  Forecast:    33.9  Previous:     33.8
Factory Orders (DM)      Oct  Forecast:    0.6%  Previous:     0.5%
Consumer Credit (DM)     Oct  Forecast:   $5.0B  Previous:   $15.1B


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available




======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd          37.08    +0.87
E       Eni Spa (ADS)              85.32    +0.97
SNP     China Petro & Chem (ADS)   30.90    +1.10
ECA     Encana Corporation         36.73    +0.92
WLP     Wellpoint Health Network   93.49    +0.59
AMX     America Movil              25.64    +0.63


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

EVOL    Evolving Systems           17.10    +1.70


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

RMBS    Rambus Inc                 30.00    +4.75
MICC    Millicom Intl Cellular SA  79.75    +7.16


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

None


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

None





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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



DISCLAIMER

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